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NDP Leadership #92

NorthReport
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NorthReport
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NorthReport
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Ashton is not dropping and may well surprise a lot of folks.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/ashton-big-on-ideas-not-cash-for-...


NorthReport
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It certainly did not appear than anyone made any inroads into Mulcair's strong lead today.


Boom Boom
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I agree that Mulcair is clearly in the lead, but I'm unsure who is second, my guess would be either Nash or Ashton.


wage zombie
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My perception of the current levels of support (not my own preferences) are:

1. Mulcair

2. Nash

3. Topp

4. Dewar

5. Cullen

6. Ashton

7. Singh

I think Dewar will hold a lot of his support through to the first ballot but I don't think he has much room to climb, I think Cullen will overtake him.

Boom Boom, I'd love to find out that Ashton is 2nd.  I think she's great!  But it's hard to tell how much support she has.


Hunky_Monkey
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I'm hearing that Topp isn't in the top three... and Cullen has overtaken him in support. Seems to be the general consensus among the friends I have in a couple different campaigns.

Howard
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I will have to watch the debatee once it gets uploaded to the CPAC archives. I am interested in seeing how a French language NDP debate in Quebec City went down. Just even that idea alone was largely inconcievable a few years ago.

Skinny Dipper wrote:
Thomas Mulcair--positives and negatives:

Positive: He will change the style of language used in campaigning. He won't refer to "ordinary" Canadians.

Both positive and negative: He won't have a place for "Che" socialist NDPers. He will likely lead as a middle of the road leader with a few progressive points proposed in a platform. How's that for alliteration?

I don't know how this will affect your assessment, but it turns out Mulcair might be one of those "Che" types after all. Listen to minute 1:40 of this clip.

Tongue out


Wilf Day
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NorthReport wrote:

really hope Ashton does not drop out and she did quite well today. My hunch is that she will hang in there.

I have no doubt. She`s not a quitter. And she`s not afraid of anything, or she wouldn`t have tried to take a nomination away from a sitting MP at the age of 22 (and succeeded.)

NorthReport wrote:

Ashton is not dropping and may well surprise a lot of folks.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/ashton-big-on-ideas-not-cash-for-campaign-139145269.html

Including those who say she will go to Mulcair. She`s her father`s daughter; I`d say they`d both prefer Topp to Mulcair.


flight from kamakura
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a few further thoughts on the debate.

it seems fairly clear that the front-runners didn't really want to engage mulcair, the notion being that the more time he has to speak, the worse it is for them.  so nash and topp essentially tried to pick on dewar and cullen, those who stood the most chance of answering poorly (given low french aptitude).  cullen and ashton clearly sought to enhance their own positions by friendly exhanges with mulcair.  and singh seems simply to want to make it past the first ballot.

the real war was between dewar, topp and nash (and cullen somewhat) for depth of support.  they engaged each other fairly vigorously, all vying for the non-mulcair slot in the final ballots.

something that people haven't so far commented on is the "unilingue" remarks thrown dewar's way regarding angus, but also himself.  this is pretty much the worst possible thing they could have said to him and still got away with, and both nash and topp went there.  my guess is that dewar is too clueless to realize how bad that is, but as that attack percolates through, i'm pretty sure that dewar will continue to sink.

another thing is mulcair's closing, in which he basically spoke to the quebec audience directly.  on the one hand, he's subtly showcasing his credibility, on the other hand, it was the sort of speech that is designed very clearly to get into the race back into the news.  i love this guy.

finally, i was impressed with topp's attention to the rabble memes, he brought up exactly the things that people here have been mentioning, nailing dewar on the french, engaging mulcair on the tax issue, and generally putting himself forward as a scrapper.  nash, by contrast, seemed completely out to lunch - she said nothing of substance the entire debate, and finished with a speech almost as vacuous as dewar's.  cullen continues on as the bc version of pat martin and i'm very very glad that we have him in the party.


Howard
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flight from kamakura wrote:

something that people haven't so far commented on is the "unilingue" remarks thrown dewar's way regarding angus, but also himself.  this is pretty much the worst possible thing they could have said to him and still got away with, and both nash and topp went there.  my guess is that dewar is too clueless to realize how bad that is, but as that attack percolates through, i'm pretty sure that dewar will continue to sink.

I haven't watched the debate but Charlie Angus actually does have *some* French. Charlie Angus' riding is also over 30% francophone and over 40% bilingual. Did Dewar bring this up?

