Whither John Tory

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Doug
Whither John Tory

Saved in the nick of time! Maybe.

 

Party sources are confirming that MPP Laurie Scott will step aside so
Mr. Tory can run in the riding of Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, near
Peterborough.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090108.wPOLont-tory...

 

 

Sunday Hat

The Tories have four female MPPs and are about to lose one quarter of them. Way to step into the future.

It seems like a safe Tory seat. Federally they won it with 55 per cent and provincially Scott won with 49 per cent.

Can Tory win the nomination?

Star Spangled C...

It IS a safe seat and that's the problem. The only safe Tory seats are rural, northern and eastern ridings. Tory was supposed to lead a breaktrhough in Toronto and urban centres and now he's retreating back to the base in Haliburton.

JMasse

That would be funny if the riding regected his nomination. Voting against Tory in favour of a local candidate. BAH that would send a resounding message to Tory that no-one in the PC Party wants you here.

Wilf Day

To be more precise, he's retreating to the barber's chair in Lindsay, as Leslie Frost proverbially used to govern Ontario from.

 

Doug

Wilf Day wrote:

To be more precise, he's retreating to the barber's chair in Lindsay, as Leslie Frost proverbially used to govern Ontario from.

Which was fine, as the largest part of people in the province them lived somewhere a lot like Lindsay. These days, the greatest part of Ontarians live somewhere a lot like Mississauga.

adma

Is anyone else finding the Elections Ontario site down?  Wonder if they're "fixing up" for the byelection, or it's just a glitch at their end...

aka Mycroft

There's no by-election until McGuinty sets a date.

Wilf Day

At a press conference in Lindsay on Friday (Jan. 9), Ms Scott said she would be signing the papers that afternoon to pave the way for Mr. Tory to have a seat in the legislature.

Quote:
his need for a seat prompted her to approach him last fall with the offer. Ms Scott also said the move was her idea, because “I believe [under Tory] we’ll see true leadership...John Tory will be able to get things done in this riding.” Ms Scott said the decision was neither hasty nor easy; it came after much thought and discussion. When there were no appointments from Mr. Tory’s caucus to the Senate, she revisited her offer to relinquish her seat. She said her new job will be Elections and Readiness chair.

Mr. Tory would not say which riding he would run in if he is successful in the by-election. He did say that the road back to a Conservative government in Ontario “begins here today in Lindsay.”

"Leaders are supposed to attract women into politics, not force them out," said New Democrat Andrea Horwath.

The Liberals still have not decided whether they will run a candidate in the by-election.

Bruce Grey Owen Sound MPP Bill Murdoch, a long-time critic of John Tory who was turfed out of the Conservatives for saying Tory needed to get a seat in the legislature or resign as party leader, said it was about time Tory was finally getting on with his life.

Quote:
Murdoch gives the Conservative leader a 50-50 shot at winning the rural riding, which he says has gone to the NDP and Liberals in different elections over the years.

Christina Blizzard:

Quote:
As a long-time observer of the kind of blood-on-the-floor politics that's happening here, I have helpful hints for Tory.

- There is no such thing as a safe Tory seat. Don't take HKLB for granted.

It's an odd riding. Although it's 72.5% rural while next-door Peterborough riding is 72.5% urban, in the recent federal election the NDP candidate in Peterborough got only 13.9% while the 18-year-old NDP candidate in Haliburton -- Kawartha Lakes -- Brock got 14.6%. (Stephen Yardy is a social work student at Fleming College in Peterborough.) The Liberals got only 20.4%, Greens 8.3%, Conservatives 55.9%.

A safe seat? The Liberals did carry it federally in 1993, 1997, and 2000. Despite it having been Premier Leslie Frost's riding, the Liberals held it provincially from 1975 to 1990 when the NDP actually won it.

