Ford vs Smitherman vs Pantalone
I think its time for a new generic thread about the Toronto mayoralty race. The news today is that Adam Vaughan has grudgingly endorsed Smitherman, while damning him with faint praise:
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/875792--adam-vaughan-backs-smitherma...
"“I like Joe and I consider him a friend, but you have to fight the election you’re dealt, not the one you want,” Vaughan said in an interview Friday morning.
“The only way to deal with Rob Ford is George Smitherman. I’m prepared to work with George Smitherman,” he said.
“It’s not so much an endorsement as a frank and realistic look at the way the polls are breaking. Not only do they say George Smitherman is the only candidate who can beat Rob Ford, they say he is beating Rob Ford.”"
Of course Vaughan is willing to work with Smitherman. I mean, basically unless Smitherman gets in Vaughan will be off the executive. Vaughan has every reason to be afraid of Ford. Me, I don't have anything to lose.
Of course this begs the question - just how bad would Smitherman be as mayor if in order to win he has had to make deals to stack the executive committee with so many of the same people that Pantalone would have named (ie: Vaughan, Mihevc, McConnell etc...), plus promising to make John Sewell head of a commission on municipal governance? The mayor personally is just one vote on council, his administration is the sum of its parts. I would rather have the city run by an executive that includes all of the above names than one consisting of Rob Ford's brother Doug, plus Denzil Minnan-Wong, Karen Stintz and Mike Del Grande and sundry other rightwing crackpots.
Half a loaf is preferable to no loaf at all, but so far I still want to get a whole loaf!
Vaughan doesn't have any ideas. He would just be taking orders. I can't think of anything progressive he has done. He main focus seems to be closing down all the venerable social institutions in the ward. Heard the Green Room is toast now. That on top of killing late night coffee and cheesecake at Futures. Guess the only option after 11:00 PM in the Annex is "the Beer Station, the Wreck Room, of the Brunswick Tavern". Thanks Adam! Also thanks for making my 80 year old mother have to walk half a mile to free run her toy dog.
Oddly I believe Joe Pantalone who was the one who got licensed patios allowed in Toronto. Given Adam's penchant for closing down patios, and making it tough for night club owners to run a business, it does not seem odd at all that Vaughan would end up backing the opposition. Mostly he seems to work for yuppy developers. Basically the whole election is turning out to be a war between the Liberal yuppy developers, and the conservative developers.
Adam already works for the former, so this is a perfect match. Fortunately I own property in this ward, so I stand to profit when Adam finishes getting rid of all the artists and other low-lifes from the ward and the property values go up!
The one thing I can say that is good about Adam is that he "means well" but he certainly wont be making any demands that Smitherman will have to meet.
I also saw that the Toronto Environmental Alliance which Gord Perks used to chair put out its report card on the candidates. Pantalone gets A+ and a 100% rating, Smitherman gets an A with a 90% rating and Ford gets an F with a rating of ZERO%.
But Smitherman is full of shit.
That's a very substantive argument to use when trying to convince someone as to why Smitherman is "the devil incarnate".
It reminds of people who condemn the Liberals even when you point out that they have done SOME good things in the history of Canada (ie: national health care or the Charter of Rights and Freedoms) by pointing "yeah but, they only did those things to gain votes", or "they only did those things because the NDP pressured them". Its all true - but in the end who cares about whether a politician's motives are pure if you get the results you want in the end. I think Smitherman is "influenceable". Ford is not.
Yes. He is under the influence of yuppy developers from the I can run people down and not even go to trial crowd. Of course Adam wants to connect with that.
I think Smitherman is "influenceable". Ford is not.
And when it comes to influence, money talks and bullshit runs a marathon.
I'll say this, that's the most polite way of saying that a person is unprincipled and opportunistic that I have ever seen.
Well... lets think of what Adam can influence Smitherman to do? How about bringing prohibition to Toronto? Odd that Stockholm should be suggesting that Vaughan who is not even in the NDP and defeated the NDP candidate in order to get where he is? How should he somehow cause Smitherman to be influencable by "the left". He still has got to present a single case where Vaughan has "caused" anything progressive to happen? Indeed when has he ever expressed the desire for something progressive to happen?
I prefer someone cynical and unprincipled to someoen 100 percent principled and 100 percent fascistic!
Ford is Hitler now! Worse! Maybe he is Canada's Amedinejad!
Ford is the 12th Imam.
How fortunate then, that we don't have to make that choice.
Globe and Mail: Ford leads in first poll narrowed to three candidates
The first poll conducted in a narrower, three-person mayoral race after Rocco Rossi dropped out shows Rob Ford continues to lead with 10 days remaining in the race.
The Forum Research poll showed the Etobicoke councillor leads with 44 per cent of the 700 people polled, compared with 38 per cent for George Smitherman. Sixteen per cent of those surveyed said they plan to vote for Joe Pantalone. Two per cent selected someone else and 16 per cent of voters remain undecided.
Mr. Ford maintains a commanding lead in Etobicoke, with 53 per cent of those polled, while Mr. Smitherman is barely edging him in the old city of Toronto, with 39 per cent of the vote compared with 38 per cent for Mr. Ford. Mr. Ford was also leading among older, male voters.
700 polled that is a decent number, So if Joe get all of the 16 percent undecided and the 2 percent voting for others he still loses! Yep he should stay in the race to ensure that Ford wins. Illogical but not surprising!
Good thinking. Better to let the two leading right-wing candidates get a combined 95% of the vote.
