Toronto Centre by-election continued
It's a fait accompli, says conventional wisdom. Toronto Liberal circles are abuzz with speculation about which cabinet post Premier Dalton McGuinty has in store for Glen Murray.
Overwhelmingly, Liberals expect Murray - ex-mayor of Winnipeg, and Toronto arriviste - to glide to victory in the Feb. 4 by-election in Toronto Centre, a so-called "safe seat" vacated by George Smitherman to run for mayor. Murray, who moved here in 2004, reportedly had a yen to run for mayor himself before deciding on Toronto Centre.
There is, however, one small problem - slight as it may be - with the idea the race is in the bag. Supporters of NDP candidate Cathy Crowe insist provincial Liberals are missing a groundswell of public discontent in Toronto Centre, over issues that include the upcoming harmonized sales tax and growing social problems. McGuinty is out of touch, they say, and Toronto Centre will prove it.
Linda Diebel, "Street Nurse Cathy Crowe takes Toronto Centre's pulse," Toronto Star, January 30, 2010.
Excuse the typo in the OP, it doesn't appear that I can edit it once its posted.
I fixed it for ya, robbie.
Gene Lara now appears as an endorser on both the Liberal and NDP campaign websites. Only two more political parties to go, Gene.
Gene Lara might like to get in touch with the Hatfields and McCoys of this race – the Freedom and Ontario Libertarian parties. And John Turmel. Just so his dance card's complete.
“Glen Murray has the experience and dedication to uphold and support issues of human rights, the environment, health care and community development. This makes him different from the rest of the candidates. He is a seasoned public servant with a proven track record of service. There is no doubt that he can improve the conditions of the people in the community. ”
"Cathy Crowe is the one candidate that voters should seriously consider as she has been involved in advocating for the homeless of this community. It is worth voting for a person who has been trying hard to alleviate the communities’ needs."
Are those quotes from their respective web sites? I suspect they are, but I'd like confirmation.
Yes
From a distance, all I can do is wish everyone working for Cathy Crowe good luck and a good week.
Thanks.
Cathy Crowe's got my vote. I would vote Green but for (1) their revised position on faith in schools, (2) FPTP, (3) I've never heard of the Green candidate, and (4) I haven't received any information about the Green candidate (forget his name now).
When did the Greens revise their position and what is it now?
When did the Greens revise their position and what is it now?
I'm not sure if there has been a formal policy change (I'm not involved at all with GPO), but I first heard about it in this interview: New GPO leader on TVO. I emailed them to seek clarification after I saw that, and they confirmed the change. They have gone from strong support of a single system, to the new leader immediately saying they will not be emphasizing this issue as it is "divisive", and now they are musing about bringing in an "open and inclusive space" in each school for children to practice *their* faith at lunch, et cetera as is done in our Universities apparently. The problem with that is University students are old enough to be responsible for their choice of faith / worldview. Whereas, by facilitating religious worship in public schools, we would be aiding the indoctrination of children with taxpayer dollars.
60% of Ontarians want one school system, and every party is afraid to touch it (Cue someone who is bound to say: the Greens got 8% and ZERO seats. Obviously this is not an issue people care about)
Yeah the Greens seem invisible this time around. I think Cathy Crowe who is an activist and not seen as a typical politician is likely to appeal to a lot of Green voters.
Which is probably a real untold story of this byelection. Even Pam Taylor's held her own, by comparison (well, enough for a likely token-solid David Hutcheon-ish 3rd place)
At the federal level, various pundits have been picking up on how there seems to be this disconnect between the Greens getting as much as 12 or 13% in some rather suspect national polls - but then getting 3% or less in each of the four recent federal byelections. I think the same questions are soon going to be asked at the provincial level. In the St. Paul byelection, the Green got something like 5% and now in Toronto Centre (where federally the Greens had shown some signs of relatively strength in the federal byelection in 2008) they seem destined to be blown out of the water. People are going to have to ask where this supposed green support is if it seems non-existent in two downtown Toronto ridings like St. Paul and Toronto Centre which ought to be somewhat fertile ground for them. You'd thnk they would run their new leader in the byelection just to get a bit of publicity.
