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Now that the other thread started at the same time as this on polling is full and closed, we might as well use this one up, will get a mod to change the thread title to # 9.
So continued from here
Last polling numbers were from Nanos as follows:
Conservative 35.6% (-3.9)
Liberal 33.9% (+3.7)
NDP 16.4% (-2.3)
BQ 8.5% (+0.8)
Green 5.6% (+1.6)
From the previous polling thread:
If they wish to remain viable as a federal political party, the Liberals will have no choice but to turn to Justin to lead them after the next election.
Why would the Liberals need a new leader after the next election? Does this mean you are predicting that the Liberals will lose the next election?
When I was here last week, people were telling me that the Conservatives would lose the next election.
So you have come around and are now predicting a Conservative win?
Tell me you are not stating that NR speaks for everyone here at babble, and that we are all of one mind, are you?
Tell me you are not stating that NR speaks for everyone here at babble, and that we are all of one mind, are you?
No, but it seems as if some of you are predicting a new Liberal leader. The logical conclusion from such a prediction would be that you are not predicting success for the current Liberal leader.
In any event, the tie in the polls may not last much longer. In a couple days the Olympics will begin and Canadians will become interested in what their athletes are doing and will not worry any more about the liberal media's focus on prorogation. Christina Blizzard recently exposed the biased coverage of the prorogation issue. The CBC is a pro-liberal party network that wanted to create a controversy for political advantage.
Then when Parliament returns in March, Canadians will be focused on what matters to them - jobs and the economy, and poll numbers will rise again.
What matters to Canadians is what Canadians say matters to Canadians, and they say, pretty damned consistently, that they want parliament to actually be working. They said it during the coalition fiasco, they said it when Iggy threatened an election, and they're saying it now.
Oh and Christina Blizzard and the Toronto Sun aren't biased? Are you saying that they are neutral and objective, perhaps "fair and balanced" Don't piss in my ear and tell me it's raining.
And, if you want my prediction...
2011 - Harper wins another minority, Iggy stays
2013 - Haper wins another minority, Iggy goes
2015 - Trudeau sweeps to power with majority
No, but it seems as if some of you are predicting a new Liberal leader. The logical conclusion from such a prediction would be that you are not predicting success for the current Liberal leader.
No....actually only one person was and you decided to make it a sweeping generalization. Just as you did again in this post as a matter of fact.
Certainly you are not trying to tell Canadians what they want to think about are you?
West Coast Greeny, I disagree with your prediction. I see Justin as a lightweight and young people of this day read "no logo". Trudeau is just a brand!
And, if you want my prediction...
2011 - Harper wins another minority, Iggy stays
2013 - Haper wins another minority, Iggy goes
2015 - Trudeau sweeps to power with majority
Whatever happened to the idea that Harper would be gone if he failed to win a majority after four tries? By 2015 the social, econonomic, environmental, and hence political landscape will have shifted considerably if not completely with likely no party having the same leader and possibly new parties.
Odds are greatest that the government will be gone with the next failure to achieve a majority: like I said before, even if Harper's still gaining and only 2 seats short of a majority.
Historically, such a plurality in a 3 party field, much lessa 4 party field, would virtually guarantee a returning minority government.
But it will end this government not because its the 4th failure- rather it will be the inevitable blow back on government by bullying.
I do not take it as a given that Harper will be out if he does not win a majority because coalitions and arrangements are hard to predict.
That said I do not think that it is certain that the Cons will even win a minority plurality of seats in the next election. Possible but not more likely than the Liberals.
I suspect the Liberals are ging to gain in Quebec substantially (they have recorded several near misses and I beleive a lot of BQ voters are getting fed up with Harper and may even hold their noses and give the Liberals a chance to a have a party with more seats in the House than Harper. I also think the Liberals may gain in Ontario many of the seats they lost previously to the Cons and that they along with the NDP will also gain in both NB and BC directly off the Cons column. I don't think the NDP will lose much if anything and may in fact make some gains including sliding up the middle to retake a seat in Sask.
