Toronto Centre By-Election

103 posts / 0 new
Last post
Doogan
Toronto Centre By-Election

I figure this will need it's own thread soon:

Liberals have announced a nomination meeting for Toronto Centre to replace George Smitherman as candidate.
This means the governing Liberals must be readying to hold the by-election, perhaps even before the legislature returns in February.
This was posted in another thread on failing polling numbers for McGuinty:
MadMax said: The Opposition parties should be getting their ducks in a row now, and start walking the beat. Failure to do so will result in failure.
I agree, has anyone heard if Tim Hudak or Andrea Horwath and their respective parties have begun the process for nomination, or is it going to be a situation like in St. Paul's or HKLB where they are rushed into selecting a candidate?
Any potential names out there?
Is Pamela Taylor, a firm John Tory supporter going to run under Harris 2.0?
Will Gonzalez run for the NDP again? or will a former federal candidate like El-Farouk Khaki run?

Stockholm

I know that the NDP has been approaching people about running in TC for the past couple of months - but its hard to get people to run when the chances of winning are widely deemed to be non-existent.

adma

Especially with a Liberal candidate such as Glen Murray who, more than even Smitherman (and a little less by-proxy than Bob Rae), seems positioned to sponge up a lot of wouldbe NDP constituency...

Doug

I wonder how a lefty Liberal is going to run on privatizing everything in sight?

Stockholm

Two possibilities: either the Liberals are just floating a trial balloon and have no intention of selling and government assets anyways, OR if they do, they will wait to announce anything until after a snap byelection in the middle of February.

Sunday Hat

Even more than St Pauls this is a riding that's tailor-made for the Liberals. Rosedale is a barren hellish nightmare for New Dems. Tories will be lucky if they get shot in St Jamestown. Liberals can win by coming second everywhere.

That said, anything can happen.

Stockholm

That being said, there is an NDP base vote in Toronto Centre in places like Cabbagetown and Regent Park and some of the coop housing units etc...to a greater extent than has ever existed in St. Paul's. While I don't thnk its winnable, based in hisoric voting patterns, the NDP ought to be able to come in second in TC and get about 25% of the vote in a byelection as opposed to being 3rd with 18% in St. Paul's.

adma

If it was winnable, it'd depend on an Outremont-scale Liberal candidacy boob-up and an extraordinary New Democrat standard-bearer--let's say, if Glen Murray returned to his political roots.

Anyway, "coming in second everywhere" was basically how Ian Scott squeaked out re-election in 1990...

Sunday Hat

At the risk of drift...

There's rumors Jim Watson's going to run for Mayor of Ottawa, Kim Craitor's running for Mayor of Niagara Falls, others?

OldManActivist OldManActivist's picture

"156,500 people in Toronto receiving Ontario Works assistance in October - 23,300 more than in October 2008"

Toronto Star, Dec24

 

Hope the issues focus will be on this, not who is popular....

V. Jara

ONDP should attack on privatisation. Other than LCBO, what else is on the table? When is the province going to start selling off buildings like the federal government has been doing? What are the chances some of those buildings might be in pricey Toronto Centre real estate? It could make a good sell, but then where will people in Toronto Centre get their services...Scarborough?

ETA: The ONDP will probably continue (and should) its HST attack, but privatisation allows the ONDP to differentiate itself from the Tories and hurt the Liberals.

ETA2: What is Kyle Rae going to do post-municipal politics?

Stockholm

I don't think Kyle Rae would be quitting politics unless he had a really good job of some sort lined up.

adma

And I'm pretty iffy about Kyle Rae's returning to the fold as an NDP candidate unless the ONDP attained a little more ManSask "legitimacy"--which might as well involve *Bob* Rae returning to the NDP as well...

Stockholm

Ironically, Kyle Rae left the NDP in the first place to protest against Bob Rae for being such a dreadful premier!

