So Justin Trudeau and his Liberals are finished and done like dinner-who benefits?

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mark_alfred

Re:  post 49.  The Liberals themselves don't organize strategic voting, but I feel they do rely on getting soft-NDP and soft-Green votes from strategic voting (IE, a vote for the Green/NDP is a wasted vote in my riding, so I vote Liberal; of note is the fact that with PR, that would no longer be the case, which I feel is why the Libs oppose it).  They got a lot of youth votes last time, some of which were inspired by the Libs "last election under FPTP" pledge.  Here's a video from the Daughters of the Vote ceremony in which a couple of participants speak in favour of PR (note the spontaneous applause when he mentions being critical of him "at the ballot box")  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dj5I-1Z03aQ

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau will never allow the strategy of trying to get votes by pointing out how scary the Conservatives are. That is a loser's strategy. There is no proof that it has ever worked. The NDP tried to use it 2015 not the Liberals. It's old-fashioned. Trudeau already spoke out against it specifically because it's like saying you aren't offering anything good enough to earn votes. Nor does Trudeau need it. He will run on his track record. When called a liar he will say he's working on it, and it many cases that will be true. 

On electoral reform he did not say he would accept MMP.  The NDP wanted only MMP. The Liberals were partial to ranked ballots but not the NDP. The Liberals will say there was no consensus among parties and he will be right. There wasn't. There is no evidence that even one person voted for Trudeau rather than the NDP based on electoral reform. 

Singh has spoken about his support for PR and I believe he will make it a major election plank. That doesn't mean voters will respond to it. I think there will have to be multiple MMP provinces before it could be sold federally and I think it's easier to sell on a provincial level. The Alberta NDP hasn't even proposed PR so it can't be all that important to all NDP supporters. Quebec and Ontario are the two most populous provinces by far and neither seems particularly interested in PR.

I'd say swing voters are considerably less interested in PR.  Swing voters tune in at the last minute, check out the the leaders and pick the one they think will do the best job. Swing voters don't have any allegiance to a particular party or ideology so they don't care if seats are non-proportional. They voted for the person they wanted, win or lose, they will tune back in next election period. The grand majority of PR supporters are already NDP supporters. 

I keep coming across the narrative that a large number of voters sway between the Liberals and NDP and that those people are actually more progressive than the Liberals but they keep getting tricked into voting Liberal because the Liberals campaign left and govern right. 

As I believe Alan mentioned the Liberals are fiscally conservative but socially liberal and that mirrors the public well. It's why the Conservatives have been moving to the centre socially and the NDP has been moving to the centre fiscally. The Conservatives have no choice. People are getting far more live and let live. The Conservatives were right to fear teachers. Teachers don't get into politics in the classroom but they do teach human rights and ethics and about the environment etc. The more educated a person is the more likely they will vote NDP. 

Alan, I recall your saying just after Trudeau was elected that once people discovered the tax cuts were really going to the uppper-middle class they would turn on Trudeau. There wasn't even a ripple in his support. People are not paying that close attention. 

When it comes to electoral reform you are remembering the Liberal BS rather than what actually happened. There was far more agreement than you suggest:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/althia-raj/electoral-reform-maryam-monsef_b...

After showing no leadership a consensus agreement was starting to emerge at which point the Liberals killed it. It seems they were hoping it would blow up on its own but it didn't and the Liberals had to kill it.

What killed electoral reform was the Liberal realization that their own immediate selfish interests were elsewhere so screw the promise.

If the polls change a little more the Liberals might sing a different tune because they do not give a crap for democracy but they are prepared to endorse whatever electoral system promises them the most in the next election.

You cannot be too cynical about this process and most observers agree about why the Liberals did what they did.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

The Liberals themselves don't organize strategic voting, but I feel they do rely on getting soft-NDP and soft-Green votes from strategic voting (IE, a vote for the Green/NDP is a wasted vote in my riding, so I vote Liberal; of note is the fact that with PR, that would no longer be the case, which I feel is why the Libs oppose it).  They got a lot of youth votes last time, some of which were inspired by the Libs "last election under FPTP" pledge.  Here's a video from the Daughters of the Vote ceremony in which a couple of participants speak in favour of PR (note the spontaneous applause when he mentions being critical of him "at the ballot box")  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dj5I-1Z03aQ

They have in the past although more recently they like to do this at arm's length. I think it won't matter who raises it but NDP voters will tell them to get stuffed.

