Outremont by-election February 25, 2019

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

OK, what I said was a slight exxagerration...but does no one find it suspicious that virtually everything the man did as leader, EVERY single step, had the effect of driving NDP support down in the polls?  Or that he just happened to crash in the economic debate at the precise moment when doing so would do the NDP the most possible electoral damage in 2015?  

No, I don't find it suspicious in the least. I think Mulcair was every bit as left wing as Jack Layton and the party bureaucracy which Layton installed, which is to say mushy middle at best. Remember the interview Layton did with Mansbridge during the 2011 campaign? I can't seem to find a link just now, but I have posted it in another thread a few years ago. In it, Layton was challenged by Mansbridge to name the big differences between his program and that of the Liberals under Ignatieff. He admitted that there were no significant differences, but insisted that the NDP would keep the same promises that the Liberals would break. Mulcair just carried on that tradition.

I wasn't addressing the question of where Mulcair was on the ideological spectrum there.  Or Layton's.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

wage zombie wrote:

nicky wrote:

Ken’s fantasies even stretch to Jeremy Corbyn being a good leader.

You're coming back on here to mock people's opinions on Jeremy Corbin?  Really?

That's nicky...he thinks a guy who lost 50 seats for the NDP was a great leader, but the guy who gained 3o seats for Labour is a failure in an election where no "moderate" leader could have gained any significant number of seats for the party.  I'll end this thread drift by pointing out that if you go to the actual Corbyn thread, nicky has never posted anything didn't unquestioningly conform to the Blair/Thatcher "line" on all issues in UK politics.  Over and out on that.

robbie_dee

So does SNC Lavalin help or hurt the NDP vis a vis the Liberals in this riding? Does it revive the stink of corruption around the Liberals or do they get credit for trying to protect Quebec jobs, even if by questionable means? Or is it simply a non-factor because of how far the NDP has already fallen?

nicky

In Ken's world a gain of seats from 232 to 262 is a gain of 45 seats.

His arithmetic is as sound as his analysis of British political developments.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

In Ken's world a gain of seats from 232 to 262 is a gain of 45 seats.

His arithmetic is as sound as his analysis of British political developments.

A trivial math error, which I've corrected.  And if the Labour Right hadn't kept demanding that Jeremy resign the leadership DURING the election campaign, at a time when it wasn't even possible to choose a new leader-no party in UK history has ever changed its leader during an election campaign-and hadn't essentially been campaigning for the Tories during that campaign, Labour clearly would have won.  And it shows you are losing the argument that you have taken to personally insulting me and now stalking me in other threads.  

 

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

So does SNC Lavalin help or hurt the NDP vis a vis the Liberals in this riding? Does it revive the stink of corruption around the Liberals or do they get credit for trying to protect Quebec jobs, even if by questionable means? Or is it simply a non-factor because of how far the NDP has already fallen?

I think it damages the Liberals but the NDP is down too far for it to make the difference.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

BTW, nicky, you could have used the time you've wasted verbally abusing me to go to Outremont and help the NDP candidate there, or done something to help the Singh in Burnaby.  Why, instead of doing something useful like that, are you so fixated on sneering at me because I don't want Labour to switch to a leader who would be bland passionless and devoid of any core values?  It's not my fault that nobody on this board shares your support of Thacherism-Blairism.

Mighty Middle

nicky wrote:

In Ken's world a gain of seats from 232 to 262 is a gain of 45 seats.

His arithmetic is as sound as his analysis of British political developments.

Nicky a gain of of over 150 seats by Justin Trudeau in 2015 is .... ?

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

So does SNC Lavalin help or hurt the NDP vis a vis the Liberals in this riding? Does it revive the stink of corruption around the Liberals or do they get credit for trying to protect Quebec jobs, even if by questionable means? Or is it simply a non-factor because of how far the NDP has already fallen?

