ST Paul's by-election part 4

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Krago

Ten polls reporting:

Lib - 48%

PC - 24%

NDP - 21%

Green - 5%

 

Back to the drawing board for Mr. Hudak and pals.

Stockholm

If the NDP gets over 20% I'll be happy and coming in second would be really sweet!

Stockholm

BTW: remember all the hype there was about the Green Party? They are at 5% so far!

adma

38 polls: Lib 48.48, PC 23.86, NDP 20.57, GP 5.18.

Somehow, my hunch was that PC and NDP would be closer than anyone anticipated...

Krago

Well done adma!

 

With the PCs framing the ballot question on their anti-tax turf, and all the media attention Sue-Ann Levy was getting, I thought that the Tories would pull it off. Missed it by that much...

adma

45 polls, opening up: Lib 47.97, PC 25.38, NDP 19.37, GP 5.29...

adma

71 polls out of 238: Lib 47.87, PC 26.81, NDP 18.35, GP 5.34.  At this rate, it's looking like 2007 all over again, except with shavings from Green going back to Lib and NDP...

Stockholm

The Tories and Greens have to be seen as the big losers.

Bookish Agrarian

And the Toronto Sun

adma

91 polls: 47.38 Lib, 26.04 PC, 18.80 NDP, 5.99 GP...

Unionist

Lord Palmerston wrote:

I predict:

Hoskins 45%

Levy 27%

Heller 19%

Greens and others 9%

I'm just the outside observer here, but it looks to me that LP's prediction is by far the best so far... Cigar is on the way....

adma

111 polls (nearly halfway):

Liberal 5380 (47.82)

PC 3044 (27.06)

NDP 1978 (17.58)

GP 659 (5.86)

adma

Seems like distance is opening btw/PC and NDP.

133 polls:

Liberal 6512 (47.02)

PC 3955 (28.56)

NDP 2369 (17.10)

GP 784 (5.66)

adma

170 polls

Liberal 8532 (46.41)

PC 5336 (29.03)

NDP 3199 (17.40)

GP 1007 (5.48)

Wilf Day

2007:

21,280 47.43% L MICHAEL BRYANT, Toronto

11,910 26.54% PC LILLYANN GOLDSTEIN, Toronto

7,061 15.74% ND JULIAN HELLER, Toronto

3,744 8.34% GP STEVEN D'SA, Toronto

328 0.73% IND CHARLES DE KERCKHOVE, Toronto

240 0.53% LTN JOHN KITTREDGE, Toronto

190 0.42% FCP BLAISE THOMPSON, Toronto

115 0.26% FP CAROL LEBORG, Toronto

Tonight, with 170 of 238 polls reporting:

46.41% Liberal

29.03% PC

17.40% NDP

5.48% Green

Minor shifts.

Stockholm

Considering that government usually do badly in byelections and all the bad publicity about McGuinty's regime lately - the Liberals have to be quite satisfied. I don't think the NDP ever expected much in this riding, but for the Tories this has to be a rebuke since they actually held this seat as recently at the late 90s.

The one piece of good news is that the so-called Green party had such a derisory showing that hopefully the media will ignore them even more.

Lord Palmerston

So much for the anti-tax revolt.

Maxx

224 out of 238 polls

LIB: 47.56%

PC: 28.82%

NDP: 16.50%

 

Both the OLP and the federal Libs should be pleased by these results.

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

I watched the polls called in, one by one. Julian doubled the number of polls won over last time, according to some. And he came second at least as often as Levy in the others.

What was striking was the polls that Levy won. No more in number than Julian, but in those small enclaves, she won huge, overwhelming majorities - like 0 Green, 0 NDP, 8 Lib, 91 Con.

It is class war, and the seriously wealthy are very much united against us.

Unionist

Lord Palmerston wrote:

So much for the anti-tax revolt.

Let's hope someone is listening.