Chris Tindal, who did very well in the byelection for the Greens, is running municipally for Kyle Rae's seat.
Stockholm does raise an important point about the lack of LGBT representation on Cathy Crowe's list of endorsements. The only one I recognize is community physician Alan Li, though there may be others who aren't visibly involved with LGBT issues. Why no endorsement from say, El-Farouk Khaki? Or perhaps Helen Kennedy, or former candidate Brent Hawkes?
"Glen Murray has the experience and dedication to uphold and support issues of human rights, the environment, health care and community development. This makes him different from the rest of the candidates. He is a seasoned public servant with a proven track record of service. There is no doubt that he can improve the conditions of the people in the community."
"Cathy Crowe is the one candidate that voters should seriously consider as she has been involved in advocating for the homeless of this community. It is worth voting for a person who has been trying hard to alleviate the communities' needs."
Actually, I'm told Gene's also endorsed Pam Taylor.
"The problem with that is University students are old enough to be responsible for their choice of faith / worldview. Whereas, by facilitating religious worship in public schools, we would be aiding the indoctrination of children with taxpayer dollars."
The GPO has not changed its position. Not emphasizing the one school system over the economy is not the same as changing policy. Equal funding is not a large issue in Toronto Centre and there are more immediate issues that need to be addressed. I have been touring schools for 30 years as a guest artist and accommodations have already been made in many schools to allow Muslim students, as an example, a chance to pray on Fridays. This is done discreetly and doesn't disrupt the school schedule one bit. A very simple solution for young people of faith. Allowing people to express their faith is not indoctrination of any kind. Religious studies in schools as a part of the social education curriculum is not indoctrination. If students can learn political systems and philosophy they can also learn moral values in the same manner. The GPO has been clear that money saved in a one board system can help finance full day kindergarten.
I don't know what you mean by FPTP when it is in the same sentence sequence as the others. The way to achieve proportional representation is to continue to express diverse views and votes. It won't happen by endorsing the old system which is already rigged towards the status quo. Since when does a candidate have to be 'famous'. Stefan has worked in the community for a long time and if you wanted to get to know him then just call/email him and ask him your questions or express your concerns. Dan Murray may be well known but so is McGuinty and the liberals and their record. Murray is trying to present himself as the guy who can get Dalton and the rest of his colleagues to see the light and it's simply not true.
The GPO is less visible in this campaign because there was no CA in place prior to the by-election call and the campaign is late getting underway. It certainly is not unusual for a Green campaign to be invisible to the media but Stefan has not been invisible to the community in general during this election. The target is maintaining the 9% or 10% earned in the last provincial election with the resources available. I'm not going to pretend to know how the residents of TC will vote so we'll know on Thursday what the results will be.
I've also heard recently that the liberals are worried and have had trouble generating the same volunteer enthusiasm in this election. Maybe that's just by-election apathy on the part of supporters who think this a 'done deal'. That's the beauty of by-elections sometimes. Once in awhile passion gets to kick the ass of apathy.
Thankfully the HST issue isn't dominating the campaign like it did in St. Paul's, where the NDP message was "send Dalton McGuinty a message, stop the HST."
The Greens actually seemed quite visible in St. Paul's. They had a fairly high profile candidate and lots of signs up.
And another difference from the St. Paul's byelection is a more aggressive NDP campaign souping up what might have been Green energy--by comparison, Julian Heller could never quite shake that perennial third-place factor vs Hoskins + Levy...
Re: Stefan. I've been working in the riding on the NDP campaign, and I haven't seen one sign or piece of campaign lit for him. Not one. Now, I freely admit I'm biased, but I've seen plenty of Murray and Taylor (and Crowe!) signs and campaign lit. Premdas has been virtually invisible to me and to Toronto Centre. The only bit of promo stuff I saw (at the 519 debate) were some generic GPO leaflets that they must have got from party HQ. Stefan put in a solid performance at the debate, but when you're not publicizing yourself, it's hard for you to get yourself known.
Complain about the MSM all you like, but your campaign being invisible to the voters of Toronto Centre doesn't help matters.