If the Liberals take a pass on the by-election, leaving the NDP to carry the opposition banner, might Bill Murdoch be right?

adma

Wilf Day wrote:

It's an odd riding. Although it's 72.5% rural while next-door Peterborough riding is 72.5% urban, in the recent federal election the NDP candidate in Peterborough got only 13.9% while the 18-year-old NDP candidate in Haliburton -- Kawartha Lakes -- Brock got 14.6%. (Stephen Yardy is a social work student at Fleming College in Peterborough.) The Liberals got only 20.4%, Greens 8.3%, Conservatives 55.9%.

A safe seat? The Liberals did carry it federally in 1993, 1997, and 2000. Despite it having been Premier Leslie Frost's riding, the Liberals held it provincially from 1975 to 1990 when the NDP actually won it.

If the Liberals take a pass on the by-election, leaving the NDP to carry the opposition banner, might Bill Murdoch be right?

 Well, substitute "Green" for "NDP" (and the NDP-favouring circumstances in 1990 were Shane Jolley-esque) and Murdoch might as well be speaking of his own seat.

 As for the most recent NDP result here vs Peterborough, it may be akin to the dead cat bounces Greens have gotten in non-Edmontonian Alberta, i.e. unlike Peterborough, the Liberals were not seen in contention at all, so there's more incentive to vote with the heart rather than "strategically".

 Remember, too, on behalf of Murdoch, that while the Liberals flopped vs John Tory in the Dufferin-Caledon byelection, they came within 10 points or so of Ernie Eves in *his* byelection.

 I'm still wondering if anyone else has had problems accessing the Elections Ontario site...

Wilf Day

Frustrated Mess wrote:
So far Tory has been singularly unable to win an election. I was thinking, wouldn't it be great if the parties that came 3rd and 4th last time decided to sit it out and support whoever came in just to keep Tory's record of losses perfect? 

But the Liberals got such a low vote last October in this riding precisely because no one thought they had a chance.

No, I think the Liberals should politely sit this one out, and let the NDP win by accident.

I have nothing against Stephen Yardy, the student who ran federally in October, but Joan Corrigan ran in this riding provincially in 2007. The local voters could keep the number of women in the legislature constant by electing her instead of John Tory.

In 2002 she helped found the City of Kawartha Lakes Health Coalition to protect and preserve our health care system from privatization and decay. She has also volunteered with the Dunsford Community Centre, the Canadian Mental Health Association, the Canadian Cancer Society, and the Community Development Council of Durham. She currently volunteers with Telecare Lindsay and is a member of the Durham Food Charter Task Force. 

Joan’s social activism began one day in about 1998 when she picked up a copy of Canadian Perspectives, published by the Council of Canadians. In 2001, Joan helped found the Peterborough-Kawartha chapter of the Council of Canadians. She actively participated in the recruitment of well-known and influential speakers to provide citizens of Peterborough and Kawartha area with public forums for key issues of the day.

In 2002, she helped found the City of Kawartha Lakes Health Coalition and was one of its original co-chairs. In 2004 she helped deliver a plebiscite on the streets of St. Catharines against P3 hospitals - an event jointly organized by the Ontario Health Coalition, the Council of Canadians and the Niagara Health Coalition. She made a presentation before the Romanow Commission, and her comments on national public healthcare have been published in the Promoter, both of the Lindsay area papers, and the Toronto Star.

Thinking it was logical to integrate her early experiences of social service work with her recent social activist activities, Joan decided to return to school in 2005 and is currently completing a degree in social work through Carleton University.

Joan and her husband, Joe, live in Lindsay with their children, Peter and Graeme.

 

adma

It might be worth noting (and saying something re her willingness to fall on John Tory's behalf) that Laurie Scott is a "moderate" by rural-Tory-caucus standards: an old-school PCer in her ex-MP father's mold who ran (and ran well in a hapless cause) for Joe Clark's federal team in 2000.  A far cry from her CSR-cornerstone predecessor Chris Hodgson, or the present ex-Reform federal placeholder Barry Devolin.

