Three Byelections Called

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Centrist

Forum Research shows some interesting shifts in Calgary-Centre after their poll from just two weeks earlier:

Con: 32% (-16%)

Lib: 30% (+2%)

Green: 23% (+12%)

NDP: 12% (+4%)

This potentially could be a horse race. Too bad Tom is not having much of an impact yet.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/race-tightening-in-calgary-centre-by-election/article5267073/

Stockholm

The full Forum results are here

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/1560...

 

The NDP is still at 47% in Victoria and the Greens are second with Liberal and Conservative support way down (I think the Conservatives may do better than that - there are a lot of mansions full of Col. Blimp types in Oak bay)

Durham has the NDP in second place now at 26% - which is actually very good for the NDP in a barren place like Durham.

David Young

Stockholm wrote:

The full Forum results are here

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/1560...

 

The NDP is still at 47% in Victoria and the Greens are second with Liberal and Conservative support way down (I think the Conservatives may do better than that - there are a lot of mansions full of Col. Blimp types in Oak bay)

Durham has the NDP in second place now at 26% - which is actually very good for the NDP in a barren place like Durham.

I tried to use this link, but was unable to.

The level of NDP support in Durham shouldn't come as that big of a surprise. 

The voters want quality candidates who won't embarass themselves, with the possible exception of Rob Anders in Calgary West.

Give Tom Mulcair 70+ more candidates of the calibre of Larry O'Connor in 2015, and watch what happens!

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Does anyone want to try and convince me that a LPC victory in Calgary wouldn't be a complete and total disaster for the NDP. Especially if the Libs are able to say something like "look, the Red Tories are ready to vote for us. We can beat Harper. You HAVE to vote for us". Personally, what is going in Calgary has me worried. Worst yet, I can't understand why the NDP and Mulcair aren't more aggressively and deliberately trying to explain his "Dutch Disease" comments. I think the NDP is doing a horrible job here; this is very dangerous and we should be very, very worried.

nicky

Arthur, I am more concerned about the Greens than the Liberals. Although the Liberals may be in contention in Calgary they are tanking in the other two seats.

 

The Green vote has grown significantly in Calgary and Victoria. It is not nearly enough to win but may help them maintain a vote-splitting presence in the next federal election whch once again will deliver an unearned windfall of seats to the Cons.

West Coast Greeny

Durham

Party // Elxn // 30th // 12th

CPC // 54.5 // 46 // 42

NDP // 21 // 24 // 26

LIB // 18 // 20 // 22

GRN // 05 // 06 // 07

 

Victoria

NDP // 51 // 47 // 47

GRN // 11 // 20 // 26

LIB // 14 // 16 // 14

CPC // 24 // 16 // 12

 

 

Calgary Centre

Party // Elxn // 30th // 13th

CPC // 58 // 48 // 32 (Wow)

LIB // 18 // 28 // 30

GRN // 10 // 11 // 23

NDP // 15 // 08 // 12 

 

For context, I'm more an environmental issues anti-Harper type, than a blind Green Party partisan, but I want to see more Greens in parliament, and these byelections have got my attention now. Two ridings with the Greens polling over 20%, and neither of these candidates are Elizabeth May. I think that party has figured out a way to survive in the FPTP system.

Calgary has quitetly and steadily become a more progressive city. Unwilling to elect cranks from Wildrose, in love with centre-right types (that won't touch the oil sands) like Redford, electing a handful of Alberta Liberals, even willing to plop for progressives like Nenshi. With the right message and campaign, a Liberal or New Democrat or Green can get elected in the urban ridings of Calgary Centre and Calgary Centre-North. 

Turner is running an unusually (for the Greens) negative campaign in Calgary Centre, but it's clearly working VERY well. Hopefully we don't see the Conservatives come up the middle to win with just 30% of the vote. With the Conservative and Liberal vote so low in Victoria that vote splitting is absolutely no issue, the potential at least exists for Galloway to contend for Victoria. I'd put the odds of the Greens winning either seat at 5 and 35% respectively. 

Ippurigakko

Last federal vote:

Calgary-Centre
CON <- CON 61%, DidntVote 38%, GRN 15%, BQ 15%, OTH 12%, NDP 6%, LIB 2%
LIB <- LIB 68%, NDP 23%, GRN 17%, OTH 17%, CON 16%, DV 15%, BQ 9%
GRN <- GRN 66%, BQ 40%, NDP 34%, OTH 31%, LIB 20%, DV 17%, CON 13%,
NDP <- NDP 36%, BQ 25%, DV 17%, LIB 11%, OTH 10%, CON 6%, GRN 2%

Durham
CON <- CON 72%, BQ 26%, DV 23%, GRN 23%, NDP 17%, LIB 15%, OTH 0%
NDP <- NDP 64%, DV 40%, LIB 24%, CON 15%, GRN 14%, OTH 9%, BQ 0%
LIB <- LIB 59%, DV 29%, BQ 34%, OTH 14%, GRN 12%, NDP 11%, CON 8%
GRN <- GRN 49%, DV 8%, BQ 7%, NDP 7%, CON 3%, LIB 2%, OTH 0%

