Toronto election predictions

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aka Mycroft
Toronto election predictions

Mayor - Rob Ford

Ward 1 - Suzan Hall

Ward 2 - Doug Ford

Ward 3 - Doug Holyday

Ward 4 - Gloria Lindsay Luby

Ward 5 - Peter Milczyn

Ward 6 - Mark Grimes

Ward 7 - Giorgio Mammoliti

Ward 8 - Anthony Peruzza

Ward 9 - Maria Augimeri

Ward 10 - Brian Shifman

Ward 11 - Frances Nunziata

Ward 12 - Frank Di Giorgio

Ward 13 - Bill Saundercook

Ward 14 - Gord Perks

Ward 15 - Josh Colle

Ward 16 - Karen Stintz

Ward 17 - Jonah Schein

Ward 18 - Ana Bailao

Ward 19 - Mike Layton

Ward 20 - Adam Vaughan

Ward 21 - Joe Mihevc

Ward 22 - Josh Matlow

Ward 23 - John Filion

Ward 24 - David Shiner

Ward 25 - Cliff Jenkins

Ward 26 - Mohammed Dhanani

Ward 27 - Kristyn Wong-Tam

Ward 28 - Pam McConnell

Ward 29 - Mary Fragedakis

Ward 30 - Paula Fletcher

Ward 31 - Janet Davis

Ward 32 - Mary Margaret McMahon

Ward 33 - Shelley Carroll

Ward 34 - Denzil Minnan-Wong

Ward 35 - Adrian Heaps

Ward 36 - Robert Spencer

Ward 37 - Michael Thompson

Ward 38 - Glenn De Baeremaeker

Ward 39 - Michael Del Grande

Ward 40 - Norm Kelly

Ward 41 - Chin Lee

Ward 42 - Neethan Shan

Ward 43 - Paul Ainisle

Ward 44 - Diana Hall

A political

I think you are right with on exception>  Ward 29  Jennifer Wood

Lord Palmerston

Here's mine:

Ward 1 - Susan Hall

Ward 2 - Doug Ford

Ward 3 - Doug Holyday

Ward 4 - Gloria Lindsay-Luby

Ward 5 - Peter Milczyn

Ward 6 - Mark Grimes

Ward 7 - George Mammoliti

Ward 8 - Anthony Perruzza

Ward 9 - Maria Augimeri

Ward 10 - Brian Shifman

Ward 11 - Frances Nunziata

Ward 12 - Frank Di Giorgio

Ward 13 - Bill Saundercook

Ward 14 - Gord Perks

Ward 15 - Josh Colle

Ward 16 - Karen Stintz

Ward 17 - Cesar Palacio

Ward 18 - Ana Bailao

Ward 19 - Mike Layton

Ward 20 - Adam Vaughan

Ward 21 - Joe Mihevc

Ward 22 - Josh Matlow

Ward 23 - John Filion

Ward 24 - David Shiner

Ward 25 - Cliff Jenkins

Ward 26 - Mohammed Dhanani

Ward 27 - Kristyn Wong-Tam

Ward 28 - Pam McConnell

Ward 29 - Mary Fragedakis

Ward 30 - Paula Fletcher

Ward 31 - Janet Davis

Ward 32 - Sandra Bussin

Ward 33 - Shelley Carroll

Ward 34 - Denzil Minnan-Wong

Ward 35 - Adrian Heaps

Ward 36 - Robert Spencer

Ward 37 - Michael Thompson

Ward 38 - Glenn De Baeremaker

Ward 39 - Mike Del Grande

Ward 40 - Norm Kelly

Ward 41 - Chin Lee

Ward 42 - Neethan Shan

Ward 43 - Paul Ainslie

Ward 44 - Diana Hall

* Pretty similar to Mycroft's (how many races can we say are "competitive out of the 44 wards), though I'm probably giving more incumbent advantage.   I think 3M will come close against Sandra Bussin but come up short.  Rob Davis should give a stiff challenge to Josh Colle in ward 15.  And while I'm really hoping Jonah Schein wins, I'm giving the edge to Palacio because Schein lacks Bravo's ability to campaign in Spanish and Portuguese.