V. Jara

Ontario is heading for a Scrooge budget. The economy is still quite crappy. The debt is high and growing by the day. It's got to be a matter of time before that voter malaise catches up with the Liberals. The ONDP needs to tap into that anger. I doubt the anger is going to be directed at any one policy, I think it is just going to be a general anger with Liberal mismanagement. In fact, that's what the Toronto Centre pamphlets should read "Ontario Liberal Mismanagment," followed with a bunch of bullet points about the Liberal party's failures. I think this slogan would ring true in a riding where over 35% works in management or business occupations and another 22% in sales and the service sector.

adma

How's the Rev. Brent Hawkes positioned relative to the party these days?  After all, he overachieved in 1995...

Toronto Centre NDP

Hi Folks, TC NDP here, just to let you know preparations are well underway for the upcoming by-election.  Candidate search has been done, and we are ready to set the nomination meeting date, probably in the next two weeks, maybe sooner if the writ drops next Monday or Tuesday as expected. Stay tuned.  If you want more information, you can write to info@tcndp.ca or call 416-657-2531 Voting at the nomination meeting is limited to members in good standing so if you've let your membership lapse, now's a really good time to get current.

social democrat

Many of us in downtown Toronto received an e-mail today from Cathy Crowe announcing that she will be contesting the TCNDP provincial by-election nomination. I haven't heard about yet anyone else running.

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

Toronto Centre NDP wrote:

Hi Folks, TC NDP here, just to let you know preparations are well underway for the upcoming by-election.  Candidate search has been done, and we are ready to set the nomination meeting date, probably in the next two weeks, maybe sooner if the writ drops next Monday or Tuesday as expected. Stay tuned.  If you want more information, you can write to info@tcndp.ca or call 416-657-2531 Voting at the nomination meeting is limited to members in good standing so if you've let your membership lapse, now's a really good time to get current.

That's NDP members in good standing who live in the ridng.Cool

social democrat

Everyone expects the provincial by-election to be called early next week for the soonest possible date, with probably only a four or five week campaign as in St. Paul's. The Liberals and Conservatives have already announced their nomination dates. Libs are running Glen Murray. PC's are running Pamela Taylor again. The ONDP has yet to announce a nomination date.

Sunday Hat

Has George Smitherman resigned his seat yet?

He still seems to be an MPP.

It seems a little premature to assume the writ drop will happen while he's still collecting a paycheque.

Sunday Hat

Cathy Crowe seems pretty formidable.

Honorary degree recieving, award-winning, dynamic well-known woman.

Who's - ahem - from Toronto.

Not bad.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

He's pulling a Kennedy... Announcing his intention to resign while continuing to rely on the taxpayers to ensure that he can live in the lifestyle to which he's become accustomed.

social democrat

Smitherman has finally resigned. The Liberal nomination meeting is this Wednesday (Jan 6th). The St. Paul's by-election was called on a Wednesday (Aug 19th) with the vote four weeks later on Thursday (Sept 17th).  Any bets about the byelection date being Thursday (February 3rd)?

Lord Palmerston

I think Cathy Crowe would be an excellent candidate.

social democrat

Activist seeks NDP nomination in Toronto Centre

ctvtoronto.ca

A nurse and veteran advocate for Toronto's homeless will be seeking the NDP nomination for Toronto-Centre.

Cathy Crowe is the only declared candidate to seek the NDP nomination so far. The party has scheduled a nomination meeting for Jan. 24, but may move it up depending on when Premier Dalton McGuinty calls a byelection.

"I know the riding inside out, and I've seen a lot of bad policy decisions made by this current government," Crowe told ctvtoronto.ca on Tuesday. "I feel like I can be a voice for people."

She said the misspending of the eHealth scandal angered her, and she wants bring attention to the effects of the worsening economy combined with declining funding for social agencies.

"It's the right time in my life to actually do this," said the first-time political candidate.

Crowe said no other NDP hopefuls have stepped forward yet.

The byelection is necessary because Liberal MPP George Smitherman has resigned his seat to run for mayor of Toronto, although he hasn't formally registered as a candidate yet.

Crowe has solid progressive credentials. She helped found the Toronto Disaster Relief Committee in 1998 and authored "Dying for a Home." She is the subject of the documentary "Street Nurse."

She has been honoured with a 2003 International Nursing Ethics Award and a 2004 Atkinson Charitable Foundation Economic Justice Award.

A nurse and veteran advocate for Toronto's homeless will be seeking the NDP nomination for Toronto-Centre.