Sean in Ottawa

Cody87 wrote:

By the way, Trudeau can be branded a liar easily because of electoral reform. It doesn't matter if the issue is specifically important to people (although it's MOST important to the people Trudeau needs the MOST - progressive swing voters), because even if it isn't, there will always be that question about anything else Trudeau promises..."Yeah, he says he'll do x, but he reneged on ER so he's just like every other politician..."

I agree generally this is true -- progressive swing voters. The majority of those voters want to prevent Conservatives from false majorities more than they care about the vehicle. A minority of those swing voters are not for PR (Like Pondering perhaps) and so they are immune. The majority of those voters do care about PR and will remember this when asked to help the Liberals. Even the loss of half of them on this issue could ruin such an appeal.

You can't completely discount the tactic becuase if the Conservatives are particularly evil sounding, these voters may say that they have held their noses and voted Liberal before. This is a tougher gambit when the Liberals are in power as it is harder to dislike an opposition party than a government -- usually.

There is no question that this broken promise will come back to haunt the Liberals and that this will be the next time that they are desperate (close election). Forget about Trudeau wanting or not wanting this -- the leader has little control. If the election runs close this will come up whether the leader voices it or not. Next time it could turn into a loss instead of a gain.

Personally, I think Trump may have saved Trudeau on this for the next election. He has made right wing politics ugly enough that the Conservatives and their weak leader might not challenge close enough for the Liberals to be desperate in the next election but the one following this will come up if it does not come up then. Also things can happen and Trudeau is not a lock for the next election -- he just has a considerable advantage. He also has weaknesses that may or may not be big enough to risk his government.

mark_alfred

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think it won't matter who raises it [strategic voting] but NDP voters will tell them to get stuffed.

That's my hope.  Even if it's a riding where the NDP aren't expected to do well, hopefully there will be enough loyalty of those who desire an NDP win to vote with their heart.  The hope is to at least reduce them to a plurality, which would put Resolution # 5-06-18 into play.  That could create some interesting possibilities.

Cody87

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Personally, I think Trump may have saved Trudeau on this for the next election. He has made right wing politics ugly enough that the Conservatives and their weak leader might not challenge close enough for the Liberals to be desperate in the next election but the one following this will come up if it does not come up then. Also things can happen and Trudeau is not a lock for the next election -- he just has a considerable advantage. He also has weaknesses that may or may not be big enough to risk his government.

I agree with the rest of what you say, but I don't believe Trump will damage Canadian conservatives. Doug Ford, on the other hand...

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
When it comes to electoral reform you are remembering the Liberal BS rather than what actually happened.

I didn't say that's what happened. I said that is what they will say. I doubt many will pay any attention to the accusation or response. 

I felt a bit depressed watching the National. Trudeau has started the process for implementing Pharmacare by starting to talk to the provinces to put a plan together. By the beginning of the next election he will have a plan to offer. He is also starting gender based analysis of government spending. There will be shovels in the ground on infrastructure. But that isn't what depressed me. 

Canada 2020 is a Liberal think tank with a capital L. Approaching the 2015 election I wondered if basic income was going to be part of the platform because Canada 2020 had a paper on it and it was discussed during the leadership campaign. Neither that nor pharmacare showed up.  Recently Wynne started a large basic income study with a control group. 

So for this election Pharmacare is the hook. It won't matter that the NDP also have it on their platform even if it is better.  I wouldn't be surprised if Trudeau's numbers go up from the last election. 

What occurred to me is they may be planning Basic Income for the 2023 campaign. Trudeau could easily have 3 terms. 

Calling him a liar won't help at all and is far more likely to backfire. No one expects all campaign promises to be kept. What matters is the actual performance of the government.

Economy, tickety boo. NAFTA won't hurt him. Despite Trudeau's costume parade in India he will get A+ on foreign affairs. Canadians love that the world loves Trudeau. They won't thank anyone for trying to bring him down. He let down veterans but he is doing more. He hasn't ended all boil water advisories but he has ended 51. He is going to have a long list of accomplishments.