"The problem with that is University students are old enough to be responsible for their choice of faith / worldview. Whereas, by facilitating religious worship in public schools, we would be aiding the indoctrination of children with taxpayer dollars."
The GPO has not changed its position. Not emphasizing the one school system over the economy is not the same as changing policy. Equal funding is not a large issue in Toronto Centre and there are more immediate issues that need to be addressed. I have been touring schools for 30 years as a guest artist and accommodations have already been made in many schools to allow Muslim students, as an example, a chance to pray on Fridays. This is done discreetly and doesn't disrupt the school schedule one bit. A very simple solution for young people of faith. Allowing people to express their faith is not indoctrination of any kind. Religious studies in schools as a part of the social education curriculum is not indoctrination. If students can learn political systems and philosophy they can also learn moral values in the same manner. The GPO has been clear that money saved in a one board system can help finance full day kindergarten.
I disagree with most of this, and I'd like to discuss a few points in more detail so I'll start a new thread. I'll copy my post(s) the other relevant posts there and then those that want to discuss the religion in schools issue can join in.
I don't know what you mean by FPTP when it is in the same sentence sequence as the others. The way to achieve proportional representation is to continue to express diverse views and votes. It won't happen by endorsing the old system which is already rigged towards the status quo. Since when does a candidate have to be 'famous'. Stefan has worked in the community for a long time and if you wanted to get to know him then just call/email him and ask him your questions or express your concerns.
Granted if more people's votes are wasted it makes a more compelling case for PR, but it isn't a compelling reason for me to support the GPO or this candidate. It's a fact that the GPO has no chance at this time in this riding. If I were neutral as to whether the NDP, Liberal or Conservative wins the seat I'd consider voting Green so my vote is added to the statistics for the GPO. However, I'm far from neutral so I'll be supporting the NDP at this time.
I dropped a (condo tower) poll for Cathy on Saturday after attending an event in Toronto. I talked to a fair number of people in the elevator and corridors and the response was very very positive. I'm trying to arrange my schedule to make it back to the riding on E-Day, since I think it could be a close one.
Religion in schools (Green Party of Ontario)
Elections Ontario reports that 2001 voters in Toronto Centre cast ballots in six days of advance polls last week.
3,862 voters in Toronto Centre voted in advance polls over thirteen days in the last general election.
Neither the New Democrats nor the Liberals seem to want to make this a byelection about issues (unlike the NDP's HST-based St Paul's by-election). This appears to be a straight personality-based contest between local hero Kathy Crowe versus come-from-away Liberal Glen Murray.
Election night could turn into a very interesting one. Murray may take Rosedale (home of the Green Berets of the Liberals, for whom when Montreal is a smoking ruin, and the rest of the 416 a write-off, they will stand, shoulder-to-shoulder, to the end), but I think he will suffer a severe shock south of Bloor. If the blocks come out to support Crowe, they can easily nullify Rosedale and then some. The word nailbiter may very well apply.
No kidding...isn't 80% of the population south of Bloor?
As with most byelections, it's all about turnout. Whoever can get the most supporters to the polls wins.
@Lord Palmerston: I don't have the demographic data to hand, but I wouldn't be in the least surprised. Rosedale can vote whichever way it wants, because it alone won't make any real difference to the outcome (although from my perspective, I'd like them to choose Taylor, as she can't get arrested south of Bloor). Whoever sweeps the blocks gets the prize.
I've been wrong before on this, but the result here might just show how complacent the Ontario Liberals have become. Read (some of) the press and you get the idea that Murray's having his robe and ermine measured, ready for his coronation.
Crowe held a press conference today in St. Jamestown about inequitable access to polling stations. St. Jamestown has 8,866 voters and 3 polling stations. Three buildings on Bay Street have 910 voters, and 3 polling stations.
I found this out from her Facebook page, which as of today now has more supporters than Glen Murray's (and he had a significant head start).
In other by-election news, Pam Taylor outed John Baird this morning.
And Glen Murray slagged Bob Rae. "I am not Bob Rae" he intones. "I cut taxes every year I was mayor."
