Nanaimo-Ladysmith By-Election For May 6th

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

145 out of 254 polls

Green 38.1%

Con 24.3%

NDP 22.8%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

149 out of 254 polls

Green 38.1%

Con 24.3%

NDP 22.9%

pietro_bcc

I wasn't aware of Manly being blocked by Mulcair, I thought it was just more of the everything that goes wrong for the NDP is Mulcair's fault trope I see a lot of.

Mulcair deserves a part of the blame here fair enough.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

155 out of 254 polls

Green 37.7%

Con 24.6%

NDP 23.1%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Best news of the night is that the NCA, the outright racist party(the PP and the Cons are the covertly racist parties) has won, at this point in the count, 30 votes.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

160  polls out of 254

Green 37.8%

Con 24.5%

NDP 23.1%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

pietro_bcc wrote:

I wasn't aware of Manly being blocked by Mulcair, I thought it was just more of the everything that goes wrong for the NDP is Mulcair's fault trope I see a lot of.

Mulcair deserves a part of the blame here fair enough.

He is probably laughing his head off tonight-it's one last bit of damage he gets to do to the party that took away the leadership job he thought he was entitled to.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

165 polls out of 254

Green 37.9%

Con 24.5%

NDP 23.1%

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

Best news of the night is that the NCA, the outright racist party(the PP and the Cons are the covertly racist parties) has won, at this point in the count, 30 votes.

More people are voting for the PC Party (Progressive Canadians) by accident.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

175 polls out of 254

Green 37.9%

Con 24.4%

NDP 23.1%

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

To those who know this riding...do any of you think there's any possible chance the last 79 polls will be any different than these results?

CBC projects Manly as the winner.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

178 out of 254 polls

Green 37.7%

Con 24.8%

NDP 22.7%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

180 out of 254 polls

Green 37.7%

Con 24.7%

NDP 22.8%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

195 out of 254 polls

Green 37,5%

Con 24.6%

NDP 23.2%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

200 out of 254 polls

Green 37.3%

Con 24.9%

NDP 23.1%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

203 polls out of 254

Green 37.1%

Con 25.1%

NDP 23.1%

jerrym

Congratulations to Manly. However, I sadly think the Cons are the biggest winners. 

The Liberals with 11% of the vote will finish fourth. While a byelection often goes against the government, this loss is highly problematic because it confirms the trajectory of the polls for the Liberals and the gaping margin between them and the Cons. It also means they are likely to lose a significant part of the corporate donations in the next quarter that go whichever of the two governing parties is in power because that party can immediately benefit them. The tilt towards the Cons in donations will grow even larger as the election approaches.

Coming along with the provincial losses over the last two years, this also weakens the Liberal argument that they are the automatic alternative if you want to beat the Cons in a particular riding. Trudeau could have avoided this problem by simply not calling this by-election in the hopes of weakening the NDP. The end result is he has likely increased the number of ridings where there will be a growth in the Green vote, but since in the overwhelming number of ridings the Greens are coming from way behind, this is likely to increase the number of Liberal and NDP losses to a much greater extent than any Green gains, possibly leading to a large Con victory. 

The Greens, NDP and Liberals are all likely to proclaim new bold green policies as climate-change related flooding and the upcoming wildfire seasons are likely to further reinforce the fact that we are living in a new environmental paradigm. Failure to do so is going to leave the field open to the other two parties. The Cons of course will only have to say they have a plan (just like Nixon and his 1968 Vietnam plan) without any meaningful details and for most of their supporters that won't even be necessary.

 The NDP needs to take the initiative on the Canadian Green New Deal that came out today instead of a piece of this and piece of that approach that it ran in the last election. Over 60 organizations, including United Steel Workers, youth leaders, David Suzuki, the Canadian Union of Postal Workers, the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs, Greenpeace, Indigenous Climate Action, 350.org Canada, singer-songwriter Rufus Wainwright, Neil Young, K.D. Lang, William Shatner, Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, Naomi Klein, and Stephen Lewis, among others, supported the development of such a plan. 

A made-in-Canada Green New Deal could include:

• Shifting to 100 percent zero-emission and renewable energy sources.

• Retrofitting all existing buildings to the highest energy efficiency standards.

• Building clean, affordable, and accessible public transit, including high-speed rail.

• Building a more sustainable food system that ensures universal access to healthy food.

• Ensuring truly universal access to clean water and affordable housing.

• Skills retraining and a federal jobs guarantee for workers across the country.

A Canadian Green New Deal would create thousands of high-wage jobs from coast to coast to coast. It would be our opportunity to further reconciliation with Indigenous peoples and address the systemic inequalities faced by so many people living in Canada.