This discussion makes me think that our municiapl voting system might be worse off than our federal and provincial ones. I strongly beleive that the federal and provincial ones need proportional representation, while that is not an option in a municipal no-party system. What's the solution? It's called single transferrable vote (STV). If we had STV, all of the Pantalone supporters could vote their conscience and unless they are really confused, would select Smitherman 2nd or anywhere before Ford on subsequent choices. Then on the last round of counting votes, it would come down to Smitherman and Ford and Smitherman would get in. Whether or not Ford wins this election, this is something that council really should consider! It is simply the most democratic system to select a mayor. Can we all agree on that?
Thats presuming that Smitherman is the second choice. I would not bet on it. The council will ultimately control the power not Ford.
The council will ultimately control the power not Ford.
If the fact that council will control the power is the reason you are not afraid of letting Ford win-council will ultimately control the power if Smitherman wins as well. Only difference is I am sure Smitherman is not going to embarrass me every time he opens his month-but I can count on Ford embarrassing me and Toronto as well
The council will ultimately control the power not Ford.
Only difference is I am sure Smitherman is not going to embarrass me every time he opens his month-but I can count on Ford embarrassing me and Toronto as well
Seriously? Have you ever heard Smitherman? I am not sure that is a given at all!
Very little to choose between the two. Im sure Ford has handlers that will shadow him at all times. They seem to be doing a good job because he is maintaining a very low profile and waiting for Smitherman to shoot himself in the foot. Smitherman has been know to fly off the handle.
This discussion makes me think that our municiapl voting system might be worse off than our federal and provincial ones. I strongly beleive that the federal and provincial ones need proportional representation, while that is not an option in a municipal no-party system. What's the solution? It's called single transferrable vote (STV).
Sorry to be picky but what you are talking about is called AV (alternative voting) where you get to rank candidates and it produces an instant run-off effect. STV is a form of proportional representation involving multi-member ridings - nothing that is at all applicable to a race for mayor.
I would like to see head-to-head polls comparing Ford vs Smitherman to Ford vs Pantalone. I bet the former would be neck and neck and the latter would be a Pantalone lead.
Actually, I would have prefered to have seen that about a month ago, rather than with 10 days to go.
The Star only gets Ipsos Reid to ask the questions that it wants answered, and only publishes the polls that it wants too.
behind the Ford campaign...
http://www.windsorstar.com/health/Anne+Jarvis+Kouvalis+hard+stop/3661297...
Ford has 6 point lead in first major poll since Rossi pullout
What?? Toronto doesn't have a spending problem?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-DxAcFLwU8
You mean you think that Toronto's having a 9 billion dollar year roung budget is a large number?When you consider the fact that Toronto is policed year round for a billion dollars, when it cost the Feds one billion to police Toronto for a week of G20 summit.
If Harper was running Toronto, it appears the police budget alone would top 54 Billion.
I suggest you take a google map of a single city street, and then zoom out, and zoom out again, and zoom out again, and again, and again, until you are looking at a map that encompasses the entire GTA. Then consider that for that measily 9 billion, the entire city is policed, served with a fired department, a social welfare department, a system of social housing, homeless shelters, traffic lights, traffic signs, road repair crews and EMS teams, and much much more. Geeze, the government for the 6th largest economic unit in Canada has oly a 9 billion dollar budget, and no deficit, like the five above them.
Isn't a government with no deficit what you wanted? Funny, the right wingers, like yourself, who are always howling about deficit's never seem to be able to provide a government without one, while Miller and Pantalone have. Lol.
We have a transit system that has the LOWEST subsidy rates for any major urban center in North America, and a per ride cost that is on par with or lower than most transit systems in North America. I would think that you would thank your lucky stars that Toronto doesn't enforce a 6% transit tax and subsidize each ride on the TTC like Vancouver does to the tune of $2.50. Never mind that Toronto does all this with the lowest percentage residential property tax in the region.
But of course. the "Gravy Train" tag line is just another way for the conservative to try and get their due at the public trough, like all good "tax and rob" conservatives. Am I surprised that the partially privatized York Region transit system has a higher cost per fare ratio than Vancouver, and that the taxpayers spend more per ride that almost any other city in Canada? Hardly. Fiscal conservatism is conservative in everything but feathering their own nests.
My only question about you is are you a fool setting yourself up to get taken to the cleaners, yet again, or shill who expects to make a profit by being on the inside of the pig pen?
What's your idea Mr. Social Democrat? That the entire cost of the TTC should be run off the fare box. Problem is that you want to expand the system as well, like say they did in Vancouver, where the total cost per fare is $5 including all government subsidies. In that scenario the total payment of each person taking a trip on the TTC will be $5.50. That is about the only way that Robert Ford could unburden the cost of the TTC off the "taxpayer" and still expand all his imaginary subway systems.
Of course subway patrons don't count as "taxpayers" that need to be "respected". Really they are some kind of leach.
Is that the kind of "spending problem" you are alleging exists. Dirt cheap transit with little to no government subsidies?
Ford has 6 point lead in first major poll since Rossi pullout
Strategic voting rarely works.
The ONDP got their lowest-ever percentage of the popular vote in the 1999 provincial election, that didn't stop the Harris Tories from being re-elected with a majority government.
I just watched the video socialdemocracynow posted. It's a very positive and well-cited piece about how Toronto is not in crisis, and that our tax rates, etc, are better than most cities in the GTA.
Cueball, I loved your rebuttal, even though I don't see socialdemocracynow arguing the standard pro-cuts talking points at post#27, if the content of that video is assumed to be his/her stance. But it does continue to amaze me that the "Toronto is out of control" hype keeps getting hyped, with no facts behind it.
Oh, except for this Cueball:
Cueball, don't do that. But keep doing everything else.
Ford has 6 point lead in first major poll since Rossi pullout
Strategic voting rarely works.
The ONDP got their lowest-ever percentage of the popular vote in the 1999 provincial election, that didn't stop the Harris Tories from being re-elected with a majority government.
