ST Paul's by-election part 4

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remind remind's picture
ST Paul's by-election part 4
remind remind's picture

Lord Thunderin Jeezus wrote:
Julian put on a very strong performance at the all-candidates meeting last night. It is very apparent that he is the primary challenger now. A bit of media coverage might be nice, so that he might gain some of the single issue voters that are anti-HST. That would put him over the top, if you ask me.

Given that our 'A-Team' is at work, why aren't we getting more media attention?

St. Paul's Prog...

Unfortunately I missed the debate.  I'm glad to hear Julian performed well and I hope LTJ is right that he is the primary challenger instead of the irritating Levy.

madmax

News coverage in the globe and mail is all about Turmel, then Levy.  Hellers quotes are used as an echo, and they make it sound like Levy was the strongest voice of the evening.

remind remind's picture

Then people should be aking comments on the G&M article stating otherwise perhaps.

madmax

 
Story is all Turmel... When will the media ignore him?
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/694129
 
The Sun focus is on taking Hoskins down a peg and raising Levy, while virtually putting Turmel to the sidelines.
http://www.torontosun.com/news/torontoandgta/2009/09/11/10832721-sun.html
Here is the Globe take
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/police-called-to-candidates-debate/article1283295/
And this just in....
http://mytowncrier.ca/voters039-voices.html
Heller and Hoskins and Levy all make an impression. Funny to hear a person say, Heller was the best, I am voting Levy.

SCB4

The photos of Hudak and Levy together on her website made me laugh. Hudak looks positively funereal - not sensing a lot of warm, mutual affection there.

 

http://votelevy.ca/photos/

madmax

At first I thought you were being rude or cheeky.

Then I looked. It appears like Hudak doesn't like her.

Polunatic2

I also attended last night's meeting. Here are a few impressions.

First, as in many all-candidate meetings, there were probably less than 10% of votes up for grabs as most people already had their minds made up and came as cheerleaders.

Second, the liberals were definitely the loudest with a significant cheering section for Levy who was not a very impressive speaker. All rhetoric. Not sure if there were more liberals there than any other party, but they were really screaming. When Hoskins walked in the door it was as if he were a returning, conquering hero. Trudeaumania? He's got that look of confidence and a bit of arrogance even as he seemed like a decent enough person. 

Third, there was a lot of cheers from the conservative bleachers for Levy, the Libertarian and the Freedom Party candidates who all ran on a mostly single issue anti-tax and anti-spending message. Levy kept nodding her head when the Libertarian spoke. 

Fourth, noteworthy that the right wing no longer squawks about cutting services even if that is their intention. They talk about "less government" and reducing waste and inefficiency (nothing really new with that meme). 

Fifth, I thought Heller performed pretty well (although I liked his nomination speech better) and had a good base of supporters there (although we could have probably been more productive dropping literature to uncommitted voters homes). I thought he was best when he wasn't talking about the HST and he showed some passion. 

Sixth, Hoskins invoked that breeding ground of liberal wannabes as an endorser - the Daily Bread Food Bank - as a foil to the anti-HST message. Hoskins spoke quite well. His pro-HST argument was somewhat persuasive for those who may not be sure about it. In any case, someone's gotta be less than fully truthful about the math as the discrepancies are so wide between the pro and con. 

Finally, the meeting, while packed, was not very well run as the chair allowed Turmel to seriously disrupt it for a good 30 minutes. 

adma

Given that our 'A-Team' is at work, why aren't we getting more media attention?

First, the NDP nominated late.  Secondly, the NDP's long been held to be the third-place "also-ran" party here...

Lord Palmerston

Some clips from the nomination meeting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2cLwTcZ_1w

Sunday Hat

adma wrote:

Given that our 'A-Team' is at work, why aren't we getting more media attention?

First, the NDP nominated late.  Secondly, the NDP's long been held to be the third-place "also-ran" party here...

And, um, Julian actually is getting a lot of media attention. See this and this and this.

Considering the challenges the NDP faces in this riding (even with a "star candidate" like Paul Summerville we still placed thrid) this is pretty good. In fact, it's more coverage than Eric Hoskins has recieved which is, if you actually think about it, is pretty amazing.

I think people need to give Julian a little more credit for the job he's doing. It's a tough fight and I think he's punching way above his weight.

 

 

janfromthebruce

thank you Sunday hat.

St. Paul's Prog...

I'll be helping out on E day.

Nice to see Julian Heller winning the sign war on my street (I live around Bathurst and St. Clair).

bekayne

SCB4 wrote:

The photos of Hudak and Levy together on her website made me laugh. Hudak looks positively funereal - not sensing a lot of warm, mutual affection there.

 

http://votelevy.ca/photos/

He's not the old guy, right? Is he the robotic-looking younger guy? Also, that slideshow goes on forever-literally.