I don't know how it is playing in this riding but normally a scandal like this would make soft Liberal voters stay at home and if this doesn't invigorate the NDP volunteers on the ground then nothing will. Given the normal abysmal turn out rates by-elections are about who shows up at the polls.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It'd be nice if the NDP could at least make it close in Outremont.  Since Singh seems to have Burnaby won now, they should really send whatever resources they can to Outremont and push for an upset. 

nicky

So I trust you are campaigning in the by-elections Ken instead of making excuses for Corbyn.

i live 500 miles from Outremont and 3000 miles from Burnaby so it is nice to hear you are taking up the slack

pietro_bcc

The NDP have a glimmer of a chance because of this, but I think what is more likely is that instead of winning with 60% of the vote, they'll squeak by with 40% or so.

lagatta4

Which is far better than losing, given the number of parties here ... there. I don't live in that riding, but about 15 minutes walk from it. And about the same distance the other way to Trudeau's riding. Where I live is a little triangle of  Rosem ont-La Petite-Patrie between Outremont and Papineau.  

Pondering

I haven't paid any attention to the campaigns. I don't know who my candidates are although I know the NDP one is a woman. It doesn't matter. I already decided I'm voting NDP. 

WWWTT

lagatta4 wrote:

Which is far better than losing, given the number of parties here ... there. I don't live in that riding, but about 15 minutes walk from it. And about the same distance the other way to Trudeau's riding. Where I live is a little triangle of  Rosem ont-La Petite-Patrie between Outremont and Papineau.  

I think lagatta4 probably has the best feel about this by election (Unionist to) You seem inclined to believe that Sanchez will win. 

Julia Sanchez, to me, is a very very strong candidate! And I suspect you see the same in Julia. 

Keep us posted thanks

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Pondering wrote:

I haven't paid any attention to the campaigns. I don't know who my candidates are although I know the NDP one is a woman. It doesn't matter. I already decided I'm voting NDP. 

Your lack of action in this campaign speaks volumes about the depth of your commitment. I am sure the NDP would love to have another door knocker or telephoner or any other of the many jobs that actually win elections.

NorthReport

You got that right Krop

I went into a fast food restaurant in Vancouver Kingsway last election and the person that served me noticed the Don Davies button that I was wearing and said she was going to vote NDP I asked her why and she stated because he was the only candidate that actually knocked on her door 

Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I haven't paid any attention to the campaigns. I don't know who my candidates are although I know the NDP one is a woman. It doesn't matter. I already decided I'm voting NDP. 

Your lack of action in this campaign speaks volumes about the depth of your commitment. I am sure the NDP would love to have another door knocker or telephoner or any other of the many jobs that actually win elections.

You are right. I am no more commited to the NDP than I was to the Liberals in 2015. The NDP is a house divided and even if it were not they leave me generally underwhelmed.  I have said all along that we can't judge Singh until the campaign and I still believe that but even so the time has been wearing my patience thin. 

 To go door-knocking I would have to be inspired. The NDP does not inspire me at the moment. 

swallow swallow's picture

You should check out Julia Sanchez, she might inspire you. She would be a good MP too.

robbie_dee
lagatta4

She's an excellent candidate and definitely on the left of the NDP - her environment rally welcomed Alexandre Boulerice and Niki Ashton. I most certainly would not vote or campaign for just any NDP candidate.

She has a lot of volunteers and a strong presence; I certainly hope she will win, but the Liberals do have a powerful machine and a lot of money. They made a mistake by not having Rachel Bendayan present at the all-candidates debate about cultural issues. But while there are a great many cultural workers in parts of the riding, there are other areas where that is not such a major issue.

lagatta4

She's an excellent candidate and definitely on the left of the NDP - her environment rally welcomed Alexandre Boulerice and Niki Ashton. I most certainly would not vote or campaign for just any NDP candidate.