It does work in individual ridings (ie: Linda Duncan winning in Edmonton-Strathcona) and in fact in 1999 it certainly cost the Harris Tories a lpot of seats - but the problem was that the Tories still won 45% of the vote in 1999 - so there just wasn't a large enough anti-Tory vote to "strategize".
In the 2003 Toronto mayoral race, strategic voting (if you want to call it that) worked very well. In the final two weeks of the campaign, people abandoned Barbara Hall for David Miller to prevent John Tory from winning and Miller beat Tofry by a relatively narrow 44-40% margin.
No surprise here
Fundamentally, the race has devloved into a race between Yuppie Liberal developers and Conservative developers.
No surprise here
Not the worst!
Not the worst!
But as Smitherman himself says, "Compare me to the alternative, not the almighty."
Isn't that just George paraphrasing PET? Hand-me-down witticisms aren't that impressive.
And not one word about eHealth. Telling.
I am voting for Smitherman to stop queer bashing. Rob Ford is dangerous, he reminds me of George Bush, i dont think we should give him any more power , even as a Mayor.
I am afraid of someone who wont even pretend to be gay friendly in Toronto.
http://www.xtra.ca/public/National/Ford_to_dodge_debate_at_The_519-9291....
Didn't see that coming...
Excelent! It has been said before that people get the government they deserve. In Smitherman's Toronto, it doesn't matter if you are gay or not you will still get fucked over! Forget about the right of people to collectively organize, queer or not, and forget about the right not to be exploited because of the colour of your skin, queer or not, forget about parks, trees, services, swiming pools, queer or not, as long as there is not any exploitation or abuse because of sexual orientation everything is just AOK!. Lets celebrate the ability of the queer people such as George Smitheman to take on the mantle of power and undermine the rights of labour and minorities, just like the rest of the privileged white folks!
Hooray! That is real progress!
Doesn't matter Ford is going to crush the faux left, gay or not.
But we have a choice! We could support Pantalone who supports the police actions during the G20, supports "Israeli apartheid" (sic.) and wholeheartedly supported the city's position when the muncipal workers went on strike last summer!! Viva la revolucion!
Fundamentally, the race has devloved into a race between Yuppie Liberal developers and Conservative developers.
Wow, have you not walked through Joe Pantalone's ward lately? It's unfettered condo development par excellence. Ugliest waterfront in the city is Trinity-Spadina. Thanks Joe!!
Ford isn't going to "crush" anybody. He is losing steam. According to the 2 latest polls, Smitherman and Ford are statistically tied. Pantalone is Toronto's Ralph Nader.
That's a gross exaggeration. First of all Pantalone is not wallowing at 2% in the polls like nader. He's at 15 or 16%.
Secondly, as much as Ford is a nauseating pig (and Smitherman and ever so slightly less nauseating pig) - the stakes in the mayoralty of Toronto are about one one millionth as high as in a US presidential election. The President of the United States can declare wars, has VAST executive powers, appoints supreme court justices for life and is generally acknowldged to be the single most powerful individual on the face of the earth. In contrast, the mayor of Toronto is a glorified pothole fixer. The consequence of Bush becoming President was two wars, massive deficits and the world on the brink of economic collapse. The consequence of Ford as mayor - is we would have to grit our teeth for four years while an embarrassing buffoon is the "face of Toronto".
That's a gross exaggeration. First of all Pantalone is not wallowing at 2% in the polls like nader. He's at 15 or 16%.
Secondly, as much as Ford is a nauseating pig (and Smitherman and ever so slightly less nauseating pig) - the stakes in the mayoralty of Toronto are about one one millionth as high as in a US presidential election. The President of the United States can declare wars, has VAST executive powers, appoints supreme court justices for life and is generally acknowldged to be the single most powerful individual on the face of the earth. In contrast, the mayor of Toronto is a glorified pothole fixer. The consequence of Bush becoming President was two wars, massive deficits and the world on the brink of economic collapse. The consequence of Ford as mayor - is we would have to grit our teeth for four years while an embarrassing buffoon is the "face of Toronto".
That is assuming that roll out of the conservative/corporate agenda does not take hold in the City. We are boundless in our optimism but the Left has not created any counter institutions to a Ford rule. Rather, it is a case of musical chairs. The music plays and everyone scrambles to take a seat. However, with the ever increasing choke hold of the Province denying cities money...each city competes with each other for lowest demoninator. Soon the rich and the middle vacate the city for the golden suburbs (705 and beyond) and you have a downtown of apartment blocks in slum-like conditions owned by private owners (probably living the good life in 705
) and vast tracks of parking lots. Towering skyscapers/catherdals worshipping money. Those who are left behind forced to scrap against each other. No, this is nonesense but the reality of many cities in the Third World and it is coming to Canada faster and faster.
Or as they say in the labour movement, "Viva la resolution".
One reform option seldom spoken of is the normal UK model of Council electing the Mayor. Of course that makes sense if councillors are elected on a party label, but few UK councils have one-party majorities anymore. Even with a diverse council, it makes sense to have a mayor who can work with the majority.
If Ford wins, and the majority of council don't support him, I can see the "parliamentary mayor" option suddenly becoming a popular reform topic.
Premature at this point, maybe. But wait and see.
Yeah, I just can't get over the fact that this clown is leading the opinion polls. Ford is the object of humour and ridicule even as far away as out here in BC. I can now imagine Mayor Ford being interviewed on CNN, with their American audience, over subject material akin to the following:
The British press would have a field day with this guy. lol
One reform option seldom spoken of is the normal UK model of Council electing the Mayor. Of course that makes sense if councillors are elected on a party label, but few UK councils have one-party majorities anymore. Even with a diverse council, it makes sense to have a mayor who can work with the majority.