Victoria
NDP <- NDP 71%, DV 37%, BQ 36%, LIB 30%, OTH 28%, GRN 23%, CON 13%
GRN <- GRN 69%, DV 25%, NDP 22%, CON 17%, LIB 12%, OTH/DV 0%
LIB <- LIB 54%, DV 29%, OTH 21%, CON 8%, NDP 7%, GRN 5%, BQ 0%
CON <- CON 61%, BQ 32%, OTH 18%, DV 9%, LIB 4%, GRN 3%, NDP 1%

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

nicky wrote:

Arthur, I am more concerned about the Greens than the Liberals. Although the Liberals may be in contention in Calgary they are tanking in the other two seats.

 

The Green vote has grown significantly in Calgary and Victoria. It is not nearly enough to win but may help them maintain a vote-splitting presence in the next federal election whch once again will deliver an unearned windfall of seats to the Cons.

I agree its worrisome, and the MSM's free ride to May doesn't help.

adma

Stockholm wrote:
Durham has the NDP in second place now at 26% - which is actually very good for the NDP in a barren place like Durham.

Or even more to the point, 42% is fairly mediocre for a present-day Conservative stronghold w/a son-of-the-MPP running supposedly w/o Bev Oda's baggage.

But I am concerned about the evident continuing opposition deadlock, i.e. O'Connor may be raising the share, but he isn't galvanizing the opposition, at least not yet...

jerrym

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Does anyone want to try and convince me that a LPC victory in Calgary wouldn't be a complete and total disaster for the NDP. Especially if the Libs are able to say something like "look, the Red Tories are ready to vote for us. We can beat Harper. You HAVE to vote for us". Personally, what is going in Calgary has me worried. Worst yet, I can't understand why the NDP and Mulcair aren't more aggressively and deliberately trying to explain his "Dutch Disease" comments. I think the NDP is doing a horrible job here; this is very dangerous and we should be very, very worried.

Arthur, I think the decline in Con support and increase in Lib support are directly related and a local phenomenon. Many of the traditional Progressive Conservative voters in the riding are unhappy with Crockatt's Wildrose ultra-right positions and have shifted to the Liberals as the party more closely allied with their political viewpoint.  As I noted above:

"Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt won her party’s nomination vote more than two months ago, but with the Nov. 26 byelection looming, some Tories aren’t happy.

'I’m not sure they want the progressives in their party,' said Pat Moore, a longtime Conservative who is now supporting Liberal Harvey Locke. Moore’s comments are noteworthy because past Conservative MPs in the inner-city riding — Harvie Andre, Joe Clark and Lee Richardson — all could count on the backing of Moore and her husband, prominent Calgary oilman Sherrold Moore. The stalwart Conservative couple has volunteered and raised funds for provincial and federal Tory candidates for decades, and Sherrold Moore was an early backer and close adviser to former PC premier Ralph Klein. But the Moores supported other candidates in the Tory nomination vote in August and say they’re troubled by what they describe as an Ottawa-directed, top-down nomination process — along with the final selection of Crockatt. “I’m a Progressive Conservative and I wanted a more progressive candidate,” Pat Moore said. “If this is the kind of candidate Calgary Centre wants, I don’t belong there. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Provincial+conservative+rift+spreads+f...)

 

Looking overall at the results, it is clear that the Cons are down in every riding by 12 to 26% from the 2011 election results. The NDP is up in Durham, although it is still unlikely to win there. In Victoria, the NDP is at 47%, somewhat remarkable considering Rankin is replacing a highly popular incumbent, Denise Savoie, who won 51% in 2011 after sitting on city council and beating out a mayor to initially win the nomination in 2006. The Liberal support in Durham and Victoria is tied with the support they received in the 2011 election (hardly the high water mark of the Liberal Natural Governing Party) when the margin of error is taken into account. The apparent Lib surge in Calgary Centre therefore seems to be a byproduct of local infighting within the Cons.

The Greens surge in support has occurred in two of the three ridings when the margin of error is taken into account. Remember that May directed that nearly all the parties resources be focused on her during the 2011 election in order to gain a foothold in Parliament. This strategy resulted in a May becoming a MP but cost it several points in national support as Green candidates in other ridings worked with very little or no resources. In three byelections, the Greens, much like the NDP when it was a third or fourth party, can focus its limited resources on these ridings and can normally expect a spike in its support. 