 

Mr.Canada_ts

Truly sad that a Liberal has won again.  That's the second wealthiest riding in the country what did we expect really Frown

NorthReport

so when is the next federal by-election, or do we know that yet?

Lost in Bruce County

 

Someone told me during scrutineering tonight that the NDP was hoping to get 15% of the vote because it meant a lot of money. I think that in this riding 16.3% (4290 votes as of 11:30 PM) is huge and should be celebrated. However, a lot of recourses were poured into this riding. A beautiful office fully staffed with our best. Indeed, one volunteer told me this was the best run NDP campaign she had ever been on!  And good on us! But I’d like to point out that in the last Federal election Huron-Bruce pulled 15% of the vote at 7426 votes with practically zero resources - like we didn't even have signs! I think the NDP could benefit to rethink its priority ridings or at least rethink rural, traditionally ignored ridings for their returns on investment. 

 

Maxx

238 out of 238 polls

 

LIB: 47.60%

PC: 28.33%

NDP: 16.88%

Wilf Day

Final count:

2009; 2007

13,192 47.60%; 21,280 47.43% L

7,851 28.33%; 11,910 26.54% PC

4,677 16.88%; 7,061 15.74% NDP

1,515 5.47%; 3,744 8.34% GP

Hard to prove much from that turnout.

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

Looks like voter turnout not much over 30%, so we assume apathy and indifference won over anger?

Wilf Day

peterjcassidy wrote:

Looks like voter turnout not much over 30%, so we assume apathy and indifference won over anger?

It's quite rational not to vote in a safe seat. So 33.6% of voters did their civic duty, while 66.4% of voters saw no point.

As Elections Alberta said in classic bureaucratese after their last election:

"In an election where there appears to be a clear front runner, electors may be less motivated to vote since the outcome is perceived to be predetermined and their vote may not be needed or may not make a difference."

 

Lost in Bruce County

Some voters told me that they were not voting because they were angry at the Liberals, but they were Liberal through and through... but I think perceived predeterminence is also a strong factor because I always here "what difference does my vote make."

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Lost in Bruce County wrote:

Someone told me during scrutineering tonight that the NDP was hoping to get 15% of the vote because it meant a lot of money. I think that in this riding 16.3% (4290 votes as of 11:30 PM) is huge and should be celebrated. However, a lot of recourses were poured into this riding. A beautiful office fully staffed with our best. Indeed, one volunteer told me this was the best run NDP campaign she had ever been on!  And good on us! But I’d like to point out that in the last Federal election Huron-Bruce pulled 15% of the vote at 7426 votes with practically zero resources - like we didn't even have signs! I think the NDP could benefit to rethink its priority ridings or at least rethink rural, traditionally ignored ridings for their returns on investment. 

If you think the NDP poured on the resources, you'd be flabbergasted at what the Liberals spent to hang on to the seat. The Liberals out-pamphlet-ed and out-canvassed the other parties by a long-shot.

janfromthebruce

And I think that lost in the Bruce has a good point about where we put our resources. Think about what LIB (really got change that handle because the short form is well ... says it all), but I digress, in Huron-Bruce with no resources, the NDP pulls off 15% of the vote. Think about what could be if resources were actually put in there.

Being from the riding, it is an opportunity that the urban centric party misses at its peril. Remember it may be rural but it has Bruce power and is where the CAW education centre is. It has the salt mine - unionized in Goderich. It has engaged farmers who are about "farmers feed cities."

In the Bruce part and particularly around Kincardine and Port Elgin it is becoming very multicultural in demographics. I think the NDP could win this riding if they put the resources in, crafted and tailored their agricultural policy, along with the other high priority NDP programs.

There is a strong environmental plus running through these 2 countries. Thanks for letting me drift.

SCB4

Wow. I honestly thought it would be closer, even taking the 'Liberal stronghold' factor into consideration. McGuinty seems to be blessed with some kind of Reaganesque teflon coating. None of the scandals and HST outrage seems to stick.