Even if specific people are angry, veterans for example, they will have to believe that they would be better off under a different leader. I don't think many people are going to think they would be better off under Scheer or Singh. 

I really really really want to be wrong this time. I think the only thing that could change it is if the public becomes more aware of inequality and its causes. 

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Re: Pharmacare; Ontario and Quebec are moving closer, so it could be possible that they will start bulk buying together, which would cover over 50% of the Canadian population. By the time the feds announce it as a policy, it will be a fait accompli in many places.

So that is going to be the easiest thing that Trudeau could do.

Rob8305

Wow!  It is worse than I ever could have imagined for us on the left, who are collateral damage of the disastrous Trudeau regime.  Those of you who gave me a WTF reaction to this post owe me an apology.  Forum came out today and showed that Scheer's Conservatives are now TWELVE (12) points ahead of the Trudeau Liberals! 12! That means Scheer is posed for the biggest majority in Canadian history.  He will surpass Mulroney's 1984 majority, which ironically another Trudeau was responsible for!  This is horrific.  I'm just in shock.  Forum's numbers are 46-34 Con.  Trudeau NEEDS TO RESIGN NOW to save progressive principles.  Also, Forum showed that the federal budget was massively unpopular.  Everything this clown does is massively unpopular.  He needs to GO STAT or else we'll be left reeling when Scheer gets his 250+ seats in 2019.

Scheer is incredibly dangerous.  Most Canadians will look at him and say "what a nice young guy" and vote for him even though he is to the RIGHT of Stephen Harper.

I am so angry right now.  Just livid.  I like what one poster said.  Trudeau needs to go and replace him with Freeland.  Like I said, the India trip has made Trudeau so toxic that it is not even remotely within the realm of possiblity for him to win another election in Canada.

He's in Kim Campbell, John Turner territory now.  The Liberals weren't even this far down during their crash after the income trust scandal in 2006, an election they lost.  Sure they were 12 points down or more in 2011, but they weren't the governing party then.  As an aside, Mulroney in '87-88 was only 6 points behind at worst in a campaign that he eventually won.  For the Liberals to be TWELVE down, means it's game over for them and for us.

And no, Allan, I didn't mean JT was fascist.  I meant Scheer is and he is now going to get the biggest majority in Canadian history!  Can you imagine Scheer yakking it up and becoming best buds with Trump.  Ugh...I need to puke!

cco

Pondering wrote:

Canadians love that the world loves Trudeau. They won't thank anyone for trying to bring him down.

A few years ago I was watching Alfred Apps on Power & Politics and coined the term "Alfred Apps syndrome" as I listened to him speak. It's a bit unfair to Mr. Apps, as it's something politicians across the ideological spectrum do, but he's just the first one I really noticed doing it. Apps syndrome, in my mind, is when a politician/pundit/partisan says "Canadians want/love/expect/are disappointed by..." and means "I want/love/expect/am disappointed by". I remember joking with my wife that Apps probably went home and had conversations with his wife along the lines of "Canadians walked the dog when they got home. Canadians are craving tacos, but should probably have salad instead, given what the doctor told Canadians about their cholesterol."

All of which is to say, Pondering, that you're mighty confident you have your finger on the pulse of the nation -- more so even than pollsters. Are Canadians telling you something they're not telling me?

WWWTT

Pondering wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

I don't know if these SNAFUs is India are going to do any long-term damage to Trudeau. Personally, though, I am speculating that at some point JT is going to have his "tainted tuna" moment, ie. it might not be the one thing that kills his popularity, but it will be the dividing point at which the honeymoon is definitely over, he no longer walks on water, etc. These "India" shennanigans sort of have the feel of that, but it's probably too early to tell the long-term repercussions. 

Yes over the long term things can make an impact as they add up. Trouble is that usually takes 8 to 12 years and sometimes 16.