Of course he's not Bob Rae. Bob Rae is the one with the scarf. Whereas Glen is wearing just a blazer.
In other by-election news, Pam Taylor outed John Baird this morning.
Wow! I didn't hear that this morning!
Yet another puff piece from The Star (which, strangely, has commenting disabled for this article). His campaign must be in more trouble than we thought.
Has John Baird commented on his outing?
Has John Baird commented on his outing?
This will be interesting to watch. On the one hand, if the Tories backtrack on the outing they prove Andy Barrie's point and doom Pam Taylor's candidacy and also make it that much more difficult for them to win urban votes. If they confirm then the federal party risks a backlash from social conservatives.
I profiled Baird in 2006 when he joined Harper's cabinet. While he wasn't outed, he was noticed for some of his gay positive initiatives. From Wikipedia:
* Baird won a contested nomination battle for Ottawa West—Nepean Conservative nomination on May 5, 2005.... John Pacheco, a leader in the social conservative movement against same-sex marriage, had also sought the nomination but was disqualified due to past comments he had made alleging that homosexual practices posed a health risk.
* In December 2006, Baird was one of thirteen Conservative MPs who voted against reopening the national debate on same-sex marriage.[69]
Yes, to be fair, Baird hasn't been a hypocrite a la Larry Craig.
My guess is that he and the PMO will let the comment pass and hope that no one notices.
Baird was outed in the comments section of a post on Andrew Coyne's old blog, the day he got sworn into the federal cabinet. After a few hours, Coyne deleted all the evidence. I never saved a screenshot of it, but in any event it's nobody's business but Baird's whether he should come out or not. Nor should Andy Barrie have been asking those kinds of ad hominem questions. It should be about the candidates' policies and their parties' policies on issues of importance to the gay community. Not who's out and who's not, unless they're in the closet and voting against the community's interests.
Oh, and to answer another question from upthread, El-Farouk Khaki was one of Cathy Crowe's nominators at her nomination meeting, if you watch the speeches on YouTube.
The thing is, according to the media's rules of engagement, this now gives them grounds to mention it. I suspect Taylor outing Baird will be a minor story in the Globe and maybe the Star and that his sexual orientation will be mentioned in articles at least as often as it merits a mention in stories about Kathleen Wynne, Smitherman or Scott Brison ie occasionally.
How, exactly, is it ad hominem to ask "Can you think of a single openly gay Conservative politician, either provincially or federally, who is gay?" Particularly when Taylor is running in the riding that has the largest proportion of LGBT voters in Canada and has been claiming that her party is not homophobic?
I agree. I think its perfectly fair to ask why the Conservative Party has no openly gay MPs or MPPs. Similarly, if the entire Tory caucus was male - it would be legitimate to ask - why not a single woman?
For what it's worth, I have just returned from an hour long walk through Cabbagetown with my dog Angus. Crowe signs now outnumber Murray signs by about 2 to one. Taylor has perhaps 10% of Crowe's tally.
I know that Cabbagetwon is only a small part of the riding but the signs look encouraging for Crowe. My sense is that about a week ago Crowe and Murray had roughly the same number of signs here.
Can someone tell me where Crowe's party is on Thursday night? It might be very interesting.
For Crowe to win Taylor has to do much better in Rosedale than have recent Tory candidates. Any impression of how the campaign is going north of Bloor?
And the Greens are invisible I take it? They largely ate into the NDP vote in the last provincial and federal elections.
I was north of Bloor today - along Roxborough, Macpherson and Marlborough (west of Yonge so not Rosedale). Very, very few signs up. Taylor and Murray were about even, no green or orange.
Hm, could get interesting.
David Crombie used to use very artsy campaign signs in the 1980s that had only a very tiny Tory logo and didn't, as I recall, even use party colours (outside of the actual logo). Maybe that's the secret for strong Tory performances in Toronto? :)
No I didn't see a single Green sign. This contrasts with the federal byelection a couple years back where there was substantial Green signage.
I think Cathy Crowe is the kind of candidate who can appeal to people with progressive values but fed up with "politics as usual."
