Nov 29, 2010 By-elections: news and views II

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edmundoconnor
Nov 29, 2010 By-elections: news and views II

(continued from the last thread).

edmundoconnor

For me, the Vaughan race is the least interesting of the races. It's only getting this much attention because it's easy for the media to cover it. D-SR-M is by far more interesting, not least because if the NDP at least poses a serious threat to the Tories, then they're sending a message to other prairie ridings that they mean business. This could accelerate the change where the NDP finds itself the beneficiary of the anti-Tory vote, as the Liberal vote continues to circle the drain.

ottawaobserver

It's quite hilarious to look at the Dauphin Liberal candidate's Facebook page and realize that they are running on two different positions on the gun registry: one north and one south.

Lord Palmerston

I don't see the NDP being a "serious threat" to the Tories in DSRM - but I think they will certainly establish themselves as the clear opposition party.

Lord Palmerston

[url=http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/2010/11/26/16332901.html]Wa... Kinsella sures likes Fantino[/url]

Quote:

To me, there’s never been much question that Conservative candidate Julian Fantino is going to handily win Monday’s byelection in a riding north of Toronto.

The question, instead, is why the hell Julian Fantino wants the job in the first place.

Fantino is nearly 70 years old. Until recently, he was the commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police. Before that, he was chief of police in Toronto, York Region and London.

Fantino — who, full disclosure, helped my family when we were facing a serious death threat a few years back, and who I unsuccessfully tried to talk into running for Toronto’s mayor more than once — is a very capable guy. That’s why Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty (for whom Fantino has a high regard, and vice-versa) tapped the long-time cop to be his top law enforcement officer for so many years.

Fantino knows how to run things. He’s an extremely effective manager, too. The way in which he stickhandled the Caledonia standoff — and assorted native blockades in summers past — made crystal-clear that Fantino was born to be The Boss.

So why, then, does Fantino want to join the Harper government?

adma

edmundoconnor wrote:

For me, the Vaughan race is the least interesting of the races. It's only getting this much attention because it's easy for the media to cover it. D-SR-M is by far more interesting, not least because if the NDP at least poses a serious threat to the Tories, then they're sending a message to other prairie ridings that they mean business. This could accelerate the change where the NDP finds itself the beneficiary of the anti-Tory vote, as the Liberal vote continues to circle the drain.

Well, Vaughan would be "least interesting" to a Liberal-Tory-same-old-story type who's strictly concerned with NDP/left viability.  After all, the NDP hasn't a chance here and shows no real signs of asserting itself as having a chance here--least of all with its own present candidacy.

In UK terms, it'd be like a Labourite declaring as "least interesting" a solid Tory seat poised to fall Lib Dem (or vice versa), with Labour way back in single digits...

Polunatic2

Quote:
After all, the NDP hasn't a chance here and shows no real signs of asserting itself as having a chance here--least of all with its own present candidacy.

There's always the faint hope clause. It is possible. 

adma

Polunatic2 wrote:
There's always the faint hope clause. It is possible. 

But not this time, relative to the other two byelections--which was the point behind "least interesting", anyway.

However, I agree that there should be some kind of astute maximizing-one's-vote strategy in place for Vaughan-type seats; and I already mentioned that a careful parsing of 2008 results should show potential for Laytonian kitchen-table populism, even in supposedly hostile newer subdivisions.  If the NDP could claw their way to 20% in Vaughan (not now, but someday), I'd deem that a major step forward--and perhaps a basis for actual municipal gains, etc...

Wilf Day

adma wrote:
If the NDP could claw their way to 20% in Vaughan (not now, but someday), I'd deem that a major step forward--and perhaps a basis for actual municipal gains, etc...

"Someday" was the Dec. 10, 1990 by-election:

BEVILACQUA, Maurizio
Lib
consultant 
21,332 
49.90% 
 

DEVITA, Peter
N.D.P.
professional engineer 
14,321 
33.50% 
 

O'BRIEN, Michael
P.C.
publisher 
4,618 
10.80% 

jas

Is there anything to the CBC-reported Conservative fantasy that Javier could pull a "surprise win" in Winnipeg North? I haven't heard anything even remotely resembling the possibility. What could possibly give them this idea?

remind remind's picture

They are liars, they do not have any "ideas". They, and indeed many people on either side of the so called right or left, believe if you spout your lies often, and loud enough, other people will come to believe it is so.

