Nope, I don't see it - I think narrow Lib or Tory majority; what is the matter with people?
Ok, so latest poll is out in the Free Press.
Quoting partially from the story:
"Meanwhile, the Liberals are making a comeback, jumping into second place with 26 per cent of decided voters compared with 19 per cent for the NDP.
The Green party is a distant fourth, with five per cent of decided voters. Twelve per cent of voters are undecided and five per cent refused to disclose their preference.
The Conservatives, with 48 per cent, have barely budged from the last federal election when the party earned 49 per cent of the vote in Manitoba.
The Conservatives are the preferred party of both men and women, across all age groups, education and income levels. They lead the Liberals in Winnipeg by 11 points and outside of Winnipeg have nearly three in five votes.
Probe vice-president Chris Adams said the Conservatives benefit from a strong rural base and the small-C conservative culture in Manitoba.
The NDP bumped the Liberals to third from second place in 2008, and a year ago, were slightly ahead at 22 points compared with the Liberals' 21.
The NDP gained mid-year while the Liberals flatlined. But in the last six months the NDP has dropped into third, and the Liberals are now in a clear second place, with a six-point lead over the NDP.
The Liberals appear to have regained some of the base they lost in 2008 under the unpopular leadership of Stéphane Dion. They had their worst showing in Manitoba in recent history in that election. The Liberals finished third in the popular vote and lost
But with the recent bump in the provincial polls and Kevin Lamoureux's win in the byelection in Winnipeg North last month, Manitoba has become a silver lining for the Liberals in 2010.
In particular, the Liberals have regained support in Winnipeg. A year ago, the Tories had a 17-point lead in Winnipeg with 43 per cent, versus the NDP's 26 per cent. The Liberals languished in third with 24 per cent.
The latest poll has the Conservatives maintaining their 43 per cent, but the Liberals are up 12 points to 32 per cent, and the NDP is down three points to 21 per cent.
The NDP did not have a good year.Longtime NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis resigned and mounted an unsuccessful campaign for Winnipeg mayor. The NDP lost her seat and has dropped behind the Liberals in Manitoba.
Adams said the NDP was hurt by the gun registry vote, which divided the party. He believes that while most people know the federal and provincial parties are different, the decline of the provincial NDP may also be affecting federal support as well."
So, how it about folks? I am convinced the NDP is about to take a real beating in this next election and think they will end up with at the best 12 - 15 seats after this election. I don't think people give a damn about whether there is justice when it comes to how a party's policies affect people. I also think most people have completely forgotten about the history of the way the Libs always goven. I think this election is going to ultimately revolve around how successful the Libs are scaring people into voting them in and the Tories out. And as for Quebec, forget it. It'll NEVER happen. They will vote Lib, Tory or Bloc untill the cows come home. The NDP is NEVER going to make inwards in Quebec, EVER! Quebec is the best example of how people "cut off their nose to spite their faces". In the best case scenario, the pattern of the Quebec voter simply proves they really aren't all that progressive, and more inward focused. I can't say I blame them, but for better or worse, this is how I feel.
I apologize for being such a pessimist, but I just don't see this going any other way. So I will ask the question. How wrong am I? If I am out to lunch, truly, I wish someone could convince me otherwise. I am very depressed about this, especially given it means we will be stuck with guys like Lamourueux for a while.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Canadian politics have always been depressing. I am used to it.
I agree, acramer. I think narrow to comfortable Tory majority, with the Liberals gaining as well. NDP support maybe increasing in its own strongholds, but not widely elsewhere.
Of course I hope I'm wrong. I hope for a Liberal first, or, at worst, a Tory minority.
I think I will wait till the 3rd week of the election before I write an epitaph again for the NDP. As FAr as I am concerned if they start low its fine, it means when their numbers return it will look like a good news story. Momentum is your friend in an election.
Learn from 1988: don't read too much nationally through the prism of Manitoba numbers.
Good advice from adma, Arthur! Of course you're the one living in Winnipeg, so no wonder you're feeling a little bit blue. So, I say, don't get mad - get even!
By the way, what was your take on Chris Adams' assertion that the Winnipeg North loss was due to the long-gun registry. I thought I followed that campaign pretty closely, but it didn't seem to come up that much in the coverage. Was it a big issue on the doorstep there?
I hate to be blunt Arthur, but it seems to me you are not really paying much attention, or filtering through a local lens the national scene. And I truly say that with the upmost respect. Recent Quebec polls have shown significant gains for the NDP in Quebec. In seat rich Southwestern Ontario the Ontario Liberals are in a steep decline meaning a number of seats are opening up for NDP gains in the 'rust belt' with spill over to the federal scene. More importantly Jack Layton is outpolling the NDP by miles which means the growth potential is large with the NDP starting at or around where it was on election night in 2008. Meanwhile the Conservatives are stuck in a bubble they can't break out of so there are very, very few seats they can increase their count to majority in. Iggy is polling well behind his party which means the more people see of him, the less they like.
The simple reality is that hardly anyone is paying any attention to politics. Polls right now are very meaningless, even more so than usual. In an election campaign people will really see Iggy for the first time and the potential for NDP growth is at a better place than I have mostly seen in my life-time. (I'm in my 60s). The Liberals are having a hard time recruiting high profile candidates and are demoralized like nothing I have seen before. The Cons are likley to lose seats in Quebec and BC.
The next election has huge potential, but if the idiot strategic vote crowd is given room through such pollyannish pesimissim we can virtually assure ourselves of a Conservative majority.
In other words buck up.
Good point Life. The NDP may pick up a few percent from the greens as well. Jack does well in the debates and I think it will be easy to now paint harper into any corner the opposition want to put him into. Harpers base won't leave but come Eday he may very well be sitting on only 30% of the vote. In 10 years the demographics could change significantly. The environment is going to hell in a handbasket and the young people don't view things like their parents do.
If I was Harper I think I would be more worried than anyone other than iggy but he is only there to push the Harper agenda anyway. I don't see Harper as being in the party for too long after losing seast which they will. That is why they are laying the groundwork by saying they don't want an election while riding around announcing spending.