I walked through one part of Toronto Centre (south of Bloor) earlier this week. And I did see one Green Party sign. But it was generic and didn't include the local candidate's name. They're toast in this byelection.
How, exactly, is it ad hominem to ask "Can you think of a single openly gay Conservative politician, either provincially or federally, who is gay?" Particularly when Taylor is running in the riding that has the largest proportion of LGBT voters in Canada and has been claiming that her party is not homophobic?
Not exactly an answer to the question (as he wasn't "out" as an elected politician), but was there any RIP-ish mention of Keith Norton--who, as the PC candidate here in 1990, might have been the first "out" Tory candidate anywhere in Canada? (I may be wrong--or maybe I'm not.)
Nice guy though he is, Premdas is going to get flattened on February 4. Combine an ultra-active and aggressive NDP campaign with a limp Green effort, and the Greens are going to struggle to even remain relevant (5% is the maximum they can probably expect). As the guy says, they're toast.
I don't think Pamela Taylor's little whoops! moment is going to actually make that much of a difference, spectacular a mistake as it was. But any hopes of any measurable PC vote south of Bloor are gone. Her campaign is a write-off, and I'd be amazed if she was able to run a third time. The PCs can generally feel comfortable with anything over 20%. Below that, their relevancy will be in question, and Hudak's attempt to break through into Fortress Toronto will be in tatters.
1990 *is* pretty early, and pretty much near the dawn of time for an out Tory/PC candidate. I'm doing some research in the area, and I think that Mr. Norton was the first. Sad that his passing hasn't attracted wider comment.
For those of you interested in such things, here is a breakdown of Toronto Centre by neighbourhood (according to the City of Toronto neighbourhood map). The population figures are from the 2006 Census and the election results are from 2007.
That's awesome Krago, thanks for this.
L P
Thanks for your observations about the signs. It's quite helpful for folks who are unable to visit the riding during the campaign.
Wow, I'd never heard of Governors Bridge before. From the maps, it looks absolutely tiny. Tiny population, too. Learn something every day. It appears to be a small adjunct to Rosedale, but more Rosedale than Rosedale.
As Krago (tip o' the hat) so ably shows, Rosedale is only one neighbourhood. Even if Rosedale (and Yorkville, too, for that matter), votes solidly for Taylor, it won't matter a jot if the other neighbourhoods choose someone else.
The percentages are interesting. I have to wonder how much of Smitherman's vote was for him, and how much for being a Liberal. It's always difficult to parse these things, but given what's happening on the ground right now, I have to guess he built up a large personal following. When he went, it went, too.
Thanks, LP too. I rarely go into or near Rosedale, so it's nice to hear what's happening over there.
Jim Coyle's provincial affairs column in the Star today basically tells Toronto Centre voters to vote NDP. I am amazed!
He doesn't actually come out and say it, which might be all he can get away with. Amazing how buried it is on the Tor Star website though. Not in the front-page list of columns, not on the opinion page - had to find it by calling up all of Coyle's recent columns.
I am sure that is just some kind of technical glitch
Here's the link
Coyle: Microphone-hound oddly too shy for TV debate
Up against Murray however, in the person of New Democrat candidate and Toronto street nurse Cathy Crowe, is someone who may not talk in paragraphs but has lived in gospels. (And who was willing to do some talking on Paikin's show.)
So, anyone looking to support public broadcasting need not wait until the next telethon.
On Thursday, those living in Toronto Centre have an opportunity to punish presumption and defend TVO.
In fact, voters there have an almost risk-free (Mr. Murray might like that) chance to teach some lessons about not being taken for granted.
In this article in The Toronto Sun, Crowe indicates that she is sensing that victory is within reach, while Murray calls the NDP "desperate" and claims against all evidence that his real challenge will come from Taylor.
Hm, that's a rather desperate attempt by Murray to scare NDP-Liberal switchers into voting for him in order to head off a Tory vicotry. Problem is this is a by-election so even if anyone believed his claim that Taylor is the real threat it doesn't really matter since a Tory victory wouldn't make a difference since McGuinty will still be in power on Friday regardless and since Taylor herself isn't a scary individual.