 

SCB4

bekayne wrote:

He's not the old guy, right? Is he the robotic-looking younger guy? Also, that slideshow goes on forever-literally.

 

Yup, the younger guy. You only need to look at the first 4-5 pictures to get the impression.

madmax

Looks like their attending a funeral

Krago

St. Paul's - Past Results

 

2003 - Lib (55%)  PC (25%)  NDP (15%)  Green (5%)  Others (1%)

2007 - Lib (47%) PC (27%) NDP (16%) Green (8%) Others (2%)

 

St. Paul's By-election - My Prediction

 

2009 - Lib (37%) PC (42%) NDP (14%) Green (5%) Others (2%)

adma

Given signage and all, I'd ramp the PC down and the NDP up...

Polunatic2

While I don't put a lot of stock in using signs as a final barometer of what will happen on e-day, I've walked two polls now (west of Bathurst) and have seen very few Levy signs. It feels like Heller has more signs this time than last time but that's not a very scientific observation. Hoskins had quite a few signs. Nor have I received a call from Levy's campaign although I have from H & H. Toronto tories may rely more on central campaign advertising and may not be very good at running strong ground campaigns given the demographics of their supporters who wouldn't want to get their shoes dirty. 

ETA 5 minutes later: I just heard a Levy radio ad on CFRB. This confirms my hypothesis that there is no ground campaign. "She" must have lots of money to run ads during prime time which span the entire GTA. 

StarSuburb

I really doubt this will be a PC gain. My prediction:

Liberal: 41% PC: 32% NDP: 18% Greens: 7% Random others: 2%

I think this article does a decent job summing up why a lot of voters, even if unimpressed with the McGuinty Liberals, Hoskins will probably have a bit of a personal vote, particularly to non-partisan "progressive" swing voters:

 

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/toronto/archive/2009/09/14/comm...

This line in particular:
"While Ms. Levy was harping away endlessly at Mr. Miller (sorry, "His Blondeness"), Dr. Hoskins was saving babies in Sub-Saharan Africa."

Uncle John

Levy will be lucky to hit 30%. If she can get the Liberals to under 40% she will have done well.

There would have to be a massive shift from the Liberals to the Conservatives in the general polls for this riding to go Tory. A number of GTA-area ridings would have to go Tory for this one to shift.

St. Paul's would be a last bastion of Liberal support even if the Liberals were down to 25%, and the Liberals doing considerably better than that provincially, and even federally.

It's not been a bellweather riding since 1984.

Thoughts of an NDP or PC victory in St. Paul's are strictly anecdotal and wishful thoughts.

Still, if you are in a campaign you have to believe in the delusion that your candidate will win, so you can get drunk on election night when you lose.

Ciabatta2

Polunatic2 wrote:

While I don't put a lot of stock in using signs as a final barometer of what will happen on e-day, I've walked two polls now (west of Bathurst) and have seen very few Levy signs. It feels like Heller has more signs this time than last time but that's not a very scientific observation. Hoskins had quite a few signs. Nor have I received a call from Levy's campaign although I have from H & H. Toronto tories may rely more on central campaign advertising and may not be very good at running strong ground campaigns given the demographics of their supporters who wouldn't want to get their shoes dirty. 

ETA 5 minutes later: I just heard a Levy radio ad on CFRB. This confirms my hypothesis that there is no ground campaign. "She" must have lots of money to run ads during prime time which span the entire GTA. 

East of Bathurst, I'd say the signs are evenly split Liberal and Tory south of St Clair, and largely Tory north of St. Clair.  I know Levy's campaign has at least hit the apartment buildings in that area as I've been canvassed.  I don't remember this much PC signage in the 3 elections I've been in the area for.

adma

How's east of Yonge?

Uncle John

East of Yonge is Liberal territory, and the part of the riding which borders on Bob Rae land.

You'd think the Tories would do well there, with all the million dollar houses, but they don't.

madmax

I hear the PCs have been blitzing apparentment buildings and doing a good job of whipping up tenants to vote by telling them their rent is going up because of the HST.  I am told the strategy appears to be working.

Sunday Hat
SCB4

Was in the riding for a meeting @ Wychwood Barns this morning. Walked east from St. Clair West subway and down Christie. Mostly Hoskins signs with a minor Heller sign presence and one or 2 for the Green candidate. No Levy signs, save for those businesses that commit to signs from all parities to avoid offending a potential winner.

BTW, is Heller getting much help from Joe Mihevc's machine?

 

Lord Palmerston

SCB4 wrote:

Was in the riding for a meeting @ Wychwood Barns this morning. Walked east from St. Clair West subway and down Christie. Mostly Hoskins signs with a minor Heller sign presence and one or 2 for the Green candidate. No Levy signs, save for those businesses that commit to signs from all parities to avoid offending a potential winner.

The residential side streets around there have a lot of Heller signs.

Krago

The by-election is tomorrow.  Any more predictions?

