Ontario polling thread Nov. 21/10

105 posts / 0 new
Last post
Stockholm

Cueball wrote:

Really? I thought ETT endorsed Joe Pantalone, and not George Smitherman.

Same with OSSTF

I understand why you are trolling for Liberal support, but at least you could stay within the facts.

I'm talking about provincial politics. A lot of the brass in the Ontario teachers unions are big "L" Liberals and as a result OSSTF and TFO and OECTA tend to be very neutral between the Liberals and the NDP.

Cueball Cueball's picture

As I said before. Why don't you give up pretending?

jrootham

Cueball, whoever Stockholm is, and however annoying he can be, there is no evidence from his writing that he is a Liberal.

Many of his comments are about the state of reality, and however snarkily he puts them his perceptions of that reality match mine more than yours do.

Outside of that, his descriptions about how things ought to be are well within the range of opinion that exists within the NDP.

Edit:  typo changed the sense.

 

Cueball Cueball's picture

The fact that the NDP is filled with qua-Liberals such as you and Stockholm, has not escaped my notice. My point, is that rather than splitting the Liberal vote between two camps, you could easily work from within the Liberal party and be "relatively progressive". Clarity, on who you are and what you actually support is good.

Sean in Ottawa

I think there is enough room in the political spectrum to both detect some daylight between the Liberals and the Conservatives while at the same time acknowledging them both as capitalist parties that are miles away from the public interest.

I don't feel the need to say the Cons and the Liberals are identical to reject them both or see a huge gulf between the NDP and the Liberals.

Sean in Ottawa

Comprehensive is the opposite of wedge-- policies that affect large numebrs of people, that seek to change significant things-- a comprehensive policy might be a major tax adjustment affecting most people while a wedge policy would be like the last election -- small business hydro rates in the north -- cute but you don't elected on it.

Sean in Ottawa

Comprehensive could include a vow to end the reliance on private-public enterprises.

Affordable housing and education are comprehensive policies either affecting most people or affecting large groups significantly.

 

Evening Star

Between some of the recent discussion and a comment from another thread, I'm wondering:  Is this board mainly meant to be a space for people who identify as "progressive" to discuss political issues or for NDP members and activists to discuss policy and strategy?  Serious question.  If the latter, I'll know to leave some threads and discussions alone.

Evening Star

(I was honestly interested in hearing other perspectives on the green energy programmes though.)

Geoff OB

Stockholm may be partly right, suggesting that the Liberals are popular with some teachers.  However, that sure as hell isn't the case in the community college system.  McGuinty has supported the college's refusal to count the ballots for our part-time unionization drive.  As a result, both the UN and the ILO has condemned Ontario for its anti-labour policy.  Also, he has kept per student funding at the bottom of the heap, compared to the other provinces.  He may appear to be the 'education premier' to some, but he's just another common sense revolutionary to college employees. 

Although, obviously I have no interest in seeing Hudak and his knuckle-dragging party re-elected, I hope the opposition parties are successful in reducing the Liberals to a minority, which is the most optimistic outcome from an NDP point of view.  (Yes, I know an NDP sweep would be even better, but I'm just thinking in terms of the real world.)

jrootham

I do not and have never supported the Liberal party.

It is not a redeemable  organization.

It is entirely about doing whatever it takes to achieve power, including supporting desirable policy, when the alternative is losing elections.  Of course, what they say and what they do are entirely different.

Given a FPTP electoral system any party that wants to elect members must operate a broad tent.  If you don't want to do that, all you are doing is jerking off into the wind.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Evening Star wrote:

Between some of the recent discussion and a comment from another thread, I'm wondering:  Is this board mainly meant to be a space for people who identify as "progressive" to discuss political issues or for NDP members and activists to discuss policy and strategy?  Serious question.  If the latter, I'll know to leave some threads and discussions alone.

Short answer-- both.

If you discuss political issues from a left perspective-- yes you will bump in to NDP politics - there is no party that is progressive either bigger than the NDP or even close in size to the NDP.

