Tom Mulcair to Jagmeet Singh - Get Yourself Into Parliament PRONTO

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Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture
Tom Mulcair to Jagmeet Singh - Get Yourself Into Parliament PRONTO

In an interview on CTV Question Period tomorrow Tom Mulcair says

"Parliament is very important as an institution and it's important for a political leader to get in there as soon as possible so that Canadians can get to know him,"

Asked about how he thinks his replacement has been doing, Mulcair said that while the New Democrat caucus is happy to have a "bright" new leader, they’d like to see him around more.

"People have been saying, 'Show up with caucus more.' I’ve always understood that the seed of your power as a leader is the caucus," Mulcair said. "What we’re hearing from caucus, and what people have been saying publicly is, ‘We want to get to know him better."

"He doesn’t know the Parliament very well yet, he’s not sitting in Parliament," said Mulcair, who added he has already given the advice of running for a seat, to his successor.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/mulcair-s-advice-to-ndp-leader-jagmeet-s...

Now as I had mentioned in another thread

Parliament has a tradition that when a leader runs in a by-election for a seat, the Governing party (which would be the Liberals) DO NOT offer up a candidate allowing for the leader an easy ride to victory.

The last time this happened was 2000 when Stockwell Day ran in Okanagan—Coquihalla and Joe Clark ran in King-Hants. The Liberals chose not to run a candidate, though the NDP did run candidates in the both ridings.

Tom Mulcair riding of Outremont will be free this summer for a by-election. If Jagmeet decides to run in that riding, will the Liberals follow Parliamentary tradition? Because if they do follow tradition, with the Liberals out of the way, it would be an easy win for Jagmeet in Outremont.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

That tradition was not followed in 1980, when Crediste' leader Fabien Roy was trying to re-enter the House(his party had lost all of its seats) by standing in a by-election in a previously Creditiste' riding where a candidate had died right before voting day and the race had to be re-run.  Both the Liberals and the PCs nominated candidates and the Liberals took the seat in the by-election.

 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

That tradition was not followed in 1980, when Crediste' leader Fabien Roy was trying to re-enter the House(his party had lost all of its seats) by standing in a by-election in a previously Creditiste' riding where a candidate had died right before voting day and the race had to be re-run.  Both the Liberals and the PCs nominated candidates and the Liberals took the seat in the by-election.

One could argue that was different since he didn't have party status. It would be like an independent running, like Elizabeth May (Green Party Leader)

SocialJustice101

Mulcair is probably just gloating at Singh's recent missteps.   "How do you like me now?" is the subtext.

Pondering

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Mulcair is probably just gloating at Singh's recent missteps.   "How do you like me now?" is the subtext.

What missteps? Were they anything like Mulcair failing to denounce the hijab soccer ban or going to the US to argue against Keystone? What is Mulcair's motive in this interview? Help Singh? Help the NDP? 

Note to Mulcair, you lost the last election and the leadership review. Now think back to when you were leader. What would you have thought of an MP who gave an interview like that? 

If these NDPers want to lose the next election they are going about it very well. 

Debater

Mighty Middle wrote:

Tom Mulcair riding of Outremont will be free this summer for a by-election. If Jagmeet decides to run in that riding, will the Liberals follow Parliamentary tradition? Because if they do follow tradition, with the Liberals out of the way, it would be an easy win for Jagmeet in Outremont.

I don't think Singh will run in Outremont.

He has no connection to the riding, or to Quebec.  I think he plans to run in Ontario, in the GTA.  And he will probably wait until the 2019 Election.

Plus, the Liberals want to win Outremont back and have already been getting canadidates ready for the upcoming by-election.  I don't think they would want to sit this one out, particularly since they are considered the favourites right now.

Sean in Ottawa

The other parties will not sit out a byelection and Singh cannot ask anyway. It is nonsensical for the party to do this with only a year to go.

Taking advice from Mulcair is a bit of a joke now.

