St. Paul's byelection part 3

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Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

I got mine.

St. Paul's Prog...

Good to hear.  Julian Heller is a fixture of the community, but it's hard to run on the NDP label in St. Paul's.  I'm afraid there will be a lot of strategic voting to stop Sue-Ann Levy, who is basically a professional name caller.  And nobody can deny that Eric Hoskins is a very impressive person. 

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

True, but as I said over here:

Quote:
Eric Hoskins does indeed have some progressive credentials, but let's face it, he's merely window-dressing for the do-nothing McGuinty Liberals. A vote for the NDP is the progressive vote against the Liberal status quo in this by-election.

St. Paul's Prog...

I agree, but it's hard to minimize the differences between Hoskins and Levy.  I have a good deal of respect for Hoskins as a person.  I can't stand Levy, period.

Stockholm

I'd be surprised if there was any "strategic voting" specifically to stop Sue-Anne Levy. Its a byelection for God's sake - so the stakes could not be any lower. The challenge that the NDP faces has nothing to do with who the Tory candidate is. Its the fact that the conventional wisdom is that the riding can never be winnable for the NDP and that a vote for the NDP in St. Paul's is a wasted vote.

Most people in St. Paul are way too hoiti-toiti to ever read the Toronto Sun in the first place and probably don't even have a clue who Levy is - aprt from hearing that she's openly lesbian - which probably makes most people assume that she's some Red Tory a la Nancy Ruth (nee Jackman)

St. Paul's Prog...

That's true, there are few Sun readers in St. Paul's.  I'm not actually saying Levy has a chance at taking it - she doesn't, it is a safe Liberal riding.  People seem to know who she is, even if she is more disliked than liked in these parts.  And I think a strong Levy presence will push a lot of Liberal/NDP swing voters into the Liberal camp.

I should also say Levy's appeal to the "Jewish vote" is greatly exaggerated, as pointed out earlier.  If the Tories couldn't take it when John Tory was promising to fund Jewish day schools, they won't take it now.

Stockholm

There may be another kind of "strategic voting" as well. People who are tempted to vote NDP but vote strategically for Levy in the byelection because they think she has the better chance of winning and they want to send a message to McGuinty.There were Tories who voted NDP for the same reason in byelections in parkdale-High Park and York South-Weston.

StarSuburb

And federally, I know there was a bit of a pro-Mulcair movement amongst Outremont Tories for the same reasons. I doubt though that many dippers would swing Tory, i think the bigger risk of lost NDP swing votes are those going to the Liberals out of fear of a PC victory.

Stockholm

I disagree. I think that very, very, very few people think its really that consequential to their lives who wins a byelection in a government held seat when that government has a huge majority. Byelections are about "sending a message" or in some cases "NOT sending a message". If this were a general election campaign and the province-wide polls were dead even and St. Paul was regarded as a tossup and who won the riding was seen as possibly deciding who was going to form a government and if the Tories were clearly promising a return to the Mike Harris days - then yes, some people who who might be tempted to vote NDP might vote Liberal. But we aren't in that situation.

The challange for the NDP in St. Paul is the same challenge they would face even if the Tories were running the reddest of red Tories. Its that its just about the wealthiest riding in Ontario and the NDP wouldn't have a chance even if they were sweeping the province - and on top of that, the conventional wisdom in the media and among political gossips is that the race is between Hoskins and Levy and that the NDP has no chance. People tend not to vote for people who they think has no chance.

This obsession with blaming everything on "strategic voting" is nothing new. The very first election i was ever old enough to be aware of was the 1974 federal election and the myth in the NDP after losing half our seats was that it was all because NDP supporters frantically switched to the Liberals in a desparate attempt to stop Stanfield (that scary, scary, scary man!!) from bringing in wage and price controls. Of course, the exhaustive 1974 Canada Election Study that analysed the election noted that out of the thousands of people they interviewed not one single person said that they switched from having voted NDP in 1972 to voting Liberal in 1974 because they wanted to stop wage and price controls. Not one!