I suspect that after the byelections, if the results are somewhat like the recent poll, each party will proclaim they were successful and point to something in the results to support this. The Cons, assuming they win Calgary Centre and Durham, will proclaim they won the most ridings despite losing substantial support. If they win one or no ridings they will say the government loses the vast majority of byelections and once their policies are fully implemented before 2015 they will win again. The Libs will look at any improvement in Calgary Centre and say they are on the upswing towards becoming the Loyal Opposition (forgetting to mention their vote hardly changed in  the other ridings. The Greens will say they have substantially increased their vote (forgetting to omit they declined in the last national election). The NDP will proclaim they won by a substantial margin in Victoria and significantly increased their vote in Durham (trying to say as little as possible about Calgary Centre).

What is the meaning of all this? Recall that in the 2010 byelection, which were only months before the 2011 election, the NDP generally did poorly in % support and even lost a longtime Winnipeg riding. I remember Peter Mansbridge continually taunting Jack Layton that night on the poor showing of the NDP. Six months later, the NDP had by far its greatest results in both ridings won and % support. While byelections can sometimes be harbingers of major changes to come, they can often be decided by factors long forgotten in the next federal election and have little effect on the results, especially when the election is three years away. The path to victory is rarely straight up but it does require ongoing effort when results are not the ideal outcome.

 

Aristotleded24

Jerry, I'd also add a couple of other things. In Calgary-Centre, the NDP really has no ground game to speak of. It is not represented at all provincially, and whatever "progressive" opposition to Allison Redford is represented there is represented by Liberals, so naturally they would have a stronger presence. The Greens have also out-polled the NDP federally in Calgary for a long time, so what we're seeing is not so unusual, and it's not surprising that it took the NDP so long to find someone. And Mulcair actually went out there, so that says he's serious about doing some groundwork. As for Victoria, it is right next door to Saanich-Gulf Islands, May's seat, so naturally there will be some spill-over effect from there in terms of popular support.

Besides, there is still time. Remember just a few weeks ago the polls suggested it would be a Conservative lock. Who knows how volatile things may get? Remember when a guy by the name of Tom Mulcair made a long-shot run in a Montreal riding with no history of ever going NDP?

jerrym

I agree that things can change rapidly in elections (witness the 2011 election where the conventional wisdom at the start was the NDP would have trouble keeping all its current MPs let alone have a large surge). However, my answer was to Arthur's concerns about the polling results and therefore I was saying if the byelection results were some reasonable approximation of these still early polls, he should not overinterpret their meaning. 

I also feel that the NDP would have improved their poll and byelection results if they had recruited and nominated their candidates in Durham and Calgary Centre well before the announcement of the byelections date rather than after this date, as this would have given them more time to become better known to the public. For example, in BC, David Eby nearly beat, losing by only 71 votes, Premier Clark in a provincial byelection called in May 2011. The provincial party and Eby both feel he would have beat her if he had had more time to campaign. They are rectifying this for the upcoming May 2013 provincial by having already nominated Eby, a full six months before the provincial election.   

Aristotleded24

Of course, to have a candidate, you would have to find a candidate first, and that isn't always easy. I think the NDP is quite fortunate to have a candidate like Meades run in Calgary.

Ippurigakko

jerrym wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Does anyone want to try and convince me that a LPC victory in Calgary wouldn't be a complete and total disaster for the NDP. Especially if the Libs are able to say something like "look, the Red Tories are ready to vote for us. We can beat Harper. You HAVE to vote for us". Personally, what is going in Calgary has me worried. Worst yet, I can't understand why the NDP and Mulcair aren't more aggressively and deliberately trying to explain his "Dutch Disease" comments. I think the NDP is doing a horrible job here; this is very dangerous and we should be very, very worried.

Arthur, I think the decline in Con support and increase in Lib support are directly related and a local phenomenon. Many of the traditional Progressive Conservative voters in the riding are unhappy with Crockatt's Wildrose ultra-right positions and have shifted to the Liberals as the party more closely allied with their political viewpoint.  As I noted above:

"Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt won her party’s nomination vote more than two months ago, but with the Nov. 26 byelection looming, some Tories aren’t happy.

'I’m not sure they want the progressives in their party,' said Pat Moore, a longtime Conservative who is now supporting Liberal Harvey Locke. Moore’s comments are noteworthy because past Conservative MPs in the inner-city riding — Harvie Andre, Joe Clark and Lee Richardson — all could count on the backing of Moore and her husband, prominent Calgary oilman Sherrold Moore. The stalwart Conservative couple has volunteered and raised funds for provincial and federal Tory candidates for decades, and Sherrold Moore was an early backer and close adviser to former PC premier Ralph Klein. But the Moores supported other candidates in the Tory nomination vote in August and say they’re troubled by what they describe as an Ottawa-directed, top-down nomination process — along with the final selection of Crockatt. “I’m a Progressive Conservative and I wanted a more progressive candidate,” Pat Moore said. “If this is the kind of candidate Calgary Centre wants, I don’t belong there. (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Provincial+conservative+rift+spreads+f...)

