Quebec By-election

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Brachina
Quebec By-election

 I thought this Bilection deserved its own thread.

onlinediscountanvils

Brachina

Its actually a good thing he's techniquely sticking around till sometime in June, that means probably no bielection till Autumn which gives us time for Trudeau's honey moon to end.

lagatta

I don't understand, Brachina; I don't even see any by-elections on the roster here in the near future.

By the way, Brachina, it is "by-election", not Bielection. I'm not saying that as a spelling stickler (though of course I am) but because at first I really didn't understand what you were talking about.

Coderre is a bourgeois, "business-friendly" pig, with no concern for the environment or the lives of working-class Montrealers.

jerrym

Denis Coderre, a former Liberal cabinet minister of Immigration, will officially announce on May 16th that he will run for Mayor of Montreal. He plans to resign as MP for the Montreal riding of Bourassa when the current Parliamentary session ends in June. The election for mayor takes place on November 13, 2013. 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/liberal-mp-denis-coderre-...

Brachina

Hey the internet is no place for proper spelling, if it was twitter would die:p

Yeah not a fan of the current MP, here's hoping who ever runs in this riding can take it from the Liberals.

lagatta

Brachina, I wasn't taking the blue pencil to you, I simply didn't understand the title of this thread.

I have no interest in twitter. But if I send work over the Internet, it has to be spelled properly. Many of us use it for work.

Brachina

I was joking Lagatta.

And yes what I meant was By-Election. Maybe a mode can change it if they want.

lagatta

You can probably change your own opening post.

I enjoy commenting on websites as I work at home, alone, so no coffee break gossip. But I don't find ignorance cute. (No, I'm not accusing you of ignorance, just head-slapping at those who think poor spelling and grammar are somehow cool).

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

They should be invoking Jack's (Blessed be his memory), memory in ths campaign. The reall saying should have been, help us continue what Jack started. Join us.  We need to reclaim the idea of change. If we don't start soon, the meme will start to stick and it'll make it harder to knock Le Dauphin down to size.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Brachina, I'm going to assume you don't know that the phrase "sloppy seconds" is vulgar and almost always sexist. It is not, fyi, talking about leftover food. Although it was enough to get Sean Avery kicked off the Dallas Stars, I am going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were simply using a phrase you didn't understand.

At any rate, the takeaway is this: use more care when you post, please.

onlinediscountanvils

Brachina wrote:
I thought this Bilection deserved its own thread.

 

Intended or not, 'bilection' is my new favourite portmanteau.

nicky

While the NDP came relatively close in Bourassa in 2011 it will be a tough seat to win in a by-election. It is heavily allophone, with a largely Italian population. Allophones are the Liberals' last bastion in Montreal.

The recent polling in Quebec shows that the Liberals have gained much more among non-Francophones than Francophones. It is likely Trudeau's glow will dim over the next few months but he may well have more resilience among voters like those in Bourasssa. 

lagatta

That is where he has more resilience in Papineau; essentially in Parc-Extension, the westernmost part of the riding. There aren't many Italians there now; probably more in Villeray, and certainly in the part of St-Michel that is in Papineau, but still a fair number of Greeks, who have similar voting patterns, and a lot of South Asians now. Bourassa also has a large Haitian population, and people from Latin American countries. But the more recent waves of immigrants weren't isolated in ghetto "English" schools (where there were no actual English-speakers). Law 101 was a very good thing for integration.

I can't stand Trudeau, but I'll give him one thing (here the heavens part in shock); he was much more forthright than other politicians in the area against the tiny clique of racists and real-estate speculators who sabotaged the short-term residence in Villeray for Inuit people from northern Québec (Nunavik) receiving medical care here. The Québec Liberal MP, Gerry Sklavounos, as well as the local arrondissement council, were shameful in their incapacity to stand up to the bigotry of very few and in the case of the borough (arrondissement) mayor, to suck it up and admit that she was woefully in error about the vocation of the residence (the bigots had passed out a leaflet saying that it was a treatment centre for substance-abusing Natives). Trudeau did say the ignorance and bigotry were shameful, and certainly did not go along with such stereotypes about Aboriginal people, in an area that prides itself on its cosmopolitanism...

The former Chinese Hospital at the corner of St-Denis and Faillon (a couple of streets north of Jean-Talon Market) still stands empty; obviously speculators are salivating about it. It had all kinds of accomodations for people needing medical assistance and accessibility.