I didn't think the NDP would have another chance to go into an election against someone as weak as Dion. This time its even better for the NDP. The libs have a very rightwing leader that isn't very liked. So cons can move to the libs if they choose, or can sit out. Meanwhile Lib-NDP swing voters can vote how they like because the NDP has a good chance of being in government when the dust settles. No need to vote lib, esp under the Iggy pro war banner. You can have your cake and eat it.
The high exposure of election time will thrust the NDP policy platfrom into everyones living room. Most don't hear about the NDP because we are a lot less relevant outside of elections in the medias mind. Sure you will knee jerk anti union voters staying away, but when you have someone as useless as Iggy at the helm of the libs, you have to be feeling good about Laytons odd on this one. Plus the NDP may pick up 2 or 3 seats in quebec and THAT would be very worrysome for the other parties.
Now I'm not saying we are going to be opposition. But if we get say 44-52 seats or so, even if we don't have the levers of power we start to look a lot more relevant. It will no longer be the horse race its always portrayed as. Give the voters something to vote for. I just hope the NDP stiffins its spine and takes some stands. Don't back down when the media tries to punish you for going against corporate interests-like with the whole death tax fiasco.
Perhaps in an election people will start to wake up to the damage that Harper's party has done to this country and start to pay attention, and to look for alternatives. They may even be in a forgiving mood, and look again to the Liberals, but that's pretty iffy, because the Libs look weaker that they have in a long, long time. The next election might be an exceptionally good one for the NDP and maybe the Greens... but then again, maybe not. Politics is a bit of a crap shoot. People may decide we're doing relatively well and keep Harper at the helm.
Mr. Cramer, with all due respect for your Federal loss in Winnipeg North- What city were in living in during the Winnipeg Municipal Election?? For some of us ,it was brutal!... and spilled into the Federal Election. ...Anyway, Happy New Year ! Winnipeg,MB.
P.S. Have a healthy disrespect for that FreeP Rag.
Hi to all and thanks for your comments. I would say it is far to say I am looking at things affected by what happened here in Winnipeg; I still can't believe it, and I really have no use at all for Lamoureux. That people would acutally vote for that guy is simply mystifying.
Regarding the long gun registry ottawa observer, that struck as "huh?". I never heard that at all over the course of the election. Maybe the polling guys know something I didn't but I don't think that was an issue at all. The Tories ran the lousiest candidate, the weather was cold and the "north end bobas" stayed home, and the local media became the "Kevin Lamoureux: fan club. It was a perfect storm. I was thinking for while it was partially an anti prov govt vote, but I don't know about that. The last prov poll shows the Tories with only a 4 point lead; it was higher at one point then that, my point being that I am not really convinced provicial politics really mattered a lot in Winnipeg North (as an aside, I wouldn't be measuring the curtains yet if I were Hugh McFaydan jus yet). I think the last election in Winnipeg North was about turn-out and a poor Tory candidate. It was a pefect storm, and Lamoureux got lucky.
I will admit, I don't really see the national trends outside of Manitoba all that clearly, and I don't really get Ontario politics much at all. I would welcome any help people might want to offer that would help me get a better view then things east of the Man-Ontario border. I think Boom Boom is right about things being a "crap shoot". And heaven help us if we get that really, really stupid, and I mean stupid, strategic voting thing going again. I will try harder to not freak out so much, but I have to tell you, when a guy like Lamoureux can dupe enough people to win an election to the House, I trully doubt the common sense and wisdom of my fellow citizens.
You folks are great, and I really apppreicate the fact you always seem to be there when the support is needed. Thanks a lot all, and all the best for 2011!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
The thing about why the gun registry looked important to the reporter is simple, even if it has no basis in reality.
The media narrative is that Iggnatieff cleverly drove a wedge into the NDP. Didnt happen. But why let facts get in the way.
According the narraitive this wedge is going to appear in urban areas. So when the Liberals unexpectedly beat the NDP in Winnepeg North, this is obviously a manifestation of that wedge working.
As to the likelihood of Iggy's siren call of so called 'strategic voting' having a serious effect: it has had less and less traction in each election. That wont stop the Liberals from trying. But it is no reason to take it so seriously.
@KenS:
You really hit it on one thing about the last electin; the feeble coverage by the local media. Particularily, the Free Press. Both Lett and Rabson were useless, and obviously spout "common wisdon" analysis. They both frustrate the hell out of me and make me wonder how anyone could possibly think the get something usefull from following the local media.
Rabson did it again by the way when she buried Lamouruex's vote in favor of Bruinooge's "anti-coercion" within a broader article about aboriginal Chief pay. She is pathetic. You are right about the wedge issue aspect of the long gun registry having no effect in Winnipeg North; after reading what you wrote, I got better the pollster's comments. Man those people are stupid!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
The Liberals beat us at our own game of organization in Winnipeg North. Dippers disagree on how excusable [or not] that is- but it happened. And neither for the first or last time.
but it has nothing at all to do with national trends.
Hey Arthur, how are you?
I would repeat the cautions others made about translating polling in particular areas to the national scene. I agree with you that the prospects for the NDP in Manitoba are not good after both the recent civic election and the by-election. I've noticed since I moved here that Winnipeg is not even a real "city," that it has attitudes that, for the most part, are consistent with what you would find in small towns or suburban communities. You tend to either agree with that value set, or you leave Winnipeg. Right now in Winnipeg the Conservatives are obviously the top political party, and I believe we will see the ground shift to reflect that in the next provincial election.
But it is not all doom and gloom in Manitoba. For one, Nikki Ashton is quite solid in her northern Manitoba seat. The area covered by the federal constituency of Selkirk-Interlake is owned provincially by the NDP. And in my hometown of Brandon, the ground is shifting, and the NDP is now becoming the top party of choice in this Tory bastion. It won't be enough to take the seat for the NDP as the party's support is still concentrated in the city, but if that support stays consistent in Brandon, it will probably rub off into the surrounding areas. Even though the local scene is not that good, the general picture is much brighter.