Now another question - who wants to predict the plurality vote for mayor by ward?

Stockholm

I think some of you are being a bit overly optimistic about how well centre-left/left candidates will do overall. Here is my prediction:

 

Here's mine:

Ward 1 - Susan Hall

Ward 2 - Doug Ford

Ward 3 - Doug Holyday

Ward 4 - John Campbell (to beat Gloria Lindsay-Luby)

Ward 5 - Peter Milczyn

Ward 6 - Mark Grimes

Ward 7 - George Mammoliti

Ward 8 - Anthony Perruzza

Ward 9 - Maria Augimeri

Ward 10 - Nancy Oomen (Shifman sounds way better - but I think this woman has all the rightwing notables backing her)

Ward 11 - Frances Nunziata

Ward 12 - Frank Di Giorgio

Ward 13 - Bill Saundercook

Ward 14 - Gord Perks

Ward 15 - Rob Davis (I wish for Colle but i have a feeling the Ford suburban wave will carry in some flotsam like Davis)

Ward 16 - Karen Stintz

Ward 17 - Cesar Palacio

Ward 18 - Kevin Beaulieu (I think he has a better chance than Schein in ward 17)

Ward 19 - Mike Layton

Ward 20 - Adam Vaughan

Ward 21 - Joe Mihevc

Ward 22 - Josh Matlow

Ward 23 - John Filion

Ward 24 - David Shiner

Ward 25 - Jaye Robinson (she lost to Jenkins by 80 votes in '03 and she is a Shelley Carrol style left-liberal)

Ward 26 - Mohammed Dhanani

Ward 27 - Kevin Chan (I hope I'm wrong)

Ward 28 - Pam McConnell

Ward 29 - Mary Fragedakis

Ward 30 - Paula Fletcher

Ward 31 - Janet Davis

Ward 32 - 3M (I think Bussin won't survive all the bad publicity)

Ward 33 - Shelley Carroll

Ward 34 - Denzil Minnan-Wong

Ward 35 - Michele Berardinetti

Ward 36 - Gary Crawford

Ward 37 - Michael Thompson

Ward 38 - Glenn De Baeremaker

Ward 39 - Mike Del Grande

Ward 40 - Norm Kelly

Ward 41 - Chin Lee

Ward 42 - Neethan Shan

Ward 43 - Paul Ainslie

Ward 44 - Diana Hall

 

For the mayoralty I predict that the popular vote will be: Smitherman 42%, Ford 40%, Pantalone 16% and 2% will go to others.

Cueball Cueball's picture

I am having a hard time deciding who I want to win the mayoralty race, if not Pantalone. Smitherman or Ford?

Ford would obviously be better from a practical point of view, since the worse case scenario would be having a lame-duck Ford face an intransigent council, or a conciliatory Ford cobbling together a less radical agenda for governance. In the latter case we would looking at a trimmed down plan more or less along the lines of what Smitherman is proposing.

However, if Joey's vote collapses completely, the we have real problems because we will have a supercharged Smitherman counting his votes and Ford's votes as an all out endorsement for Smitherman's fiscal conservative agenda. That is obviously the worse case scenario from a practical stanpoint.

But that is just practical. Emotionally I am hoping that Smitherman does get in, leaving McConnell, Mihvc and Vaughan to tangle with Smitherman on the executive. I really don't count much on Mihvc's political chances in this scenario, because he seems like something of a decent guy and not nearly clever enough to outwit Smitherman who will no doubt leave Mihvc carrying can for the TTC strike Smitherman will engineer for 2011, when Mihvc is TTC chair.

Mihvc quits politics in 2014?

Vaughan might be a survivor here, since he may actually be smart enough to handle Smitherman's cagey antics.

But on this point, I am really surprised by Adam's endorsement for Smitherman, since it would pay for Adam to be in opposition in the next council, and not be one of the standard bearers of destruction. In opposition he can be standard bearer for the left against Ford, and this might give him the lime light he needs if he truly is considering running for Mayor in 2014. In that light, strategically, for Vaughan, it might have made more sense for him to throw his weight behind Joe and help keep Joe's vote afloat, and kill Smitherman, and sit in the opposition, against his arch-enemy Robert Ford.