The Inuit patients are still in woefully inadequate housing, in a dodgy part of NDG (a large district that includes posh and average areas, but also some less-desirable places).

David Young

How much do you want to bet that while Harper couldn't wait to call the Labrador by-election as soon as he could, he'll wait untill around the six-month deadline (November 18th?) to set a date sometime in 2014 for this seat?

He's done it before.

Bill Graham resigned as Liberal M.P. for Toronto Centre on June 19, 2007.  Knowing that the Conservatives wouldn't win the seat, the by-election to replace him didn't happen untill March 17, 2008, almost 9 months later.

Meanwhile, B.Q. MP Michel Gauthier resigned from Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean seat on July 29, 2007, and the by-election was called for September 17, 2007, which the Conservatives won.

Wanna bet?

 

robbie_dee

Could Brian Topp run here? Or Julius Grey?

knownothing knownothing's picture

Brian Topp isn't going to run anywhere, IMO

felixr

knownothing wrote:

Brian Topp isn't going to run anywhere, IMO

Agreed. He seems like more of a coat-tails rider than a risk taker, despite vowing to run in 2015 regardless of the outcome of the leadership race.

6079_Smith_W

@ felixr

I don't know where you get that from. I don't know Brian, and only met him once during the leadership campaign. But it seems to me any venture of that scale involves taking some considerable risk. More risk than I would be willing to take, and certainly more risk than someone would take by running in a single riding.

I know people involved in politics are fair game when it comes to commentary, but still....

 

Wilf Day

Bourassa 2011 results:

Coderre 40.9%

NDP 32.3%

Bloc 16.1%

Conservative 8.8%

Green 1.6%

Marxist-Leninist 0.3%

Even if the Bloc vote had totally collapsed in 2011, the NDP would have lost. By the second choices taken from the EKOS poll taken April 28-30, 2011, the Bloc votes would have gone 2,991 NDP, 672 Liberal, 2,442 other or no second choice. Not enough to catch the Liberal, who still wins by 961 votes.

Coderre got personal star votes. The Liberals will need a star to do as well. The NDP will need a real star too. Should be fascinating.

 

Brachina

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=fullcomment.nationalpo...

This is Mulcair's home turf Montreal and a riding where we came in a very respectable second, its winnable, so finding a star candiate is very likely. If Justin Trudeau keeps his hands off the nomination for all we know know he could end up with a antichoice candiate.

Epecially this to be alouder and more brutal campaign then Labradour, which wasn't that quiet to begin with. Also expect the riding to be swarmed by NDP MPs and Mulcair to start aiming his attacks when in the riding more at Justin and vis versa.

Hell maybe instead of the people running it should be Mulcair vs. Justin in the By-Election debate! I kid, but barely. Justin would never agree to a debate he didn't have to attend anyway.

So who should run here, someone preferably local and very popular, but with substance to contrast with Justin's lack of substance.

Ottawa Centre-Left

I don't know if that is his neighbourhood to be considered 'local', but Julius Grey would be my choice of a substantive star candidate who is close to the party and has expressed interest to run:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Grey

Brachina wrote:
So who should run here, someone preferably local and very popular, but with substance to contrast with Justin's lack of substance.

David Young

David Young wrote:

How much do you want to bet that while Harper couldn't wait to call the Labrador by-election as soon as he could, he'll wait untill around the six-month deadline (November 18th?) to set a date sometime in 2014 for this seat?

He's done it before.

Bill Graham resigned as Liberal M.P. for Toronto Centre on June 19, 2007.  Knowing that the Conservatives wouldn't win the seat, the by-election to replace him didn't happen untill March 17, 2008, almost 9 months later.

Meanwhile, B.Q. MP Michel Gauthier resigned from Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean seat on July 29, 2007, and the by-election was called for September 17, 2007, which the Conservatives won.

Wanna bet?

 

Does anyone want to take my bet that after losing the Labrador by-election, Harper waits until the last possible time to call this by-election...unless another opposition seat opens up and the Conservatives think they have a chance to win it?

