NDP blows past the 20% support level for 1st time since October. Lookin' good Jagmeet!

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NorthReport
NDP blows past the 20% support level for 1st time since October. Lookin' good Jagmeet!

Conservative 38% +7%

Liberal 33% -5%

NDP 21% +1%

Justin Trudeau would lose if an election were held tomorrow, India trip a symptom of shift in mood

https://globalnews.ca/news/4058984/justin-trudeau-india-trip-ipsos-poll/

WWWTT

“Blows past”?????

And if the NDP had 22% I wonder what kind of adverbs would have been strung together to commemorate such an achievement?

WWWTT

Dp 

R.E.Wood

And according to that poll the Conservatives would win a majority government, and Scheer would be PM... I don't see anything to cheer. 

Gonzaga

I wonder if any Liberals are having second thoughts about dumping election reform, eh? It's not actually too late either.

Rev Pesky

And we have a fine example of PR voting from the recent German elections. There is now a coalition between the conservative Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party (after six months of negotiating).

In Canada that would translate into a more or less permanent Liberal/Conservative coalition government. Remind me why that would be so much better than what we have now. 

 

JKR

Because many more Liberals voters prefer the NDP over the Conservatives, if the Liberals foolishly formed a coalition with the Conservatives, very many left of centre voters would never vote for the Liberals again and switch their vote to the NDP.

Also, the situation in Germany would be akin to the NDP and Conservatives forming a coalition.

Pondering

JKR wrote:
Because many more Liberals voters prefer the NDP over the Conservatives, if the Liberals foolishly formed a coalition with the Conservatives, very many left of centre voters would never vote for the Liberals again and switch their vote to the NDP.

Also, the situation in Germany would be akin to the NDP and Conservatives forming a coalition.

And Conservatives are in the driving seat and they didn't have a government for six months and the equivalent of the NDP is losing support because they teamed up with the Conservatives. 

I'm not saying they are worse off but they certainly aren't better off. In my opinion Canada is a pretty great country with some problems that would not be fixed by PR. For me to support PR I would need more than an ideological argument. I would need to believe it would result in concrete positive change. 

BC should help familiarize people with PR and its results. Maybe it will spread through the provinces first. 

mark_alfred

JKR wrote:

Also, the situation in Germany would be akin to the NDP and Conservatives forming a coalition.

I couldn't see a coalition between the Cons and the NDP.  But, possibly, I could see a confidence and supply agreement between the two, where an agreement to have a referendum on proportional representation would be in the cards.

WWWTT

After some thought I think North Report is on something here with this thread. Perhaps being stuck at 20% was a bigger problem than what I first thought and finally starting some momentum forward took a lot more than what I gave credit for.  It’s still early and most of the swing is between the conservatives and liberals, but if the NDP can stick to socialism and provide that clear path to it, they should fair well come 2019

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Rev Pesky wrote:

And we have a fine example of PR voting from the recent German elections. There is now a coalition between the conservative Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party (after six months of negotiating).

In Canada that would translate into a more or less permanent Liberal/Conservative coalition government. Remind me why that would be so much better than what we have now. 

 

The German system has at least made it possible to bloc the rise to political power(so far) of the AfD, the far-right anti-immigrant party.  With FPTP, the AfD's concentrated regional support in the eastern regions of Germany would likely have given it at least one or two false-majority governments in those areas.  Once AfD had that sort of power, there would be no chance of ever stopping it-it would simply keep surging in support indefinitely.

How would THAT be a better outcome?

 

Were it not for the pr elements in the German(and before that West German) electoral system, virtually every election would have produced a false majority government led by the Christian Democrats, and those governments would have been massively to the right the governments West and then unified Germany actually had.  It's extremely unlikely that any majority CDU government would ever have created anything remotely like the postwar social welfare state Germans enjoy, and it's hard to imagine any even center-left government being elected.

​Why would you defend FPTP when it never works for the good of working people and the poor and when it virtually never produces left-of-center governance?

​What's to like?

Pondering

Ken Burch wrote:

​Why would you defend FPTP when it never works for the good of working people and the poor and when it virtually never produces left-of-center governance?

​What's to like?

So you say. Germany doesn't seem terribly leftist to me and many of the PR countries seem to be in turmoil. Australia isn't leftist. Nor is New Zealand. 

If we were were currently under a PR system and it had worked as well as FPTP then I would favor sticking with it unless I could see benefit to changing. It's not that I see one or the other as inherently better. I just go for the status quo unless I can see that change will bring improved governance. So far I just see it as power people squabbling over how to divy up their power. 

Rev Pesky

From Ken  Burch:

The German system has at least made it possible to bloc the rise to political power(so far) of the AfD, the far-right anti-immigrant party. 

I'll just point out that Hitler's rise to power came within the German PR voting system. 

I also find it interesting that many on the left (here on Babble) keep claiming that the EU is the centre of ne0-liberalism, yet every country in the EU (except the UK) has some form of PR voting.