The Indian government is playing it down because they issued Atwal a visa to enter the country.

ya I’m going to have a lot of fun with some of these comments in this thread

Rob8305

I give up.  I have the fortune of coming from a wealthy family and don't live in an area prone to the worst effects of climate change, so Scheer's policies won't affect me.  I feel bad for the poor souls who actually NEED a government that looks out for THEM that are going to be run over 20-24 months from now when Scheer gets his massive majority, eliminates the social safety net, rolls back gay marriage and abortion, brings back the death penalty, signs a pro-Trump NAFTA deal, and becomes Trump's best bud.  Not to mention getting Canada involved in foreign entanglements and making us a terrorist target by moving the embassy to Jersualem, which they recently announced.

Enjoy your new life Canadians.  You make me sick to my stomach!  I thought Americans were bad, but Canadians actually had Trump before Trump in Harper and now want to bring another Trump back in the form of Andrew Scheer.  So much for Canada being a center-left country.  We're just as GD fascist as America is!

Maybe, I should move to France, the last bastion of sanity left in this godforsaken world!

Really, nearly 50% of Canadians are posed to vote for Scheer and the Conservatives in an environment where the economy is not crashing, unemployment isn't sky-high, there are no massive government scandals? Really? Really? Really? Again, 50% is Mulroney 1984 territory after a Liberal government for a generation!

As an aside, looks like Trump is riding high in the US and I don't see this blue wave.  He's at 48% and 49% in Zogby and Rasmussen polls out today and the Economist/YouGov has a dead-heat 40-38 Dem lead over the Republicans in the 2018 generic congressional ballot, which given gerrymandering, means Trump is poised to gain seats in 2018, or at least not lose a significant amount.  Fascism is on the march globally! Am I living in 1933 or 2018????

WWWTT

Rob8305 wrote:

Wow!  It is worse than I ever could have imagined for us on the left, who are collateral damage of the disastrous Trudeau regime.  Those of you who gave me a WTF reaction to this post owe me an apology.  Forum came out today and showed that Scheer's Conservatives are now TWELVE (12) points ahead of the Trudeau Liberals! 12! That means Scheer is posed for the biggest majority in Canadian history.  He will surpass Mulroney's 1984 majority, which ironically another Trudeau was responsible for!  This is horrific.  I'm just in shock.  Forum's numbers are 46-34 Con.  Trudeau NEEDS TO RESIGN NOW to save progressive principles.  Also, Forum showed that the federal budget was massively unpopular.  Everything this clown does is massively unpopular.  He needs to GO STAT or else we'll be left reeling when Scheer gets his 250+ seats in 2019.

Scheer is incredibly dangerous.  Most Canadians will look at him and say "what a nice young guy" and vote for him even though he is to the RIGHT of Stephen Harper.

I am so angry right now.  Just livid.  I like what one poster said.  Trudeau needs to go and replace him with Freeland.  Like I said, the India trip has made Trudeau so toxic that it is not even remotely within the realm of possiblity for him to win another election in Canada.

He's in Kim Campbell, John Turner territory now.  The Liberals weren't even this far down during their crash after the income trust scandal in 2006, an election they lost.  Sure they were 12 points down or more in 2011, but they weren't the governing party then.  As an aside, Mulroney in '87-88 was only 6 points behind at worst in a campaign that he eventually won.  For the Liberals to be TWELVE down, means it's game over for them and for us.

And no, Allan, I didn't mean JT was fascist.  I meant Scheer is and he is now going to get the biggest majority in Canadian history!  Can you imagine Scheer yakking it up and becoming best buds with Trump.  Ugh...I need to puke!

like I said before Rob8305, great thread!

Kudos for you Rob, you single handily shot down every Closet supporter of Justin that thought you are a way out there wing nut for challenging Justin’s 40+ poll numbers. As far as Scheer goes, he’s an improvement over Justin. 

WWWTT

Maybe, I should move to France, the last bastion of sanity left in this godforsaken world!

lol! If you really believed in socialism you’d move to Portugal 

WWWTT

 I wouldn't be surprised if Trudeau's numbers go up from the last election. 

Ya ok if you say so?

WWWTT

Pondering wrote:

LOL, he must be joking or trolling Alan. We all know the Liberals are no where close to finished. 

or or or you lack insight. lol!