Cathy Crowe is the only declared candidate to seek the NDP nomination so far. The party has scheduled a nomination meeting for Jan. 24, but may move it up depending on when Premier Dalton McGuinty calls a byelection.

"I know the riding inside out, and I've seen a lot of bad policy decisions made by this current government," Crowe told ctvtoronto.ca on Tuesday. "I feel like I can be a voice for people."

She said the misspending of the eHealth scandal angered her, and she wants bring attention to the effects of the worsening economy combined with declining funding for social agencies.

"It's the right time in my life to actually do this," said the first-time political candidate.

Crowe said no other NDP hopefuls have stepped forward yet.

The byelection is necessary because Liberal MPP George Smitherman has resigned his seat to run for mayor of Toronto, although he hasn't formally registered as a candidate yet.

Crowe has solid progressive credentials. She helped found the Toronto Disaster Relief Committee in 1998 and authored "Dying for a Home." She is the subject of the documentary "Street Nurse."

She has been honoured with a 2003 International Nursing Ethics Award and a 2004 Atkinson Charitable Foundation Economic Justice Award.

adma

If it were a Tim Murphy rather than a Glen Murray she were up against, she'd have a terrific chance.

kitest

as  a long time toronto centre resident i am super encouraged by her entry into the fore. assuming she secures the nomination, it will be a solid campaign that will command some serious funding from the disparate and fragmented funding streams that tc ndp seems to be hit and miss on depending on the candidates. combine the $$ with the media attention and diverse seleciton of endorsements she'll receive, this will likely be the (by) election where the ndp here secures more than 30% of the vote

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

So, does anyone think that Murray is going to have any pushback as a come-from-away? Or don't Torontians care (given that they may assume that everyone in the country wants to move to Toronto anyway)?

ndpman

kitest wrote:

as  a long time toronto centre resident i am super encouraged by her entry into the fore. assuming she secures the nomination, it will be a solid campaign that will command some serious funding from the disparate and fragmented funding streams that tc ndp seems to be hit and miss on depending on the candidates. combine the $$ with the media attention and diverse seleciton of endorsements she'll receive, this will likely be the (by) election where the ndp here secures more than 30% of the vote

 

 

I hesitate to think that the party will drop too much $ on a by-election in a "unwinnable riding". It would take a massive volunteer effort to shuttle the poor and disenfranchised to the polls to pull off a win in this part of town.  I would suggest the party focus on preparing the financial resources for 2011 or find messaging that resonates with the people that actually show up to the polls in Toronto Center. 

Polunatic2

Quote:
Any bets about the byelection date being Thursday (February 3rd)?
According to this report, you were one day off unless you meant Thursday, February 4th
Quote:
 Premier Dalton McGuinty set the date Wednesday to fill the vacancy left by former deputy premier George Smitherman, who has left to run for mayor of Toronto.
Good luck to Cathy Crowe. 

Riya

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

So, does anyone think that Murray is going to have any pushback as a come-from-away? Or don't Torontians care (given that they may assume that everyone in the country wants to move to Toronto anyway)?

Doubt it - I've heard that about half of all Torontonians are from somewhere else. Something like 45% of Torontonians were not born in Canada. So CFAs are no big deal in TO.

 

Lord Palmerston

I really, really doubt it will be an issue, and it shouldn't be.  The riding is extraordinarily diverse, with people from all over Canada and all over the world living there. 

Sunday Hat

I think a bigger issue might be that he's alraedy measuring the drapes of a Cabinet office. There's an arrogance to the Liberals assumptions about Murray's inevitability.

adma

I don't think the NDP should treat this as precisely unwinnable, since the optics of a really bad loss (esp. w/a candidate like Crowe) wouldn't be so great.

And re naysayers who want to point to Murray's fed loss in 2004: bear in mind that he lost with a higher share than Smitherman won with in 1999...

Sunday Hat

Well, when he ran in Winnipeg he was running in the town where he was Mayor. And he lost.

Now, he's running in a (much bigger) City that's about a 22 hour drive from the place where he was a household name. About a decade ago.

So, he's a "star candidate" in the sense that the Toronto Star runs his op-eds but I'd be very surprised if many voters have ever heard of him.