Frustrated Mess Frustrated Mess's picture

Quote:
No, I think the Liberals should politely sit this one out, and let the NDP win by accident.

Works for me.

Fidel

Apparently 22 percent of the eligible vote is all that stands between the ONDP and absolute power. I think McGuilty's Liberals are very beatable.

adma

Another thing about NDP seeing "potential" here: remember that they had a high-profile 2003 candidate in Earl Manners...

Doogan

I hope the NDP can field a strong candidate. The last time there was an NDP member in the riding, he caused a stir and a rift between him and then leader Bob Rae.

Does anyone have a sense of what the riding association and provincial executive think about this? Is there a list of names being floated as potential candidates?

My cottage is in the riding and i am curious to see how the by-election plays out.

Doug

"I love that word...Refooooooorm!" :)

The fledgling Reform Party of Ontario will run a candidate against
Progressive Conservative Leader John Tory in the upcoming
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock by-election.

Party leader Brad
Harness said conservative voters are seeking a viable alternative to
Tory, whom he called "an urbanite" and a member of "the Canadian
establishment, the moneyed establishment."

http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/570621

 

 

jenn watt

The NDP is having its nomination meeting for the riding Feb 15. These are the candidates. 

Lynne Boldt, chair of the Voices of Central Ontario and the Ontario De-amalgamation Network. Boldt has lived in Victoria County for 20 years and ran for mayor of Kawartha Lakes in 2006.

• Lyn Edwards, president of CUPE Local 855, representing municipal workers at the City of Kawartha Lakes. Edwards, 47, works in the city’s emergency services department and lives in Oakwood.

• Stephen Woof, vice president of the local district of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation. Wood, 53, teaches at Haliburton Highlands Secondary School and lives in West Guilford.

 http://www.thepost.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=1413386

madmax

NDP has its work cut out for it.

www.thepost.ca

Poll is still open.

 

 

Who will you vote for in the local byelection?

PC - John Tory 48% 906

LIBERAL - Rick Johnson 38% 708

GREEN - Mike Schreiner 1% 14

NDP - Lyn Edwards 12% 233

FREEDOM - Bill Denby 1% 16

Lord Palmerston

Tory will probably pull if off just because Haliburton is such a traditionally Conservative (but not the John Tory kind) riding, but I think it's probably harder to carpetbag in Haliburton than it is in Dufferin-Caledon which is at least in the GTA.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

If my canvassing today in Lindsay was any indication, John Tory is headed for defeat (even people with his signs told me that they had not asked for the signs and had no intention of voting for him). The only question is who HKLB want to represent them: one more person applauding McGuinty's non-answers in Question Period, or someone who will be asking him the tough questions.

Lord Palmerston

Please don't predict it's going NDP...

Lost in Bruce County

LP - it's going to be the NDP Cool

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

At this point, I would suspect that it's going Liberal, but anything can happen in the next 19 days.

To be honest, I think the Liberals are hoping that Tory just squeezes in. That way, he'll continue to be a weak opponent. If he loses he's out for sure, and they might have to face someone more credible (not that I see anyone in that caucus who I find very credible).

Lord Palmerston

I disagree.  The Libs would probably Tory lose.  This would leave the party as largely a rural rump and the PC's will probably pick a more rightwing leader who will be less appealing in urban areas. 

Stockholm

I hope Tory wins the byelection. Sooner or later the PCs will regain power in Ontario and McGuinty is going to have to do some VERY unpopular stuff over the next two years. If the PCs have to win, I'd rather they do it under the leadership of someone vaguely tolerable like John Tory - than under the leadership of some Common Sense Revolutionary Phase Two type who would inevitably take over that party if Tory lost the byelection.

adma

Scott Piatkowski wrote:
If my canvassing today in Lindsay was any indication, John Tory is headed for defeat (even people with his signs told me that they had not asked for the signs and had no intention of voting for him).
Though a caveat: Lindsay is where you're likely to see the most Liberal support, anyway...

aka Mycroft

madmax wrote:

NDP has its work cut out for it.

www.thepost.ca

Poll is still open.

