Things look bad, very bad, for the Liberals in Canada's latest polling thread
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Comments
Every day it seems we get more bad news for the Liberals
Follow the leader? Not these Liberals
Michael Ignatieff needs to get a grip – on his caucus, on his party and on his staff. Too many of his Liberals are going rogue.
Eight of his MPs voted with the Tories this week to kill the long-gun registry. The Chrétien Liberals created the registry, spilling political blood to frame it into law. Privately, in the closed-door caucus meeting on Wednesday, Mr. Ignatieff urged his MPs to stand together and vote against the government. His pleas fell on deaf ears. However, Mr. Ignatieff reminded reporters that he was allowing his MPs to vote freely, and that it was a private member’s bill, not government legislation.
This week, too, Liberal president Alf Apps sent a note to colleagues and party supporters comparing the H1N1 vaccine crisis to the Bush government’s handling of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. More than a few Liberals were upset with the Apps hyperbole.
Then, Mr. Ignatieff’s hand-picked national party director, Rocco Rossi, was on Twitter, joking about swine flu and party patronage, saying “pork before swine.” A veteran Tory strategist called the Rossi joke “offensive.” Mr. Ignatieff didn’t offer any comment on the Apps/Rossi controversies.
It doesn’t end there: Ignatieff senior staffer Mark Sakamoto appeared on national television as an “ordinary citizen” complaining about the supply of the H1N1 vaccine. His cover was blown; the incident was embarrassing.
Mr. Sakamoto denied he was a plant. As parents of a newborn, he and his wife are on the priority list for the vaccine, and were waiting in line at a clinic when the interviewer approached. However, some believe the Ignatieff adviser should have known better.
Clearly, this behaviour is unnerving the Grits, with one Liberal describing the unwinding of the Ignatieff Liberals as being of “biblical proportions.”
Travers: Liberals squander big chance
Michael Ignatieff has good reason to fear the federal long-gun registry. Every time Conservatives lock and load, Liberals shoot themselves in the foot.
It has been that way since Jean Chrétien responded to the murders of 14 women at Montreal's École Polytechnique and one woman at Toronto's Just Desserts cafe.
It got worse this week when Ignatieff and his who-are-we-now party blew off not one but two toes.
Opposition leaders and followers need two skills. Not necessarily in this order, they must be adept at providing policy alternatives and adroit at executing political strategy.
Tested against the current and smoothly advancing Conservative plan to kill the registry, Liberals, as they now subsist here, are incompetent at one and inept at the other.
Two opportunities came wrapped in the Conservative private member's bill that leapt over a major Commons hurdle Wednesday and is now pushing Canada back toward a past that felt more dangerous and was statistically less safe. If they had started sooner and thought harder, Liberals could have offered a more creative solution than the simplistic ruling party plan to scrap the registry. Or they could have turned a Conservative wedge issue to Liberal advantage by taking a principled position appealing to the 80 per cent of us living in cities.
Presented with that target-rich environment, Liberals fired blanks. Instead of making a firm proposal to bridge the gap between urban and rural realities and sensibilities, Ignatieff lamely mused about decriminalizing the registry, a solution Liberals rejected years ago. Instead of making Conservatives, a law-and-order and family values party, pay the highest possible political price for being offside with police chiefs and women worried about domestic violence, Liberals, along with the NDP, issued a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Dumb and dumber, those two mistakes will now haunt Ignatieff as well as Jack Layton. Groups that support gun control but dozed through this week's first round are waking and will be out in clamorous force when the bill, passed only in principle this week, moves to committee for closer scrutiny.
Conservatives will again take full advantage of that hubbub to solidify their core constituency and raise more funds from those who equate the freedom to own an unregistered long gun with liberty.
Liberals, desperate as always to be all things to all voters,,, will be embarrassed, as well as divided, by the second, much louder, sound wave.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/722548--travers-liberals-squander-big-chance?bn=1
Who cares?
It's flu season in Canada.
People have gotten sick from the flu before H1N1, and people will still get sick from the flu after H1N1. All this hype is nonsense.
Crisis? What crisis? Flu-shot experience was efficient, polite
Canadians are used to standing in line and it took only 45 minutes
The Libs win Vancouver Centre in spite of Hedy Fry. She's not very popular in many parts of that riding. If she was replaced I'd bet that the Libs would increase their vote in Van Centre. The Cons are too right wing for the old urban 'progressive conservative' who vote Lib... and then there is the typical provincial NDP/federal Lib voter in that riding.
Van Centre was the last Lib bastion west of the Ontario border, IIRC, during the 1979 federal election when Art Phillips retained it for the Libs. Not even he was able to hold the seat during the 'hate-on' for Trudeau during the 1980 federal election.
One other point to note about Van Centre - provincially half of the riding is Van False-Creek and it was the 3rd most right-wing riding (out of 12 in the City of Vancouver) in 2009 due to the condo owner/occupiers with the provincial Libs retaining 57% to 27% for the NDP. And that trend will continue with the planned massive North East False Creek development and the South East False Creek developments (inclusive of the $million$ condos in the Olympic Village).
The NDP had their best chance in 1988 with Joanna den Hertog as our candidate and ohhhh it was so close. And that was when there were no owner/occupier condo towers as we are facing today.
Every day it seems we get more bad news for the Liberals
Follow the leader? Not these Liberals
Michael Ignatieff needs to get a grip – on his caucus, on his party and on his staff. Too many of his Liberals are going rogue.
[...]
From the link:
“It is very sad and unfortunate that the Ignatieff Liberals are desperately attempting to politicize the H1N1 preparedness efforts of the federal and provincial governments,” the PMO said in its “Alert” response to the Sakamoto television appearance. And in Question Period this week, Tory cabinet ministers repeated that same “politicization” refrain.
The Tories are now calling them the "Ignatieff Liberals"? This is the first time I've noticed them doing this. I guess Iggy's personal numbers are now that bad.
Can anyone remember if it was ever the "Dion Liberals"?
Yes it was--
The Cons always go personal and nasty-
I don't like Ignatief nor the Liberals but cannot celebrate the continued personal, policy free nastiness the Cons like to drive our system in. Beyond the contemporary politics they sicken the public that wants less and less to do with the entire political democratic system. This only serves to discourage more people from the idea that politics can make a difference and increases the chance that we will continue on this path towards reduced democracy in Canada.
I'd like to argue with Ignatief on policy but this is not a climate where this is possible. We all lose.
Both the Liberals and the Cons have been anti-democratic for a long time and this is only one more step on that road. I am fine when either the Liberals or Cons take a hit except where the damage to the engagement of people in what passes for a democracy becomes further weakened.
Anyone wanna speculate on whether the byelections might spark a bump in national NDP numbers? I mean, it's an "NDP-potential" perfect storm: one already-held seat, one seat with a provincial gov't honeymoon effect, one that's already left-leaning Bloc with a right-leaning Bloc candidate, one where the symbolic wind out of the Grit sails with the nominal non-Bloc option being Tory...a perfect storm, even if they only win the one they already hold...
Tories position by-elections as test of Ignatieff
None of the ridings has ever been prime Liberal turf. But rarely has the once-mighty, self-described natural governing party seemed so thoroughly out of contention.
“If you're the official Opposition, I think you'd be expected to do well in by-elections in the midst of a global economic downturn,” Conservative party spokesman Fred DeLorey said Sunday.
“I think it says something about leadership.”