 

 

wage zombie

I'm currently relatively happy with how Singh's doing as our leader.

I'm fine with him deciding to wait until the election to get a seat, especially given that the Liberals have a majority.

The unfortunate thing about waiting is that it likely puts governing out of reach.  But I think holding Liberals to a minority is a better goal right now.

Sean in Ottawa

wage zombie wrote:

I'm currently relatively happy with how Singh's doing as our leader.

I'm fine with him deciding to wait until the election to get a seat, especially given that the Liberals have a majority.

The unfortunate thing about waiting is that it likely puts governing out of reach.  But I think holding Liberals to a minority is a better goal right now.

I really don't think trying to get a seat now would make that difference. I agree with you generally. I think he has not communicated well a couple times and that has hurt but that with the right advice lessons can be learned. I just hope they are...

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The other parties will not sit out a byelection and Singh cannot ask anyway. It is nonsensical for the party to do this with only a year to go.

Chretien did that for Stockwell Day & Joe Clark and then 60 days later we were in another election.

60 days between the by-election and the general election

Pondering

Mighty Middle wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The other parties will not sit out a byelection and Singh cannot ask anyway. It is nonsensical for the party to do this with only a year to go.

Chretien did that for Stockwell Day & Joe Clark and then 60 days later we were in another election.

60 days between the by-election and the general election

I think those were the good ol days. We aren't going back to pre-Harper style elections. No party is going to hand a seat over to another party, for the leader or not. 

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

"Taking advice from Mulcair is a bit of a joke now."

Mulcair's advice was not offered unasked. And it was given thoughtfully and graciously.

Unionist

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

"Taking advice from Mulcair is a bit of a joke now."

Mulcair's advice was not offered unasked. And it was given thoughtfully and graciously.

WOWWWW!!!!!

Welcome back, LTJ!!!!

Pondering

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

"Taking advice from Mulcair is a bit of a joke now."

Mulcair's advice was not offered unasked. And it was given thoughtfully and graciously.

I don't think the NDP asked for his advice. 

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Looks like Jagmeet has opened the door just a crack to running in Outremont. NDP leader’s press secretary said Singh is “not going to close the door”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-could-run-f...

Pierre Anctil, a history professor at the University of Ottawa who actually lives in Outremont and specializes in Canadian identity and Québec culture, said it’s far from impossible that Singh could win the riding — even as an anglophone from Ontario.

“I would say, in all of Quebec, his best chances are in a riding that would resemble this,” Anctil said. “I think it’s smart to keep [his options] open.”

And again Parlimentary tradition states that when a leader runs in a by-election for a seat, the governing party (which is the Liberals) DO NOT offer up a candidate.

SocialJustice101

I could be wrong, but I think the Parliamentary tradition usually applies to a governing party and official opposition, not to 3rd parties.      There is no way the Libs will pass up on a chance to embarrass Singh in the Outremont by-election. 

Sean in Ottawa

Mighty Middle wrote:

Looks like Jagmeet has opened the door just a crack to running in Outremont. NDP leader’s press secretary said Singh is “not going to close the door”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-could-run-f...

Pierre Anctil, a history professor at the University of Ottawa who actually lives in Outremont and specializes in Canadian identity and Québec culture, said it’s far from impossible that Singh could win the riding — even as an anglophone from Ontario.

“I would say, in all of Quebec, his best chances are in a riding that would resemble this,” Anctil said. “I think it’s smart to keep [his options] open.”

And again Parlimentary tradition states that when a leader runs in a by-election for a seat, the governing party (which is the Liberals) DO NOT offer up a candidate.

Sure it is possible. It is just extremely unlikely that this could be done without a lot of draining of the party resources and considerable carpet bagger press. It think this could draw the conversation about Singh into dangerous places. If Singh's first language were the same as the majority of the riding he was going to parachute into, you might think that would be a good gamble, a move that would make sense. This instead, would show bad judgment for him to use this riding for a seat instead of the party putting up an appropriate voice. The riding may not take it that Singh has no other place to run which might not be that great a message. They may take it that the NDP does not have anyone else to run there which would be a bigger problem.