Actually maybe that would have been a mistake, because they are two not very bilingual MPs from two very bilingual ridings.


wage zombie
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I think Dewar tried to bring up Angus to give himself francophone cred.


flight from kamakura
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well, what happened was topp brought it up, saying something to the effect of "what kind of leadership candidate pre-ordains, during the leadership contest, another white male unilingual anglophone from ontario as deputy leader?"  dewar's answers were completely incoherent, point to topp.  and then nash grabbed onto it right after, i guess hoping to hammer the point home.  something tells me that dewar is polling well or something to warrant this sort of attention.

another funny thing was when the moderator identified topp as coming from bc, then, when he corrected her with "longueuil" (yeah right, since he lives in toronto, but anyway), she said something like "well, you've moved around so much, you'll forgive me."  a little thing, but not to his preference, surely.


wage zombie
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Ah, ok, that makes more sense.  I found the french feed in the middle of the exchange so didn't hear Topp's question.  I thought Dewar brought up some kind of "I may not speak bare minimum French, but my deputy leader arguably does" argument.


doofy
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My thoughts of the debate:

Cullen, Dewar and Singh's French was completely unacceptable. At first, I was disappointed that RDI was not covering the show, but considering who was there,it was probably a good thing. Francophones who are not aboslute political junkies would not sit through what sounded more like an Intro/Intermediate French course.

I was interested by Topp's strategy. He seemed the most agressive, attacking both Singh and Dewar quite personally. He was justified in his attacks (Singh probably hadn't read Topp's platform and definitely didn't listen to his answer; Dewar has indeed shown very poor judgement from the start), but wouldn't Topp be hoping to pick up some of Dewar's support on a subsequent ballot? If I were a Dewar supporter, I would not feel very warmly towards Topp, esp. since he has been attacking my candidate quite systematically. It's interesting that people say that Mulcair "does not play well with others", but it would appear that Topp  might be in the same category.

I agree w/ FFK that Nash performed poorly. The moment that stuck out for me was when she challenged Topp on not having a seat. She asked the very good question of whether he had received a commitment from a QC MP to resign. When Topp  fudged, Nash just went on about Layton having had municipal experience. She should have pushed harder, and yet she retreated. Seems she can't think on her feet, esp. in French.

Unsurprisingly, Mulcair showed the most sensitivity to QC . He understands that the NDP sympathizers inthe province  are left-of centre nationalists, who respect René Lévesque, a bit like English Canadians look up to Tommy Douglas. Mulcair was alone to mention Levesque and his "social-democratic" achievments; he also emphasized the NDP's nationalist crededntials in terms of defending the French language. NDP voters in QC are fundamentally different from supporters in the ROC and  Mulcair was the only one who proved that he can really adjust his discourse accordingly.

Finally, I wish the next deabte were entirely made up of one-on-one segments. The Topp-Mulcair debate today was good, but way too short. Maybe some QC TV show could invite Mulcair, Topp, Nash and Ashton on for a real discussion. (they are after all the only ones who have support from the QC caucus)

 


RevolutionPlease
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Could we refrain from comparing the female candidates in the male narrative. Vacuous? Those comments are telling. Some of us need to rethink how we do our politics. I'll be deciding late on this one.

flight from kamakura
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notice how i said "almost as vacuous as dewar".  did you watch the debate?  she finished with this "i'll be the uniter, i'll bring people together, i'll inspire people" speech that almost had me laughing out loud.  sure, you'll do that, if you've something interesting to say - so what's the interesting thing that you have to say?  textbook vacuousness.  only dewar was worse.  no sexism there.


RevolutionPlease
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Yes, I noticed. Sorry for picking your post ffk. I'm just looking for all of us to be more careful in our use of language. Especially, that we adopt a female-minority-progressive use of language. Are we screwed if we do that?

Wilf Day
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doofy wrote:
Mulcair showed the most sensitivity to QC . He understands that the NDP sympathizers inthe province are left-of centre nationalists, who respect Rene Levesque, a bit like English Canadians look up to Tommy Douglas. Mulcair was alone to mention Levesque and his "social-democratic" achievments; he also emphasized the NDP's nationalist credentials in terms of defending the French language. NDP voters in QC are fundamentally different from supporters in the ROC and Mulcair was the only one who proved that he can really adjust his discourse accordingly.

Odd that Topp wouldn't have tried to tie in Levesque too, since he certainly knows that; in fact lots of knowledgeable English Canadians equate Levesque with Tommy Douglas too.

By the way, although I have to watch the replay (I got interrupted), so this may not be the best example of Nash's French issues, but wasn't it odd to hear her say "langue Francais" and then correct herself "langue Francaise?" That's like a Grade 10 mistake?