Also, Joe is also a good friend to have, and friends are going to be useful in the upcoming council that will be very unfriendly one way or the other.

 

edmundoconnor

Re: Chan in Ward 27 – he might not have the Rosedale vote quite as locked up as he wants it to be. Meynell could be a spoiler candidate there. I think Wong-Tam has enough support to push herself over the finish line. I've seen more signs for her in more places than anyone else. She's not always had the most signs in a given area, but she's always been there.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think there is interesting stuff going on in the TDSB races. Sheila Ward has been running a very, very limp campaign in the face of an active and energetic one from Chris Moise, and is ready to be toppled (disclosure: I'm working for Moise). Plus, the timing of this lawsuit regarding three other trustees seems awfully coincidental, doesn't it?

Sineed

Lord Palmerston has a nice post here:

http://www.rabble.ca/comment/1188112/Why-Left-should-back

Describing how the left can fight back against the right-wing government we will inevitably have, whether it's Ford or Smitherman.

And I believe it will be Smitherman.  It's been said before, but bears repeating: these polls that put Ford and Smitherman neck-and-neck are phone polls of largely home-owners, who are mostly folks > 50 years old.  I believe the anti-Ford forces have largely not been polled, and are a juggernaut that will put Smitherman well out front.  People are thinking, we still haven't lived down the last ridiculous mayor we had; the guy who envisioned himself boiling in African cooking pots and called in the military to clear our snow.  We can't have this racist wife-beating alcoholic who abuses random strangers at sporting events.

So lots of people will hold their noses and vote Slitherman.  Like I said on FB, if you vote Pantalone (and I will), you won't have to hold your nose.  But we need to face it: Pantalone isn't going to pull a come-from-behind surprise victory.  Pantalone is a competent civil servant who has served this city well for decades, and is far and away the best choice of the 3 front-runners, but he's not a brilliant, vibrant young Muslim man brimming with energy and ideas that gets people excited about what our city could be.

Instead it's going to be the arrogant and nasty slaphead who at the same time is glib and clever enough to convince enough people he wasn't a disaster in his previous political roles, whether it was giving advice to Barbara Hall that caused her campaign to tank, or wasting millions of dollars of taxpayers' money as the Minister of Health.

Maybe I'll just move to Calgary.

Stockholm

Sineed wrote:

 

And I believe it will be Smitherman.  It's been said before, but bears repeating: these polls that put Ford and Smitherman neck-and-neck are phone polls of largely home-owners, who are mostly folks > 50 years old.

The Angus Reid poll is online and has lots of young people in it and all the polling companies weight their results to reflect the demographic makeup of the city!

Sineed

On-line polls are even worse; they get totally freeped.

Cueball Cueball's picture

Sineed wrote:

And I believe it will be Smitherman.  It's been said before, but bears repeating: these polls that put Ford and Smitherman neck-and-neck are phone polls of largely home-owners, who are mostly folks > 50 years old.  I believe the anti-Ford forces have largely not been polled, and are a juggernaut that will put Smitherman well out front.  People are thinking, we still haven't lived down the last ridiculous mayor we had; the guy who envisioned himself boiling in African cooking pots and called in the military to clear our snow.  We can't have this racist wife-beating alcoholic who abuses random strangers at sporting events.

Probably the best poll taken was the Ekos poll which used entirely different system. Robocalls with a digitized response system, responding to a recorded message, one that called cell phones as well.

Quote:
A new Ekos poll of 500 Torontonians, conducted over an abnormally long nine-day time period, puts the Etobicoke councillor ahead by about 8 percentage points - with 43.9 per cent compared with George Smitherman's 35.6. Joe Pantalone garnered 15 per cent.

Interestingly immigrants were more likely to back Ford over Smitherman despite all his talk about "diversity". It may be that empty crap about "diversity" turns many non-European Canadians off.