In Canada, we could kick-start this shift with public money we’re currently using to subsidize the economy of the past. If we began by simply eliminating corporate tax loopholes and ending all federal fossil fuel subsidies, we would free up $265 billion over the next ten years.

https://futureofgood.co/a-made-in-canada-green-new-deal/

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

210 polls out of 254

Green 37,2%

Con 24.9%

NDP 23.1%

Will probably stop posting these after 225 polls or so are in, since it doesn't look as though anything is going to be dramatically different in the rest of the returns.

Congratulations to Paul Manly...the NDP owes Bob Chamberlin a big apology for putting him through this when he was a flawless candidate and did nothing to deserve this outcome.  May the NDP learn lessons from this between now and October, the key lesson being:  THIS is what happens when you black exemplary human beings from seeing your nomination just because they challenge an unjust regime.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

220 out of 254 polls

Green 37.4%

Con 24.5%

NDP 23.5%

Debater

I think one of the things that hurt the NDP tonight was Sheila Malcolmson's opportunistic decision to resign her seat before she had even served one full term.  It's understandable if an MP has to leave early for family or health emergencies, but to quit a seat you've only been in for 3 years just to run for a seat at another level of government is bad form.  Malcolmson isn't the only MP who has done this, but I think it hurt the NDP.

As for the Liberals, they deserve to lose the next election after Trudeau's behaviour the past several years.  It won't be great to have Trump-lite in office and someone who won't do anything progressive on climate change or equality issues, but Trudeau gave Scheer the rope to hang himself.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

225 polls out of 254

Green 37.7%

Con 24.3%

NDP 23.5%

Looks like the only remaining suspense is whether the NDP will manage to eke out a second-place finish. 

Signing off.  

 

WWWTT

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
Singh could have called Manly into his office, apologized, admitted the wrong and allowed Manly back in to seek any NDP nomination he wanted.  Why they hell didn't he do that?  He had nothing to lose.

I think Manly had already committed to the Greens by then. Unless you're a completely opportunistic sleazebag, running for a political party takes a great deal of personal investment. Once you feel the need to switch parties to stay true to your principles, you're essentially walking out a door that has a one-way exit. You're correct that someone in the NDP could have reached out to him and apologized, but I don't think that would have made any difference anyways.

Agreed

Also want to add that Palestinian, foreign policy issues and imperialist support in general just sucked the life Out of the NDP last night. 

Will Jag react positively or keep pretending to ignore? Hard to say. 

NDP are at the crossroads now for sure! I doubt they’ll lose party status, but to be on the safe side I’ll add the question mark?

Looks like Scheer will be the the next PM of Canada come October (but maybe we need more than this bi election to make that call?)

 

 

josh

Poetic justice after what the NDP did to Manly. As the party continues to drift aimlessly.

nicky

There are some “Corbynites” who mindlessly blame TOM Mulcair for everything, just like they blame Tony Blair rather than examine their own weaknesses.

I very much doubt whether The NDP would have done neatly so badly if Tom Mulcair were still the leader.

Even at the end of the 2015 campaign his favourables were still robust, roughly as good as Trudeau’s. People voted for the Liberals to beat Harper because the Liberals emerged as the alternative. They did not vote against TomMulcair for whom they maintained a very high level of respect.

if he were the leader today he would look like a giant next to the pygmies who now lead our federal parties. He would be dominating in Quebec. The Greens would have little room for growth.His MPs wd not be leaving in droves. It would be a very different political climate.

josh

Good one, Nicky.  Very funny. 

He would be doing better in Quebec, but would not be dominating.  It was his leadership that ended that temporary dominance.  His presence would have no impact on the Greens.  In fact, he is directly responsible for Manly winning this riding.

NDPP

Delighted to hear of Paul Manly's win and even more so of the NDP loss. NDP partisans might wish to avoid putting off any longer addressing their party's disgusting continuing support for warcrimes and Apartheid Israel. The time for denial and averting your eyes is over.

"Israel has destroyed the Palestine National Library, the Azhar Library, and the National Cultural Center (below), destroying with them tens of thousands of books and historical documents."

https://twitter.com/Fenazs/status/1125141795766190083

 

NDP Blocks Paul Manly, Son of Former MP From Seeking 2015 Bid in BC

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-blocks-manly-son-of-former-mp-from-...

"Stance on Israeli and Palestinians concerns NDP."

No progressive Canadian should vote for any pro-Zionist party which supports Apartheid Israel and its genocide of Gaza and Palestine.

Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

It raises real questions about whether the NDP can elect much of anyone in the next election.  The caucus might well be down to Niki Ashton, Svend Robinson and Charlie Angus.

and Jenny Kwan

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

There are some “Corbynites” who mindlessly blame TOM Mulcair for everything, just like they blame Tony Blair rather than examine their own weaknesses.

I very much doubt whether The NDP would have done neatly so badly if Tom Mulcair were still the leader.