EKOS
Canada
Conservatives: 31.0 (-)
Liberals: 29.0 (-1.9)
NDP: 15.5 (+0.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 10.3 (+1.9)
Green: 11.3 (+0.4)
Other: 2.8 (+0.4)
Undecided: 13.1 (-1.4
British Columbia (MoE 5.27)
Conservatives: 30.3 (-0.1)
NDP: 26.9 (+3.9)
Liberals: 24.1 (-3.5)
Green: 15.0 (-1.4)
Other: 3.7 (+1.0)
Alberta (MoE 6.46)
Conservatives: 57.1 (+5.0)
Liberals: 21.9 (+3.6)
NDP: 8.6 (-1.8)
Green: 8.1 (-4.9)
Other: 4.1 (-2.1)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.35)
Conservatives: 45.5 (+5.6)
Liberals: 24.4 (+4.5)
NDP: 17.6 (-13.6)
Green: 10.3 (+2.4)
Other: 2.1 (+0.9)
Ontario (MoE 3.08)
Liberals: 36.2 (-4.4)
Conservatives: 31.0 (-1.4)
NDP: 16.7 (+2.7)
Green: 13.6 (+3.1)
Other: 2.4 (-)
Quebec (MoE 3.83)
Bloc Quebecois: 41.7 (+6.8)
Liberals: 23.1 (-3.9)
Conservatives: 16.0 (-1.8)
NDP: 8.3 (-1.5)
Green: 8.1 (+0.7)
Other: 2.7 (+1.0)
Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.68)
Liberals: 34.1 (-4.7)
Conservatives: 33.7 (+2.0)
NDP: 21.3 (+2.1)
Green: 9.1 (-0.5)
Other: 1.8 (-1.1)
The Ekos poll makes a point-- the last edition of this poll is the one that sparked a bit of a row with a person who was making such a big deal of the Sask - Manitoba numbers because they had increased-- I said pay no attention as they are not accurate. Here we see the number reversed. Either we conclude that the NDP has gone way up and then way down in those provinces or that the provincial numbers are a joke.
The major point is that if the problem is not a disagreement regarding a single aspect of methodology but one of quality then you can draw little from any individual poll. I have already made the point that there are numerous methodological differences but none of them explain variations between one edition and another where there is nothing going on out there to explain them. Low quality where the margin of error is much higher than advertised does explain all of these.
This may be a more important poll:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/02/11/bbc-poll-influence.html
Canadians care about what other people think of them and these findings if they are part of a longer term trend are going to affect people's confidence in the foreign policy of the country.
If you drill down, you recognize that this is from only last year when Canada may already have lost standing from previous years. Secondly the weakest point (given where the drops are) may be due to environmental policy.
Our broken immigration system may also be a factor (some of the biggest hits come from countries where applying to visit Canada has become more of a hassle and where immigration files have been facing longer waits).
What if all the polls except Nanos and CROP are bogus?
Tories do well in poll - but with protest, not so much
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/tories-do-well-in-poll-...
And 1 time out of 20 they will be bogus as well.
With polls it only means something if several agree and do so over time.
That Harper lost support over proregation seems to ahve been confirmed -- specific numbers are crap.
Environics
Libs - 37%
Cons - 33%
NDP - 13%
NR, those numbers came in a poll that was commissioned by the group advocating on behalf of income trust investors. The sample was not likely to be as NDP-friendly, just based on who would be interested in completing such a survey.
So only B.C. has NDP as 2nd favorite. We will send even more NDP MPs to the house next time as the Cons fall from grace and the Libs remain with Iffy as leader. Maybe it will happen across Canada like that, or do they need a new leader? Will they be forced by Jack's illness to find one? Can they find a superstar NDP leader that could sweep the nation [like many Libs are hoping for too, eh N.R.]?
NS
I think Layton will be around for another election or two, seeing as he has been relatively successful as the NDP Leader. I'm anticipating a breakthrough for the NDP in Quebec next election.