If Ford wins, and the majority of council don't support him, I can see the "parliamentary mayor" option suddenly becoming a popular reform topic.
Premature at this point, maybe. But wait and see.
London has a direct election for mayor. Otherwise what you are describing is essentially creating a mini-parliamentary system at the municipal level.
Wow, have you not walked through Joe Pantalone's ward lately? It's unfettered condo development par excellence. Ugliest waterfront in the city is Trinity-Spadina. Thanks Joe!!
Olly. Joe's ward is the ward that has the CNE and Ontario Place in it. It was Joe who turned the CNE around, preserving the existing 1920's era art deco architecture of the fair, and preventing it from being sold off for condo development. Indeed the entire waterfront of Joe's was is almost totally dedicated to public works, parks and recereational facilities for the enjoyment of the general public.
Ward 20 is the one with the condo developments, mostly.
On Friday I was listening to John Tory interviewing Rob Ford. It was "personal" (Smithereen and Pants were on earlier in the week). When Tory asked Ford if there's was something he wanted to do, Ford replied that he wanted to learn French because it's a requirement for higher office. Just what is Ford's commitment to the mayor's job? Looks like he's aspiring for the real "Gravy trains".
I think Ford needs to learn to speak proper English before he bites off more than he can chew with trying to learn French!
In the poll reported in the star today 40% of those voting for Smitherman say that they are doing so strategically.
http://www.thestar.com/news/torontomayoralrace/article/876860--ford-smit...
"Forty per cent of Smitherman supporters say they are voting strategically. He is encouraging the practice, targeting centre-right supporters of Rocco Rossi until Rossi dropped out last week, and going especially hard after Pantalone’s “progressive” following, declaring: “A vote for Joe Pantalone is a vote for Rob Ford.”
Naturally the star twists the result trying to suggest this number would include Rocco Rossi supporters. The poll was taken on Thursday and Fridayl, Rossi had officially withdrawn on Wednesday. You don't say that you are voting strategically if your canditate has already dropped out. The only conclusion then would be that those 40% would vote for Pantalone which would dramatically alter the standings.
If people just voted for who they wanted Pantalone would be at 32% and Smitherman would be at 24%. Surely then the drift of strategic support would have gone to Pants. Thank you very much toronto star for a campaign of complete disinfomation and propaganda beyond what would be even expected for a liberal partisan rag.
If people really do like Pantalone so much better than Smitherman - why wasn't Pantalone ahead of him in the polls for the past six months?? I'm assuming that the 40% of Smitherman voters who say they are voting strategically would include a lot of former Thompson and Rossi supporters who see Smitherman as the lesser of two (or three) evils now that their candidate has dropped out.
Quite possibly because polling has more to do with manipulating public opinion rather than just measuring it.
I suppose someone who originally claimed they were supporting Rossi or Thompson could claim they were strategically voting for Smitherman rather than not voting at all: although that is not what is really meant by strategic voting.
Even so if only half of that 40% were for Pantalone than that would mean he and Smitherman would be tied at 24%. It is also unlikely that all those who prefered Rossi or Thompson would not necessarily prefer Smitherman over Pantalone, so Joe still might of had a lead. The point is that the optics of Smitherman being the only one who could beat Ford would be lost and that could have meant the anyone but Ford swing would go to him instead. There seems to be a lot of support for Pantalone than was really reflected in other polls the other relevant figure in this poll is that Pantalone is second choice for 35% of the total, based on that Pantalone would win a run off either against Ford or Smitherman.
Vote Joey Pants. I don't live there* but I don't see how you can't??? [*Lived my first 30 years in TO]
In the Nanos poll, even when people are asked other questions like "who is most trustworthy?" and "who is most competent?" Pantalone is a distant third every time.
Meanwhile, while Toronto is poised to elect neo-fascist Rob Ford as mayor - Calgary of all places is electing a new mayor tonight a left of centre Muslim named Naheed Nenshi.
If people really do like Pantalone so much better than Smitherman - why wasn't Pantalone ahead of him in the polls for the past six months?? I'm assuming that the 40% of Smitherman voters who say they are voting strategically would include a lot of former Thompson and Rossi supporters who see Smitherman as the lesser of two (or three) evils now that their candidate has dropped out.
For someone who spends 99% of their life talking about media and optics, you don't even exhibit a freshman's understanding of marketting. Or perhaps you do, and really all you are doing is being deliberately obtuse on point for political effect.
What the polls show is that Pantalone is more popular than Smitherman, even now, its just because people don't think he can win, they aren't going to vote for him.
Except that Pantalone has been wayyy behind Smitherman in every single poll since January and if in fact people liked Pantalone but just didn't want to vote for him because they didn't think he could win - he wouldn't be a distant third when people ae asked who is most trustworthy and who is most competent etc...
I said from the start that he would make a good mayor and he is a good man, but he is a weak candidate - there is no "there" there.
Pantalone endorsed by his opponents
Actually its quite apparent that there is a clique in the NDP directly undermining his candidacy more or less arguing what you have been arguing. Indeed the NDP is apparently so corrupt now that there is not a single NDP volunteer working on Pantalone's campaign in Ward 20, because they are busy trying to get Jack Layton's son a job as Joe's replacement in Ward 19.
Who knows what might have happened for Joey if Olivia Chow had bothered to write up an email and send it to her constituency list, asking for help and support from her supporters in Trinity Spadina. Maybe 1 or 2 would have shown up.
This kind of nepotistic patronage which killed the NDP in Ward 20 with the whole Helen Kenedy affair. A repeat now in Ward 19 should finish off the rest of the organization in Trinity Spadina for good.
Meanwhile, while Toronto is poised to elect neo-fascist Rob Ford as mayor - Calgary of all places is electing a new mayor tonight a left of centre Muslim named Naheed Nenshi.