Globe

That feels right to me. I think Ford is going to come out on top, and the only thing that can save Smitherman is the Pantalone vote collapsing, which I don't think it will. If anything I think it may go as high as 17 or 18%.

aka Mycroft

Actually the "unusually long" polling period puts the accuracy of that Ekos' poll into question since other polls suggest the race tightened significantly during that same period ie polls taken over the last three days of the Ekos window have shown Smitherman in the leade while polls taken at the beginning show Ford was still ahead. Since Ekos' polling is stretched out it's not very effective as a "snapshot". (In photographic terms - the poll is overexposed)

Lord Palmerston

Sineed wrote:

Lord Palmerston has a nice post here:

 

">http://www.rabble.ca/comment/1188112/Why-Left-should-back

Thanks, but to give credit where credit is due that piece was written by Rich Whyman.

Sineed

*shrugs*

You guys could be right - one thing I'm seeing (in RL and on FB; not so scientific, I know), the polls are scaring folks into voting for Smitherman.

As it stands today, it's a rapidly evolving situation.  I'm not sure how well, like aka Mycroft suggests, polls represent what's going to happen tomorrow.

See you in the aftermath.

Sineed

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Thanks, but to give credit where credit is due that piece was written by Rich Whyman.

Gracious as always, LP

aka Mycroft

I made my Ford prediction before I realised the problems with Ekos' methodology so now I'm not sure. At the very least the poll should be considered older than other polls that showed Smitherman ahead even though those polls were released before the Ekos poll. 

Lord Palmerston

edmundoconnor wrote:

Re: Chan in Ward 27 – he might not have the Rosedale vote quite as locked up as he wants it to be.

Simon Wookey is likely to get a lot of north of Bloor votes, which would hurt Chan.

Cueball Cueball's picture

aka Mycroft wrote:

Actually the "unusually long" polling period puts the accuracy of that Ekos' poll into question since other polls suggest the race tightened significantly during that same period ie polls taken over the last three days of the Ekos window have shown Smitherman in the leade while polls taken at the beginning show Ford was still ahead. Since Ekos' polling is stretched out it's not very effective as a "snapshot". (In photographic terms - the poll is overexposed)

That is true, but it is consistent with other polls with larger samples. What I have noticed is that it is the Ipsos Reid polls done by the Toronto Star consistently show Pantalone scoring in the very low teens, but that this number changes when another polling company is doing the poll. I greatly distrust the Ipsos Reid polling in this election for the reasons Sineed outlined, and the Ekos poll is consistent with the other polls not done by Ipsos Reid.

What is interesting about it is that it includes cell phones. Other indicators suggest the Pantalone would do well in this demographic, which is usually younger, internet savvy people. Why I bring up the internet is because even today, despite the polling Pantalone still has more Facebook friends than Smitherman -- I find that surprising. I thought George would do better than Pantalone in that crowd given the polling numbers.

That can by no means be turned into any kind of hard number, but it is still suggests to me that Pantalone's core support is probably a younger body of people who have cell phones as opposed to land lines.

adma

To use US prognostication terminology here...

Ward 1 - Likely Suzan Hall; unless Ford coattails are working into overdrive on Vince Crisanti's behalf

Ward 2 - Safe Doug "Boss" Ford

Ward 3 - Safe Doug Holyday (but in the event that he doesn't run again, I wouldn't be surprised if his replacement turned out to be leftish or DeBaeremakerish)

Ward 4 - Toss-Up camoflauged by its being sleepy E-Tory-Coke, or else its being beneath the macro-Rob-Ford radar, but I agree that it's a genuine John Campbell over GLLuby upset prospect.

Ward 5 - Likely Peter Milczyn

Ward 6 - Likely Mark Grimes

Ward 7 - Safe Giorgio "Gino Boys Like Ford" Mammoliti 

Ward 8 - Leans Anthony Perruzza (the Li Preti rematch is overrated, unless Smitherman's brother withdrew on Li Preti's behalf)

Ward 9 - Likely Maria Augimeri (unless gravy-train + propane-explosion backlash has a yet-undiscerned effect)

Ward 10 - Leans Nancy Oomen--something about Shifman seems too wishful-think, and w/this kind of slate he might end up further back in the pack than Rabblers might wish)

Ward 11 - Safe Frances "I Support Ford" Nunziata

Ward 12 - Likely Frank Di Giorgio (though it could verge on leaning, if any opponents are galvanizing enough)

