Toronto Centre By-Election

103 posts / 0 new
Last post
adma

Greens didn't win anything in Ottawa Centre or BEY.

And judging from what I know of the 2007 results, I think those Green polls in the map are some kind of mapping defect--if Krago can clarify what's going on there...

bekayne

Krago wrote:

Here is the electoral map for Toronto Centre from the 2007 provincial election.

Seeing as how people are dismissing the party that usually comes in 2nd in this riding-is that blue thing a lake?

Doug

That blue thing is Rosedale.

hsfreethinkers hsfreethinkers's picture

adma wrote:

And judging from what I know of the 2007 results, I think those Green polls in the map are some kind of mapping defect--if Krago can clarify what's going on there...

That's my neck of the woods! Though I only voted once.

StarSuburb

Pam Taylor is confirmed as the PC candidate

adma

Actually, on closer examination, it appears that the polling divisions were renumbered.  So I referred back to the 2007 map, and that green spot, Poll 101, seems to be an unchecked tabulation-error defect, where the Green candidate got 46 votes, Liberal 13, PC zero, NDP 1, "independent" Marxist-Leninist Philip Fernandez 19, and another independent, Gary Leroux, with 7.

I'd suspect those 46 votes should be retroactively reassigned to Smitherman, in accordance with overall riding patterns.

little fish

NDP nomination meeting:

Sunday, Jan. 10 at 3:00 pm

in the Auditorium of the 519 Church Street Community Centre (519 Church Street, just north of Wellesley, a short walk from Wellesley Subway Station)

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath will be the guest speaker.

The only declared candidate is Cathy Crowe, an internationally-acclaimed nurse and passionate advocate for affordable housing and better public heaLth care, who lives and works in Toronto Centre.

Cathy has earned numerous professional accolades. She is the recipient of an International Nursing Ethics Award, the Atkinson Charitable Foundation's Economic Justice Award and three honourary doctorates, from McMaster University, the University of Ottawa and the University of Victoria.

Cathy is also a frequent media commentator and is the author of "Dying for a Home". She was the subject of the documentary "Street Nurse" and helped found the Toronto Disaster Relief Committee in 1998.

For more information call 416-657-2531 or email info@tcndp.ca

Maysie Maysie's picture

Doug wrote:

That blue thing is Rosedale.

Ha ha ha! Doug you're hilarious.

After living in TC which I also call a Liberal hell-hole (at all 3 levels! Cripes!) for close to 3 years now, all I can say is, I really doubt the NDP can gain any significant ground here. Cathy Crowe is amazing, I hope she wins the nomination, and I'm sorry that I won't be able to attend the meeting this afternoon.

George Victor

The author of Dying for a Home represents the best of a frontline breed, and will at the very least cause the conspicuous consumers to be less conspicuous  at a time of advancing structural unemployment.

kitest

just returned from attending the nomination meeting. great energy with 200+in attendance. as the other rabblers have noted, it will be an uphill climb to win (wow, that riding map was overwhelming!) but i don't agree with anyone suggesting that it won't be competitive. it's liberal in all those areas not just because there are liberal voters there but also because of the super turbo charged transient nature of the residents -who are often undecided until e-day...and this is proven in terms of how polls within polls change frequently in the riding from election to election.

it's now confirmed that there is big $$ and machinery behind the campaign, pamela taylor will fare well in rosedale vs lib ridings, and cathy crowe herself is a special candidate. i predict a 35-30-22 vote breakdown (lib-ndp-pc) with greens in early teens

either way with cathy crowe running, i'll be doing less rabble rousing and more knocking, leafletting and calling over the next month

Bookish Agrarian

What in the heck are the Greens thinking by not running their Toronto living leader in this by-election.  Sure it is a no-hoper, but what a good way to test run their new leader, who has only ever run once before that I know of.

StarSuburb

2008 federal candidate Ellen Michelson is running for the Green Party of Ontario, apparently.

 

As for a prediction, I'm going to say Lib 39, PC 29, NDP 22, Green 8, fringe parties a combined 2, if any run.

Sunday Hat
adma

One thing to consider re prospects: Cathy Crowe is more of a "profile" candidate than Julian Heller was.