KenS
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flight from kamakura wrote:

dewar's answers were completely incoherent, point to topp.  and then nash grabbed onto it right after, i guess hoping to hammer the point home.  something tells me that dewar is polling well or something to warrant this sort of attention.

I dont think that is why. My guess is that their canvassing tells them they have a significant number of second choices [or likely second] where Dewar is the first choice.

Intuitively, makes sense to me that Ashton, Nash, and Topp are likely to be in that position. Guessing [only], especially Topp, to the degree that organizer types tend to gravitate to both.

doofy wrote:

.... but wouldn't Topp be hoping to pick up some of Dewar's support on a subsequent ballot? If I were a Dewar supporter, I would not feel very warmly towards Topp, esp. since he has been attacking my candidate quite systematically.

I think it works something like this. The only thing that matters is people that rate you second [or close]. People who rate Topp highly, even if they have a clear higher choice, are generally not going to have the same negative view about his strategy in the debate. Those who view it negatively tend to be those who already did not rate him high.

 


Lou Arab
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I would be very interested to read the reviews of the french language media regarding how each candidate conducted themselves in French.  if any babblers were to post some links (with brief translation) would be most greatful.


NorthReport
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NorthReport
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NorthReport
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janfromthebruce
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French press person Jean Lapierre on twitter!

Twitter was saying the following - press - Jean_Lapierre Jean Lapierre
NDP debate: My personal rating for their fluency in French: 1-Mulcair 2-Topp 3-Singh 4-Ashton 5-Nash 6-Cullen 7-Dewar #cdnpoli

 

Lou Arab wrote:

I would be very interested to read the reviews of the french language media regarding how each candidate conducted themselves in French.  if any babblers were to post some links (with brief translation) would be most greatful.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!


NorthReport
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NorthReport
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lol

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/leadership+candidates+face+French+deba...

He managed nonetheless to attack Topp head-on on the fact he is not elected to the House of Commons and on his refusal to say which Quebec MP he is going to ask to step aside in order for him to run.

“When will you be able to attack Stephen Harper in the House?” Dewar asked.

Topp retaliated that this is a “sensitive question” that cannot be debated in public.

“Bringing that up in the debate shows Mr. Dewar’s lack of judgment,” Topp told reporters after the event.




NorthReport
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NorthReport
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vaudree
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From Previous thread:

I also think that Saganash would be a very good Foreign Affairs critic / Minister.

Agree with North Report about Ashton hanging in there. Liked her answer that every bad thing that Harper is going to do is going to affect her generation more - even noting that it is her generation dying in the Military. Missed the beginning because I was trying to find a feed that works.

Ashton talked about the middle east.

Mulcair's presumed lob ball to Ashton was to highlight her youth and inexperience. It was a question that does differentiate Ashton and Mulcair - age - and the generation from which the leader should be coming from.

Mulcair stop being a colony argument I think will go over very well - especially in Quebec. My mom pointed out the similarties between Mulcair's tie and the flag behind him. Hot pink tends to make makeup look like it is bleeding and/or to make skin flaws more pronounce - very very few people look good in that colour. Both Cullen and Singh's ties match the background behind the flags. Ashton looks like a militant - a fighter - in her black uniform.

Singh seems like he would be very good in Question Period - handles himself quite well in that portion. Canadian federation of sexual health sounds virile.

Topp I think was the big loser because he looks like he hasn't thought things through to all the implications - which makes him look simplistic. The charities question. Topp's response seems to remind me what the Tories say in QP when the NDP point out something about one of their bills.

This thread:
Charlie Angus speaks better French than Dewar in my opinion so I think that they were both waiting for Dewar to correct them on that "unilingual" thing - so they can pounce.

Doofy, Nash brought Jack up to say that Jack did not have a seat but had indicated where he would run - that Jack was very specific which riding he would try for. Topp says that he will run but not which seat. Dewar also seemed to be offering his seat.

 


Bill Davis
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Hunky_Monkey wrote:
I'm hearing that Topp isn't in the top three... and Cullen has overtaken him in support. Seems to be the general consensus among the friends I have in a couple different campaigns.

 

Agreed.  Kady O'Malley seems to think so as well, for what it's worth. Things can certainly change.  We'll see how the membership sign ups have gone.  Topp's campaign is top heavy and a bit hollow of supporters.  See if he can make up the difference with cash...if it's still coming in these days.

Mulcair's played a very safe campaign and man did I laugh at that soft-pitch to Niki.  Clearly got coached out of the Halifax performance and that ol' time Mulcair coming to the surface.  Peggy underperformed and gave weird answers like taking provincial jurisdiction over the canada health act.  Cullen said what he had to say, although his french teacher will have some words with him no doubt.

 

 


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