It's also less likely to work in a by-election. People who vote in a by-election tend to be more motivated (afterall, they take the time to vote) and are much more likely to be informed about the individual candidates and their chances of winning. Saying that Taylor is a threat to Murray lacks any credibility.
Jim Coyle doesn't tell readers to vote NDP. He walks them to a certain point, and then invites them to take the next step. Great writing, but my, he is sailing close to the wind.
So Taylor is your nearest threat, Glen? Dream on, buddy. That noise you're hearing is full-scale panic from the Murray campaign. If he manages to lose this, he'll never run for the Liberals again (federally or provincially). If he thinks scare tactics will work on TC voters, he is sadly mistaken.
@nicky
Cathy Crowe's party is going to take place at the ABC Ballroom, Ramada Plaza hotel, 300 Jarvis Street (just south of Carlton). The party starts at 9:00 p.m. (February 4). You might want to get there early.
No one should arrive at the party until they've pulled every possible vote that they can.
Oh dear, I guess I've been called out on my assertion as to what Andy Barrie should and should not have asked. And of course while I do believe that a wide diversity of candidates should run, and parties should try to have folks of all backgrounds in their caucuses, I just think it matters more what those people stand for and what their voting records are, than certain physical or genetic attributes they might happen to have. It wouldn't be an issue as much for the Conservatives if they had a good record on those issues, but I still maintain it's not up members of the media to judge anyone's record or worthiness according to traits they have no control over, and I don't think they should be in the business of outing people.
Barrie wasn't asking her to out anyone. She did that on her own (and he apparently didn't even realize that she had done so).
In other by-election news, folks in Winnipeg are watching the pending Murray train wreck with amusement.
In a recent interview with the Toronto Star, Murray got some great ink suggesting that he has, in fact, successfully shunned his tag as an outsider and now has a very good shot at making a mark in the world of high-level party politics. The story also continues speculation that he is going directly into cabinet.
Then things get weird. In the interview, the reporter asks Murray about the help he has received from Liberal MP and former Ontario Premier Bob Rae, whose federal seat encompasses Murray's prospective provincial riding. Rae has lent Murray the entire weight of his election machine. He has appeared at Murray fundraisers, spun gold about Murray's candidacy in the Toronto media, and is widely quoted and photographed on Murray's website.
But when he was asked if he was following in Rae's footsteps - a politician who got out of the game only to make a high-profile comeback - Murray turned on Rae.
"I'm not like Bob Rae," Murray said. "I cut taxes every year I was mayor."
Rae, who was in Winnipeg Tuesday on the Liberal anti-prorogation national tour, is furious about the comments, according to sources. And rightly so. Murray had a reputation in Winnipeg for biting the hands that tried to feed him and get him elected. Both John Harvard, the MP who stepped aside for Murray to run in Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia and Lloyd Axworthy, the dean of former Liberal MPs, lavished Murray with their best people and support. Murray eventually spurned those offers, and installed his own people. And got whipped by now Tory MP and Minister of Democratic Renewal Steven Fletcher.
Exploiting Rae's high-profile and political machine, and then trying to distance yourself from his somewhat ambiguous legacy in Ontario, is pretty cynical stuff. And although Murray is the odds-on favourite to win this by-election, it's hard to imagine Rae's people working really hard to get out the vote on E-day, February 4.
Could this be a tragic mistake, a stumble in the final stages of a sure thing? Hard to say. But there will be a lot of Liberals watching with interest Thursday when the votes are counted.
We warned the good people of Toronto Centre to prepare for a Gong Show. The Sausage Factory makes no apologies for being right on this one.
Offending Rae could be a big deal. Rae is notoriously tempermental with those who cross him and the failure of his machine to make its expected appearance on E-Day could be the final nail in Murray's political coffin.
From today's Inside Queen's Park (no link available):
The Economist reports that Scott Brown's Jan. 19 Massachusetts victory was powerfully advanced when he slammed a media reference to "Ted Kennedy's seat", instead insisting he was running for "the people's seat".
