Polling Thread
December 26, 2011 - 6:36am
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-poll-shows-support-f...
C - 35.6% / 36.5 / Up 0.9%
N - 27.3% / 28.7% / Up 1.4%
L - 28.1% / 25.6% / Down 2.5%
oops!
(I don't understand why I got the Nanos/Globe/CTV poll by email three days after Ken posted it here!)
There is a new Angus Reid poll out - first since August. Pretty consistent with others we have seen: CPC 39%, NDP 28%, Libs 22%...almost all of the NDP 2% loss since the federal election can be explained by a drop in Quebec from 43% to 33%...but even at 33% the NDP still has a double digit lead over the BQ and the only party that seems to have gained any ground at the expense of the NDP in QC is the Green party led by that unilingual anglophone Elizabeth May!!
Nycole Trumel's numbers are actually not bad at all and she has a better net favourability than Bob Rae has - so put that in your pipe and smoke it!
http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2012.01.24_Politics...
Does anyone here trust Eric Grenier of 308.com's analysis?
Here's the latest Ekos poll:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/beyond_the_horserace_jan_14_2012.pdf
First, here's the horserace numbers for all the respondents:
Con 31.4
NDP 29.4
Lib 24.8
Now, here's the result from only those who voted in the last election (Ekos says it was around 60% of the sample)
Con 36.7
NDP 27.8
Lib 21.9
It looks like the slippage has stopped in Quebec. I wonder if all the "media pundits" are going to be commenting on that?
ETA: Nope, just read the article from the Globe. It seems to me that the last numbers had the NDP around where it was. At worst, even if there is some slippage, it has certainly slowed down. I guess their is nothing that can be done about the MSM spin; they love their story. The other thing is all of this "slippage" is in the noise factor of the poll as well. Spin boys, spin!
I love how the Globe has screaming headline about a Liberal "surge" because they went from a catastrophic 19% to an only slightly less catastrophic 22%. When they fall back to 21% will the Globe say they are in "free-fall"???
Stockholm:
The short answer? No.
And even that is explained by the bounce the Bloc Quebecois got from its recent leadership race.
not so fast, the BQ is at just 23% in QC - exactly what they got when they were annhilated in the may election - the only party that seems to have gained in QC from the NDP's slight erosion is the Green party. Must be the superb quality of Elizabeth may's French (not!)
and now Harris-Decima has a new poll that also is accompanied by some absurd spin.
They have the Tories at 32%, NDP at 29% and Liberals at 25%...to me that story here is that Tory support has tumbled EIGHT points since the election, NDP support is almost unchanged and the Liberals are up somewhat...if there is any movement here it is Tory to Liberal, and yet the news story tries to imply that this is somehow bad news for the NDP. If we had an election and that was the popular vote - chances are the next leader of the NDP would be PM of Canada heading a minority government!
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/turmel-sees-no-reas...
and now Harris-Decima has a new poll that also is accompanied by some absurd spin.
They have the Tories at 32%, NDP at 29% and Liberals at 25%...to me that story here is that Tory support has tumbled EIGHT points since the election, NDP support is almost unchanged and the Liberals are up somewhat...if there is any movement here it is Tory to Liberal, and yet the news story tries to imply that this is somehow bad news for the NDP. If we had an election and that was the popular vote - chances are the next leader of the NDP would be PM of Canada heading a minority government!
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/turmel-sees-no-reas...
Those numbers are almost identical to the first Ekos number. There's no "likely voter" screening.
More poll details from HD:
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/turmel-sees-no-reas...
seems they have the NDP at 32% in Quebec - 10% ahead of the second place BQ and this represents a recovery from the December HD poll which had the NDP at 26% in Quebec
So if the NDP are essentially unchanged nationally since the election, and yet down that much in Quebec (though still leading), the party must have improved commensurately elsewhere - right?
So if the NDP are essentially unchanged nationally since the election, and yet down that much in Quebec (though still leading), the party must have improved commensurately elsewhere - right?
A 10% drop in Quebec would translate to 2-3% drop nationally, which is what these polls have. Most of the recent polls have shown a rise in BC
I was thinking the same thing...at 29% the NDP is down about 2% nationally. an 11 point drop in Quebec equals about a 3% drop nationally and the article says the NDP is at 26% in Ontario which is unchanged from the election - so there must be an uptick elsewhere.
These polls are lies. NDP are going to sweep Quebec next election
The polls don't have to be lies...even if the NDP dropped 10% to 33% in Quebec - as long as it still has a double digit lead over the other parties - we would still be looking at over 50 seats in QC. I'll take it! Keep in mind that its still an open question if the BQ will even exist anymore by 2015 and if it doesn't a whole other 23% of the vote is up for grabs and more likely to go NDP than anywhere else.