Hi:
Happy New Year! Boy it ha been awhile since I even thought about this thread. I am doing ok, but still feeling down about Winnipeg North.
Thanks for the positive info regarding the Brandon and Interlake area. Do you think there is any chance at all we could pick one of those seats? That would sure make me feel a little better. How does Pat Marting look in Winnipeg Centre? I am thinking it may be close but am hoping he will be ok. What are your thoughts on that? Have insomina, so am up and just saw your post. Thanks for your comments; would be glad to hear what you think.
Hey, all the very best to you and yours as we start this new year. I hope 2011 is full of good health, success and happiness. Cheers!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg.
In the interm, we could pick up Interlake, although the incumbent won half the vote when the NDP ran Ed Schreyer against him. Perhaps if it was an open seat? Brandon is more a long-term project. It always outpolls the party nationally, so if you have 30% for the NDP combined with a Conservative collapse, it's in play.
As for Pat Martin and Jim Malloway? I'd consider both of them to be vulnerable. Martin has alienated many with some of his more bone-headed remarks. If there is a strong challenge from both the left and the Liberals, it's quite possible that enough disgruntled NDPers would vote left and Martin could come up the middle. Malloway nearly lost to Thomas Steen in the last federal election, and Steen was a terrible candidate. Malloway strikes me as a lightweight, he hasn't really seemed to come up with anything to catch imagination, and is vulnerable to a strong Conservative challenge.
As for the rest of the city? St. Boniface might be another long-term prospect, but it's currently a Liberal-Conservative marginal, and Glover should easily beat former MP Ray Simard. Winnipeg South Centre is Anita Neville's riding. This contains Liberal River Heights, and Osborne Village. Osborne Village will vote to keep the Conservatives from winning, which means Liberal. Kildonan-St. Paul might go NDP eventually. The NDP barely eked out the Liberals here to finish a distant second last go around. Charleswood and Winnpeg South are Conservative-Liberal marginals, and the NDP will not be a factor especially with a push to oust Harper. (There's almost no organization in Winnipeg South, and I'd be surprised if the NDP candidate makes back the deposit.) In the last 30 years, Dauphin only ever went non-Conservative twice. In 1980, the backlash against the provincial government of Sterling Lyon propelled the NDP to a one-term victory, and in 1993 the Reform-PC split propelled the Liberals to a one-term victory. Portage and Provencher are deep in the Manitoba Bible Belt and will not vote NDP any time soon. I really think the next election in Manitoba will be about holding the seats the NDP currently has, even if it wins back Winnipeg North.
Hi:
Well, that sounds extremely gloomy. I thought Martin might be in trouble. He didn't do as well as I thought he should have the last time around, so I am not surprised. Do you think the Libs might run Northcott again? Could he win, and why would a foodbank guy ever run Lib? Have you ever talked to him to get an understanding of where he is coming from? As for East Kildonan-Trancona, well that sounds bad. I really can't imagine the NDP losing the old Railway man vote. Has Winnipeg really changed that much?
How about Winnipeg North. I guess I am asking if you think the NDP may be slipping in Winnipeg? If so, is it long term or short term? What is going on? I don't get how the Libs could possibly come back other then people forget how the Libs screw working people once they get power. What are your thoughts.
This all sounds pretty bad? Do you have feel on likely outcomes right now?
Arthur Cramer,Winnipeg
Portage, Provencher, Brandon, Dauphin: Conservative
Winnipeg South Centre: Liberal
Churchill: NDP
The rest? Ask me closer to the election.
Long term or short term? I don't know. I do know the provincial NDP has alienated many progressive people (genstrike can speak to this topic) and that has implications federally. In Saskatchewan, Link is failing to inspire people four years after the NDP was handed its worst ever showing in the popular vote, and where the NDP used to be a significant player rural Saskatchewan is now firmly in the grip of the Saskatchewan Party. That has no doubt impacted the federal party's chances.
Has Winnipeg changed? All over the place, people are frustrated with established politicians. As party memberships decline, this no doubt affects all parties in all their safe seats, and someone who can inspire people can make an impact. (Ask a Muslim business prof who's name is "Naheed Nenshi" about that.)
Pat Martin, vulnerable? You must be kidding.
Maybe if he had to win an election on Babble.
But he wins by 2 to 1 margins, with the second place party changing from election to election. And I have heard he takes nothing for granted, both as constituency politician and with campaign organization.
Yes, there are no safe seats. But Martin vulnerable enough to say 'wait and see what it looks like'. I think thats just wishful thinking.
And on top of that, re
He didn't do as well as I thought he should have the last time around, so I am not surprised.
If "didn't do as well" means only a plurality rather than a majority, maybe you're getting somewhere; but sheesh, Pat Martin's 49% was more than twice that of his nearest (CPC) opponent, so that'd be splitting hairs.
OTOH, re
Kildonan-St. Paul might go NDP eventually. The NDP barely eked out the Liberals here to finish a distant second last go around.
It wasn't just "barely eked out"; the Liberal candidate withdrew, and their vestigial vote was but a quarter of the NDP's.
Maloway's private member's bill advocating an airline passengers' bill of rights has been a really big deal and story up in Ottawa. The airlines all retained lobbyists to work on it, because if there is one industry MPs are very familiar with (and ALL have opinions on), it's the airline industry (since they are some of its biggest users).
Also, he has distinguished himself as being the single most prolific participant in House of Commons debates. I've heard him at some length on a variety of topics, and he's always well informed.
My guess is that the margin in Transcona last time was less than Bill Blaikie's the times before, because Maloway was a new candidate. Incumbency will have an effect, and his people are known as very good organizers.
Maybe if he had to win an election on Babble.
But he wins by 2 to 1 margins, with the second place party changing from election to election. And I have heard he takes nothing for granted, both as constituency politician and with campaign organization.
Yes, there are no safe seats. But Martin vulnerable enough to say 'wait and see what it looks like'. I think thats just wishful thinking.
I live in Winnipeg. Winnipeg Centre is more an NDP seat than a Pat Martin seat, and I'm confident enough to stand by my assessment. Judy Wasylicia-Leis used to win her seat by about that margin as well, and the NDP failed to hold it.
