Sen. Larry Smith to run for Conservatives in Lac St. Louis riding

Just as an aside, I think I read once that Larry Smith and Jack Layton were classmates growing up in Hudson, QC and are personal friends (though evidently political enemies).

What lead to this particular seat being chosen as opposed to the other West Island seats?

I do wonder how many polls Eric Tillman is going to canvas.

I think because it's one they held in the Mulroney era.  The game that's afoot seems to be to get the Liberals very worried and tied down in their bastions, so they don't have the resources to grow elsewhere.

So much for the CONS being the anti-elitist party. That statement of his needs to be propogated far and wide. Asshat.

Also let us not forget that Larry Smith was responsible for the Sacramento Gold Miners, the Memphis Mad Dogs, the Shreveport Pirates... etc.

This has to be rated as one of the least well-prepared candidate launches I've seen the Conservatives roll out. And, they actually had a good chance to win up until that point.

Now what would be the right word to describe it. Hmmmmm......"catastrophic"?

47% listed English as a Mother Tongue in the last Census. No other Quebec riding is within 10% of that. Pierrefonds-Dollard, Notre-dame-de-Grace, Westmount-Ville Marie & Mount Royal are all in the low to mid 30s.

W/Beaconsfield and all, LSL is also the most "Anglo-affluent" of the Montreal seats--it'd be like choosing Don Valley West as a gateway seat for the 416...

That past performance in a riding is not necessarily an indicator of future strength, unless you rigourously test it by running a strong opposing campaign. That's what the Conservtives thought they would find out in Vaughan, and the West Island Liberal MPs are some of the weakest politically in the Liberal caucus, so why not test it out more rigourously if you're a Conservative.

Meanwhile, however, I think that "dramatic, catastrophic pay cut" remark has legs if people work it right. I can't imagine saying something less well-attuned to people's feelings in the middle of a slowdown ... particularly at this time of year.

I wonder how they figured this kind of a move would work for them. They think West Islanders can't immediately see through it?

Smith doesn't take his Senate seat until February 2 according to P&P last night.  When's the next Federal Budget?

Minimum donation: a lump of coal?

I think he has to step down to run, not just when he gets elected.

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/12/21/que-larry-smith-senate.html

But I get it now.

It's a signal to that riding that they will get a cabinet minister if they elect him.

There's been an erosion of Liberal support in most ridings in Canada since 2000.  That's not necessarily significant because it has been an across the board trend ever since they lost the majority power in 2004.

In terms of this riding, from what I can tell it has always been Liberal except for the 2 Mulroney wins in 1984 and 1988 and that was when the Consevatives had a Quebec leader who was winning landslides across the province.  Harper is in a much weaker position in Quebec compared to Mulroney.

The other factor that is important to remember is that it was the old PC party that won this riding, not the new Conservative party.  The new Conservative party is considered more right wing than the old PC party and does not have the history of success in Montreal and urban centres that the old one did.

I suppose it is possible it could happen, but whenever I've been in West Island visiting family over the past couple of years, it has seemed that Harper is pretty disliked in the area.

Vaughan was an interesting result, but I think that was easier for the Cons than West Island will be.  Vaughan is more right-leaning, had no incumbent MP during the by-election, and the Cons had finished closer there in 2008 than they did in West Island.

Ignatieff isn't personally popular himself, no, but the Liberals remain more popular than the Conservatives in Montreal.  I remember seeing an interview with PQ strategist Josee Legault during 2008 in which she predicted that the Harper Conservatives will never break into Montreal.

The selection of Sen. Smith is even getting some criticism from Conservative columnists like Tasha Kheiriddin:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/12/22/tasha-kheiriddin-larry-sm...

Anyway, I think the one silver lining for Sen. Smith is that his controversial remarks were made now, and not during an election campaign.  Since it's the Christimas holidays, not a lot of people are paying attention to politics.  But during a campaign I think it could be fatal to complain about how low your salary as a Senator is.

@ Lens Solution:

I agree that the Conservatives won't win elsewhere in Montreal, in the next election-- but, as crazy as it may seem, I think the West Island has some kind of umbilical attachment to Ontario, and points West, both physically with the 401, and emotionally through the Anglo diaspora that diffused itself into the ROC, and remains in contact with family back home. 

The West Island is more than just a 'bedroom community'.  People both live and work there, and would just as soon drive the 2hrs. to Ottawa than endure the notorious traffic congestion and unreliable commuter trains into the downtown core. I know people who seldom venture in that direction.

Anyway, although the Senator's dumb comment about his 'paycut' may leave a bad taste for some, sadly, I don't think it'll do him much harm with this constituency.

As for Ayn Rand disciples like Ms. Kheiriddin, she scolds the Cons much like Stephen Harper used to do before he became his party's leader.  By doing so, she actually does Smith a favour by distancing him from the more extreme elements of the right. Indeed, a Conservative win there could prove to be a moderating influence at odds with her neocon agenda. What's more, I don't think that Lac St. Louis riding is as deeply red as she paints it.  This could yet be the Conservatives Outremont.

Although there are some wealthy areas, most of the people in the riding are middle class and are not milionaires like Smith.  I don't think they will be happy with his remarks.

However, as I said above, the silver lining for Smith is that he made these explosive comments now during the Christmas holidays when a lot of people are focused on other things.  It would have been much worse if he had said something like this during the middle of a campaign.

True.  And I'm sure they will be made an issue by his opponents in the next election and that they will cause some residual damage.

I'm just saying that I think that some of the impact of them will die out by the time of the next election.

Still, as an inexperienced celebrity candidate, he may end up getting into more trouble down the road.  Celebrity candidates are often a mixed blessing for political parties - they can sometimes attract positive attention, and they can sometimes become laughing stocks.

Senators?

There's no issue here folks. Time to move on.

If this is the best stuff we can throw against the Cons we are doomed.  

Larry Smith's 'dumbass' comment won't affect his organizing and fundraising activities...and I agree with NorthReport that, cynically, nobody really cares much (because nobody, in that neck-of-the woods, is shocked by patronage appointments that are rich by most people's standards).  Besides, after Gomery, it would be somewhat precious for the Liberals (his main opponent) to heckle him about his new, 'reduced' pay scale.  Senate reform is not the issue here, and calls to abolish it are seen for the empty rhetoric that it is.

As for Tom Flannagan, he's one to talk about putting his foot in his mouth...besides, his his main concern is probably the same as Kheiridden's: that Conservative inroads into Quebec would further moderate the Reform faction's influence.

All this sturm und drang is a good way to get talked about and noticed, especially in the English-language media, that Smith was once a part of, and which will, no doubt, play an key role in a predominantly Anglo riding.  We'll see how it goes...what are they saying on CJAD, and in The Gazette?  'Do the Conservatives have a realistic opportuntiy for an upset that would estabish their presence on the island of Montreal, and defy the conventional wisdom that they can't win in major urban ridings?'  Stay'chuned, as they say.

Rah-rah column in the Sun.