Then again, so was Sue-Ann Levy.

Krago

Here's how Toronto Centre has voted over the past few elections:

2003 Prov.: Liberal-53%, PC-22%, NDP-20%, Green-4%, Others-1%

2004 Fed.: Liberal-57%, Cons.-15%, NDP-24%, Green-4%, Others-1%

2006 Fed.: Liberal-52%, Cons.-18%, NDP-24%, Green-5%, Others-1%

2007 Prov.: Liberal-48%, PC-20%, NDP-19%, Green-10%, Others-3%

2008 Fed. By: Liberal-59%, Cons.-12%, NDP-14%, Green-14%, Others-1%

2008 Fed.: Liberal-54%, Cons.-18%, NDP-15%, Green-12%, Others-1%

P.S. Whatever happened to Red Tory-turned-Alexa-fan David MacDonald?

gouldberg81

Murray is obviously the one to beat . Cathy Crowe --with whom I'm very impressed -- could be the one to do it. Of course as usual and especially in this riding, I'm afraid the Grits and NDP will split the vote and the neo-cons will slither up the middle. ( It happened before with Basset ). In the name of fairness , I'd really like to know the full slate of candidates.

adma

gouldberg81 wrote:
Of course as usual and especially in this riding, I'm afraid the Grits and NDP will split the vote and the neo-cons will slither up the middle. ( It happened before with Basset ).

In this particular seat, the more pertinent Tory-slithering-up-the-middle name is *ahem* Al Leach.

Sunday Hat

Crowe website is up: http://cathycrowe.ca

 

social democrat

My prediction is that the NDP % vote will be substantially higher than anything since David Macdonald in 2007. The other three parties will have end up with a substantially lower percentage vote than in 2007.

social democrat

My second prediction is that I will learn to preview and edit my posts in 2010. I meant 1997 for David Macdonald.

adma

Though all in all, David Macdonald didn't do much better, sharewise, than Smitherman's NDP opponents in 2003 and 2007--and in fact, federally speaking, Michael Shapcott outpolled Macdonald in both 2004 and 2006...

hsfreethinkers hsfreethinkers's picture

Does anyone know much about the Green candidate? I'm not that keen on the provincial Greens now as they flip-flopped
on their faith in education policy. They went from strong support of a single system, to not emphasizing this issue and indeed musing about bringing in an "open and inclusive space" in each school for children to practice *their* faith at lunch, et cetera as is done in our Universities apparently.

edmundoconnor

Walking past the PC campaign office on this evening (c. 5 p.m.), I noticed the place dark, and with no-one apparently around. I haven't noticed much activity of any sort around there. I know that the PCers are almost certainly using a central phone bank, but even people doing canvassing need somewhere local to get their literature and pick-up/drop off their poll sheets. Are the PCers just putting a good face on it, and basically resigned to not contending for the seat? The NDP is on course for a 2nd place finish, if not better, in that case.

Full disclosure: I volunteer with the NDP campaign.

madmax

Clever or Scared

 

Quote:

Determined not to lose the Feb. 4 Toronto Centre by-election at a delicate time for Premier Dalton McGuinty's government, Ontario Liberals put a full-court press on the riding Saturday with more than 200 party troops in town for a convention.

The meeting of the party's provincial council had originally been planned for McGuinty's hometown of Ottawa. However, it was moved to a Toronto hotel after the by-election was called following the resignation of MPP George Smitherman, who is running for mayor

 

Quote:

The NDP is hoping its candidate - street nurse and prominent social housing advocate Cathy Crowe - can win the economically diverse riding in the same way Cheri DiNovo took Parkdale-High Park for the New Democrats following the resignation of Liberal Gerard Kennedy a few years ago.

"It's the only reason I'm running," Crowe told the Star. "It's not a suicide mission for me."

 

While reference was made regarding the Liberals neck and neck with the PCs provincially, the Star didn't get a quote from the PC candidate.

 

Which means that the Liberals are taking the NDP challenge seriously.

madmax

On the side of Angels

"

For Crowe's NDP, it is actually the sort of fight they most relish. With this candidate, New Democrats almost literally see themselves working on the side of angels.