I am encouraged by these results. Considering how much help the msm has been giving rae and the libs it hasn't changed the fact the NDP is still preferred over the Libs. And as for Quebec, I believe our numbers will either solidify at this point or go slightly higher. Give us some breakthrough in Ontario, and the sky is the limit. This is very encouraging.
The polls don't have to be lies...even if the NDP dropped 10% to 33% in Quebec - as long as it still has a double digit lead over the other parties - we would still be looking at over 50 seats in QC. I'll take it! Keep in mind that its still an open question if the BQ will even exist anymore by 2015 and if it doesn't a whole other 23% of the vote is up for grabs and more likely to go NDP than anywhere else.
Polls are not snapshots of public sentiment, they are tools used to manipulate public sentiment
Why does Stockholm state 39% for conservatives is consistent with other polls when we read further down that they are getting numbers like 31% and 32%? No many polls published in the newspapers. Where are people getting these results? I so want to believe the 31%.
Here are the detailed tables from the HD survey...BC looks good!
http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2012/01/25/hd-20...
When they fall back to 21% will the Globe say they are in "free-fall"???
Nah. The Globe will say the Liberal vote is "holding steady".
The polls don't have to be lies...even if the NDP dropped 10% to 33% in Quebec - as long as it still has a double digit lead over the other parties - we would still be looking at over 50 seats in QC. I'll take it! Keep in mind that its still an open question if the BQ will even exist anymore by 2015 and if it doesn't a whole other 23% of the vote is up for grabs and more likely to go NDP than anywhere else.
If the BQ doesn't exist by 2015 and their 23% is up for grabs I would expect to see the emergence of a new Quebec-based party. Especially with 4 years notice of the potential opportunity.
Here are the detailed tables from the HD survey...BC looks good!
http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2012/01/25/hd-20...
If correct, this poll would be great. This poll implies a significant decrease in Conservative support. According to this poll, the Conservatives only lead in Alberta where they have a huge 61% that would give them a lot of meaningless votes. The NDP leads in Quebec and BC. The NDP and Conservatives are tied in MB/SK. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with the NDP a strong third. And the Conservatives and Liberals are tied in Ontario with the NDP a strong third there too.
These numbers would give the NDP the most seats overall and with the Liberals also making gains at the Conservatives' expense, an NDP minority government would be very likely.
A Liberal upswing at the Conservatives expense should be welcomed as it could easily lead to an NDP government. Here in BC the upsurge of BC Conservative support at the expense of the BC Liberals currently has the BC NDP cruising in the drivers seat toward government eventhough overall support for the BC NDP has not grown and even seems to be lower then it was in the last two elections that produced BC Liberal phony FPTP majorities.
Counterintuitively, the Harris Decima poll's numbers would be great as the NDP would be better off at 29% to the Conservatives 32% then they were with 31% to the Conservatives 40%.
It appears that Liberals are winning back "blue Liberals" that went Tory in May, but are not cutting into NDP support.
I wouldn't read too much in SK/MB and Atlantic numbers though.
And now Abacus weighs in with CPC - 37%, NDP - 28% and Libs 21%...and the NDP is at 37% in QC and wayyy ahead of anyone else!
http://abacusdata.ca/2012/01/25/national-political-report-january-2012/
So, from what I have seen of these polls including the last one, I think that given the "noise" in polls, that I am not really sure things have changed all that much. Yet Abacus writes:
"With a lack of a permanent leader, the appearance of a reenergized Liberal Party, and what appears to be a dull leadership race, the NDP support's historic level of support is starting to leak to other opposition parties".
First of all, I am not sure how dull the leadership race has been. It seems to me this is simply the opinion of outsiders to this process. And, given how the NDP seems to be holding around the mid 30s in Quebec or better, I simply can't understand how these results can be seen this way.
Anyone want to hazard why this kind of spin? Why for example isn't the story, given that it is almost 9 months later, and the Libs are firmly in third despite all of the attention to Rae and Lib machinations, that the Libs aren't doing better? Why isn't this the story? I mean after all, the Libs are one of supposedly two of Canada's natural governing parties, aren't they?
I'm not sure it's a matter of "winning back," or mere vote parking. Remember that these were the numbers the Liberals and Conservatives held until Harper's plea to blue Liberals to stop the socialist hordes, so we should not take for granted that these Liberals will stay Liberal.
Polls - Wikipedia
Election
CON: 39.6
NDP: 30.6
LIB: 18.9
BQ: 6.0
GRN: 3.9
Harris Decima - Jan 22
CON: 32
NDP: 29
LIB: 25
GRN: 7
BQ: 5
Angus Reid - Jan 21
CON: 39
NDP: 28
LIB: 22
BQ: 6
GRN: 5
EKOS - July 21
CON: 31.4
NDP: 29.5
LIB: 24.8
BQ: 6.7
GRN: 6.1
EKOS - July 21
CON: 36.7
NDP: 27.8
LIB: 21.9
BQ: 6.6
GRN: 5.5
Abacus - Jan 19
CON: 37
NDP: 28
LIB: 21
GRN:7
BQ: 6
Forum - Jan 19
CON: 35
NDP: 28
LIB: 25
BQ: 6
GRN: 4
Nanos - Dec 18
CON: 36.5
NDP: 28.7
LIB: 25.6
BQ: 4.4
GRN: 3.8
Then the NDP really needs to pull away Liberal votes from the left.
