Nov 29, 2010 By-elections: news and views II

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bekayne

A lot of pundits will have egg on their faces

edmundoconnor

Including me. The streak continues.

Stockholm

All votes are in in Kamouraska-Temiscouata - PQ won by 196 votes

jrootham

308 was expecting Chief to be over 60%.  OTOH they knew their model did not handle star candidates well.  Who is Lamoureux?

edmundoconnor

.

bekayne

jrootham wrote:

308 was expecting Chief to be over 60%.  OTOH they knew their model did not handle star candidates well.  Who is Lamoureux?

Back to the drawing board

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

All votes are in in Kamouraska-Temiscouata - PQ won by 196 votes

57.65% turnout

edmundoconnor

While it continues to be close in Winnipeg, Lamoureux is running out of polls to bridge the gap. Over halfway now.

jrootham

If you are referring to 308, probably not, or at least not with great fervour.  Star candidates are rare and have much smaller effects in general elections.  

Stockholm

Now Lamoureux is suddenly up by 80 votes - keep in mind that the advance polls are ofte n the last to report and who know who will dominate those.

jrootham

I remember counting a giant (300? vote) advance poll with an incompetent DRO, poll clerk pair.  Exquisite pain, and I missed the victory party when Olivia won.

 

Krago

Could Kevin Bordian's 1.9% in Vaughan be the lowest vote share the NDP has ever received in a federal riding in Ontario?

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

Now Lamoureux is suddenly up by 80 votes - keep in mind that the advance polls are ofte n the last to report and who know who will dominate those.

Now he leads by 310

Stockholm

Now Chief is down by 300 votes - this is looking bad

edmundoconnor

300+ votes now in Winnipeg. NDP Kevin needs a boost round about now.

Stockholm

I assume Lamoureux has a stronghold in the 25% of the riding that is his provincial seat - there may have been a chunk of that whihc just came in.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Why the hell would Winnipeg voters want to move to the right?  They have nothing to gain by voting for the Liberal candidate.

Stockholm

If the NDP loses it will be a bad night for us - but its not that great a night for the Tories either. They were supposedly running a strong campaign in Winnipeg North and got 11% of the vote and Vaughan was a lot closer than people were predicting.

Centrist

I suspect that the big Chief polls have yet to come in. Don't worry Iggy mania has not taken hold.

jrootham

He has been winning in much more than 25% of the polls.

He has been gaining since about poll 10.

It looks like straw clutching time.

 

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Why the hell would Winnipeg voters want to move to the right?  They have nothing to gain by voting for the Liberal candidate.

Maybe people feel it's time for a change in government provincially, and they are taking out that frustration federally.

Maybe Lameroux ran a strong campaign and caught the NDP off guard.

Maybe Chief faced some backlash over Axworthygate.

Stockholm

Maybe there are more closet racists than we like to think who won't vote for an FN candidate. I doubt if there ever was any "Axworthygate" - and it seemed to me that there was really almost no story there unless you were a major political junkie like we are.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
Maybe there are more closet racists than we like to think who won't vote for an FN candidate.

Could be. Anti-First Nations bigotry is a huge problem in Manitoba, even in a "progressive" city like Winnipeg.

bekayne

The Conservatives are running below their core vote in Winnipeg North

Stockholm

The last few polls have cut the margin from 330 to 230 - there is still hope.

bekayne

Green vote has evaporated in Winnipeg North & Vaughn

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:
The Conservatives are running below their core vote in Winnipeg North

Maybe right-of-centre voters voted strategically for Lameroux.

Stockholm

At least we have one thing to cheer about!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Maybe they're voting tactically for the Liberals to stop Chief.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

BTW, regarding Vaughan...does anybody know what the "United Party" thing is about?

bekayne

Votes coming in very slooowww now in Winnipeg North

Aristotleded24

Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.

I think it's time to call this one.

Stockholm

This actually won't be a bad night for the Liberals - winning Wpg North is an upset and their chances in Vaughan were so heavily discounted that coming within 3% of Fantino will be seen as exceeding expectations.

Cueball Cueball's picture

Yup. You can spin this as victory for your guys, I am sure.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.

I think it's time to call this one.

You sound happy about that.

Stockholm

Have you come here to gloat?

Cueball Cueball's picture

I was congratulating you.

bekayne

Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.

I think it's time to call this one.

You sound happy about that.

Excuse me? Where did you get the idea that I was cheering for the Liberals? Especially since Lameroux is a loudmouth.

What a rebuke. First municipal elections, now Winnipeg North. This is not a good barometer heading into the next provincial election.

Sellinger should indeed be concerned.

Wilf Day

Looks like very low turnouts everywhere, even Vaughan! Winnipeg North is going to be under 30%. Did some stay home because Kevin Chief was a sure thing? And others because they weren't motivated to vote for a FN candidate?

Cueball Cueball's picture

bekayne wrote:

Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?

Wouldn't that have been more likely if the NDP had hung onto its portion of the national poll share?

bekayne

Lamoureaux leads by 382; Greens lead Pirates by 7 (130/153)

Stockholm

I doubt if people thought it was a sure thing. More likely its that in a byelection suddenly local candidates become all-important and like it or not Lamoureux was probably better known as a provincial MLA.

jrootham

Cueball, it's a real good thing you aren't in my presence right now.  I am pissed off enough about this that I would kick your ass if you said that crap in front of me.

 

Bookish Agrarian

in case anyone is counting the gap in Wpg NC is slowly closing with about 23 polls left it is down to 392.  It could still be a squeaker yet.  Although that is a bit of a steep hill yet.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

And this thread just jumped the shark.

Aristotleded24

Aristotleded24 wrote:
Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.

I think it's time to call this one.

The Winnipeg Free Press has made it official.

jrootham

Ken Burch wrote:

BTW, regarding Vaughan...does anybody know what the "United Party" thing is about?

Second level spinoff from the PCs.

 

Stockholm

The gap just narrowed to 203 votes

Bookish Agrarian

make that 193   Could we be heading to recount territory?

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