Leger
Quebec
Bloc - 38%
Libs - 27%
Cons - 16%
NPD - 12%
AngusReid Strategies (Vision Critical)
Cons - 34%
Libs - 30%
NDP - 18%
Bloc - 9%
The Tories remain the most popular party in Alberta (62%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (48%).
In British Columbia, the governing party is holding on to the top spot (36%), with the NDP (30%) maintaining its edge over the Liberals (26%).
In Ontario, a tight race continues. The Tories (37%) are barely ahead of the Grits (35%), followed by the NDP with 17 per cent and the Greens at 11 per cent.
In Quebec, the Bloc is first with 35 per cent (-7), followed by the Liberals with 28 per cent (+2), the NDP with 14 per cent (=), and the Conservatives also with 14 per cent (+3).
Harris Decima
Cons - 32%
Libs - 30%
NDP - 16%
Tories take early gold in polls
In keeping with the Olympic spirit, it's gold so far for Stephen Harper's Conservatives, according to two new national public opinion polls.
And in keeping with Canadians' generous spirit, NDP Leader Jack Layton has received a slight bump in public perception, an increase the latest Angus Reid survey attributes to news he is suffering from prostrate cancer.
Mr. Layton's approval numbers are at 29 per cent, up 2 per cent, since the firm's last poll in late January.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/tories-take-early-gold-...
It looks like the anger over prorogation has faded and that things are returning to normal.
We missed you Augustus.
Your're premature. Looked at the other way- if your fondest wishes come true, your party may get back to where they were before you decided to stir the pot.
Only 1 week left in the O Show, and many weeks left until prorogation is over....
Not to worry the train wreck that is the olympic is making canadians sick. Most of the people I work with are A pissed that it isn't televised(350,000 in our region no CTV) B upset at the cost of the olympics, and C watching what an embaressment this has been. How is the view of the torch things...sorry you can't get close to it like all the elites are aloud to do.
The latest Ekos is out:
http://ekos.ca/admin/articles/cbc-2010-02-18.pdf
CPC - 31%
Libs - 29%
NDP - 16.5% (up 1% from last week)
Where is the Olympic bounce for the Tories??? Even in BC where you'd think it would be happening, Tory support has been 30% for three straight weeks - that is a FIFTEEN point drop from the 45% they got in BC in the '08 election!!
If IR were to be believed Canadians can thank our lucky stars there will be no election this year.
Cons - 37%
Libs - 29%
NDP - 16%
Voters would elect another Tory minority: Poll
Harper's personal numbers, though, have suffered over the last three months. When survey respondents were asked if their impression of the prime minister had improved over the last three months, about one in 10 (12 per cent) said it had but four in 10 (38 per cent) said their impression of Harper had worsened.
"This is fairly typical for Harper," Bricker said. "Very rarely has he ever had a time of public positive momentum. He's a controversial leader and even though people respect him, they don't personally warm to him."
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, too, has had a rough few months, with about one in 10 (12 per cent) saying they had a better impression of the Liberal leader but about three in 10 (29 per cent) saying their impression had worsened.
NDP Leader Jack Layton, though, is viewed more favourably at the end of the prorogation period, with just one in 10 (12 per cent) feeling worse about him but two in 10 (18 per cent) feeling better about him.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Voters+would+elect+another+Tory+mino...
Polls galore today!
Let's go from bad to good:
Ipsos week old poll says: Tories 37%, Libs 29%, NDP 16%
Harris-Decima says: Tories and Libs tied at 31% each, NDP 16%
Angus Reid says: Tories 33%, Libs 29%, NDP 20% (!) - I'll take it!
I think we now know why the Liberals are jealously taking potshots at Jack Layton every nasty little chance they get.
Even Warren Kinsella knows it's not looking good for Iggy ... and that was *before* the Angus Reid numbers came out:
http://www.warrenkinsella.com/index.php?entry=entry100301-202713
Does anyone know what the seat projections would be for NDP with 20% in the polls. The NDP should get a minimum of 50 seats in the next election, and more are possible. Nice to see the NDP picking up steam with 22% support in Ontario.