That said: he's a Liberal, in a riding where Liberals win pretty big and New Dems don't. So that works in his favor.

 

social democrat

Byelections are decided by turnout. Turnout is based on organization, and on whether there is genuine emotion and excitement around a candidate.  I'd guess that the voters who like Cathy Crowe really, really like her.  And that the voters who really, really like Glenn Murray could meet in in a phone booth. I predict big turnout problems for the Libs, especially in the multi-cultural areas where they have not been as strong provincially as federally.

madmax

I predict an upset.

ndpman

adma wrote:

I don't think the NDP should treat this as precisely unwinnable, since the optics of a really bad loss (esp. w/a candidate like Crowe) wouldn't be so great.

Agreed. I think their best move would be to use this by-election to gain as much publicity as possible.  ONDP leader next to celebrated street nurse in as many photo ops as conceivable talking about healthcare reform, HST tax grab, buy Ontario, pensions for workers etc etc. I wouldn't spend too much money on the actual campaign though.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Polunatic2 wrote:

Quote:
Any bets about the byelection date being Thursday (February 3rd)?
According to this report, you were one day off unless you meant Thursday, February 4th.

Then again, everyone knows that Canadian February has two Thursdays in the first week.  It's why you guys had to get rid of a down in football.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Party politics aside, the voters of Toronto Centre should not pass up the opportunity to have someone of the calibre of Cathy Crowe represent them.

Polunatic2

I hate to say it, but the liberals could run an old shoe there and it would probably win. 

However, having seen the effort that the NDP put into the St. Paul's by-election, I would expect the same in T-C with at least a half-decent result.

[thread drift] John Tory is not running for mayor of Toronto. [/thread drift]

Sineed

Scott Piatkowski wrote:

Party politics aside, the voters of Toronto Centre should not pass up the opportunity to have someone of the calibre of Cathy Crowe represent them.

I agree, though the MSM is reporting a shoo-in for Murray.  

StarSuburb

Its from an annoyingly pro-liberal perspective, but it does raise some issues if Pam Taylor runs again:

 

http://theliberalscarf.blogspot.com/2010/01/how-will-pam-taylor-answer-t...

Sunday Hat

The MSM reported a shoo-in for Laura Albanese and Sylvia Watson too. Remember them?

Krago

Here is the electoral map for Toronto Centre from the 2007 provincial election.

Sunday Hat

Lots of room to grow. Laughing

Seriously though, can you generate a map for York South Weston in 2003?

Actually, how DO you generate those maps? They're neat.

Sunday Hat

Great article in the Toronto Star:

And as he was nominated, the man who would replace departed cabinet minister George Smitherman unburdened himself of a remark of such Protean genius it could fuel doctoral researches for generations to come.

"I am very proud to be a McGuinty Liberal," Murray declared..

A McGuinty Liberal? What in the name of William Lyon Mackenzie King might that mean?

... when Glen Murray pledges fealty to the recurring mood swing that is McGuinty Liberalism, it is a head-scratcher sufficient to challenge the analytical powers of Stephen Hawking.

Now, Cathy Crowe is aiming to be the NDP candidate running against Murray. She's a local icon of all that's good in humanity, a public-health nurse who took her skills and compassion to the streets, working with society's castoffs in the 1990s.

Since then, she's written a book on working with the homeless, been awarded honorary doctorates, the Atkinson Foundation economic justice award, been the subject of a documentary, got into political advocacy.

"Tireless advocate." "Saint of the streets." "A persistent go-getter." "To know her is to love her."

High praise, indeed.

Crowe has said she likes to use the term "street nurse" in describing herself. "It makes a very strong point."

Not nearly as versatile a term, or ticket to upward mobility as "McGuinty Liberal" perhaps, but it's hard to disagree.

Krago

I don't have the polling division maps for 2003, but here is an electoral map of York South-Weston from the 2007 provincial election.

Enjoy!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Have the people in the four little yellow squares ever met?  Perhaps they should start a support group.

StarSuburb

Interesting to see some Green polls in Toronto Centre. I wonder how many ridings last provincial election had all 4 major parties win polls? Eyeballing results, the only ones I can think of maybe Guelph, Ottawa Centre, Beaches-East York.

Pages

Topic locked