NDP's Quebec strategy getting noticed in the media

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Unionist

KenS wrote:

As far as the optics go of voter choice goes, there is a category of people who because of sovereignty issues will never move from the Bloc, so they are not attainable or reachable for the NDP.

Québec solidaire is proving that a big slice of such a category can in fact be moved.

Quote:
Then there is another much bigger slice for whom sovereignty is important, but just one among many issues that matter, and the priorities change. And among those people, I rather doubt that it matters right now that the NDP is not talking up the Sherbrooke declaration or its content.

The NDP doesn't need to "talk it up". It needs ideas about how to actually implement it, to make Quebeckers' lives better within the federation. It also needs to ensure that Jack Layton never again does the about-face he did in January 2006.

 

Stockholm

I don't recall Duceppe demanding that the Clarity Act be repealed as a condition to support the coalition in 2008 - so i guess he doesn't give a hoot about the issue anymore either.

ottawaobserver

Touché!

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

I don't recall Duceppe demanding that the Clarity Act be repealed as a condition to support the coalition in 2008 - so i guess he doesn't give a hoot about the issue anymore either.

ottawaobserver wrote:
Touché!

Both these comments reveal the depth of incomprehension that risks killing the NDP's hopes in Québec. Tom Mulcair (forget about his stand on Israel for the moment) would cringe if you said anything like this in his riding.

Let me explain something to you. Duceppe is thrilled about the Clarity Act. It's more ammunition to prove that Canada will never recognize Québec's inalienable rights, and so separation is the only viable option. The Bloc, and indeed the nation of Québec, do not recognize the Clarity Act. We will never be bound by the Clarity Act. We have the right to self-determination, and it isn't subject to someone else (like, say, your) permission or blessing as to the quality of the question or the size of the majority.

If you haven't already heard this truth over the past decade or so, let me be the one to deliver the news to you.

The Clarity Act doesn't hurt the Bloc. It can only hurt the NDP, if it is ever stupid enough to retreat from the Sherbrooke Declaration and go back to Layton's pandering stand of January 2006, when he was more focused on Ontario votes than Québec ones.

Stockholm

The only thing that hurts the NDP (and just about everyone else in Canada) is any discussion of the Clarity Act whatsoever - whether for or against it. What the BQ would LOVE would be for some federalist party (ie: the NDP) to be stupid enough to reopen the topic and create a backlash in English Canada that would help create "winning conditions" for another referendum!

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

The only thing that hurts the NDP (and just about everyone else in Canada) is any discussion of the Clarity Act whatsoever - whether for or against it.

Now you're getting warmer. Make sure Jack hears that, loud and clear.

Quote:
What the BQ would LOVE would be for some federalist party (ie: the NDP) to be stupid enough to reopen the topic and create a backlash in English Canada that would help create "winning conditions" for another referendum!

Bingo! got it!

Now, go back to where I said that the NDP, if it wants to really consolidate and gain strength in Québec, should (among other things) come up with some creative ideas about how asymmetrical federalism, with a pro-worker, pro-people, pro-social democratic bias, can work to the benefit of Quebeckers.

 

Stockholm

No one cares about constitutional issues anymore NO ONE. have you noticed that Duceppe doesn't even talk about any of that crap anymore  - he's busy trying to get votes by demanding federal money for hockey arenas.

wage zombie

Duceppe doesn't need to talk about it.  They already own the issue.

Stockholm

He and Pauline Marois would rather have needles stuck thorugh their eye-balls than have to talk about the constitution and sovereignty and referendums etc...they know that every time they open their mouths on that garbage - they lose thousands of votes. Why do you think so many people in Quebec would apparently drop the PQ like a hot potato for some vague third party led by Francois Legault which offers the one thing everyone in Quebec seems to want - an alternative to Charest and NO MORE REFERENDUMS!

Unionist

Hey Stockholm. Please answer my question. Quit arguing your point. I've already agreed with you. I've told you what I think the NDP should be putting forward (not "constitutional issues"). What do you think they should be doing?

 

Fidel

I think what the NDP would gain on the swings(Quebec) with Quebec issues they would lose on the roundabouts(the west).

Better for the NDP to focus on Harper's mediocre economic recovery compared to 17 other rich countries, broken promises for transparency and accountability in government, and now the Tories' contempt of Canadian Parliament. Perhaps it's Harper's rope-a-dope, but that is effective opposition's decision to make. Personally I think it's just political conservatives being conservatives in Ottawa. They really do think they are above having to abide by colonial administrative law.