Mr. DeLorey said the Tories expect to be shut out themselves, pointing out that by-elections rarely reward the governing party. But that message is almost certainly more an exercise in lowering expectations than a realistic prediction.
The Tories are well-positioned to win one contest and come close in two others. Ditto for the NDP.
For their part, New Democrats are hoping the by-elections will produce a new political dynamic in Quebec in which the NDP are seen as the federalist alternative to the separatist Bloc on the island of Montreal and the Tories are seen as the alternative outside Montreal. Under this scenario, the Liberals would be squeezed out entirely.
“We used to finish behind the Marijuana Party [in Quebec],” NDP Leader Jack Layton noted last week.
“But we're now real players, so much so the Bloc's even attacking us. Holy mackerel. We must be doing something right.”
Even the news out here this morning, indicated that the Liberals were toast in all 4 by-elections, and indeed the NDP was looking good in 3 out of the 4.
almost scarey that......
Toast? None of the seats are Liberal and the Liberals were not expected to win any of them.
Most people won't know that, however, so it's going to look bad on the Liberals anyway.
3 Provinces, 4 By Elections and No Prospects. Not being expected to win, and finishing in 3rd or 4th in every single By Election looks bad, because it is bad.
If the LPC finish ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia at least 2nd, it would be a positive.
If the LPC finish 2nd in Quebec, it would be positive
If the LPC finish 2nd in BC, it would be positive
If the LPC could win or finish 2nd in any of these ridings it would be positive.
This By Election round could be very very very bad news for the Party that threatened to take down the government.
Most of the media outlets are portraying these by-elections as not being a big deal for the Liberals since they aren't expected to win any of them.
Actually all of the media accounts I have seen have been suggesting far more that the Liberals were no big deal in these by-elections. That is a significantly different story-line
He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.
If that's the best you can do, i would say that you are the one with no ideas and that you are going no where.
ok, name one radical or smart idea of Jack's
Anyone?
Hello?
[crickets chirping, a lonely tumbleweed rolls through the centre of town]
people like Forrest Gump too. Doesnt mean they'll vote for him.
That silence you hear, Howard, is the serious NDP navel gazers ignoring you. The NDP had a great policy in their inheritance tax proposal complete with a $1 million exemption, which would unencumber ~90% of beneficiaries. Sadly, they didn't present it well and then tucked tail and ran for cover when the anticipated Lib/Con fearmongering began.
That said, Howard, unless you have something less inflamatory and more interesting to say, I'm going to ignore you too.
Actually all of the media accounts I have seen have been suggesting far more that the Liberals were no big deal in these by-elections. That is a significantly different story-line
Stockholm explained the situation well on the other thread. He did a better job of summarzing it than me. You might want to check his analysis out. Basically, expectations are low for the Liberals and so they aren't expected to win anything and it won't be a big deal.
However, I would say that if the Liberal popular vote is very low, that would be somewhat pathetic.
To expand upon BA's point, if the Liberal Party currently had any semblance of being a serious national political party, the expectations for their performance wouldn't have been so ridiculously low.
Can the NDP expect to be viewed as serious national party when it still badly trails the Liberals at a time when the Liberals are doing very poorly?
All those terrible rumours are untrue. Ther Liberals actually did beat the Greens. 
New Westminster-Coquitlam By-Election Results Nov 9/09
NDP - 49.6%
Cons - 35.8%
Libs - 10.3%
Grn - 4.3%
Debater, why would you waste your time defending the Ignasty Liberals on a progressive website? Totally incompetent and a rightwing piece of shit, the sooner Iggy goes back to Harvard the better for our country and for your party.
Oh my!
By-Election Results November 9, 2009
New Westminster-Coquitlam
NDP 49.6%, 1st
Cons - 35.8%, 2nd
Libs - 10.3%, 3rd
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Cons - 45.8%%, 1st
NDP - 25.7%, 2nd
Libs - 21.3%, 3rd
Hochelaga
BQ - 51.2%, 1st
NPD - 19.5%, 2nd
Libs - 14.3%, 3rd
Cons - 10.1%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
Cons - 42.7%
BQ - 37.7%, 2nd
Libs - 13.2%, 3rd
NPD - 4.8%, 4th
McKenna waiting in the wings. He couldn't do worse than Ignatieff could he.
Oops, that's what they were saying about Ignatieff in relation to Dion.
Most folks think the right-wing Ignatieff should quit, but is another right-winger like McKenna the one to replace him.
McKenna keeps door ajar
http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/front/article/851221
As at 12:46 am on November 10th:
33,608 Canadians voted Tory in these by-elections, which was 35.72 per cent of the total vote cast.
22,783 Canadians voted New Democrat, 24.22 per cent of the total.
19,709 Canadians (perhaps we should say, Quebeckers) voted Bloc, 20.95 per cent of the total.
And 13,914 Canadians voted Liberal, 14.79 per cent of the total.
Ergo, in terms of the absolute national poll, Mr. Harper got in the range of what he had in the 2008 election. Mr. Layton is a solid second, improving nicely. And Mr. Ignatieff led his party to fourth place in terms of total vote, behind the Bloc Québécois.
Libs will have to 'remake Ignatieff' to poach NDP's support: pollster Pollster Nik Nanos says the Liberals should try to appeal to NDP supporters, but it will be politically challenging.
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/page/view/ignatieff_remake-11-9-2009
All those terrible rumours are untrue. Ther Liberals actually did beat the Greens.
New Westminster-Coquitlam By-Election Results Nov 9/09
NDP - 49.6%
Cons - 35.8%
Libs - 10.3%
Grn - 4.3%
What rumours? Wasthe Green Party expected to do well? It's certainly not good for Elizabeth May that the Liberals beat her by more than a 2:1 margin in B.C. considering how poorly the Liberals are doing in the province these days.
It's nice to see that the Liberals are taking solace at having beaten the Green Party.
It's nice to see that the Liberals are taking solace at having beaten the Green Party.
Popular opinion holds that the Cons need the NDP to maintain ~18% support in order to bleed enough Lib votes to ensure a Con majority. With the Liberal meltdown, I wonder if the Con strategy will be different to forestall the NDP gaining Official Opposition status at the expense of the Liberals.
A Con majority with an NDP O.O. will give the socialist viewpoint direct exposure against Conservative policies rather than having them co-opted by both the Libs and Cons. It will be a great opportunity to reach the voter, building trust without the responsibility of governing and a logical steppingstone to winning the next election.
A Conservative victory in the next election may be the NDP's greatest opportunity.
Oh my goodness scott splurted coffee all over when i read that...
ineresting breakdown about how many voters voted for whom in total...thanks for posting it NR.
surely the Liberals really are not planning on scuttling Iffy, and slapping McKenna in there are they?
the optics of that would be even worse than keeping him
Debater, why would you waste your time defending the Ignasty Liberals on a progressive website? Totally incompetent and a rightwing piece of shit, the sooner Iggy goes back to Harvard the better for our country and for your party.
I don't like Ignatieff actually - I've never been a fan. Ignatieff probably does belong back at Harvard. And the Liberals are not "my party". I don't have an allegiance to a political party right now since I am still in limbo. I'm just trying to provide some realism into some of the discussions going on here.
I would be more prepared to give the Liberals a pass on these by-elections, none of which were in natural seats for them, if they had been so charitable to the NDP in the March 2008 by-elections, which were held in some of the wealthiest ridings in the country. But, no, they couldn't miss a chance to spin and crow about the NDP's performance back then. So, no quarter given now, not from me.