Also, he has distinguished himself as being the single most prolific participant in House of Commons debates. I've heard him at some length on a variety of topics, and he's always well informed.
My guess is that the margin in Transcona last time was less than Bill Blaikie's the times before, because Maloway was a new candidate. Incumbency will have an effect, and his people are known as very good organizers.
Malloway served in the provincial NDP for over 20 years without being posted to Cabinet. That says something to me. He has always come across to me as a lightweight and I don't see that he commands nearly the amount of personal respect that Blaikie did.
Judy Wasylicia-Leis used to win her seat by about that margin as well, and the NDP failed to hold it.
In a by-election. With no NDP incumbent. With a Liberal candidate that had a well honed and succesful against odds organization tied to him personally.
Not something to generalize from to a general election and an NDP incumbent who is very well organized and has never taken anything for granted.
If you had said something like "things have shifted and Pat Martin cannot take anything for granted" I wouldnt quibble. Pat Martin is iff and vulnerable is another story, even if the two statements draw on the same phenomena.
Mallowat and the riding I know very little about. But the criteria you mentioned in themselves do not amount to much. He strikes you as a lightweight says nothing at all about what the constituents think. Few strong constituency politicians get that way for the national stage reasosns Blaikie did. There are a lot of so called "lightweights" who are pretty unbeatable.
Continually breaking news on the cabinet shuffle. possibly the last before an election.
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2011/01/04/harper-shuffles-cabinet.html
Judy Wasylicia-Leis used to win her seat by about that margin as well, and the NDP failed to hold it.
In a by-election. With no NDP incumbent. With a Liberal candidate that had a well honed and succesful against odds organization tied to him personally.
Not something to generalize from to a general election and an NDP incumbent who is very well organized and has never taken anything for granted.
I live in Winnipeg, and I've heard people tell me that he does take the constituency for granted.
You may be right. But I've heard otherwise [granted, it wasnt a source I'd call totally balanced], and I've heard that said elsewhere when it really means more a case of "he doesnt pay enough attention to my pet issues."
Pat Martin is so disliked by the left that I need to know something about the people offering opinions to assess whether they are actually observing something about what constituents think of him, or more expressing that they dont like him.
I have worked for Pat in elections fast. I would say he hasn't exactly ever really been all that friendly to me or give me much time when I have talked with him, but I know you can't really judge MPs like that. It has been my experience, at least for myself, that they don't really give you the time of day when you talk to them. That has been my experience every time; either the problem is me, or that is par for the course. I don't know; I have never had a counter experience so I don't really know.
Is there anyone who actually has enough first hand experience to comment on the observations above? Also, why is Pat hated by the left? I guess I miss a lot of this you know. I don't have "an in" with anyone, so I would't know otherwise.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg.
Hope this isn't a stupid post.
He is a staunch Zionist, to the point of criticizing members of his own party who showed sympathy for the Palestinians as "loony left."
After the NDP voted in favour of a policy resolution calling for Canadian troops to be home from Afghanistan, he went on to voice support for the mission.
Those are 2 examples I can think of off the top of my head. I'm sure others can come up with more.
Pat Martin and I communicated on the fight against asbestos several times - I enoyed hearing from him, and he was clearly committed to the battle against asbestos (maybe he still is - it's been a year since my last contact with him).
You know, as a Jew, I am a little uncomfortable with this "anti-Zionist" stuff. I am no fan of Israel, don't buy Isreal bonds, etc., and think Israel is close to becoming another South Africa. Still, I get the distinct feeling that there is little tolerance for the Israeli concern over security. I think this is a legitimate one, but certainly there has to be some balance. Especially when it comes to the pro-Israeli side, they really need to come into the 21st century. Still, I do find it really hard to ignore the fact that there is a small underling current of ant-semitism in a lot of the "anti-Zonist", anti-Israeli rhetoric I see on left wing boards.
I can tell you as a Jew, this makes feel a little uncomfortable. I am not trying to point fingers in any way at all, I'm just saying.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Also, regarding interaction with politicians, is my experience unique? I mean, do we sometimes want to put these people on pedestals they didn't necessarily ask us to do?
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Arthur you may be surprised, but our most anti-zionist posters are in fact Jewish..so it isn't anti-semetic. Though I won't speak for them directly Examples are unionist and I believe cueball. Even Stockholm who is sometimes on the fence agrees that Gaza and lebannon attacks are a disgrace. Facts on the ground are hard to dispute. No one here is pro rocket attacks. We all condemn them. But mainstream media covers those for more than the 10-1 death ratio being suffered by Palestinians. .
Its the same as how we criticize Canadas role in afghanistan and the injury of innocent afghans by our troops, wither by bombs or bullets or malfeasance. It doesn't make me anti-canadian. When we accidentally drop a bomb on a wedding in afghanistan its a war crime full stop. Its not an accident. I find it funny when people post how cowardly using IEDs are...but I guess missiles and bombs launched from ships a couple hundred miles offshore is somehow brave. It isn't.
If you have a vast amount of power it is incumbent on you to be better and more morale than your opponent and to grant mercy when possible. You will never win any struggle by taking the low road. It gives your enemy much to show how insincere you are.
At least that is my stance.
I don't diagree the Isreailis have a responsibility to restrain themselves. They do, and as I said above, they are close to acting in the same way the South Africans. However, while on this board it may indeed be Jews who are the most voracious anti-Zionists, my life experience has never been the loudest anti-semitic voices have come exclusively from Jews; I dont think you are saying that, but I think it warrants mentioning.
I don't feel comfortable with the way these kinds of threads always go, and when they do, I feel real dismay, as it leaves me almost no where to go. I don't really want to beat up this thread on this aspect of conversation; all I wanted to do was say I felt uncomfortable.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
I don't diagree the Isreailis have a responsibility to restrain themselves. They do, and as I said above, they are close to acting in the same way the South Africans. However, while on this board it may indeed be Jews who are the most voracious anti-Zionists, my life experience has never been the loudest anti-semitic voices have come exclusively from Jews; I dont think you are saying that, but I think it warrants mentioning.
