Three Byelections Called

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jerrym
Three Byelections Called

Three byelections have been called on November 26th in order to replace: Denise Savoie (NDP - Victoria, BC); Lee Richardson (Con - Calgary Centre, Alberta); and (last and least) Bev Oda (Con- Durham, Ontario). While the NDP has a candidate chosen in Victoria, the nomination meeting in the other 2 ridings have not been held. Since Savoie won by 16,000 votes, this should be an easy NDP victory. However, the NDP, IMO, missed an opportunity to make its candidates in the other two ridings better known by having earlier nomination meetings and then starting campaigning before the official byelection call. It is obvious that Harper sees the rise of Trudeau and Liberal popularity (however long this bubble lasts) as an opportunity to split the opposition vote giving his candidates a better chance of winning. Nevertheless, byelections give the population a chance to send a message to a government that has been arrogant, extremely ideological, disrespectful of Parliament and scandal-ridden.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2012/10/by-election...

Murray Rankin, "a prominent Canadian environmental and aboriginal rights lawyer ... former President of the British Columbia interest Advocacy Centre (BCPIAC), former president of West Coast Environmental Law , and past Chairman of The Land Conservancy of British Columbia" is the candidate in Victoria (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murray_Rankin)

The NDP have set Oct.27th as the selection date for their candidate in Calgary Centre and have three candidates nominated: Brian Malkinson, Matthew McMillan, and Dan Meades. Scott Payne pulled out to support Meades.   

"Former MPP and Brock Township mayor Larry O’Connor announced earlier today on Twitter that he would be running for the NDP nomination in that riding. I don’t have it confirmed, but am hearing that October 30 is the likely date. If O’Connor is uncontested, he would join Conservative Erin O’Toole, Liberal Grant Humes, and a Green to be named later." (http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/10/more-by-election-candidate-news/)

jerrym

Kyle Hatt has given six reasons why a Durham by-election might not be a conservative sure thing.

 "1. Bev Oda’s Personal Popularity - Okay, it seems odd to type that, but there is no way of knowing how many of Bev’s 2011 votes were for her personally. People from across Canada know Oda because of her scandals but people in her riding would know her a lot more personally. They would have seen her at local events, gotten her parliamentary mailers and read her often in the local paper. It’s possible some people voted for her and wouldn’t vote for just any other Conservative.

2. Money - Further to the above point, Oda has been out spending her opponents in all recent elections. In 2011 she spent $ $63,186.89 while the NDP only spent $3.5K and came in second (The Liberals spent 53). Campaigns matter in politics and if the opposition parties (or at least the NDP) are planning to spend the limit then it could change the dynamic. Extra money means extra leaflets, more staff, more advertising, etc. 

3. Durham hasn’t been targeted recently. - I guess there is no way to measure this objectively but it probably hasn’t been targeted by the NDP before (it wouldn’t make sense pre-exln41) and probably not by the Liberals for a while (probably not since 2006).

4. Any Conservative candidate could be tainted by Oda’s scandals – While it’s not a given, there is a possibility that the voters could reject any conservative candidate because of Oda’s scandals. Voters in her riding have been hearing about this for months (years) and have also been hearing Conservatives defend her… It could be a pox on their house.

5. Any Conservative could be tainted by the Budget - Personally, I think this could be a major factor. There was a widespread expectation in the punditry that the conservative government thought that the unpopular measures in the recent budget would be forgotten by the next federal election. Even if that is true (I don’t think it is), they won’t be forgotten by the time this by-election rolls around. I would bet that the cuts to environmental regulations, changes to the OAS, etc., will come up at the debates and the door steps.

6. The Polls have shifted since the last election – I’ve written previously about the NDPs polling gains …. But the short story here is that the Conservative numbers in Ontario are as much as a quarter lower than they were in May 2012, while the NDP numbers are a third higher. Although Oda had a majority of voters in exln41, this trend makes it a far less of a sure thing that those people would still vote CPC.

Bottomline: A strong opposition candidate and a full campaign team, a strong pre-election effort and a little luck and Durham could be moved out of the CPC column."

http://kaylehatt.ca/6-reasons-why-a-durham-by-election-might-not-be-a-co...

 

felixr

Didn't the NDP have to remove a candidate in Durham a while back because of bigotted comments they had made? Larry O'Connor sounds like a massive improvement!

felixr

Here it is: link

Larry O'Connor has the kind of CV the NDP should have been able to pull for a candidate in Calgary Centre. This is what a government in waiting looks like when it heads into a byelection. Well done Durham NDP!

Mulcair in Durham this September link

felixr

Does anyone know if John O'Toole (Durham MPP) and Erin O'Toole (Durham Conservative MP candidate) are relatives?

jerrym

Upon checking the 2011 election results, I found Denise Savoie won by "only" 13,745 votes, not the 16,000 quoted above from another article. Still sounds like a very safe NDP seat, especially with an outstanding candidate, Murray Rankin, running for the NDP. The 2011 election results for the Victoria ridings are shown below.

Denise Savoie (x) NDP 24,967 51.3%

Patrick Hunt CON 11,222 23.1%

Christopher Causton LIB 6,439 13.2%

Jared Giesbrecht GRN 6,050 12.4%

http://site.citytv.com/federalelections/304.html

 

David Young

Any surprise that he called them before the Etobicoke Centre decision next week?

 

adma

felixr wrote:
Does anyone know if John O'Toole (Durham MPP) and Erin O'Toole (Durham Conservative MP candidate) are relatives?

Father and son. Which could actually be good for making the voters "forget Oda". (Of course, good for the Cons, as opposed to good for Babblers.)

jerrym

David Young wrote:

Any surprise that he called them before the Etobicoke Centre decision next week?