The issue for the Liberals is not whether they could have been expected to do well so much, but what could they do with the opening. Test-run their new Liberalist software, train volunteers, test out new messages or strategies ... just a few ideas. But they seemed completely uninterested or unwilling to do even that. Big missed opportunity. And not only according to me.
I listened to Jim Burrows this morning, the Liberal candidate in CCMV. He wasn't complaining. Nonetheless, a translation of one stream of his remarks on their campaign: they were left to their own devices to "build an organization".
If your party supports you even minimaly, you aren't building an organization during a campaign.
If anyone wants to beat me to it- pull today's Herald cartoon on Iggy and post it here. Its choice.
Sean, you can look today here. But it's copyrighted and can't be downloaded. And will probably be replaced tomorrow.
Thanks and we can still preserve a description -- that's allowed--
In the cartoon Iggy is in the trees saying when he was elected the Liberals were going places. In the last fram he is asking they send a search party.
The artist is Bruce MacKinnon.
Yeah, I recall them gloating about how the NDP was screwed because they came in fourth in Willowdale!
Though I kind of wonder what might have happened had one of the present byelections been in a "no hope" Ontario seat like Willowdale--or conversely, if the poor Green vs NDP numbers in the present byelections have an affect on national numbers...
I think it won't be long before the national pollsters decide that the Green numbers in the polls overstate their actual vote, and conclude that prompting with the Green Party name is skewing those results. I think the national media has already concluded that the Greens' moment has passed and have just stopped covering them.
That's such a wonderful cartoon! "When I became Liberal leader we were going places. Please send a search party." In my younger days I would have said it was great agitprop. Today I just can't stop laughing. I hope the cartoonist doesn't get into trouble.
why?
I think because the Greens never meet those poll numbers in elections, because Elizabeth May's media relations have been unprofessional, and because she's now running in her third riding and they don't believe she can win that one either, she seems to have lost credibility, and they've decided that the rejection of the Green Shift also constituted a rejection of the Green Party's platform.
Ken, Jim is spinning you about the organization thing. I know this because I am in NS in one of the few Liberal provincial riddings and there wasn;t a constituency worker to be found the first two weeks of the campaign in this ridding. They were all up in Turo working for Jim, Iggy came down twice. What happen was they saw they were going to lose and as soon the leader cut and ran the rest of them did too. Meaning Jim had to build a team the last two weeks because all of his support left a sinking ship scared they would be linked to a big loss. It was sad in a way.
most certainly OO, I can agree with all that, and quite the fete really...she destroyed 2 parties in one go..... ;)
Sprinkling in a couple workers on the NSLP's dime does not count as supporting a campaign- even if they had been in Burrows campaign the whole time. [Not to mention that there is only one in your consituency, and being away more than a week would get her or him in hot water.] And the Leader would show up a couple times even if they never planned to really support the campaign- he just has to, not to mention making sure they don't put in a disastrously embarrasing showing.
And I knew from early in the campaign there was no support there- just a good showing considering by a brave group of folks who weren't going anywhere.
Bruce MacKinnon has to be the best cartoonist when it comes to describing a particular moment in time.
If we could all pass this classic piece of commentary onto as many Canadians as possible, maybe then they would start waking up and realize just how lost Iggy really is!
The new EKOS is out late tonight (PDF). The headline numbers are:
National federal vote intention:
¤ 36.6% CPC
¤ 26.6% LPC
¤ 16.8% NDP
¤ 11.2% Green
¤ 8.8% BQ
Decided voters; most recent data point Nov. 4-10 (n=2885); undecided rate of 16.6%
I think we have reached the conclusion that those Green Party numbers are inflated based on prompting by the polling firms. Which probably makes this a bit closer of a 3-way race that it looks. Right now there's a 10-pt gap between first and second, and between second and third.
The Quebec numbers are:
¤ 35.6% BQ
¤ 21.7% CPC
¤ 21.3% LPC
¤ 10.7% NDP
¤ 10.6% Green
Again, when the rubber hits the road, no way those Green numbers stand up.
Interesting commentary from the pollster.
Although the Liberals might like to think that the H1N1 pandemic will turn into Stephen Harper’s “hurricane Katrina,” as a recent email from the party’s president put it, there is no sign that this is happening, and even less sign that the issue is benefitting the Liberals.
The Conservatives have edged down somewhat from their October peak, in the aftermath of Liberal election threats, but they are still about where they were in the 2008 election. The Liberals, meanwhile, after having enjoyed a relatively stronger spring and summer, are back down where they were in the 2008 election – their worst-ever in history.
“The parties now appear to be fairly ‘locked in’ to support levels consistent with the last election. There does not appear to be anything in the handling of the H1N1 crisis which is like to disrupt that pattern. What must be most worrisome for the Liberals is that while the Conservatives have slipped somewhat in the last month, none of that shift has accrued to them,” said Graves. “If anyone has been the beneficiary, it may be the NDP, which has recovered somewhat from the political crisis of the early fall, and is now back near the top of its normal range.”
H1N1 FEARS “EXAGGERATED” SAY MANY CANADIANS
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full-report-november-12.pdf
Canada
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc
2008 Election / 37.7% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10% / Cons surpassed Libs by 12%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.6% / 26.6% / 16.8% / Cons lead Libs by 10%
Nov 5 / EKOS / 37.4% / 26.8% / 16.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%
Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%
Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5%
Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16%
Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3%
Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15%
Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13%
Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7% / 15.2%
Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%
BC
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9% / 25%
Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24%
Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%
Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%
Sask/Man
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
Nov 11 / EKOS / 44.2% / 28.8% / 16.3%
Ontario
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 39.2% / 33.8% / 15.5%
Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%
Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP
2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 35.6% / 21.3% / 21.7% / 10.7%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15%
Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%
Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%
AC
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election /
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.5% / 32.8% / 25.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%
Leadership
Best PM
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign
Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads
The amount of bad news that is hitting the airwaves each day now for the Liberals is unlike anything I have ever seen before I began following politics. It's actually quite staggering with even right-wing Liberals like McKenna, by-the-way is he their next saviour, saying they will not be forming the government any time soon. Read: the Liberals are in major meltdown and Harper is mopping the floor with them.
Maybe we’ll have have an election in… 2011
Harper acts as if he’ll be around for a while; the Liberals hope the hard choices ahead will grind him down
“I don’t think 2011 should be out of the question,” a Liberal MP told me, leaning in conspiratorially.
For what? A summer full of sunshine? A return to three-button jackets? “For an election,” the MP said.
This guy’s thinking, which I’ve since learned is shared by at least a few other veteran Liberals in Ottawa, is as follows. The polls don’t favour Michael Ignatieff right now, and haven’t since he announced in September he would work to bring down the Harper government at the first chance. Indeed the polls have been so stinkeroo for the Liberals that Ignatieff has had to un-announce his September announcement. Now he’s in no hurry to replace the Harper government. Some Liberals suspect Ignatieff replaced his inexperienced, poorly connected chief of staff, Ian Davey, with the wily Chrétien-era fixer Peter Donolo because Davey didn’t foresee the popular backlash against Ignatieff’s “Mr. Harper, your time is up” announcement.
