Which Conservative Will The Ontario Liberals Try To Tempt To Cross The Floor?
October 7, 2011 - 7:15am
Being just one seat away from a majority, you KNOW that the Liberals are going to go all-out and target a Conservative to do a 'David Emerson' and cross the floor for a cabinet post.
Any ideas who the Liberals will be targeting?
well it could be either con or NDP - so where do they want more presence?
Maybe Andrea Horwath will cross over to become Deputy Premier.
Mods, please move this to the Ontario forum before babblers from non-Ontario provinces get all huffy. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Catchfire.
*waves to bagkitty*
Why, I never!
Moved to COTU forum.
To Ontario: Couldn't you have gotten your ducks in a row back in May with the rest of the country? Thanks for nothing, overlords.
Hmm... lets look at them, they are new so some people might have to shine some light on them:
Jagmeet & Taras - both ran federally, and this is Taras' 4th; dosen't strike me as they would jet as they have been committed running multiple times, if Jagmeet was a liberal he would have ran as one and had a better (sorry more likely shot) of winning. But i could be wrong.
Sarah Campbell & Michael Mantha - being Howards constituency assistant, and Carol Huges (Mantha) i don't see someone who worked so long for an NDP member, and the leader (Sarah) jetting away to a party they worked so hard against.
Teresa, Jonah and Monique - not sure, Jonah has a very activit background and again could have just ran for the liberals and probably won their nomination. Teresa, Monique no clue... but Monique won thanks to Horwath to some degree so don't burn that bridge either, Horwath isn't called a scrapper for nothing.
Cindy or John - both have years of municipal service and thats non-partisan, they could be tempted (Cindy would suffer the wrath of Kormos so i doubt she would jet :P ) ...but we do know what happened to the last NDP elected from Temiskaming-Cochrane (Ramsey himself crossed over)
of the 10 members re-elected... i don't see any of them leaving to cross over?
Tories? Who are the moderates? those Red Tories, do they even exist?
lil.Tommy you are right that there aren't many Red Tories around these days. And at the provincial level they don't hold any seats in 416 so it's probably hard to find one that is pro-gay when some of their colleagues like Vince Agovino were still sending anti-gay literature around targetting openly gay Liberal MPP Kathleen Wynne.
Xtra discusses it here:
Agovino states he will “defend” Catholic schools from “queer issues.” He quotes extensively from an interview out lesbian Liberal MPP Kathleen Wynne gave to Xtra last month on the subject of gay-straight alliances in Catholic schools, accusing her of having a radical agenda.
“Unfortunately, we cannot dismiss these comments as the musings of but one Liberal Cabinet Minister who is pushing her agenda from inside the Dalton McGuinty Liberal Cabinet,” he writes. “Ontario schools continue to be forced into accepting Kathleen Wynne’s agenda to ensure that certain radical ‘opportunities exist’ in our ‘kids’ lives through their formative years.’”http://www.xtra.ca/public/National/UPDATE_Tim_Hudak_defends_homophobic_c...
It's an interesting topic, and perhaps it's something that McGuinty will consider, but voters often don't like floor crossers and party switchers. Only a minority of them end up going on to win re-election several times (Eg. Scott Brison in Kings-Hants). Often changing parties is viewed with suspicion and ends in tears for the turncoats. Look what happened to Tony Genco and Rocco Rossi last night.
I was thinking of an older Conservative who wouldn't otherwise have a chance with Hudak as Premier ever to see a cabinet post, so he/she wouldn't have much to lose by crossing the floor before retiring when the next election is called.
But they would qualify for a higher pension if they were to serve four years as a cabinet minister, wouldn't they?
Witmer?
Apparently the Liberals don't even need to resort to short-circuiting recent results of the bad electoral system. The election of a PC or NDP member to Speaker of the legislature, or even a by-election in their favour would return the Liberals to dictatorial power. Big money interests are in the driver's seat still. They are laughing all the way to the bank.
Witmer?
Interesting.
I have no idea if she would go for it, but I can easily see Liberal insiders pulling out all the stops to woo her over to a cabinet post.
Can someone more in the know please supply more info on this 'Witmer' for us non-Ontarioans?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Witmer
Being just one seat away from a majority, you KNOW that the Liberals are going to go all-out and target a Conservative to do a 'David Emerson' and cross the floor for a cabinet post.