I don't feel comfortable with the way these kinds of threads always go, and when they do, I feel real dismay, as it leaves me almost no where to go. I don't really want to beat up this thread on this aspect of conversation; all I wanted to do was say I felt uncomfortable.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Arthur, as Life, the universe put it, way back in post #6 : " buck up ".
There are lottsa good folks hereabouts. Stick around and see. As me old mom would put it, Rome wasn't built in a day.
I agree with "bucking-up". But, I am not feeling really optimistic. Here's hoping you are right. Given the election of Liberal MP, Kevin Lamoureux in my riding of Winnipeg North, who voted in support of Rod Bruinooge's anti-choice "anti-coercion" law, I am truly worried for what may be upcoming.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
And also, on the back of its surprisingly solid second-place showing in '06, the Conservatives smelled open-seat blood...
I can tell you as a Jew, this makes feel a little uncomfortable. I am not trying to point fingers in any way at all, I'm just saying.
There is a difference between expressing your sentiments in the fashion you just did and calling people "loony lefties."
And I agree with that. I don't think I called anyone loony leftie; I don't think I have ever used that language, as far as I know. But I will call people extremists. That is different. Left or right, it is always bad.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
You did not, nor did I intend to suggest or imply that. I'm sorry if I came across as accusatory. Pat Martin, however, did.
Fair enough.
Is this a Manitoba provincial poll we are talking about?
hummm, yes, I see now.... insinuate that some one should do something to someone else, or something happen to them, just not yourself doing the deed.. Nice ;)
they will split the vote just enough to give many to tghe cons.
i predict even without Quebec Harper will get a majority. The libs are finished. I also think Chairman Harper will pick up 3-6 BC seats.
Re the whole Pat Martin controversy: anyone think he could have fared better against Sam Katz than Judy W-L did? (Though maybe "for all the wrong reasons", in the eyes of some Babblers)
For many years, he has been pushing a Private Member's Bill to introduce a "loyalty oath" for members of parliament which (he hopes) would prevent Bloc members from taking their seats by forcing them to swear allegiance to Canada (not a current requirement).
Besides making him an enemy of the people of Québec, that puts him in the league of Joseph McCarthy as far as I'm concerned.
Then, of course, there is his narcissistic need to be heard and read, no matter how big a lie and how scurrilous the gossip he needs to invent. Example: Here is an entire recent thread based on a sick delusion that he shared with a reporter that Harper and Duceppe had made a mutual support deal involving House votes and the Québec hockey arena.
His running of interference for Israel and Afghan-mission-loving are disturbing, but not unique. Neither is his Québec bashing. Nor his pathological lying and publicity-seeking. But the whole package, tied up with a ribbon, stinks.
Hope that answers your question.
ETA: Arthur, to understand Pat Martin's xenophobic contempt for Québec more fully, have a look at this 2008 article on his website where he said:
Imagine talking about Jewish voters in that way, and you'll get a feel for the pathology I've been talking about.
Given all of that, the name 'Pat Martin' alone should be enough for anyone to seriously reconsider their affiliations and loyalties.
Without the name 'Pat Martin,' you have plenty of other litmus tests to answer that question for you.
Litmus tests? We're talking about the absence of an elementary sense of decency here.
Actually, I saw your post, but somehow missed the one by Unionist that you were following up.
Worse that that, mind/perception tricks: I thought your cryptic comment was by Unionist.
Since I put my foot in it, I'll add this: insitutions like political parties and trade unions are big tents. There are bufoons in the tent. And people who are prone to act like buffoons. [I think Pat Matrin is the latter, but I wont quibble about which.]
I don't get to decide about whether the buffonery allows them to be in my tent. There are people who have been delegated to have at least some power over that. Sometimes I wonder why they don't do something about buffoon or buffoonery X. But there is no forum for that, and it is not on my critical list of things I am going to find about anyway.
Ok, that is enough for me; he is a disaster. However I know as a Jew based on mailings I get for which I never asked anyone to include me, and the odd discussions I have with other Jews, , Martin is not the only MP sucking up to Israel; there are plenty of Tories, and more so Libs, who do this. Frankly, in my city alone, here are plenty of Winnipeg area MPS who are just as quilty of this kind of blind support, though less pugnacious in their commentary. And although all of this is true, if Martin can't be beat at nomination, then New Dems are stuck with him. This is the reality of politics. It sucks but it is true. I'll still never vote Lib; "better dead then Red".
Anyway, can we please move off Martin and Israel, and back to the central theme of this thread, which I started, which is how things look for the New Dems? We could always open up another thread to deal with Martin and Israel, etc. I figured this thread would get hijacked by this. Again, this isn't why I started this thread.
So to ask again, anyone have any new insight where things stand for the New Dems as the year starts?You guys don't have to listen to me if you don't want to of course, but I would really appreciate it if you would consider letting this thread get back to where it was originally intended to dwell, so to speak.
Truly repsectfully to all, with my apologies for any possible offense these comments my unintentionaly afford.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Not to belabor the point, but misery loves company apparently. This thread has informed us that like the other two federal parties, apologists and buffoons are running at the mouth with impunity in the NDP. Not that there's anything particularly new to this insight. Nevertheless, this is where they stand.
He's still there and no one has said squat in the public domain, at least anything that would serve as a counterbalance to statements that should never have seen the light of day, let alone form the basis of privately held opinions. Isn't that enough information to go on about what they're doing about it?
Sounds easy to you. But if you go demanding action or 'inquiries' into the words or actions of someone in the tent... and you get it... that becomes a lisence for more, some of which you are not going to like at all where it is pointed.
That does not mean that you let everything go by. But it is not as easy as you put. Everyone draws their lines. In the first place, that universal drawing of lines is not acknowledged. On top of that, it is no surprise that people who could never be in the tent are going to be unhappy with what is tolerated inside it.
Probably not. Whatever of Judy's weaknesses he covered up for, he would have had his own.