Constitutional wrangling is what the old line parties do in years in between elections when they have no real Canadian economic agenda, or when they are not conspiring to sell us down the Mississippi River to rich Americans. They know how to put Canadians to sleep and make some true majority of Canadians forget that we even have a federal government in Ottawa. They are very good at that game.

Anonymouse

Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
He and Pauline Marois would rather have needles stuck thorugh their eye-balls than have to talk about the constitution and sovereignty and referendums etc...they know that every time they open their mouths on that garbage - they lose thousands of votes. Why do you think so many people in Quebec would apparently drop the PQ like a hot potato for some vague third party led by Francois Legault which offers the one thing everyone in Quebec seems to want - an alternative to Charest and NO MORE REFERENDUMS!

The last provincial election was the first time that the PQ was able to advance its seat counts without discussing the twin issues of sovereignty/referendums. Unlike the 2 prior elections (3 if you recall that in 1998 the Liberals had more popular support than the PQ) where the PQ shouted about sovereignty from the roof tops and lost seats both times.

Krago

Anonymouse wrote:

Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.

Actually, Jean Landry was the Conservative candidate, not PC.  And he received 1% as an Independent candidate in the same riding in 2008, which doesn't indicate that he has a large personal following.

bekayne
Anonymouse

Krago wrote:

Anonymouse wrote:

Perhaps as a sign of the times, a former PC that got 32% of the vote in Richmond-Arthabaska in 2006 refuses to close the door to a possible run for the NDP one day in Québec.

Actually, Jean Landry was the Conservative candidate, not PC.  And he received 1% as an Independent candidate in the same riding in 2008, which doesn't indicate that he has a large personal following.

Landry is a PC. He ran as one in 2000 and says in the interview @ the link above that he has always been a PC not a Conservative, and that there is a big difference between the two.

Lord Palmerston

Anonymouse wrote:
Landry is a PC. He ran as one in 2000 and says in the interview @ the link above that he has always been a PC not a Conservative, and that there is a big difference between the two.

OK, but surely there's a bigger difference between NDP and PC than there is between PC and CPC.

Lord Palmerston

Not very promising.  I had heard the Lib candidate was quite weak - too bad to hear he is well ahead of Francoise Boivin.

Winston

More bullsh*t from the statistically-ignorant media: there's a 6.5% margin of error for f*ck sake!

They should not even be allowed to say the BQ is in the lead - the BQ is statistically tied with the Liberals!

 

Stockholm

THat Segma poll was done two weeks ago before the election was even called and before all parties had candidates. They did not recite the names of the local candidates either - just party names.

Anonymouse

The NPD continues to get irregular but positive coverage in the Québec press. Here is Mulcair pushing hard on the issue of economic development of Northern Québec. It seems like the NPD candidate in Manicouagan is proposing something similar to the Columbia Basin Trust (created by the BC NDP) to spur economic development in his region.

ETA: Mulcair raises expectations in Jonquiere-Alma: "I'm sure he [the NDP candidate, a long time unionist] will win." "He knows everyone"

Krago

Any word on how Jack did on Tout Le Monde En Parle last night?

Stockholm

I heard he did really well - but here a youtube of him on the show - judge for yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvY8804AKv0

Anonymouse

Stockholm wrote:

I heard he did really well - but here a youtube of him on the show - judge for yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvY8804AKv0

Thanks Stockholm. I found Layton kind of boring and he struggled with the back & forth in French. His French talking points appeared less rehearsed and as a result, at times, his responses lacked the well-roundedness and punch that they often have in English. That being said, his French is much better than Harper and Ignatieff's. His French has also improved since 2008 and for that he deserves some credit. Even so, he's now challenging Duceppe so I couldn't help thinking (while watching him) who a francophone Quebecker would prefer representing them, an anglophone former Quebecker with passable French and a better-than-average accent, or a person from chez eux that can really speak and keep up with francophones in their native language. Canadian francophones tend to be much more forgiving of anglophone leaders' French than anglophones are of francophone leader's English, but I still have that doubt.