When you discuss politics from a progressive point of view in a country controlled by Conservatives-- then I think it is only natural to want to change that-- and if you want to change that then issues of strategy naturally come up.

I think you will find that there are threads and posts that do not appeal to everyone. You have to learn to skim and find what you want and be aware that everyone says what they are interested and engages in their own way-- it is hardly reasonable to expect all posts to be on topics that interest you.

For myself I am indeed interested in both specific NDP politics and strategies and analysis and general progressive views on many things. I don't see why they would not co-exist. I certainyl do nto either expect everyone to be interested in what I have to say or assume that people should write what I am interested in reading -- and in fact one day I'll be more interested in one thing and another it will be somethign else.

Evening Star

I agree that those things should coexist and I don't expect every thread to appeal to me personally.  (For the most part, this thread does!)  Comments like this:

Quote:
Perhaps you should just join the OLP and get it over with Stockholm and "work for change" from "within"? You could join the "relatively progressive" camp in the Liberal party.

Quote:
The fact that the NDP is filled with qua-Liberals such as you and Stockholm, has not escaped my notice. My point, is that rather than splitting the Liberal vote between two camps, you could easily work from within the Liberal party and be "relatively progressive".

just had me wondering whether these threads were meant to be open to people who identify as progressive but might not necessarily be partisan NDP activists in every context, who might even sometimes vote Liberal if only because the alternative seems worse.  It's all good though.  I suspect now that there was just some long-running interpersonal issue that I'm not a party to.

Evening Star

And BA, I'm sorry if I seemed belligerent earlier.  I'm honestly just paranoid about the prospect of Harris-style (anti-)government returning to power.  I actually agree with your point that name-calling and histrionics are counterproductive.

adma

Don't have the regionals on me; but if I'm not mistaken, weren't the Liberals particularly badly off in SW Ontario?  Makes me wonder if Horwath might have blue-collar regional pull...

Evening Star

Really?  Puppatello and Duncan did pretty well here last time.  I could see these (Windsor) ridings going NDP, since the NDP owns them federally, but the mayoral election leaves me a little sceptical.

Aristotleded24

Are there any Ontario seats that are PC-NDP marginals? Certainly investing resources here and knocking off PC MPPs will certainly make  Hudak majority less likely.

Lord Palmerston

Oshawa is the obvious one, the Libs have been the third-place party there both federally and provincially for quite some time.

But with a collapsing Liberal vote and an increased PC and NDP vote, maybe some more will emerge, particularly in the SW industrial heartland.

Life, the unive...

The Liberals are going down, especially in SW Ontario.  The question will be, will progressive voters stay on a sinking ship, or will they get on a more secure vessel.  Every seat that goes from Liberal to NDP is one less seat that goes to the Cons.  That is the math that is going to matter, otherwise ever voter that stays with the Liberals will be voting for a Conservative majority.

adma

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Oshawa is the obvious one, the Libs have been the third-place party there both federally and provincially for quite some time.

But with a collapsing Liberal vote and an increased PC and NDP vote, maybe some more will emerge, particularly in the SW industrial heartland.

Definitely agreed there--as it stands, the nearest thing to an Oshawa might be the unexpected three-way marginal situation that emerged in Sarnia last time.

Historically, Cambridge has also been more of a PC-NDP marginal--but suburbanization together with post-Rae decline have worked on behalf of the Liberals, instead--not that it's terminal or anything.  And remember: with Gerry Martiniuk retiring, it's now an open seat...

autoworker autoworker's picture

Evening Star wrote:

Really?  Puppatello and Duncan did pretty well here last time.  I could see these (Windsor) ridings going NDP, since the NDP owns them federally, but the mayoral election leaves me a little sceptical.

I think your right about Duncan and Puppatello, but the NDP's prospects depend on one or both retiring before the election, I think (either may not want to sit in Opposition--- particularly Duncan, who could make serious coin in the private sector), and the the Dippers would need a high profile candidate who can stay on message... the Tories have little chance of winning either-- although they have a good shot in the county (Essex) with Crozier retiring, and Brister getting the PC nomination. 

