Winnable NDP Seat May Open Up For Jagmeet Singh In September

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NorthReport

Interesting how many Liberals have come here over the years, professing they used to be NDP members or supporters, and that they have now seen the light! It must be on page one of the Liberal online play book.

cco

Rev Pesky wrote:

If he ran and lost, the NDP would be looking for another leader.

Why?

This seems to be conventional wisdom, that the loss of one seat would mean the end of his leadership, but there's not much in the way of precedent for it (Elizabeth May ran in three provinces before getting a seat; Christy Clark lost her seat and stayed on as premier). Procedurally, a new leadership race can only be triggered by Singh's resignation, his death, or a majority vote to hold one at a policy convention (and there won't be one before the 2019 election). Would a loss in a BC by-election force his resignation out of shame, when he could very easily just make up an excuse and continue leading the party from outside the House? Would there be a caucus revolt to force resignation? Nobody's yet made a convincing case for why a single by-election would be the final nail in the coffin.

Plus, as I've said before, the party has neither the time nor the money to hold a new race before next year, to say nothing of what it'd do to the general narrative. Save some major shock like what happened to Patrick Brown, I think we're stuck with Singh until after the election.

WWWTT

Running for this seat is indeed a high risk move for Jagmeet, although he may not have any better options.

LOL!

Oh man the amnesia is deafening and blinding!

Jagmeet gave up his seat at Queens park representing Bramalea Gore Malton to be the NDP leader. If you have info about how he burned all his bridges in Brampton making his return impossible please share! Take all the time you need, in the meantime I’ll be waiting for hell to freeze over. 

robbie_dee

WWWTT wrote:

Running for this seat is indeed a high risk move for Jagmeet, although he may not have any better options.

LOL!

Oh man the amnesia is deafening and blinding!

Jagmeet gave up his seat at Queens park representing Bramalea Gore Malton to be the NDP leader. If you have info about how he burned all his bridges in Brampton making his return impossible please share! Take all the time you need, in the meantime I’ll be waiting for hell to freeze over. 

I think Jagmeet would have an excellent chance of getting elected in Brampton East (the federal seat that most closely overlaps with his former provincial seat) or probably in any one of several seats around it. The problem is that there are no vacancies there now, and no reason to believe there will be an opportunity for a seat to come up in the area before next October. My post was based on the presumption that Jagmeet wants to enter Parliament before the next federal election, and that there may be "no better options" for him to do that than to run in Burnaby South. He could try to push someone else aside instead, e.g. one of the Windsor area MPs, but I'm not sure whether he would have a meaningfully better chance of getting elected there than in Burnaby. Of course he could still wait for the next federal election. Personally though I think he is reeling right now after taking a lot of hits and the idea of running in a byelection, getting a "win", and resetting the table would have to be appealing for him - assuming it works. If he tries it and loses, though, particularly given how much his momentum seems to have fizzled out since his leadership win, I believe he would feel obliged to resign.

Rev Pesky

From cco:

Why?

...Elizabeth May ran in three provinces before getting a seat; Christy Clark lost her seat and stayed on as premier...​

Elizabeth May first. She did not have a caucus to run, nor did the Green party have a chance of forming even an opposition, much less a government. She was running mostly as a 'lost cause', and to get the Green Party a seat at the debates. 

Christy Clark was a long time Liberal MLA and cabinet minister. When she won the leadership of the party (and the premiership), she ran in Gordon Campbell's former riding, and won.  

She did lose her seat in the next general election, but (courtesy Wikipedia):

Clark defied pollster predictions by leading her party to victory, its fourth consecutive mandate but her first, in the May 13, 2013 provincial election reversing a 20-point lead held by the BC NDP at the beginning of the campaign.

She then went to a very safe seat in the Okanagan, where she won the by-election. I think you can say that if the Liberals had lost the election, she would have lost her position. But her campaigning ability, and the disastrous campaign run by the NDP ended with a Liberal majority in the legislature (a huge surprise to almost everyone). Oh, and by the way, Adrain Dix lost his position as leader of the NDP (but kept his seat).

There is really nothing similar about Singh and Clark.

But, as I said, I'm not a member of the NDP. They are entitled to do what they want. I do believe that if Singh ran in a by-election and lost, the party would have done with him. And frankly, what's the rush? How long is it now since Mulcair suggested Singh needed to get himself into the Commons, which everyone seems to have ignored. So, why now?

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Burnaby South is not a gimme seat despite the fact that Burnaby at all three levels of government usually votes NDP. South Burnaby is a very multi-cultural city however it has a relatively small South Asian community and even smaller Sikh one. Its not like Burnaby is Surrey for those of you who don't get it. 