I have always thought that Quebec might -- with some work -- accept Singh as leader and be impressed even with him. As their local MP you have got to be kidding. How often does a person succeed parachuting into a riding in a different province when they do not have the same first language as the people there? The NDP should know in 2011 it was a national story when the NDP did this in a huge wave. I am not sure she would succeed in the current environment for the first time. She earned her second term by her work in her first term and got her first term due to a wave caused by Jack Layton.

How often does a parachute into a riding that is not traditionally of the party work? Don't know -- never saw it before. This is a traditional Liberal Riding the NDP would be seeking to turn into a traditional NDP seat by having a succesor to the one who won it first win. That person should be connected to the riding and speak the same first language.

His French is decent for an Anglophone but let's get real.

I think it is a really, really, really, bad idea.

Outremont 66% Francophone, 17% English 17% other: sure let's run a guy who has passable French in a majority French riding. Not sure if this is more insulting to the residents of the riding or to Singh himself. Maybe I am wrong and they would like the idea of being taken advantage of by a party with few local roots and a candidate with none?

Bilingual Mulcair was an ideal candidate. Singh not so much.

 

Mulcair had a relationship with the Hassidic Jewish Community who are the biggest non-French part of this riding.  He cannot gift that relationship no matter how hard he tries. He could burn himself by trying -- although he may not care.

But those that think this is a great riding -- you could market the drugs you are taking. Hopefully any who are considering this actually consider it carefully.

Yes, it is bold but it is also bold to jump from a plane without a parachute. Bold often does not end well. The thing is it is news when it does and non news when it does not. A failure would make Singh a footnote. He could survive the loss but not the judgment that made him try there. He may not get a second chance to build a relationship with the people he tried to use to get a seat and who rejected that idea.

Singh has long odds for success -- maybe 1 in 3. But they are good enough that there is no need to trade them for odds that look more like 1 in 10.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I could be wrong, but I think the Parliamentary tradition usually applies to a governing party and official opposition, not to 3rd parties.      There is no way the Libs will pass up on a chance to embarrass Singh in the Outremont by-election. 

Joe Clark was leader of the 5th party in the House of Commons when the Liberals allowed him an easy win to a seat.

JKR

It seems to me that what usually happens is that a new leader without a seat has an MP in a very safe riding step aside. Singh could have easily done that last year when he became leader but it would be harder now that he has said he wasn't going to go that route. Also, there are not many safe NDP seats. Singh would be courting disaster if he lost a byelection just less than a year before the general election, especially if he lost badly in a seat held by the former leader. There is also a good chance the Alberta NDP government will lose the Alberta election just five months before the federal election so there is even more reason for Singh and the NDP to avoid piling on losses and creating downward momentum for the federal election. I think Mulcair should have kept his mouth shut. He's put Singh and the NDP in an awkward spot.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Jagmeet recently made a pit stop in Outremont (along with Tom Mulcair) to test the waters

http://storage.journaldemontreal.com/v1/dynamic_resize/sws_path/jdx-prod-images/0048faaa-0206-4163-a706-6b0aa0ab3140_JDX-NO-RATIO_WEB.jpg?quality=80&version=19&size=1936x

JKR

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I could be wrong, but I think the Parliamentary tradition usually applies to a governing party and official opposition, not to 3rd parties.      There is no way the Libs will pass up on a chance to embarrass Singh in the Outremont by-election. 

Joe Clark was leader of the 5th party in the House of Commons when the Liberals allowed him an easy win to a seat.

The Liberals probably weren't too upset watching Clark's PC party split the vote with Preston Manning's Reform party which handed government to the Liberals by default election after election until the right merged into the Conservative party. I think the Liberal government would have even survived the Sponsorship Scandal had the PC and Conservative-Reform Alliance parties remained separate.