Maybe an anti-HST campaign can't gather traction in a relatively affluent riding. But I think it will in places like Chatham, Kitchener and Brantford that have had their manufacturing bases hollowed out by the recession. The challenge for the NDP is to oppose the HST in a way that puts some deep blue ocean (no pun intended) between itself and the Tories and identifies some more progressive means of generating needed revenue.

Stockholm

Two points:

1. As has been said, I think that the HST will be more of an issue in less affluent ridings and especially once it actually gets imposed next summer. St. Paul's was probably not a good riding in which to make it a central issue since its the second richest riding in Ontario. The HST is a regressive tax, but if you're rich then its regressive in your favour - so what's not to like!

2. I don't think you can compare what the NDP got in Huron-Bruce in a general election, with a byelection result. In a general election, every riding benefits to some extent from there being a province wide air war etc...and campaign coverage of the leaders tours etc...In a byelection, you are totally on your own. What I've noticed in Ontario byelections over the last few years is that when the NDP chooses to really target a seat (ie: Hamilton East, Danforth, York-South Weston, Parkdale and to a lesser extent St. Paul's) the NDP vote goes up or at least is retained compared to the preceding election. But when the party chooses NOT to pour resources in - as was the case in byelections in Markham, Burlington, Victoria-Haliburton (or whatever its called) - then the vote tends to drop.

BTW: I know that its not fashionable here to ever say anything nice about any Liberal, but I did have some dealings with Hoskins a few years ago on something work related and he actually is very nice and quite impressive. - doesn't mean I would vote for him - but I think that the more all the parties get progressive people in them - the better.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

What these results mean is that Sue-Ann Levy won't have any credibility as a commentator on the issues of the day.

In other words, not much has changed.

SCB4

If Levy still has a taste for the political life she could always do an Adam Vaughn and offer herself up as a municipal candidate in some centre-right suburban ward.

Polunatic2

Wish I could say my earlier prediction had come true although Julian did beat Levy in the poll where I observed the count. The overall results were not much different from '07 even with party volunteers flooding into the campaign from across the city. Perhaps all parties had that opportunity and so it was evened out?  I'm not sure that any particular message from the NDP would have changed the results in this by-election. 

Since both opposition parties ran their campaigns with the line that it was a mini-referendum on the HST, can the liberals now use that to say that this referendum was lost and that there is broad support for the HST?

Michelle

Well, could've been worse.  A lot worse.  But, could've been better too.  To those who worked on Heller's campaign, good try and better luck next election. :)

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Even the Greens opposed the HST, so it would be dangerous for them to claim this as a referendum - the Liberals received less than 50% of the vote.

Polunatic2

Good point LTJ although my point is that it was the opposition parties that framed it as a referendum on the HST - not the libs. I suppose the opposition could claim a victory - that 52% of the 33% who turned out voted against the HST - but it's a pretty specious argument. Best to move on I suppose.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Odd that the Greens were the one party to drop in their percentage of the vote. The Liberals, PCs and NDP all went up marginally.

Olly

1. As has been said, I think that the HST will be more of an issue in less affluent ridings and especially once it actually gets imposed next summer. St. Paul's was probably not a good riding in which to make it a central issue since its the second richest riding in Ontario. The HST is a regressive tax, but if you're rich then its regressive in your favour - so what's not to like!

 

Stockholm - the HST is progressive, not regressive. When the new Ontario Sales Tax Credits kick in, $260 per person per year in the household, lower income families gain income through the HST. Middle to upper income families are the ones who lose. The HST should be counted as an anti-poverty measure!

StarSuburb

The poll I was working on (in Forest Hill, so admittedly not a great area) the breakdown was like PC 102 Liberal 53 NDP 2 Green 0.

I also have to admit I got a laugh out of the facebook status of a Liberal friend of mine; "Yo Eric Hoskins, I'm really happy for you and I'll let you finish, but Rick Johnson had one of the best by-election victories of all time!"

Stockholm

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

Odd that the Greens were the one party to drop in their percentage of the vote. The Liberals, PCs and NDP all went up marginally.