WWWTT

voice of the damned wrote:

The Bahamas put him in his coffin and India closed it. First one term government in over 100 years.  

"The Bahamas" was pretty much a dead issue by the time "India" came along, so I doubt that the latter is being propelled by momentum from the former. If this scandal turns out to have legs, I think it will very much be a stand-alone thing, though no less lethal for that. Justin Trudeau being successfully framed as BFFs with a guy once convicted of trying to assassinate an Indian politician is gonna make a free-room from the Aga Khan look like overdue library books.

That said, there seems to be some spin making the rounds(even in usually anti-Liberal media) portraying Atwal as just an obsessive political hanger-on, with a knack for talking his way onto guest lists and into photo-ops. If Trudeau can successfully portray himself as just another victim of a small-time operator, he might come out of this okay.

i think you’re confusing Justin with an intellect 

WWWTT

Pogo wrote:

Foreign policy never decides a Canadian election unless it involves our soldiers.

you sure about that?

WWWTT

R.E.Wood wrote:

Also, the effects of this disastrous India trip will send the Liberals reeling into a distant 3rd place in the polls.

Um, no... it won't. I doubt it will even make a dent. 

WWWTT

R.E.Wood wrote:

Also, the effects of this disastrous India trip will send the Liberals reeling into a distant 3rd place in the polls.

Um, no... it won't. I doubt it will even make a dent. 

Wow you have a lot of faith in Justin “train wreck” Trudeau

WWWTT

Pondering wrote:

Canadians of East Indian origin also make up the second largest non-European ethnic group in the country. In 2001, over 700,000 people of East Indian origin lived in Canada. That year, they made up 2.4% of the total Canadian population.Jul 16, 2007

I don't think anything happening in India will have any impact on Trudeau's chances in Canada. If anyone would be impacted by the division in India it would be the NDP with a Sikh leader but I doubt it will have a net negative effect for them either. 

Canadian Sikhs number roughly 468,670 people and account for roughly 1.4% of Canada's population. Canadian Sikhs are often credited for paving the path to Canada for all South Asian immigrants as well as for inadvertently creating the presence of Sikhism in the United States.

Indigenous peoples won't dictate the outcome of the election either although they are growing fast.

New data from the National Household Survey (NHS) show that 1,400,685 people had an Aboriginal identity in 2011, representing 4.3% of the total Canadian population. Aboriginal people accounted for 3.8% of the population enumerated in the 2006 Census, 3.3% in the 2001 Census and 2.8% in the 1996 Census.Sep 15, 2016

Economics will dictate the outcome of the next election just as it always does. 

heres a poorly thought out comment. If India has little impact on Canadian politics, then why are there so many politicians in Canada of Indian origin?

WWWTT

NDPP wrote:

Zoolander has no competition thus far. Certainly not the CONs and definitely not the No Difference Party. Dream on.,,

et tu NDPP 

Cody87

In the past year or so, Forum has put the Conservatives much higher than every other pollster. Either something is wrong with their methodology, or something is wrong with every other pollster. So I wouldn't freak out if Forum has cons up 12.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

Edit: Pretty interesting that Liberals were consistently up 20 points until November 2016, and pretty sharply dropped 10 points within a couple of weeks of the U.S. election.

WWWTT

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I predict no significant poll movement after the India trip.   This is another non-story blown up by con media, much like the "peoplekind" comment.     If the Liberals withstood the Aga Khan scandal, surely the India "snub" is a complete non-factor.

you overestimate the power of the corporate media

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Enjoy your new life Canadians.  You make me sick to my stomach!

Did an election happen and I missed it?

And how's your stomach?  You should maybe eat some unsalted crackers, and cut up bananas or something.  Keep up your strength for when there's actually an election and everyone lets you down.

WWWTT

Do you honestly think anyone cares about Electoral Reform? 

Ya well I guess when you live by the polls, you die by the polls. And that’s what we have here now going on this thread. A huge culling. 

WWWTT

Did an election happen and I missed it?

Yep! But for some reason you didn’t miss the re-election of Justin and his liberals? You want to explain that one?

WWWTT

DP

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Yep! But for some reason you didn’t miss the re-election of Justin and his liberals? You want to explain that one?