Latest ARS poll:
Party/ Poll / 2008 Election
Cons - 33% / 38% / down 5%
Libs - 30% / 26% / up 4%
NDP - 20% / 18% / up 2%
VisionCritical (ARS)
NDP results
BC - 25%
AB - 9%
SK/MB - 15%
ON - 22%
QC - 16% (Up 4% from 2008 election - Not too shabby!)
AC - 27%
Total - 20%
Ontario is also up 4% from the last election. Its funny with the polls one will have the NDP doing really well in the west but badly in Ontario - then another one (like this one) will show us doing well in Ontario and not so well out west.
If you had the high water mark of recent polls reached in all regions at once the party would be around 22-3%.
The question is -- is the highwater mark realistic or polling inaccuracy? As I said in another thread a jump to the mid twenties may come with little warning. I don't think that this is incremental-- there are tipping points that large numbers of people have in common. Anyway, I've commented at length about this in another thread on waht it would take to get to 25% (or better).
Here is what I think is very possible in the next election. let's assume that the NDP loses no ground anywhere.
Say that the 26% in Atlantic from last time stays about the same.
There is more growth in Quebec and the 12% from 2008 grows to 15%.
There is an inch up in Ontario from 18% to 20% (perfectly possible given the number of times the NDP took 20-21% in Ontario all thorugh the 60s, 70s and 80s.
Then as a result of falling Tory support, we manage to gain a couple of points in Man/Sask from 25% last time to 27% - keep in mind that as recently as the 2000 election the NDP took close to 30% of the vote in Man/Sask.
maybe Alberta stays stuck at 13%
Then in BC if we even took the 26% from the 2008 election back up to the 29% that was won in 2006.
Add it all up and that is what could put the NDP nationally at about 20/21%
You know what region always gets overlooked in these discussions: the North.
The NDP has at one time or another in the last 30 years held every one of those three northern seats. Does anyone have any insights into what's going on in Yukon these days, or how popular Leona Agglukaq is at home?
You got to think that home town girl as fairly highly regarded Health Minister counts for a LOT in Nunavut... that it would take hard core sentiments against her or the government to trump that.
True, Ken, but Iqaluit is also a small town and not everyone supported her approach in the territorial government. I also suspect the way the community dinner at the G-8 Fiance Ministers meeting was handled would have wound up making people feel bad when none of the ministers attended, and I'm not sure how that would have reflected on the government. But I was just looking for any on-the-ground intel.
Interesting thing about Yukon--Audrey's old turf--is that the NDP was a poor *fourth* there last time (though I'd definitely be cautious about using that as a benchmark)
Tories hold lead over Liberals: EKOS
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/03/03/ekos-voter-intention-poll.html
Never heard about this, could you detail what happened, or give a link, please?
Maybe after a meeting with Layton - Harper screams "The creature has stolen the space modulator!!"
Maybe after a meeting with Layton - Harper screams "The creature has stolen the space modulator!!"
In the Ekos daily numbers the Conservatives had a 16% lead for March 2 so I guess that's their temporary Olympic bounce
Remind, I don't have easy access to links right now, but if you google Jim Flaherty Iqaluit Finance Ministers meeting and seal meat, you should find what you're looking for.
Never heard about this, could you detail what happened, or give a link, please?
Iqaluit handles summit without a hitch
"We're quite proud," said Elisapee Sheutiapik, the mayor of Iqaluit, who said the foreign visitors likely had an experience of a lifetime. Yet she expressed some disappointment that none of them came to the country dinner.
...
The Inuit followed through with their plan to showcase the importance of seal meat to their local culture. Their campaign was highly visible and not the least bit aggressive. Virtually everywhere the visitors went, there was seal skin. Outside the Nunavut legislature - which served as the main venue for the G7 meeting - an igloo was set up with a seal skin drying outside.