She has a lot of volunteers and a strong presence; I certainly hope she will win, but the Liberals do have a powerful machine and a lot of money. They made a mistake by not having Rachel Bendayan present at the all-candidates debate about cultural issues. But while there are a great many cultural workers in parts of the riding, there are other areas where that is not such a major issue.

pietro_bcc

The fact that Alexandre Boulerice and Niki Ashton were the two MPs who she chose to invite to her environmental rally alone leads me to believe that she's on the right part of the political spectrum for me. Also not showing up for a debate is always a bad look, it shows a degree of presumptuousness on the part of the Liberals, like they don't have to campaign and will win anyway. That's something that's always dangerous for a front runner to think. Just look at the example of the by-election for Riviere des Prairies Pointe aux Trembles' mayor position for an example of such assumptions coming back to bite the frontrunner.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I haven't paid any attention to the campaigns. I don't know who my candidates are although I know the NDP one is a woman. It doesn't matter. I already decided I'm voting NDP. 

Your lack of action in this campaign speaks volumes about the depth of your commitment. I am sure the NDP would love to have another door knocker or telephoner or any other of the many jobs that actually win elections.

You are right. I am no more commited to the NDP than I was to the Liberals in 2015. The NDP is a house divided and even if it were not they leave me generally underwhelmed.  I have said all along that we can't judge Singh until the campaign and I still believe that but even so the time has been wearing my patience thin. 

 To go door-knocking I would have to be inspired. The NDP does not inspire me at the moment. 

Do you have any awareness of the irony in you being the one who says that, given that it's you who have spent the whole time arguing that the NDP must never say anything inspirational, because anything visionary would drive away the "low-information voters"?  

cco

I went to the all-candidates debate last night and suddenly realized I'd been wrong about who the PPC candidate is. It's this guy, not that guy (or that one). Mind you, the former two have names that are close to each other, are pretty similar in ideology, share a poor command of French, and even have more than a passing resemblance, so I'm not the only one to have made that mistake.

pietro_bcc

Honestly when I first saw the name I assumed it was Jeremy Searle as well XD

Hunky_Monkey

JD Bellavance mentioned on Power Play that a poll conducted in Outremont shows the race becoming tight probably due to the recent SNC-LAVALIN controversy.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
JD Bellavance mentioned on Power Play that a poll conducted in Outremont shows the race becoming tight probably due to the recent SNC-LAVALIN controversy.

It would be great if Justin's own arrogance in this scandal were to cost the party a seat his party has felt entitled to ever since Mulcair stood down. It would be a huge embarassment to him even if what he'd assume would be a landslide ended up being reduced to a squeaker.

WWWTT

I’ll raise you one Ken Burch! If Julia Sanchez can pull this out, it will be such a huge victory for the NDP, in particular the further left element in the NDP.

Her victory may have the potential of turning the NDP’s prospects leading into the 2019 general election to a sincere genuine socialist alternative to the liberals. Something that in my opinion has eluded the NDP in the eyes of many Canadians for decades. 

josh

The powers that be would have to actually provide a clear left alternative to the Liberals.  They have not shown a willingness to do so.

WWWTT

Ya that’s why I used the word “may” josh.

No one has won anything yet. Speculation for half a week. 

lagatta4

Yes. Julia, Alexandre Boulerice, Niki Ashton and the return of Svend can't reverse the NDP's rightward course alone, but there is no hope without such initiatives. Would a party based on the LEAP actually be an alternative to the NDP and the Greens, and progressive forces in the Bloc (if any are left) ? I do think bold policy alternatives to the Libs are needed.

pietro_bcc

I actually heard an NDP commercial on CJAD today for the Outremont by-election. This greatly raises my hopes and makes me think that the NDP are at least in the running for an underdog win. If they were way behind, there's no way they would waste money on an ad buy in the english market no less (especially considering the fact that the NDP doesn't have a ton of money to spare.)

lagatta4

It does sound hopeful. I never listen to commercial radio, at least not in French or English. Occasionally in Italian or Spanish, but much less nowadays with Internet I can listen to better programming. But a lot of people do listen to such stations, so it is important to reach them.

R.E.Wood

The Orange Wave's last stand? Outremont byelection a critical test for NDP in Quebec

Though the Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois, the Greens and Maxime Bernier's upstart People's Party of Canada are all running candidates, none of them is expected to be a factor.

