Toronto Council races part 3

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aka Mycroft
Toronto Council races part 3

So any predictions?

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aka Mycroft

Sandra Bussin seems to be in trouble. On the right, Cesar Palacio may be in trouble as well.

Stockholm

I hope Bussin wins just because she's one more vote on the left and "3M" running against her looks likely to be another Karen Stintz - but I think Bussin has really helped dig her own grave over the past few years and I met her once at a banquet a found her a bit cold and condescending.

Lord Palmerston

I can see Bussin going down - if there's an upset to an entrenched incumbent due to arrogance etc. I can see it happening to her.

The claim that Mihevc is vulnerable, however, seems absurd.

aka Mycroft

I said Palacio is vulnerable, not Mihevc. Placio almost lost last time and is facing what looks like a strong campaign by Jonah Schein. Morevoer, Tony Letra is also running a strong campaign, stronger than Fred Dominelli's in 2006, and is likely to Liberal votes away from Palacio (who is trying to staunch this by adding "Liberal" to some of his signs - very unusual in a municipal election).

Mihevc isn't facing any strong competition.

aka Mycroft

The Anybody But Ford sentiment could help Bussin scrape through (along with the fact that her opposition is still divided despite Gladstone's manouvre)

 

JeffWells

Stockholm wrote:
I think Bussin has really helped dig her own grave over the past few years and I met her once at a banquet a found her a bit cold and condescending.

Yes, I wouldn't exactly describe her as personable. But as well as I can attest she's been a responsive councillor and, more importantly, is seated squarely in council's anti-Ford camp.

And to my ears, much of the anti-Bussin hysteria on the right comes down to gender. I doubt her arrogance would be so infuriating to them, or even so apparent, if she were a he.

 

Sineed

I think Gord Perks is safe here in ward 14 (Parkdale High Park), though rival Ryan Hobson is rather well-funded, judging by all his large and prominent signage.  Apparently there's some "Anti-Gord Perks" buzz, probably because people are pissed off about the ongoing construction on Roncesvalles.  

I found an account of a debate here,

http://www.insidetoronto.com/news/local/article/873879--ward-14-debate-f...

edmundoconnor

From my gadding about in Ward 27, Wong-Tam is firmly leading the sign war, with Chan in second, and Dick in third. The first campaign signs I saw were Wong-Tam's (north of Bloor, no less).

kitest

i agree with edmund's formchat for ward 27. i'd be happy if joel won. sensible and least divisive candidate out of the contenders and quite open to working with communities around the ward.

edmundoconnor

I've found it a bit of a puzzle why Joel didn't have another go at TDSB Trustee, especially since he did so well last time (beating the incumbent in Ward 28). Not that I'm complaining.

ByronToronto

I must say I find it a little peculiar that the word "NDP" does not show up anywhere on Wong-Tam's endorsement page even though many of her supporters are prominent NDPers.  Labour Council and CUPE were only added after the media raised the omission. 

Joel Dick has "Susan Wallace, Federal NDP Candidate for Toronto Centre" prominently featured, plus a few other NDP activists listed.

 

 

Stockholm

I notice that her website avoids mentioning ANY party names (i.e. she is endorsed by Cathy Crowe, but it doesn't mention that she was an NDP candidate provincially). There are people endorsing her who are Liberals and Conservatives as well and that isn't mentioned. But in the end who cares? Behind the scenes, the NDP brass are supporting her, but they know that to win in that ward you need to build a coalition that crosses party lines.

The only thing I noted is that she mentions that Sachin Aggarwal is a former Deputy Chief of Staff to Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, but when she lists Bob Gallagher - he is listed as c-founder of Canadians for Equal Marriage - and not as "former Chief of Staff to NDP leader Jack Layton". Whatever....

Aristotleded24

aka Mycroft wrote:
On the right, Cesar Palacio may be in trouble as well.

Let's hope, I know people who live in that ward.