Abacus Data
Sure, post all the trend things you like, the fact is its 9 months later, and the NDP is still in second, and the downward trend for the party is bottoming out, and starting to look better in Quebec as well. When there is a new leader, things will continue to improve. So post all the little pretty pictures you like. I'm glad it makes you feel better.
Given that Rae is a darling with the media, and Turmel is not Jack or Thomas... or any of the star speakers; the fact that the party is stable, constantly in a close (depending on the pollster) second and leading in provinces shows that Turmel has done her job of keeping the party relevant and united and floating till the leadership race is over.
Again, since we are leaderless i think those soft left liberals are staying parked with them, for now.
Can't forget these are snap shots in a 4 year period... i'm not worries just miffed at the MSM for kicking the NDP or trying to stir up discontent.
Great comment lil.Tommy!
Funny how the slightest NDP uptick induces paroxysms of ecstasy, while a prolonged downward trend generates endless rationalizations and predictions of future glory despite the obvious.
Why do the Pollyannas even bother following the polls?
Because if we didn't you wouldn't have anyone to play with.
If you are referring to me, my view on this is these polls are all within "the noise". So, I don't know how seriously they should be taken either way. Now if there was really noticeable movement outside that criterion, then from my perspective, it would be time to start wondering what's up. Right now, things look pretty good. I wish the NDP would start polling in the mid to upper 30s, but they aren't and that causes my concern. But given the MSM's love affari with Rae, the leadership contest, and Trumel's yeoman work in the face of an indifferent and hostile MSM, I generally feel pretty good. Its 9 months later and the NDP's support is holding pretty solid.
Call that pollyannaish if you want. I don't see it that way, and I don't agree with your post above.
Harris Decima's most recet poll is showing the NDP within 3% of the Cons - not too shabby for a party with an interin leader
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
Apart from having a dead link, your forecast is dead in the water as well, and the Liberals will be fortunate to win 20 seats in the next election.
The party's over for the LPC.
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
.... the Liberals will be fortunate to win 20 seats in the next election.
How many seats will the NDP, Conservatives, BQ, and Greens win in the next election?
While I don't agree with NR that thing would go that extremely badly for the Libs, I don't think that what happened in this election was necessarily a fluke.
I mean, I have read it argued on this blog that what happens in 2015 depends on the campaigns run by each party, and I have read it argued as well that it doesn't matter what particularly the NDP does that the NDP will return to historic levels of support and seats. It shows me that there is a range of opinion on this issue that in the end depends on how accurately and perceptively commentators interpret what occurred.
For me, I stand by what I have said from early on. How things play out next election will ultimately depend on how the NDP plays things. It really doesn't in any way matter who the Libs pick as leader or what they do or don't do. This is the NDP's election and future to decide, and that ultimately will determine how things transpire going forward. Really, the Libs are irrelevant to this process. If the NDP plays it right the Libs will stay a 3rd party, at least in the short term. If the NDP blows it, the Libs will probably come back.
How things eventually turn out has nothing to do with the Libs. They won't have any say in the outcome. This is the NDP's to screw up only.
This IS good news, but the drop in QC still is worrying.
BC is seeing a halo effect from the strong position the BC NDP is in. Next election the federal NDP may be swimming against the tide of a BC NDP government (BC tends to vote opposite ways provincially and federally).
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
No it isn't...you claim to be a progressive, yet you want Canada to lower itself again to the non-election elections where the only option was Tory vs. Liberal....the elections(like a Harper vs. Bob Rae contest would be)in which there were no meaningful differences between the government and the opposition. Why would you want the dreariness of 1990's politics to come back?
BC is seeing a halo effect from the strong position the BC NDP is in.
Well, the latest Abacus poll above shows BC's numbers as:
Con - 47%
NDP - 21%
Lib - 18%
I've said it once and I'll say it again... the BC sample size in all of these polls is typically ~130 or so... and any sample size under 300 is basically useless.
How things eventually turn out has nothing to do with the Libs. They won't have any say in the outcome. This is the NDP's to screw up only.
Won't the Conservatives also play a major role in determining how things eventually turn out?
Considering we are ruled by a Conservative majority government, isn't it important to factor in the Conservatives vis a vis the NDP?
I wasn't really talking about the Cons in the sense of outcome. The issue was about Libs JKR. I'd agree that the Cons play into this also. I was talking about whether the NDP and Libs will switch places.