KenS

I didnt hear the report.

But it isnt just a fantasy. The Cons have run a shrewd campaign and well resourced campaign. And it is a by-election. While the Liberals are [were] better positioned to pull off an upset, I dont think there is really a substantial difference in the Cons chances.

At this point, I think the Libs have done too many flubs in the campaign. And to the degree that there is any chance of an upset, I think tat may lie with the Cons.

[Which doesnt mean I expect the Cons to come out ahead of the Libs. Having the greater chance to pull off an upset, if anybody will, is not the same thing as being ranked for second. Make sense?]

edmundoconnor

Of course Javier *could* pull off a surprise win in Winnipeg North, but I think it's unlikely.

edmundoconnor

jas wrote:

Is there anything to the CBC-reported Conservative fantasy that Javier could pull a "surprise win" in Winnipeg North? I haven't heard anything even remotely resembling the possibility. What could possibly give them this idea?

Have you got a link for that story? I could only find this.

But the section re: the Dauphin seat in the above story has a wishful Tory spin. My, my, Sopuck is considered a "shoo-in", is he? Did you do ANY on-the-ground reporting on this, CBC, or were you oblivious to Mark making very rude noises about the Tory nomination process, etc., etc.? Rather telling that you mention the Liberal candidate there, but there's no mention of Harder, or of Layton visiting the riding. While Sopuck is *likely* to take the seat, events in the riding make that a good deal less sure than the numbers would suggest.

jas

It was just a brief comment on CBC AM in a general report about the byelections occuring today. I believe it was The Current. And I think it was just the host reading something; she wasn't interviewing anyone.

bekayne

jas wrote:

Is there anything to the CBC-reported Conservative fantasy that Javier could pull a "surprise win" in Winnipeg North? I haven't heard anything even remotely resembling the possibility. What could possibly give them this idea?

The Ottawa Sun has predicted a Conservative win in Winnipeg North

http://www.ottawasun.com/comment/editorial/2010/11/26/16334601.html

jas

The only thing worth reading from that is the one comment.

Correction: two comments. The first two.

Stockholm

The Ottawa Sun seems to have confused an endorsement with a prediction! Its clear that they endorse the Tory candidates in all three ridings - but they then do this bizarre extrapolaytion that somehow the Sun's editorial committee picks the winner of the actual election.

KenS

They're just selling newspapers while engaging in their wishes.

If they are wrong no one will remember. If they are right, they are geniuses.

Debater

Warren Kinsella and other Liberals have been doing interviews over the past week saying it was basically inevitable that the Liberals would lose the Vaughan by-election, but I think that is mainly spin.  It is because of incompetence, in-fighting and declining support that the Liberals are losing the by-election, not because it was inevitable.

First, it was known for months that Maurizio B was leaving, and yet it took until the last minute for the Liberals to get a candidate in place and nominated.

Second, because of his personal connection to Julian Fantino, Maurizio B hasn't even endorsed Genco.  It's rather unusual for the outgoing Liberal MP not to endorse his successor.

Third, Maurizio B should have waited until the next election to step down. I realize he wanted to be Mayor, but by stepping down now it left the Liberals in the lurch.  Liberal turnout is not good during by-elections.  It is better during general elections.  This riding probably would not have been lost if it was occurring during a GE.

edmundoconnor

bekayne wrote:

The Ottawa Sun has predicted a Conservative win in Winnipeg North

http://www.ottawasun.com/comment/editorial/2010/11/26/16334601.html

Ah, the Sun chain of newspapers. The comedy corner of Canadian political analysis.

edmundoconnor

It's interesting that in the Winnipeg Sun comments, posters are (reluctantly) calling Winnipeg North for the NDP.

edmundoconnor

KenS wrote:

If they are wrong no one will remember.

Pity.

KenS

Are the polls closing in 3 minutest now in both Ontario and Manitoba?

KenS

Are the polls closing/closed now in both Ontario and Manitoba?

adma

Wilf Day wrote:

adma wrote:
If the NDP could claw their way to 20% in Vaughan (not now, but someday), I'd deem that a major step forward--and perhaps a basis for actual municipal gains, etc...