 

lagatta

True that Grey would be a candidate of substance, but I'd love to see someone coming out of Montréal-Nord's very multi-ethnic community action scene. Will Prosper was an excellent candidate for Québec solidaire; NDP might find him too radical, but who knows? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViemQiajrjU

I like this one too - it is more impressions of the neighbourhood and its people, no real dialogue except the theme - Debout! (Stand Up!) Solidarité: http://vimeo.com/48460060 There are of course others with more dialogue and debate, which you'll easily find online from these, if you are fluent in French

Brachina

David Young wrote:

David Young wrote:

How much do you want to bet that while Harper couldn't wait to call the Labrador by-election as soon as he could, he'll wait untill around the six-month deadline (November 18th?) to set a date sometime in 2014 for this seat?

He's done it before.

Bill Graham resigned as Liberal M.P. for Toronto Centre on June 19, 2007.  Knowing that the Conservatives wouldn't win the seat, the by-election to replace him didn't happen untill March 17, 2008, almost 9 months later.

Meanwhile, B.Q. MP Michel Gauthier resigned from Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean seat on July 29, 2007, and the by-election was called for September 17, 2007, which the Conservatives won.

Wanna bet?

 

Does anyone want to take my bet that after losing the Labrador by-election, Harper waits until the last possible time to call this by-election...unless another opposition seat opens up and the Conservatives think they have a chance to win it?

 

This is a fight between the Liberals and the NDP, the Tories are an none entity here and as such there are zero expectations for them, unlike in Labradour. Honestly they may wish to use this as a way to change to channel and take to focus off themselves.

Brachina

The question isn't is he too radical for the NDP, its will the riding accept him and can he fit in in a federalist party. Some in QS can, some in QS can't. Is he an Alexander Boultice or that guy who shifted over to the Bloc?

cco

lagatta wrote:
Will Prosper was an excellent candidate for Québec solidaire

He also has the best name of any Canadian politician I've ever heard of, IMO. Will Prosper!

lagatta

Will was just an example, anyway. There's plenty more where he came from!

Brachina

Julious Grey is meanted in this article and I agree with him.

jerrym

I expect Harper to delay the election, but for me it is important that the NDP pick a candidate relatively quickly, unlike in the Calgary and Ontario byelections last fall, where I think we could have done better if the candidates were chosen well before the election writ was dropped and therefore had more time to campaign and get known to the voters in their ridings. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP should start the nomination process on June 3rd.  It should be for a fall nomination meeting so that interested candidates have lots of time to sell memberships and increase the NDP support in the riding. Of course if Harper were to call the by-election really quickly that would be a different story but certainly the babble insight is that he will wait on the call.

Quote:

Coderre announced that he will resign as a Liberal MP on June 2, exactly 16 years after he was first elected.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2013/05/16/mtl-denis-coderr...

 

NeedToVote101

I tried to look up some possible candidates myself. I know the NDP gained number of votes in Labrador, but it wasn't enough to shake the media who is fixated on dismissing the NDP or relegating them back to third party status. I pray to the great Lord above that the NDP can somehow recruit a candidate that is very well liked with the people of this riding. A person that is already well known and who may or may not be ensconced in the politics of the region. We need something federally to wake the party and the naysayers up. I know that their is an underlying support for the NDP, two years of constant support does not immediately erode simply because a new leader enters the fold.  It just doesn't happen.

After the screw up in polls in the BC election, I have lost complete confidence in the use of polls. Polls are a misguided tool that the media uses to claim that through the use of freedom of press and information are getting real info out to the public. In reality, they are only using these polls to make headline news that will govern how people will ultimately vote. Ultimately, they are deciding an election for the electorate.

The NDP must not just get a star candidate, but another Mulcair-Outremont candidate. Someone who is beloved by eveyone. It is a hard thing to achieve, but it can be done. I just hope they were looking even before this thread was started. That is one thing I have to admit the NDP is failing on. They are waiting far too long to find good, sound, resilient candidates.

Lastly, whomever this candidate is... I'm sorry for those who disagree, must not be associated with a separatist party. If the media is not going to stop spewing opinions, we need to avoid creating the opinions in the first place, as much as possible!

Thank you!

trotwood73

NeedToVote101 wrote:

The NDP must not just get a star candidate, but another Mulcair-Outremont candidate. Someone who is beloved by eveyone. It is a hard thing to achieve, but it can be done. I just hope they were looking even before this thread was started. That is one thing I have to admit the NDP is failing on. They are waiting far too long to find good, sound, resilient candidates.