JKR

Mighty Middle wrote:

Jagmeet recently made a pit stop in Outremont (along with Tom Mulcair) to test the waters

http://storage.journaldemontreal.com/v1/dynamic_resize/sws_path/jdx-prod-images/0048faaa-0206-4163-a706-6b0aa0ab3140_JDX-NO-RATIO_WEB.jpg?quality=80&version=19&size=1936x

And snack on some unleavened bread.

Cody87

If I was a liberal strategist, and Singh ran in Quebec, I wouldn't run against him. Not because it would be poor form to do so, but because then Singh will be stuck representing a riding that will be harder for him to hold onto in 2019. Unless Singh abandoned the riding to return to Ontario for the 2019 election, which would screw the NDP hard not only in that riding but also in the rest of Quebec.

brookmere

Mighty Middle wrote:
Joe Clark was leader of the 5th party in the House of Commons when the Liberals allowed him an easy win to a seat.

The NDP ran a candidate in that election, as in every other election where a new leader of the Liberals or Conservatives (or predecessors)  was seeking a seat. The NDP can't expect the Liberals to extend a courtesey that the NDP was never willing to extend itself. Particularly in Outremont, where regaining the seat for the Liberals is crucial to their strategy for making gains in Quebec next year.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Cody87 wrote:

Unless Singh abandoned the riding to return to Ontario for the 2019 election

Both Mulroney & Chretien did the same thing. The got into the House of Commons thru a seat in Atlantic Canada, and then in the general ran in Quebec, both becoming Prime Minister.

SocialJustice101

brookmere wrote:
The NDP ran a candidate in that election, as in every other election where a new leader of the Liberals or Conservatives (or predecessors)  was seeking a seat. The NDP can't expect the Liberals to extend a courtesey that the NDP was never willing to extend itself. Particularly in Outremont, where regaining the seat for the Liberals is crucial to their strategy for making gains in Quebec next year.

That's a very good point.  If the NDP never followed the tradition, why would they expect to benefit from it?

If Singh loses the by-election, the media will undoubtedly question his leadership and electability.   If I were a Liberal strategist, that's exactly what I would want.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Jagmeet recently made a pit stop in Outremont (along with Tom Mulcair) to test the waters

Well, there's at least four voters that can't resent Singh for his outward trappings of religion.

Sean in Ottawa

Lets be really clear about this tradition as I think some are confused by it:

The tradition is that Liberals and Conservatives will not run agaisnt the other when the leader runs in a SAFE seat that they have no hope of beating. Why go through the motions of trying to dislodge a leader in a safe seat? Why waste the money?

If the leader decides to run in a marginal contested seat then this tradition simply does not apply.

Don't think the parties like each other and are trying to help. What they like is a reason to avoid being blown out at their high cost in an unwinnable riding that would cost a great deal becuase it is high profile.

People are dreaming if they think this applies to a seat that could actually be winnable. The tradition is also that new leaders run in very safe seats.... where the other parties would only waste their money by contesting. Do you really think the Liberals think this applies to ANYTHING in Quebec that the NDP hold?

I think they would run against him in any seat that is not so NDP that they would have to be crazy to think they could win. That is the tradition.

WWWTT

You’re probably right Sean. 

But this is one of those threads were the subjects of are feeding right into it!

First Mulcair makes the suggestion than the two are seen together a few days later in the riding. Cmon Sean this has every one speculating. 

The NDP are I believe are going to at the very least test the liberals. If Jag isn’t going to run then the NDP MUST put a strong effort into holding this seat!

Sean in Ottawa

WWWTT wrote:

You’re probably right Sean. 

But this is one of those threads were the subjects of are feeding right into it!

First Mulcair makes the suggestion than the two are seen together a few days later in the riding. Cmon Sean this has every one speculating. 