"Someday" was the Dec. 10, 1990 by-election:

Even if there's lessons to be (re)learned from the Premier Rae honeymoon, I'm talking about future someday.

Aristotleded24

KenS wrote:
Are the polls closing in 3 minutest now in both Ontario and Manitoba?

They're closing at 9:30 Eastern

remind remind's picture

That was 2 mins ago

WillC

That was 9:30 Atlantic time.  For some reason the keep callling us in Central Canada: Eastern

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

So the polls won't be closed for another hour?

Stockholm

There is also a provincial byelection in Quebec tonight in Kamouraska-Temiscouata. It went Liberal by a very wide margin laqst election, but it is 99% francophone. Given how unpopular Charest is these days - the word is that if the PQ fails to win it - there will be a lot of pressure on Pauline Marois to quit to make way for Gilles Duceppe. The latest polls had the Liberals 2% ahead 9whihc would be an upset.

So far though the PQ is narrowly ahead with 2/3 of the votes in.

http://www.monvote.qc.ca/partielles/fr/resultatsPreliminaires.asp?circ=

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture
Wilf Day

Stockholm wrote:
So far though the PQ is narrowly ahead.

Charest can take solace that the Liberal underdog almost won. Marois can take solace that the PQ won, albeit narrowly. Not a triumph for anyone, eh?

jrootham

Early days yet, but 308 seems to have nailed it.  DSR Con, WN NDP, Vaughan squeaker.

 

bekayne

The vote really polarized in Vaughn-with 10 polls in, Genco & Fantino have 96% between them so far

jrootham

Yes, it does seem the NDP vote has gone to ABF.

(At a guess)

jrootham

I spoke a bit soon, Winnipeg is looking frightening (bur I have no idea where those polls are).

 

edmundoconnor

Sopuck is beginning to look home and dry, although Harder can be proud of the mid-20s percent she's getting. That's respectable in what everyone thought was a complete lock for the Tories.

remind remind's picture

check out the elections results here at our tax payer funded non-partisan Elections Canada website.

Is it my old eyes, or is the font and bolding on the Conservative front runners darker than the font and bolding on the NDP frontrunner?

 

Fantino appears to be getting a run from the Liberals....Chief is well ahead eta or was, when it refreshed, not so much.

edmundoconnor

remind wrote:

Is it my old eyes, or is the font and bolding on the Conservative front runners darker than the font and bolding on the NDP frontrunner?

It's your old eyes, remind. Or maybe even Fantino's name causes the font to change to the colour of the abyss.

jrootham

Ye gods, at 45 polls Winnipeg is closer than Vaughan.

 

edmundoconnor

Javier "surprise win"? Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors.

no1important

Looks like the cons won or will win Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette and Vaughan and the NDP Winnipeg North.

Pretty good for Harper as usually By elections are tough for incumbent governments.

Poor Iggy got a goose egg and lost a riding they held since 2004 (as it is a newer riding)...but really lib or con it is the same old thing these days, both are right wing parties...Yet Iggy and the Lib party will never get the message anyway, they are stuck in their own little world and fail to understand people do not like the leader or the party..

edmundoconnor

jrootham wrote:

Ye gods, at 45 polls Winnipeg is closer than Vaughan.

 

56 votes now. The tension's on. Come on, Kevin Chief, pull away! Pull away!

bekayne

The NDP & Green candidates in Vaughn may finish with fewer votes than Facebook fans

Vaughan – Facebook Count

E-Day at 8:00 PM — Genco – 581, Fantino – 512, Rodriguez-Larrain – 360, Bordian – 206

http://www.punditsguide.ca/

Stockholm

Chief is getting even more of the popular vote than i expected - but I didn't expect the Tories to be almost in single digits!

edmundoconnor

Fantino's ahead, but it's – just – possible to construct a scenario where Genco pulls a rabbit of the hat. I didn't think I'd be saying that around now.

edmundoconnor

Kevin L ahead in Winnipeg North. Yikes, yikes, yikes.

Stockholm

Chief is behind by 10 votes now - yikes!

bekayne

Lamoureux now ahead by 10 votes

Now Chief by 11

Stockholm

now up by 11 vote!

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