So what does IQP suppose is happening in tomorrow's Toronto Centre by-election? In 'street nurse' Cathy Crowe the NDP is surely running the closest thing to a super-hero ever seen on the hustings in Ontario. A very prominent LIB heavyweight began by asking Crowe's prospects and then told us that his household's votes had already been cast for her in the advance poll. However, Tory sources note they led the third party by several hundred votes in both 2003 and 2007, and deny sensing any strong movement for Crowe. Yet Murray's refusal to take part in the TVO all-candidates' debate surely signifies nervousness, even cowardice. Not what you would expect from a hot-shot.
Having steered Glen Murray into running for his riding instead of entering the mayoralty march, George Smitherman has worked hard to elect the talkative ex-Winnipegger. Crowe's push to keep faith with the poor can't be expected to sweep Rosedale, and there's some visible rallying round the same-sex redoubt (Murray being the third consecutive Gay LIB to run here). But Crowe will be boosted strongly by the crusade to preserve Grace Hospital.
Even so, one seasoned NDP activist fails to decry the signs of upset which were present when NDPer Paul Ferreira snatched Joe Cordiano's former York South-Weston LIB seat three years ago. Yet If Crowe were to make it, or even hold Murray to a narrow margin, the shock to the McGuinty government would be severe. Having celebrated him so smugly at the outset, promoting a new but battered MPP right into cabinet would be chastening.
The odds against Toronto Centre going NDP are very high. But, on the other hand, I am hearing vibes from non-partisan Queen's Park civil servants that the Libs are terrified and think they are in trouble there. We'll see tomorrow night, I guess.
Dumping $15 million into a hospital the day before an election indicates a certain amount of panic.
"The Salvation Army has saved Toronto Grace hospital.... After the Star revealed the uncertainty swirling around the Grace last week, the Liberal government, wary of Thursday's by-election in Toronto Centre, sprang into action.
Matthews, whose office had been aware of the possible closure of the facility since March 2009, scrambled to get a deal to keep the hospital in its historic location.
The hospital needs nearly $15 million in infrastructure upgrades and that was a key issue for the Army and whether or not it would stay at the Grace..."
The IQP article contains some amusing half-truths. The Tories not detecting any swing behind Crowe evidently haven't been listening, or even stepped south of Bloor. Or they're lying through their teeth and hoping against hope they can somewhere close to 2nd.
The mood I'm detecting is that the Liberals are severely rattled. Murray calling the NDP "desperate" is proof of that, oddly enough. Why shoot at a dead duck?
If Crowe wins, or even if Murray squeaks in, expect blood on the carpet at Liberal headquarters. There will be recriminations galore, not least between Murray's and Rae's camps. After all, if the NDP manages to shake loose one of the jewels in the Liberal firmament, won't they be enboldened to give Bob's seat a good rattling at the next federal election? If Toronto Centre can fall, would there even be such a thing as a safe Liberal seat? Aaaah, a good old Liberal fratricidal quarrel. I've missed them.
If the NDP gets the blocks out, then the impossible (as thought by everyone else) could happen. History could very well be made tomorrow.
I happen to think the saving of Toronto Grace hospital, wonderful as it is, will be too little, too late for the Liberals. People will see this as the last desperate act of a party to stop what they see as a highly regrettable incident: them losing Toronto Centre.
FWIW I spotted a honking big Crowe sign looking down Roxborough E from Yonge, and another looking down Rowanwood. Yes, that's right, in the heart of Chestnut Park. Rosedale, that is.
From today's Inside Queen's Park (no link available):
Tim Murphy was gay? Who knew?
So, is anyone here willing to bet on a Crowe victory tomorrow night?
I think the Tories will win North of Bloor, the NDP will win South of Bloor and Glen Murray will eke out a narrow win.
Here's my prediction:
Liberals, 41%
NDP, 31%
Conservatives, 22%
Greens, 5%
Murray wins by about 2500 votes.
I'm going to put this in the Too Close to Call column, but to indulge myself, here are my guesstimates (all numbers rounded up/down):
Greens: 4%
Liberals: c.34%
NDP: c. 36%
PCs: 24%
Although I have Crowe taking it, it's within 2%, so definite margin of error territory. If Rae's machine stays home and plays canasta out of pique, and if the NDP shake every friendly poll up and down to get every last supporter out, I'm going to pin this on Crowe by a margin of 500-1,000 votes (maybe a little more).