This has been on the NDP radar for a while now. Two articles:

New Democrats already sizing up Denis Coderre’s riding (iPolitics - Oct 31, 2012)

 

Le NPD lorgne déjà la circonscription de Coderre  (LaPresse - Aug 21, 2012) 

[Here's a translation thru Google for non-French speakers

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Does anybody know what the members in that riding want. After all in the NDP it is their choice not the Ottawa office's. 

NeedToVote101

Thanks trotwood73! That article just got me more excited about the possibilities of this by-election.

I think maybe it's safe to say that this riding, in a concerning way, will be viewed as the NDP's to lose. The NDP needs to kick some behind here. The pressure is on! Ultimately, the media will be taking this opportunity to prove to Canadians and Quebecers that the Liberals are the only alternative to the Conservatives. On the other hand, stealing this riding from the Liberals will turn heads and create excitement for the NDP across the country.

I can't watch what comes next, lol.

Good question, kropotkin1951, I would also like to know! Any insight anybody? Would be interesting to know if anybody within the riding have come forward with interest.

lagatta

But after the so-called "orange wave" here, nobody would think it strange to vote for an NDP candidate. I only wish the NDP had been able to best Trudeau - now that he is leader, that is all but impossible.

Need to vote, Alexandre Boulerice belonged to Québec solidaire, and wasn't the only successful NDP candidate here who had been associated with them ... er, us. The "separatist" bogeyman simply doesn't have the same currency here. Before Trudeau took Laurier-Dorion, Viviane Barbot of the Bloc québécois was MP there. My Federal MP is Boulerice, my Québec MNA is Françoise David of QS - and my arrondissement is Projet Montréal. There are plenty of people here who vote on other grounds - in my area, it is obviously a strong left and environmentalist vote. Lots of sovereignists voted for Boulerice; lots of federalists voted for David.

I wouldn't say Mulcair is "loved", in the same way as Jack Layton, for example. He is highly respected, which is good enough, no? I loathe "love-in" politics, that's what the new Trudeau craze is.

I'd love to see someone from the many grassroots community associations and movements in that area. Someone progressive, that is.

Brachina

I don't mind someone from QS as long as they don't pull a Patry and as long as they make peace with being a federalist.

jerrym

lagatta wrote:

The "separatist" bogeyman simply doesn't have the same currency here. Before Trudeau took Laurier-Dorion, Viviane Barbot of the Bloc québécois was MP there. 

That's because they have friends and/or relatives on both sides of the issue and realize they are human beings. In fact, some Quebec voters, voted yes in one referendum and no in the next so they don't see the sides in black and white terms.

I know that from my own family. On one side of the family, my uncle was a commander of the IRA who took the local village that was an important communications centre from the British in the 1920s War of Independence. However, when Collins signed a deal left the North in British hands, and he suported this he was harassed and left for the US because his county was the heartland of the part of the IRA who rejected deal. On the other side of the family, my great-grandfather rose to the rank of sargeant-major, the highest rank avaiable from a poor peasant Irish family at the time. When you know people well who you respect on both sides it is much harder to see people involved in other issues as pure black and white. Sometimes some people here appear to forget that.

Ottawa Centre-Left

The former Liberal MP from the neighbouring riding Pablo Rodriguez is being touted since "star federal Liberal candidates are not beating down the doors in Quebec". However, he seems to prefer to try again for his old riding next time.

Reference:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberal+bastion+face+uncertain+futur...

 

lagatta wrote:

True that Grey would be a candidate of substance, but I'd love to see someone coming out of Montréal-Nord's very multi-ethnic community action scene. Will Prosper was an excellent candidate for Québec solidaire; NDP might find him too radical, but who knows?

Brachina

I'd laugh my ass off if the Liberals fail to find a star candiate to run.

Ottawa Centre-Left

I wonder if former Liberal star candidates such Jocelyn Coulon or Sébastien Dhavernas are free? :)

Brachina wrote:
I'd laugh my ass off if the Liberals fail to find a star candiate to run.

NeedToVote101

Lagatta, thanks for your remarks!

I should correct myself when I say "Lastly, whomever this candidate is... I'm sorry for those who disagree, must not be associated with a separatist party".

I don't really care personally if a candidate and an elected MP was associated with a separatist party. Doesn't bother me in the least, I'm from Northern Ontario and I understand the Quebec political dynamic.