Stockholm... well I guess that describing Nenshi as "left of centre" very much depends on where the pole marking the center is actually located (although I do plan on seriously enjoying going "neener, neener" in the direction of certain Central Canadian Overlords when the results are declared final).
It would, however, be more accurately described as the candidate who was connected with the Federal Conservative old boy network (McIvor) and the candidate connected with the Provincial Progressive Conservative old boy network (Higgins) went down at the hands of the candidate who was not connected to the old boy networks (Nenshi). This is still a good thing though, even if it does mess up my streak of never having voted for a winning candidate.
Stockholm... well I guess that describing Nenshi as "left of centre" very much depends on where the pole marking the center is actually located (although I do plan on seriously enjoying going "neener, neener" in the direction of certain Central Canadian Overlords when the results are declared final).
Is Nenshi left-of-centre in terms of Calgary politics?
Interesting column by Royson James. When i saw the headline "Pantalone backers have little choice", i expected the usual histrionics about how we have no choice but to support Smitherman - but in the end the column is actually more of an exhortation to stick with Pantalone!
http://www.thestar.com/article/877406--real-pantalone-backers-have-littl...
"So, if you like Smitherman’s typically Liberal platform — spend a little, tighten the budget, build a little, cut a little — and think this is not a carefully constructed platform to draw support left and right, then that’s where your vote should safely rest.
But if you don’t believe in contracting out garbage services, studying incineration as an option, freezing taxes and cutting staff through attrition, you are out of step with both Smitherman and Ford. One’s better only by degrees.
Why, then, would you abandon Pantalone, the only candidate that fits your vision of the city.
Stay in, Joe. That, too, is a worthy strategy."
Actually its quite apparent that there is a clique in the NDP directly undermining his candidacy more or less arguing what you have been arguing. Indeed the NDP is apparently so corrupt now that there is not a single NDP volunteer working on Pantalone's campaign in Ward 20, because they are busy trying to get Jack Layton's son a job as Joe's replacement in Ward 19.
Who knows what might have happened for Joey if Olivia Chow had bothered to write up an email and send it to her constituency list, asking for help and support from her supporters in Trinity Spadina. Maybe 1 or 2 would have shown up.
This kind of nepotistic patronage which killed the NDP in Ward 20 with the whole Helen Kenedy affair. A repeat now in Ward 19 should finish off the rest of the organization in Trinity Spadina for good.
Further to that point, Joe has the same number of sign location on Royal York Rd in Etobicoke (where Ford is polling highest), that he does on Parkside Drive near High Park, which is prime NDP country. I'm having an increasingly hard time trying to convince myself that this isn't an inside job against Joe.
My observations are that his campaign was staffed by amateurs - nice people, but totally unqualified to run even a campaign for Catholic School Trustee. I mean, if two weeks into October they don't have any signs on Bathurst, that is a problem. I know there are smarter people than that in the NDP, but none of them seen to have helped out Joe.
Because of this, Joe's campaign has allowed people, mostly other lib-left types ironically enough, to frame Joe as "uncharismatic" and "unable to win", as opposed to being presented a serious, seasoned politician who isn't a blowhard and has a plan.
I assume Pantalone has been given NDP lists etc... since i keep getting calls from his campaign asking for money and asking me to volunteer etc... and the only way they would have my name is because I'm an NDP member. I also got a robo-call for Joe from Jack layton a while ago.
No one loathes Smitherman more than activists and organizers in the NDP. If they thought he had the SLIGHTEST chance of winning they would probably be doing more - but quite frankly this is the stage of the campaign where there has to be some "triage". Resources are scarce and it seems like a no brainer to me that when you have progressive incumbents in the fight of their lives to hold on that is much a higher priority than flushing time and money down the drain on a mayoral campaign that is going no where and has zero chance of winning. If Ford or Smitherman becomes mayor - it won't matter whether Pantalone got 15% of the vote or 18% of the vote, but it WILL matter whether one or two more progressives are elected to council and are in a position to block any regressive policies the new mayor tries to implement.
Forget the absurd conspiracy theories. There might be some big "L" Liberals like Shelley Carroll who might have garnered some genuine NDP organizational support at Pantalone's expense, but Smitherman is not one of them.The hatred between him and the NDP in Toronto is mutual. If NDP members don't feel motivated to work for Pantalone - it means that his campaign has failed to motivate people.
frankly this is the stage of the campaign where there has to be some "triage".
My point is that they've been triaging since January.
My observations are that his campaign was staffed by amateurs - nice people, but totally unqualified to run even a campaign for Catholic School Trustee.
Actually Pantalone's campaign is being managed by a Tory named John Laschinger who used to work for Mike Harris and he is considered to be the best in the business...I guess he must be losing his midas touch this time.
One thing, to be fair, that I think the political pundits can be faulted for is one key assumption about the campaign: that there is an "anybody but Ford vote". It appears that there is just as powerful, if not more so, an "anybody but Smitherman vote". This was particularly fatal for Pantalone, as his campaign team likely assumed that they were fighting for the same universe of voters as Smitherman when, in fact, they were probably being chipped away at by both Smitherman and Ford (notice the 20% of NDPers and 30% of Libs who, in previous polls identified as Ford supporters).
I can't tell you how many people have assured me that Rossi and Thompson dropping out would hand the race to Smitherman. They have dropped out, and it's still neck and neck, or Ford in a slight lead, depending on who you believe.
Had Pantalone's campaign been able to position him as an anti-Smitherman candidate they might have been higher in the polls right now. A little tricky to do when you are an establishment candidate, but not impossible. Some populist rhetoric in his leaflets, and messaging aimed at running against Queen's Park might have helped.
In any case, it is an academic discussion now.