And the battles they most enjoy have always been - like many lived on Parliament St. - steeply uphill."

adma

Even so, I don't know if I can see Pam Taylor *that* marginalized--she's got token profile from her previous run and, well, Rosedale is Rosedale.  15-20% feels just about bottom to me.  Then again, the less pugnacious Glen Murray probably "sells" better in Rosedale than Smitherman...

edmundoconnor

If the PCs poll around 25%, and the NDP stays strong to the finish (around 32-35% or better), then Glen Murray should start sweating on the night of February 4. It wouldn't be impossible for the Green vote to be larger than the ultimate margin of victory. Recriminations might well be in the air, as Greens are more likely to sway lukewarm Liberals than lukewarm Tories.

social democrat

At the all candidates meeting last night at the 519 community centre, Cathy Crowe seemed much less passionate and issues-focussed than Glenn or Pamela.

But she is doing well. Many NDP deserters who voted for Bob Rae federally are now returning, eg Tariq Fatah who has taken an NDP sign and made a donation. She'll likely beat Shapcott's numbers.

adma

One thing I find odd is that Crowe's signs are using an orange/blue scheme, rather than the usual orange/green...

Sunday Hat

social democrat wrote:

At the all candidates meeting last night at the 519 community centre, Cathy Crowe seemed much less passionate and issues-focussed than Glenn or Pamela.

But she is doing well. Many NDP deserters who voted for Bob Rae federally are now returning, eg Tariq Fatah who has taken an NDP sign and made a donation. She'll likely beat Shapcott's numbers.

I watched the same debate online. Call me partisan but Murray came off as a blowhard and Cathy came off as a genuine person. Maybe that means she wasn't "issues focussed". She clearly isn't a typical politician.

I think she'll do better than Michael Shapcott. She may do better than Glen Murray.

Maysie Maysie's picture

I saw Cathy at the rally on Saturday.

She's got my vote, and I hope she does well in the polls. But unless the Liberals really fuck up, Murray will take the seat. This is serious Liberal land here in TC.

edmundoconnor

Cathy gets a big mention in this Star story. Glen Murray plays very much second fiddle (he's first mentioned in the 15th paragraph, waaaay past the meat of the article). The other main contenders are relegated to the end of the article.

I know it's easy to read the tea leaves from one article, but it does seem like the Star thinks Cathy has a real chance of an upset here. Or at least, making Murray sweat for his win.

The fact that it's an issue right up her street doesn't hurt. I'd count this as a nice little PR victory.

StarSuburb

The Liberal dynamics during this by-election are interesting. Obviously they want Murray to win, but I dont think they would mind Crowe doing well, if the NDP leapfrogged over the PC's into second place, that's a big blow to the Hudak PC's credability in urban politics.

Sunday Hat

St Mike's again. Andrea Horwath as well.

Lord Palmerston

I see that former ONDP candidate Gene Lara has endorsed Murray.  I worked a bit on that campaign and I found her to be a very weak candidate.

social democrat

I think endorse is too strong a word. Gene Lara's picture is on the TC federal Green Party and TC federal Conservative Party websites, plus she spoke recently at an TCNDP meeting.  The Liberals are just now getting their Gene Lara photo op. I would say Gene is photogenically indiscriminate.

edmundoconnor

I should have guessed this was coming – a googly-eyed profile of Glen Murray appears in the Star. I hope someone caught the reporter when they swooned.

edmundoconnor

social democrat wrote:

I would say Gene is photogenically indiscriminate.

How delicately put.

Does anyone know if any Liberal (or PC) MPPs have been knocking on doors during the campaign? Although given the past histories of some those folk, they might have the opposite effect to that intended.

adma

StarSuburb wrote:

The Liberal dynamics during this by-election are interesting. Obviously they want Murray to win, but I dont think they would mind Crowe doing well, if the NDP leapfrogged over the PC's into second place, that's a big blow to the Hudak PC's credability in urban politics.

Given how tightly bunched NDP and PC have been in this seat over recent elections, it wouldn't be much effort to leapfrog.