I think it is obvious that the NDP needs to figure out why their message doesn't resonant north of Kenora. That and Ontario are where there needs to be work. It'll take time, but there is time if we start that now.
That was a good and fair question.
Remember that in the months preceding the 2005-2006 election, the Conservatives could never hold the lead in public opinion polling for more than one poll, but they were building the foundation which would help them win anyways.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/01/25/ndp-plummets-in-quebec-up-three-point...
These polls are all over the place. I don't think anyone really knows what is going on.
The one thing I notice is there sure seems to be a lot of polling going on. I don't ever recall seeing this much. Then, if you go over to HuffPost and see its headlines, I just feel that all this is simply is more of the usual MSM spin. The fact is the NDP is still in second, it is holding its support around where it was federally when you account for poll noise, and doing well in Quebec also.
These dam things aren't worth a dam if all we are going to hear is that the Libs and the Tories are fighting it again to feed the tired old Lib vs Tory narrative. I think that Ken Burch really nailed it on the head when he asked why would anyone want Libs vs Tories over and over. I think the answer is in part, the MSM is coporate and manipulating this simply to try and hammer the NDP because simply they are afraid and can't understand after 9 months why the NDP hasn't gone away. I mean after all, if the NDP May results were really a fluke, why is it 9 months later, the NDP is still the nation's obvious second choice? That scares the hell out of them.
And really pcml, what are you about. I am going to ask it, seriously, really you ever really a New Democrat? And if you were and aren't one now, why not?
Is this really the thread to be discussing that?
well, pcml has kind of forced that discussion, given his passive-aggressive cheerleading for the right-wing third party in this thread.
These polls are all over the place. I don't think anyone really knows what is going on.
I'm not sure polls between elections matter that much anymore as most people seem not to be tuned into politics between elections. Barring a major political event like the two-faced introduction of the HST here in BC, very little seems to move public opinion significantly between elections. [Maybe the Conservatives are about to change that by shooting themselves in the foot over unwanted Old Age Security cuts?]
We live in an era with 1000 tv channels and the internet where most people pay scant attention to politics between elections. The days of more then half of the nation getting their daily news fix from Knowlton Nash and Harvey Kirck are long gone. Party loyalty has also been drastically reduced over time. So elections now are usually decided mostly by which leader performs the best over a 5 week campaign that is centred around a couple of vital tv debates.
Here's an article from the G & M that indicates how tuned in people are into party politics:
Canadians still unfamiliar with NDP leadership contenders, poll shows
...40 per cent of Canadians haven’t heard of any of the eight candidates in the leadership race, according to a new online poll.
Even worse, 35 per cent of New Democrats could not recognize the candidates running to replace the late Jack Layton.
!
Funny, my reaction to that poll was the opposite of the spin in the article. i thought - WOW! 60% of canadians and 65% of NDP voters actually DO know some of the people running for NDP leader. That's more tha n the number of people who can name our head of state!
And considering that almost half of the population doesn't vote in federal elections, the article's contention that the NDP Leadership race is uncharacteristically plagued by apathy is just anti-NDP spin.
But growing apathy seems to be a real trend. Didn't the major federal parties used to hold their conventions in large capacity arenas like Maple Leaf Gardens and the Montreal Forum?
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
No, it's not rocket science, why leads me to wonder why you're posting here with assumptions that Canadian politics (the NDP leadership race in general) aren't "exciting" enough for you. Stick to solid arguments that augment the discussion in this thread.
And, Arthur Cramer, your remarks are becoming personal. Stick to the substance of the discussion and stop attacking the individual.
There will be just one poll that counts for anything, and it won't happen until 2015 whenever Harper makes another snap election call for short-term political gain.
Our capitalist press has freaked out over having the NDP as the Official Opposition but they ain't seen nothing yet. LOL
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-goes-through-winter-of-...
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
I think I just figured this out. pcml is talking up the Liberals because he doesn't see the NDP as pro-legalization enough for his taste. Question though...if they didn't legalize during their last turn in power, even when holding a safe majority for eleven years, why would he think they'd do it now? Nothing's changed that much in the party. They never cared about civil liberties in the past...they never stood up to hardline "drug war" types in the past...doesn't that record pretty much tell the tale?
I think I just figured this out. pcml is talking up the Liberals because he doesn't see the NDP as pro-legalization enough for his taste. Question though...if they didn't legalize during their last turn in power, even when holding a safe majority for eleven years, why would he think they'd do it now?
Because he didn't get along with people in the NDP or the Greens.
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20120128/nanos-poll-liberals-tories-glo...
NR:
Regarding that poll, I simply say more Nik Nanos mischief. His last poll was an oultier, and i am guessing this is simply more of the same. I don't believe the Libs are any where near up that much in Quebec. Its simply nonsense.