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:
There may be another kind of "strategic voting" as well. People who are tempted to vote NDP but vote strategically for Levy in the byelection because they think she has the better chance of winning and they want to send a message to McGuinty.

Especially if the Conservatives are more convincing when they say "send McGuinty a message...say no the HST" than when the NDP does.

Stockholm

I'm not sure how convincing the Tories are on the HST when it is widely seen as being the work of Flaherty and the federal Tories - the same people who gave us the GST in the first place. Not to mention the fact that deep down the Ontario Tories are the ones who are really being opportunists here since its part of rightwing ideology to want to jack up flat consumption taxes. The only reason Hudak is against the HST is that McGuinty is for it. If he were Premier he would have brought in the HST in a flash after talking to his Tory brothers in Ottawa.

Lord Palmerston

I have to admit I was kind of amused by this comment about St. Paul's riding posted by a Conservative supporter on Election Prediction Project:

Quote:
MJA - you're clearly not very familiar with Toronto neighbourhoods to think that St. Paul's is the most competitive seat in Toronto for the Conservatives. It most certainly is NOT! I can think of half a dozen others that are far more likely to fall to the Tories before St. Paul's will.
St. Paul's is the stereotypical latte-leftist sort of place, full of well-heeled old-money folks sneering at the Conservatives while they dine on their arugula before going out to a fashion gala. This riding will be in Grit hands for a long long time."

 

madmax

However, if one looks at who appears to be successfully gathering the media attention and the headlines on the HST, it is Hudak.

What will be of interest is the feedback Lord Palmerston and other campaign workers of all parties are receiving on the doorsteps. 

From a distant view, it appears to be a quiet affair with attention given to the Liberals and the Conservatives.

There was little doubt when DiNovo ran that the NDP had something happening and had the public and the medias attention.

  

Stockholm

Dinovo was running in a riding that had just gone NDP federally and that had a history of voting NDP. It was clear that that was a Liberal NDP race. St. Paul's is a totally different story.

adma

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I have to admit I was kind of amused by this comment about St. Paul's riding posted by a Conservative supporter on Election Prediction Project:

Quote:
MJA - you're clearly not very familiar with Toronto neighbourhoods to think that St. Paul's is the most competitive seat in Toronto for the Conservatives. It most certainly is NOT! I can think of half a dozen others that are far more likely to fall to the Tories before St. Paul's will.
St. Paul's is the stereotypical latte-leftist sort of place, full of well-heeled old-money folks sneering at the Conservatives while they dine on their arugula before going out to a fashion gala. This riding will be in Grit hands for a long long time."

Though he misunderstood the post he responded to, i.e. it was about the most competitive seat in the former city of Toronto. (Well, even that's not quite true, considering that parts of Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West are in the former city of Toronto.)

StarSuburb
SCB4

Certainly not. But I don't think it will hurt them either, unless the yet-to-be identified female passenger has some partisan connections we don't know about.  Bryant is no longer an elected MPP.

It will definitely hurt Bryant's future with the LPO. Methinks he was using the city of Toronto gig as a time out to plot a leadership campaign if/when McGuinty steps down.

Olly

Two points:

Why, if Scandinavian countries all have a Goods and Services Taxes, and use it them to fund redistributive policies, and Scandinavian countries are the ones we point to as being the hallmark of progressive social democratic countries that we want to emulate, is the HST a bad thing? There was a $4.5 billion payment from the feds to Ontario to do this, and almost half is going to low-income Ontarians in the form of a substantial increase in Property Tax Credits (for low-income renters and homeowners), and Sales Tax Credits. Paying the Sales Tax Credit quarterly (as the GST) instead of yearly as it is now is a great idea too. To me the only question is whether the Sales Tax Credit adequately covers the increase in consumption taxes for low-income Ontarians. I haven't seen a credible analysis to say that yet (ie. not from a bunch of people on a message board just saying it doesn't). But if it doesn't, the solution is to increase the STC, not throw the HST baby out with the bathwater.