Lord Palmerston

Did a walk in ward 19 today, in the eastern part.  Layton was clearly in the lead in signs, probably 2-1 (at least) ahead of McCormick.  A few signs for Karen Sun, one for perennial candidate George Sawision, nothing for anyone else.

1weasel

Looks like Sean McCormick has Jim Likourezos nipping into his base, at least if you go by signs in the northwest corner of Ward 19.  Likourezos is campaigning to the right of McCormick and has been playing up the Rob Ford taliking points.  In this corner it looks like Jim is eroding Sean's support more than Karen Sun is affecting Mike Layton's chances.  Personally, I'd rather have Karen Sun being the only progressive running but that's not the situation we/ve got.

Cueball Cueball's picture

It seems the NDP organization has been working hard to exploit Joe Pantalone's move to the Mayors's race and is working hard to get Jack Layton's son elected there. Mike Layton signs everywhere.

Lord Palmerston

I find it difficult to believe that Layton Jr. has more support in Ward 19 than Joe does.

aka Mycroft

I haven't seen many signs from any of the mayoral campaigns, nor literature for that matter. Going by signs alone it would appear that Ken Chan has tonnes more support in Toronto Centre than George Smitherman who represented the area for a decade. I suspect signs in the mayoral campaign aren't very indicitave of anything except the fact that no mayoral campaign has enough volunteers (or money) to give any one ward the same coverage as a leading council candidate (perhaps Rob Ford in Etobicoke North is an exception - I haven't driven through their so I don't know).

I seem to recall that in 2003 as well council signs outnumbered mayoral signs by a signficant number though I think Miller was helped by the fact that several council candidates had their campaigns distributing his signs and lit as well. Looking through the Inside Toronto website's interviews with candidates I'm struck by how few council candidates are endorsing anyone for mayor so I suspect no mayoral candidate in this election is benefitting very much from organisational support from council candidates. (Ford has a few proxies supporting him but they seem pretty weak organizationally and aren't giving Ford much bounce if Wendell Brereton in ward 6 and Ron Singer in ward 15 are any indication.

Lord Palmerston

How is Kristyn Wong-Tam's signage would you say?

aka Mycroft

She's dominating Church Street, which isn't surprising since she owns a business there. Haven't been through enough residential areas to tell how things are going among actual voters. Ken Chan has a lot of signs on Granby Street but I doubt that street is demographically a representative sample of the ward. (It was on Granby that I saw about 15 Chan signs and 1 Smitherman sign). I've only seen about 4 Smiterhman signs on houses throughout the city and perhaps 6 Pantalone signs and 4 or 5 Fords.)

Lord Palmerston
edmundoconnor

Sign that Kristyn is considered a potential winner: she is mentioned, by name, in Simon Wookey's campaign literature. You never mention the opponent's name unless you consider them a real threat, and that it will do you more good than harm. As this election's shown, it's better to be notorious than unknown.

Stockholm

I was riding my bike around the east end this afternoon and just wanted to report what I saw in terms of signage (FWIW). Biking through Toronto-Danforth I see more Paula Fletcher signs than anything else though there are a fair number of signs for the rightist Liz White who is running against her. Then I crossed into the southern part of Beaches-East York and i have to say that given all the bad press Sandra Bussing gets - she sure has a TON of signs everywhere, followed by MacMahon. What was really notable though was that there was actually a fair number of Ford for Mayor lawn signs in the east - usually (but not always) on the same lawn that had a Liz White or a MacMahon for city council sign (surprise surprise). Of course you see some odd anomalies like a house with a gigantic Pantalone for Mayor sign as well as a sign for MacMahon for city council or a house that is supporting Ford for Mayor and Bussin for city council. But what really struck me was the total absence of any signage for Smitherman. I honestly saw more signs for Pantalone than I did for Smitherman ( and I literally saw ONE Smitherman sign).

Sineed

Stockholm wrote:

I honestly saw more signs for Pantalone than I did for Smitherman ( and I literally saw ONE Smitherman sign).

