Nov 29, 2010 By-elections: news and views II

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Aristotleded24

Cueball wrote:
bekayne wrote:
Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?
Wouldn't that have been more likely if the NDP had hung onto its portion of the national poll share?

There was evidently a strong anybody-but-Fantino push in a riding which is a traditional NDP wasteland anyways. In a close race, we often see marginal parties in that riding lose vote share, like the Conservatives did in Winnipeg. I don't think Vaugnh is really a national bellwether. Winnipeg North is far more concerning.

Centrist

193 vote gap with 21 polls still to report in WN. That can be made up very quickly.

Stockholm

Now just a 180 vote gap

bekayne

Both Vaughn (389) & Winnipeg North (180) have just tightened up

Bookish Agrarian

now 180

Stockholm

Vaughan is suddenly getting much closer as well fantino is down to a 300 vote lead.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Lamoureux-wins-upset-victo..., it is time to give up:[/url]

Quote:
Former Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux defeated aboriginal activist and NDP candidate Kevin Chief in the largely inner-city riding.

Lamoureux had 6,118 votes to Chief's 5,656 votes.

bekayne

CBC has just called Winnipeg North

Stockholm

But, but, but I don't understand - the Sun newspapers assure me that Julie Javier would win Winnipeg North for the Conservatives and she only got 10% of the vote. What on earth happened???

Cueball Cueball's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Cueball wrote:
bekayne wrote:
Where did this "Conservatives will win Vaughn by 10,000 votes" thing come from?
Wouldn't that have been more likely if the NDP had hung onto its portion of the national poll share?

There was evidently a strong anybody-but-Fantino push in a riding which is a traditional NDP wasteland anyways. In a close race, we often see marginal parties in that riding lose vote share, like the Conservatives did in Winnipeg. I don't think Vaugnh is really a national bellwether. Winnipeg North is far more concerning.

Don't I know it.

bekayne

Fantino's sweating:gap now 372

Aristotleded24

Well Cueball, there is far more to this country than what happens in Toronto.

Stockholm

I'm very disappointed to lose Winnipeg North since I think Kevin Chief is such a superb candidate - but I think its even less of a national bellwether than Vaughan.

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

But, but, but I don't understand - the Sun newspapers assure me that Julie Javier would win Winnipeg North for the Conservatives and she only got 10% of the vote. What on earth happened???

She's been sliding all night & could dip under 10%. Some reporters are mocking the Conservatives in their tweets:"What happened to that crime issue?"

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Lameroux just jumped ahead by about 400.

I think it's time to call this one.

You sound happy about that.

Excuse me? Where did you get the idea that I was cheering for the Liberals? Especially since Lameroux is a loudmouth.

What a rebuke. First municipal elections, now Winnipeg North. This is not a good barometer heading into the next provincial election.

Sellinger should indeed be concerned.

I misunderstood your post upthread, in which you sounded like you thought the NDP had defeat coming.  If you're just disappointed in the lackluster NDP premier, well, that's something else.  Sorry.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch: apology accepted.

Stockholm

I think Cueball is the only one jumping for joy over the NDP losing a seat.

Wilf Day

Hardly a Liberal triumph night when they are barely getting their rebate (10%) in Dauphin.

Sean in Ottawa

shit

Hunky_Monkey

180 difference with 20 polls left... and CBC called it?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If the Winnepeg North result stands, I hope the Manitoba federal NDP doesn't conclude that they can't nominate FN candidates anymore. 

jrootham

The NDP had about an 8,000 vote dropoff in Winnipeg.  

How did that happen?  What kind of warnings were there on the ground?

Threads

H_M: presumably the CBC is calling it on the basis of polls that have been counted and reported, but haven't yet been added to the Elections Canada database.

Aristotleded24

Wilf Day wrote:
Hardly a Liberal triumph night when they are barely getting their rebate (10%) in Dauphin.

Dauphin is a marginal riding anyways where the Liberals were not expecting to do that well. They've won Winnipeg North and they may still hold off Fantino. 2 of 3 is not that bad, it's a great night for the Liberals.

Stockholm

I doubt that very much. In any case the NDP has a whole bunch of FN candidates already nominated. I wonder if these results will cause the Tories to conclude that they can't nominate Filipina candidates anymore?

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
If the Winnepeg North result stands, I hope the Manitoba federal NDP doesn't conclude that they can't nominate FN candidates anymore.

An 8 point jump for the First Nations candidate in Dauphin is nothing to sneeze at.

Stockholm

jrootham wrote:

The NDP had about an 8,000 vote dropoff in Winnipeg.  

How did that happen?  What kind of warnings were there on the ground?

I would guess that part of that would be that in any byelection the turnout is so much lower that you know you're going to lose a big chunk of your votes - even if you win.

Threads

To go along with my last post: Elections Canada just added the count from two polls. With 18 polls to go, Lamoureux's now got a 204 vote margin. In order to beat Lamoureux, Chief would have to average at minimum +11.5 votes in the remaining polls.