Who will you vote for in the local byelection?

PC - John Tory 48% 906

LIBERAL - Rick Johnson 38% 708

GREEN - Mike Schreiner 1% 14

NDP - Lyn Edwards 12% 233

FREEDOM - Bill Denby 1% 16

babble really needs a boilerplate post to explain why self-selected (ie non-random) internet polls are useless.

madmax

  PC - John Tory 48% 926LIBERAL - Rick Johnson 37% 716GREEN - Mike Schreiner 1% 14NDP - Lyn Edwards 13% 251FREEDOM - Bill Denby 1% 16

 Formatting issues :(

As you can see the NDP vote has picked up somewhat but lost 1% overall and is sitting at a traditional average.  As it is a local newpaper, and as no serious polling firms seem to get used in by elections, it is the best straw poll you are going to find.

It points out some trends, and weights things according to support of the base and the mobilizing efforts, mixed with people who like to read their local paper and vote on internet polls.

I would like to see the NDP candidate win, 1) Because its not another weak Liberal MPP, nodding off in parliment, and 2) because, it would be quite the message if John Tory lost his chance for a seat to the NDP.

My Guess is that Conservatives will plug their nose and vote for John Tory, just to keep the seat blue.

In 19 days, anything can happen and the NDP have proven themselves effective in By Elections.

madmax

That poll is still open...

Stockholm

It sure would be nice to see the so-called Green candidate get 1% in that byelection - that would really make their 8% in the last Ontario election look like a flash in the pan if ever there was one.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

The Green candidate is also from Toronto. Maybe he and John Tory could carpool to Lindsay when there's a debate.

Stockholm

I'm surprised the Ontario so-called greens aren't making a bigger effort in this byelection. This riding would be tailor made for them - lots of old-line WASPs who might like their policy of eliminating Catholic schools - plus a solid contingent of hobby farmers and back to the land types. It is the PERFECT seat for them - why isn't their leader Frank DeJong running here - he's already run in about 12 different ridings - why not give this one a whirl as well and see if he can set a record for running (and losing) in the most ridings in Ontario history!

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Stockholm wrote:
It is the PERFECT seat for them - why isn't their leader Frank DeJong running here - he's already run in about 12 different ridings - why not give this one a whirl as well and see if he can set a record for running (and losing) in the most ridings in Ontario history!

 You haven't heard of John Turmel?

janfromthebruce

madmax wrote:
That poll is still open...

Incidently one can vote in this poll more than once. I have voted 3X, and each time it said thank you for voting. Often this is true with small newspaper polls. 

You can go back and vote again, if you shut down your computer, and than reconnect to the internet. It doesn't recognize your ip. Make no mistake, the cons know how to frip this poll. You are right it is meaningless, but most folks don't know that it is meaningless, and it might sway someone to think about a particular candidate if their local newspaper is showing some support.

Go ahead, vote again, as long as you have gone up the internet for a certain amount of time, and go back in and go to the page. 

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

madmax

That would work for dialup, and not all polls are that easily manipulated. Even online newspaper ones. But so be it.

Just for fun, I tried it and the vote was allowed, but the count did not change.  Other online ones say you already voted.

Even Still, I have seen when GP members mount an online voting campaign, and when the online poll doesn't bear any resemblence to facts on the ground, or historical voting intention, you know the poll is screwed.

However, I do believe that this poll suggests some truth in that the Conservatives hold the riding and John Tory is likely the front runner. The Liberal is likely to hold much of his vote, and the NDP is in 3rd but with possibly more or less support, but certainly could use more active NDPers voting in an online poll ........ NOT.

 That independent has alot of votes ...... ;)

 

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Polls are the nuclear weapon of democracy.