 

I think what Layton can claim coming out of that appearance is that he did well for a Québec anglophone of his generation, particularly one that has made his career in Toronto. He also came across as serious, not funny, which is a good thing in a political leader. He also got some air time for some of his points and ideas, and generally speaking the hosts were quite kind to him. If Mulcair ever became leader, it would be interesting to see how he would perform in one of these settings. His French is certainly up to the task, but does he have the same warmth or sympathetic character as Layton?

Stockholm

I think Jack has a good line to use in Quebec. The BQ is just there to OPPOSE Harper. The NDP wants to REPLACE him.

Anonymouse

Hey Boom Boom, it sounds like not only is Randy Jones NOT the Liberal candidate in Manicouagan, but the Liberal candidate is an alleged racist that was a spokesperson for the Association for the Rights of Whites.

ETA: Maybe I should remove alleged. This sounds pretty serious.

Bärlüer

Yuck...

The candidate's name no longer appears on the PLC's candidate list [in French].

Anonymouse

Wow. The Liberals have gone two elections in a row now with seemingly racist anti-FN candidates.

ottawaobserver

I'm hoping Boom Boom is not answering you because he's too busy out working for Jonathan Genest-Jourdain up in Manicouagan! ;-)

We'll get your vote in your home riding, yet, Boom Boom !

Anonymouse

Three QC non-incumbent seats where I expect the NDP to be more competitive in 2010 than 2008:

Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval-les-Iles, Point-de-l'Île

Anonymouse

I don't know if this is a typo (e.g. meant to write Abitibi-Baie James...), I suspect it is, but in this article in Le Soleil, it says Mulcair has high hopes for the NPD to win in Manicouagan. The NPD is running an FN candidate there and the Liberal candidate just got dropped (see above) for his view on FNs. Only 14% of the population is FN (h/t punditsguide.ca) so an "FN vote" is not going to make or break any one candidate.

bekayne

Anonymouse wrote:

I don't know if this is a typo (e.g. meant to write Abitibi-Baie James...), I suspect it is, but in this article in Le Soleil, it says Mulcair has high hopes for the NPD to win in Manicouagan

According to the translation of the article, he's also "guaranteed" a win in Jonquiere.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-federales/201104/06/01-4387282-sondage-angus-reid-gesca-le-npd-bon-deuxieme-au-quebec.php

Anonymouse

There are letters to the editor attacking the NPD candidate in Jonquiere-Alma, so at least some people must think he (Claude Patry) has a chance.

Anonymouse

Beauport-Limoilou NDP candidate is all bravado link

"The aspiring NDP MP Raymond Côté is confident he can pull [the win] off"

and a much more modest Robin Aubin in Trois-Rivieres gives his spin on the poll results and says he hopes to see, 

Mulcair in the Mauricie again before the end of the campaign link

 


 

 

Beauport-Limoilou is a potential 4-way race in a seat weakly held by Conservative MP Sylvie Boucher, 

NDP received its provincial average score of 12%, it's best result for the Québec region, here

Trois-Rivieres is a potential 4-way race in a seat held by BQ MP Paule Brunelle

NDP scored well below its provincial average, with a score of 9% here, then again Mulcair is "guaranteeing" the NPD will win Jonquiere-Alma where it received less than 5% of the vote in 2008

 

Stockholm

Its hard to look at the results of the last election in a riding as any guide to what will happen this time if in the last election there was no campaign whatsoever.

Wilf Day

Anonymouse wrote:
Mulcair is "guaranteeing" the NPD will win Jonquiere-Alma where it received less than 5% of the vote in 2008.

I heard him on TV recently talking up Claude Patry. Remarkable.

"I've never seen such a natural," Mulcair said of Patry." "He is a pillar for us in the region."

Anyone know how real this is?

Anonymouse

If google is any indication, Claude Patry's nomination has created a firestorm, particularly in the local papers. This could get exciting.

ETA: And here's the infamous list of target ridings,

Patry + Mulcair + Gatineau (l’ancienne libérale Françoise Boivin), Hull-Aylmer (Nycole Turmel, l’ancienne présidente de l’Alliance de la fonction publique), Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (le leader autochtone bien connu Roméo Saganash) et Rosemont-La Petite Patrie (Alexandre Boulerice)

Anonymouse

Claude Patry sounds like the next Yvon Godin. Anyone that can dredge up some video or audio of the purported giant-killer will have my gratitude.

ETA: Here is a teaser

From the comments:

«[...] moi je suis comme un pitbull, je mords le bas de culottes et 
je ne lâche pas», déclare Claude Patry. 