 

Of course, the triple byelection call and campaign provides a distraction from the possible overturning of the election of Conservative MP Ted Optiz's election in Etobicoke Centre because of election irregulairities, followed by the question of why doesn't the government call this fourth potential byelection at the same time as the other three. Harper probably wants to delay this possible byelection call as long as possible in the hopes that, if he has to call a byelection, it is called when it is not as fresh in the minds of the ridings voters, nor affecting the voters in the other three byelections. 

jerrym

In case some are concerned that Murray Rankin might be a remote policy wonk academic from the above description of him as university professor, lawyer, and head of environmental organizations, let me alay any concerns in that regard with this description of his nomination meeting victory by Vaughn Palmer, who is definitely not an NDP partisan. He even defeated Elizabeth Cull, a former NDP provincial finance minister. 

Four candidates were in the running for a nod seen by New Democrats as the closest thing to a sure ticket to Ottawa. ...

Given the stakes, almost 600 party members including a who’s who of capital region New Democrats turned out Sunday, overwhelming organizers who’d not printed enough ballots or booked a big enough meeting room at the University of Victoria.

Once those shortcomings were supplemented with a second hall and a second printing, proceedings settled down for what was expected to be a long afternoon, with multiple rounds of balloting and a gabfest in between. 

So the outcome, when it came, was anticlimactic if decisive. Winning handily with 352 votes on the first ballot was Murray Rankin, a 62-year-old lawyer, civil libertarian, environmentalist and UVic professor.

He’d rounded up two-thirds of the votes over also-rans Elizabeth Cull, a former provincial cabinet minister; Charley Beresford, a former school board chair; and Ben Isitt, still in his first year as a member of city council.

Not surprising to see Beresford (51 votes) and Isitt (36) finish well out of the running. But I figured Cull to do better than her 96 votes. She was one of the better ministers in the Mike Harcourt NDP government, serving in health, environment, finance and as deputy premier. ...

Rankin, seeking office for the first time, arrived well-rehearsed with a strong delivery and some crowd-pleasing lines. “We do not want Canada to be the energy Walmart of the world,” he said, denouncing Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s bitumen-piping aspirations. “We have got to stop this man.”

He also showed himself to be relatively proficient in French compared to the other three candidates, an emerging point of qualification in a party where more than half of the caucus hails from Quebec.

He’d worked the riding like a first-timer learning on the job, too, bicycling to the homes of party members, soliciting their support in the ones and twos.

Necessary that, given complaints that the highfalutin lawyer and adjunct UVic professor hadn’t put in sufficient grunt work in a party where seniority and door-knocking still count.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vaughn+Palmer+Lawyer+Murray+Rankin+easi...

My favourite line in the article was:

“You can tell it is an NDP meeting,” said one of the participants. “The halftime entertainment is more speeches.”

Albireo

jerrym wrote:

David Young wrote:

Any surprise that he called them before the Etobicoke Centre decision next week?

Of course, the triple byelection call and campaign provides a distraction from the possible overturning of the election of Conservative MP Ted Optiz's election in Etobicoke Centre because of election irregulairities, followed by the question of why doesn't the government call this fourth potential byelection at the same time as the other three. Harper probably wants to delay this possible byelection call as long as possible in the hopes that, if he has to call a byelection, it is called when it is not as fresh in the minds of the ridings voters, nor affecting the voters in the other three byelections. 

If so, this seems like foolish strategy.

If the Supreme Court upholds the lower court ruling and requires an Etobicoke Centre by-election, AND if Harper drags his feet as usual and delays the call for months, he will look ridiculously anti-democratic -- not only for leaving the residents of EC with no MP (or worse yet, appearing to prolong the term of an MP whose election has been voided) -- but also for appearing to defy the Supreme Court. The optics would be *terrible*, it would all but guarantee a major outcry among local residents, and make an Opitz victory nearly impossible.

I think Harper was near but not at the 6-month limit for calling Calgary Centre. If he could have waited and called EC alongside the other 3, that would have avoided some controversy, and would dilute the likely bad news of an EC loss with likely Conservative wins in the 2 ridings where they are favoured.

On the other hand, Opitz is overseas (for at least another week?), trying to ensure that Ukrainian elections are free and fair, meeting the standards that we claim to meet back home in Canada. He'll need to come back and campaign, while Wrzesnewskyj has been campaigning for months. So we may see a byelection call late enough to allow the Con campaign to ramp up, but soon enough to avoid the backlash mentioned above.

My money is on a ruling that requires a by-election, and a call for late January, right up against the Ontario Liberals' convention to pick a new Premier. But if Harper does drag it out, we can expect it alongside the *federal* Liberal leadership vote in April. It's just the way the guy operates.

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

How many byelections do the Cons have to lose before they lose their majority? Anyone know?

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

How many byelections do the Cons have to lose before they lose their majority? Anyone know?

Six

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Thanks - much appreciated.

David Young

Theoretically six, but since Goldring is an 'Independent Conservative' who always votes with the government on just about everything, I believe there would have to be seven Conservative seats go to opposition members.

But if that were close to happening, the Conservatives would roll out the patronage barrell and tempt at least one Liberal to cross to them, so there's absolutely no chance of that happening between now and the 2015(?) election!

 

jerrym

The NDP in Durham also moved up their nomination meeting to October 23rd because of Harper's calling of three byelections on November 26th.

Two candidates are running: Larry O'Connor and Kim King. O'Connor was an Ontario NDP member of the legislature elected in the 1990 election but defeated in 1995. He is also a former mayor of Brock Township and ran for vice-chair of the Metis Nation of Ontario. 

Kim King is a retired parole and probation officer who was Chair of the North Durham Social Development Council. 

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/10/november-26-by-elections-the-full-run...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_O'Connor_(politician)

http://durham2012.wordpress.com/about/

jerrym

Dan Meades won the NDP nomination for Calgary Centre in an October 23rd meeting moved up from the original October 30th date because of the byelection call by Harper.

"Meades, executive director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, beat out Brian Malkinson and Matthew McMillan on Tuesday night as parties prepare for the Nov. 26 byelection.

Pundits have the byelection race favouring the Conservatives in a landslide, but Meades is confident he can knock off Tory nominee Joan Crockatt.