Ciabatta2

Hoskins wins but with slightly under 40 percent of the vote.  Levy second with above 30, Heller at around 17 and Greens getting 10 or 11

Lord Palmerston

I predict:

Hoskins 45%

Levy 27%

Heller 19%

Greens and others 9%

Stockholm

What would be considered a successful result for the NDP - given that it is an unwinnable riding. The NDP got 16% last time, what would be a good result?

Lord Palmerston

Since the NDP has decided to make it mainly about the HST, will they declare "moral victory" if the PC + NDP vote exceeds the Liberal vote?

Stockholm

I would be happy if the NDP cracked 20% in that riding. I would be ecstatic if the NDP came in second and that is not out of the question since I'm hearing that the Levy campaign has been a big flop.

Polunatic2

It's hard to predict anything other than a Hoskins win. However, I'll also predict that Heller will win the poll where I'll be observing the count at 9:00 :)

I try to be objective about all politicians and was not impressed in the least with Levy when I saw her speak at an all-candidates meeting. Dull. Classic tory bobblehead. Patronizing. Shallow. Phony. And then she goes clowning around with Mel Lastman. But it's wishful thinking to expect her to drop much below the 25% that the tories got in 2007 although a small shift can go a long way in a tight race. 

How about a prediction on voter turnout too? I'll go with an optimistic 38%. It was about 55% in the 2007 election.

boomerbsg

I think Liberal voters are going to stay home today. Going to be closer than people think.

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

I'm guessing Jullian and Sue Ann Levy are neck-and-neck. I'm rather certain that their combined vote will significantly beat the faux-progressive Liberal pretty-boy.

That said, I figure they'll split just over 50% of the vote (say 25 & 27% respectively), leaving about 7% for the Greens, and Hoskins somewhere around 40%. I think people here are underestimating Julian's personal appeal, and his record of community service.

Not good enough for a win, but a better showing than the NDP has seen in this riding for a long time - perhaps the best ever.

SCB4

boomerbsg wrote:

I think Liberal voters are going to stay home today. Going to be closer than people think.

 

I agree. I think the falling poll numbers for the federal Liberals in Ontario are more attributable to a growing dissatisfaction with the McGuinty gov't than Ignatieff's inept performance.

aka Mycroft

Looking at Heller's literature the NDP is focussing on the HST as the major theme of their campaign. Frankly, I think anti-tax tubthumping  could backfire and help the Tories.

Stockholm

I haven't looked at all the messaging in great detail, but given that the HST is both a totally regressive tax AND a tax that is a joint venture of the provincial Liberals and the federal Conservatives - there is clearly an opening for the NDP. I don't know whether they have exploited that opening or not.

Incidentally, setting aside the messaging issue, I am VERY impressed with the look of Julian Heller's literature. The stuff is very attractive and professional looking and should be a good prototype for the ONDP to use in the next election.

St. Paul's Prog...

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:
That said, I figure they'll split just over 50% of the vote (say 25 & 27% respectively), leaving about 7% for the Greens, and Hoskins somewhere around 40%. I think people here are underestimating Julian's personal appeal, and his record of community service.

Not good enough for a win, but a better showing than the NDP has seen in this riding for a long time - perhaps the best ever.

I agree.  The turnout will be low and many Liberals will stay home.  Julian Heller is a strong, impressive local candidate.  Perhaps he should consider running for City Council against centre-right coucillor Michael Walker.  The problem is Mihevc's ward is much more progressive than Walker's ward.

The Tories are likely to improve their vote too, but not enough to win.  Will the conservative Jewish vote come out to vote for Levy?

Uncle John

Even if the Conservative jewish vote does come out for Levy it won't matter. They don't have enough votes to sway the riding. They were pretty pro-Tory in the last federal election. The CJPAC worked hard for the federal Tory candidate and it didn't make a difference. In the federal election before that, Peter Kent, who is staunchly pro-Isreal, was not able to beat Bennett.

 

Krago

I had never heard of CJPAC until Uncle John mentioned it.  I was surprised to read a blog entry from Libby Davies on the front page of their website.

boomerbsg

Starting to hear reports that voter turn out is very low in some key Liberal polls. Always a bad sign for the incumbent party. Can anybody confirm???

Stockholm

Do the polls close at 8pm? is that when we will start to get results at the Elections Ontario website?

johnpauljones

stock i think it is 9pm that they close

libs should win by 10%

any single digit win is a loss for them

Uncle John

Turnout is very low in provincial byelections anyway. You are lucky to get 40%...

Ciabatta2

When I voted post-work, it was dead.  Three voters for eight polls.  Mind you I was only there for 20 minutes

Stockholm

Its 9:08 pm and the link to results on the Elections Ontario website doesn't seem to work yet.

Stockholm

Now I see the link to the fresults page works on the French version of the Elections Ontario site - but not the English.

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