Très bon citation

Translation: "me, I'm like a pitbull, I bite the bottom the of pants and I don't let go" declares Claude Patry. Very good quote.

and 

Une alternative tres intéressant étant donner que JP Blackburn--ne fait rien et croit que tout est gagné pour lui

 

Translation: "A very interesting alternative given that JP Blackburn -- does nothing and thinks that everthing's a done deal for him"

Is this it?

Fidel

Claude reigns!

Lord Palmerston

i thought Anne-Legace Dowson was going to run again in Westmount-Ville Marie...she was quite active on FB in terms of recruiting "friends" a few months ago.

Anonymouse

In Québec, the NDP is No. 2

This article is almost a carbon-copy of the one that started this thread. I feel like in Québec (and nationally) the Liberals are getting increasingly desperate. They've gone to insulting the voters again with "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives." It's almost the only argument they have left, and shows their contempt for democracy. I also never understood how the Liberals get to call themselves the party of national unity while they spent election after election tearing down the West and campaigning against the bogeymen of the prairies. I hope the Liberals get their just desserts and finish deep in the cellar in Québec. Go party of anglophones!

KenS

It might be a desperate strategy in Quebec. But nationaly its certainly not a desperate strategy, stampeding people away from the NDP. So far, the media has bought into it totally.

I dont know about in Quebec, but if you think its a desperate strategy nationaly, I question your judgement about the situation in Quebec. Although, from a distance, it does look like the Liberal strategy has no traction with anyone in Quebec.

Unionist

Lord Palmerston wrote:

i thought Anne-Legace Dowson was going to run again in Westmount-Ville Marie...she was quite active on FB in terms of recruiting "friends" a few months ago.

I was hoping she would, and I don't know the inside story, except that she appears to be very busy again in media matters (not CBC though as far as I know).

The new candidate is [url=http://www.facebook.com/pages/Joanne-Corbeil-NDP-Candidate-NPD/191201394... Corbeil[/url]. I don't know her.

Anonymouse

KenS wrote:

It might be a desperate strategy in Quebec. But nationaly its certainly not a desperate strategy, stampeding people away from the NDP. So far, the media has bought into it totally.

I dont know about in Quebec, but if you think its a desperate strategy nationaly, I question your judgement about the situation in Quebec. Although, from a distance, it does look like the Liberal strategy has no traction with anyone in Quebec.

Feel free to question my judgment :) I think it is a desperate strategy for the Liberals whether it is effective or not. It just says that the Liberals are completely out of tricks, and since the only thing they really care about is winning power, it is them getting down on their knees and making the last minute appeal. The word "desperate" is not my own. It is the way a Liberal strategist described it to me.

KenS

Some Liberal strategist will pour molten lead on any strategy the LPC chooses, if not several of them. So that counts for nothing.

I think maybe we could agree that "desperate" generally implies people doing something when nothing else will work. Desperate also tends to mean unlikely to work. IE, since nothing else works, what the hell.

It is a morally bankrupt strategy. But that doesnt make it desperate. Although myself and others have argued that the LPC shying away from taking on the Conservatives is a sign of weakness- and long term weakness at that.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

I'm not sure how many times the Liberals can go to the well with that holed bucket though, Ken.  I think that Jack may have blunted it at least somewhat (he said, mixing his metaphors) by proactively declaring that a real strategic vote is a vote for the NDP - even as the Liberal meme was just getting started.

Certainly the Liberal strategic voting meme has had diminishing returns election after election after election since its high point in 1993.

Anonymouse

The NPD's candidate in Riviere du Nord sounds pumped. The NDP finished second there in 2008.

NorthReport

Anonymouse

Where is Mulcair traveling to these days - that should give us an indication which ridings are in contention for the NPD?

Anonymouse

I get the sense he is spending time in Outremont these days after having made a trip to the Saguenay region for the announcement of three candidates.

Wilf Day

While Mulcair is modestly naming only five target ridings outside Outremont, The NDP's leading candidate in the Quebec City region, Raymond Cote, wants to expand the list: "he believes the 2011 vote will be marked by the election of the first New Democrat elected in the Quebec region. He gives himself the best chance of achieving this among the NDP candidates in the capital."

Another example of a 2008 star ("the only New Democrat in the region to get more than 6,000 votes") moving to a stronger riding. Maybe it will work?

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