...
Several of the European visitors gladly took up Mr. Flaherty's call to go dog-sledding and some checked out the igloo, but the seal issue clearly made them uncomfortable.
Huh, how very rude of them, thank you scott.......
Yeah, but the pushy tactics of the Conservatives kind of set them up for that kind of disappointment. Of course the Europeans couldn't be seen by their own media to sell out the vitriolic anti-seal hunt folks back home. So, in getting the Inuit to do all that preparation for a dinner they knew or ought to have known would be politically impossible for the other finance ministers to attend, I think the government people were being a bit too clever by half, and setting up the Inuit for a disappointment. They never should have been put in that position.
ETA: BTW, thanks for hauling up that link, Scott.
never under estimate the Conservatives ability to amuse themselves at others expense.
I suppose Layton's leadership is so strong the Globe though it should discuss the leadership of the also-rans instead.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-rides-olympic-bounce...
maybe those who commissioned the poll did not even ask the question
Actually the full Harris Decima results are available:
http://www.harrisdecima.com/sites/default/files/releases/2010/03/09/hd-2...
Note that Layton has 48% approval (and just 36% disapproval). Compare that to Harper's 41% approval/49% disapproval and Iggy's 29% approval and 51% disapproval.
Layton is the only leader nationally with a net approval rating
Easy stock we have never let facts get in the way of a good old NDP ashing in the media before> I would hate for it to start happening now.
Always the optimist eh Sean!
I value honest truthful inquiry over propaganda even if it is the propaganda of my side.
And actually I am optimistic-- so much so that I don't have to stretch all credulity by celebrating every positive, yet insubstantial blip as if it were something meaningful even though any unbiased observer would recognize it as meaningless.
I find the interpretation of any positive blip in the polls to be more like seeing faces in the clouds than political analysis and just as useful.It would be easy to ignore if it did not involve several victory lap-style content-free posts. At times I find it easier to ignore these extreme posts as static but at other times I find that much static to be in the way of more considered opinion -- just as I find those who cite the coming of summer to be a sign of global warming to provide a disservice to a valid argument. I find the meaningless celebrations of non-events get in the way of recognition of real solid progress - and there has been some of that.
You are not remarking with the same emphasis on the NDP numbers in the other polls showing the 15-16% the party has often been in recently I guess just leaves room to declare the same type of victory the next time the NDP hits 20% in a single poll.
I do think it is a problem that many polling questions seek opinions on only the government and the official opposition when in fact the gap between the official opposition and other opposition parties does not justify the line being drawn there. The fact that the Liberals are said to be the only other party that could be expected to govern after the next election is in many respects a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Actually the full Harris Decima results are available:
http://www.harrisdecima.com/sites/default/files/releases/2010/03/09/hd-2...
Note that Layton has 48% approval (and just 36% disapproval). Compare that to Harper's 41% approval/49% disapproval and Iggy's 29% approval and 51% disapproval.
Layton is the only leader nationally with a net approval rating
Too bad that 48% approval doesn't translate into voting intention. The approval/disapproval numbers are largely meaningless. Voting intention and maybe best PM a smidgeon are all that really counts.
Sorry, not trying to be snippy there, just realistic.
Campaigns matter and I would rather go into an election campaign with leader with 48% approval than with one who has 29% approval. Vote intention is often a lagging indicator.
BTW: The Ipsos poll that came out last week also had Layton as a solid second on the best person for PM question.
So take that Eee-yore!
I like that analogy.
C.(on)B.C. was crowing about the cons leading this morning after the budget(so they didn't factor this weeks shenanigans good job ekos best spin you can manage)
Cons 32
Libs 30
NDP(well back as the reporter said) 16
2% is probab;y the margin of error but yeah they are leading, I think ekos had them with a larger lead in the last poll which then should have been reported as tory lead cut to just 2% but we can't have that. I am pretty pissed at how bad the CBC is a mouthpiece for the cons. Power and Politics this week has not been any better with Barton. Terrible.