 

Looking overall at the results, it is clear that the Cons are down in every riding by 12 to 26% from the 2011 election results. The NDP is up in Durham, although it is still unlikely to win there. In Victoria, the NDP is at 47%, somewhat remarkable considering Rankin is replacing a highly popular incumbent, Denise Savoie, who won 51% in 2011 after sitting on city council and beating out a mayor to initially win the nomination in 2006. The Liberal support in Durham and Victoria is tied with the support they received in the 2011 election (hardly the high water mark of the Liberal Natural Governing Party) when the margin of error is taken into account. The apparent Lib surge in Calgary Centre therefore seems to be a byproduct of local infighting within the Cons.

The Greens surge in support has occurred in two of the three ridings when the margin of error is taken into account. Remember that May directed that nearly all the parties resources be focused on her during the 2011 election in order to gain a foothold in Parliament. This strategy resulted in a May becoming a MP but cost it several points in national support as Green candidates in other ridings worked with very little or no resources. In three byelections, the Greens, much like the NDP when it was a third or fourth party, can focus its limited resources on these ridings and can normally expect a spike in its support. 

I suspect that after the byelections, if the results are somewhat like the recent poll, each party will proclaim they were successful and point to something in the results to support this. The Cons, assuming they win Calgary Centre and Durham, will proclaim they won the most ridings despite losing substantial support. If they win one or no ridings they will say the government loses the vast majority of byelections and once their policies are fully implemented before 2015 they will win again. The Libs will look at any improvement in Calgary Centre and say they are on the upswing towards becoming the Loyal Opposition (forgetting to mention their vote hardly changed in  the other ridings. The Greens will say they have substantially increased their vote (forgetting to omit they declined in the last national election). The NDP will proclaim they won by a substantial margin in Victoria and significantly increased their vote in Durham (trying to say as little as possible about Calgary Centre).

What is the meaning of all this? Recall that in the 2010 byelection, which were only months before the 2011 election, the NDP generally did poorly in % support and even lost a longtime Winnipeg riding. I remember Peter Mansbridge continually taunting Jack Layton that night on the poor showing of the NDP. Six months later, the NDP had by far its greatest results in both ridings won and % support. While byelections can sometimes be harbingers of major changes to come, they can often be decided by factors long forgotten in the next federal election and have little effect on the results, especially when the election is three years away. The path to victory is rarely straight up but it does require ongoing effort when results are not the ideal outcome.

 

 

but harper is wildrose right wing too.... if progressive conservative still vote for harper, it is weird to me.

Brachina

Tom Mulcair on the Calagary Centre bielection, Tory deficit, and the economy.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/Leader+Mulcair+slams+Tories+ov...

The Tory response is bullshit, the Auto industry is not doing well, not if your an Autoworker.

felixr

Calgary Centre is not competitive, just difficult to poll. In the end the Tories will still win by a comfortable margin, just less than usual.

NorthReport

How quickly we forget that Wild Rose was going to win a majority according to the pollsters in the last election.  Laughing

What anyone is  paying any attention to polling in Alberta is beyond me. 

adma

I really still have my doubts about the skepticism re this poll--unless, here in Babble-onia, the skepticism is based upon the Liberals followed by the Greens, and not the NDP, being the primary contenders...

theleftyinvestor

Ippurigakko wrote:

Last federal vote:

Calgary-Centre
CON <- CON 61%, DidntVote 38%, GRN 15%, BQ 15%, OTH 12%, NDP 6%, LIB 2%
LIB <- LIB 68%, NDP 23%, GRN 17%, OTH 17%, CON 16%, DV 15%, BQ 9%
GRN <- GRN 66%, BQ 40%, NDP 34%, OTH 31%, LIB 20%, DV 17%, CON 13%,
NDP <- NDP 36%, BQ 25%, DV 17%, LIB 11%, OTH 10%, CON 6%, GRN 2%

Durham
CON <- CON 72%, BQ 26%, DV 23%, GRN 23%, NDP 17%, LIB 15%, OTH 0%
NDP <- NDP 64%, DV 40%, LIB 24%, CON 15%, GRN 14%, OTH 9%, BQ 0%
LIB <- LIB 59%, DV 29%, BQ 34%, OTH 14%, GRN 12%, NDP 11%, CON 8%
GRN <- GRN 49%, DV 8%, BQ 7%, NDP 7%, CON 3%, LIB 2%, OTH 0%

Victoria
NDP <- NDP 71%, DV 37%, BQ 36%, LIB 30%, OTH 28%, GRN 23%, CON 13%
GRN <- GRN 69%, DV 25%, NDP 22%, CON 17%, LIB 12%, OTH/DV 0%
LIB <- LIB 54%, DV 29%, OTH 21%, CON 8%, NDP 7%, GRN 5%, BQ 0%
CON <- CON 61%, BQ 32%, OTH 18%, DV 9%, LIB 4%, GRN 3%, NDP 1%

What in the world do those numbers mean... and what does the BQ have to do with any of these ridings??

felixr

Adma, I think the poll underestimates Conservative support, otherwise it is an accurate picture of the opposition parties.

theleftyinvestor

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Nenshi+puts+pressure+Crockatt+...