LP is being a little too generous with the Greens. They going to go down to absolute baseline vote who would vote Green no matter what. The Crowe campaign has played an extremely strong ground game, and any NDP/Green flips will go NDP, as they know Crowe is a better bet for their values to get heard.
If Taylor picks up any steam south of Bloor (and I mean *any*), then she will eat into Murray's vote, and big things could happen.
Star and Globe articles. The Star article makes a good point about turnout being depressed. I'm going to guess around 25-30% turnout. While it's not likely to snow today, there's still plenty of slush around and it's staying in minus territory all day.
Turmoil around the Salvation Army's plans to withdraw and the facility's future quickly became a headache for Glen Murray - the Liberal candidate in Toronto-Centre - and he has lashed out at opponents for raising what he called a red herring.
"Perhaps today, the only thing redder than herring, might be Glen Murray's face," New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath said, crediting her party's candidate Cathy Crowe with forcing the government to deal with the issue. "It's unfortunate the McGuinty government was playing politics with these patient's lives."
Sorry, just delivered Cathy her Kiss of Death - I voted for her.
People I vote for tend to lose.
I really think Murray will win, but not by the margin that Hoskins' won by in St. Paul's. Liberals always whip themselves up into frenzies in the last few days of a by-election, particularly those where the outcome is practically pre-determined. I think Palmerston's prediction is closest, although with the NDP and Conservatives totals closer to each other's.
But this being a by-election, I always think there's room for surprises and for the received wisdom to be confounded. After all, no-one (outside the NDP and his supporters) thought Paul Ferreira could win, until he did.
I predict that Crowe will win by one vote and that it will be Doug's.
Wouldn't that be wonderful?!
Good luck to you all, and Bob Rae should be ashamed of himself, but then that's hardly an original or new thought.
I couldn't get Scott's link to open.
It's found here:
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/02/03/12731271.html
Move to my riding, Doug. You'll love it. :) (I can brag now that I'm no longer in Davenport.)
I work in Cathy Crowe's riding - wish I could vote here! She's amazing. Wouldn't it be fabulous if she won?
This was posted as news on Glen Murray's website:
Toronto Mayoral candidate George Smitherman, the Hon. Bob Rae, MP Toronto Centre and the Hon. Pierre Pettigrew were among the first to vote for Glen Murray in the Toronto Centre by-election.
Pierre Pettigrew! What a blast from the past. I wonder if he's going to be at the Liberal party tonight, or else in Paris getting his mane trimmed.For those questioning LGBT support for Cathy, I was one of her nominators at her Nomination Meeting, and have canvassed with her in thsi campaign.
Pierre Pettigrew? If that's the best he can do, Glen must surely be in trouble! I jest, really.
I have to agree with El-Farouk; I haven't seen any groundswell of "Cathy Crowe hasn't made LGBT issues the centrepiece of her campaign, so I'm voting for Glen Murray even though I'd normally vote NDP" sentiment in the gay village. The neighbourhood's always been kind of divided between the red and orange teams, so it's always been a bit of a tussle -- but I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that Crowe's campaign has been bleeding gay NDPers.
I mean, come on. Does anybody seriously think Crowe hasn't already demonstrated her bona fides on LGBT issues a million times over?
That. and the gay vote probably isn't what it once was in the riding.
61 out of 292 polls:
Murray 44.4
Crowe 36.0
Taylor 15.6
Premdas 2.9
99 polls in:
Murray 46.8
Crowe 34.0
Taylor 15.1
Premdas 2.8
204 polls in:
Murray: 45.8
Crowe: 32.7
Taylor 16.7
Premdas 3.2
I've started a new thread here.
A quick look at the past provincial and federal results for this riding show that (by a mile) this is going to be the best showing for the NDP in this area in some time, possibly the best ever.
Scooped by the fast moving Maysie
Okay trying again: continue here.
Closing.
P.S. to Banjo: not fast enough apparently.