“This isn’t a conservative seat,” Meades said. “They act like no matter what they do, they’ll get elected. So they ignore the constituents until election time.”

He added: “There is lots of support in the community. The seat is ours, we just have to go and get it.”

He is also be facing Liberal nominee Harvey Locke, Green party candidate Chris Turner, and Progressive Canadian party representative Ben Christensen.

The byelection was prompted when former MP Lee Richardson resigned in May to become the principal secretary for Alberta Premier Alison Redford."

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Anti+poverty+campaigner+wins+Calgary+Centre...

 

"The NDP, which had been playing its cards close to its chest in the riding with a number of low-profile nomination contestants testing the waters, now appears to have recruited a candidate that has some party stalwarts in the province pretty excited. "Vibrant Calgary" executive director Dan Meades, originally from St. John's, Newfoundland and known for his work fighting poverty and as a advocate for the city's poorest citizens, will join diesel engineer Brian Malkinson and armed forces officer Matthew McMillan in the nomination race (social media expert Scott H. Payne having already withdrawn in Meades' favour)".

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/10/november-26-by-elections-the-full-run...

jerrym

Larry O'Connor tweeted on October 23: 

"I am very pleased to be the Candidate for the #NDP#Durham Riding. By-election work now begins."

http://www.larryoconnor.ca/

Here is his platform as candidate for Vice-Chair of the Metis Nation of Ontario.

http://www.larryoconnor.ca/

Ippurigakko

Larry on his website i saw his banner pic, metis red flag, is he metis?

aweosme i saw his twitter says he is metis.

Brachina

Dan Meade sounds impressive, glad to hear it and he'll no doubt appeal to all the other martimers who moved out West :D Larry O'Connor is insanely qualified, for more so then the Tory candiate. I'm also sure he'll be getting alot of help from his provincial cousins given all the free time the Ontario NDP now has thanks to ExPremier Dalton :p I think if the NDP nets either of Durham and/or Calagary Centre it will be huge and when we keep Victoria will be fine at minium. Dan Meade is impressive and I'm happy to he's so confident, its sounds like he's got deep roots in the community and could pull in large amounts of people that don't normally vote, but I still think Durham is the more likely pickup. I mean we came in second last time and Larry is a former Mayor in the area and former NDP MPP and all around high achiever in a scandal ridden riding that will undoubtedly be getting the full force of NDP support? Chantal view of the bielection.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1275508--hebert-fede...

jerrym

Murray Rankin, the NDP candidate in the Victoria byelection on November 26,  in his press release today about the Cohen Commission report on the decline of the Fraser River sockeye salmon has shown his strong environmental bona fides: 

“It is unacceptable that the Harper government has sat idly by while sockeye salmon have nearly disappeared,” said Murray Rankin, NDP Candidate for Victoria. “Wild salmon are tremendously important to British Columbians - both culturally and economically.”
 
The Conservatives have been dismantling environmental protections and this report is further proof they are going in the wrong direction.
 
“At a time when we need fisheries science more than ever, the Conservatives areslashing scientific capacity in the Department of Fisheries and Oceans. Research, enforcement, monitoring and habitat protection are all on the chopping block – these short-sighted and reckless cuts are putting salmon at risk,” said Rankin.

http://murrayrankin.ndp.ca/

jerrym

Forum polls in the 3 ridings where the byelections have been called show the incumbent parties in strong leads in all three ridings. 

In Durham, Con Erin O'Toole leads Larry O'Connor of the NDP 46% to 24% with Lib Grant Humes third at 20%. Green Party candidate Edward Yaghledjian has 6%.

In Calgary Centre, Con Joan Crockett has 48%, Lib Harvey Locke at 28%, the Green's Chris Turner has 11% and the NDP's Dan Meades at 8%.

In Victoria, Murray Rankin has 47% while the Green candidate has jumped from fourth in the 2011 election with 12% to second with 20%. The Cons' Dale Gann and Libs' Paul Sommerville are tied at 16%. The Cons drop from second place suggests that BCers may not be happy with the Cons' anti-environment policies. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/incoming/article4753316.ece/BINARY/Byelec...

nicky

I was at the NDP "Vision Dinner" last night in Toronto. Tom Mulcair, in a very strong and well-received speech, said he will be attending a fund-raiser in Durham at which money would be raised by selling 16 dolllar orange juice. It sounds like the Durham campaign may be fun.

jerrym

Here is a comparison of the 2011 federal riding results with the results of the Forum poll for these by elections.

2011/2012  Durham       Victoria       Calgary Centre

Con%       54.5/46        23.6/16        57.7/48

Lib%        17.9/20        14/16          17.5/28

NDP%      21.1/24        50.8/47        14.9/8

Green%    5.4/6           11.4/20        9.9/11

(The federal results are from http://www.scribd.com/doc/54674886/2011-Federal-Election-Results-by-Riding)

 

Most of the result differences from year to year are within the margin of error of the Forum poll with the exception of the Cons who are down 7.6%, 8.5% and 9.7% in the three ridings reflecting their fall in the national polls compared to their results in the 2011 election.

The Libs have only made a significant gain in Calgary Centre, suggesting that Trudeau's coattails are not that strong.

The Greens have only made a significant gain in Victoria, suggesting that environmental issues, such as Northern Gateway pipeline, salmon depletion in the Fraser River, and other environmental issues are having an impact here.

The NDP's Murray Rankin's ability to stay within the margin of error difference in the 2011 election suggests that his strong environmental record and hard work in the riding have helped given him a huge margin and kept him close to Denise Savoie's 2011 numbers. Since Savoie was an incumbent who had been on Victoria city council from 1999 to 2005 and had defeated the mayor of Victoria for the nomination in 2006, this is a very strong showing for Rankin and his strong environmental record should keep him from losing support to the Greens. 

O'Connors slight increase in support over the 2011 results for the NDP in Durham suggest that his impressive record as a current mayor and former Ontario MPP and name recognition have helped him overcome the fact that he did not win the nomination until just last week.