Nenshi puts pressure on Crockatt to attend city's byelection forum 

War of words heats up over Calgary Centre 

By James Wood, Calgary Herald; With Files From Sherri Zick-efoose, Calgary Herald

As Mayor Naheed Nenshi turned up the heat Friday on federal Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt, political analysts say the mayor's intervention could hurt the Tory campaign in the Calgary Centre bye-lection.

Just returned from a Federation of Canadian Municipalities meeting in Ottawa, Nenshi again called out Crockatt over her plans not to attend a city-sponsored forum for candidates in the Nov. 26 federal bye-lection.

Crockatt has committed to attend a debate today, but won't be taking part in the Cities Matter candidates forum taking place on Sunday.

Nenshi, who in a Herald opinion piece had already appealed for Crockatt to participate in the event, told reporters at City Hall he had attended 34 different forums when he ran for mayor in 2010.

"I think that citizen forums are a terrific way to talk to a large group of citizens, to get your message out and to answer questions," he said.

"So if I were (Crockatt's) political strategist, I certainly wouldn't miss this. She'll make her own decision.

"I just hope that it's not because she doesn't want to answer questions about the future of Calgary."

Crockatt was sticking to her guns Friday, saying prior commitments prevented her from attending the city-sponsored forum.

However, the former Herald journalist said she had no problem with the comments from Nenshi, who is "doing his job as the mayor."

"We have to stay on our game and the mayor may love us to attend his forums, just like many other people might like. But you have to decide as a campaign where your priorities are," she said.

"We really believe that door-knocking is the most effective way of connecting with voters and we need to run a campaign to win, as the mayor appreciates."

Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt said Nenshi's words hit home because they play on existing criticism of the Tory candidate.

Crockatt has come under fire from her opponents in the race for not attending previ-ous forums. Aside from today's debate, she has also committed to participate in at least one other forum, on Nov.24.

"He's putting a lot of heat on her, without a doubt," Bratt said of the mayor's comments.

"Particularly with the nature of Calgary Centre, if you looked at the results of the 2010 (civic) election, that was a major area for Nenshi."

Bratt said he doubted the intervention carried any risk for the mayor, given his popularity in the city, but it could be a problem for Crockatt, who's trying to keep the seat vacated by Conservative MP Lee Richardson last spring.

Calgary has been solidly Tory-blue federally, although Crockatt's campaign has had to deal with provincial divisions between Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party, as well as well-organized campaigns by the NDP, Liberals and Green party.

Other candidates in the Calgary Centre race are the NDP's Dan Meades, Liberal Harvey Locke, the Green party's Chris Turner, Libertarian Tony Pra-shad and independent Antoni Grochowski.

University of Calgary political scientist Doreen Barrie said Nenshi's involvement is a another potential headache for the Tory candidate. "More generally, this whole issue of Joan Crockatt not attending forums, it looks bad for her," she said.

Sunday's forum is focused on urban issues and Nenshi's wish list includes Ottawa committing to long-term, predictable cash for infrastructure. The first-term mayor said the Harper government's cancellation a year ago of almost $100 million in federal money for four new suburban recreation centres in Calgary "really highlighted the problem in the system now."

When asked whether he was taking particular aim at the Conservatives, Nenshi said: "They are the government, after all ... but I want to hear from everybody."

Crockatt reiterated the Conservative government deserves credit on the municipal funding issue by making permanent the gas tax transfer to cities.

adma

felixr wrote:
Adma, I think the poll underestimates Conservative support, otherwise it is an accurate picture of the opposition parties.

Y'know, I still wouldn't jump the gun re "underestimating Conservative support", much as I wouldn't have jumped the gun on Kitchener-Waterloo polls supposedly "overestimating NDP support".  And, again, not to sound like Debater here, but I wonder if the chorus here would be different were it the NDP nosing up to Crockatt, not the Liberals.

That is, if one uses municipal and provincial voting patterns as backup, there's more "plausibility" to such a poll than a lot of you are willing to offer--Trudeau pere notwithstanding.  To the point where I'd even wonder where former "Reform miderates" like Jim Silye presently stand...

jerrym

Below is an article on the issues in the Victoria by-election from the perspective of the four main candidates. It is interesting that the Liberal candidate, Paul Sommerville, almost sounds more conservative than the Conservative on the issue of his proposal to continue dumping the raw sewage of Victoria's 300,000 citizens into the ocean until 2040. Perhaps that's why he is running in a close race with the Cons for last place. The NDP's Murray Rankin, on the other hand, focuses, on the importance of the anti-Enbridge campaign.

http://www.ctvvancouverisland.ca/2012/11/victoria-by-election-the-candid...