Ward 13 - Likely Bill Saundercook (though Doucette could turn it into a lean--if only it weren't the post-Miller era)

Ward 14 - Safe Gord Perks (though Ryan Hobson's astroturfing as if it were otherwise)

Ward 15 - Toss-Up (I was preparing for "Lean Rob Davis", but Colle's proving quite resilient, and who knows if Singer's splitting the right-leaning vote)

Ward 16 - Safe Karen Stintz (wouldn't it be ironic if she were anything less--yet, she *could* be)

Ward 17 - Toss-Up (if Palacio could survive 2006, he can survive 2010--superficially; yet it depends on the effect Tony Letra, or even a Ford-ite like Ben Stirpe, has on the right-Liberal vote, so who knows if Schein by default)

Ward 18 - Lean Ana Bailao (at least, she looks to be nimbler than Beaulieu)

Ward 19 - Lean Mike Layton (though maybe that should be "Likely", with both Sun and McCormick underwhelming relative to their hype)

Ward 20 - Safe Adam Vaughan

Ward 21 - Likely Joe Mihevc  (well, that old Sun poll suggested Shimmy Posen within margin)

Ward 22 - Leans Josh Matlow

Ward 23 - Likely John Filion (though it could be a sleeper leaner)

Ward 24 - Safe David Shiner

Ward 25 - Leans Cliff Jenkins (Robinson's strong; but it's the more affluent/right-leaning of the DVW wards, and Jenkins has two stability-instilling terms to John Parker's one, so there's more of an "incumbent advantage" working here)

Ward 26 - Toss-Up (a rematch, but remember Alejandra Bravo in '06, forewarned is forearmed--though jury's out whether Parker's support of Ford does more harm than good)

Ward 27 - Toss-Up (still fundamentally Chan vs Wong-Tam; but from Meynell to Tindal and beyond, there are so many spoilers fogging up the issue--maybe more Meynell than Wookey, believe it or not)

Ward 28 - Safe Pam McConnell (nominal opposition + strategic Slithersupport)

Ward 29 - Toss-Up (I'd even extend Stockholm's warning against too much centre-left/left optimism here; don't underestimate the backlash against "NDP women candidates" spilling over from Bussin/Fletcher turf into the one E End ward they don't presently hold--and also, don't underestimate the lingering good faith relative to Jane Pitfield; in any event, consider that even Pitfield, for all her pitfalls, still might mark a shift left of Ootes)

Ward 30 - Leans Paula Fletcher (well, against an anti-Bussin mood, Fletcher's practically been asking for it and more--except that Liz West's machine isn't as tight as 3M's)

Ward 31 - Safe Janet Davis (funny how bombproof she is relative to her neighbours)

Ward 32 - Leans Mary-Margaret McMahon (well, at this point, a Bussin victory would be the bigger upset)

Ward 33 - Safe Shelley Carroll

Ward 34 - Safe Denzil Minnan-Wong

Ward 35 - Toss-Up (uglier, messier, and more uncertain than the Ward 8 and 26 rematches--though if it weren't such a disputed squeaker in '06, Heaps would be all but a shoe-in)

Ward 36 - Leans Gary Crawford (as with Ward 10, I agree with Stockholm about swallowing one's left-optimism here)

Ward 37 - Safe Michael Thompson (hey--he should have been the right-wing mayoral frontrunner in lieu of Ford)

Ward 38 - Safe Glenn De Baeremaker

Ward 39 - Safe Mike "New/Vizmin Canadians Like Ford" Del Grande

Ward 40 - Safe Norm Kelly

Ward 41 - Safe Chin Lee (though if I knew what was going on in his turf, I'd be tempted to downgrade to "Likely"--but I haven't heard any implication of electoral threat here)

Ward 42 - Lean Neethan Shan (I was willing to call it a toss-up; but I'll gamble otherwise)

Ward 43 - Likely Paul Ainslie

Ward 44 - Toss-Up (a less ugly/messy rematch quandary than Ward 35, to the point where I could even wind up hazarding a "lean Ron Moeser", just to be safe--or maybe it's too much nosebleed country this far east)

Sineed

adma wrote:
Ward 14 - Safe Gord Perks (though Ryan Hobson's astroturfing as if it were otherwise)

Didya notice how Ryan Hobson's signs look EXACTLY like Liberal signs, just lacking the Liberal logo?  I think even the font is the same.  To be fair, Ryan doesn't keep his Liberal alliances a secret, but given the obviously generous financing of his campaign, the blatant astroturfing rubs some of us the wrong way.

