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NDP Leadership #93
February 13, 2012 - 1:53pm
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I think DSloth summed it up best. Dewar is trying to change the channel after his poor showing yesterday.
It would not surprise me to see Ashton end up ahead of Dewar bwefore this is all over.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/mulcair-on-...
Let's look at this poll again. If it's accurate which I doubt, it is a devastating blow to the Topp campaign.
The results of the poll have been weighted to accurately reflect the current (February 2nd) NDP membership numbers in every province and territory.
RESULTS:
First choice (decided voters):
Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Niki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
2nd choice (decided voters):
Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Niki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%
Jack Layton's mother has endorsed Brian Topp:
link
Looks like Topp is trying to change the bad news channel as well here.
To be fair I think Layton's mother endorsement broke before the Dewar announcement. Establishment support is really the only card Topp has to play.
Not looking forward to the tortured logic by which Eric Grenier assigns Layton's mother an endorsement point value.
LOL
Pathetic right-wing dribble
http://blogs.canada.com/2012/02/13/ndp-leadership-contest-40-watts-if-that/
Which leadership candidate will be next to favour with a "how well their candidate is doing" poll? LOL
And the msp are printing it out word for word. This repesents the concentration of the media that we have all been opposed to, where virtually no independent research is done. It is just propaganda that they use to fill the space around their ads.
The msp must not have nurtured many contacts within the NDP
Thank goodness for rabble.
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/02/12/ndp-leadership-candidates-put-frenc...
A comment kicked back from the closed last thread:
I think it extremely unlikey that Dewar in the race hurts us in Quebec. Most people will do all their thinking and evaluating AFTER we choose and they get their look see.
Being upset about Dewar is only for junkies- and only Dipper junkies at that.
I agree Ken, it would only hurt if Dewar ended up as leader.
If you caught Team Topp pushing back with their own "poll" numbers claiming they're leading the race witth 28%, you can be assured that number is effectively meaningless. They're just talking about the results of their phone bank which if you've ever done any canvassing you know is not in any sense a scientific poll nor is the purpose of a phone bank to accurately forecast support.
The Topp campaign has almost certainly conducted scientific polls of their own so it's a bit telling they didn't seek to push back with any of those (yet).
Topp's camp is tweeting that his canvas shows he is at 28%
I believe Jack's great-grandmother(s) would have endorsed Brian Topp as well. Tragically, the vagaries of life deprived them (and him) of that opportunity. All thinking Canadians should pay utmost attention to endorsements like these.
ETA:
That will no longer be possible once Bill C-10 receives royal assent.
LOL
Joe Cressy @joe_cressy
https://twimg0-a.akamaihd.net/a/1328900682/t1/img/twitter_web_sprite_bgs...); position: absolute; top: 9px; right: 12px; -webkit-transition-property: opacity; -webkit-transition-duration: 0.15s; -webkit-transition-timing-function: ease-in-out; -webkit-transition-delay: initial; opacity: 1; background-position: 0px -240px; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; margin: 0px; border: 0px initial initial;">- Close
Later today in an ebast to NDP members, we will provide further info on our poll. Including details on regional splits and raw data
Thanks to those who gave the updates on the most recent debate (I wasn't able to watch it myself). Nothing surprised me much except Nash's response to Dewar's question about healthcare user fees in Quebec (again, if I'm making a mistake on this, let me know -- I didn't actually see the debate).
I believe the Canada Health Act says federal funding may be withheld (partially or wholly) if a province engages in user fees. However, I recall hearing of some clinic in Quebec who challenged this at the Supreme Court of Canada and won, prompting Layton to argue against Paul Martin's promise of removing the notwithstanding clause from the Charter (IE, that there may be times when it's beneficial for the government to have this power). So, if I'm remembering and interpreting this correctly, then perhaps Nash was just being honest in the declaration that it was her hope that a properly run economy would engender a willing cooperation with the provinces to not go the route of healthcare user fees, rather than simply saying she is against this. I'm not sure though. So, if anyone has any clarification, do let me know, because I am a bit confused by this.
Add my voice to that. Again, most people aren't paying that close attention. Maybe caught a few headlines.
It might not be urgent that Dewar drop out of the race, considering the lack of publicity. But if Robert Chisholm had the good sense and class to, then Paul should too, lest we have to get a restraining order keeping Paul 100km from the leadership spot.
If anyone wants to start a petition, or has any other ideas, let me know.