Today on CTV national news with Rinaldo, all of a sudden he is saying, the NDP is really hurting given their leadership race. THey should be doing better. Given how the MSM has been spinning for the Libs, it simply strains credibility. All of a sudden it matters the NDP is holding a leadership race. All we have been seeing is peole supposedly don't know their is a race.
This is simply spin. I think Nanos is full of it. What a spinmeister. I don't believe it. And, there is no way the NDP is running second.
Nope, just more garabge outlier polling from the Nanos propaganda organiazation.
ETA: His nosie is plus or minus 2.8. He had the opposite numbers on Monday. There could actually be no change. On top of that, I simply don't believe his numbers in Quebec. All of a sudden in 6 days, his numbers move that much. The question to ask should be how did he get it so wrong on Monday, and why should anyone think his numbers are accurate now. What I hate most is how CTV is going to spin this.
I say it again, I don't ever recall seeing this much polling. Obviously the powers-that-be can't stand the thought the NDP might actaully be on the verge of power. Keep carrying that water Nik.
Conservative (35.7%) - 0.8
Liberal (27.6%) +2.0
NDP (25.2%) -3.5
BQ (5.6%) +1.2
Green (4.5%) +0.7
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2012-01-BallotE.pdf
Debater, this is old news. Why don't you change your handle to Gloater?
You are getting tiresome.
Léger Marketing poll in Quebec:
NDP: 28%
Bloc: 27%
Lib.: 22%
Cons.: 15%
Montreal:
NDP: 30%
Bloc: 28%
Lib: 26%
Quebec region:
Cons.: 31%
NDP: 24%
Lib.: 21%
Rest of Quebec:
Bloc: 29%
NDP: 26%
Cons.: 20%
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
No, it's not rocket science, why leads me to wonder why you're posting here with assumptions that Canadian politics (the NDP leadership race in general) aren't "exciting" enough for you. Stick to solid arguments that augment the discussion in this thread.
And, Arthur Cramer, your remarks are becoming personal. Stick to the substance of the discussion and stop attacking the individual.
I am not making assumptions and they are boring to me
I get the point though...I strayed did I?
stay on topic or cheerlead for the ndp or be banned right ?
got it
And really pcml, what are you about. I am going to ask it, seriously, really you ever really a New Democrat? And if you were and aren't one now, why not?
Hey Arty how are you?
Well with out boring others here
Or being banned for falling out of the "group think" I was just warned about I would ask if 30 years in counts?
Or being on the local provincial and federal executives count?
Or running for 3 nominations?
Or being called the hardest worker on the campaign of who beat me count?
Or how about running for a position in the executive in Quebec City in 2006?
But no as some have suggested I will not vote ndp until they find guts again
And yes it is the cannabis issue that will have me do what ever it is I do within the liberals instead of the ol ndp
And yes others were right about me doing it all in the greens as well
It seems my reputation precedes me
Us anonymous nobodies scare some it seems
But you wow I must say you sure sound not jaded etc about the ndp and a real booster
I lost that with the first few serious lies from jack layton
Keep it up ...every party needs cheerleaders
ps can anyone maybe suggest a new name or two as I expect all those usual suspects to again maybe shoot the messager so they can deny and ignore the message....anyone??
My predictions will come to pass I think and I will take any bets but then I pay attention and walk the talk not just chat at rabble and ignore the real world
Cheers
Debater, this is old news. Why don't you change your handle to Gloater?
You are getting tiresome.
Why don't you listen to the moderators, and stop making personal attacks?
Well if you think the Sherbroke declaration will not come back and bite the party I guess whats a poll or two?
http://m.ctv.ca/politics/20120124/ndp-parliament-strategy-poor-polls-120124.html
I dont share the optimism and think in the next round of polls the liberals will over take the ndp actually
Their convention I would think
And
The ndp leadership race is not seen as a race and generating about as much interest as belly button lint
And the only head line I see is how none of them thinks people going to jail or fined for cannabis is a bad thing so I assume the liberals will yes over take the ndp
Its not rocket science
I think I just figured this out. pcml is talking up the Liberals because he doesn't see the NDP as pro-legalization enough for his taste. Question though...if they didn't legalize during their last turn in power, even when holding a safe majority for eleven years, why would he think they'd do it now? Nothing's changed that much in the party. They never cared about civil liberties in the past...they never stood up to hardline "drug war" types in the past...doesn't that record pretty much tell the tale?
Yes what you say is true and had the ndp not shown they were as bad with lies I would not be giving the liberals another chance
I gave all ndp leadership candidates first crack at it
they all turned coward
But if any saw the Hill Times article you will know what that said as well
I have done this in three party's now
Maybe with the liberals now out of the closet the cowards in the ndp can drop the hypocritcal BS
I'll go out with this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PANEcjhSfv4&feature=related
Debater, this is old news. Why don't you change your handle to Gloater?
You are getting tiresome.
Why don't you listen to the moderators, and stop making personal attacks?
