So Lib spin is bunk, what IS the lay of federal politics?

The Liberals have done an incredible amount of spinning in the last two week leading up to their Vancouver convention. More than I have ever seen for a story/narrative/issue that is below the radar for everyone except political junkies. They are really pouring it on for this.

A great deal of it is building a fictional narrative to replace the one that is or otherwise would be out there. The short list of spin priority tems includes things like party fundraising that never make the news. That list would include party fundraising has come roaring back [instead of that they have regained the ability to not fall further behind financialy], that they are debt-free [not at all], cheerleading of major internal party organizational restructuring [that is still totally stalled], and the fabrication of a narrative that the NDP is in trouble and ready to prop up Harper to stave off an election [to displace the reality that does not fit the triumphalist March of Iggy, that the Liberals are continuing and will continue indefinitely to vote with the government on confidence votes].

I am impressed at the same time as appalled, seeing what the Liberal spinmeisters get away with. This isn't new, but let alone they have not been successful for some time, they really are outdoing themselves this time.

Given that it is not aimed at the general public or swing voters, going to such lengths to build a many faceted counter-reality, demonstrates two things. One is how badly the Liberals want to do this. And the second is just how willfully gullible is the Ottawa press corps. They eagerly lap it up, stating as reality something that one of their colleagues just made up yesterday. That some of them are Liberals does not really account for that. Others just have such an animus for the NDP [or the Conservatives in cases where the counter-reality narrative reaches to them], and are such suckers for someone like Iggnatief, that they are happy to recirculate or even further embelish the pap of the day.

But I'm tired of arguing with this narrative. And trying to correct the part of the narrative made up about the NDP is especially pointless. That comes and goes in the media. And a direct counter-attack is fruitless. In fact, if the NDP tried to directly contradict it would only fan the flames. When it is at its worst they just have to wait till it passes, and do what they can to shift the substance. But even on a discussion borad, and even if you eschew whining about the way the media is, trying to bring facts into the counter-reality is really pointless.

So thats my attempt to put that to bed and move on to a discussion about what is really going on- what do people see for the basic dynamics between the parties in the months ahead and on to the next election... a key part of the analysis being that however much people subscribe to times the election will or will not be, no one knows, and that uncertainty is itself a big part of the strategic dynamic.

I'd like to kick it off using todays column by James Travers- who however much he may be a Liberal- I think is not one to simply follow and regurgitate, or launch, the pap of the day.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/627870

I think Travers overplays all of this. I'm not so sure the Cons are actively cozying up as it is Duceppe is presenting possibilities he knows might have traction with Harper. That amounts to the same thing even if it is overstated.

I don't think there is any evidence that the NDP is reluctant to face the Liberals, at all. But so what. The Liberals have the initiative now, there is nothing at least for the moment for the NDP to do. IF that continues, the NDP will have something to worry about. For the time being, having no obvious options is issue enough.

And bottom line: all the Cons need is the Bloc to stop a confidence vote going against them.

The Liberals are going to give Harper a pass tthis month and the next 'report card' / economic update confidence vote coming in June. Leaving aside the bluster covering that up- they have every reason to do it, its not necessarily a sign of strategic weakness that they will let those votes go by.

Fall is a different story. The Liberals might still want to duck, but Harper cannot plan on that. Up until very recently he could still push on the Liberals with inpugnity. Unless in the unlikely even the support turns the governments way pretty substantialy, he could lose government after the next elections. [Probaby not immediately after, but in the likely event he loses some seats, when the first Throne Speech vote comes.]

Since Harper can't count on the Liberals ducking in the Fall, the obvious Plan B is the Bloc. Travers overates how concerned the Bloc are about the Liberals... but IF they remain at all strong, Duceppe isn't going to want to let them consolidate some substantial seat gains, even if the Bloc is not at risk of losing any or many net. In other words, even the Liberals having a prospect of gaining 5 or 6 seats, and even the BQ being able to expect to get that many back from the Cons... the Liberals even getting partially re-established may be enough to make the Bloc not want an election.

And for the Bloc, a deal is easy. They are unlikely to have to worry for the near enough future about a resurgence of Cons fortunes in Quebec, and as long as they get something fro Quebec, it doesn't matter what devil of the day they cut a deal with. [Remember, they survived perfectly well craven caving to Harper in 2006 and 2007 without getting a thing in return.]

With the multi-facted balance of forces we are looking at now I can see this going on indefinitely- the Fall and maybe beyond. Where the Bloc sits in the cat birds seat waiting for the right moment to pull the plug.

That right moment being the best combination they think they are going to get of Cons and Liberals not doing as well as they might later. As long as the Cons stay weak, the it will be about the Liberals. Not really fear of the Liberals- just the prudence of at least delaying as long as possible their rise from the grave in Quebec.

On the other hand, if the Cons look to have prspects of reviving their fortunes, they may decide they can live with modest gains for the Liberals, and pull the plug.

and the fabrication of a narrative that the NDP is in trouble

Which pours light under the damp rock of Chantal Hebert-Colmes series of columns in the past week.

Don't forget there was a leadership contest in Ontario too.  That would have sucked up cash, and energy from fundraising.  I really don't think those NDP numbers are too worrisome.  Not that the usual suspects won't make up an entrie narrative out of it.

Thge Liberals are currently spinning their continued support for Harper harder than ever I think.

I detail the latest endeavour, which is a win win for corporate interests,  destroy EI while, covering their asses  in supporting Harper over here.