JKR

It seems to me that EU PR countries like Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, Iceland, Austria, and Germany already have most of the programs that the NDP are mostly unsuccessfully working for here in FPTP Canada. It also seems that the NDP may never be able to take part in government within our FPTP system. On the other hand, many supporters of FPTP argue that the NDP could just unite with the Liberals if they want to see their programs established in FPTP Canada.

NorthReport

My concern is who is going to get the leftovers and be the beneficiary in Quebec as the Bloc Québécois disentigrates and bites the dust

bekayne

Here are the NDP's numbers for the last 5 Ipsos polls:

2018-03-01  21%

2017-12-14  20%

2017-10-25  23%

2017-09-27  20%

2017-03-30  20%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

NorthReport

Which confirms the title of the thread. Thank you.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

JKR wrote:

Also, the situation in Germany would be akin to the NDP and Conservatives forming a coalition.

I couldn't see a coalition between the Cons and the NDP.  But, possibly, I could see a confidence and supply agreement between the two, where an agreement to have a referendum on proportional representation would be in the cards.

I could see this. All it would take is the same situation: the rise of a populist right wing party to the right of the Conservatives resulting in the conservatives moderating and the NDP relied on to keep the right wing populist party out.

For this to happen all you would need is the Conservative party to fracture. It would not get that much smaller either as the more moderate rump would attract back Liberals who had gone to the Liberals party when the Conservatives radicalized as reform.

It is very likely that Canada end up with a radical right party, a moderate conservative party, a Liberal party and NDP all close in support levels to each other (along with a couple minor parties including the Greens).

 

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

My concern is who is going to get the leftovers and be the beneficiary in Quebec as the Bloc Québécois disentigrates and bites the dust

You should be very concerned.

A possibility is a right wing populist party not about Quebec separation but one that would appeal to the fringe right. It has the potential to spread and get 20% nationally in a short time. Don't think it could not happen here.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

My concern is who is going to get the leftovers and be the beneficiary in Quebec as the Bloc Québécois disentigrates and bites the dust

You should be very concerned.

A possibility is a right wing populist party not about Quebec separation but one that would appeal to the fringe right. It has the potential to spread and get 20% nationally in a short time. Don't think it could not happen here.

The party you're describing would essentially a 21st Century combination of Preston Manning's Reform Party and Real Caouette's Creditistes, with elements of the Front Nacional in France and the Lega Nord in Italy.

Sean in Ottawa

Ken Burch wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

My concern is who is going to get the leftovers and be the beneficiary in Quebec as the Bloc Québécois disentigrates and bites the dust

You should be very concerned.

A possibility is a right wing populist party not about Quebec separation but one that would appeal to the fringe right. It has the potential to spread and get 20% nationally in a short time. Don't think it could not happen here.

The party you're describing would essentially a 21st Century combination of Preston Manning's Reform Party and Real Caouette's Creditistes, with elements of the Front Nacional in France and the Lega Nord in Italy.

Or similar to -- I am not thinking that we would get this from the past or other countries but certainly you could describe it this way. We are not immune.

You could also say a combination of the types that wanted something like Kelly Leitch (She lost not just becuase of racism but also being inept), Canada's Trump Admirers, the people who supported bans on religious clothing in Quebec and elsewhere, racists from all provinces, Christian and right wing fringe parties, right wing conservatives fed up with being told to be politically correct etc., etc., etc. ...

But sure they do look a lot like you would imagine your list to look like. I think the broad coalition of Conservatives includes people who are not sustainable in the same party.

NorthReport

Me thinks Jagmeet needs to spend a lot more time in Quebec.

With the pipeline protests frenzy about to hit the Lower Mainland of B.C. the NDP should have a very strong showing in BC in 2019. And who knows, perhaps Rachel  can even help deliver a few seats in Alberta. And then there is Saskatchewan and Manitoba as well.

mark_alfred

He was just on Tout Le Monde En Parle, and received good reviews.  Singh will be going to BC for a JagMeet and Greet on March 9 in Penticton with Richard Cannings.  http://www.ndp.ca/event-rsvp/4j4qx

NorthReport

Super ma!

If Jack can win Quebec, with a lot of hard work so can Jagmeet!

 

NorthReport

When was the last time the NDP was within 12% of the Liberals!

NorthReport

Hint: It was not in 2018!

NorthReport

Another hint: It was not in 2018 nor 2017!

NorthReport

And another hint: It was not in 2018, 2017 nor 2016 either!

Looking very good Jagmeet!

NorthReport

The last time the NDP was within 12% of the Liberals was October 16, 2015, which was within a week of the last election which was held on October 19, 2015.

Go to Quebec Jagmeet!

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Super ma!

If Jack can win Quebec, with a lot of hard work so can Jagmeet!

 

Jagmeet's handling of the budget was more balanced than Jack Layton's ever was. It was balanced and credible. He also went straight for the most important issues. It was a great display.

NorthReport
josh

The return of NDP leader cheerleading.  Last seen in 2015.

Mighty Middle

josh wrote:

The return of NDP leader cheerleading.  Last seen in 2015.

But more optimistic, as there is nowhere to go but up.