Opinion Polling for the 41st Canadian Federal Election - wiki
Hi:
Succinct for sure, but don't know if I buy that. I am not sure polls always reflect what is occuring on the ground, which is why I come here. Personally, I still say the NPD are going to get shellacked; I don't think you can underestimate the stupidity of the Canadian voter, especially with the idea of strategic voting again rearing its ugly hear.
Sorry, I think that the average Canadian voter is pretty damn stupid, so I don't see any reason not to expect the worst.
Sorry guys, still a pessimist.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
You need to take the advice I gave you in another thread as an andedote to that pessimism. Unless of course you are only interested in wallowing in it- which is what floats some peoples boat.
Some like to splash around in that thing called reality.
File this away for reference later Arthur:
The consensus view is that there is only an outside chance the NDP will get shellacked. You think it is being realistic. [And Slumberjack agrees. No comment on whether he cares.]
And just in case somebody is looking for definitions: a shellacking is not just dropping a couple seats overall. That would be in the range of 'stand still.' Which I do not expect, but would not go saying there is only an outside chance of it.
I was an NDP pessimist until I saw the Liberals running around like chickens with their heads chopped off. Now I believe the NDP actually stands a chance at being competitive with the Liberals.
Ok, I will try hard, honeslty. I am still really down about Winnipeg North; I absolutely can't undestand how anyone could vote for the Lib who won. It absolutely made no sense to me
I apologize to everyone; this really took the wind out of my sails. It was a really bitter loss to take.
artur Cramer, winnipeg
Ok, I will try hard, honeslty. I am still really down about Winnipeg North; I absolutely can't undestand how anyone could vote for the Lib who won. It absolutely made no sense to me
I apologize to everyone; this really took the wind out of my sails. It was a really bitter loss to take.
artur Cramer, winnipeg
I don't see anything at the moment that would precipitate the sort of political tectonic shift that anyone need write home about. Everyone appears to be sticking with the devil they know, because the sad truth of the matter is that the voters are indeed being led around by headless chickens, and they've elected to stay put as a result.
I suspect after the next election the Liberals will be known as "the gang that couldn't shoot straight".
OK lets be honest, even if we lose 5 seats which I doubt, I don't see it as cataclysmic. And the NDP alwasy goes up in elections. Like I mentioned I would rather start lower in the polls and make up the ground in the last 3 weeks. momentum is optics, optics is more important than reality in politics. People think conservatives are fiscally responsible. they aren't but that is the optics.
As long as their isn't a majority in the house, the next session will be a turning point. Either we introduce progressive measures with the libs, or they show their true colours and get wiped off the map. Which is harpers endgame anyway. To me its a win win. Finally start pulling the frame back to the left, or we eliminate the libs and have a head to head battle of canadians vs conservatives.
Remember losing a battle doesn't mean losing the war. I would like to start winning a few, but if the libs implode and we get enough people to shift things left that is much better in the long run. That is why the cons have been so successful, they have taken the long game of teaching people to vote against their own interest
And when they have the opportunity to grab power(and without accountabiliity like a minority government) the raze the foundation we laid so many years ago and start wrecking things with abbandon. Knowing it will take years more till they are allowed at the levers of power. Sadly the libs are complicite in this. Enabling the cons to destroy the fabric and then doing so themselves with a smiling face playing good con bad con. Its weird that cons hate liberals so much because they are a lot closer to each other than we are to either.
Just to be clear Arthur I am not suggesting major gains. I just don't see anything that suggests major losses - which is what I take to be a 'schellacking'. While the potential is there for some big gains when voters finally look at Ignatieff and turn down their thumbs, my real expectation is that the NDP will lose some heartbreaking seats and pick up some real surprises. I am expecting to see some real uptick in Southwestern Ontario - maybe not wins, but the stage set for them in the near future. The NDP might lose some seats in Manitoba on the back of a long in the tooth provincial government, but may just finally see Nettie Weibe in the House as a balancer. So the House will likely look a lot like it currently does, although with a changed seating arrangement. Having once been an adversary of the NDP I have to honestly say they look in better shape to mount and more importantly sustain a campaign than I have ever seen them before. So the potentiality is there for a wide range of results as campaigns take on a life of their own- and rarely do they turn out as expected, but the NDP is simply not sitting at some pre-determined schellacking level.
I am sure that your career did not teach you to turn tail, run, and give up at the first set back by the way -so again - buck up.
Succinct for sure, but don't know if I buy that. I am not sure polls always reflect what is occuring on the ground, which is why I come here. Personally, I still say the NPD are going to get shellacked; I don't think you can underestimate the stupidity of the Canadian voter, especially with the idea of strategic voting again rearing its ugly hear.
Sorry, I think that the average Canadian voter is pretty damn stupid, so I don't see any reason not to expect the worst.
Sorry guys, still a pessimist.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
I think it's important not to confuse the NDP's unpopularity in Manitoba with the NDP's popularity in the rest of Canada. After 11 years in power provincially, it should come as no surprise that the NDP's popularity, both provincially and federally, is ebbing in Manitoba.
But it makes no sense to extrapolate the NDP's relatively poor showing in Manitoba and transpose it onto the rest of Canada. Outside of Manitoba, and to a lesser extent Nova Scotia, the federal NDP does not have provincial NDP governments holding down its popularity.
For awhile now polls have shown that the NDP is in trouble in Manitoba, and events on the ground seem to be bearing the poll predictions out. Over the years polls have proven to have a good track record predicting election results. It's fair to say that after well over a decade in power the NDP's reign in Manitoba is in jeaporady.
But the federal scene is much different then Manitoba's. Manitoba makes up less then 4% of Canada's population. So it's important to remember that federal polls show the NDP is holding its own. It's also important to remember that once a federal election is called, the NDP's record under Layton shows that the party will likely gain some ground during the campaign.
That's a rather amazing statement. If true, what exactly does that say about the Manitoba NDP?
that it is typical of almost every governing party in the history of Canada with the exception of the single party state of Alberta and post-war Ontario to the 80s.
There is nothing "the matter with people". Life evolves as it always does and individuals determine their political alliegiance according to personal needs and entitlements not the sweeping adolescent ideologies of those who have not yet taken up the full responsibilities involved in life.