On the other hand, Meades decline of roughly 7% in Calgary Centre suggests that this might be due in part to Mulcair's "Dutch disease" comments in the capital of oil industry, but may well be more a result of the equally late nomination of the NDP candidate, who is this riding, does not have the profile of O'Connor in Durham. This suggests to me that unless the NDP has a candidate who is already extremely well known and has a proven political record, the party should be getting their candidates nominated much earlier in the process in order to give them time to build up their name recognition and reputation. I think O'Connor would be doing even better if his nomination had been done earlier. However, he entered the race late as did Meades, which suggests the party has to beat the bushes for strong candidates much earlier, which the other parties in general have done. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

If you only read and listen to Canada's "national" media one would think that Trudeau mania had relevance to the whole country.  Trudeau got a one election bounce in BC and then lost it all in the next election.  Why would the Trudeau name mean anything in this province?  Only someone pontificating from Upper Canada could think Justin would have any effect on voters in BC.

Ippurigakko

catherine fife helped kick off Larry's campaign in durham. which is good news beat conservative. of course 16 dollar orange crush juice.

i read all larry's facebook page many ppl will vote for him. they sounds like very exciting for durham by-election. And on Grant humes and Erin o'toole fb page pretty lame no one more active lol! I like Virginia Ervin, i hope NDP and Green beat them block con and lib.

felixr

Ippurigakko wrote:

catherine fife helped kick off Larry's campaign in durham. which is good news beat conservative. of course 16 dollar orange crush juice.

i read all larry's facebook page many ppl will vote for him. they sounds like very exciting for durham by-election. And on Grant humes and Erin o'toole fb page pretty lame no one more active lol! I like Virginia Ervin, i hope NDP and Green beat them block con and lib.

Thanks for keeping us up to date Ippurigakko! I'm excited to see the Durham campaign develop.

jerrym

The fall to a last place tie for the Libs and Cons in the Forum poll in Victoria, behind the Greens, looks good on them and probably reflects a combination of the Cons anti-environmental and other policies' impact on BC, the great dislike of provincial Liberal leader Christry Clark, and the failure of Trudeaumania to take hold in BC. I can't think of two more deserving candidates for such a tie than the Cons and the Libs. 

jerrym

Twitter quotes and one CTV quote below tell the issues the NDP candidates plan to focus on if elected:

Murray Rankin (Victoria):  

National Research Council latest victim of Conservative science cuts (Nov 2)

Harper is way offside with #Enbridge, the Coast Guard, and issues like OAS. I will take these fights to Ottawa. (Oct 31)

From CTV (Vancouver Island)

"Rankin is campaigning to fill Denise Savoie’s shoes. He says voters here need to stand up for B.C., which he will do in Ottawa. 'I’m identified now with the anti-Enbridge campaign. I’ve worked for a year now advising the provincial NDP caucus on ways to stop the pipeline. On doorsteps it’s an issue that seems very important.' ” (http://www.ctvvancouverisland.ca/2012/11/victoria-by-election-the-candid...)

 

Larry O'Connor (Durham) Twitter:

Important to remember our Veterans and all they have done for us. Honoured to march along side so many (Nov 4)

Out with the #CAW picket line at the Lear plant! GM trying to force concessions on wrkrs despite record profits (Oct 29)

Former Lieutenant Governor of Ontario James Bartelman says Redskins name racist, calls for education (Sept 6)

A taste of my aboriginal heritage in this video of the Métis Voyageur Games, Sault Ste. Marie, 2012 (August 29)

The oldest Canadian patriotic flag: first used by Métis resistance fighters prior to the Battle of Seven Oaks in 1816. (August 27)

 

Dan Meades (Calgary Centre)

"Dan Meades has dedicated himself to building a better Calgary, working tirelessly in community development and poverty reduction.

For the past three and a half years Dan has been the Director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, a public policy advocacy organization focused on social, economic and political engagement.

The City of Calgary consulted with Dan on strategies for affordable housing, public transit and poverty reduction as part of the Municipal Budget Review process in 2011.

Dan was featured as a “Community Changer” at TEDx Calgary, where he spoke on community-building and civic empowerment.

With a degree in English and Business, Dan has worked throughout North America, Europe and West Africa. (http://www.1calgarycentre.com/candidates/dan-meades/)

 

"I grew up and went to university in St. John’s Newfoundland where I made a living as a professional musician.  After I graduated I started working in small communities in Newfoundland in order to help people stop relying on large processing companies for their economic success. Then I went to live in West Africa where I worked and travelled through Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia and Sierra Leone working on agricultural projects as well as helping to develop HIV/AIDS clinics that would be run by the community.  

Three and a half years ago I moved to Calgary and started working as the Director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, an organization that works collaboratively to address the root causes of poverty in Calgary. This work has shown me that if communities work together we can make the lives of everyone in our communities better. That is why I want to go to Ottawa, to fight for the people of Calgary-Centre and to make the lives of everyone who lives here better." (http://danmeades.ndp.ca/)

Dan Meades Twitter: 

MP told his constituent he was against the #nexen deal. His office "sent the wrong response", PMO corrected. (Nov 5)

Hearing #cash4to talk about how people of #ab are against Bill C30 but that the silent Con backbenchers will vote for it anyway (nov 4)

Over 73,000 Canadians have told the Harper gov't to stop the secretive Canada-China trade deal. (Nov 4)

2/2 @pmharper prefers to negotiate deal in secret. I will not keep#yyccentre in dark. See complete release here: http://www.danmeades.ndp.ca (Nov 3)

What r cons hiding? Instead of using #byelexn41 as opportunity 2 discuss + consult on foreign investment (Nov 3)

Even more evidence that economic disparity is growing. I have & will cont to address these issues  (Nov 2)

w AUPE #seniors care workrs in longest labour dispute in AUPE history-128 days (Nov 1)

Big crowd at the Break The Silence launch event to kick off family violence prevention month# (Nov 1)

Great meeting small business owners in the west of the riding. (Oct 31)

We need federal leadership to address food insecurity in this country (Oct 31)

(http://twitter.com/meades4centre)

addictedtomyipod

It is interesting to note on the Victoria by-election.  On the ground, it feels a little like Elizabeth May is running for a seat here, not Donald Galloway.  Every time Mr Galloway has a moment at the media micro-phone, out come platitudes for his idol, and not what he plans on doing for Victoria.  She is also pulling out all the stops by inviting Suzuki here to help her campaign.  It might have been OK to campaign to beat a Conservative (Lunn), but it is not OK to put this much energy to go against a greener candidate than their own (Rankin).  I thought May liked the environment and was here to try and protect it.  Seems that is second place to ego after all. 