Any ideas who the Liberals will be targeting?
A waste of time: no one would do that. Emerson came from BC where they have two parties: the NDP and the anti-socialists. The only PC elected in Northern Ontario (similar political culture) was in Nipissing where the NDP always comes third. The only PCs elected in Ontario where the NDP came second were in Oshawa, plus Sarnia-Lambton (but the PC got 48.4%), and Haldimand-Norfolk (but the PC got 60.8%).
I'm hoping Wilf's right that the Liberals will find it difficult to overturn this fragile result. Perhaps they won't even try to. Perhaps with NDP support and guidance on a few key issues here and there, Pinocchio and crew will be wildly popular in Ontario, once again, and the NDP should score more support along the way.
I'd also be careful about talking too much about replacing Marchese as the ONDP candidate in his riding in the next election(the "he's past it" thing). That could ultimately provoke a person to crossing the floor(or accepting election as Speaker) in order to stick it to the people who want him out.
I'd also be careful about talking too much about replacing Marchese as the ONDP candidate in his riding in the next election (the "he's past it" thing).
That's a long way off. Who knows what he'll want to do when he's 63 years old in 2015? I doubt he knows himself, but he enjoys life a lot, and might well have a few more things he wants to do. He was a great school trustee for eight years before 1990, a pioneer in the progressive Italian community of Toronto. With redistribution, the next federal election and the next Ontario election will both feature different riding boundaries. No one can plan where, or if, they will run until we see those boundaries.
Wilf brings up a very interesting topic.
If Harper has scheduled the next federal election for the fall of 2015, doesn't this conflict with all the provinces/territories who also have set election dates (Manitoba, P.E.I., Saskatchewan, Yukon, N.W.T., Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario) for the fall of 2015?
Or should this be a seperate topic to avoid thread drift?
Moderators???
I think it would be a huge mistake for McGuinty to court anyone from the opposition. Ontarians tend to punish pure opportunism. Liberals would be done the next election for sure.
What's the possibility of anyone moving the *other* way, a la Tim Peterson? (Probably minimal, at the moment.)
Looks like the Status quo of the Election will remain. I have heard of no one interested in floor crossing, infact, I haven't even heard interest in anyone being the speaker.
Way too early to count this out.
For one thing, they could already have an MPP ready to do it, with both sides taking the time to arrange the optics. Like after the Leg sits, and/or something comes up, whatever.
The Liberals have a long time to do it. No one will make a move to unseat them for over a year. At the moment, not having a majority is just an inconvenience. It is only down the road that being on this knife edge will endanger them.
According to the Star, there are four Liberal MPPs rumoured to be vying for the Speaker's chair:
Is there a consensus that Speaker from another party is efffectively out?
Because of other party disciplines, and/or because it would cost the Liberals too much to try to crack that [medicine worse than cure]?
That is what i would excpect. Like I said, I cannot see that the Libs have anything to worry about until well into the second year of their mandate. Which would imply: not looking for them slimeing into a majority [or manovering to a de facto majority] until being positioned for Budget 2013.
Michael Prue recently went out of his way to dispel the rumours of him being approached.
Globe and Mail: In blow to Hudak, Tory MPP launches bid for speaker
It's Frank Klees.
He's not quite crossing the floor; but if he's elected, it may effectively have the same result.
Presumably Klees gets a vote... so that even if every other PC plus the NDP votes against him, he wins.
Correct?
If all of the Liberal candidates withdraw, there will be no need for a vote, unless another Opposition candidate steps forward.
Very shrewd of McGuinty - much cleaner and more legit than a floor crossing, and he can still always claim the opposition had their minority when it suits him. I'm just surprised it took so little (being speaker) to entice anyone; not surprised it's Frank Klees.
Being speaker is a good job - you get a $50,000 raise - a luxury apartment in the legislature and no need to manage a pesky ministry. But I don't think Klees will win. It seems that four Liberals are still going to run against him and if on the final ballot it is Klees against a Liberal - the Liberal will win by one vote if all the opposition votes for the Liberals plus the Liberal him or herself.
Klees though has now burned a lot of bridges and will not be welcomes back to the Tory fold. But he is also an ultra rightwing social conservative who would never join the Liberals. I'll bet the Liberals buy him off with an appointment in the hopes of winning a byelection in Newmarket-Aurora.
