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Quebec By-election

Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

 I thought this Bilection deserved its own thread.


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onlinediscountanvils
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Joined: Jun 7 2012


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

Denis Coderre, a former Liberal cabinet minister of Immigration, will officially announce on May 16th that he will run for Mayor of Montreal. He plans to resign as MP for the Montreal riding of Bourassa when the current Parliamentary session ends in June. The election for mayor takes place on November 13, 2013. 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/liberal-mp-denis-coderre-...


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Its actually a good thing he's techniquely sticking around till sometime in June, that means probably no bielection till Autumn which gives us time for Trudeau's honey moon to end.

lagatta
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Joined: Apr 17 2002

I don't understand, Brachina; I don't even see any by-elections on the roster here in the near future.

By the way, Brachina, it is "by-election", not Bielection. I'm not saying that as a spelling stickler (though of course I am) but because at first I really didn't understand what you were talking about.

Coderre is a bourgeois, "business-friendly" pig, with no concern for the environment or the lives of working-class Montrealers.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Hey the internet is no place for proper spelling, if it was twitter would die:p Yeah not a fan of the current MP, here's hoping who ever runs in this riding can take it from the Liberals.

lagatta
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Joined: Apr 17 2002

Brachina, I wasn't taking the blue pencil to you, I simply didn't understand the title of this thread.

I have no interest in twitter. But if I send work over the Internet, it has to be spelled properly. Many of us use it for work.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I was joking Lagatta. And yes what I meant was By-Election. Maybe a mode can change it if they want.

lagatta
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Joined: Apr 17 2002

You can probably change your own opening post.

I enjoy commenting on websites as I work at home, alone, so no coffee break gossip. But I don't find ignorance cute. (No, I'm not accusing you of ignorance, just head-slapping at those who think poor spelling and grammar are somehow cool).


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

They should be invoking Jack's (Blessed be his memory), memory in ths campaign. The reall saying should have been, help us continue what Jack started. Join us.  We need to reclaim the idea of change. If we don't start soon, the meme will start to stick and it'll make it harder to knock Le Dauphin down to size.


Catchfire
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Joined: Apr 16 2003

Brachina, I'm going to assume you don't know that the phrase "sloppy seconds" is vulgar and almost always sexist. It is not, fyi, talking about leftover food. Although it was enough to get Sean Avery kicked off the Dallas Stars, I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were simply using a phrase you didn't understand.

At any rate, the takeaway is this: use more care when you post, please.


onlinediscountanvils
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Joined: Jun 7 2012

Brachina wrote:
I thought this Bilection deserved its own thread.

 

Intended or not, 'bilection' is my new favourite portmanteau.


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

While the NDP came relatively close in Bourassa in 2011 it will be a tough seat to win in a by-election. It is heavily allophone, with a largely Italian population. Allophones are the Liberals' last bastion in Montreal.

The recent polling in Quebec shows that the Liberals have gained much more among non-Francophones than Francophones. It is likely Trudeau's glow will dim over the next few months but he may well have more resilience among voters like those in Bourasssa. 


lagatta
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Joined: Apr 17 2002

That is where he has more resilience in Papineau; essentially in Parc-Extension, the westernmost part of the riding. There aren't many Italians there now; probably more in Villeray, and certainly in the part of St-Michel that is in Papineau, but still a fair number of Greeks, who have similar voting patterns, and a lot of South Asians now. Bourassa also has a large Haitian population, and people from Latin American countries. But the more recent waves of immigrants weren't isolated in ghetto "English" schools (where there were no actual English-speakers). Law 101 was a very good thing for integration.

I can't stand Trudeau, but I'll give him one thing (here the heavens part in shock); he was much more forthright than other politicians in the area against the tiny clique of racists and real-estate speculators who sabotaged the short-term residence in Villeray for Inuit people from northern Québec (Nunavik) receiving medical care here. The Québec Liberal MP, Gerry Sklavounos, as well as the local arrondissement council, were shameful in their incapacity to stand up to the bigotry of very few and in the case of the borough (arrondissement) mayor, to suck it up and admit that she was woefully in error about the vocation of the residence (the bigots had passed out a leaflet saying that it was a treatment centre for substance-abusing Natives). Trudeau did say the ignorance and bigotry were shameful, and certainly did not go along with such stereotypes about Aboriginal people, in an area that prides itself on its cosmopolitanism...

The former Chinese Hospital at the corner of St-Denis and Faillon (a couple of streets north of Jean-Talon Market) still stands empty; obviously speculators are salivating about it. It had all kinds of accomodations for people needing medical assistance and accessibility.

The Inuit patients are still in woefully inadequate housing, in a dodgy part of NDG (a large district that includes posh and average areas, but also some less-desirable places).


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

How much do you want to bet that while Harper couldn't wait to call the Labrador by-election as soon as he could, he'll wait untill around the six-month deadline (November 18th?) to set a date sometime in 2014 for this seat?

He's done it before.

Bill Graham resigned as Liberal M.P. for Toronto Centre on June 19, 2007.  Knowing that the Conservatives wouldn't win the seat, the by-election to replace him didn't happen untill March 17, 2008, almost 9 months later.

Meanwhile, B.Q. MP Michel Gauthier resigned from Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean seat on July 29, 2007, and the by-election was called for September 17, 2007, which the Conservatives won.

Wanna bet?

 


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Could Brian Topp run here? Or Julius Grey?


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011

Brian Topp isn't going to run anywhere, IMO


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

knownothing wrote:

Brian Topp isn't going to run anywhere, IMO

Agreed. He seems like more of a coat-tails rider than a risk taker, despite vowing to run in 2015 regardless of the outcome of the leadership race.