My observations are that his campaign was staffed by amateurs - nice people, but totally unqualified to run even a campaign for Catholic School Trustee.
Actually Pantalone's campaign is being managed by a Tory named John Laschinger who used to work for Mike Harris and he is considered to be the best in the business...I guess he must be losing his midas touch this time.
Laschinger is one guy.
I can't tell you how many people have assured me that Rossi and Thompson dropping out would hand the race to Smitherman. They have dropped out, and it's still neck and neck, or Ford in a slight lead, depending on who you believe.
I don't of anyone who claimed that Rossi and Thompson would HAND the race to Smitherman. But it is fair to say thyat it would help him narrow the gap which it did. When it was a five way race, Ford led Smitherman by 24 points. After Rossi and thompson dropped out the gap narrowed to 3 points. Draw your own conclusions.
Who knows what might have happened for Joey if Olivia Chow had bothered to write up an email and send it to her constituency list, asking for help and support from her supporters in Trinity Spadina. Maybe 1 or 2 would have shown up.
She wuld have been busted for violating the election rules.
Man are you ignorant.
I'm sure there must be 2000 signed up NDP members in Trinity-Spadina. I don't know where they are.
Who knows what might have happened for Joey if Olivia Chow had bothered to write up an email and send it to her constituency list, asking for help and support from her supporters in Trinity Spadina. Maybe 1 or 2 would have shown up.
She wuld have been busted for violating the election rules.
Man are you ignorant.
So. You are saying that Olivia can not send out an email to her constiuents saying that she endorses Joe Pantalone? She is allowed to say as much in the media but not via Email? My understanding is that the rules generally cover sending out election campaign material for a candidate because this constitutes a donation. This is not the same as someone offering an opinion.
Hence unions can send out their own literature offering opinions on candidates, but not actually send out material that otherwise would be campaign literature from the candidate, because sending out campaign material is an "in-kind" contribution of a service that would have to be valued as a contribution.
For example, no one seemed to have a problem with the Provincial Liberal Party sending out 75,000 copies of this endorsement for Smitherman, direcly to residents:
Perhaps you can enlighten me and save me from my ignorance?
"Asking for help and support" is campaign material.
I am running from memory but I don't recall anything like 2,000 NDP members in TS, even at peak after the leadership race. That would be about 2% of the population.
Olivia had about 2,000 campaign workers when she first won election, but that stripped the rest of Toronto pretty bare, I think. Also, even there more than half of the ones I knew had union connections. Seeing a lot of union supporters does not mean there is no NDP support.
Further, what was the expected relative utility of a campaign worker in TS vs a campaign worker elsewhere? Note: that is different from the current relative utility. If Joe was going to win he needed to hold his base without effort and make strides elsewhere. Do you know that NDP members from TS are not working for Joe elsewhere, and if so, how?
You mean that the above pictured flyer sent out by the Provincial Liberals to 75,000 saying "Join us in contributing to make George Smitherman Mayor", is campaign material, and a breach of the campaign financing rules they themselves wrote?
1. A federal political party registered under the Canada Elections Act (Canada) or any federal constituency association or registered candidate at a federal election endorsed by that party.
2. A provincial political party, constituency association, registered candidate or leadership contestant registered under the Election Finances Act.
3. The Crown in right of Canada or Ontario, a municipality or local board. 1996, c. 32, Sched., s. 70 (4); 2002, c. 17, Sched. D, s. 27.
Municipal Election Act for Ontario
Union activists asking each other for "help and support" and offering opinions in campaigns have to list each email they send and account for it as an in-kind contribution to the campaign?
... it seems so cue, based upon your regulation posting, perhaps a claim should be made to the Municipal election body against the Liberals.
I think it would be argued that they are simply offering an "opinion" as individuals. I didn't see the flyer, but I doubt it has the LPO logo on it. Indeed, Smitherman may even have accounted for it somewhere in his financing. I don't know. In any case, I hardly think that the Olivia sending out an e-mail missive to her constituent list would qualify as campaign material. I think it would be her offering an opinion, just as she might offer an opinion on Joe Pantalone's web site, or in the press.
I'm sure there must be 2000 signed up NDP members in Trinity-Spadina. I don't know where they are.
I highly, highly doubt it. My guess is that it would be more like 750 tops.
I think it would be argued that they are simply offering an "opinion" as individuals. I didn't see the flyer, but I doubt it has the LPO logo on it. Indeed, Smitherman may even have accounted for it somewhere in his financing. I don't know. In any case, I hardly think that the Olivia sending out an e-mail missive to her constituent list would qualify as campaign material. I think it would be her offering an opinion, just as she might offer an opinion on Joe Pantalone's web site, or in the press.
Actually, if by consituent list, you mean the voters list- that in fact would be a violation (and a very serious one) of the federal Elections Act.
If on the other hand you mean a contact list- which probably has at most several hundred (to maybe say 1500) names of donors, supporters and those who have wrote, called or visited the office AND given an address and indicated they were supportive that is a different kettle of fish. One would assume that it may have been done- do have evidence to the contrary. I certainly have received facebook messages (you know those group thingies) indicating support and suggestions to help out from Ms. Chow.
By the way that Liberal flyer- if it does not violate the letter of the municipal act certainly violates the spirit of it. I hope someone from Toronto filed a complaint of some kind.
I'm sure there must be 2000 signed up NDP members in Trinity-Spadina. I don't know where they are.
I highly, highly doubt it. My guess is that it would be more like 750 tops.
There were 300 members or so in St. Paul's.
TS has maybe three times the St. Paul's membership. Possibly a bit more, but not much.
You're probably right. But ca. 1000 is a pretty big group, and we could use some help getting Joe's signs up in the riding.