 

janfromthebruce

May is for capitalist green environmental responses - let the market do it's green magic and she hates the NDP. I thought that she didn't like Jack but realize that she doesn't like the NDP - essentially that it gets in the way of her beloved liberals.

jerrym

Don't forget that May was Senior Policy Advisor to federal Environmental Minister Tom McMillan in the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney.

"In June 1988, she discovered that the minister had broken the law approving permits for two dams in Saskatchewan (Rafferty and Alameda dams on the Souris River) without environmental review. She resigned on principle, but did not make her reasons for resignation public. In September, the Winnipeg Free Press broke the story of her resignation on the front page, unleashing a storm of anger from Manitoba residents, who were downstream from the Souris. The day after the story broke, the Manitoba Legislature held an emergency debate on the issue. The Canadian Wildlife Federation brought a lawsuit against the decision to grant permits without environmental review. The Federal Court of Canada ruled the permits had been granted illegally."

Despite this, "As one of her last major acts in this post she participated in a poll of experts that determined that Brian Mulroney was Canada's "greenest" Prime Minister for an award presented by Corporate Knights magazine".

 

During the 2008 federal election, she made a deal with Liberal leader Stephane Dion not to run a Green candidate in Dion's riding in return for the Liberals not running a candidate against her in Central Nova. "May had attempted to talk to NDP leader Jack Layton about ways to cooperate to avoid Harper’s party forming government. Layton refused to meet and attacked May for agreeing to a “leader’s courtesy” agreement with Dion. When the May-Dion deal was announced, it was criticized by the Conservatives and NDP, with Layton describing it as "backroom dealing", while former NDP leader Ed Broadbent said that it deprived voters of choice."

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_May)

This should tell you where her political sympathies lie and why she is unlikely to look favourably on the NDP.

 

 

Aristotleded24

There's more on the Green Party. Their Calgary candiate, Chris Turner, [url=http://turner4yyc.ca/home/160-2/]accuses Dan Meades of[/url] "toeing a party line that is openly hostile to Calgary’s interests under Thomas Mulcair." Which Calgary interests is Mulcair openly hostile to? I presume he means Mulcair's remarks about the Dutch Disease, unless I missed something. But wait, on the issue of energy development, Turner himself states, "

  • The Green Party supports responsible, sustainable development in the energy sector. This means growth, innovation, and the opening of new markets—but under a regulatory apparatus led by the federal government that’s second to none
  • My sustainable energy vision sees the one-time gift of fossil fuels as an engine to power Canada’s transition to a low-carbon renewable energy future. And though everyone likes to say that, I actually spent the last 10 years researching how to do it. Ask me about Germany, though I’ll warn you the full answer will take awhile. And it somehow involves beer and currywurst.”"

Mulcair suggested that the oilsands need to be better regulated. He was villified as being anti-Alberta for this reason, as is anybody who suggests that the oilsands need to be better regulated. So how does he get away with the double-talk of on the one hand, using the corporate media talking points for partisan gain, while on the other hand taking the exact same position for which the corporate media will villify people?

Brachina

Larry and Mulcair are holding a rally in Durham Saturday the 10th. Got the info in my email.

felixr

Aristotleded24 wrote:

There's more on the Green Party. Their Calgary candiate, Chris Turner, [url=http://turner4yyc.ca/home/160-2/]accuses Dan Meades of[/url] "toeing a party line that is openly hostile to Calgary’s interests under Thomas Mulcair." Which Calgary interests is Mulcair openly hostile to? I presume he means Mulcair's remarks about the Dutch Disease, unless I missed something. But wait, on the issue of energy development, Turner himself states, "

  • The Green Party supports responsible, sustainable development in the energy sector. This means growth, innovation, and the opening of new markets—but under a regulatory apparatus led by the federal government that’s second to none
  • My sustainable energy vision sees the one-time gift of fossil fuels as an engine to power Canada’s transition to a low-carbon renewable energy future. And though everyone likes to say that, I actually spent the last 10 years researching how to do it. Ask me about Germany, though I’ll warn you the full answer will take awhile. And it somehow involves beer and currywurst.”"

Mulcair suggested that the oilsands need to be better regulated. He was villified as being anti-Alberta for this reason, as is anybody who suggests that the oilsands need to be better regulated. So how does he get away with the double-talk of on the one hand, using the corporate media talking points for partisan gain, while on the other hand taking the exact same position for which the corporate media will villify people?

Sounds look dirty campaigning to me. Meades should call on Turner to stick to the high road. Nobody can question Meades dedication to Calgary with the work he does with Vibrant Communities.

jerrym

The following biographical comment may help to understand Elizabeth May's attitude towards the NDP. This was several years before she became a senior advisor to the Mulroney government. 

"In 1980, disillusioned with the federal election sparked by the loss of confidence vote on Prime Minister's budget, May launched a political party to raise environment and anti-nuclear issues. The party, dubbed "the Small Party" and based on the ideas in E. F. Schumacher's book, Small is Beautiful, ran 12 candidates in 6 provinces, in the 1980 federal election. They made no pretense of attempting to win seats, calling the effort a “beau geste” to raise awareness." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_May)

She is a classic conservative focused on achieving small government, while the problems generated by climate change require local, provincial or state, national and international government actions on a wide range of issues to prevent or mitigate the effects of global warming.

jerrym

An all-candidates debate in the Victoria riding helped outline the difference between the candidates. The comments in bold about marijuana are both humourous and serious.