There will also be a forum by the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting in Victoria on the future of public broadcasting on November 20th. Not surprisingly, the Conservative candidate is the only candidate of the main parties who has not confirmed that he will attend.

http://www.friends.ca/press-release/10924

Brachina

The greens have been manipulating the polls in Calagary, so take the polls with a grain of salt.

http://albertadiary.ca/2012/11/latest-calgary-poll-results-perhaps-aided...

Sean in Ottawa

I don't mind a Green victory in Calgary.

I am concerned about a Liberal one-- if the objective is taking down Cons nationally any life in the Liberals makes that more difficult. A Green blip would not give me any concern at all.

That said I am very skeptical that the Greens could be in this. Also even if they were closer to the Cons they have in my mind less potential to increase. The best scenario for me is for the NDP to pour it on in the riding and try to pass the Liberals there -- even if they can't catch the Cons.

adma

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I don't mind a Green victory in Calgary.

I am concerned about a Liberal one-- if the objective is taking down Cons nationally any life in the Liberals makes that more difficult. A Green blip would not give me any concern at all.

Then again, the idea of the Liberals raiding the Conservative pool of voters bides well for vote splits favouring the NDP (at large, rather than in Calgary Centre per se)

theleftyinvestor

adma wrote:

Then again, the idea of the Liberals raiding the Conservative pool of voters bides well for vote splits favouring the NDP (at large, rather than in Calgary Centre per se)

Unless it leads non-committal NDP voters in swing ridings to see Liberals as the best bet against Conservatives.

addictedtomyipod

The Victoria by-election has the Greens using the sewage treatment  as a wedge issue.  Disgusting that they don't want it to go ahead as planned.  Ironic that the Green party wants to study it further, after this issue has been under discussion for 30 years. I wonder why they never engaged in this issue before the election? I guess that is a way to not take a stand but steal votes from the NDP at the same time.  Elizabeth May may just guarantee a Con victory here as she is pushing really hard for Galloway.   Galloway, BTW is the candidate there, not E. May.  I wonder if voters will go to the voting booth and wonder why her name isn't on the ballot?

Murray Rankin is by far the best candidate to send to Ottawa. His input and legal expertize on the Enbridge issue is invaluable.  The NDP from the whole region need to come together in these last few days to keep this progressive candidate front and centre.

 

Centrist

Firstly, Victoria is a slam dunk NDP win.

Last week, Tom appeared at a campaign rally at the Victoria Conference Centre before a crowd of 400, according to the Victoria Times Colonist.

Now the Victoria Times Colonist reports that the Greens also held a rally at the same Victoria Conference Centre this Monday night. But get this... 1,300 people turned out. WTF?! Who are these people and where do they come from? Just don't get it.

NorthReport

And the reason again why Victoria still does not properly treat its sewage is.......? 

For the capital of a province that prides itself on its pristine environment it seems out of step.

Stockholm

Any party that opposes a sewage treatment plant for Victoria is "full of shit"!Cool

Howard

That's hilarious! For the last several years the Greens were screaming bloody murder because the plant wasn't going to be built. Now that it's going to be built they are screaming bloody murder so that it does not get built. They did a 180 on years of policy in less than a year. Joining them in their quest is former NDP candidate and current Liberal candidate Paul Summerville. The Liberals were also in favour of the sewage plant before they were against it. In past Victoria elections the NDP (and Conservatives) were criticized for not being sufficiently in favour of the plant or not able to "deliver the goods," particularly by the Green party. The same happened/happens to NDP affiliated politicians municipally. The Green party is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO flaky! Flip-flop, flip-flop!

Howard
Howard

More good news for the Liberals:

Quote:
London Mayor Joe Fontana is facing three criminal charges relating to a federal cheque that paid the deposit on the 2005 wedding reception for his son Michael, his lawyer says.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The area most affected by the lack of a sewage treatment plant is the Olympia Peninsula and none of them get to vote. The shit doesn't back up in Victoria's harbour it flows over to the US. 

jerrym

Centrist wrote:
Firstly, Victoria is a slam dunk NDP win. Last week, Tom appeared at a campaign rally at the Victoria Conference Centre before a crowd of 400, according to the Victoria Times Colonist. Now the Victoria Times Colonist reports that the Greens also held a rally at the same Victoria Conference Centre this Monday night. But get this... 1,300 people turned out. WTF?! Who are these people and where do they come from? Just don't get it.

 

Crowds are often (though certainly not always) a function of how well organizers promote and actively solicit participation, as well as how wide and how populated an area they draw people from. I do not know the particulars of the Greens and NDP organizations of these meetings. However, part of the difference in crowd size could be how much of Vancouver Island people were invited to attend from, whether transportation such as buses were offered, whether "star" guests (such as David Suzuki) beyond party leaders were advertised to be present, etc.

Regardless of the particulars of these meetings, all indications suggest the NDP will easily win the Victoria riding.

jerrym

David McGuinty has apologized and resigned as Natural Resources critic because of his comment that some Alberta Conservative MPs are "shills" for the oil companies, are not willing to work for the national interest, and therefore should go back to Alberta in order to sit on city councils or in the Alberta legislature. 