Sadly, I fall in what might be only 10% of the Canadian population outside of Quebec who understands. Sadly, it is a constant battle arguing with other Canadians who feel that as soon as a party has a few former associated separatist MPs it means the entire political party and its policies are separatist. It may not hurt the NDP in Quebec, it certainly brusies them outside of the province.

I just want the rest of Canada to see that new NDP candidate as not only a star candidate but one that does not fall in the "See, and that's why I'll never vote NDP" category. We have an opportunity here to elect someone in Quebec that Quebecers and Canadians will both like. The NDP, sadly will always be faced with having to proving itself to the Canadian media who are primarily owned by Conservative and Liberal supporters. One of the reasons the NDP did so well is because some of the media outlets began to support the NDP late in the election in 2011, most notably the Toronto Star.

On a side note, but still on this topic:

"t is not every byelection that is a make-or-break test of leadership, but there are some that a leader cannot afford to lose. Trudeau has as much if not more on the line against the NDP and the Bloc in Bourassa as he did against the Conservatives in Labrador." - Chantal Hebert - Toronto Star - 4 days ago:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/05/14/labrador_holds_few_clues_t...

Comment by a commentator:

"Trudeau is the new Layton. He has the image and is the symbol of change. People want Harper out. To bring Trudeau in people will vote Liberal. 
Trudeau might not have as much experience as Mulcair but he's more known than Mulcair. 
Ask someone who knows nothing about politics; they'll know the PM, they'll know Trudeau, they might recognize May, but Mulcair is unknown."

He has the sentiment of a traditionalist english speaking Canadian. Problem is he is an idiot. He goes on to say "ask someone who knows about politics" I would say if you couldn't name any of the leaders of all political parties then you know "jack" about politics!

 

Brachina

 I'd add that Mulcair is much better know in Quebec then in the ROC.

Brachina

Hopefully the new NDP TV will help who ever runs in the riding.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

You mean the one where we learn Mulcair is a good coach, his family loves him and he promises change that voters want.

It has to be one of the weakest pieces of drivel I have seen and ranks right up there with, "One Practical Step at a Time."  The NDP stands for change but they don't want to tell you what they will change but since Tom is a friendly fighter then we can all relax and vote for him.

The cult of the leader does not work well when your leader is not charismatic and has no presence with voters.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

You mean the one where we learn Mulcair is a good coach, his family loves him and he promises change that voters want.

It has to be one of the weakest pieces of drivel I have seen and ranks right up there with, "One Practical Step at a Time."  The NDP stands for change but they don't want to tell you what they will change but since Tom is a friendly fighter then we can all relax and vote for him.

The cult of the leader does not work well when your leader is not charismatic and has no presence with voters.

 

Or, it may work.

By the way K, here is a personal portrait I did of you:

 

K1951

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Arthur all you have to do is convince the rest of Canadian voters that they too should listen to your Dad and Granddad and the NDP will form government without even having to talk about the issues. 

Your personal insults at least are getting better although you still haven't got away from them.

Will it help you if I agree that I am personally responsible for the NDP's loss in BC and will be responsible for the federal party's crash and burn in the next election.  Someday I am astounded at my influence on the world of politics,

Too bad you and your party never want to talk about what you believe in.  Most voters don't agree that what the NDP believes in goes without saying. 

Ippurigakko

Bourassa by-election on forum research May 17 (501 surveyed)
LIB 45% (+4)
BQ 26% (+10)
NDP 21% (-11)
GRN 3% (+1)
CON 3% (-6)

Francophone
LIB 43%
BQ 28%
NDP 22%
GRN 3%
CON 3%

Anglophone/Allophone
LIB 69%
NDP 12%
GRN 7%
CON 7%
BQ 4%

janfromthebruce

Ippurigakko wrote:

Bourassa by-election on forum research May 17 (501 surveyed)
LIB 45% (+4)
BQ 26% (+10)
NDP 21% (-11)
GRN 3% (+1)
CON 3% (-6)

Francophone
LIB 43%
BQ 28%
NDP 22%
GRN 3%
CON 3%

Anglophone/Allophone
LIB 69%
NDP 12%
GRN 7%
CON 7%
BQ 4%

providing a link would be great.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

IP, May 17th?

Ippurigakko

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