Well then. If there’s no election this autumn, will there be one in the spring? Perhaps not: the Vancouver/Whistler Olympics are in February, and for some reason an ironclad conventional wisdom has sprung up that elections must not be held near an Olympics. A federal budget will soon follow the Olympics. A budget gives the Harper Conservatives a chance to spend some $230 billion. It’s not easy to make enemies while spending $230 billion. Suddenly it’s summer, when we mustn’t have an election, followed by autumn when we mustn’t have an election, I forget why not. This is what we do in Ottawa these days: stare at the calendar, shaking our heads.
Anyway, by late 2010, the recession will be well and truly over, and (my Liberal interlocutor reasoned) there’ll be no more of this stimulus spending. Instead, the government, whoever forms it, will be belt-tightening to get out of deficits. Since belt-tightening is never pleasant or popular, Liberals are thinking it might as well be Harper who is stuck with doing it. Give the nasty work a little time to grind Harper down, and suddenly it’s 2011.
Let’s go with this theory a bit and see where it leads us. For one thing, Harper would by 2011 have passed Alexander Mackenzie, Lester Pearson and—aim high—maybe even R.B. Bennett in longevity, which would make him Canada’s 10th longest-serving prime minister. (He’d need almost another year after that to catch up to John Diefenbaker.) What’s perhaps more significant is that the very atmosphere in the capital would change, and not too soon either. Instead of careening from one crisis of parliamentary confidence to the next, the government and its opponents might finally have the luxury to take the longish view. This could come in handy for all of them. Whether in government or opposition, they all have work they’ve been postponing because they weren’t sure they’d have the time to do it.
All of this seems already to have occurred to Harper. Lately he’s started taking steps that assume he’ll be around for a while. His trips to India and China. His Supreme Court reference on Ottawa’s right to establish a national securities regulator. His judicial inquiry into the collapse of the Pacific salmon fishery. The latter two, especially, will take more than a year to play out. Harper appears to be betting he’ll still be Prime Minister when the time comes to act on their conclusions. It’s been so long since we had a government that thought about the long term that the very prospect is bracing and a bit disorienting. But good for him; even if he’s wrong in his calculations, Harper is beginning work that will serve his successor well.
Michael Ignatieff, meanwhile, gets to do the work that will improve his chances of being Harper’s successor. He, too, has already begun. He made do for nearly a year with temporary help to run the Office of the Leader of the Opposition. Now Donolo can give the place structure and order, really for the first time since 2006. Next comes a “thinkers’ conference” Ignatieff promised when he thought he’d have to fight Bob Rae for the Liberal leadership and probably now heartily regrets promising. It was to happen in September and is now scheduled for early 2010. Ignatieff’s minimal need is to impose a Hippocratic oath on this thing: first, it must do no harm to his leadership. So it mustn’t degenerate into a forum for clannish infighting or a source of quotes for future Conservative attack ads. If it actually produces any ideas that’s a sort of bonus.
One other party must adjust to the yawning chasm of non-crisis that lies ahead. Jack Layton’s NDP doesn’t get much attention around Ottawa these days, but viewed properly, that’s a problem. Layton decided in January he would do the opposite of whatever Ignatieff did. When Ignatieff was desperate to avoid an election, Layton was voting non-confidence at every turn and mocking Ignatieff’s timidity. When Ignatieff reversed polarity in September, so did Layton. Suddenly he was the Only Man Who Wanted Parliament To Work. If Ignatieff’s moves have been dumb, Layton’s must be clever. And yet, in poll after poll, the New Democrats can’t get off the floor. I think Layton has been a good leader for the NDP, but there seems to be a ceiling to his appeal. Now that the party has time to replace him, he must ask himself whether to get that process started by handing in his resignation
http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/11/13/maybe-well-have-have-an-election-in-2011/
Ignatieff slips closer to Dion territory
The good news for Michael Ignatieff in a new Nanos Research poll is that he is still more popular than was his predecessor, Stéphane Dion, after he lost the last general election just over a year ago.
The bad news is that another month like the one just passed and the Liberal leader will be in Dion territory — that is, where only one in 10 Canadians think you would make the best Prime Minister.
The latest poll shows that Mr. Ignatieff's popularity has fallen off a cliff since the summer. When he became leader, he was within touching distance of Stephen Harper, with the percentage of people thinking he would make the best prime minister consistently in the high 20s, compared to Mr. Harper's numbers in the low 30s.
----------------
There is great concern in Conservative ranks that any gains in central Canada at the next election could be wiped out if the party lost some of its 22 seats in B.C. to the NDP over the harmonized sales tax issue. For this reason, if no other, one suspects the government will be keen to avoid a general election around the time the HST is introduced in B.C. and in Ontario next summer.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/11/13/john-ivison-ignatieff-slips-closer-to-dion-territory.aspx
Canada
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc
2008 Election / 37.7% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10% / Cons surpassed Libs by 12%
Nov 13 / Nanos / 38% / 28.8% / 17.9% / Libs lead NDP by 11%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.6% / 26.6% / 16.8% /
Nov 5 / EKOS / 37.4% / 26.8% / 16.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%
Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%
Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5%
Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16%
Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3%
Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15%
Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13%
Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7% / 15.2%
Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%
BC
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9% / 25%
Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24%
Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%
Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%
Sask/Man
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
Nov 11 / EKOS / 44.2% / 28.8% / 16.3%
Ontario
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 39.2% / 33.8% / 15.5%
Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%
Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP
2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 35.6% / 21.3% / 21.7% / 10.7%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15%
Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%
Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%
AC
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election /
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.5% / 32.8% / 25.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%
Leadership
Best PM
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign
Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads
]
I think it is too late for Iggy though, the damage has been done. I do not think he can recover. I really don't.
I guess we will have to wait until after the next election for a new Lib leader? or will Iggy do the right thing and step down beforehand? I really do not believe he can win.
Harper is only 8 seats from majority territory (although he really has a defacto one now) and can have a Senate majority by Christmas, so things are going to start getting better/easier for Harper and I fully believe he will get a majority next time, not because he is good but because Iggy is so bad (he may not be that bad but the damage to his reputation is done as far too many think he is and people will not give any other party a chance so we will have harper for 4-5 more years depending on next election).
Iggy should hire some of the same PR people and spin doctors like what the cons have. I hate Harper but he runs a lean mean well oiled machine almost like the now rusted out Big Red Machine the Libs had at one time.
Hard to believe almost a year ago Harper even being conservative-reform party leader was in doubt as was his conservative-reform party government.
Harper really should be kissing Iggy's ass in gratitude. Iggy saved Harpers political life and the con-reform government and now almost a year later the Libs are down the drain and Harper oh so close to a majority, probably within a year. Unbelievable really.
I also wonder if Iggy secretly regrets not going the coalition route? But you know what they say about hindsight..
What, no EKOS polling results, apart from the gun control bullshit, for this week.
Polling must be either very good for the NDP, or very bad for the Liberals, or maybe both, for Graves to have not published his results this week. 
What, no EKOS polling results, apart from the gun control bullshit, for this week.
Polling must be either very good for the NDP, or very bad for the Liberals, or maybe both, for Graves to have not published his results this week.
Not necessarily. And the polls are likely to show a small uptick for the Liberals rather than a decline. The Conservatives are likely to experience a small decline.
Yes, Graves was on Evan Solomon's Politics show today talking about a poll - a poll on Canadians' attitude towards gun control and the gun registry. Canadians appear divided on the subject.