Was Justin Trudeau RE-ELECTED?

I'll be honest, WWWTT, as Gord is my witness, I thought he was only elected the first time, in 2015.

Tell me what I missed.  IS IT 2020 NOW????

WWWTT

Also I don't think this issue is one that will get attention now. But it can come up suddenly the first time the Liberals ask the NDP voters to help them stop conservatives. The NDP would be stupid not to make a deal of it then and the hypocrisy would be huge from Liberals.

Actually the trip to China was also a huge failure. Probably an even bigger failure!  The difference is that the disciplined Chinese wouldn’t allow Justin make an idiot of himself in their sovereign nation. In hindsight I suspect the seeds of Justin’s downfall were sown in his failure to succeed in China. Many big Canadian movers probably didn’t like hearing China call Canada an insignificant country after Justin’s failure visiting China

As for the stop conservatives campaign, I’d like to see a “stop the liberals campaign”. NDP needs to get on board pronto!

WWWTT

I'll be honest, WWWTT, as Gord is my witness, I thought he was only elected the first time, in 2015.

Tell me what I missed.  IS IT 2020 NOW????

thats funny! From your reaction, you sound like how I react after reading some of your comments.  This is one of those moments where we’re coming a full circle and the writing is on the wall. There are those who don’t want to believe and start spinning spinning and spinning frantically hoping to buy some time. A few days or week. Just enough time for another poll that is a return to a month ago. If/maybe/eventually/who knows/possibly if that poll comes out restoring Justin, then that’ll bolster the closet liberal propers confidence to make some long winded comments about how I’m wrong. Until then, you’ve got nothing 

WWWTT

Oh and by the way, next time you see Gord, tell him I said hi. 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
This is one of those moments where we’re coming a full circle and the writing is on the wall. There are those who don’t want to believe and start spinning spinning and spinning frantically hoping to buy some time. A few days or week. Just enough time for another poll that is a return to a month ago. If/maybe/eventually/who knows/possibly if that poll comes out restoring Justin, then that’ll bolster the closet liberal propers confidence to make some long winded comments about how I’m wrong. Until then, you’ve got nothing

I only asked if Trudeau had been re-elected like you said.

WWWTT

Sorry Mr Magoo no. But of course you know that. Just like everyone knew Justin was never re-elected PM. However like a lot of other poster, you were over confident in the corporate media’s circus freak side show.  

JKR

Gooba Gooba, Gooba Gobble, we accept you, we accept you, one of us, one of us!

josh

Rob8305 wrote:

I give up.  I have the fortune of coming from a wealthy family and don't live in an area prone to the worst effects of climate change, so Scheer's policies won't affect me.  I feel bad for the poor souls who actually NEED a government that looks out for THEM that are going to be run over 20-24 months from now when Scheer gets his massive majority, eliminates the social safety net, rolls back gay marriage and abortion, brings back the death penalty, signs a pro-Trump NAFTA deal, and becomes Trump's best bud.  Not to mention getting Canada involved in foreign entanglements and making us a terrorist target by moving the embassy to Jersualem, which they recently announced.

Enjoy your new life Canadians.  You make me sick to my stomach!  I thought Americans were bad, but Canadians actually had Trump before Trump in Harper and now want to bring another Trump back in the form of Andrew Scheer.  So much for Canada being a center-left country.  We're just as GD fascist as America is!

Maybe, I should move to France, the last bastion of sanity left in this godforsaken world!

Really, nearly 50% of Canadians are posed to vote for Scheer and the Conservatives in an environment where the economy is not crashing, unemployment isn't sky-high, there are no massive government scandals? Really? Really? Really? Again, 50% is Mulroney 1984 territory after a Liberal government for a generation!

As an aside, looks like Trump is riding high in the US and I don't see this blue wave.  He's at 48% and 49% in Zogby and Rasmussen polls out today and the Economist/YouGov has a dead-heat 40-38 Dem lead over the Republicans in the 2018 generic congressional ballot, which given gerrymandering, means Trump is poised to gain seats in 2018, or at least not lose a significant amount.  Fascism is on the march globally! Am I living in 1933 or 2018????