Oh come on
He is such a good booster he can get away with it .....whom do you kid?
I remember the day ..I will tell you ...yes when I went from comrade ....to pariah
I fell out of "group think" and changed colors and some thought lies were not enough reason and thought I should just make payments for three years for my efforts as jack ...well jack ...just couldnt risk it...LOL....
I know what that means now
Cant risk helping even though he said he would..guess what..?? now neither can I
That can change with a real leader or as I now think it will probably have to go and a new party...the liberal democrates
Stay tuned
Same time ...same channel...posible ...hahha new name
I don't kid no one, hahaha.
New poll, bad news, traliing Libs in Quebec, and now third in province, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/02/10/ndp-quebec-poll-leadership-liberals_n_1268010.html?ref=canada
Go ahead, tell me I shouldn't be mad at the leadership.
And while I am it, what is with this Justin Trudeau love affair? Frankly, it makes me sick!
It is amazing to me how many New Democrats are prepared to ignore the polls completely when considering their leadership choice. Quebec could desert the party as quickkly as it embraced it and we will be back in 3rd (or 4th) place.
I have seen the nationwide numbers from the Forum poll reported as CPC-36, NDP - 28 and Libs 26 - which is essentially identical to one month...if support is down in Quebec but the national number is still 28% it suggests that NDP numbers in the rest of Canada are very strong!
I don't think ANYONE is suggesting ignoring the polls about Quebec in making a leadership choice. But polls can also drive people to make short-sighted mistakes. According to "the polls" back in 2006 and again in 2009 - all the Liberals had to do to sweep Quebec was to make Michael Ignatieff their leader! - how well did that work for them? For years "the polls" said that there was a virtual personality cult for Paul Martin in Quebec...how well did that work out for them?? I am old enough to remember polls that said that initially said that John Turner would sweep Quebec in 1984.
I think that its probably true that if Mulcair becomes leader - NDP numbers would go way up in Quebec - at least in the short term. Its an open question whether or not he would prove to be as popular in Quebec in 2015...maybe yes, maybe no.
So tell us Stockholm, who do you think would be best to consolodate Quebec for the party?
And perhaps you can base your assessmnet on something tangible. Not simply that "polls go up and down" and "who knows what may happen in 4 years" and "Tiurner was high in the polls too."
Unlike any of the other candidates in my view, Mulcair can actually point to tangible reasons whay he would do well in Quebec. I will be happy to list them but I think they are familiar (and virtually undisputed) for anyone who has paid attention. So let's hear why you think other candidates would do well in Quebec.
I am not taking anything away from Mulcair. I think he would make a fine leader - but there are other people who could also do well once they have been introduced to the people of Quebec. Right now its not a fair comparision because we are looking at someone who is a household name in Quebec, compared to people who are total unknowns...whoever wins the leadership is going to have 3.5 years of saturation coverage as leader of the opposition and will become known across the country.
I agree with Chantal Hebert that fluency in the French language is necessary but not sufficient to connect with voters in Quebec.
PS: According to this poll, the Liberals would make big gains across the country and do very well in Quebec under Justin Trudeau...yet i have yet to meet anyone know is the least bit "in the know" who doesn't agree that Justin Trudeau is a total lightweight, disaster waiting to happen who would be fatal to the Liberal party...yet according to this poll - the Liberals should start a "draft Justin" campaign!
Stock, that is a very valid point you make just above. What about Trudeua, what is the story with that guy? Is it just because he's attractive, and his dad's kid?
Its is fair to say that if Justin's last name was "Sinclair" (his mothers maiden name) instead of "Trudeau" - he would be lucky to be elected as a school trustee in North Vancouver.
Arthur Cramer wrote:
New poll, bad news, traliing Libs in Quebec, and now third in province, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/02/10/ndp-quebec-poll-leadership-liberals_n_1268010.html?ref=canada
Go ahead, tell me I shouldn't be mad at the leadership.
And while I am it, what is with this Justin Trudeau love affair? Frankly, it makes me sick!
Oh c'mon Arthur, the little dude's cute as a button.
Were there an election next week I'd be very worried about this, but there isn't and I'm not. The election obviously co-incided with a peak in the polls for the NDP in Quebec. This is a good thing. It's what back room stratagist types try to pull off and they did. I think dropping in polls, and polls going all over the place is to be expected, and not to be worried about. We just spent so many years with minority governments, where polls are always significant, that I think we're over sensitized, and it also gives a lazy media something to talk about.
If the NDP want to peak in the polls in Quebec again 3+ years from now, we need to first, just do really good solid constituency work. Every MP has time now, to knock on every door, get known as the local person who listens, shows up at every poutine-fest, and gets things done. As far as the leader goes, I pretty much agree with Stockholm. There is an oppurtunity here for a leader to do really well, or really screw up. Mulcair offers a lot, but in my mind also has some big drawback in the long term. Either Nash or Topp IMHO could be successful.