They've changed the EKOS schedule. A bigger sample, but only every other week now; with viewer questions in the off-weeks. ThreeHundredEight.com inferred what the party standings would be from one of the break-out cross-tabs on one of the gun questions, but thinks those are unweighted numbers.
Yup, you sure called it Debater.
The reality is EKOS saw the good NDP numbers, and the cave-in for the Liberal numbers and didn't want to publish.
What, no EKOS polling results, apart from the gun control bullshit, for this week.
Polling must be either very good for the NDP, or very bad for the Liberals, or maybe both, for Graves to have not published his results this week.
Not necessarily. And the polls are likely to show a small uptick for the Liberals rather than a decline. The Conservatives are likely to experience a small decline.
Yes, Graves was on Evan Solomon's Politics show today talking about a poll - a poll on Canadians' attitude towards gun control and the gun registry. Canadians appear divided on the subject.
Not necessarily. And the polls are likely to show a small uptick for the Liberals rather than a decline. The Conservatives are likely to experience a small decline.
Sorry Debater - more like "continued collapse for the Liberals to the lowest standings in polling history, only 5 or so points ahead of the NDP." What's your prediction for next week? I'm sure Donolo's "Iggy Invisible" strategy of having the Leader of the Opposition absent from Parliament for a major international scandal involving war crimes committed by Canadian soildiers will be a smashing success If Iggy doesn't want the Opposition Leader's job, Jack will be happy to take over from him...
Federal NDP making gains at Liberal, Tory expense: Poll
The federal New Democratic Party has vaulted to levels of voter approval not seen since before the last federal election, as Canada's two major parties struggle to hold support, suggest findings of a poll released Friday.
The NDP surged six percentage points to 19 per cent support nationally, according to results of an Ipsos Reid poll, commissioned by Canwest News Service and Global National.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's ruling Conservatives fell three points to 37 per cent, shy of the 40 per cent typically seen as a level needed to land a majority government.
Michael Ignatieff's Liberals garnered 24 per cent of support among respondents, a drop of one percentage point from late October.
The Liberals' steady descent has them almost at the same depths as in December of last year, when former leader Stephane Dion's call for a coalition government sat uneasily with a majority of Canadians. A poll taken Dec. 3 suggested the Liberals' support had dipped to 23 per cent.
The results suggest Liberal attacks during the last month — such as those over stimulus spending, partisan appointments, and reports that Afghan detainees under Canadian supervision had been handed over to local authorities where they were later tortured — have had little traction with voters.
Darrell Bricker, CEO and president of Ipsos Reid, chalked up the gains of Jack Layton's NDP to Ontario voters being frustrated with the McGuinty government, particularly with the forthcoming harmonized sales tax, and that is being carried over to the federal Liberals.
"The NDP has really started to define a position on that issue," said Bricker. "It's not that the NDP has moved so much provincially, but the Liberal brand is in a certain amount of trouble in this province. As we know, (Ontario) is a place where elections are won and lost."
In Ontario, 39 per cent of decided voters said if an election were held today, they would cast their ballots for the Conservatives (down two points since October); the Liberals would attract 29 per cent support (down three points); the NDP 21 per cent, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points.
"It looks like the Liberals are caught in that old classic pincer movement," said Bricker, "where they're now not just losing their centrist and slightly right-wing voters, they're also starting to lose their left-wing voters . . . to the NDP."
http://www.canada.com/news/Federal+making+gains+Liberal+Tory+expense+Poll/2247668/story.html
Canada
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc
2008 Election / 37.7% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10% / Cons surpassed Libs by 12%
Nov 20 / Ipsos / 37% / 24% / 19% / Cons lead Libs by 13% & NDP reduces Libs lead to 5%
Nov 20 / ARS / 38% / 23% / 17% / Cons lead Libs by 15% & NDP reduces Lib lead to 6%
Nov 13 / Nanos / 38% / 28.8% / 17.9% / Cons lead Libs by 9% & Libs lead NDP by 11%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.6% / 26.6% / 16.8% /
Nov 5 / EKOS / 37.4% / 26.8% / 16.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%
Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%
Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5%
Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16%
Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3%
Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15%
Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13%
Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7% / 15.2%
Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%
BC
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9% / 25%
Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24%
Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%
Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%
Sask/Man
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
Nov 11 / EKOS / 44.2% / 28.8% / 16.3%
Ontario
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 39.2% / 33.8% / 15.5%
Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%
Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP
2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 35.6% / 21.3% / 21.7% / 10.7%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15%
Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%
Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%
AC
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election /
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.5% / 32.8% / 25.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%
Leadership
Best PM
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign
Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads
Now is the time for the NDP to seriously put the boots to those lying Liberals.
Ignatieff slips further behind in poll
Michael Ignatieff is surely hoping this is rock bottom.
A new public opinion survey shows support for the Liberals has slipped to 23 per cent – well back of the 38 per cent support for the front-running Conservatives.
The survey was taken from Nov. 14 to Nov. 16, which is before news broke this week regarding the treatment of Afghan detainees.
It shows the Conservatives are essentially at the same level of support, 37.6 per cent, they received in the 2008 election, while the Liberals under Mr. Ignatieff are now three points lower than the 26.2 per cent the party received in 2008 under previous leader Stéphane Dion.
Support for the NDP has remained constant at 17 per cent this fall, which is one point below the party’s 2008 results.
The Angus Reid/Toronto Star survey polled 1,005 Canadian adults who are part of an Angus Reid Forum online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
In contrast to the same survey company’s results for Oct. 23-24, the Tories are down two points, the Liberals are down three points,
Take a good look at these charts.
Steady as she goes
The NDP is holding on to its roughly 12 per cent support in Quebec, and is nicely competitive in the Atlantic.
If Layton continues to break away from the faltering B.C. Liberals, he would be able give the Conservatives a run for their money in many parts of that province. In Ontario, those numbers suggest that current Conservative and NDP Ontario MPs can be relatively confident of re-election, while Liberal MPs in marginal ridings would be in some trouble. The Quebec numbers are good news for the Bloc Quebecois unless the national parties concentrate and grow their support. At those levels, the Liberal vote in concentrated in anglophone ridings and isn’t going to change the electoral map. The NDP vote is likely strongest on the Island of Montreal and in the Outaouais – not a bad start. The Conservatives, as they demonstrated in last week’s by-elections, seem to be growing in rural Quebec. But the Bloc needs to drop a fair bit, in the right places and distributed the right way, for that party to be seriously dentable. In Atlantic Canada these numbers set up a series of unpredictable three-way races.
What does it all mean? Probably, that the current Parliament would be re-elected in roughly its present form if there was an election today. The Conservatives and New Democrats have done well this fall. But nobody is running away with the show.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/brian-topp/steady-as-she-goes/article1371750/
Paul Wells and the rest of the Ottawa punditry sure missed this NDP surge, or did they.
Did the earth move boys
Like who cares what the Liberals hope for? Whatever it is, the Canadian voters aren't buying it.
Poor Liberal CBCers. Still drowning their sorrows in the fall from grace of Canada's natural governing party. I don't think they will ever get over it. It seems like the world has passed them by.
With the polls that came out today showing the NDP surging, you can't get a more negative article than this trash.
Opportunity knocks for the NDP?
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2009/11/opportunity-knocks-for-the-ndp.html
With the polls that came out today showing the NDP surging
What was the other one besides Ipsos?
The reality is EKOS saw the good NDP numbers, and the cave-in for the Liberal numbers and didn't want to publish.