Dewar has as much right as any of the other candidates to be in the race. I just wish that Saganash did not have to drop out.
The NDP membership will make the appropriate decision on March 24th.
You weren't the only one to notice:
Hopefully this puts some pressure on the Nash campaign to issue a clarification.
The NDP will get some coverage now - the msp think they have an issue they can tar the NDP with:
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/13/the-ndp-and-user-fees/
http://farnwide.blogspot.com/2012/02/speaking-of-boring.html
Yeah, but isn't that the point? If Dewar wins, the party is screwed. Isn't that enough reason to ask him to drop out now?
Every candidate has the right to run. It is up to the membership as a whole to decide if they will be "screwed" under a given leader.
If people are friendly enough to Dewar that he could possibly win on the last ballot, then I think any push-him-out-now campaign would not have a constructive effect on the campaign.
I also believe that Dewar has as much right as any candidate to stay in the race. And we have the right to make all the snarky potshots as we want towards the candidate who clearly does not meet the minimum qualifications for the job.
Dewar's French during the debate was terrible. "Peggy Nash, what you want do of medical user fees by Quebec government? What policy you support? All about us want to know your alignment." This is the about the equivalent of what he can manage.
I think the argument against Dewar running (subpar French) is as false as the argument against Topp/Singh (lacking a seat) or Mulcair (former Liberal) running. They're all NDP members, so they all can run. I'm sure that Dewar will continue to improve, just like Layton's French did.
On another issue regarding Dewar, from the second debate, I recall he said that his platform was completely costed out by some economist, when challenged about it by Singh (specifically regarding healthcare). But when I checked on his website, I couldn't see any evidence of this. It seemed more a collection of feel-good points to me, actually, then anything that took costs into account.
That's a bit sobering.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/census2011/Odds-and-sods-from-t...
NDP MP and leadership contender Paul Dewar today released results from a poll his campaign conducted.
First choice (decided voters):
Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Nikki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Saganash dropped out of the race last week. He didn’t throw his support to anyone but didn’t have very many first ballot votes according to this poll, so it won’t make a huge difference where his supporters move.
That Mulcair is leading is not that surprising. He is easily the most recognizable of all the candidates, particularly in Quebec. Some think he is the best choice because he is the most centrist and can continue to push the Liberals out of their traditional territory. He is also the only Quebec MP left in the race and some see him as the only way the NDP will hold onto to its support in Quebec in the next election.
But there is also an anyone but Mulcair movement, because some would rather any one of the other six candidates win over Mulcair. They think he is too centrist, too divisive, too angry, too something.
That Brian Topp is so far down the list is a bit more surprising. There are some who have said for awhile that Topp was no longer in the top four of candidates and this seems to prove it. Interesting because when Topp entered the race last September he was supposed to be unbeatable. He was first into the race. He started raising money and campaigning almost a month before Mulcair. With big endorsements from Roy Romanow and Ed Broadbent he seemed to be hard to beat. He raised more money than anyone else prior to Christmas. But if this poll is accurate Topp isn’t really in it at all anymore.
If the poll is accurate nobody is going to win on the first ballot. Not surprising when there are that many candidates in the race. So it’s just as important who people want for their second choice.
2nd choice (decided voters):
Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Nikki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%
The Dewar camp is not saying where the second ballot choices are coming from. ie: Dewar is the second choice of 21.2 per cent of NDP members. But if all those people are also supporters of Nash and Mulcair it won’t change his second ballot results much because well, they are going to make it the second ballot and almost certainly third, fourth and even fifth ballots as well, if they are required.
The front runners need to convince those who support Cullen, Topp, Ashton and Singh to move their way as their preferred choices drop of the ballot in subsequent votes. (The NDP rules stipulate the last place finisher or all candidates who receive less than one per cent of a vote will drop off each round. If this poll is accurate Singh would drop off first.)
Because the Dewar camp isn’t saying where the second choices are coming from, it’s impossible to really know who benefits from them. They obviously released this poll hoping to give Dewar’s campaign some momentum and prove he’s playing in the big leagues.
They also won’t release the provincial or regional breakdowns so it’s impossible to know where the support is coming from.
NO ONE is disputing that anyone can run for the NDP leadership. My point is that Dewar must know his French is atrocious, and surely he must be bright enough to relaize that if he wins, then the NDP could lose Quebec. If he is still running for the NDP leadership knowing full well that his French is atrocious, then he - and anyone else not fully bilingual and running for the leadership - deserves every negative epithet people may choose to throw at them.