Public Party Financing released
The quarterly allowances for the period from October 1, 2008, to December 31, 2008, were calculated based on the number of votes that parties received in the 39th general election held on January 23, 2006, multiplied by the inflation adjustment factor of 1.116 that is in effect for the period from April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2009.
-------------------------------------------------Political party Payment amount-------------------------------------------------Bloc Quebecois $758,350.39-------------------------------------------------Conservative Party of Canada $2,623,890.17-------------------------------------------------Green Party of Canada $324,231.20-------------------------------------------------Liberal Party of Canada $2,187,074.37-------------------------------------------------New Democratic Party $1,264,370.74
By contrast the Liberals raised $3.6 million in the first nine months of last year. The NDP raised $3.7 million and the Tories raised $15 million. On a quartely basis that's $1.2M, $1.23M and $5M respectively.
So, if the Tories do succeed in eventually getting rid of the subsidy, based on these numbers, the Tories would lose 34 per cent of their funding, the NDP 51 per cent of their funding and the Liberals 64 per cent. (Is my math right?)
Sunday Hat, your math might be right, but I think one of your assumptions is not quite right. Meaning, I'm not sure you can extrapolate down to the quarter from the first 3 quarters of the year, since quarters vary in how much of a fundraising draw they can be (i.e., the 4th quarter is usually the strongest, and that would be especially true if an election was going on at the time).
Instead, if we took the last 2 quarters of 2007 and the first 2 quarters of 2008, we'd have a more reliable outcome. Doing that math, I get:
(party :: subsidy / raised :: subsidy as % of total)
BQ :: 3,000,782 / 441,610 :: 87.2%
Libs :: 8,654,228 / 4,497,290 :: 65.8%
NDP :: 5,003,098 / 3,850,289 :: 56.5%
Gre :: 1,282,978 / 1,057,665 :: 54.8%
Con :: 10,382,704 / 16,525,811 :: 38.6%
These obviously numbers do not include election-time fundraising, given their timeframe, and the Bloc always goes up during that time. Also, they do not include other sources of party revenue. For example the NDP owns a building and has other tenants who pay rent to them.
And, obviously, the numbers are about to change a bit based on the recent election results. So, you might see the Liberal percentage go up a bit, based on nothing more than their declining share of the subsidy.
Anyways, that's the way I look at the numbers.
Tthe Liberals should continue to get over $2.1 milion a quarter from their votes last election, at least until the next election. If they continue to raise about $1.2 million a quarter by their own efforts, that would mean about $3.3 million in 3 months and the $2.1 million subsidy would be about 2/3 of 66% of the total monies avialable. ( 2/3 of 3.3 million is 2.2 million).
For the NDP, the subisidy would be about 1/2, 50% of monies available ($1.2 plus $1.23.equals 2.243
For the Cons 2.6 plus 5 equals 7.6. The 2.6 is about 1/3, 33%
Ther are many other factors to consider but yes, when the Cons attacked the subsidy they attacked the opposition,particularly the Liberals.
So, will there still be a Public Party?
The Libs got 3,633,185 votes in the 2008 election.
3,633,185 votes * $1.95 = $7,084,710.75 total subsidy
$7,084,710.75 / 4 quarters = $1,771,177.69 quarterly
Over the last 4 quarters (4th Q 2007 + 1st-3rd quarters 2008), they raised $5,558,707.
$5,558,707 / 4 quarters = $1,389,676.75 quarterly
Thus, assuming the Libs can maintain those fundraising numbers, the subsidy will represent ...
100 * $1,771,177.69 / ($1,771,177.69 + $1,389,676.75) = 56%
The 4th Quarter is always the heaviest quarter for fundraising, since contributions are most heavily marketed then based on their year-end tax credit elibigility.
But if they do raise as little as $1.2 million per quarter as you hypothesize, then the percent would work out to
100 * $1,771,177.69 / ($1,771,177.69 + $1,200,000) = 59.6%
Sunday Hat,
Your numbers are right for the most part, the above exceptions aside.
However, a good analysis that you might want to do, is to look at how much the Conservatives are getting funded through the other way. The funding that gives back up to 75% of the donation through tax deductions. Also, there is another way Canada funds parties which is the parties get back a percentage of what they spend in the election campaign.
If the Cons are serious about getting rid of taxpayers paying for political parties, why not attack all funding sources equally, rather than just the ones in which the Conservatives don't have such a substantial advantage.
Thw Liberal fundraising is overstated because it includes the 2006 leadership campaigns who were very active.
I looked at it recently, and I believe it was on-third of their 3 quarter amounts. Which is the same as they raised in the first 3 quarters of 2007 [when the leadership campaigns raised very little].
While the NDP increased 50% for the 3 quarter stretch, so is currently raising 50% more than the Liberals.
Interesting note that Iggys pick for heading the LPC is the current CEO of the Heart & Stroke Foundation. The recent success of fundraising for Iggy's leadership campaign is not easily transferrable to the party, and the structure of the LPC would be a challenge for anybody, but Iggy's pick is the first concrete good sign for turning around their fundraising. At best for them, that will take some time before [if] any positive effects show. Then again he may crash and burn: non-profits have very few local jealous petty tyrants to contend with.
And here's a great site for chewing over the financial statements of the parties. The data is tabulated, and has links to the Elections Canada filings.
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2009/01/is-liberal-party-broke-several-other.php
If they want to get rid of federal subsidies for the parties, then tax away the tax deduction from the donations. As it clearly costs more than the all party subsidy. Oh wait that would hurt the fund raising of the cons wouldn't it.
Attacking opposition funding makes a lot more sense for the Tories than either electoral or senate reform for sure. They have a solid 22 percent registered voter support base and could go on and on for years perogying and flipping off the large majority in opposition.