Guess you need to broaden your pollster horizon.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

As for Canada, Trudeau had a lot of negative press coverage lately.  Let’s see where things stand a few weeks from now.

josh

WWWTT wrote:

Oh and by the way, next time you see Gord, tell him I said hi. 

As Gord is my witness . . . .

Pondering

Rob8305 wrote:

He's in Kim Campbell, John Turner territory now.  The Liberals weren't even this far down during their crash after the income trust scandal in 2006, an election they lost.  Sure they were 12 points down or more in 2011, but they weren't the governing party then.  As an aside, Mulroney in '87-88 was only 6 points behind at worst in a campaign that he eventually won.  For the Liberals to be TWELVE down, means it's game over for them and for us.

There is no election right now so no need to panic. All three parties were in first place in 2015. 

Pondering

cco wrote:
 All of which is to say, Pondering, that you're mighty confident you have your finger on the pulse of the nation -- more so even than pollsters. Are Canadians telling you something they're not telling me?

No, I think it's pretty much common knowledge that Canadians like it when our prime minister appears to be held in high regard around the world. I think polls over the decades have indicated that. 

Even so, I still maintain the the primary issue is always the economy in every election. If more than one party is equal on the economy then a secondary issue will become the driver. 

Pondering

WWWTT wrote:

heres a poorly thought out comment. If India has little impact on Canadian politics, then why are there so many politicians in Canada of Indian origin?

There are Canadian politicians of many origins. We are a multicultural society. Perhaps Sikhs have a cultural influence that draws them into politics. I don't assume it has anything to do with India as a country. They aren't plants anymore than politicians of Irish or Italian descent. How many of those do we have?

Pondering

WWWTT wrote:

thats funny! From your reaction, you sound like how I react after reading some of your comments.  This is one of those moments where we’re coming a full circle and the writing is on the wall. There are those who don’t want to believe and start spinning spinning and spinning frantically hoping to buy some time. A few days or week. Just enough time for another poll that is a return to a month ago. If/maybe/eventually/who knows/possibly if that poll comes out restoring Justin, then that’ll bolster the closet liberal propers confidence to make some long winded comments about how I’m wrong. Until then, you’ve got nothing 

I would say the people spinning are the ones panicking on the basis of one pollster who is an outlier when we aren't even near the election date, no platforms have been put out, and you are predicting a massive Conservative majority. 

When I was supporting Trudeau and he was in first place I never predicted a majority for him although I thought it possible. 

I'm not sure if it was yours but the notion of replacing Trudeau with Freeland is bizarre. 

I cannot help but wonder what the motive is here. Which is your preferred party?

 

WWWTT

Pondering wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

heres a poorly thought out comment. If India has little impact on Canadian politics, then why are there so many politicians in Canada of Indian origin?

There are Canadian politicians of many origins. We are a multicultural society. Perhaps Sikhs have a cultural influence that draws them into politics. I don't assume it has anything to do with India as a country. They aren't plants anymore than politicians of Irish or Italian descent. How many of those do we have?

Don't know and don't care. Ireland and Italy are way down on the global power scale next to juggernauts like India and China. I'm actually replying to your original comment belittling India, or the possible impact of Canada/Indian relations on the Canadian voters. The example I provided indicates that there may be a strong relation there. Not to mention the fact that Justin went out of his way to dress up in Indian garb. If the India/Canada relations have no impact on Canadian voters, then why did Justin go through all the trouble that he did? Why did he even go to India?

WWWTT

 and you are predicting a massive Conservative majority. 

LOL! Here's a simple formula for Canadian politics 101

liberals=conservatives.

JKR

WWWTT wrote:

 and you are predicting a massive Conservative majority. 

LOL! Here's a simple formula for Canadian politics 101

liberals=conservatives.

I'm pretty sure that simple formula would have gotten a fail in the Canadian Politics 101 course I took a few decades ago. Back in the day political science courses taught that liberalism and conservatism were very distinct philosophies.

Hunky_Monkey

R.E.Wood wrote:

Also, the effects of this disastrous India trip will send the Liberals reeling into a distant 3rd place in the polls.

Um, no... it won't. I doubt it will even make a dent. 