Your concerns about residual anti-labour sentiment, still festering from the CUPE strike and CAW/Chrysler negotiations are well taken, and may effect the NDP's chances.  Windsor, as you know is still hurting badly, and people are in an ugly mood.  Expect a 'down and dirty' election here (witness the recent Mayoral campaign).

Also, I wouldn't take the NDP's Federal seats for granted.  They've been Liberal before.

Stockholm

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Are there any Ontario seats that are PC-NDP marginals? Certainly investing resources here and knocking off PC MPPs will certainly make  Hudak majority less likely.

Apart from Oshawa the answer is NO. Keep in mind that the PCs did really badly in the last two Ontario elections and only have 26 seats right now at Queens Park and all of them are either rock-ribbed rural seats where the NDP is never competitive or else are upper middle class exurban seats like Burlington - there the NDP is also not competitive.

Wilf Day

Stockholm wrote:
McGuinty as the incumbent premier will have the right to meet the leg. and propose a throne speech. If he puts enough goodies into it for the NDP - he may survive. The only way that Hudak becomes Premier is if he can "out-bid" McGuinty in terms of what he's willing to offer the NDP. Any chance of that???

In 1985 Frank Miller had been the most right-wing of the four leadership candidates (by the final ballot both the progressive Roy McMurtry and the centrist Timbrell had endorsed the mildly progressive Larry Grossman, but leakage to the front-runner put Miller narrowly over the top), yet even Frank Miller bid for NDP support. After three weeks of negotiations, Peterson won, but during the negotiations Miller's team met with the NDP too, and Miller said "I believe this quite strongly, that the NDP are bargaining in good faith." 

Hudak could make a similar bid.

Stockholm wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:
Are there any Ontario seats that are PC-NDP marginals? Certainly investing resources here and knocking off PC MPPs will certainly make  Hudak majority less likely.
Apart from Oshawa the answer is NO.

In 2007, yes. But in 2008 (same boundaries) we find the Liberals third in Hamilton Centre, Hamilton Mountain, Welland, London-Fanshawe, Sarnia-Lambton, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, and Sault Ste. Marie.

adma

Wilf Day wrote:
In 2007, yes. But in 2008 (same boundaries) we find the Liberals third in Hamilton Centre, Hamilton Mountain, Welland, London-Fanshawe, Sarnia-Lambton, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West, and Sault Ste. Marie.

And all but one of those are already held provincially by either the NDP or the Liberals.

Life, the unive...

Which is why the strategy has to be to take those Liberal seats that are going down, and they are going down and turn them into NDP seats.  Anything less is an iron-clad guarentee of a Conservative majority.  The Liberals can not save themselves, and for the good of the province, progressives should not be trying to save them either.  The only hope is to turn those seats into NDP ones.  Trying to prop up the corpse of an arrogant government past its due date will spell a disaster for progressive government.  In a couple of seats, well one really, the choice might be Green (BGOS), but other than that the goal has to be switching those Liberal seats to the NDP.  It would be nice to say that this is the goal for the Conservatives, but given the seats they hold and their movement in the polls, this is not likely realistic in all but a few ridings right now.  This is the only chance to stop a Hudak government, or at the very least keep it to a minority.

I haven't seen the regionals, but from what I understand is that in SW Ontario - where the next government will be determined- the Liberals are slipping into 3rd.  Time to re-frame how we look at who is electable.

NorthReport

 Ontario Conservatives ahead and Hudak Most Trusted to Manage the Economy: Nanos Ontario Poll (Completed March 11th)

 
Nik on the Numbers

A recent Nanos Ontario survey suggests that the Hudak PCs enjoy a nine point lead over the McGuinty Liberals.

Ontarians were more likely to cite healthcare (31%)rather than jobs/the economy (15%) as the most important provincial issue of concern.

Asked which party leaders they trusted to manage a series of issues, Ontarians gave Tim Hudak the trust advantage on issues related to taxes and the economy, while McGuinty and Hudak were tied on trust in terms of managing healthcare and education. Of note, between 20 and 28 percent of Ontarians were unsure who to trust on any of the main issues.