The Ontario experience was a series of reinventions by the Tories, all of which worked. They would freak out every decade that they were going to lose and modified the party to avoid that. Like rolling higher than 7 8 straight times. Unlikely, but no freakishly so. Note that particularly in the early years of this the provincial Liberals were substantially to the right of the Tories.
Alberta is something else. Perhaps an Albertan could explain that.
Have faith and patience, Arthur!
For every riding that the NDP might have problems holding onto (Edmonton-Strathcona, Sudbury, Burnaby-Douglas), I can name you four ridings that the NDP will have an excellent chance at winning next election:
St. John's South-Mt. Pearl, South Shore-St. Margaret's, Gatineau, Essex, Kenora, Winnipeg North, Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Edmonton East, Surrey North, Vancouver Island North, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca.
And these don't include ridings where the NDP has done well in the past, or have great candidates that are running high-level campaigns:
Central Nova, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Beaches-East York, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, Oshawa, Brant, Huron-Bruce, Regina-Qu'appelle, Edmonton Centre, Kamloops, Nunavut.
And given the NDP's steady gain in support around Montreal, it's always possible that ridings like Westmount-Ville Marie, or Jeanne Le Ber could surprise on election night.
Remember, it took Ed Broadbent 10 years to fight his fourth election as NDP leader, and the results in 1988 showed that Canadians needed time to get to know Ed better before they'd vote NDP in record numbers, which is exactly what I see happening with Jack Layton as he prepares to lead the NDP into his fourth election as leader, with a larger caucus going into the election than the NDP had under Broadbent in 1988.
Don't write them off just yet!
Hi LTU:
Well, I guess you are right, I know I have to buck-up, but it is tough to face the idea of no New Dem Winnipeg North MP. I know I have said this so many times I must sound just so immature, but I really can't stand the Lib elected. I think the guy is an opportunist, and when he voted in support of Bruinooge's bill, it made me feel even worse. I think this says a lot about the guy, and I really resent his masquerading as a "progressive". That is so laughable. And on top of everything else, the local media here is being the narrative he is trying to create about who he is; it is nauseating.
There have been a lot of observations about the fact the NDP is long in the tooth here in Manitoba. I think that is really having an effect federally, but I am not sure to what degree this will acually affect the outcome of things at the next Fed election. On the other hand, I am not convinced the New Dems are going to lose provincially. It is just too early to say. A lot will depend on how well the New Dems can expose McFaydan for what he is on the one hand, and frankly, how much people really care, on the other.
Roscoe, ouch! "Not the sweeping adolescent ideologies of those who have not yet taken up the full responsibilities involved in life". I don't know what you mean honestly. I don't feel the need to regret having an ideological bias that drives my view. As a matter of fact I would argue it shows at least a willingness to accept responsiblity for what you think and backing with action your views. I wouldn't mind knowing a little more about what you are trying to say. I truly don't get what you mean.
As for the rest above, I have to admit, it all makes me feel a little better. It sounds that outside of my own province, there is some real potential this time for New Dem breakthroughs. That would be very satisfying after watching the New Dems fortunes ebb and flow. I always thought Ed Broadbent deserved a better fate then being so popular and not becoming at least the leader of opposition. It would be great to see the New Dems do better under Jack. I voted for Blakie for leader; but Jack has done well. I am still very biased towards Blakie; he worked with my dad when my dad was the Superintendent of the Transcona-Springfield School Division many, many years ago. They got along well, and my dad thought very highly of him.
You know, I wish a lot of the old time CCFers/New Dems could be around now to see how things stand. I know, keep working and stay at it.
Ok, enough rambling. Cheers eveyone!
Arthur Cramer, Winniipeg
Hi David!
Saw you comment after posting above. Thanks above. Guess I have been having trouble seeing the big picture.
Thanks for the encouragement.
Again, my apologies everyone.
Cheers!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Well Arthur we had a Liberal here in Huron-Bruce that was to the right of the Coonservatives, but who convinced progressive voters to continue to strategically vote for him so I know how that feels.
LTU:
You do; it shows you really do "put your money where you mouth is". I guess I should stop whining. Sorry about that.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Hey my parents got Jeff Watson a conservative running in the county who lives in the city working at Chrysler and a member of the CAW...I will believe a lot more than I use to. He couldn't run in windsor because he wasn't well liked by most people in the city or form his work, but was good enough for some of the rednecks in the county. They wanted change...good job A Holes. I would take Sue Whelan again over this useless cow dropping. I like the boot campaign they ran. they dropped a couple of hundred pairs of boots from all the people laid off in our region while he has done NOTHING in his 6 years in government...unless you consider mailing 10 percenters as doing something.
But, thorin, now they can get Taras Natyshak!
Remember, too: the NDP's ebb in Manitoba is nowhere near 1988 Pawley-collapse levels. And re Winnipeg North, remember once again: "the Liberal candidate, stupid". I'm sorry, but the Babbleworld myopia t/w the "unlikeable" Lamoureux is a match for the Babbleworld myopia t/w the "unlikeable" Pat Martin.
Besides, when it comes to the national scene where it counts--members in Commons--the Manitoba NDP caucus is but 3, down from 4. Less than 10% of the national total. If only that's wiped out, the party still has well over 30 seats, more than at anytime other than 1988...
OO I have met Taras and he is a comely man, but I am not sure on him. My parents will vote NDP again, but it all depends on if Sue Whelan is going to run again or not. Unless we see a front runner the cons will split the non con vote to squeal up the middle AGAIN.
Thorin, unless you've heard something more recent, Susan Whelan ruled out running again federally, and has taken a job with the Ontario Cancer Society. The Liberals nominated Kingville Mayor Nelson Santos last year, but he still ran for reelection municipally this past November. Do you have anything more recent to go on?
Roscoe, ouch! "Not the sweeping adolescent ideologies of those who have not yet taken up the full responsibilities involved in life". I don't know what you mean honestly. I don't feel the need to regret having an ideological bias that drives my view. As a matter of fact I would argue it shows at least a willingness to accept responsiblity for what you think and backing with action your views. I wouldn't mind knowing a little more about what you are trying to say. I truly don't get what you mean.