The NDP are I believe are going to at the very least test the liberals. If Jag isn’t going to run then the NDP MUST put a strong effort into holding this seat!

The NDP do have to put in an effort to hold it with the best candidate for the riding.

Pogo Pogo's picture

I think it was Arthur Meighen who became leader and  in a by-election (1941?) and was defeated by the CCF who did not abide by the safe entry rule. The Liberals did not run a candidate.

pietro_bcc

It would be a bad decision for Singh to run in Outremont. Outremont wasn't an NDP seat, it was a Tom Mulcair seat. Mulcair was a star candidate when he won and the NDP don't have a chance of winning unless they find a similar star candidate because its in reality a moderately safe Liberal riding (off the top of my head someone like Julius Grey could possibly win), Singh isn't a star candidate in Quebec.

If Singh runs the Liberals will win easily and by a huge margin. No sense in going through that embarrassment.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Way back in 2007 when Jean Lapierre resigned as the MP for Outremont, Justin Trudeau made inquires about running as an MP (he actually lived in the riding). Stephanie Dion was the leader back then and told Trudeau NO. He was saving that seat for his good friend Jocelyn Coulon, and if Trudeau wanted to run as an MP, find a riding and run for the nomination. With no help from the party.

Jocelyn Coulon did run in the 2007 by-election and was defeated by Tom Mulcair. Side note to this, when Trudeau became leader, he forced Dion to win his own nomination to run in 2015!

Fast forward to 2018 and Jocelyn Coulon has written a tell-all book eviscerating Trudeau while creating a sympathetic portrayal of Dion, pretty much saying Trudeau is ruthless and threw Dion under the bus.

So what better way to get back at Trudeau than for Jocelyn Coulon to do everything in his power to help Jagmeet win Outremont. With his tell-all book the first volley in taking the shine off of Trudeau in Outremont?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Unionist wrote:

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

"Taking advice from Mulcair is a bit of a joke now."

Mulcair's advice was not offered unasked. And it was given thoughtfully and graciously.

WOWWWW!!!!!

Welcome back, LTJ!!!!

Yeah, welcome back.  BTW, what the heck is your avatar?

SocialJustice101

pietro_bcc wrote:
If Singh runs the Liberals will win easily and by a huge margin. No sense in going through that embarrassment.

The party could commission internal polling to determine Jagmeet Singh's chances in Outremont.

JKR

SocialJustice101 wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:
If Singh runs the Liberals will win easily and by a huge margin. No sense in going through that embarrassment.

The party could commission internal polling to determine Jagmeet Singh's chances in Outremont.

How many voters in Outremont know who Singh is?

How can you poll accurately without specifying who the Liberal and BQ candidates are?

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Whether or not Singh decides to run in Outremont, it is good to see him schmoozing here in Montreal.

As far as the stepping aside for the leader thing, I think that only applies between the Libservatives and the Coniberals.
 

bekayne

Pogo wrote:

I think it was Arthur Meighen who became leader and  in a by-election (1941?) and was defeated by the CCF who did not abide by the safe entry rule. The Liberals did not run a candidate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_W._Noseworthy

The Liberals didn't run a candidate, but there was some behind the scenes hanky panky from Mackenzie King.

bekayne

Mighty Middle wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I could be wrong, but I think the Parliamentary tradition usually applies to a governing party and official opposition, not to 3rd parties.      There is no way the Libs will pass up on a chance to embarrass Singh in the Outremont by-election. 

Joe Clark was leader of the 5th party in the House of Commons when the Liberals allowed him an easy win to a seat.

And the very next day the Liberals stole 2 of his Quebec MPs!

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Jagmeet Singh Seriously Considering Risky Run For Mulcair’s Old Montreal Seat

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/04/11/jagmeet-singh-mulcair-outremont...

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

Running in Quebec’s Outremont would be a risky move for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/04/13/running-in-qu...