Cueball Cueball's picture

Stockholm wrote:

I think Cueball is the only one jumping for joy over the NDP losing a seat.

It was you who was applauding the Liberals for winning in Winnipeg, and coming close in Vaughan!

Stockholm wrote:

This actually won't be a bad night for the Liberals - winning Wpg North is an upset and their chances in Vaughan were so heavily discounted that coming within 3% of Fantino will be seen as exceeding expectations.

Aristotleded24

Cueball wrote:
Stockholm wrote:
I think Cueball is the only one jumping for joy over the NDP losing a seat.

It was you who was applauding the Liberals for winning in Winnipeg, and coming close in Vaughan!

Are you that dense? You don't have to particularly like a candidate to acknowledge that (s)he is doing well.

jrootham

Cueball, here's a hint about thinking straight. There is a difference between evaluating something from the point of view of the other, and applauding things.

Try reading for comprehension sometime, you might come to like it.

 

Aristotleded24

So the Free Press numbers appear to be a little off, but the spread still favours Lameroux.

bekayne

13 polls left, 609 vote lead

jas

For those wondering about Winnipeg, we just had a civic election (in which Judy W-L lost). Vote drop-off could well be a result of this. As well, although the riding has been NDP, Chief is the relative newcomer. Lamoureux could be considered a kind of incumbent as he has held the Inkster (in North Winnipeg) riding provincially for the most part since 1988. I believe it has always been known that it would be a tight race between the Liberals and the NDP here. I'm a little embarrassed I got momentarily worried about the Conservative candidate, though.

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

BTW, regarding Vaughan...does anybody know what the "United Party" thing is about?

From the PunditsGguide

  • Meanwhile, the anti-Conservative conservative parties are splintering: in addition to Progressive Canadian party candidate Dorian Baxter, Vaughan will be playing host to the first ever candidacy of the recently-registered United Party of Canada, whose leader Brian Jedan is also nominated.  The United Party was formed by some former members of the Progressive Canadian party, who are red tories unhappy with the merger of the former Progressive Conservative party with the Canadian Alliance.  They'll be joined by Paolo Fabrizio of the Libertarian Party, who promises to be a better taxfighter, and even more resolutely opposed to the gun registry, than other conservatives.  The Christian Heritage Party is fielding candidates in both Manitoba ridings (Jerome Dondo in DSRM and Eric Truijen in Winnipeg North), but not in Vaughan. Finally, at the other end of the spectrum, Ed Komarniski will run for the Communist Party of Canada in Winnipeg North, and we've already mentioned Jeff Coleman of the Pirate Party running there, and independent Leslie Bory in Vaughan.  This rounds out the full slate of by-election candidates.  Advanced voting starts on Friday, November 19.

Debater

I didn't think tonight would be a good night for the Liberals.  

I'm surprised that they were able to win in Winnipeg North and have come so close in Vaughan.  Guess tomorrow won't be as bad a day for Ignatieff as originally thought.  Just as well for him.

I think tonight's results are a lesson though as to what happens when MP's decide to jump ship during the middle of a term rather than waiting until the next election to retire.  Bevilacqua's decision to quit and run for Mayor appears to have cost the Liberals in Vaughan, and Judy W-L's decision to quit and run for Mayor appears to have cost the NDP in Winnipeg North.

The same thing happened a while back when Paul Crete of the BQ jumped ship to run provincially in Quebec and it cost the BQ a seat to the Cons in K-RDP.

Cueball Cueball's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Cueball wrote:
Stockholm wrote:
I think Cueball is the only one jumping for joy over the NDP losing a seat.

It was you who was applauding the Liberals for winning in Winnipeg, and coming close in Vaughan!

Are you that dense? You don't have to particularly like a candidate to acknowledge that (s)he is doing well.

That would be Chantal Hebert's defense.

bekayne

peterjcassidy wrote:

  •  The United Party was formed by some former members of the Progressive Canadian party, who are red tories unhappy with the merger of the former Progressive Conservative party with the Canadian Alliance.  

So why are members of the United Party unhappy with the Progressive Canadians? What will disgruntled former members of the United Party call their party when they form it?

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:
13 polls left, 609 vote lead

2 major media outlets, the CBC and the Winnipeg Free Press, have already called Winnipeg for the Liberals. Do you think they would have done that if the outcome was not certain?

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

bekayne wrote:

peterjcassidy wrote:

  •  The United Party was formed by some former members of the Progressive Canadian party, who are red tories unhappy with the merger of the former Progressive Conservative party with the Canadian Alliance.  

So why are members of the United Party unhappy with the Progressive Canadians? What will disgruntled former members of the United Party call their party when they form it?

De-United party?

ghoris

Chief has conceded. It's over.

No sugar-coating or spinning this result - the NDP blew this one big time.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The "Reunited(and it feels so good)Party"? 

(A party that would also appeal to the large "diehard 'Peaches And Herb' Fan" demographic.)

Stockholm

I think that because Ignatieff was under the gun to begin with and because he is widely seen as a liability for the Liberals - he had way more at stake tonight.