It is, for all intents and purposes, a two-way race between the NDP and the Liberals.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818

pietro_bcc

Also the ad is hitting the right notes and attacking the Liberals on the right issues. Climate change and electoral reform, which are the 2 clear areas of vulnerability on the Liberals' left flank. If Julia Sanchez loses, I hope that the NDP have her as a candidate again in the general election.

R.E.Wood

Impact of political scandal, religious symbols debate felt in Outremont byelection

Julia Sanchez, the NDP's candidate in Monday's Outremont byelection, says people in the riding talk to her about climate change, wealth inequality — and sometimes what the leader of her party wears on his head.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is Sikh and wears a turban, making him conspicuously religious in front of a heavily secular province. His French is also weaker than the two previous party leaders, complicating the job of appealing to Quebec voters.

Even in multicultural Outremont, located in the geographic centre of the island of Montreal with one of the largest ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities in North America, Singh's religious clothing is on some voters' minds.

"Some people are concerned about (the turban)," Sanchez said during a recent interview following a candidate debate in the riding. She said when she knocks on doors, "It's definitely not the main thing people bring up .... It does come up."

Kathryn Furlong, 43, who attended the debate, said she voted for Sanchez, an economist with experience in humanitarian work and climate activism, at an advance poll. She has voted Liberal in the past "but never by conviction. Sometimes to keep the out the Conservatives."

She said "it's a sad notion and a sad question," referring to anyone who would have an issue with the NDP leader's expression of faith. "And I think political parties in Quebec try to exploit that issue." ...

... McGill University philosopher Charles Taylor, a longtime NDP supporter who campaigned with Sanchez ahead of the byelection, said the cool reception Singh has so far received in Quebec is due to the fact he doesn't yet have a seat in Parliament. Singh is his party's candidate in one of the other two byelections Monday, in the British Columbia riding of Burnaby South.

Once he gets inside the House of Commons and is regularly in front of the cameras, Taylor predicted, "Quebecers will learn to like him. He's very engaging, but he's just not on television all the time."

The Coalition Avenir Quebec won last fall's provincial election with a promise to prohibit some public servants, including teachers, from wearing religious symbols on the job. But Taylor said Singh is "going to make a case for: 'You can wear this kind of thing and be a perfectly reasonable person.' And that's something that Quebecers are able to listen to."

 

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/02/24/impact-of-political-scandal...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

R.E.Wood wrote:

Impact of political scandal, religious symbols debate felt in Outremont byelection

Julia Sanchez, the NDP's candidate in Monday's Outremont byelection, says people in the riding talk to her about climate change, wealth inequality — and sometimes what the leader of her party wears on his head.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is Sikh and wears a turban, making him conspicuously religious in front of a heavily secular province. (emphasis added)

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/02/24/impact-of-political-scandal...

This is rather sloppy reporting or this is mythology. I do not know what this reporter means because Quebec is one of the least secular provinces. BC and the Yukon are the only regions of our 13 that have more people claiming no religious affiliation than those that claim one. Quebec has over 80% of its population that self identify as religious. Its like the cross in the National Assembly.  Being Catholic is still a large part of Quebec's dominant culture. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Canada

 

pietro_bcc

Quebec may not be the most secular province, but it is the province that is most obsessed with the debate around state secularism and that definitely has had an effect on Singh's electoral prospects in the province. If an individual believes that Singh should be banned from being a police officer or teacher, do you really believe that the individual would believe that he should be the Prime Minister?

That being said such bigotry should not be grounds for removing Singh as leader, because such people are wrong.

WWWTT

Not so sure about that pietro? If I understand you right?

voting for a candidate because they do not practice any religion is a legitimate reason. So really in a way, to be fare, voting for someone/voting against someone because of religion would also be legitimate. 

Now I’m no big fan of democracy because there’s way too many prywith it.  Trivial issues like these don’t help 

lagatta4

I confess that I don't think leaders of parties, and potential PMs at the least, should be wearing conspicuous religious symbols, and yes, that certainly includes Christian crosses and crucifixes. If one doesn't hire a person for a job unrelated to public policy because he wears a turban or she wears a hijab, yes, that is bigotry, idem refusing to rent to a person or family due to their faith - or their lack of faith. These are really matters that should be discussed, and not assume that everyone who thinks politics should be secular is bigoted.