"About a dozen of the 200 people turned away at the door gathered around open windows to hear the four major candidates answer a hodgepodge of audience questions for two-and-a-half hours. In attendance were Donald Galloway (Green), Dale Gann (Conservative), Murray Rankin (NDP) and Paul Summerville (Liberal). Art Lowe of the Libertarian Party and Philip Ney of the Christian Heritage Party were absent, although all candidates were extended an invitation, said organizer and moderator Marg Gardiner.

After opening remarks, the moderator, Marg Gardiner, launched into the first hot-button issue of the election: the Capital Region's $783-million secondary sewage treatment project. "It's unacceptable to pour raw sewage into the Strait of Juan de Fuca," Gann said. "When this community said it was a priority, our government stepped up to the plate and brought their third (of the funding)." "It's time to get on with it," Rankin said. Summerville, the only candidate outright opposed to the current project, said the decision to implement secondary sewage treatment is "based on image, not science." He compared the underground pipe system that would connect Clover Point, a wastewater treatment plant at Macaulay Point and a biosolids centre at Hartland landfill to a "mini-Enbridge pipeline in our own backyard." Galloway took a measured approach to sewage treatment considerations, saying any decisions need to be based on scientific fact. He does believe the current plan is not the right plan.

The most emotional moment of the night came when candidates were asked about the recently inked Canada-China Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement. The agreement has been criticized for its 31-year contract that allows Chinese investment in Canadian companies, and for its secret arbitration process in the event of international lawsuits. Gann was booed by several audience members when he said the agreement equally protects Canadian rights. "This is the most dangerous agreement that has been signed by a Canadian government," Galloway said to applause. Summerville said he believes the Harper government "panicked" by signing the agreement.

 Rankin agreed the agreement was not reciprocal and said "we must find a way to stop this."

 The candidates also discussed cruise ship and inner harbour traffic, women's rights, education and the need for a national housing strategy. 

The MP-hopefuls were also asked about the successful vote earlier this week to legalize marijuana possession in the U.S. states of Washington and Colorado.

In what was either a moment of inspiration or panic, Conservative Party candidate Dale Gann asked the 200-plus room of attendees how many of them supported legalizing marijuana. About 95 per cent of the audience raised their hands. "Personally, as a father, I don't want my kid sitting around smoking marijuana," Gann responded. "But as your representative, I'm supposed to carry that to Ottawa."

NDP candidate Murray Rankin said current laws result in a "waste of human potential, when so many young people have criminal records for small amounts of marijuana." Rankin said the NDP would immediately amend the Criminal Code to allow for possession of small amounts of weed. He added there needs to be an "adult conversation" about taxation and regulation of the substance.

Liberal candidate Paul Summerville highlighted the potential revenue that could make its way into government hands with proper taxation and regulation. He said the war on drugs is a failed attempt and that science matters when it comes to public policy. "It's estimated B.C. would raise $2 billion from the taxation of marijuana," he said. "Instead of handing it over to criminals, let's hand it over to government." Donald Galloway of the Green Party said the focus shouldn't be on "making money off drugs and drug use." Instead, regulation should focus on public health policies that educate and promote healthy living." It is a health problem that is smoked like tobacco," he said of marijuana, adding there needs to be a rethink of federal drug policy."

 http://www.vicnews.com/news/178158041.html

 

nicky

Here is a nice clip of Tom Mulcair addressing a rally yesterday for the Durham by-election.

 

http://www.facebook.com/LarryOConnorNDP/posts/552239838135814

 

Among other good lines Tom asks for $64 contributions to Larry O'Connor's campaign because it will only cost $16 after the tax rebate, which is only the cost of an orange juice.

addictedtomyipod

It is so great to see Tom supporting his candidates in the by-elections.  He will be making an appearance in Victoria on Monday the 12th.  

The feeling on the ground now is that NDP will take the riding and Cons second place.  Just like the last election.

 

Thanks for posting the link to the debate jerrym.  I'm surprised at the Green candidate, what's his name?, response to the maryjane question.  Sounds so Conservative to me and isn't what I expected.

Ippurigakko

u mean Virginia Ervin ? she is green candidate in Durham... or Donald Galloway in BC?

jerrym

addictedtomyipod wrote:

I'm surprised at the Green candidate, what's his name?, response to the maryjane question.  Sounds so Conservative to me and isn't what I expected.

His name is Donald Galloway. You're right [or should I say left], he sounds so Conservative. His focus on marijuana as "health problem that is smoked like tobacco" sounds Conservative. Despite the fact that Victoria is dumping the raw sewage of 300,000 into the ocean, his proposal is to do nothing. Below is a quotation from his own website on the issue.

"Let’s try to simplify the Victoria Sewage Problem by stating clearly what’s at stake.

We should start with the science.  Dr. Tom Pedersen, a highly respected oceanographer at the Pacific Institute of Climate Solutions tells us categorically that the currents, temperatures and other aspects of the Juan de Fuca Strait render it unique. We do not face the same sewage disposal problems as other communities because Nature plays a different role breaking down the organic particles.

With one important qualification (to which I will return) he tells us that the treatment of human sewage is a non-problem because Nature is on our side and primary measures are in place. Until we hear compelling counter-evidence, we should believe him."

http://donaldgalloway.ca/blogs/2012/10/07/green-approach-sewage-treatment

 

 

 

David Young

nicky wrote:

Here is a nice clip of Tom Mulcair addressing a rally yesterday for the Durham by-election.

 

http://www.facebook.com/LarryOConnorNDP/posts/552239838135814

 

Among other good lines Tom asks for $64 contributions to Larry O'Connor's campaign because it will only cost $16 after the tax rebate, which is only the cost of an orange juice.