Bob Rae, interim Liberal leader, "bluntly stated Wednesday that McGuinty’s comments could hurt the party’s chances for an upset in Calgary Centre, where polls show Liberal candidate Harvey Locke running a close second to Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt. Calgary Centre has been a Tory riding for more than 40 years." (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/mcguinty-resigns-critic-post-for-saying-m...)

The Calgary Herald reported that "Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, a Calgary member of Parliament, said Alberta Conservative MPs and likely the vast majority of Albertans find McGuinty’s comments 'deeply offensive.' " (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/national/apologizes+David+McGuinty+att...)

MP Michelle Rempel of Calgary Centre North also criticized McGuinty and the Liberals strongly today on Power and Politics.

This will likely remind Albertans of Pierre's National Energy Policy, and while Justin has tried to distance himself from it, McGuinty comments are likely going to confirm to most of them and many other westerners that the Liberals are never going to favour their interests. I think we can safely say 'Goodbye to the Liberal dream of winning Calgary Centre'.

Howard

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The area most affected by the lack of a sewage treatment plant is the Olympia Peninsula and none of them get to vote. The shit doesn't back up in Victoria's harbour it flows over to the US. 

Yet the public campaign to get a sewage plant originated and was fed by popular support in Victoria. Go figure.

West Coast Greeny

jerrym wrote:

David McGuinty has apologized and resigned as Natural Resources critic because of his comment that some Alberta Conservative MPs are "shills" for the oil companies, are not willing to work for the national interest, and therefore should go back to Alberta in order to sit on city councils or in the Alberta legislature. 

Bob Rae, interim Liberal leader, "bluntly stated Wednesday that McGuinty’s comments could hurt the party’s chances for an upset in Calgary Centre, where polls show Liberal candidate Harvey Locke running a close second to Conservative candidate Joan Crockatt. Calgary Centre has been a Tory riding for more than 40 years." (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/mcguinty-resigns-critic-post-for-saying-m...)

The Calgary Herald reported that "Immigration Minister Jason Kenney, a Calgary member of Parliament, said Alberta Conservative MPs and likely the vast majority of Albertans find McGuinty’s comments 'deeply offensive.' " (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/national/apologizes+David+McGuinty+att...)

MP Michelle Rempel of Calgary Centre North also criticized McGuinty and the Liberals strongly today on Power and Politics.

This will likely remind Albertans of Pierre's National Energy Policy, and while Justin has tried to distance himself from it, McGuinty comments are likely going to confirm to most of them and many other westerners that the Liberals are never going to favour their interests. I think we can safely say 'Goodbye to the Liberal dream of winning Calgary Centre'.

If voters don't like you, you have a political problem. If you don't like voters, you have a real problem. Seriously, what a moron.

grangerock

This is what the parliamentarian (E May) of the year thinks of her colleagues:  from the Straight.com on Nov. 20

"In a message she repeated in front of a cheering crowd of 1,3000 in Victoria on November 19, she pointed out that many of her colleagues--NDP, Liberal and Conservatives--are directed on how to vote on various pieces of legislation.  And, in light of that, they simply don't read much of the legislation which lands on their desks.  They don't have to, they reason, and , as she suggests, if they did, they might be appalled by what they're voting for.  So they just avoid the trouble and refrain from reading it."

This shows no respect for other parliamentarians.

grangerock

oops, meant l,300

NorthReport

So in other words the Liberal Party of Canada doesn't have a prayer in any of the 3 by-elections next week. 

As George Bush would say, you're doing one hell of a job, Brownie, er, Bob Rae.

addictedtomyipod

I'm very happy to know that all signs point to a NDP win in Victoria.  The fact that the sewage treatment issue has risen to the top just shows the level of competition for this seat.  I am also glad to see the level of pressure from the Cons and Libs to win this seat has been limp wristed and that their supporters will perhaps feel the same.  

As far as the newbie on the block, the Greens, they have shown to be no better than any other political party using cheap politics to get support.  Hypocrisy from E. May and the Greens is very distastful and I hope that the many NDP voters that they have managed to rook into their circle of believers have finally seen the other side of this party.

addictedtomyipod

grangerock wrote:

This is what the parliamentarian (E May) of the year thinks of her colleagues:  from the Straight.com on Nov. 20

"In a message she repeated in front of a cheering crowd of 1,3000 in Victoria on November 19, she pointed out that many of her colleagues--NDP, Liberal and Conservatives--are directed on how to vote on various pieces of legislation.  And, in light of that, they simply don't read much of the legislation which lands on their desks.  They don't have to, they reason, and , as she suggests, if they did, they might be appalled by what they're voting for.  So they just avoid the trouble and refrain from reading it."

This shows no respect for other parliamentarians.