Second, opposing the HST is opposing taxes in the public discourse. The NDP absolutely is reinforcing conservative messages by being on this campaign. So completely short sighted and devoid of strategic thinking.

Sunday Hat

So I'm clear.

The Liberals are giving away some $9 billion a year in corporate tax cuts...

And billions more in income tax cuts...

But the NDP should support it because they're raising $7 billion in regressive sales taxes?

With respect, that's crazy.

 

Lord Palmerston

Sunday Hat wrote:

So I'm clear.

The Liberals are giving away some $9 billion a year in corporate tax cuts...

And billions more in income tax cuts...

But the NDP should support it because they're raising $7 billion in regressive sales taxes?

With respect, that's crazy.

So why isn't this front and center in the anti-HST campaign?  Rather than running stupid Harperesque ads like "Buy a Doughnut...+8%" that are a real insult to people's intelligence.

You have to actually look carefully to find out that the NDP is saying this is actually a tax cut for business and reduces revenue, etc.  The main point that is emphasized is "unfair tax" and a "tax grab," something the Tories have no trouble saying (in fact they say it far more persuasively.)

ETA: Thankfully that stupid ad was removed from Heller's website.

 

Lord Palmerston
Sunday Hat

I didn't feel insulted.

But then again, I'm a mouth-breathing Tims-drinking trogoldyte. Smile

Krago

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I spoke too soon:

http://www.unfairtaxgrab.com/home.html

 

Why does the spilled coffee look exactly like the spilled gasoline?

adma

SCB4 wrote:
It will definitely hurt Bryant's future with the LPO. Methinks he was using the city of Toronto gig as a time out to plot a leadership campaign if/when McGuinty steps down.

 

Bryant's Chappaquiddick?

V. Jara

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I spoke too soon:

http://www.unfairtaxgrab.com/home.html

 

This is a good idea, but Horwath spends the whole first part of the video attacking unemployment and other themes that are smaller issues in St Paul's. These are good themes to run with in a general election when you want to win those votes, but as the axiom goes "all politics is local." Horwath needs to know her audience, and her audience in this byelection is a lot "tonier" than the typical NDP. These voters will turn against the Liberals when they fail to represent their interests and the Tories offer to unpalatable an alternative. I suspect the social conservative angle on Levy is the most potential harmful to her campaign. To the Liberals, it's their abandonment of the major taxpayer by shifting the burden of business and corporate taxation onto the shoulders of the broader spectrum of the middle class (to which the voters of St Paul probably contend they belong). And that's just the bleeding edge of it, there are undoubtably a lot of local issues (like education) that need to be stirred up once voters have taken notice and started to register their displeasure about this new (and untimely?) burden of shifted taxation.

Stockholm

"I suspect the social conservative angle on Levy is the most potential harmful to her campaign."

Unless you are a really intense political junkie (which 99% of people are not) you would not think of Jewish out-lesbian who likes to ride a motorcycle as a "social conservative". so what angle are you thinking of?

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Just quote her. There's enough material to sink her in any selection of her columns. St. Paul's voters don't want their schools or pools closed, for instance.

Erik Redburn

Ah, but thats much too straightforward for most political planners....  

check your PMs LTJ.

 

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

BABBLERS BLITZ

ST.  PAULS

LABOUR DAY WEEKEND???

 

How about as many as possible do some canvassing in St. Paul's?  Meet after 6:00 at a local bar?

Can someone in the campaign post about possibilities labour day weekend?  I assume  the labour day parade is important in itself?

 

 

 

SCB4

adma wrote:

SCB4 wrote:
It will definitely hurt Bryant's future with the LPO. Methinks he was using the city of Toronto gig as a time out to plot a leadership campaign if/when McGuinty steps down.

 

Bryant's Chappaquiddick?

 

Worse. Unlike the late Teddy, Bryant can't count on the sympathy that comes from having two older brothers who were national icons cut down by assassins.

wage zombie

Doesn't the HST take autonomy away from the provinces and centralize more power in the federal gov't?