I wish that were true here in the west end - Rob Ford and Smitherman signs much in evidence, Pantalone, not so much.

I don't know how much you can go by signage - Rob Ford's people have been notoriously aggressive with the signs.  And here in Parkdale-High Park, it's likely that Gord Perks will keep his job, but one of the other 9 people running, a guy named Ryan Hobson, seems to be very well-funded.  He has a storefront on Dundas, and lots of large signs all over.

I'm thinking, maybe in federal elections, you can more readily judge what may happen by the relative prominence of different candidates' signs.  But here at the municipal level, it's a lot easier for a couple of motivated people to go door to door and get their placards out there over the relatively tiny territory.

Lord Palmerston

Smitherman's starting to get his signs up in Trinity-Spadina.  Way behind Joe though.

Lord Palmerston

Here are the Star's council endorsements, [url=http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/876714--star-choices-f... 1 to 21[/url]

Not too bad.  They endorse Jonah Schein in Ward 17 and Karen Sun in Ward 19 (which they describe as a Layton/Sun race and don't mention McCormack).

Stockholm

All things being equal, the Star will always back whoever the Liberal party brass tells them to endorse. I'm sure Smitherman's people fax a list of who they want the Star to endorce and presto.

I notice that in ward 18 - they seem to dismiss Kevin Beaulieu for having worked at city hall for Adam Giambrone, but then they make it sound as if Ana Bailao was some outsider rags to riches former charwoman - no mention that she was EA to Mario Silva and is a total Liberal Party insider....

Olly

It's Liz West in Fletcher's riding, not White. City TV entertainment reporter...

JeffWells

The purposefully vague politics of Ward 32's putative Bussin-killer keep coming into focus:

 

Tory campaigns for activist looking to upset Bussin

Influential radio host John Tory appeared on a campaign trail on Saturday, throwing his support behind Ward 32 candidate Mary-Margaret McMahon in the hopes of unseating incumbent Sandra Bussin.

...

Tory, the former leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives who flirted with the idea of running for mayor, called McMahon a "breath of fresh air" before spending much of the morning canvassing the ward with the local community activist.

 

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101016/tory-bussin-1010...

A political

McMahon is likely more progressive than Bussin the silver spoon socialist ever was.  It is lttle wonder Tory is out campaigning with her....after Bussin called him a three time loser.  This is a political thing with him and Mahon,,it is a personal thing with him and Bussin....

On another note I spent part of Saturday and Sunday driving around the east end and Ford is signed way better that Smitherman and Pantalone.  It the area I live in it is funny to see so many Davis and Ford signs on the same lawn or frankly just Ford on many of them.

Stockholm

McMahon is a mysetry. Her campaign is 100% a personal negaqtive campaign against Sandra Bussin, she tells us NOTHING about what she actually stands for. Maybe she is just as progressive as Bussin - but minus the controversies - she did after all get endorsed by Heather Mallick, but then again she might be another Karen Stitz style rightist - given that people like John Tory and Warren Kinsella are backing her and just about every house with a Rob Ford sign for mahyor has a Mcmahon sign for council.

Does anyone have the slightest idea what her politics actually are?? Don't we have a right to know?

A political

I remember reading a star story in the winter about her starting farmers markets etc.  I will  see if I can find it. 

A political
Stockholm

Are we supposed to assume that anyone involved in farmers markets HAS to be some quaint progressive/green type?? Foi all I know, Karen Stintz shops at Whole Foods and is a vegetarian. The Sean McCormick rightwing crackpot running in Ward 19 brags about founding an alternative music festival...big deal.

A political

Stockholm, I am not suggesting you assume anything..I am suggesting I read a few things about her and knowing Bussin as well as I do for the past 20 years I believe McMahon is surely more progressive the Bussin who really isn't!  She is a silver spooned socialist if there ever was one.

edmundoconnor

Stockholm wrote:

All things being equal, the Star will always back whoever the Liberal party brass tells them to endorse. I'm sure Smitherman's people fax a list of who they want the Star to endorce and presto.