 

I am so glad you pointed this out.  If you look at the voting record 99 times out of one hundred, E.May votes the same as the NDP.  This shows manipulation of voters let alone no respect of other MP's.  Sheesh I hate this woman's politics, divide and conquer.

janfromthebruce

0

Aristotleded24

addictedtomyipod wrote:

grangerock wrote:

This is what the parliamentarian (E May) of the year thinks of her colleagues:  from the Straight.com on Nov. 20

"In a message she repeated in front of a cheering crowd of 1,3000 in Victoria on November 19, she pointed out that many of her colleagues--NDP, Liberal and Conservatives--are directed on how to vote on various pieces of legislation.  And, in light of that, they simply don't read much of the legislation which lands on their desks.  They don't have to, they reason, and , as she suggests, if they did, they might be appalled by what they're voting for.  So they just avoid the trouble and refrain from reading it."

This shows no respect for other parliamentarians.

 

I am so glad you pointed this out.  If you look at the voting record 99 times out of one hundred, E.May votes the same as the NDP.  This shows manipulation of voters let alone no respect of other MP's.  Sheesh I hate this woman's politics, divide and conquer.

To say nothing of the fact that Jack was the only federal leader to single her out for congratulations when she won her seat.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

She is right about the Conservatives but unless the NDP has changed they all do their homework.  I know that when two of my friends were NDP MP's one of the things that they were astounded at was how ill prepared the other MP's were.  They both commented on the fact that many MP's voted on bills that they had not even read.

However like with May I think the long flights back and forth to the west coast can be well spent.  For instance if they were in the riding on a Friday evening they would be at a community event but when you are stuck on planes and in waiting rooms for 5 to 7 hours instead it gives you a lot of uninterrupted reading time.

jerrym

Just one day after Liberal David McGuinty resigned as Natural Resources critic because of his comments on Alberta in which he said that Albertan MPs were shills for the oil companies, are not willing to work for the national interest, and therefore should go back to Alberta in order to sit on city councils or in the Alberta legislature, Justin Trudeau has shown his true leadership qualities and doubled down on McGuinty's views with the release of a video in French from two years ago.

He said in a Quebec interview  "Canada isn't doing well right now because it's Albertans who control our community and socio-democratic agenda. It doesn't work" When asked whether he thought Canada was "better served when there are more Quebecers in charge than Albertans," Trudeau replied, "I'm a Liberal, so of course I think so, yes. Certainly when we look at the great prime ministers of the 20th century, those that really stood the test of time, they were MPs from Quebec.... This country, Canada, it belongs to us."

"On CBC News Network's Power & Politics, Alberta Conservative MP Michelle Rempel called the younger Trudeau's comments 'ridiculous' and 'insulting.' ... Trudeau has made several recent trips to Calgary, Edmonton and other Western cities as he campaigns for the Liberal leadership, saying he's eager to put the Liberal 'ghosts of the past' in the West to rest."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/11/22/pol-trudeau-tele-quebec-c...

Those 'ghosts' of Justin and Pierre Trudeaus' past seem to never stop haunting the Liberal party in the West and are sure to spook the Liberal's percentage of the vote in Calgary Centre, as they already have done in Victoria, where the Liberals are fighting it out with the Cons for last place in the polls.

 

jerrym

In the Durham all-candidates debate, the loss of manufacturing jobs and global warming were major issues. NDP candidate, Larry O'Connor, "blasted the Conservatives for what he called their 'high dollar policy', caused by low inflation rates, which he says has resulted in lost manufacturing jobs and flawed trade agreements.

'Our trade agreements used to be about fair trade, not free trade,' he said.'If you're going to sell a car here than you should make a car here.' "

He also "pointed to the faults of ... the Harper government for its record on environmental policy and climate change, noting many harmful environmental policies were passed without discussion as part of the omnibus budget bill.

'The reality of climate change is it's really happening, and we have a role to play,' he said. 'If we sign an agreement with other countries on climate change we should darn well stick to it.' "

http://www.durhamregion.com/news/article/1537352--manufacturing-jobs-a-h...

 

In response to a call by CARP (Canadian Association of Retired Persons) for candidates to provide comments on issues related to seniors, Larry O'Connor replied by focusing on senior income security, health care and affordable housing at http://www.carp.ca/2012/11/16/durham-ndp-candidate-larry-oconnor/ .

 

 

 

Centrist

jerrym wrote:
In the Durham all-candidates debate, the loss of manufacturing jobs and global warming were major issues. NDP candidate, Larry O'Connor, "blasted the Conservatives for what he called their 'high dollar policy', caused by low inflation rates, which he says has resulted in lost manufacturing jobs and flawed trade agreements.

OK. I'm lost on this one. "Caused by low inflation rates"?! Frankly, I don't think that anyone wants to go back to a high inflation, high interest rate environment. It causes "stagflation", which peaked in 1981 with a 20% prime rate and corresponding annual COLA clauses. Perhaps Larry misspoke or was misquoted. 

 

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