Sunday Hat

To some extent. It denies the provinces the right to set policy around sales taxes - particularly exemptions - and completely strips them of the right to charge any sales tax to businesses.

A provinces that swallows this poision pill will lose some freedom - but I don't think that's the best reason to oppose it. The best reason to oppose it is that it shifts billions of dollars in taxes off of business and onto ordinary people - and that it leaves the government with less money to fix schools, provide long-term care and the other things that we expect governments to do.

 

Sunday Hat

To some extent. It denies the provinces the right to set policy around sales taxes - particularly exemptions - and completely strips them of the right to charge any sales tax to businesses.

A provinces that swallows this poision pill will lose some freedom - but I don't think that's the best reason to oppose it. The best reason to oppose it is that it shifts billions of dollars in taxes off of business and onto ordinary people - and that it leaves the government with less money to fix schools, provide long-term care and the other things that we expect governments to do.

 

Will S

A canvasser just came to my apartment door and identified himself as being from some sort of voter registration agency/group and asked me to confirm my name and polling information, which I did. Then he pulled out an NDP pamphlet and said "We're running a campaign with the NDP to stop the HST."

Does anyone know the name of this group? I'm not happy that they introduced themselves as being some sort of voter registration group, which I assumed was non-partisan, ask me to confirm personal information and then reveal they are working in tandem with a party. I would have listened to his campaign information speech if he stated up front he was campaigning for the NDP, but I was quite abrupt with him when I felt I had been mislead and manipulated. I think I recall that this group has been mentioned in the past on babble, but I can't recall what they were called. I'd really like to know how to reach them because I'd like to write a letter expressing my distaste for the way they went about collecting information before revealing that they were a partisan group.

boomerbsg

This will be an easy hold for the Liberals. The NDP are a no-show in this fracas and Levy is not getting the traction in the media that the Tories thought she would get.

SCB4

That sounds about right. The fallout from l'affaire Bryant may be helping the Liberals to the extent that it deprives Levy of the media attention/oxygen she desparately needs to get her campaign out of drydock. Also Bryant in the headlines helps the Liberals by diverting attention away from the HST, the eHealth scandal, the OLG scandal and a so-called 'economic recovery' that is anything but.

 

Sunday Hat

No-show? The NDP campaign looked pretty busy to me when I was in on the weekend.
Heller handed Hoskins his posterior on Metro Morning last week:
http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/toronto/ondemand/audio/sep02stp_TOR.wma
I don't think New Dems will sweep Forest Hill - but if you look around there's a lot more to the riding then that.

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

My street has 3 Heller signs (2 large), 2 Levy signs (small), I Chopik sign (small), and no Hoskins sign to be seen. The house has been canvassed twice by everyone but the Greens, who are a no-show.

martin dufresne

Darcy Allan Sheppard at the Pearly Gates:  "St. Peter?... I want that !*&!+!# St. Paul!!!"

 

madmax

Sunday Hat wrote:
Heller handed Hoskins his posterior on Metro Morning last week:

http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/toronto/ondemand/audio/sep02stp_TOR.wma


As I listened to the broadcast...
1) Heller Intro Average
2) Hoskin Intro.. Average plus. Typical platitudes which do sound good on radio, One on first
3) Levy gets a freebee on HST
4) Heller sounds ok on HST, nothing spectacular, kinda weak, but all the details. Just put me to sleep
5) Hoskins knows it's coming. Answer is full of it and it sounds positive, a double base hit. Runner on 1st and 3rd.
The next question is the question that is the softball for all candidates. Why do you want to run.
A ball not dropped since Dion needed three tries to answer the question on the east coast.
6) Heller strikes at Hoskins weakness. He is an interloper. And what a quote. Got a Hoskins quote talking about the city when he ran
in a rural riding and its not nothing spectacular, he threw a modest fastball right across the plate.
7) HOSKINS BLOWS IT FROM HERE ON IN. Its down hill for the interview. He is out of his league and the trial lawyer got him easy.
Hoskins reverts to reading a platform book in a nervous fashion and runs out the clock. He hits a fly ball that gets caught and then gets tagged out
on at home base and the runner on 2nd is out before tagging up.
Seriously, this radio interview was going nowhere and put me almost to sleep, and no there is no fireworks and I thought that someone
was really digging to say Heller put Hoskins on his butt.
BUTT... Heller puts Hoskins on his butt and his cage is rattled.