So we can expect Ken Chan to be endorsed in Ward 27, then.

JeffWells

A political wrote:

... I am suggesting I read a few things about her and knowing Bussin as well as I do for the past 20 years I believe McMahon is surely more progressive the Bussin who really isn't!  She is a silver spooned socialist if there ever was one.

 

I posted the following in Part 2 of the council races discussion re McMahon:

 

Quote:

5. Who do you plan to support for mayor?
Declaring support for a mayoralty candidate is not part of my campaign platform. Who can create the needed change in Ward 32 and at City Hall? I CAN!

http://www.insidetorontovotes.ca/wards/east-york-beach/ward-32-beaches-e...

 

For a self-portrayed heroic community organizer, her top priorities seem oddly aligned with Ford's:

 

1. What key issues define your campaign platform?

Top 5 ways I can create change:

Budget Responsibility: Greater responsibility with local contracts, development, tendering processes, budget plans, council salaries and expenses.

Local Businesses: Win-win solutions to support local businesses; less bureaucracy, more business-community integration and less political pressure.

 

I know where Bussin lines up on council, and I want that confidence in a councillor whoever wins the mayoralty. McMahon's statements - and even, as someone pointed out, the Canadian Alliance-like livery of her signage - strongly suggest to me she's a conservative Trojan Horse.

Thanks for the farmer's market, but I'm sticking with Bussin.

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:

All things being equal, the Star will always back whoever the Liberal party brass tells them to endorse. I'm sure Smitherman's people fax a list of who they want the Star to endorce and presto.

I notice that in ward 18 - they seem to dismiss Kevin Beaulieu for having worked at city hall for Adam Giambrone, but then they make it sound as if Ana Bailao was some outsider rags to riches former charwoman - no mention that she was EA to Mario Silva and is a total Liberal Party insider....

I'm pretty sure Smitherman's people are backing McCormack, not Karen Sun.

And if Jonah Schein is elected he will almost certainly the most left-wing person on council.

Lord Palmerston

Another impressive endorsement for Karen Sun:

Quote:
Karen’s leadership in the Colour of Poverty Campaign has demonstrated her deep understanding, empathy and commitment to issues of race, class and social exclusion. As councillor, I know Karen will work hard to build a more inclusive and equitable city.

Grace-Edward Galabuzi

Anti-poverty activist and author, board member of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, the Atkinson Charitable Foundation Board, and the Stephen Lewis Foundation.


A political

[/I know where Bussin lines up on council,

  To quote Rob Ford at the head of the line for the Gravy Train! 

Stockholm

"I'm pretty sure Smitherman's people are backing McCormack, not Karen Sun."

The people at the Star aren't stupid. They know its a close race in ward 19 between Layton and McCormick - so they think that if they can throw a few votes to Karen Sun, it might help McCormick come up the middle.

Sineed

Rob Ford signage anecdote: my husband was out and about last night and saw a "Rob Ford" sign on a fence in front of bank.  So last night he called the bank's manager and said, "Are you really endorsing Rob Ford?"  The manager told him no, and arranged for the sign's removal.

JeffWells

A political wrote:

To quote Rob Ford at the head of the line for the Gravy Train! 

 

Quoting Ford may not be the soundest tactic to persuade me of McMahon's progressive bona fides.

Olly

No, but every other anecdote that comes out of Rob Ford's mouth about how bad city hall is involves Sandra Bussin. How much more ammo to we want to give the right?

JeffWells

Ammunition? If we sacrifice a progressive councillor because we're scared of Ford's mouth then we've shot ourselves in the head.

A political

 

Quoting Ford may not be the soundest tactic to persuade me of McMahon's progressive bona fides.

Like 60 % of those of in Toronto I am sick and tired of Rob Ford and his Gravy Train, but in Bussin's case it applies.  Frankly progressive or not I can't stand her santimonious attitude.  Looking forward to seeing the back-end of her.