A worker from Ryan's campaign said to my husband, "Support Ryan Hobson because he's a friend of the arts."  When my husband told me about this, I said, "Yes, and Gord Perks is an enemy of the arts.  Gord Perks will crush the arts under the heel of his jack boot."

Srsly.

I mean, who's going to say anything anti-arts?  Even Rob Ford, troglodyte philistine that he is, could probably muster up some half-assed pro-arts statement that doesn't make him look an even bigger idiot.

After this election, we should get a thread going on party politics at the municipal level in Toronto, should we bring it in, yay or nay.

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Having been on the ground in Ward 22, I can tell you that it is far from a lock for Josh Matlow. I would give the lean to Chris Sellors, his opponent; however, it is close.

But as one indicator: Matlow's signs are all over, and twice as large, but Chris has the most signs on lawns, where they count. 

edmundoconnor

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Simon Wookey is likely to get a lot of north of Bloor votes, which would hurt Chan.

I'd agree with that. If Wookey and Meynell get traction north of Bloor, then Chan's chances will slip away. Dick is nowhere north of Bloor, and is relying on the south of Bloor to carry him home. Here's my guess of the order of Ward 27:

WINNER: Kristyn Wong-Tam
2nd: Joel Dick
3rd: Ken Chan
4th: Chris Tindal

I give Joel second because his organizing muscle has been strong south of Bloor, and I don't think Chan has the numbers in the north or anywhere else to make up for it.

Lord Palmerston

Then again, if Joel Dick is doing well south of Bloor that would be eating into KWT's vote.

Gary Shaul Gary Shaul's picture

I'm going to make a fairly safe prediction and suggest voting turnout will increase to 46% (from 40% in 2006).

I also predict that the mayor's race will result in a margin of 3-4% for the winner.

I'd like to predict that Pantalone will win as mayor but I can't. Published polls, their manipulation by candidates and some in the media and candidate drop-outs (why did they run in the first place or at least drop out before the deadline?) make it too difficult (athough still within the realm of possibilities since 40% of 45% is only 18% of all registered voters).

Sineed

We'll all have one consolation election night:

If Smitherman wins, at least it's not Ford.

If Ford wins, at least it's not Smitherman.

Stockholm

edmundoconnor wrote:

WINNER: Kristyn Wong-Tam
2nd: Joel Dick
3rd: Ken Chan
4th: Chris Tindal

I give Joel second because his organizing muscle has been strong south of Bloor, and I don't think Chan has the numbers in the north or anywhere else to make up for it.

I can't see Chan doing that badly. He is backed by Smitherman and rae - that means he has access to all the check marks of names of people who voted for Rae and Smitherman and for Glen Murray in the byelection, plus having been endorsed by Kyle Rae - he has all those contacts as well. I'm also inclined to agree that if Joel Dick does really well south of Bloor - it will be more at the expense of Kristen Wong-Tam than Ken Chan.

BTW: I'm surprised no one's mentioned all the smearing about Kristin over her alleged support for QAIA etc...a friend who lives in Rosedale got a leaflet from Wookey that was 100% devoted to the issue of Israal/Palestine and implied that that was the only issue in deciding who to vote for for Toronto city council - and all but implied that Kristen was some crazed Israel-hater etc...

A political

Ford                                              42%

smithermn                                   40%

Pantalone                                      13%

OTHER                                              4%

Bussin is gone

Jennifer Wood wins Ward 29

Matlow wins 22

Stockholm

Everything I've heard about Ward 29 is that its between Jane Pitfield and Mary Fragedakis - if Jennifer Wood becomes a factor - it will help split the rightwing vote and make Fragedakis a certain winner.

N.R.KISSED

I think Slitherman will win, ironically on the strength of strategic voters. I don't think that Ford's angry mob is going to make it to the polls.