Its not actually all that odd. Its just further evidence that the quixotic little green mini-boomlet that got them 8% of the vote in the last Ontario election is OVER. There was a brief period where Elizabeth may was seen as the latest new thing, everyone was talking "green shift", "green plan" etc... the word "green" whether linked to that party - or more often NOT - was being bandied about constantly. That's all passe - and on top of that environmental issues have fallen off that map compared to a year or two ago. St. Paul's should have been an ideal riding for them to do well in - its full of exactly the kinds of anti-union Tories with composters and "techies in condos" that shoudl be their natural constituency. Yet they wound up with 5%. A year and a half ago the Greens finsihed ahead of the NDP in a federal byelection in Willowdale and almost did the same in Toronto Centre. That was last years story. This year's story is Green Party RIP!

Polunatic2

A bit of thread drift on voter turnout - just saw some stats over here - check out the last page: 

In 1975, there were 4.7 million voters of whom 3.3 million voted. That's about 67% according to elections ontario. 

In 2007, there were 8.5 million voters of whom 4.4 million voted (52%)

Of the 3.6 million additional voters in the last 35 years, there was only a gain of 1.1 million active voters. (I realize it's not that cut and dried but it does show the growing apathy with electoral politics. 

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Stockholm wrote:
St. Paul's should have been an ideal riding for them to do well in - its full of exactly the kinds of anti-union Tories with composters and "techies in condos" that shoudl be their natural constituency. Yet they wound up with 5%.

And Chris Chopik was actually a reasonably good candidate - young, personable, sensible, and somewhat successful in business. This was clearly their best shot at breaking through to a double digit result, and it went nowhere.

Lost in Bruce County

I think we should have a policy similar to Australia - compulsory voting or you receive fines and community service!

Wilf Day

Lost in Bruce County wrote:

I think we should have a policy similar to Australia - compulsory voting or you receive fines and community service!

I think we should have a voting system where every vote counts, and voting is never a waste of time or gasoline or both.

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:
As has been said, I think that the HST will be more of an issue in less affluent ridings and especially once it actually gets imposed next summer. St. Paul's was probably not a good riding in which to make it a central issue since its the second richest riding in Ontario. The HST is a regressive tax, but if you're rich then its regressive in your favour - so what's not to like!

Except that the Tories - who ran a single-issue campaign against the "Dalton Sales Tax" - did best in the wealthiest polls in the riding.

Quote:
I know that its not fashionable here to ever say anything nice about any Liberal, but I did have some dealings with Hoskins a few years ago on something work related and he actually is very nice and quite impressive. - doesn't mean I would vote for him - but I think that the more all the parties get progressive people in them - the better.

I'm sure if Hoskins had wanted to run for the NDP - they would have been ecstatic.

Stockholm

We have no way of knowing whether those people voted Tory in response to their anti-HST campaign or whether its just an area that always has a lot of Conservatives in it.

the HST was always a difficult issue for the Tories since it is largely a brainchild of the federal Tories.

Stuart_Parker

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

Odd that the Greens were the one party to drop in their percentage of the vote. The Liberals, PCs and NDP all went up marginally.

Not really. The Greens have no machine to pull their vote. Nobody was engaged with the election so basically the fraction of the voters who turned up were overwhelmingly propelled to the polls by party machines. The Greens didn't have much of a machine and so, even though they campaigned okay and canvassed and leafleted more than they would in a general election, they didn't have their vote identified and were ineffective at turning them out.

It also doesn't help that they are currently leaderless.

We can expect their vote to rise back to 8% for the general election here but I do breathe a sigh of relief that they have really hurt their relevance in the media, etc. They got little, perfunctory coverage and the media can now feel quite justified in their decisions to say little about them.

Stuart_Parker

Let me just add that gaining in vote share during a period when polls show our fortunes declining federally and provincially is impressive, especially in a campaign where the only apparent narrative was opposition to taxation and government waste.

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