Hudak had a five point advantage on the best Premier front over McGuinty. Importantly, one Ontarian in four were still unsure about which leader would make the best Premier.

Research also suggests that Ontarians believed that the provincial government could afford more money to Ontario's cities for roads, social services and public transportation.

The detailed tables and methodology are posted on our website where you can also register to receive automatic polling updates.

Methodology
Between March 8th and March 11th, 2011, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 504 Ontarians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 504 Ontarians is accurate plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 451 decided voters, the survey is accurate plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples.

Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for PROVINCIALLY, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Preference)

The numbers in parenthesis denote the one month change from the Nanos Ontario Omnibus survey completed between January 31st and February 3rd, 2011 (n=440 decided voters).

Ontario (n=451 decided voters)
PC 44% (+1)
Liberal 35% (-4)
NDP 16% (+3)
Green 4% (-1)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important PROVINCIAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]

The numbers in parenthesis denote the one month change from the Nanos Ontario Omnibus survey completed between January 31st and February 3rd, 2011 (n=506).

Healthcare 30.6% (-0.2)
Job/the economy 14.8% (-3.2)
High taxes 13.6% (-3.0)
Education 7.2% (-2.1)
The environment 4.9% (+0.2)
Debt/deficit 2.9% (+0.5)
Unsure 9.3% (+2.6)

Leader Trust Question: Which of the PROVINCIAL party leaders do you trust the most to manage the following issues? [Rotate]

Healthcare
Dalton McGuinty 25.4%
Tim Hudak 23.3%
Andrea Horwath 7.5%
Mike Schreiner 3.6%
None of them 11.9%
Unsure 28.3%

Economy
Tim Hudak 33.1%
Dalton McGuinty 22.3%
Andrea Horwath 5.9%
Mike Schreiner 5.0%
None of them 11.4%
Unsure 22.2%

Taxes
Tim Hudak 38.1%
Dalton McGuinty 20.4%
Andrea Horwath 6.0%
Mike Schreiner 4.1%
None of them 11.2%
Unsure 20.3%

Education
Dalton McGuinty 27.4%
Tim Hudak 23.2%
Andrea Horwath 5.7%
Mike Schreiner 4.6%
None of them 11.4%
Unsure 27.8%

Best Premier Question: As you may know [Rotate] Tim Hudak is the leader of the PCs, Dalton McGuinty is the leader of the Liberals, Andrea Horwath is the leader of the NDP and Mike Schreiner is the leader of the Green Party... who, in your opinion, would make the best Premier of Ontario?

The numbers in parentheses denote the one year change from the Nanos Ontario Omnibus survey completed between January 31st and February 3rd, 2011 (n=506).

Tim Hudak 27.3% (-5.0)
Dalton McGuinty 22.1%% (-1.3)
Andrea Horwath 9.7% (+0.5)
Mike Schreiner 3.3% (-0.1)
None of them 12.7% (+1.2)
Unsure 25.0% (+4.8)

Provincial Spending Question: In your opinion, can the provincial government afford, somewhat afford, somewhat not afford, or not oafford giving more money to Ontario cities for the following services? [Rotate]

Roads
Can afford 56.0%
Can somewhat afford 24.2%
Can somewhat not afford 2.8%
Cannot afford 10.4%
Unsure 6.6%

Social Services
Can afford 54.2%
Can somewhat afford 19.5%
Can somewhat not afford 4.7%
Cannot afford 14.5%
Unsure 7.1%

Public Transportation
Can afford 49.2%
Can somewhat afford 20.6%
Can somewhat not afford 5.2%
Cannot afford 17.4%
Unsure 7.6%

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest "Nanos Poll".

 

 

 

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?hl=en&shva=1#inbox/12ec7c4580afaeaa

Krago

Quick-and-dirty seat projection: PC - 61, Lib - 31, NDP - 15

Stockholm

Looks like the Ontario Green (3%) party is really pushing up daisies just like its federal counterpart.

adma

Krago wrote:

Quick-and-dirty seat projection: PC - 61, Lib - 31, NDP - 15

Though given the NDP's technically polling behind its 2007 result, 15 might be highballing it...

adma

Krago wrote:

Quick-and-dirty seat projection: PC - 61, Lib - 31, NDP - 15

Though given the NDP's technically polling behind its 2007 result, 15 might be highballing it...