I'm suspecting the PCs will be satisfied to hold a solid base, maybe 25% if they're lucky.  But as I've suggested, Glen Murray's the kind of Grit who'd be more attractive to the Rosedale red-Tory big-shot class than Smitherman was...

StarSuburb

The Liberals I would say also have the best online organization as well. While Crowe's website is good, Murray has almost daily updates, the website is also available in French, and has advance poll info in multiple languages. Crowe's is definately nothing to scoff at, but can anyone tell me why a link to her website is nowhere to be found on the ONDP website?

Pam Taylor's website has a feed of PC central website updates with no focus on local issues, the basic elections ontario blurb about the riding, a handful of photos, and not much else.

edmundoconnor

I think Murray's campaign is trying to hit those with enough time on their hands to not only check his website out, but on a daily basis. Whereas Crowe's is there to give the one-stop lowdown on the candidate. I think this is due to the respective campaigns' focii: Murray is going after Rosedalers and new-media types, whereas Crowe is going after people for whom net access is a luxury. After all, a fancy website may look great, but might look terrible on a two/three-year-old machine. Such as those used by Toronto Public Libraries.

Taylor – well, I don't know quite what her campaign is doing. Maybe PC voters get 'the help' to check the website? In any case, I doubt that the local PC riding association has any meaningful role in the website, or anywhere else.

A link from the ONDP website is a screw-up, but the campaign is driving voters towards Crowe's website directly, so I don't know if that's really significant. Also, cathycrowe.ca is pretty easy to remember.

Doug

I haven't even gotten literature from Pamela Taylor yet. Granted, I'm not in a target Tory poll but I did get some last time.

Stockholm

Just one little comment on Cathy Crowe's campaign. I think she's a wonderful candidate and i have made a donation to her campaign - but I notice one thing on her website that is conspicuous by its absence. Toronto Centre is the "gayest" riding in Ontario and probably in all of Canada and yet there is not one single solitary word about any gay issues on her site and none of the people she lists as "endorsers" are people with any background in gay activism or are even (as far as i know) gay or lesbian themselves.

I realize that a certain segment of the LGBTQ community may be backing Glen Murray for obvious reasons - but surely there are some activists who are New Democrats or who Cathy Crowe must have interacted with on HIV/AIDS related issues etc...

 

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

edmundoconnor wrote:
I should have guessed this was coming – a googly-eyed profile of Glen Murray appears in the Star. I hope someone caught the reporter when they swooned.

That was such a puff piece that it wouldn't fit on my screen.

856 words on Glen Murray. The other candidates, from Cathy Crowe to John Turmel, rate only a mention on a list.

This piece is also reposted on CBC.ca, with attribution to The Canadian Press.

Maybe Murray is polling badly and the Star thought he needed a little help.

Sunday Hat

Ouch

Former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray says he's all about Toronto. What's your reaction?

Good grief! 12%
results bar

Good luck! 25%
results bar

Good riddance! 61%
results bar

skdadl

I've been away (and then I'm slow on electoral politics anyway), so it's a wonderful surprise to me to hear that Cathy Crowe is running. God, if I were there, I would work for her. She is fabulous!

 

To all of you who are doing the work on the ground -- it can be done in that riding, yes it can, even in blinkin' Rosedale. Have a good week; think positive; and good luck.

Lord Palmerston

Rosedale is only a tiny percentage of the riding anyway.

Sunday Hat
Lord Palmerston

It sounds like Adam Vaughan is supporting Cathy Crowe, according to her FB page

Quote:
"...had a great time talking to voters this morning, with City Councillor Adam Vaughan! We were outside Sherbourne Station and it was FREEZING. Looking forward to warmer weather next week! I'm spending a lot of time outdoors these days."

edmundoconnor

I just have to say that Glen Murray (or his people) made the wrong call about the TVO debate. There is no upside to this decision. How can running away from a debate do a candidate any favours?

Taylor also doesn't come out of this with much credibility. Not that she had heaps to start with, anyway.

All this said, I don't think it'll have a measurable effect on the campaign.

Spoiler warning: Taylor is going to be in 3rd. And it won't even be close.

Pages

Topic locked