 

progressive17 progressive17's picture

As the leader of the NDP Singh can make any seat open up for himself during the nomination period before the general election. He still signs the nomination papers.

Debater

WWWTT wrote:

I agree with Debater on this point. Anyone is allowed to post about any topic, and a good variety of opinions makes for a good discussion.

”Makes for a good discussion” is a relative term. 

Jagmeet got elected from his support in Brampton and immediate surrounding area in both provincial elections and NDP leadership run. His first federal run he came in second and I helped in the political contributions department for that one. 

For those in the know, we know for sure he’s staying in Brampton! That is where Jagmeet is the strongest!

Every Brampton liberal MP is worried about re election time next year. 

You want to talk about a by election? Talk about why none of the Brampton liberal MP’s are stepping up to offer Jagmeet the opportunity. 

I really believe Justin is worried about Jagmeet. 

Justin went out of his way to make himself look more Indian than an Indian in India to the point he looked like a bafoon!

I don't think Justin is worried about Jagmeet at this point in time.  Jagmeet and the NDP are having trouble gaining traction right now.  This was discussed on At Issue last night.

I think Justin's foolish Indian trip was just incompetent planning by party officials -- I don't think it had much to do with Jagmeet Singh.

There also isn't anything unusual about the Liberal MPs in Brampton not stepping down.  MPs don't step down for MPs in other parties.  It's always an MP in the Leader's own party who steps down for them to run.

I do agree with you though that Brampton remains the most likely place for Singh to run as that is where his provincial base is.

There's no guarantee that Singh can win a federal seat in Brampton since the Liberals won those seats by large margins in 2015, but it's certainly a more viable route for Singh than some of the other seats being floated around.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Tommy Douglas was defeated in his own riding of Regina-Centre when he first ran as the leader of the NDP. He won in a bi-election in BC the next year.

WWWTT

Like I said before, I know his team and his supporters. He has a good number of people in their late teens to early 40’s who live work and go to school in Brampton and the GTA who volunteer and help Jagmeet no if ands buts or maybes!

If the NDP are ever going to get a majority in parliament, the Ontario issue has to be resolved, again no ifs ands buts or maybes! 

Over one third of the seats in parliament are from Ontario, this is simple mathematics and I can’t believe I’m having this debate here????

You know what, you guys just don’t get it!

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

WWWTT wrote:

Like I said before, I know his team and his supporters. He has a good number of people in their late teens to early 40’s who live work and go to school in Brampton and the GTA who volunteer and help Jagmeet no if ands buts or maybes!

If the NDP are ever going to get a majority in parliament, the Ontario issue has to be resolved, again no ifs ands buts or maybes! 

Over one third of the seats in parliament are from Ontario, this is simple mathematics and I can’t believe I’m having this debate here????

You know what, you guys just don’t get it!

So then please share with everyone here what riding Jagmeet purchased a house and moved into just recently. I know the answer, but I'm just curious if you are as up to-date on Jagmeet moves as you claim to be.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

Tommy Douglas was defeated in his own riding of Regina-Centre when he first ran as the leader of the NDP. He won in a bi-election in BC the next year.

And was then very narrowly beaten in that same B.C. riding in 1968-a casualty of "Trudeaumania".  Had it not been for the death of another NDP MP immediately after the 1968 election, giving Tommy a winnable seat to fight in a subsuquent by-election, he would probably have had to give up the federal leadership right then.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Misfit wrote:

Tommy Douglas was defeated in his own riding of Regina-Centre when he first ran as the leader of the NDP. He won in a bi-election in BC the next year.

And was then very narrowly beaten in that same B.C. riding in 1968-a casualty of "Trudeaumania".  Had it not been for the death of another NDP MP immediately after the 1968 election, giving Tommy a winnable seat to fight in a subsuquent by-election, he would probably have had to give up the federal leadership right then.

Tommy Douglas as a CCF provincal leader was a dominant electoral presence. His record as federal leader of the NDP is not one anybody in the party would want to recreate.

NorthReport

This should prove to be a riding to watch in the upcoming Ontario election

BRAMPTON EAST

Who's running 
Parminder Singh (Liberal), Simmer Sandhu (PC), Gurratan Singh (NDP)Daniele Cerasoli (Libertarian)

The vote last time (2014)
(Formerly Brampton—Springdale) Liberal - 40%, NDP - 32%, PC - 24%, Green - 3%, Communist - 0.90%


Gurratan Singh, (pictured) the younger brother of federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, has been nominated to run for the provincial NDP in this new riding. The Liberals are opting for some star power of their own here, fielding Parminder Singh, a medical doctor better known as the founding host of CBC’s former Hockey Night In Canada in Punjabi broadcast.

https://nowtoronto.com/election2018

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

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