Will it be put up on YouTube for those of us who refuse to do the 'Facebook' thing?

 

jerrym

jerrym wrote:

In what was either a moment of inspiration or panic, Conservative Party candidate Dale Gann asked the 200-plus room of attendees how many of them supported legalizing marijuana. About 95 per cent of the audience raised their hands. 

If nothing else, the Victoria byelection has accomplished one thing. The above quote from a newspaper report on an all-candidates meeting where more than 200 people attended gives the lie to the stereotype that 100% of BCers are potheads.

jerrym

Acrimony is breaking out in the Conservative camp in Calgary Centre between some Wildrose and Progressive Conservative followers during the November 26th byelection. This is one of the principal causes of the increase in Liberal vote as some PCs, feeling homeless, shift to the other conservative party in the race. They also see Harper's Ottawa crowd as dominating the Conservative election process. In other words, an increase in Liberal support in Calgary Centre should not be read as a result of Trudeaumania but as an example of Red Tories shifting toward is now their more natural home - the Liberals.

"Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt won her party’s nomination vote more than two months ago, but with the Nov. 26 byelection looming, some Tories aren’t happy.

“I’m not sure they want the progressives in their party,” said Pat Moore, a longtime Conservative who is now supporting Liberal Harvey Locke. Moore’s comments are noteworthy because past Conservative MPs in the inner-city riding — Harvie Andre, Joe Clark and Lee Richardson — all could count on the backing of Moore and her husband, prominent Calgary oilman Sherrold Moore. The stalwart Conservative couple has volunteered and raised funds for provincial and federal Tory candidates for decades, and Sherrold Moore was an early backer and close adviser to former PC premier Ralph Klein. But the Moores supported other candidates in the Tory nomination vote in August and say they’re troubled by what they describe as an Ottawa-directed, top-down nomination process — along with the final selection of Crockatt. “I’m a Progressive Conservative and I wanted a more progressive candidate,” Pat Moore said. “If this is the kind of candidate Calgary Centre wants, I don’t belong there.”

In Alberta, a family feud between conservatives has boiled for years and was on full display during the spring provincial election, as many federal Conservatives threw their support behind Danielle Smith’s Wildrose party over Alison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives.

Crockatt herself has spoken about the squabbling. In a TV interview in her role as a political commentator a few days before the April provincial election, she said the two small-c conservative parties “are in the middle of this major divorce.”

She said the provincial race was one between Smith’s “blue conservatives” and the “left-of-centre, Redford conservatives — they call her the red Tories,” who “are sort of a big-spending, big-government solution.”

Crockatt herself has spoken about the squabbling. In a TV interview in her role as a political commentator a few days before the April provincial election, she said the two small-c conservative parties “are in the middle of this major divorce.”

She said the provincial race was one between Smith’s “blue conservatives” and the “left-of-centre, Redford conservatives — they call her the red Tories,” who “are sort of a big-spending, big-government solution.” ...

The NDP’s Dan Meades and the Green party also hope many in the political diverse riding will come to their sides. ...

Former Redford chief of staff and political strategist Stephen Carter — who acknowledges he doesn’t want Crockatt to win because “she’s mean to me,” but said he’s not actively campaigning against her — believes unhappy Conservatives are more likely to stay home on voting day.

“Right now, most Conservatives are still with Joan,” Carter said. “Some Conservatives are just sitting on the sidelines, watching.”

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Provincial+conservative+rift+spreads+f...

jerrym

The NDP is making the Nexen takeover by a state-owned Chinese firm a major issue in the Calgary Centre byelection. Harper, of course, is delaying any announcement of his government's decision on the issue until after the election to avoid any electoral fallout in this and other byelections on November 26th. 

"The federal NDP waded into the heart of the oilpatch Thursday, accusing the Conservative government of delaying its decision on the proposed $15.1-billion takeover of Nexen Inc. by a state-owned Chinese company to push it past the upcoming byelection in Calgary Centre.

NDP candidate Dan Meades — accompanied by Opposition natural resources critic Peter Julian — said CNOOC’s bid for Calgary-based Nexen is ringing alarm bells in the city.

"This issue comes up a lot and what the people of Calgary are asking is, ‘What is the government hiding?’ " said Meades, standing outside of Nexen’s head office in downtown Calgary. 'Thousands of jobs are at stake as well as the resource-based economy we all benefit from.'

Last week, the federal government prolonged the review process of the deal under the Investment Canada Act to Dec. 10.

Julian, MP for Burnaby-New Westminster, said the Harper government is trying to 'rubber stamp' the takeover. 'There are concerns about CNOOC’s human rights record, there are concerns about the possible loss of head office jobs here in Calgary. There is concern about CNOOC’s own description of itself as a foreign policy arm of the (Chinese) government,' he said. ...

Bruce Foster, policy studies professor at Mount Royal University, said the Nexen deal is of huge importance to Calgary as the “epicentre” of Canada’s energy industry. But he suspects it likely won’t be a major issue in the Nov. 26 byelection, 'especially with the Harper government being somewhat equivocal about it.'

'As the issue itself is still in play in some ways, this works well for Crockatt because you don’t really have to address it,' said Foster."

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/dubs+Nexen+takeover+issue+Calgary+...

 

jerrym

A Durham regional newspaper, The Scugog Standard, asked Durham byelection candidates on why people should vote for them. Their responses are quite revealing about their skill levels and political beliefs.

The failure of the Green candidate, Virginia Ervin, to provide any comment perhaps says more than anything I can write.