6079_Smith_W
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Joined: Jun 10 2010

@ felixr

I don't know where you get that from. I don't know Brian, and only met him once during the leadership campaign. But it seems to me any venture of that scale involves taking some considerable risk. More risk than I would be willing to take, and certainly more risk than someone would take by running in a single riding.

I know people involved in politics are fair game when it comes to commentary, but still....

 


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

Bourassa 2011 results:

Coderre 40.9%

NDP 32.3%

Bloc 16.1%

Conservative 8.8%

Green 1.6%

Marxist-Leninist 0.3%

Even if the Bloc vote had totally collapsed in 2011, the NDP would have lost. By the second choices taken from the EKOS poll taken April 28-30, 2011, the Bloc votes would have gone 2,991 NDP, 672 Liberal, 2,442 other or no second choice. Not enough to catch the Liberal, who still wins by 961 votes.

Coderre got personal star votes. The Liberals will need a star to do as well. The NDP will need a real star too. Should be fascinating.

 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=fullcomment.nationalpo... This is Mulcair's home turf Montreal and a riding where we came in a very respectable second, its winnable, so finding a star candiate is very likely. If Justin Trudeau keeps his hands off the nomination for all we know know he could end up with a antichoice candiate. Epecially this to be alouder and more brutal campaign then Labradour, which wasn't that quiet to begin with. Also expect the riding to be swarmed by NDP MPs and Mulcair to start aiming his attacks when in the riding more at Justin and vis versa. Hell maybe instead of the people running it should be Mulcair vs. Justin in the By-Election debate! I kid, but barely. Justin would never agree to a debate he didn't have to attend anyway. So who should run here, someone preferably local and very popular, but with substance to contrast with Justin's lack of substance.

Ottawa Centre-Left
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Joined: Mar 6 2012

I don't know if that is his neighbourhood to be considered 'local', but Julius Grey would be my choice of a substantive star candidate who is close to the party and has expressed interest to run:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Grey

Brachina wrote:
So who should run here, someone preferably local and very popular, but with substance to contrast with Justin's lack of substance.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

David Young wrote:

How much do you want to bet that while Harper couldn't wait to call the Labrador by-election as soon as he could, he'll wait untill around the six-month deadline (November 18th?) to set a date sometime in 2014 for this seat?

He's done it before.

Bill Graham resigned as Liberal M.P. for Toronto Centre on June 19, 2007.  Knowing that the Conservatives wouldn't win the seat, the by-election to replace him didn't happen untill March 17, 2008, almost 9 months later.

Meanwhile, B.Q. MP Michel Gauthier resigned from Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean seat on July 29, 2007, and the by-election was called for September 17, 2007, which the Conservatives won.

Wanna bet?

 

Does anyone want to take my bet that after losing the Labrador by-election, Harper waits until the last possible time to call this by-election...unless another opposition seat opens up and the Conservatives think they have a chance to win it?

 


lagatta
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Joined: Apr 17 2002

True that Grey would be a candidate of substance, but I'd love to see someone coming out of Montréal-Nord's very multi-ethnic community action scene. Will Prosper was an excellent candidate for Québec solidaire; NDP might find him too radical, but who knows? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViemQiajrjU

I like this one too - it is more impressions of the neighbourhood and its people, no real dialogue except the theme - Debout! (Stand Up!) Solidarité: http://vimeo.com/48460060 There are of course others with more dialogue and debate, which you'll easily find online from these, if you are fluent in French


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

David Young wrote:

David Young wrote:

How much do you want to bet that while Harper couldn't wait to call the Labrador by-election as soon as he could, he'll wait untill around the six-month deadline (November 18th?) to set a date sometime in 2014 for this seat?

He's done it before.

Bill Graham resigned as Liberal M.P. for Toronto Centre on June 19, 2007.  Knowing that the Conservatives wouldn't win the seat, the by-election to replace him didn't happen untill March 17, 2008, almost 9 months later.

Meanwhile, B.Q. MP Michel Gauthier resigned from Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean seat on July 29, 2007, and the by-election was called for September 17, 2007, which the Conservatives won.

Wanna bet?

 

Does anyone want to take my bet that after losing the Labrador by-election, Harper waits until the last possible time to call this by-election...unless another opposition seat opens up and the Conservatives think they have a chance to win it?

 

This is a fight between the Liberals and the NDP, the Tories are an none entity here and as such there are zero expectations for them, unlike in Labradour. Honestly they may wish to use this as a way to change to channel and take to focus off themselves.

Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
The question isn't is he too radical for the NDP, its will the riding accept him and can he fit in in a federalist party. Some in QS can, some in QS can't. Is he an Alexander Boultice or that guy who shifted over to the Bloc?

cco
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Joined: Apr 25 2005
lagatta wrote:
Will Prosper was an excellent candidate for Québec solidaire
He also has the best name of any Canadian politician I've ever heard of, IMO. Will Prosper!

lagatta
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Joined: Apr 17 2002

Will was just an example, anyway. There's plenty more where he came from!


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Julious Grey is meanted in this article and I agree with him.

jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

I expect Harper to delay the election, but for me it is important that the NDP pick a candidate relatively quickly, unlike in the Calgary and Ontario byelections last fall, where I think we could have done better if the candidates were chosen well before the election writ was dropped and therefore had more time to campaign and get known to the voters in their ridings. 


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

The NDP should start the nomination process on June 3rd.  It should be for a fall nomination meeting so that interested candidates have lots of time to sell memberships and increase the NDP support in the riding. Of course if Harper were to call the by-election really quickly that would be a different story but certainly the babble insight is that he will wait on the call.

Quote:

Coderre announced that he will resign as a Liberal MP on June 2, exactly 16 years after he was first elected.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2013/05/16/mtl-denis-coderr...

 


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