The polls I'd be really interested in right now are only among NDP membership.
Stockholm says, "there are other people who could also do well once they have been introduced to the people of Quebec." That word "could" is hardly the tangible evidence I would need to conclude that Nash or Topp or Dewar will resonate in Quebec.
MUlcair has already proven that he does - winning 6 elections without a loss, having the support of the great majority of the Quebec MPs, polls showing him preferred over any other candidate by 62 to 8%, winning and holding Outremont, leading the breathrough in Quebec.
Quebec is absolutely integral to the NDP's chances of forming the government. If Quebec crumbles so does our credibiity in the rest of the country. We will eb back in 3rd place. I am not prepared to gamble away the single best chance the NDP has ever had to win a national election on a "could."
Huff Post headline, Orange Crash. Man I hate those guys. Its just become another Lib favoring propaganda arm. It isn't much better then the CBC. What a dissapointment they have proven to be.
They also keep bringing up Rathika's "9 million" population remark.
Stock, I can't find the poll. Does it show how the NDP is doing across Canada or just in Quebec?
-
Go to google and search "poll canada" and you will find it
Stock, I can't find the poll. Does it show how the NDP is doing across Canada or just in Quebec?
It is amazing to me how many New Democrats are prepared to ignore the polls completely when considering their leadership choice. Quebec could desert the party as quickkly as it embraced it and we will be back in 3rd (or 4th) place.
What's amazing is that you Mulcair bots seem to think you know everything, trash all the other candidates and that you put this man on such a ridiculous pedestal.
It is amazing to me how many New Democrats are prepared to ignore the polls completely when considering their leadership choice. Quebec could desert the party as quickkly as it embraced it and we will be back in 3rd (or 4th) place.
What's amazing is that you Mulcair bots seem to think you know everything, trash all the other candidates and that you put this man on such a ridiculous pedestal.
Lots of people attack Mulcair here. And unlike other campaigns, including Nash's, Mulcair doesn't have a "team" to answer them on here (or a team to put out attacks). So individual members that support Tom do. You have a problem with that?
And this coming from someone who flipped out when someone questioned and commented on a Nash proposal that they posted on here.
Why doesn't Mulcair have such a team? You'd think he'd find it fairly easy to put one together.
I know I am not part off any Mulcair "team". Everything I have posted is my own. No one has orchestrated, dictated or suggested anything to me.
Speaking of teams, however, I have heard that there is an organized effort ton Dewar's behalf to flood the social media at 4 pm Sunday afternoon with messages proclaiming how good his French was in the debate. Pathetic.
What language will the messages be in?
What language will the messages be in?
Hopefully Dothraki.
Why doesn't Mulcair have such a team? You'd think he'd find it fairly easy to put one together.
To spin and attack other candidates? I'm actually pleased they don't. Wouldn't mind though having an "official spokesperson" from the campaign to address certain questions and attacks. Not a secret one though :)
That all said... do we really believe a single discussion forum is so important?
I'm confused..to me the Mulcair supporters on babble seem more numerous and zealous than those of any other supporter.
I'm confused..to me the Mulcair supporters on babble seem more numerous and zealous than those of any other supporter.
nods
Well, his supporters in the NDP itself, at this point, seem to be more numerous than those of any other candidate. And, with Saganash now out, it's possible that they've stepped up the zeal due to the fact that Mulcair is now the only Quebec-based candidate in the race. Neither is automatically insidious.
Well, his supporters in the NDP itself, at this point, seem to be more numerous than those of any other candidate. And, with Saganash now out, it's possible that they've stepped up the zeal due to the fact that Mulcair is now the only Quebec-based candidate in the race. Neither is automatically insidious.
Agreed!
I'm not saying anything is insidious. I'm just questioning why Mulcair supporters are talking about campaigns stacking babble--when the only candidate that has vocal supporters here is Mulcair (now that Saganash is gone).
Many of the Mulcair supporters talk about conversations they've had with him personally while addressing people's issues. Additionally, some Mulcair supporters have followed up questions or points to the Mulcair campaign on behalf of babblers.
To me, this is campaigning. Don't get me wrong, it's good. It's how things are supposed to work. If I were expecially impressed and inspired by one of these candidates I would be doing the same thing. This is not a knock.
The point I'm making is that Mulcair supporters seem to be involved in a whisper campaign (that's what it's called, right?), saying they've heard that some campaigns are stacking social networks, including babble.
I thought about this for a bit, and I could see absolutely no sign that the Topp campaign, or the Nash campaign, or the Cullen campaign, or the Dewar campaign, or the Ashton campaign or the Singh campaign had any presence to speak of on babble. So whose campaign does that leave?
Again, I don't care that people are actively campaigning here for Mulcair. That's what a campaign is about, that's how it works. But it's weak as hell to be casting suspicions on other campaigns for it, especially when your candidate is the front runner.