No ouch intended, Arthur. There is nothing wrong with "sweeping adolescent ideologies". What I was trying to convey is that individuals who have been beaten up by life's experiences in general have a more self-centered and less altruistic attitude toward governance than those who have not yet experienced the full weight of life's burdens.
They don't want to hear about global warming, eradication of malaria, the fight against aids or the injustice of racism. They want to know how much the child tax credit, CPP, tax policy, infrastructure grants will benefit them personally.
In order to attract these individuals, the NDP needs to stop playing political games with the other parties and concentrate on a solid platform of responsible governance and affordable social benefits. The accepted ploy of holding back party positions until an election for fear of policy theft by others just doesn't cut it in attracting voters from outside the NDP core.
David refers to 1988. It is also worth remembering that in 1988 - when the NDP got its highest seat total ever - the party actually LOST seats in Manitoba - INCLUDING Winnipeg North.
Unionist, the fact that a government starts eroding support after a while is the inevitable fate of being the government. Allan Blakeney used to say that a new government is like a hiker at the bottom of a mountain holding an empty backpack. Every few hundred feet up the mountain, the hiker adds a stone to his pack. After a while, it starts to weigh him down.
Perhaps support for provincial governments in Quebec never erodes over time . . .
OO not much. I had heard about Santos. There are a lot Italians in the leamington area and I know he would have a lot of their support because they are more affluent than their windsor counterparts. That would be a threat because of name recognition. Then it comes down to a series of people who like to vote on single issues. Hate to say this but as useless as Jeff Watson is. I have a sneaky suspicion he will win, probably not much more than say 1000 votes and a lot closer than the 5,000 lead he has last time, but enough to retain his seat.
The county people I work with ( and most people who read the lousy extreme right windsor star) don't pay nearly enough attention to politics. They are busy with the farm when they get home and many don't bother with TV just pick up a few facts from our severly biased paper. Sure some know better, but the star makes it out that the NDP will come into their home and send their kid to commie brainwashing camp while stealing their guns and then taxing them into oblivion.
Most think I make stuff up about what harper does on a daily basis. They simply refuse to see him as anything other than some guy like them down at the timmies...this applies to some people in windsor as well, but the sentiment is much stronger in the county. We use to have a very good progressive counciller in lakeshore whos name escapes me. It might be a Tom(not bain) I remember him pulling a procedural motion on trying to get something through essex council that had to do with our fight against the destruction of marshfield woods. A woodlot they wanted to turn into a golf course. We have very little forest left in the area(less than 3 percent http://www.erca.org/downloads/natural_areas_map.pdf) ANd it was a significant wetlands. While the essex mayor a PC candidate(Joan Flood) a few times, was out of the room he called for a vote and won. It was a little sneaky but we were really up a creek against a developer breaking rules and enviro laws that the essex mayor said didn't matter....He would have been a very good candidate, but is a little long in the tooth these days.
Most think I make stuff up about what harper does on a daily basis. They simply refuse to see him as anything other than some guy like them down at the timmies...this applies to some people in windsor as well, but the sentiment is much stronger in the county.
I maintain that the problem isn't that Harper was elected, but that there has been enough support to make that vialbe in the first place. If people are really that ignorant about politics in this country, that in itself is a serious problem. That needs to be addressed, voting the Conservatives out in this context is simply not enough.
I don't think people are that ignorant about politics. Or: whatever they are, 'they' have been since long before we got this government, and before even the decades long slowly accumulating gains of the Right. So the point of complaining about what you call ignorance is what now?
But I have a question about meaning that comes before that beef. What does the last sentence mean? "Voting the Conservatives out is not enough?"
OO not much. I had heard about Santos. There are a lot Italians in the leamington area and I know he would have a lot of their support because they are more affluent than their windsor counterparts.
Though if it's of any compensation, Leamington proper is next door in Chatham-Kent Essex.
A spring election is looming and Canadians are anxious for change. Harper promises more of the same but wait deeper cuts and bigger tax breaks for the richest in the land. British Columbians are living the fairy tell, as little men work all day and never get ahead. What about Harper's HST to get things going in the right direction in two of the major cities where jobs are on the down and out. What could have went wrong? Its always nice to see someone who dosen't have much taking the last bit of change out of their pocket to help the filthy rich out.
How well informed are Canadians? Anyone got any polls on the subject?
It is possible that the only way people will get rid of this government is when the credit gets yanked back with tougher policies or higher rates-- then poeple who are living on credit will be faced with what they really have and the losee of the middle income group will be more apparent.
There are too many wanna-be middle income people that think they can get buy because they have an ever growing Visa. When that party ends people will see they cannot afford as much as they used to and have a different perspective on wealth generation for the wealthiest.
A spring election is looming and Canadians are anxious for change.
We hope.
You talk like you know it to be true. [Because it should be, I guess.] But all we know is that they will think about it.
Adma true I had forgotten that. I am still getting use to the post 1997 boundaries in windsor.
Aristotle, you are right. The problem isn't getting just enough people to not vote for the cons. The problem is media and educational bias to capitalism. And yes education is biased in their direction even if some don't believe it. Not the whole curriculum but the presentation. When I took econ 101 we covered the different forms of government, communist, capitalist and mixed. You don't even find socialist really in there, and socialism has become a dirty word in the public mind.
So does the word Welfare. The righties are winning the definition war in that regard. Welfare is so misunderstood in this country it would be laughable if it wasn't so important. You could argue at one time it MAY have been too generous or easy to get on, that is not the case these days but you still here the odd welfare queen reference. Lately its the anti-immigrant stance they have taken to. Oh they pander to existing immigranst with photo op BS. But they also play the the new immigrant card. Because while your parents or you yourself came to canada in recent times They are stealing your job. This nebulus they could be anything, but right now its islamaphobia. Before it was the post war italians and germans, before that it was the irish. And round it goes.
Back to point one, socialism is mixed economy which is most places, even the US. They have medicare for their soldiers and seniors but that is different than for the average person isn't it.