Babbling Jenn

I actually live in the riding - in the *gasp* rural area. Even here there is distrust of Tory. It is not that people want to vote Liberal, but that they are upset that the former MPP resigned. She was very popular and people are upset that she quit. 

 As for the online polls, I would just take them as fun. It gets people talking and thinking about issues. It's interesting to note, though, that the Haliburton Echo www.haliburtonecho.ca (also in the riding) has a very similar poll. 

I've been watching it for a while and it seems that the votes come in partisan waves. At first the Liberal was way out ahead and now Tory is. NDP has 11% and Green has but one vote.

Another opinion on the candidates - the NDP candidate is just brutal. She does not have a knowledge of the area's issues and is like a one-track candidate. There is no question asked of her that is not answered "more money for health care and education."

Yuck! 

 

janfromthebruce

The local NDP candidate would do well to talk to local trustees, particularly the largest public board in her area. Oops, Rick Johnston was the chair. Best to talk to another trustee on the board. I know one.

She could than talk meaningfully about education issues than "just more money" which are a related problem but not the whole thing, it's more complex. Maybe she should talk with Rosario, our ed critic. He could give her some indepth on education and the "real issues" of concern in mainly rural area of delivery.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Fidel

I think the Tories are wondering the same thing of McGuinty and his budget to deal with the recession. Ontario is behind other jurisdictions for laying out a plan to deal with job losses and general all around failure of the neoliberal setup. And it means that Ontarians will suffer the consequences. McGuinty and his Liberals are incompetent.

adma

"The local NDP candidate would do well to talk to local trustees, particularly the largest public board in her area. Oops, Rick Johnston was the chair. Best to talk to another trustee on the board. I know one. "

 

Earl Manners?

 

Anyway, if it's about a 10-point gap over the Liberals, remember that Ernie Eves won with a similar gap in his 2002 byelection...

Bookish Agrarian

Scott Piatkowski wrote:
The Green candidate is also from Toronto. Maybe he and John Tory could carpool to Lindsay when there's a debate.

 Maybe, but Mike Shriener is the kind of person we should be recruiting.   The NDP would be smart if they try to bring Mike into the fold after this foray into politics.  At a recent progressive farm issues meeting in the area Liberals and Greens made sure there was someone prominent in the audience.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Scott Piatkowski wrote:
The Green candidate is also from Toronto. Maybe he and John Tory could carpool to Lindsay when there's a debate.

 Maybe, but Mike Shriener is the kind of person we should be recruiting.   The NDP would be smart if they try to bring Mike into the fold after this foray into politics.  At a recent progressive farm issues meeting in the area Liberals and Greens made sure there was someone prominent in the audience.

Oh, I agree. But, he has no more claim to running in HKLB than Tory.

Bookish Agrarian

And on that I agree.  Other than Shriener probably at least knew where Lindsay was before the by-election.  I'm not sure the same could be said for Tory.

Scott Piatkowski Scott Piatkowski's picture

Interesting take on the by-election from Inside Queen's Park

BY-ELECTION UPSET?
Could John Tory be defeated on March 5? LIB spindoctors have at any rate succeeded in putting into serious discourse the possibility that Rick Johnston might take back the Haliburton seat and cripple the PC leader. (IQP recalls Mike Harris’s media man, Peter Varley, successfully putting across the notion that his party could not expect to break the Opposition hold on Leslie Frost’s old turf – translating into even bigger PC momentum stories when Chris Hodgson took the Victoria-Haliburton seat in the May 1994 vote.)
If Tory is defeated, it will mark a return for the PCs to the internal wrangling which long was that party’s baneful state at the federal level. Ironically, that would be re-emerging just as Bob Rae’s elegant refusal to be bitter about Michael Ignatieff’s installation as federal leader gives the LIBs a chance to get beyond the internecine strife which has blighted that party nationally for a generation.
Already, there are poll figures (from little-known Holinshed Research Group) being peddled by an outfit which trades as Concerned Conservatives of Ontario purporting to prove that Tory isn’t acceptable in the byelection riding. Laurie Scott’s departure is opposed by 70% of party supporters while 41% of Haliburton PCs are less likely to keep the party faith with the leader on the ballot. Speaking for CCO is electrical contractor Walter Pamic, whom IQP has encountered among activists of the andowners’ Association, whose effective leader is Lanark-Frontenac MPP Randy Hillier.