Just asking, and I am not being snarky, has anyone asked Ms Chow or any of her staff, or the RA if they would send something out asking for volunteers? I am sure it has been done, but the older I get the more I realize that we make such assumptions at our peril sometimes. You would be surprised at the numbers of people who want to help and are just waiting for someone to ask them. I know that is counter-intuative for people like you LP who is obviously very involved, but I have seen it time and time again over the years.
If T-S has 1000 members, then they are down from a few years ago.
I think it would be argued that they are simply offering an "opinion" as individuals. I didn't see the flyer, but I doubt it has the LPO logo on it. Indeed, Smitherman may even have accounted for it somewhere in his financing. I don't know. In any case, I hardly think that the Olivia sending out an e-mail missive to her constituent list would qualify as campaign material. I think it would be her offering an opinion, just as she might offer an opinion on Joe Pantalone's web site, or in the press.
Actually, if by consituent list, you mean the voters list- that in fact would be a violation (and a very serious one) of the federal Elections Act.
If on the other hand you mean a contact list- which probably has at most several hundred (to maybe say 1500) names of donors, supporters and those who have wrote, called or visited the office AND given an address and indicated they were supportive that is a different kettle of fish. One would assume that it may have been done- do have evidence to the contrary. I certainly have received facebook messages (you know those group thingies) indicating support and suggestions to help out from Ms. Chow.
By the way that Liberal flyer- if it does not violate the letter of the municipal act certainly violates the spirit of it. I hope someone from Toronto filed a complaint of some kind.
Geeze, talk about prevarication on point. I am game. A constituents list is not the voters list, which is actually a list that is publicly available anyway, but the list of her constituents that she has contact with. The evidence that Chow sent no communication is that no one I know who gets regular bulletins from Chow received any communications about Joe. I am not on Ms. Chow's Facebook "thingie".
All in all, one really has to simply go by the evidence of this web site to see exactly how tepid the support for Joe has been in the NDP official circles. The only posters who are defending the NDP organization on this issue are people in the NDP who are not from Toronto and not involved, while those NDPr's who are in Toronto have consistently argued that mayoralty race is lost, that Joe is a substandard candidate, and even that they might be convinced to vote for Smitherman. And then finally that what is really important is to ensure that Jack Layton's son is gainfully employed.
All others on this board who are actively supporting Joe's campaign directly as volunteers are not members of the NDP.
That speaks volumes about the support that Joe is getting from his party.
Just because the NDP might have - say - 750 members in Trinity-Spadina doesn't mean that all Olivia Chow or Rosario Marchese isw snap their fingers and the next thing you know - 750 people have taken three weeks vacation and are devoting the whole time to volunteering for Joe Pantalone. People have to to WANT to do it as individuals. If people feel more motivated by council races than by Joe's mayoralty campaign - that speaks volumes.
Five would have been fine. Then the NDP would at least outnumber the number of volunteers that Joe has working in this ward who are not in the NDP. Forgive me if I am wrong but my impression is that you are in ward 20, and you are actually doing work helping get Jack's son a job in Ward 19.
Case in point.
Pantalone has been the NDP city councillor for large parts of Trinity-Spadina for the past 30 years - surely he has a list of names and contact info in his address book of all the NDP people who have worked on his municipal campaigns all these years. If not one single solitary person from his own organization that won him so many terms on city council wants to work on his mayoral campaign - what conclusions are we to draw?
No one person owns or commands the NDP in Toronto. Joe Pantalone has access to the same lists etc... as any other NDP candidate provincially or federally.
I think it would be argued that they are simply offering an "opinion" as individuals. I didn't see the flyer, but I doubt it has the LPO logo on it. Indeed, Smitherman may even have accounted for it somewhere in his financing. I don't know. In any case, I hardly think that the Olivia sending out an e-mail missive to her constituent list would qualify as campaign material. I think it would be her offering an opinion, just as she might offer an opinion on Joe Pantalone's web site, or in the press.
Actually, if by consituent list, you mean the voters list- that in fact would be a violation (and a very serious one) of the federal Elections Act.
If on the other hand you mean a contact list- which probably has at most several hundred (to maybe say 1500) names of donors, supporters and those who have wrote, called or visited the office AND given an address and indicated they were supportive that is a different kettle of fish. One would assume that it may have been done- do have evidence to the contrary. I certainly have received facebook messages (you know those group thingies) indicating support and suggestions to help out from Ms. Chow.
By the way that Liberal flyer- if it does not violate the letter of the municipal act certainly violates the spirit of it. I hope someone from Toronto filed a complaint of some kind.
Geeze, talk about prevarication on point. I am game. A constituents list is not the voters list, which is actually a list that is publicly available anyway, but the list of her constituents that she has contact with. The evidence that Chow sent no communication is that no one I know who gets regular bulletins from Chow received any communications about Joe. I am not on Ms. Chow's Facebook "thingie".
All in all, one really has to simply go by the evidence of this web site to see exactly how tepid the support for Joe has been in the NDP official circles. The only posters who are defending the NDP organization on this issue are people in the NDP who are not from Toronto and not involved, while those NDPr's who are in Toronto have consistently argued that mayoralty race is lost, that Joe is a substandard candidate, and even that they might be convinced to vote for Smitherman. And then finally that what is really important is to ensure that Jack Layton's son is gainfully employed.
All others on this board who are actively supporting Joe's campaign directly as volunteers are not members of the NDP.
That speaks volumes about the support that Joe is getting from his party.
WTF are you going on about. The voters list is not a public document. Not in any way, shape or form. Try going to City Hall and asking for the data on a particular individual not in your house or related directly to you. Parties are given the data at election time and then must return or destroy all copies of the lists.