If I was the Liberals I would give Klees a government job of promoting industrial wind, which he has a personal stake in. Frees up a seat they can throw the kitchen sink at during a by election and also undermines the Conservative base in rural Ontario that had a lot to do with the issue. Pretty much all upside for the Liberals whether he wins or not.
If the reports are true that Klees did this over Elliott getting her Deputy Leader position back, don't expect a soft landing in federal circles for Klees after letting off such a SBD in public for the Conservatives on both levels.
A byelection in Newmarket-Aurora would be very risky for the Liberals - a lot of people would be reluctant to give the Liberals a "blank cheque" in such a Tory riding...Klees might end up sitting as an independent and might support the Liberals from time to time though.
Remember McGuinty has a lot of cabinet positions in his pocket yet.
rather be silent
Being speaker is a good job - you get a $50,000 raise - a luxury apartment in the legislature and no need to manage a pesky ministry. But I don't think Klees will win. It seems that four Liberals are still going to run against him and if on the final ballot it is Klees against a Liberal - the Liberal will win by one vote if all the opposition votes for the Liberals plus the Liberal him or herself.
Klees though has now burned a lot of bridges and will not be welcomes back to the Tory fold. But he is also an ultra rightwing social conservative who would never join the Liberals. I'll bet the Liberals buy him off with an appointment in the hopes of winning a byelection in Newmarket-Aurora.
Yeah it's a good job, particularly compared to being a backbench member, but essentially it's 30k$ (everyone gets some sort of job that gives them 10k or 20k extra annually) and an apartment to break party solidarity, burn personal bridges, wreck your party's leverage and give the party you've been opposing all your career a majority. So while I'm surprised that's enough of an offer to make a opposition member effectively defect, I'm not surprised that someone who has been around the block that took the bait, like Klees. He's been a backbencher, a Minister, ran for leader...what's he got left to strive for? Nada.
I keep wondering what happens to Klees after he loses the race for speaker. BTW I hear him interviewed on Metro Morning today and setting aside the mathematical implications of him being speaker - the guy sounded like an arrogant, vainglorious jerk and struck me as having a personality that was 100% wrong for the job of speaker of the leg. Ultimately MPPs need to ask themselves who would make the best speaker - Klees would be awful.
I don't get what the end game is for him though. Once he loses - does he get welcomed back into the PC caucus with open arms? I doubt it. Does he end up as an independent playing the role of Chuck Cadman in this minority parliament?
Well, around the block people who have had previously had more than they have now, have little to lose in risking their bird in the hand.
Klees will have a nice pension, the chance for 'side jobs' that make more than pocket change; for which in return he gives up the boring day to day of back bencher which he has no further chance of changing since he was not going be around for the next election anyway.
Cecil Clarke- who is a good guy not to be compared to Klees- was a Nova Scotia PC MLA. He's still fairly young and people wondered why he wanted to give up being an MLA for the VERY long odds of getting elected as a Conservative MP on Cape Breton.
Answer: apparently he decided he had enough of provincial politics anyway. Nothing to lose.
Maybe this is even a preferrable exit for Klees. That not getting government he wanted out. Even a vainglorious jerk prefers not to look like a quitter. So he takes a shot at being Speaker... and if he doesnt get it, gets driven out.
To be fair although they get an RRSP matching contribution (I think?), the MPPs no longer have a pension. And Klees being elected in 1995 means that he wouldn't have received all that much of a lump-sump when the penion was cancelled. It's one of the reasons for the lack of turnover in the PC caucus. Not that Klees will be wanting for much in his post-Legislature career.
I agree that this is likely an exit strategy. The PCs were very confident for quite a while that they'd be the government.
Is there a clamour for Hudak's head?
Of course there would be at least talk. But how much, if any, is it more than just talk?
I keep wondering what happens to Klees after he loses the race for speaker. BTW I hear him interviewed on Metro Morning today and setting aside the mathematical implications of him being speaker - the guy sounded like an arrogant, vainglorious jerk and struck me as having a personality that was 100% wrong for the job of speaker of the leg. Ultimately MPPs need to ask themselves who would make the best speaker - Klees would be awful.
I don't get what the end game is for him though. Once he loses - does he get welcomed back into the PC caucus with open arms? I doubt it. Does he end up as an independent playing the role of Chuck Cadman in this minority parliament?