Lord Palmerston

adma wrote:
Anyway, if it's about a 10-point gap over the Liberals, remember that Ernie Eves won with a similar gap in his 2002 byelection...

Yeah, but Dufferin-Caledon seems more "carpetbaggable" by suits than HKB.

janfromthebruce

adma wrote:

"The local NDP candidate would do well to talk to local trustees, particularly the largest public board in her area. Oops, Rick Johnston was the chair. Best to talk to another trustee on the board. I know one. "

 

Earl Manners?

 

Anyway, if it's about a 10-point gap over the Liberals, remember that Ernie Eves won with a similar gap in his 2002 byelection...

 Earl Manners is not an elected school trustee but human resource superintendent at the local public school board. Although we all care about kids and their education needs, a trustee comes from the best interest of kids, parents, and local communities. We also want to ensure that our employees have good places to work in and have the resources to do the best job - excellence in education and student achievement. 

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

madmax

Babbling Jenn wrote:

Another opinion on the candidates - the NDP candidate is just brutal. She does not have a knowledge of the area's issues and is like a one-track candidate. There is no question asked of her that is not answered "more money for health care and education."

Yuck! 

  So there are 3 candidates running with no knowledge of the areas issues?  Well then, the Liberals are going for the win. 

Have there already been debates? I hear that there is alot of Job loss in the region. Are you suggesting that when asked that question the NDP candidate says "More money for health care and education".  Because the funny part is, when the people are losing their jobs by the 10s of thousands in my region, the Liberals McGuinty, seem to spend more time talking about education and health care and are MUTE when it comes to jobloss.

Hear is the first release I was aware of from the NDP candidate.

Quote:
 

Jobs lead issues for NDP candidate Posted By Peggy Armstrong, Lindsay Post ReporterUpdated 10 days ago  

KAWARTHA LAKES - Keeping jobs in Ontario will be a big plank in the NDP byelection platform, says the newly chosen candidate for the riding of Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock.

Lyn Edwards, the president of the local Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) that represents many municipal workers captured the nomination at the Lindsay Inn on Lindsay Street South on Sunday afternoon.

Edwards, 47, beat out Lynne Boldt, a member of the anti-amalgamation movement Voices of Central Ontario (VOCO), and Stephen Woof, a Haliburton County high school teacher.

The issue of jobs and the Buy Ontario program will be the focus of her campaign, Edwards told The Lindsay Post on Monday. "We need to keep jobs here," she said.

See, I  believed you when you said, health care and education is the only thing the NDP candidate commented on.  Then I googled.....

At what event did you meet the candidates? What are the local issues?  

I believe the Liberals are going to spare no expense to try to win this riding. 

 

 

Bookish Agrarian

If they do they would be making a mistake.  For the Liberals John Tory is the gift that keeps on giving.  If they win I expect it will be in despite of their best efforts to not really win.  If this was closer to the next election I could go for them working all out, but right now their best option is a continued Tory presence with him embattled from all sides.

I expect a lot of Liberals to stay home, or to 'help' the team by voting Tory.

Mojoroad1

If that were true BA, then why did McGuinty break tradition and field a candidate???

 

Bookish Agrarian

I've wondered that myself. Although it really isn't a tradition. I can't see the Liberals wanting to chance the Conservatives getting their act together under a new leader.  If Tory stays on there is a chance that Hillier and others may spilt and form something new, or continue to undermine Tory.  Either way McGuinty wins.  Of course it could be that the Liberals aren't half as smart as I am giving them the credit of being.

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