For the NDP, its sad to lose a byelection, but no one ever cast this as some "supreme test of Layton's leadership" and it was very much a local campaign. I think that for the NDP, this is a bit like how the BQ felt after losing Roberval in 2007 and after losing Montmagny-Lislet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup last year. A blow in the short term - but ultimately, the BQ picked itself up and did very well afterwards - and now no one said then or now "Duceppe has to go because he lost MIKR". I suspect that the NDP has some negative momentum right now in Manitoba after the municipal elections and with a provincial government that may be nearing the "best before date" (as all governments do).

Meanwhile, what a TOTAL humiliation for the Green Party. Less than 1% in Winnipeg North, 1.2% in Vaughan and 6% and a very distant fourth in Dauphin - despite an endorsement by outgoing Tory MP Inky Mark.

Aristotleded24

ghoris, what do you think about the reasons that have been given in this thread for the NDP defeat? Do you have any comments you wish to add?

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

The "Reunited(and it feels so good)Party"? 

(A party that would also appeal to the large "diehard 'Peaches And Herb' Fan" demographic.)

There might be a split with the "Shake Your Groove Thing" faction

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

I think that because Ignatieff was under the gun to begin with and because he is widely seen as a liability for the Liberals - he had way more at stake tonight.

For the NDP, its sad to lose a byelection, but no one ever cast this as some "supreme test of Layton's leadership" and it was very much a local campaign. I think that for the NDP, this is a bit like how the BQ felt after losing Roberval in 2007 and after losing Montmagny-Lislet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup last year. A blow in the short term - but ultimately, the BQ picked itself up and did very well afterwards - and now no one said then or now "Duceppe has to go because he lost MIKR". I suspect that the NDP has some negative momentum right now in Manitoba after the municipal elections and with a provincial government that may be nearing the "best before date" (as all governments do).

Meanwhile, what a TOTAL humiliation for the Green Party. Less than 1% in Winnipeg North, 1.2% in Vaughan and 6% and a very distant fourth in Dauphin - despite an endorsement by outgoing Tory MP Inky Mark.

I agree that tonight's results are not a referendum on Layton's leadership, although it is a blow to the NDP.

But as for Duceppe losing those BQ by-elections, they weren't a threat to his leadership because he is the undisputed leader of the BQ.  He towers over the party and no one can challenge him.  They want him to stay for as long as they can get him to.  They fear the day Duceppe will leave, so his position is secure for as long as he wants it.

Looking at the current results, the Liberals are now well-ahead in Winnipeg North (by 6 percentage points and 900 votes) and have had a strong 2nd place finish in Vaughan.  Guess Ignatieff is a happy boy tonight.

Stockholm

ghoris wrote:
Chief has conceded. It's over. No sugar-coating or spinning this result - the NDP blew this one big time.

Did the NDP "blow it" or did the Liberals win it? I'm not there so I can't say, but is there evidence that the NDP made any major strategic errors in the campaign or didn't put in the resources required - or did the Lamoureux simply get more votes?

The results tonight will probably put the Liberals in a bullish enough mood that they will be in no mood to prop up the Tories in the budget and the fact that the PQ won the byelection in Kamouraska means that Marois will live to fight another day and so Duceppe will not be looking for a quick exit strategy. So I think an election in the Spring is more likely than ever. Will Chief want to run again or will Judy W-L want to make a comeback? In the context of a general election just months away - the NDP could very easily win back that seat.

Aristotleded24

Given that people are sending clear messages that they are not happy with the status quo and the same gang running things into the ground, I wouldn't count on Judy being able to win back this seat if she were to go federally again.

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

ghoris wrote:
Chief has conceded. It's over. No sugar-coating or spinning this result - the NDP blew this one big time.

Did the NDP "blow it" or did the Liberals win it? I'm not there so I can't say, but is there evidence that the NDP made any major strategic errors in the campaign or didn't put in the resources required - or did the Lamoureux simply get more votes?

The results tonight will probably put the Liberals in a bullish enough mood that they will be in no mood to prop up the Tories in the budget and the fact that the PQ won the byelection in Kamouraska means that Marois will live to fight another day and so Duceppe will not be looking for a quick exit strategy. So I think an election in the Spring is more likely than ever. Will Chief want to run again or will Judy W-L want to make a comeback? In the context of a general election just months away - the NDP could very easily win back that seat.

Yes, I think it will be interesting to see what the NDP does in Winnipeg North, and what the Liberals do in Vaughan.  The NDP will obviously want to make another run at WN before Lamoreux develops too much of an incumbency advantage, and since Fantino had a slim win tonight, the Liberals now know that Fantino is beatable if they run a strong campaign against him in the next election.

But wouldn't it be considered somewhat presumptuous of Judy W-L to run for a seat she just gave up?

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
Which "gang" are you referring to?

The "gang" basically includes incumbent politicians and big names and players from the past. There is a general sense of malaise with politics, and people are in a mood for change. One easy way to accomplish that is to vote against whomever is there now.

I'm not saying it makes any logical sense, but it is the political context to which we must adapt.

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