LOL
So, why are we hearing vague aspersions about other campaigns sending people to babble when at this point, active, vocal, enthusiastic Mulcair supporters outnumber similar supporters for all other candidates combined?
Talk about your candidate. The other stuff, as I said, is weak as hell. Considering that Mulcair is perfection personified I'm at a loss to explain what seems like hypersensitivity in his supporters.
Saganash rose from #6 on my list to a definite top two, possibly #1. The arguments of his supporters here on babble were a significant factor in this climb.
Mulcair is currently #3 on my list, ahead of Nash, ahead of Dewar, ahead of Cullen. Based on how much support I think the various candidates have, I think my final ballot vote is quite likely to be for Mulcair. But this high ranking for Mulcair on my list is in spite of his support on babble, and certainly not because of it.
But this high ranking for Mulcair on my list is in spite of his support on babble, and certainly not because of it.
Mulcair is currently #3 on my list, ahead of Nash, ahead of Dewar, ahead of Cullen. Based on how much support I think the various candidates have, I think my final ballot vote is quite likely to be for Mulcair. But this high ranking for Mulcair on my list is in spite of his support on babble, and certainly not because of it.
This. So much.
I reiterate that I do not post anything on behalf of the Mulcair campaign. I have not been asked to do so. I am not authorized to do so. Nor to my knowledge is anyone else. Some people may be reluctant to accept that we have made indeppendent rational decisions to support Mulcair because we believe , with what we think is overwhelming evidence , that he is the best hope for the party's future.
Nor do I suggest that there is any organized campaign by other camps to infiltrate Babble. Dewar supporters seem to be non-existant here for example. There may be a few other partisans here and there. The persistent refrain that " I want to like Mulcair, BUT...." suggests that some people want to damn him with faint praise but I cannot say this is organized any more than I think the pro-Mulcair posts are organized.
If Mulcair has the most support on Babble it might just be because he has the best arguments in his favour.
I do think, however, that some camps are actively trying to spin their candidate's virtues (and undermine others) on other social media. I think Twitter gets a little mindless, although it is valuable for disseminating fast news. You can readily see there that there is disproportionate and often laughable spin on behalf of certain candidates. You can almost see the pom poms. A certain campaign manager is one of the worst offenders.
You can also see it in the online polls. One particular candidate 's vote literally doubled in the Skinny Dipper poll overnight recently. It is hard to believe that is not coordinated. Of course if his supporters are occupied with such endeavours they are not doing the real work this campaign demands.
Finally, a word of caution. Do not look to Twitter to assess how good anyone's French is today in the debate.
I actually agree with Wage Zombie - the backhanded whisper campaigns against other candidates has been a real turn off.
I'm not saying anything is insidious. I'm just questioning why Mulcair supporters are talking about campaigns stacking babble--when the only candidate that has vocal supporters here is Mulcair (now that Saganash is gone).
Many of the Mulcair supporters talk about conversations they've had with him personally while addressing people's issues. Additionally, some Mulcair supporters have followed up questions or points to the Mulcair campaign on behalf of babblers.
To me, this is campaigning. Don't get me wrong, it's good. It's how things are supposed to work. If I were expecially impressed and inspired by one of these candidates I would be doing the same thing. This is not a knock.
The point I'm making is that Mulcair supporters seem to be involved in a whisper campaign (that's what it's called, right?), saying they've heard that some campaigns are stacking social networks, including babble.
I thought about this for a bit, and I could see absolutely no sign that the Topp campaign, or the Nash campaign, or the Cullen campaign, or the Dewar campaign, or the Ashton campaign or the Singh campaign had any presence to speak of on babble. So whose campaign does that leave?
Again, I don't care that people are actively campaigning here for Mulcair. That's what a campaign is about, that's how it works. But it's weak as hell to be casting suspicions on other campaigns for it, especially when your candidate is the front runner.
I think by any measure the amount of misleading negative stuff propagated about Mulcair on Babble far exceeds the negative stuff about all other candidates combined:
Zionist, centrist, opportunist, Liberal, bad temper, Libby Davies, no policies,anti-prportional representation, etc etc.
It is even worse on Twitter.
So let's not get too self-righteous about someone suggesting someone is stacking some online poll.
Oh, for goodness sakes this is politics. Please let's stop all this constant silly whining.
You know, this is a polling thread. Why don't you take your bashing or whatever this is, to either a "I hate so and so as a leadership candidate thread", or a leadership thread, ok? Anyone have some useful comments on Quebec. I thought that observation about Mulcair being on the campaign trail was an interesting one. I personally don't believe the Libs are coming back in Quebec, and I also believe there has been an important change in how Quebec voters see the NDP. I don't think the last election was a fluke. Any thoughts folks?
Thanks.
I agree with your Arthur Cramer - I don't think it is a fluke.
Closing for length