Stockholm

The thing is that there were about half a dozen seats that the ONDP lost by very narrow margins last time  - all to Liberals. If the NDP vote stays the same and the Liberal vote crashes 12 points - about half a dozen Liberal seats move into the NDP column. Look at the federal situation in 2004 the NDP took 18% of the vote in Ontario and 7 seats. In 208 they took 18% and 17 seats - but the Liberal vote dropped from 44% to 33%!

Aristotleded24

Any doubt that Hudak will be the next Ontario Premier?

adma

Yeah.  Remember the whole Mulroney-landslide-followed-by-Peterson-premiership thing.

Life, the unive...

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Any doubt that Hudak will be the next Ontario Premier?

Lots.  It is far from a forgone conclusion.  There is also a long tradition of Ontario voting in an 'opposition' government provincially.

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:
Any doubt that Hudak will be the next Ontario Premier?
Lots.  It is far from a forgone conclusion.  There is also a long tradition of Ontario voting in an 'opposition' government provincially.

Let me rephrase: is there any doubt that McGuinty will be defeated in Ontario this Fall?

Does Andrea have a strategy to counter the inevitable push that will come for "strategic" voting?

klexo

Other than trashing McGuinty and the Libs, and minimizing the difference between Cons and the Libs, I doubt it. 

Life, the unive...

Lord I hope so, but Ontario really needs to get its act together on a number of non-GTA issues like jail closures and industrial wind.

Given there was so many strong 2nds by federal Ontario candidates, I assume there will be a strong push to get some or all of those folks to run again.

adma

And maybe, too, given the Scarborough and Bramalea results, a renewed ethnoburban strategy...

Wilf Day

adma wrote:
And maybe, too, given the Scarborough and Bramalea results, a renewed ethnoburban strategy...

Indeed. But looking at the excellent second place candidate from a cultural minority -- Jagmeet Singh -- and all the other such candidates in the 416 and 905 who got more than 15% of the vote -- Manjit Grewal, Waseem Ahmed, Jagtar Shergill, Mehdi Mollahasani, Aijaz Naqvi -- I see six men and no women. Room for more renewal, eh?

 

Aristotleded24

[url=http://ontariondp.com/en/hudak-adopts-new-democrat-position-on-hydro-aff...'s to say the NDP can't influence Hudak?[/url]

Quote:
NDP Energy and Finance Critic Peter Tabuns says Ontario families should take Tim Hudak’s support for New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath’s proposal to take the HST off hydro and home heating with a grain of salt.

“We’re used to seeing our ideas stolen by Liberals and now the Conservatives are in on the act. They can copy as much as they like. Families know they can trust New Democrats to put them first,” said Tabuns. “Taking the HST off hydro and home heating will make life more affordable for families, which is why we announced it eight months ago. We’re happy to set the agenda. Making life affordable needs to be a priority in Ontario.”

adma

Wilf Day wrote:
Indeed. But looking at the excellent second place candidate from a cultural minority -- Jagmeet Singh -- and all the other such candidates in the 416 and 905 who got more than 15% of the vote -- Manjit Grewal, Waseem Ahmed, Jagtar Shergill, Mehdi Mollahasani, Aijaz Naqvi -- I see six men and no women. Room for more renewal, eh?

As I recall, there was a fair bit of buzz about 2007's Mississauga-Erindale's standard-bearer, Shaila Kibria--though it didn't get her far, but the shocking number of front-yard signs I saw for her in some spanking new neighbourhoods suggests that had the 2007 dynamic leveraged itself on behalf of the NDP a la 2011, she would have been one of the stronger beneficiaries.  (Might she run again?)

robbie_dee

Quote:

A mini-orange wave is rolling across Ontario, lifting the fortunes of the New Democrats in the lead up to the provincial election.