I heard the news report of that interview on CBC main later. Seems besides being all the things you mentioned, he also doesn't understand the role of Speaker after all these years either. Dumb as a post came to mind. He claimed that he would chart a new course and wouldn't be bound by the practice of breaking a tie in favour of the status quo- the time honoured tradition of the Speaker in the Westminister system. Instead he would vote in the best interests of the people of Ontario or some such pompous nonsense.
I sure hope it is an exit strategy at this point. Because, as a lover of the traditions of our system, this is not someone up to the role of Speaker in a hung House.
It is not inconceivable that Klees figured he'd rather let McGuinty make decisions on his own than with the input of the NDP.
They are one big business party pretending to be two. Charade they are.
Klees . . . is also an ultra rightwing social conservative who would never join the Liberals.
It is not inconceivable that Klees figured he'd rather let McGuinty make decisions on his own than with the input of the NDP.
It's highly conceivable that Klees and many other Conservatives would do anything to prevent the NDP having the votes to bargain with McGuinty.
Liberal/Tory...same old story!
Sounds like the 2006-2011 federal Conservative government situation, doesn't it?
It's highly conceivable that Klees and many other Conservatives would do anything to prevent the NDP having the votes to bargain with McGuinty.
Its not that complicated for the Tories to make that happen - all Hudak has to o is announce that his party will back McGuinty on all confidence votes - and then the NDP has no bargaining power. In fact, why doesn't Hudak make a proposal to have a German-style "grand coalition" with McGuinty and he can be Deputy Premier
Klees . . . is also an ultra rightwing social conservative who would never join the Liberals.
It is not inconceivable that Klees figured he'd rather let McGuinty make decisions on his own than with the input of the NDP.
It's highly conceivable that Klees and many other Conservatives would do anything to prevent the NDP having the votes to bargain with McGuinty.
I think most of us here would accept the notion that the Tories and the Grits, as with the Dems and the GOP, are two heads of the same chimera, enacting largely identical policies while maintaining an illusion of political choice. I think these parties corporate political masters may have ordered this deal, to ensure their agenda is enacted without input of the NDP.
Whcih brings me to something I'd love to have links about, namely the key unelected senior civil servants in this country, what agendas they carry through regardless of who gets elected, and who these specific individuals are.
http://media.thestar.topscms.com/images/a8/46/7fe138d747a3b5737e873cce08...
Can someone more familiar with Ontario provincial politics inform the rest of us as to who Klees might have supported in the last Tory leadership contest? Was he a Hudak backer, or not?
Klees ran against Hudak.
I would imagine that means that Klees backed Klees for the leadership of the Ontario PCs... who knows?
Hudak is pissed at Klees. I don't think he will be very welcome back in the CRAP party
Was there long-standing bad blood between them long before Klees let is name stand for Speaker?
Or could this be Klees's push to gain publicity for a possible federal Conservative leadership bid if he thinks Harper will not be around for the 2015 election?
I wouldn't put it past Harper to ram as much down the throats of Canadians as he possibly can over the next few years, and then (like Brian Mulroney) take off for some corporate position in 2014, letting someone else lead the Conservatives into the next election, to face the voters' wrath.
Does Klees strike anyone as having federal ambitions?
hudak should have a very big say in the parliament, they won 35 percent of the vote, 2 percent less than the liberals..i am against both parties, but i am a supporter of porportional representation and fair is fair.
Or could this be Klees's push to gain publicity for a possible federal Conservative leadership bid if he thinks Harper will not be around for the 2015 election?
I wouldn't put it past Harper to ram as much down the throats of Canadians as he possibly can over the next few years, and then (like Brian Mulroney) take off for some corporate position in 2014, letting someone else lead the Conservatives into the next election, to face the voters' wrath.
Does Klees strike anyone as having federal ambitions?
Is there any precedent for a Speaker becoming a leader? It seems an unlikely pathway.
It appears that Donna Cansfield may end up as the first female Speaker of the Ontario Legislature. About time too. As for Kleesgate, it's been the next best distraction to the epick Ford-Delahunty cage match. In the end Kless has managed to reinforce to us why we should not have voted for Tim Hudak.
And so, Cansfield would be central Etobicoke's second Speaker over the past two decades (after Chris Stockwell)
Interesting. I heard rumblings that Cansfield was going to quit this election. I'm guessing this a valedictory tour until 2015, at which point, Cansfield will retire.