Here's the numbers a blogger extracts from the EKOS gun control poll:
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2009/11/gun-control-poll-from-ekos.html
But looking behind the numbers, we get an idea of party support between November 11 and November 17. EKOS asked respondents who they would vote for in addition to how they felt about guns in order to get an idea of how particular party supporters feel about gun ownership and the long gun registry. Using those numbers from a pool of 2,517 decided voters, we get:
Conservatives - 38.1%
Liberals - 26.6%
New Democrats - 14.5%
Greens - 10.6%
Bloc Quebecois - 10.3%
Now, take those numbers with a grain of salt, as I don't believe EKOS weighted the regional results the same they do for a normal national poll.
This Parliament will last for a while
The NDP already negotiating terms for propping up the Conservatives
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/This+Parliament+will+last+while/2249954/story.html
Now is the time for the NDP to seriously put the boots to those lying Liberals.
Really? I thought we should be going after the Cons seeing as they are the ones running this circus...the libs can't say much on this front as they are ankle deep in it while the cons are up to their armpits. Go for the jugular and take the government down, we pick up seats in the west by doing so.
NR no disrespect but are you a conservative? YOu seem to get an awful lotof enjoyment from watching the libs hurt but never the cons? I still see the cons as the enemy, they will work less with us than the libs I can assure you that.
No I would rather watch the polls go to something along the lines of cons 30, libs 26, ndp 26, now that would make for an interesting parl session.
Thorin, I don't read NR's interventions that way. I find them usually tied to a concern that the Conservatives may be set to achieve a majority, and worrying about what could be done to stop that.
However, I do tend to agree with you that the correct strategy for the NDP is to focus on the Conservatives right now. The hapless Liberals should not be given any more credit than they already get, and indeed they can't figure out themselves what should be the priority from day to day.
Yayy! Someone gets it!
tb, yup Paul Martin really worked with the NDP, and that is why the Cons took power. Just like Ignatieff works with the NDP, and that is why the Cons are holding onto power.
Maybe we just want different things for the NDP. I have no interest politically in the NDP being the conscience of Canada, I want the NDP to form the government, albeit a good and principled one.
Most Canadians don't want an election right now. Both Layton and Harper get that and are being rewarded for it in the polls. It seems to me the party that best gives Canadians what they want gets the brass ring.
The Liberals are representing few and fewer Canadians each day.
There is no question we have been changed by 9/11 but one of the biggest menaces to what once was the Canadian way of life is Rick Hillier. The sooner we are completely rid of him the better. But which party engineered him into a position of influence.
It's only been a decade, but the conservative way is redefining us
The NDP already negotiating terms for propping up the Conservatives
Is that a good thing?
Depends what they can get. Whatever they get, though, it will be more than the Liberals won without the coalition.
Absolutely, where Parliament will last for a while. And it will as even Peter the Great admitted that today. It is an excellent idea, in a minority Parliament situation, where Candians have made it clear that they are in no mood for an election.
And certainly a lot better than dealing with those Liberals who had a chance for a coalition government, but with their deranged visions of grandeur, ended up smoking themselves instead. All Ignatieff is basically doing is repeating Martin's mistakes.
The NDP already negotiating terms for propping up the Conservatives
Is that a good thing?
Here comes the Liberal pollster, H/D to the rescue.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5ic7-6jwKzCaLSfDfkjOmRgLAXt5Q
And now even an NDP pollster?
http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_644.html
Canada
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc
2008 Election / 37.7% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10% / Cons surpassed Libs by 12%
Nov 26 / Robbins / 32.5% / 25% / 22.5% / Woo! Hoo! Libs lead NDP by less than 3%
Nov 26 / Har/Dec / 36% / 27% / 15% / Cons lead Libs by 9%
Nov 20 / Ipsos / 37% / 24% / 19% / Cons lead Libs by 13% & NDP reduces Libs lead to 5%
Nov 20 / ARS / 38% / 23% / 17% / Cons lead Libs by 15% & NDP reduces Lib lead to 6%
Nov 13 / Nanos / 38% / 28.8% / 17.9% / Cons lead Libs by 9% & Libs lead NDP by 11%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.6% / 26.6% / 16.8% /
Nov 5 / EKOS / 37.4% / 26.8% / 16.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%
Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%
Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5%
Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16%
Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3%
Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15%
Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13%
Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7% / 15.2%
Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%
BC
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9% / 25%
Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24%
Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%
Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%
Sask/Man
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
Nov 11 / EKOS / 44.2% / 28.8% / 16.3%
Ontario
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 39.2% / 33.8% / 15.5%
Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%
Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP
2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%
Nov 11 / EKOS / 35.6% / 21.3% / 21.7% / 10.7%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15%
Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%
Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%
AC
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election /
Nov 11 / EKOS / 36.5% / 32.8% / 25.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%
Leadership
Best PM
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign
Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads
Conservatives keep lead in poll
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/10/28/ekos-poll.html
Sondage CROP: Ignatieff en panne
Le chef des libéraux fédéraux, Michael Ignatieff, a perdu beaucoup de plumes au Québec et son parti a poursuivi sa longue glissade dans la faveur populaire après l'affrontement dans la circonscription d'Outremont et la démission de Denis Coderre.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/200910/28/01-915875-sondage-crop-ignatieff-en-panne.php
Canada
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc
2008 Election / 37.6% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17% / Cons lead Libs by 14%, NDP trails Libs by only 9%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%
Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%
Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5%
Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16%
Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3%
Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15%
Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13%
Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7% / 15.2%
Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%
Ontario
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%
Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%
Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP
2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15%
Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%
Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%
BC
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9% / 25%
Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24%
Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%
Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%
AC
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election
Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%
Leadership
Best PM
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign
Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads
Welcome back Peter Donolo. Here's your first headache.
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-22884-Canada-Politics-Examiner~y2009m10d29-Welcome-back-Peter-Donolo-Heres-your-first-headache
Memo from Donolo to Iggy: "You're dreaming."
http://www.ottawasun.com/comment/columnists/greg_weston/2009/10/29/11561771-sun.html
Ekos, October 29
Among decided respondents, the Conservatives drew 38.4 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 26.8 per cent and the New Democratic Party at 16.7 per cent.
The Green Party had the support of 9.9 per cent of decided respondents, while the Bloc Québécois had 8.2 per cent support, according to the EKOS poll, which was released exclusively to CBC.
Last week, the Conservatives stood at 38.3 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 27.1 per cent, the NDP at 14.5 per cent, the Green Party at 11 per cent, and the BQ at nine per cent.
Respondents in the automated telephone survey are asked: "If an election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?" The poll reached 3,220 respondents between Oct. 21 and Oct. 27. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
EKOS also asked Canadians their thoughts on the leadership of Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton, asking if any of the three should be removed immediately as leader of their respective party.
On Jack Layton, 51 per cent of respondents indicated they thought Layton should remain at the helm of the NDP, while 25 per cent said he should be replaced.
Layton had the high-water mark of support among the three leaders. On Harper, 45 per cent said he should stay, while 40 per cent said he should be replaced.
Michael Ignatieff's support was the weakest: 31 per cent of respondents said he should stay, while 46 per cent said he should go.
That's great news for Jack, Scott. At least he'll get to keep his job.
Notice that in the Ekos release and in the CBC's reporting of the polls - they manage to studiously ignore the fact that NDP support went by over two points. I guess it gets in the way of their cozy little narrative that the NDP is always facing disaster and then when it doesn't happen they have their little temper tantrums.