Cueball Cueball's picture

That would be a good result. The Mihvec can become chair of the TTC and get Slitherized. Will he be psychologically intact at the end of 4 years of being deployed by Smitherman?

Stockholm

Terence Corcoran of the National Post warns that Smitherman is a "trojan horse" for the far left and that his policies are all identical to those of David Miller. If only it were so...

Stockholm

so much depends on turnout.

Ford seems to do extremely well among people over 60 and those over 60 tend to turnout in high numbers - Advantage Ford

Smitherman seems to be extremly well among people with university educations and people with the highest incomes and they also tend to run out in high numbers - Advantage Smitherman

edmundoconnor

Stockholm wrote:

Terence Corcoran of the National Post warns that Smitherman is a "trojan horse" for the far left and that his policies are all identical to those of David Miller. If only it were so...

Is this like how Rae was in the vanguard of socialist shock-troops in 1990?

edmundoconnor

The smearing of Kristyn seems not to have worked quite as her enemies hoped - a number of people, especially south of Bloor, support QUAIA and Kristyn's position on it. Plus, her enemies don't have a single figure to rally around. The most viable alternative, Chan, fudged the issue at the Fly debate, while the others, Wookey and Meynell, don't really have a hope south of Bloor. Splitting the vote renders it useless.

As I said, this is my *guess* only, not even approaching a prediction. I will make a prediction that the winner will be decided by hundreds, not thousands, of votes. The vote is split all over the place in the ward, and so makes any predictions here little better than a stab in the dark. I also predict both Chan and Wong-Tam will do well. I just don't know how well.

Dick is strong in some parts south of Bloor, but he is being hurt by not being considered a 'contender' (see this as an example of a trend). If his voice doesn't get heard by those who don't pay forensic attention to the race, then he doesn't factor into their considerations. Harsh, but true. I remember Xtra did a profile of the queer Ward 27 candidates, and virtually fell over themselves to love KWT. They and Torontoist have since endorsed KWT. Dick's name is not even mentioned in either endorsement.

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Just home a little while ago from doing some phoning for Mary Fragedakis in Ward 29.   The campaign is feeling pretty good about things but nobody is taking anything for granted.   The left candidate lost by 20 votes four years ago and the assumption is that this time it's going to be a squeaker as well.

takeitslowly

The voters turn out might favor Ford because its raining tomorrow and people with no cars might not be as inclined to get wet from walking to the polling booth..

meh.

Stockholm

Most people live within short walking distance of polling stations so I don't think the weather will be that much of a factor. One thing that does irritate me is the fact that in municipal elections, the polls open at 10am and close at 8pm - why can't they open an hour or two earlier like they do in provincial and federal election so that more people can vote first thing in the morning before they go to work?? If they want to encourage voter participation - make voting hours more user friendly!!!

Aristotleded24

aka Mycroft wrote:
Ward 17 - Jonah Schein

Here's hoping, fingers crossed.

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:

 

BTW: I'm surprised no one's mentioned all the smearing about Kristin over her alleged support for QAIA etc...a friend who lives in Rosedale got a leaflet from Wookey that was 100% devoted to the issue of Israal/Palestine and implied that that was the only issue in deciding who to vote for for Toronto city council - and all but implied that Kristen was some crazed Israel-hater etc...

Yup, there was a piece by Wookey about this in the National Post as well.

I believe there is a fair sized Jewish population in ward 27 - but it seems strange for someone to campaign on.

Olly

There are a lot more Wood signs in the 'hood, and she got her jump early. I was visited by her way back in April. I think she'll win too. Saw Pitfield campaigning at Broadview Station this morning (after I passed 13 stalled streetcars lined up in a row going south on Broadview Ave - wonder how many of those passengers will be Rob Ford voters tonight).

I think Ford will win with slightly more of a spread than polls are showing. George is being attacked left and right, and the latest Ministry of Health scandal wwill affect his credibility.

44% Ford

39% Smitherman.

 

Lord Palmerston

My prediction: Smitherman 42%, Ford 41%, Pantalone 14%.  SV carries the day for Smitherman.

