NDP - "4 Years Ago Justin Trudeau Was In 3rd Place"

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Mighty Middle
NDP - "4 Years Ago Justin Trudeau Was In 3rd Place"

That is their new talking point, Trudeau was in 3rd place four years ago and he became Prime Minister. So anything can happen in an election campaign.

Don't count us out! say the NDP

 

bekayne

Mighty Middle wrote:

That is their new talking point, Trudeau was in 3rd place four years ago and he became Prime Minister. So anything can happen in an election campaign.

Don't count us out! say the NDP

 

Also: candidates don't matter.

Misfit Misfit's picture

And visiting the provinces doesn’t matter. He had nothing else to do as leader until his by-election win this year to get to know the people across the country and make himself known and visible. But he didn’t. What did he actually do with his time?!?

JeffWells

Four years ago the NDP was in first place.

You'd think the big brains at HQ wouldn't want to remind us.

Mighty Middle

JeffWells wrote:

Four years ago the NDP was in first place.

and Trudeau was third - Now the NDP are in third and Trudeau was in first, so anything can happen!

That is what the NDP keeps saying. Don't count us out, like people counted out Trudeau 4 years ago.

WWWTT

One thing I know for sure is the imperialist corporate media’s hatred of the NDP!

When the liberals were in 3rd four years ago, Justin was getting non stop coverage like as if the liberals were in first!

The NDP are in third for two reasons. Jagmeet isn’t white and the imperialist corporate media’s hatred of the NDP

I keep repeating the same thing here, democracy is an imperialist invention that guarantees corporate control

Debater

There are a few differences.  Trudeau was in 3rd during the Late Spring/Summer of 2015, but he had been in 1st for about 2 years between Spring 2013-Spring 2015.

Plus the Liberals had gained ground in byelections (eg. taking back Labrador in 2013 and Trinity-Spadina in 2014).

By contrast, the NDP has lost seats over the past year (eg. Outremont, Nanaimo-Ladysmith,etc.) and been in 3rd the whole time since the last election.

pietro_bcc

Yep, the only reason the NDP was in first going in to the 2015 election was because they got a bump from the Alberta NDP winning provincially. Before that Alberta election the NDP was in 3rd, people often forget this fact and act as if the NDP was in 1st for years, when in fact they were 1st for a few months.

jatt_1947 jatt_1947's picture

He was busy getting married lol.

This fucker is seriously making me believe that a Canada where being a Sikh isn't controversial is possible..

 

I still don't care for politics or democracy but :shrug:

 

Also, this isn't about white or not.
Tbh, a White Sikh would have gotten it worse for 'betraying' the Mainstream Canadian society, and a black christian for example may well be a shoe-in for PM (allows people to wash their guilt like with Obama).

nicky

Debater s right that Alberta boosted the NDP in the polls by mid 2011.

but he is wrong that that is the only reason. The party had maintained a pretty solid 22-23 % for a couple years. From Feb to April 2015 it ate considerably into the Liberal vote and rose to the high 20s even before Alberta. That was largely over its principled opposition to C-25 as the Liberals folded.

i know many Babblers have nothing good to say about Tom Mulcair but the fact remains he was highly respected over his performance as opposition leader. Until the last stage of the election campaign his approval rating was higher than any other leader.

Pondering

Harper was also highly respected. I wouldn't want him as leader either. Mulcair wasn't and isn't on the left. If you want another Liberal leader I'm sure you can find one. 

brookmere

4 years ago it was close to a 3 way tie with the Liberals trailing by little more than the margin of error. Today it's a 2 way tie with the NDP getting about 1/2 the support of the Liberals or Conservatives. The two situations are in no way comparable.

JKR

brookmere wrote:

4 years ago it was close to a 3 way tie with the Liberals trailing by little more than the margin of error. Today it's a 2 way tie with the NDP getting about 1/2 the support of the Liberals or Conservatives. The two situations are in no way comparable.

I think this is a good summary of current polls.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP needs to poll in its normal 18% to 20% range however that will require Jagmeet catching on with young people, especially in the cities. Unfortunately Justin has made cynics out of a whole generation of first time voters, so it remains to be seen whether they will just stay at home or switch their votes to some other party.

Debater

It's not the national numbers that are the big issue -- it's the regional numbers.

The NDP's national numbers are not so bad (except in the EKOS poll).  But the regional numbers in all the pollsters agree that the NDP is in 4th/5th in Quebec and usually 3rd in British Columbia, 4th in Atlantic Canada and 3rd in Ontario.  That's the problem.

That's what happened to the Liberals in 2011.  When a party trails in every region it becomes a huge problem --- even if the National numbers may still be somewhat okay.

Popular vote can also be misleading as we saw for Hillary Clinton in 2016.  The National polls were accurate that Hillary would beat Trump.  It was the regional weaknesses (eg. losing long-time Democratic states in the Midwest like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that prevented her from winning the Electoral College.

swallow swallow's picture

Quebc Solidare did well with 16% (after catching on with young people). But yes that was with some regional strengths. The NDP still has that in northern Ontario, parts of Vancouver and Vancouver Island, very downtown Toronto and Montreal. Not much elsewhere. But campaigns can change things, and Singh may catch on as Masse and Nadeau-Dubois did.