The NDP's Larry O'Connor's comments show him to clearly have the most distinguished previous record and a sense of purpose based on issues. "I have been involved in the Durham community for most of my life. I chose to get involved because one of the things I truly believe is that as residents of a community, each one of us has a stake in our community’s success and its ability to succeed. This is why for most of my life; I have chosen to be involved in public service. I have been elected six times to represent the interests of my fellow community members. For five years, I had the honor of serving the riding of Durham-York at Queen’s Park as its Member of Provincial Parliament. In 1997, I was elected as a regional councilor for the Durham region, a position I held for the next four consecutive terms. In 2006, I was elected Mayor for the Township of Brock and held this position for another five years. Prior to and during my career in public service, I worked as an employee at the Oshawa General Motors plant. During my thirty years of employment at the plant, I was always heavily involved with the local United Way campaign. To this day, I continue to seek out ways of doing things better. As past president of both the Durham and Brock Non-Profit Housing Corporations, I work with others to find ways to make life better for those struggling to find an affordable home."

The Conservative candidate's, Erin O'Toole, own comments offer little in the way of experience or policy. "I am very proud of my local roots. I grew up in Bowmanville and Port Perry, enjoying the local schools and activities. After graduating from Bowmanville high school, I joined the military and attended Royal Military College. Upon graduation, I was commissioned as an officer in the Air Force. My military service was invaluable to my development as a leader and citizen. Following my time in uniform, I studied and practiced law. As a lawyer, I have worked in the private sector advising businesses – both large and small – on issues ranging from energy, to manufacturing, the environment and economic development. I will use this experience to increase economic opportunity in Durham. Building a strong community will be one of my key priorities as your Member of Parliament. I have been proud to work alongside others on a range of projects, including as co-chair of the River Runs Through Us Gala to support the Bowmanville Creek, with the Rotary Club to organize the Clarington Youth and Community Leadership Dinners and as a Director and Co-founder of True Patriot Love Foundation, raising over $13 million for members of the Canadian Forces and their families. I think it is time for a fresh, strong voice from our community to represent us in Ottawa. I pledge to be accountable, accessible and professional as your MP and look forward to working with and for you."

The Liberal candidate, Grant Humes, seems even more vague, vacuous, and based on being a so-called businessman job creator without any evidence to support this assertion."It was a very short while ago that I didn’t know what being a candidate meant. In last year’s election I ran (and lost) and never expected we would have a by election in the riding. You might be wondering why I’m putting my name forward again and why I would run in a race where winning means joining the political zoo in Ottawa. I’m running again because I have five sons and daughters and I see the future for our young people slipping away. Unemployment is up in Durham compared to the rest of the province. Conservative economic policies aren’t working. For 31 years, I worked at the Toronto Board of Trade, I know what it takes to create jobs, I’ve worked with job creators and small business my entire life. I truly do believe if we have a local jobs champion we can grow opportunity here in Durham. At the same time, we need a strong local voice to stand up for our community and what’s right. I don’t want to be an Ottawa voice for Durham, I want to be our voice up in Ottawa. Our Government is on the wrong track not just on the economy but also on respecting our Veterans. They killed the Veterans Disability Pensions and have spent almost a million dollars fighting our Veterans in court. I hope we meet soon, whether on your doorstep, at a debate, or on the street. I want to hear from you – and I want to represent you and your values, truly. I will be that strong voice if you give me the chance."

http://www.thescugogstandard.ca/news/2012/novemberr2012%20/nov8-12/candi...

adma

jerrym wrote:
The Conservative candidate's, Erin O'Toole, own comments offer little in the way of experience or policy.

His comments offer little; but his bloodline (son of the current MPP) offers plenty.  And when it comes to grassroots Conservative "reach" in Durham, the name O'Toole carries more clout than the name Oda--just by way of reminder.

Of course, bloodline didn't help Domenic LeBlanc vs the NDP in his first election run in 1997.  Also just by way of reminder.

addictedtomyipod

This from Liberal candidate Humes in Durham...

 

' I’m running again because I have five sons and daughters and I see the future for our young people slipping away. Unemployment is up in Durham compared to the rest of the province.'

 

It appears that the Liberal strategy is to go after young voters promising jobs.  That is one of the biggest worry with soon to be grads, as there is appears to be little opportunity out there for them.

I heard today that Trudeau is coming to the University of Victoria to help out the Sommerville campaign there.  He clearly has already been annointed leader of the Liberal party as they did not send Bob Rae.  The student population love Trudeau, which is beyond my comprehension.  It doesn't seem to matter what he does or has done in the past to get this blind faith, he just does.  

I also attended the Tom Mulcair gathering at the convention centre last night and it was a full, energetic, bursting at the seams crowd.  Murray Rankin delivered a great speech and there is a lot of excitement about this excellent candidate in Victoria.

Brachina

Mulcair twitted an hour ago the they had a great rally in Victoria last night and will be meeting Dan Meade at Melrose Cafe in Calagary Centre at 7:30pm today. I don't do twitter, I got the info off the NDP website twitter feed thingy.

NorthReport

Leaders flock to Victoria as byelection race heats up

 

NDP leader Thomas Mulcair rallied an overflow crowd of about 400 people at Victoria’s Conference Centre Monday night, pumping up volunteers and singing the praises of candidate Murray Rankin, whom he called a “strong voice for sustainable development.” The official Opposition leader remains in town today to talk up his candidate.
Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Leaders+flock+Victoria+byelection+race+heats/7537489/story.html#ixzz2C9J47Ji7

 

 

NorthReport

Nothing against Rankin but.....!!!

Political shifts unlikely when three ridings go to polls Nov. 26 in federal byelections

In Victoria, NDP MP Denise Savoie, a schoolteacher and former city councillor, retired Aug. 31.

Interestingly, here, it’s the makeup of the candidate roster that is inspiring controversy, with four “middle-aged white guys,” all linked to the University of Victoria, vying to replace her.

“The idea of a byelection,” writes blogger B.C. Iconoclast, “where three of the four major party candidates are white male baby boomer UVic professors approaching retirement age seems odd. ... This is something that should concern us.”

The blogger asks, where are all the women, youth and working-class political aspirants? They certainly aren’t in this race.

  http://www.vancouversun.com/Barbara+Yaffe+Political+shifts+unlikely+when+three+ridings+polls+federal+byelections/7537349/story.html#ixzz2C9K0b82V

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