And which mayoral candidate wins which ward:

Ward 1 - Ford

Ward 2 - Ford

Ward 3 - Ford

Ward 4 - Ford

Ward 5 - Ford

Ward 6 - Ford

Ward 7 - Ford

Ward 8 - Smitherman

Ward 9 - Ford

Ward 10 - Ford

Ward 11 - Smitherman

Ward 12 - Ford

Ward 13 - Smitherman

Ward 14 - Smitherman

Ward 15 - Smitherman

Ward 16 - Ford

Ward 17 - Smitherman

Ward 18 - Pantalone

Ward 19 - Pantalone

Ward 20 - Pantalone

Ward 21 - Smitherman

Ward 22 - Smitherman

Ward 23 - Ford

Ward 24 - Ford

Ward 25 - Ford

Ward 26 - Smitherman

Ward 27 - Smitherman

Ward 28 - Smitherman

Ward 29 - Smitherman

Ward 30 - Smitherman

Ward 31- Smitherman

Ward 32 - Smitherman

Ward 33 - Ford

Ward 34 - Ford

Ward 35 - Smitherman

Ward 36 - Ford

Ward 37 - Ford

Ward 38 - Ford

Ward 39 - Ford

Ward 40 - Ford

Ward 41 - Smitherman

Ward 42 - Smitherman

Ward 43 - Ford

Ward 44 - Ford

A political

Don't count on Smitherman winning 31.  I live in the heaviest poll in the riding.  Not one Smitherman sign.  One Pantalone and 14 Fords.  What struck me is the lawns with no signs that usually have signs.  Those are closet Ford supporters.

A political

Stockholm wrote:

Everything I've heard about Ward 29 is that its between Jane Pitfield and Mary Fragedakis - if Jennifer Wood becomes a factor - it will help split the rightwing vote and make Fragedakis a certain winner.

Stockhom, I hope you are right.  Pitfield is a firend from way back.  We have somewhat different politics, but she works hard.  Don't mind Mary as a candidate, but my gut and head tell me it is going to Wood. 

farnival

Having been canvassing for Mary in Ward 29, my observation is the signs for Pitfield and Wood are no indication of support levels.  I have no problem knocking on a door with another candidates' sign in the yard (could be more than one opinion in the house), and aside from the fact that most yards with a Pitfield sign had a Wood sign too, and vice versa, and on the doors i knocked on that had them, english was not a first language.  It's quite common for ESL folks to just smile and say "sure" to a request to put up a sign, clearly not understanding, the result being a yard festooned with every candidates' sign.  Add that to the large amount of their signs slapped on to vacant buildings / storefronts, i really don't think the signs are any indication of support for either Pitfield or Wood.   And the amount of stifled groans at the debate i attended where Jane repeated too many times that "if she won, she'd buy a house in the ward" indicated to me that her support is soft.  

farnival

Stockholm wrote:

Most people live within short walking distance of polling stations so I don't think the weather will be that much of a factor. One thing that does irritate me is the fact that in municipal elections, the polls open at 10am and close at 8pm - why can't they open an hour or two earlier like they do in provincial and federal election so that more people can vote first thing in the morning before they go to work?? If they want to encourage voter participation - make voting hours more user friendly!!!

 

agreed! the late start time has always baffled me too, and apparently a number of my co-workers today who were complaining about it. I would add that advanced polling stations should be open for the entire writ period.  If you want people to participate, why not use every angle available?

Skinny Dipper

Ward 34: Wild guess: Peter Karl Youngren beats Denzil Minnan-Wong.

Skinny Dipper

It looks sunny near the DVP and 401.  The weather seems pretty mild right now.

socialdemocracynow

You have everything right except Ward 29. Jane looks like she's winning. I don't think Smitherman will win..

D V

I'm curious as to how commenters other than by wishful thinking fiugured in Ward 10 Shifman would win? It's my Ward, and it's possible that six candidates are clumped within 1000 votes of each other. I am guessing Oomen will win; and if she wins by one vote, it will not have been because of me.

Stockholm

There sure was a long line up at the polling station, but its hard to know if that means anything since I have nothing to compare it to since I voted at the advance poll in '06 and I can't remember '03.