I said if you are talking about a contact list that is a different kettle of fish. I assume the best in people generally so give Ms Chow the benefit of the doubt. However, what part of essentially agreeing with you if it was a contact list you were talking about didn't you like?
I am telling you that no one I know that regularly recieved any direct communication from Chow through her list about Pantalone. Stockholm must be on this list perhaps he can publish a copy of that communication and resolve this issue.
Nothing on Facebook either, going back to July, as far as I can tell. Not even an notice that she endorsed.
Actually candidates, not parties, can get copies of the list, and as such, I think this qualifies them as public documents. The fact that access is regulated does not mean they are not public.
Maybe you need to think more about what it takes to be an attractive municipal candidate who inspires enthusiasm - rather than that searching high and low for scapegoats and people to blame just because you may not get the result you like come election day.
By which you mean to say that you never recieved any communication from Chow about her endorsement of Pantalone via email.
Thanks!
No, I received e-mails from Jack Layton endorsing Pantalone and urging me to donate and volunteer. I don't tend to keep old e-mails and I'm not going to subject myself to another one of your twisted Stalinist show trial-style interrogations. maybe you should spend more time knocking on doors for Pantalone and less time blaming other people for having other priorities in the election.
Other people's priorities seem to be getting the son of the leader a job.
Otherwise it is just an observation, either the NDP made no effort to support the only progressive candidate in the mayoralty election, or the organization is completely obliterated in Trinity Spadina.
Maybe you need to think more about what it takes to be an attractive municipal candidate who inspires enthusiasm - rather than that searching high and low for scapegoats and people to blame just because you may not get the result you like come election day.
Screaming about the gravy train seems to work. As does trying to be all things to all people, which seems to work better when your opponent is a drunken wife-beater.
You see, this is the problem, Stockholm. Winning an election is, largely, an exercise in marketing. Furthermore, in a depoliticized country where the major parties all resemble one another, the result is almost always predetermined the minute the writ drops. Unless one side makes a serious tactical error, the result won't change.
In the abstract, I don't care what makes a candidate "attractive". This year, "attractive" means trying to scrap transit city, screaming about waste and inventing figures about how badly in debt we are. Is that "attractive" to you? The implication of this, is that if you actually want meaningful social change then you have to do something in between those 30-60 day periods where peopld are supposedly paying attention.
Well said Stockhom. This election many of us will get a mayor that we don't like or who doesn't inspire us. In fact it has been an election of a whole list of uninspiring candidates. Not sure how the largest city in the country could have attacted such a poor field.
There is a close race with a rightwing candidate to keep progressive representation in Ward 19. Every single solitary person in the NDP in T-S is a VOLUNTEER who DONATES their valuable time out of the goodness of their heart as they see fit. If they would rather put time into a close race for council as opposed to a no-hope campaign for mayor that's their business. As it happens people campaigning for Mike Layton are also dropping Pantalone brochures and killing two birds with one stone - sounds good to me.
I'm not sure why any of this matters to you since you've made it quite clear for years that you consider all electoral politics to be a waste of time and you bragged about how you voted Liberal in the election in a fit of pique against the NDP.
As I pointed out. It is pathetic that the NDP must commit an all out effort to win a seat that has been solidly NDP since 1980, using a candidate with high name recognition in liu of doing anything else. As for the rumoured "joint effort" Mike Layton has upward 2000 signs up in 19, while Pantalone supporters are still waiting for theirs... what's up with that?
Ward 19 in its various incarnations has not been "solidly NDP" for 30 years. In fact in 1980 it was won by rightwinger Gordon Chong and then by Jack layton in 1982 and then after that it was basically Pantalone's personal fiefdom - there is no guarantee that the ward stays progressive in the absence of a popular incumbent. While the NDP has won Trinity-Spadina federal and provincially lately - its always been a very hard fought contest and in every case the Liberal and Tory vote combined was larger than the NDP vote. Ward 19 is totally winnable for a well-resourced rightwing candidate with support from the local Liberals.
TO council positions are full time?
what is the wage?
They make about $95k/year
Thanks, thought maybe they would be partime positions, with much more reliance on staff.
Cue has a point, if people came out and did some signs even, momentum could change.
Ward 19 in its various incarnations has not been "solidly NDP" for 30 years. In fact in 1980 it was won by rightwinger Gordon Chong and then by Jack layton in 1982 and then after that it was basically Pantalone's personal fiefdom - there is no guarantee that the ward stays progressive in the absence of a popular incumbent. While the NDP has won Trinity-Spadina federal and provincially lately - its always been a very hard fought contest and in every case the Liberal and Tory vote combined was larger than the NDP vote. Ward 19 is totally winnable for a well-resourced rightwing candidate with support from the local Liberals.
You mean to say the Mike Layton may not be as "attractive" as outgoing incumbent Joe Pantalone, and so needs all the help he can get from the organization?
"Rob Ford celebrated Halloween at the 519 debate last night; apparently he came dressed as George Smitherman." —Justyn Stayshyn tweet
Smitherman sparks fury with AIDS activists
p.s. Once again I will state that I am a member of the NDP. And I've pretty much committed myself full-time to doing volunteer work for Joe's campaign for just over a month. I exist! I do! Bull shit rhetoric to score points kills unicorns!
Just asking, and I am not being snarky, has anyone asked Ms Chow or any of her staff, or the RA if they would send something out asking for volunteers? I am sure it has been done, but the older I get the more I realize that we make such assumptions at our peril sometimes. You would be surprised at the numbers of people who want to help and are just waiting for someone to ask them. I know that is counter-intuative for people like you LP who is obviously very involved, but I have seen it time and time again over the years.
If you boys could stop peeing on each other for a minute do you think you might address this well-meant question. Has anyone on the ground actually asked for a volunteer call? Grassroots people may not know you need help. Ask them!
Closing for length.