Yes, there is still some degree of identification with Catholicism among many francophone Québécois who never set foot in a church and have lived with partner and had children without benefit of holy matrimony, or secular matrimony for that matter. But there is a lot of resentment against the Church hierarchy. This is actually one of the reasons for the malaise surrounding hijabs.

An important remedy for that is participation in community associations etc where there are people from different ethnic, cultural and religious backgrounds. We worked hard on getting our tenants' association more welcoming to new immigrant groups, and it paid off. Not only building solidarity, but no longer viewing people as shadowy "others".

Pondering

Pondering wrote:
 To go door-knocking I would have to be inspired. The NDP does not inspire me at the moment. 

 

Ken Burch wrote:
Do you have any awareness of the irony in you being the one who says that, given that it's you who have spent the whole time arguing that the NDP must never say anything inspirational, because anything visionary would drive away the "low-information voters"?  

No, what I want is for the NDP to focus virtually exclusively on income inequality and the middle-class being taxed instead of corporations. That would inspire me. 

As long as the NDP is busy collecting sub-groups while simultaneously trying to hug the centre they will lose federally. 

In 2015 Trudeau ignored the questions he didn't like and spouted his talking points. The NDP should answer every question with a comment on the transfer of wealth to the top. 

The only way to save the planet and protect the people on it, regardless of nationality, sex, or race, is to defeat international corporations. Nibbling around the edges won't do it. 

Defeat the corporations, everything else becomes possible, a new age of enlightenment. 

The NDP's new "catch phrase" should be "Follow the Money". 

Ask questions. How is it in the past we could afford public infrastructure but now we can't? Why are we still using P3 agreements when they have proven to be so costly and vulnerable to corruption? Pharmacare is factually cheaper just like Medicare is cheaper. Why don't we have it? When companies are guilty of crimes why can't we turn them into crown corporations or co-ops? When companies go bankrupt or factories are closed why not give employees a chance to continue running it? 

Why are we still allowing printer companies to make disposible ink cartridges and rig printers to resist refills? That is due to corporate control. 

What does it mean to earn money? Is anyone worth 6 million a year? Is the value of something "what the market will bear" or the cost of production? What proportion of profit do the workers who actually produce the value deserve? 

Talk about the birth of unions and how even a floor sweeper was entitled to a decent living wage on which they could support a family. In the mid-seventies a floor sweeper at Purina made 16$ an hour. There is no reason fast food workers and store clerks can't be making 20$ an hour or more now. There is no reason we can't have 6 weeks off as they do in many European countries. 

Transformation requires power and money. We have to take it away from the people who have it but who to give it to? If there is a second issue to focus on it would be the potential for much more government financial information to be made available. That would make corruption more difficult. The ability to recall politicians. The ability to generate referendums. Strenthening democracy. 

Pondering

I voted. And in the past week. I got 3 robocalls from the People's Party. I didn't listen so I don't know what they said.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

I voted. And in the past week. I got 3 robocalls from the People's Party. I didn't listen so I don't know what they said.

Probably something like "ASSIMILATE!...ASSIMILATE!...DALEK SUPREMACY RESTORED!!!"

Mighty Middle

The CBC News Decision Desk is projecting that Liberal candidate Rachel Bendayan will be the winner tonight in the riding of Outremont

WWWTT

Feel sorry for Julia and the other potential Quebec NDP candidates for the next election in October. 

Pondering

Julia didn't win but she did well. 

nicky

I don't see how anyone can say they did well in Outremont. the Libs got 42% of a 21% turnout or about 9%. The NDP about 5%.

This in a riding that is among the most affluent and best educated in Quebec.

 

lagatta4

To some extent there was an eco\progressive vote split between the NDP and the Greens  here.

It was a particularly miserable and hazardous day to go out, too. I took the bus back home from Julia's campaign office, about a 15-minute walk at most. It was icy everywhere with winds so strong that they pushed me along frighteningly.

josh

Looked like turnout was low.

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