It has made a dent.  We'll have to see if it's long-term.  Sometimes these dips happen over debacles like India.  Sometimes they happen when things start to add up.  I think in this case, his trip to India gave credibility to the line that he's a superficial narcissist without much substance.  But no way is he finished.

I'll still predict that we're looking at a Liberal MINORITY after the next election.  

WWWTT

JKR wrote:
WWWTT wrote:

 and you are predicting a massive Conservative majority. 

LOL! Here's a simple formula for Canadian politics 101

liberals=conservatives.

I'm pretty sure that simple formula would have gotten a fail in the Canadian Politics 101 course I took a few decades ago. Back in the day political science courses taught that liberalism and conservatism were very distinct philosophies.

According to your teacher/professor. I'm sure he/she is more than welcome to start an account here at rabble and defend their claim. This comment you made actually makes sense and can be discussed.

Want to explain this one below that you made earlier?

Gooba Gooba, Gooba Gobble, we accept you, we accept you, one of us, one of us!

R.E.Wood

WWWTT wrote:

As far as Scheer goes, he’s an improvement over Justin. 

If you seriously believe that Scheer (anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti-abortion, etc, etc...) is "an improvement" over Trudeau you're either crazy, a so-con in disguise playing the part of a good socialist on Rabble, or so blinded by your hatred of Justin and all-things Liberal that you can't see reality. I have no love for the Liberals and Trudeau, but can clearly say that No, Scheer would NOT be an improvement! 

WWWTT

LOL! That's a funny comment R.E.Wood! Obviousy, people in Canada polled believe that Scheer would be an improvement, based on the events that transpired. Now as far as things like gay marriage, immigration religion etc etc, they have not not come into the spotlight recently and I'm sure many Canadians are not basing this recent poll with these issues in mind. I'm sure Scheer and the rest of the conservatives are fully aware of these issues. Did Harper recind gay marriage after he got a majority? I know the liberals under Cretein didn't want anything to do with allowing gay marriage durring the 1990's! In fact, it wasn't until public opinion towards alternative lifestyles changed, provincial challenges and various court rulings forced the hand of the government at the time to reconsider their approach.

And as far as immigration goes, you've got some real revisionalist history issues going on. I pasted the below from the link at the bottom

Under Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, the numbers of immigrants increased dramatically. In 1986, less than 100,000 newcomers were welcomed; in 1993, 256,641 were. Tweaks were made to the points system as well, as the number of applications began to exceed the government’s ability to process them. The system gave out points for things like high levels of education, without really linking it back to labour market demand, leading to the ensuing dilemma of doctors driving taxis that the system has been dealing with for decades. The 1980s also saw the introduction of the business class of immigration.

In 1994, the Jean Chrétien Liberals stressed the importance of self-sufficient immigrants, focusing on the skilled worker category rather than family or humanitarian. In 1995, the government introduced the hefty $975 Right of Landing Fee.

http://canadianimmigrant.ca/immigrate/the-politics-of-immigration-a-brie...

WWWTT

Should also point out R.E.Wood that liberal supporters always play this same game you’re so eager to play right now. Demonizing the conservatives to scare people into supporting the liberals. This tactic is is getting real old and lame. This is a waste of time tactic and shows how desperate the liberal supporters are. 

JKR

WWWTT wrote:

JKR wrote:
WWWTT wrote:

 and you are predicting a massive Conservative majority. 

LOL! Here's a simple formula for Canadian politics 101

liberals=conservatives.

I'm pretty sure that simple formula would have gotten a fail in the Canadian Politics 101 course I took a few decades ago. Back in the day political science courses taught that liberalism and conservatism were very distinct philosophies.

According to your teacher/professor. I'm sure he/she is more than welcome to start an account here at rabble and defend their claim. This comment you made actually makes sense and can be discussed.

Want to explain this one below that you made earlier?

Gooba Gooba, Gooba Gobble, we accept you, we accept you, one of us, one of us!

 

You can pick up very many first year political science text books that describe the political philosophies of conservatism and liberalism.

The Gooba Gabba quote is from the 1932 movie Freaks.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freaks

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W99n083E0IA

I find the pejorative use of the term "freaks" to be distasteful.

 

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