Outremont By-Election

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NorthReport
Outremont By-Election

The more I see of Jagmeet Singh, the more I like.

Jagmeet appears to have the royal jelly!

Jagmeet Singh Seriously Considering Risky Run For Mulcair’s Old Montreal 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/04/11/jagmeet-singh-mulcair-outremont...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Jagmeet appears to have to royal jelly!

Does he secrete it from glands in his head, like bees do?

I think now we all have reason to need to know what's under those colourful turbans.

robbie_dee

Julia Sanchez to carry NDP banner in Outremont

 

Quote:

The seeds of the NDP's 'Orange Wave' in Quebec were planted with Tom Mulcair's 2007 breakthrough in the Montreal riding of Outremont. Julia Sanchez wants to keep it in the NDP's column.

Sanchez, a political novice with a background in the humanitarian sector, will be the party's candidate for Mulcair's seat when a byelection is called, likely later this fall.

The riding has had symbolic meaning for New Democrats in Quebec ever since Mulcair won the traditionally Liberal fortress over a decade ago. That's increasing the pressure on the party to hold Outremont when a new vote is held.

A newcomer to politics, Sanchez said that she knows she has big shoes to fill — those of an experienced MP with a high profile in Quebec politics.

"I am very aware that it will not be easy. It doesn't scare me. I am someone who is used to taking on big challenges," said Sanchez in an interview with Radio-Canada.

"We have some catching up to do, we have a lot of work to do. I'm ready.

"I'm taking nothing for granted. I know that the party needs some good news in Quebec. That motivates me."

Sanchez's candidacy will have to be made official by a vote of local party members, which will take place at the end of August. But the vote is merely a formality. Sources say that she is the party's choice and no other candidate has expressed interest in the nomination.

 

progressive17 progressive17's picture

At least the NDP are not polling any worse in Quebec than they are in Canada as a whole.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

This will test two things:

1) Whether the NDP has any chance of holding onto ANY seats in Quebec-and thus, any chance of holding their ground, let alone persuading any significant number of voters who didn't back them in 2015 to do so in 2019.

2) Whether Jagmeet Singh has any political appeal at all as leader.  He's going to have to campaign extensively in this by-election and he's going to actually have to talk about some ideas(not necessarily release a detailed platform, but at least get SOMETHING out there)because we've already established that he can't help the party on personal charisma alone(he may have it, but unless it transfers into actual support at the polls, any personal charisma he possesses is useless in the job he's trying to do);

It's going to be virtually impossible to make any case for keeping Jagmeet as leader if the party loses Outremont-especially if it loses badly.  If he can't at a bare minimum lead the NDP to a competitive, respectable showing in Outremont, in the only seat the party held in Quebec BEFORE the Orange Wave, what possible chance is there that he can do so anywhere else?  It's going to be meaningless to have a leader to might gain a handful of seats in B.C. and the Prairies but causes a wipeout everywhere else.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
It's going to be meaningless to have a leader to might gain a handful of seats in B.C. and the Prairies but causes a wipeout everywhere else.

Not necessarily so. For the most part, any seats the NDP gains in BC and the Prairies will come at the expense of the Conservatives, which means fewer seats in the Conservative column, which lessens the likelihood of a Conservative victory, and then we can have a more even-headed level rational discussion of Canadian politics going beyond "CONSERVATIVES EVIL SCARY BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Just because the NDP lose Outremont may have nothing to do with Singh. It may be because the voters think the NDP sucks. Don't forget that factor!
 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
It's going to be meaningless to have a leader to might gain a handful of seats in B.C. and the Prairies but causes a wipeout everywhere else.

Not necessarily so. For the most part, any seats the NDP gains in BC and the Prairies will come at the expense of the Conservatives, which means fewer seats in the Conservative column, which lessens the likelihood of a Conservative victory, and then we can have a more even-headed level rational discussion of Canadian politics going beyond "CONSERVATIVES EVIL SCARY BAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

What possible chance, though, will there be to make such gains if everybody knows that the NDP's going to be stuck in third-place, probably with fewer seats overall than it has now?   It's not possible for the party to end up with an overall gain in seats if they win none in Quebec.  There's no possible way there's 17 or more Conservative seats in the West that are flippable by the Dippers if the party looks like it's in a slow death everyplace else.   

And it's not as though there has to be a choice between trying to keep the party alive in Quebec and at least regain the 2015 losses in Atlantic Canada OR trying to gain in the West.   There aren't that many Western voters who'd be impressed by an NDP campaign that imitated David Lewis' nobody-east-of-the-Ottawa River-matters-to-us approach.

The voters who'd flip from the Cons to the NDP would do so because they were annoyed by the Cons pro-corporate economic policies, not by some fixation with putting francophones in Montreal in their place.

cco

The only salient bit of information in the recent news, for me, is that the party picked a candidate, announced that candidate, and went so far as to spoon-feed the media the message that the riding association's vote is a "formality".

R.E.Wood

If the NDP was likely going to hold Outremont I suspect there would be candidates eager to seek the nomination. The fact that there are none, and that the Party (in its infinite wisdom) has appointed a political neophyte doesn't bode well.

And as others discussed in this thread the possibility of seat gains in BC and the Prairies, I'll just add that I don't see any chance of seat gains in the Prairies at all with Singh as leader, and suspect that the NDP may be near its upper threshold in BC as well.

pietro_bcc

I'm sure Julia Sanchez is a nice person and is a competant person, but my opinion remains the same. Without a star candidate like a Julius Grey, the NDP was going to lose regardless of who the candidate is and lose badly.