Lord Palmerston

V. Jara wrote:
Horwath spends the whole first part of the video attacking unemployment and other themes that are smaller issues in St Paul's. These are good themes to run with in a general election when you want to win those votes, but as the axiom goes "all politics is local." Horwath needs to know her audience, and her audience in this byelection is a lot "tonier" than the typical NDP.

Well at least they're trying a little to tailor it to St. Paul's:

"The Harmonized Sales Tax means that scores of everyday goods and services will cost you more – for utilities, for condo fees, even for a coffee and a bagel – to name just a few."

madmax

No point in referencing the article, but the Toronto Sun has listed all the City Council members who are supporting Sue Anne Levy.  There's 10 which really isn't that many.

The Sun then goes on to list a couple of Hoskins supporters that are not City Councillors.

On a side note, they suggest that Julian Heller also lists supporters.

Media, you gotta love it.

I don't even think they mentioned the GP candidate period.

Sunday Hat

It's worth noting that none of the Councillors endorsing Levy represent the riding - or live near it.

The fact that Rob Ford supports Sue Ann probably doesn't work in her favour.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

The group endorsement is the closest thing they have to a Senate appointment to offer her as a reward for years of faithful service to Council's right wing.

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

The first Hoskins sign has shown up on our street.

(and 2 more Chopik signs are up - on the same lawn as the first one.) 

Stockholm

Jim Coyle wrote a very nice column about Julian Heller in today's Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/article/692770

St. Paul's Prog...

It is a very good piece about Heller.  I think the more people who meet him, the better he will do.  Too bad it's such a Liberal riding.  I wonder if he can beat Levy for second place.

madmax

According to sources on MLW.  The PCs are working the door to door scene. Oh, and I created a straw poll for the riding on the forum.
http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index.php?showtopic=14840
I think the Heller article is very good. The Star will move onto supporting the Hoskins for the rest of the campaign. I'd be surprised if Heller
earns anymore print.

GTY

The by-election in St. Paul's is turning out to be a three way race.  The Liberals no longer have a high profile cabinet minister who can garner votes from people who would otherwise vote NDP or Conservative.

The Liberals are being negatively affected by the HST issue, and the fact that their federal cousins want to force another election so soon.  Because it is a by-election, there is very less compelling reason to vote Liberal in order to prevent a Conservative government.

By-elections always have a lower turnout among voters, and one called in the summer is no different.  This affects Liberal and Green support in a negative way.

The NDP is treating St. Paul's very seriously this time.  The mighty by-election machine that helped elect Andrea Horwath in Hamilton East, Cheri DiNovo in Parkdale-High Park, and Paul Ferreira in York South-Weston is running at full steam.  People from all over Toronto are coming to work in the campaign.

As it stands now, the Conservatives will increase their vote by 4% to 29% over the last provincial election.  Their strength is in Forest Hill but there is very little visible support elsewhere.

The NDP seems to be the party that is taking on the Liberals everywhere else in the riding.  It will easily increase by 12% or more at the Liberal's expense, and possibly 2% from the Green over the last provincial election.  This leaves the NDP around the 30% mark

This shrinks the Liberal lead to just above the 30% mark with the Green and other parties getting the rest.

Please, if any of you can spare some time over the weekend or beyond, come out and push us over the top.

 

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Julian put on a very strong performance at the all-candidates meeting last night. It is very apparent that he is the primary challenger now. A bit of media coverage might be nice, so that he might gain some of the single issue voters that are anti-HST. That would put him over the top, if you ask me.

Given that our 'A-Team' is at work, why aren't we getting more media attention? 

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