A new poll by Nanos Research, which will be released on Tuesday, shows that support for New Democratic Leader Andrea Horwath is growing, indicating that Premier Dalton McGuinty has to protect his left flank as well.

***

The telephone poll of 503 Ontarians, which was conducted over two days in mid-May, found that only 25 per cent of voters believe Mr. McGuinty would make the best premier, positioning him six percentage points behind Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak.

But 16 per cent of voters said they believe Ms. Horwath would make the best premier, an increase of six percentage points over the past two months. Her party over all is gaining in popularity, with 19 per cent saying they would vote NDP if an election were held today. The Liberals are trailing seven percentage points behind the Tories, with 34 per cent of the votes.

 

[url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndps-horwath-gaining-popula... and Mail[/url]

 

[url=http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-S11-T481.pdf]Full Nanos Poll (pdf)[/url]

Life, the unive...

without regional breakdowns the poll is almost useless.   As we saw with the federal election Ontario is actually a combination of sub-regions with very different political dynamics from one to the other.

Stockholm

At this stage, I don't need regional breakdowns - we also know from the federal election that polls of any kind taken outside of a writ period only give very vague trends. At this stage all i need to know is that since the last Ontario election, the Ontario Liberals are down about 10 points  and that the Ontario PCs and NDP are each up with the PCs taking about 2/3 of the Liberal drop at this stage. Ontarians tend to be so unconscious of provincial politics that we won't really know the picture until we are a couple of weeks into the campaign - all we know for sure is that support for McGuinty is down - everything else is open to question.

Sean in Ottawa

I think it would take an amazing change for Cons not to win.

The NDP will go up certainly -- but I doubt enough to win.
I can't see the Liberals holding on to enough.

It would not surprise me to see McGuinty down to third party.

Somethign like the NDP around 23 seats the Liberals around 20 the PCs around 64...

Stockholm

Its quite possible that the Tories make gains become the largest party but fail to get a majority - then we would probably have a Liberal/NDP coalition.

Caissa

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives say if they are elected in the fall, they would force convicted prisoners in provincial facilities to work up to 40 hours a week of manual labour.

"An honest day's work never hurt anybody. In fact, it helps," Tim Hudak, the leader of the party, said Thursday at a news conference announcing the proposal.

Hudak criticized the current jail system for providing what he called prisoner perks such as yoga classes and writing workshops.

Under the Tory plan, prisoners would pick up garbage along rural highways, cut grass and clean graffiti along city streets, among other similar tasks.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2011/05/26/ontario-tories-ma...

Lord Palmerston

Sounds like Hudak is running for governor of Alabama.

adma

Yeah, I know it's cheap, but

Apologies if I'm violating some "Godwin" equivalent.

janfromthebruce

Conservatives no shoo-in for Queen's Park 30
Why this year’s election is looking a lot like 1995, and how that favours the — yikes! — NDP
snip

The echoes I see are between the Liberals in 1995 and the PCs right now.

Back then, the Bob Rae government was in its dying days.

Rae himself foretold his future.

“I’m toast,” he told a reporter months before the vote.

The political culture in this province is such that once the electorate tires of a party, the Opposition assumes they will become the government in the next election.

Back in 1995, the New Democrats were government, Liberals were in Opposition — and the Harris Tories were in third place.

 

snip

Who wins in this?

As in 1995, it could be the party in third place.

With the two big boys hacking away at each other on the right, New Democrat Andrea Horwath can chip away on social issues, pensions and care for the elderly on the left.

I suspect the Liberals are more susceptible on their left flank than on their right.

Horwath is young, she’s smart. She doesn’t represent the status quo.

I’m not suggesting the NDP will form the next government. But if they come up with a platform that isn’t scary, they could change the dynamics of this election.

 

And I am thinking the same thing - want the liberals to go because they are past due and people are angry @ them

Hudak, well each time he opens his mouth he steps into it - and Ontarians remember the Harris senseless revolution and what it meant - so where does your vote go?

 

Pages

Topic locked