Of course they noticed it Stockholm so that the next fluctuation in the other direction can produce a headline.
That's great news for Jack, Scott. At least he'll get to keep his job.
Whup-te-doo. 40 percent of the country cant stand Harper, 46% cant stand Iggy, 50% like Jack, and he still cant hoist the party past 16%.
Ditch the smiling simpleton already
The bad news is Harper is heading for majority territory. Look for a snap election.
I highly doubt it. Their strategy is to get ensconced in the public's mind as the only viable governing party, and in their view the longer they're in office the better. Plus, they do not want to miss out on the Olympics. You can't just look at the public domain horse-race poll numbers to figure out what's in various parties' interest.
Of course they noticed it Stockholm so that the next fluctuation in the other direction can produce a headline.
LOL, Sean :-)
So Howard Jack is to blame because the NDP does get corproate MSM press - and proposally excluded from the horserace of twiddle-dee and dum?
When the leader is more positively rated than the party getting rid of the popular leader is - in MPO - the dumbest move the party would make.
Do you have a suggestion in who would be better? Personally, Jack is pulling the NDP as party ratings up.
He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.
He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.
If that's the best you can do, i would say that you are the one with no ideas and that you are going no where.
If I was a Liberal, I'd...set myself on fire and jump in a vat of iodine and razor blades... but besides that I wouldn't be entirely disheartened by the polls.
It seems to me the fluctuation of numbers shows that people are still looking for reasons NOT to vote for Harper; the Liberals just have to come up with a satisfactory one, and the people still will.
The message here is the people who keep vacilating to the Conservatives saying to the Liberals: "See who you are making me vote for?"
We have to find away to get more of those disaffected Liberals to go NDP. The problem, as I see it, is that while there are a ton of Liberal voters (and BQ voters for that matter) who will list the NDP as their second choice - the soft Liberal and soft BQ voters tend to be people who would go Tory, the Liberals and Bloquists who would go NDP tend to be more part of the base vote for those parties. When Liberal support is 25% - they have lost ALL the Liberal/Tory switchers. I think that when Liberal support starts to go even lower, the next layer are people who will go NDP or Green or won't vote. Similarly in Quebec, for the NDP to realize its full potential, the BQ would have to show signs of a total collapse.
I hear Ignatieff will be looking for work soon. He has no ideas and the party is nowhere but down.
I always find the criticism of Layton interesting. He does get alot of criticism. Infact, all parties and people from all parties really like to bash Jack Layton. From Liberals to Conservatives to Green, Layton bashing is a popular sport. Infact, it is so popular that many NDP voters engage in bashing Layton. Possibly the only ones justified in doing so, as they do vote for Layton and the party and no one should get a free meal ticket. Amidst all this criticism, and with the sky falling in September, Jack Layton has bumped up in opinion not down. The NDP have maintained their tradition levels of support, unlike the current LPC unless you wish to believe that Dion ushered in the new norm for the LPC of 26% or less.
No, Layton has taken a party with 13 seats to 19 seats to 29 seats and to 37 seats. And in the midst of popular neo liberal teachings of the 90s and with a generation who know of life in no other terms, the NDP has moved from irrellavent to a regular player in parliment and media and therefore within the public mindset.
A few years back, talk of the NDP was not a common factor in a coffeeshop. Today, it is mixed in daily discussions and be them positive or negative, they are talked about.
I think that considering Jack Layton was himself boxed in shortly after Ignatieff abandon the coalition, he has recovered and is a proven political warrior.
Look were the hapless Dion is today. And quite Frankly, the panic in the LPC and the blundered job of appointing Donolo, shows that the LPC have a difficult road ahead, and Ignatieff will not be around after the next election cycle.
The NDP have gone from strength to strength. What does this mean for a small party? Well, the NDP is still around, unlike the Social Credit party of the same era. And while Ed Broadbent was extremely popular and led the NDP to their high water mark seatwise, the NDP of today are actually within striking range of beating that figure.
There are more footholds and growth areas, as well, Ontario, where the NDP polling numbers are often the lowest nationally, is also the Provice where the NDP holds a record number of seats, surpassing Ed Broadbents days, and this is with the lingering morning after effects of the Provincial Rae government. Something Ed Broadbent never had to contend with.
On a final note, the NDP appears to have the most ideas in the house. Not only does this party have policy conventions and leadership conventions, (Unlike the Ignatieff Liberals), the NDP also provides the most PMB in the house. The party has the fewest members.
To say that "Jack Layton" has no ideas, is to suggest that the party has no ideas. Which is demonstratably not so. The NDP has many ideas, some still from the CCF waiting for the right political situation to be implemented. Regardless of whether people like Laytons Pension proposal, there is no doubt he was prepped, researched and prepared when the issue of pensions came to forefront.
Ignatieff was an empty vessel on the issue.
And Harper is hearing something, regardless if he views it like a swallow of buckleys.
If anything, few NDP leaders have been in the media spotlight as much as Layton. Typically it is for the media to redicule and take pot shots.
Throughout the "noise" , some of that message is getting through, which is the job of a leader.
Any ideas on Ignatieffs message?
Harpers message is clear. So is Duceppes.
To suggest, at this point in time the NDP to change a seasoned leader for someone else is absurd and I haven't heard anything so stupid since... Dion, erm, Ignatieff....
He has no ideas. The party's going nowhere.
If that's the best you can do, i would say that you are the one with no ideas and that you are going no where.
ok, name one radical or smart idea of Jack's
Anyone?
Hello?
[crickets chirping, a lonely tumbleweed rolls through the centre of town]
people like Forrest Gump too. Doesnt mean they'll vote for him.
I agree with this synopsis, and there is noway IMV, that Harper could call one, it ould erode what he has gained.
Look what happened to Iffy when he said he was going for 1, the fallout is still happening.
Canadians are in no mood for political games.
In the Nineties and up until Layton became the Leader Canadian Election Study delving into voter choices showed a huge number of NDP identifiers voting for the Liberals.
We tend to talk about NDP/Lib swing voters in general- voters who are going to vote for one of those two.
But since Layton became Leader a lot more of those NDP identifiers have actually started voting NDP.
I'm wondering if that was the easier inroad into the NDP/Lib swing vote, and going further is both more difficult and just plain a different nut to crack.
Dion walks again
In the Nineties and up until Layton became the Leader Canadian Election Study delving into voter choices showed a huge number of NDP identifiers voting for the Liberals.
We tend to talk about NDP/Lib swing voters in general- voters who are going to vote for one of those two.
But since Layton became Leader a lot more of those NDP identifiers have actually started voting NDP.
I'm wondering if that was the easier inroad into the NDP/Lib swing vote, and going further is both more difficult and just plain a different nut to crack.
I think that's true - but those voting patterns are also very regionally differentiated. In the West especially, there are much more NDP-Cons switchers than NDP-Lib switchers, in my opinion. Most folks who vote Liberal in BC are affluent city dwellers in places like Vancouver Centre and North Vancouver - if they are going to switch, they will go Cons. That's why the Cons picked up Lib seats where the NDP has no chance in 2008, in places like Richmond, North Vancouver and almost Vancouver South.