Even at the end of the 2015 campaign his favourables were still robust, roughly as good as Trudeau’s. People voted for the Liberals to beat Harper because the Liberals emerged as the alternative. They did not vote against TomMulcair for whom they maintained a very high level of respect.

if he were the leader today he would look like a giant next to the pygmies who now lead our federal parties. He would be dominating in Quebec. The Greens would have little room for growth.His MPs wd not be leaving in droves. It would be a very different political climate.

But c'mon, nicky, you WOULD have to admit that what happened last night proves that Mulcair's insistence on blocking candidates who even LOOK left-wing or willing to commit truth about what Israel does to the Palestinians was a world-historical blunder.  If he hadn't stopped Manly from seeking the NDP nomination in Nanaimo-Ladysmith in 2015, what happened last night would never have happened.

No significant group of voters were won over by Mulcair's irrational hatred of the Left and none ever would have been.

I'll assume you'll join everyone who would now call for the resignation of the entire NDP Executive Council.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And there is no way that anyone could drag his party down from second place to third place in one election-after starting that election with the party in the lead-and ever be capable of leading that party to any significant gains in any election after that.  If you inherit a party that is the Official Opposition, you are a failure as leader if it doesn't at least remain Official Opposition in the election you lead it through-and yes, nicky, I'd have said the same thing about Corbyn if he had done that to Labour in 2017 instead of leading it to the same vote share Tony Blair received in 1997.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

When the country was reeling from massive cuts in social benefits, the weakening of the labour movement, the climate crisis, and the refusal of the government of the day to address the issue of missing and murdered FN women, why the HELL did Mulcair spend his days in the house, instead of centering THOSE issues, yammering on and on and on about...a trivial corruption scandal involving a powerless, irrelevant Conservative senator, an issue none of the voters cared about  which played no role in any public policy decision, and which made no meaningful difference in anybody's life?

Mulcair COULD have used his tenure as leader making a case for why social democracy was the sensible, practical choice.  He refused to even try.  His approach was the approach the NDP Executive Council ALWAYS pushes for-assume the party can't win the argument, assume that voters never change their minds unless they change them to move further right, assume that it's impossible to turn non-voters INTO voters.  The party has held to that approach, without deviation, since 1961 and there's never been a damn thing to show for it.  That approach prevented the NDP even from making a significant breakthrough in the Sixties and early Seventies, at a time when the polls the voters were swinging sharply to the Left on the issues.  

Why stay with what they know NEVER works? 

Policywonk

This is just one constuency, coloured by the fact that Manly has a long activist history and the back-story on his being denied an opportunity to run for the NDP nomination. However it is not impossible that based on this result and the PEI election the Greens could surpass the NDP as the third party federally in this election, and pick up a number of seats in BC and possibly elsewhere. It is interesting how many former Liberals and NDP members (and candidates) have switched. 

NorthReport

Party / 2015 / 2019

Greens / 19.8% / 37.3% / Up 17.5%

Cons / 23.4% / 24.8% / Up 1.4%

NDP / 33.2% / 23.1% / Down 10.1%

Libs / 23.5% / 11% / Down 12.5%

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
As for the Liberals, they deserve to lose the next election after Trudeau's behaviour the past several years.  It won't be great to have Trump-lite in office and someone who won't do anything progressive on climate change or equality issues, but Trudeau gave Scheer the rope to hang himself.

Wow, that is an indictment of the Liberal party if I ever heard one. The one saving grace in all of this is that Scheer is a totally incompetent leader unlike Harper, and I suspect that he'll fall from grace pretty quickly once he's in the spotlight and has to make decisions.

Pondering

Ken Burch wrote:

When the country was reeling from massive cuts in social benefits, the weakening of the labour movement, the climate crisis, and the refusal of the government of the day to address the issue of missing and murdered FN women, why the HELL did Mulcair spend his days in the house, instead of centering THOSE issues, yammering on and on and on about...a trivial corruption scandal involving a powerless, irrelevant Conservative senator, an issue none of the voters cared about  which played no role in any public policy decision, and which made no meaningful difference in anybody's life?

Mulcair COULD have used his tenure as leader making a case for why social democracy was the sensible, practical choice.  He refused to even try.  His approach was the approach the NDP Executive Council ALWAYS pushes for-assume the party can't win the argument, assume that voters never change their minds unless they change them to move further right, assume that it's impossible to turn non-voters INTO voters.  The party has held to that approach, without deviation, since 1961 and there's never been a damn thing to show for it.  That approach prevented the NDP even from making a significant breakthrough in the Sixties and early Seventies, at a time when the polls the voters were swinging sharply to the Left on the issues.  

Why stay with what they know NEVER works? 

It did work for Layton. I think he could have beaten Trudeau. Layton had strong political instincts and would have moved farther left with the times. 

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