The Esquimalt-JDF seat is most definitely NOT Liberal, it is a Keith Martin seat and will go either Cons or NDP when Martin steps down. When the NDP won Victoria from the Libs in 2006, the Cons were a close 3rd and finished a strong 2nd in 2008 with the Liberals well behind. In BC, the Conservative vote is a populist one and can go NDP under certain circumstances. Moe Sihota said his strongest provincial NDP polls in Esquimalt were the strongest Reform polls federally (back when Keith M was a Reformer, of course).
So, while we do need to find ways to attract Lib voters in Ontario and points East, from the Manitoba border West I think the main prize is soft Conservatives, soft Greens and non-voters. The Libs only have 7 seats west of Ontario anyway, and apart from Esquimalt-JDF and maybe Newton North-Delta, I don't think the NDP has much chance at winning any of them.
The major NDP-Lib vote switch in the West happened in 2008. In fact, we want the Libs to maintain a certain strength in BC so we can win the 3-way splits with the Conservatives. If the Lib vote comes up a bit and eats in to the Conservative strength, we take back Vancouver Island North and have a good chance at winning Surrey North, Kamloops-Thomson and Pitt Meadows-Mission.
That said, we obviously have to find a way to get some soft Lib votes in the GTA, Montreal/Outauoais, and Atlantic Canada if we want to see growth in those regions.
In the West especially, there are much more NDP-Cons switchers than NDP-Lib switchers, in my opinion.
Traditionally the NDP has been strongest in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. So why are the Cons dominating the NDP so much in these areas? In the latest polls Con numbers in MB and SK have resembled their numbers in Alberta!
I think that's true - but those voting patterns are also very regionally differentiated. In the West especially, there are much more NDP-Cons switchers than NDP-Lib switchers, in my opinion. Most folks who vote Liberal in BC are affluent city dwellers in places like Vancouver Centre and North Vancouver - if they are going to switch, they will go Cons. That's why the Cons picked up Lib seats where the NDP has no chance in 2008, in places like Richmond, North Vancouver and almost Vancouver South.
The Esquimalt-JDF seat is most definitely NOT Liberal, it is a Keith Martin seat and will go either Cons or NDP when Martin steps down. When the NDP won Victoria from the Libs in 2006, the Cons were a close 3rd and finished a strong 2nd in 2008 with the Liberals well behind. In BC, the Conservative vote is a populist one and can go NDP under certain circumstances. Moe Sihota said his strongest provincial NDP polls in Esquimalt were the strongest Reform polls federally (back when Keith M was a Reformer, of course).
So, while we do need to find ways to attract Lib voters in Ontario and points East, from the Manitoba border West I think the main prize is soft Conservatives, soft Greens and non-voters. The Libs only have 7 seats west of Ontario anyway, and apart from Esquimalt-JDF and maybe Newton North-Delta, I don't think the NDP has much chance at winning any of them.
The major NDP-Lib vote switch in the West happened in 2008. In fact, we want the Libs to maintain a certain strength in BC so we can win the 3-way splits with the Conservatives. If the Lib vote comes up a bit and eats in to the Conservative strength, we take back Vancouver Island North and have a good chance at winning Surrey North, Kamloops-Thomson and Pitt Meadows-Mission.
That said, we obviously have to find a way to get some soft Lib votes in the GTA, Montreal/Outauoais, and Atlantic Canada if we want to see growth in those regions.
That's a useful refinement of Stockholm's insight, which I still think is very interesting if true, albeit that its area of application would be more circumscribed as you say. I also agree with your run-down on the BC seats, but would throw in Vancouver Centre as a current Liberal seat that would not be out of the realm of possibility with the right candidate and vote split. The other seat the NDP could make a historical claim to with a higher Liberal vote would be Conservative-held Nanaimo-Alberni. John Fryer isn't running up there for the Greens this time, by the way, having decided to spend his time back home in Victoria managing Liz May's campaign in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
double-post; sorry
"Most folks who vote Liberal in BC are affluent city dwellers in places like Vancouver Centre and North Vancouver - if they are going to switch, they will go Cons."
I think that's true to a point, but there are other elements of the Liberal vote in BC that the NDP ought to be able to access. We can write off the Liberal vote in places like North Van, West Van., Vancouver Quadra and Van South - because those are all examples of the silk-stocking upper class Liberal types who will rarely vote NDP. But then you get people who vote Liberal because they live in Van Centre or EsquimaltJUan de Fuca - and for reasons that I find unfathomable - they think that Hedy Fry and Keith Martin are just such faaantastic MPs (to paraphrase VanderZalm) that they vote Liberal for those people - but if Fry and Martin retired tomorrow, I'll bet a big chunk of their personal votes would go NDP.
There are also Liberal votes among ethnic communities in places Newton-North Delta and to a lesser extent after 2008 in the Burnaby seats and Van Kingsway that the NDP could easily pick up if people started to give up on the Liberals.
Agreed it was OO, as was your add on, and I concur with both your observations, for the most part.
JKR, long history behind that....
I'll agree with ottawaobserver's suggestion that Vancouver Centre is winnable for the NDP, and add that I could see the NDP picking up Wascana once Ralph Goodale retires (depending on what the polls are like at the time).
Somewhat less sure about Fry these days than Martin--mostly because of gentrification and condo overkill...
It now is all but certain that the government will stay in power for the next several months, with the support of the small New Democratic Party.
http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCATRE5A43GG20091105
Canada
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP / Bloc
2008 Election / 37.7% / 26.2% / 18.2% / 10% / Cons surpassed Libs by 12%
Nov 5 / EKOS / 37.4% / 26.8% / 16.3% / Cons lead Libs by 11%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 26% / 17%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 38.4% / 26.8% / 16.7%
Oct 26 / Envir / 38% / 26% / 16%
Oct 26 / IR / 40% / 25% / 13%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 39.8% / 30% / 16.6%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 38.3% / 27.1% / 14.5%
Oct 16 / ARS / 41% / 27% / 16%
Oct 15 / EKOS / 40.7% / 25.5% / 14.3%
Oct 15 / HD / 35% / 28% / 15%
Oct 12 / IR / 39% /29%/ 13%
Oct 8 / EKOS / 39.7% / 25.7% / 15.2%
Oct 6 / Strat Con / 41% / 28% / 14%
Ontario
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election / 39.2% / 33.8% / 18.2%
Oct 29 / ARS / 41% / 31% / 17%
Oct 15 / ARS / 45% / 29% / 19%
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Bloc / Libs / Cons / NDP
2008 Election / 38.1% / 23.8% / 21.7% / 12.2%
Oct 29 / ARS / 40% / 20% / 21% / 15%
Oct 28 / CROP / 37% / 23% / ? / 16%
Oct 15 / ARS / 36% / 26% / 25% / 8%
BC
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / Libs
2008 / Election / 44.5% / 26.1% / 19.3%
Oct 29 / ARS / 43% / 25% / 27%
Oct 28 / EKOS / 36.8% / 28.9% / 25%
Oct 26 / Envir / 34% / 29% / 24%
Oct 26 / IR / 49% / 23% / 18%
Oct 22 / Nanos / 37.3% / 22.6% / 29.4%
Oct 22 / EKOS / 37.5% / 24.9% / 25.4%
Oct 16 / AR / 47% / 22% / 21% / 9%
AC
Date / Pollster / Cons / Libs / NDP
2008 Election
Oct 29 / ARS / 35% / 32% / 26%
Leadership
Best PM
Quebec
Date / Pollster / Lay / Har/ Ign
Oct 28 / CROP / 26% / 25% / 20% / Layton leads