Alberta politics election thread 2

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voice of the damned

That chart at #47 is disorienting. It should be constructed the other way around, ie. each graph should represent a region, and each colour a different party. At least, that's how I'm accustomed to seeing it.

NorthReport

Agree with the 2 previous posts

Policywonk

Rokossovsky wrote:

josh wrote:

nicky wrote:

Unreal numbers in latest poll. NDP leading 44 to 20 to 19. 

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-clos...

This poll has the NDP ahead in all regions. That seems a stretch, but even if they are in a close three way fight outside of Edmonton and Calgary that would be more than enough for a strong majority. I would like to see collaborating polls though.

 

if we tally up the “potential holds” at this point, discounting for the momentum and growth of the NDP, we can estimate that they are currently 6 to 10 seats behind the PCs (given the current regional splits) – assuming that the Wildrose take about 15 to 20 seats in rural Alberta and suburban Calgary, and Greg Clark lands Calgary Elbow. . . .  Further, there is a circumstance that the NDP can win the popular vote by a massive margin and yet come in third. With lots of potentially close ridings, and the massive, efficient PC GOTV effort to be unleashed there many more chapters to play out over the course of this last week.

 

I think there will be great concern as to the legitimacy of the electoral proces if the NDP gets 44% of the vote, and comes in third.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Notley has pledged to raise the minimum wage to $15 in Alberta within 3 years  - what's not to like?

 

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-notleys-overreach

It was already in the platform. Alberta's current minimum wage is 10.20 an hour, lower than any other province or territory except the NWT. It will be interesting to see if this helps or hurts the momemtum. 

NorthReport

Quite the contrast compared to those who work in the oilpatch, that is if they are working anymore.

Policywonk

Policywonk wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

josh wrote:

nicky wrote:

Unreal numbers in latest poll. NDP leading 44 to 20 to 19. 

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-clos...

This poll has the NDP ahead in all regions. That seems a stretch, but even if they are in a close three way fight outside of Edmonton and Calgary that would be more than enough for a strong majority. I would like to see collaborating polls though.

 

if we tally up the “potential holds” at this point, discounting for the momentum and growth of the NDP, we can estimate that they are currently 6 to 10 seats behind the PCs (given the current regional splits) – assuming that the Wildrose take about 15 to 20 seats in rural Alberta and suburban Calgary, and Greg Clark lands Calgary Elbow. . . .  Further, there is a circumstance that the NDP can win the popular vote by a massive margin and yet come in third. With lots of potentially close ridings, and the massive, efficient PC GOTV effort to be unleashed there many more chapters to play out over the course of this last week.

 

I think there will be great concern as to the legitimacy of the electoral proces if the NDP gets 44% of the vote, and comes in third.

IF (and that's a big if) this poll were correct, and holds until voting day, the NDP is ahead in all regions. Given the split on the right (again if the poll is correct and the NDP is ahead in all regions), it would mean a landslide. However I'm taking it with quite a few grains of salt. A lot can change in a week.

NorthReport

I suppose he doesn't feel he can defend the government's education policies, eh!  Frown

Gordon Dirks skips education forum in Calgary-Elbow

Education minister's absence criticized by other candidates, teacher groups

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/gordon-dirks-skips-educat...

NorthReport

Excellent - staying focused on your own priorities!!!

Rachel Notley says priorities are job creation, education and health careNotley addressed royalty reviews, taxation, budgeting errors and pipelines in pair of interviews

CBC News Posted: Apr 29, 2015 10:23 AM MT Last Updated: Apr 29, 2015 10:23 AM MT

"Really, we've been trying to focus on the good parts of our policy in terms of our focus on job creation, on protecting our education and improving our health care. But that being said, you know, I think there's been a lot of ... fearmongering by the Tories about what might happen should we be elected," NDP Leader Rachel Notley said Wednesday.

"Really, we've been trying to focus on the good parts of our policy in terms of our focus on job creation, on protecting our education and improving our health care. But that being said, you know, I think there's been a lot of ... fearmongering by the Tories about what might happen should we be elected," NDP Leader Rachel Notley said Wednesday. (CBC)

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/rachel-notley-says-priori...

 

NorthReport

That's right - keep your promises if elected, unlike the right-wingers who lie to you every waking day.

Alberta election race in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-race-in-...

NorthReport

Shame on Prentice trying to pass Mintz off as some neutral unbiased economist when he sits on Imperial Oil's Board of Directors!

Best interests of Albertans, or big oil?

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/Opinion+Best+interests+Albertans/...

NorthReport

PCs feeling the heat of the polls: NDP

Calgary, AB, Canada / News Talk 770 (CHQR)Aurelio PerriApril 29, 2015 11:33 am NDP

The NDP thinks the PC leader is feeling the pressure from recent polls.

She didn’t come right out and say it, but Rachel Notley is implying that Jim Prentice is desperate in attacking her and the NDP party instead of promoting his budget and his plan for Alberta.

Notley says under her reign, private health care would be a thing of the past in the province. She held an availability outside a clinic in southwest Calgary. Notley also says she would restore the $1-billion in health care cuts in Jim Prentice’s budget.


http://www.newstalk770.com/2015/04/29/pcs-feeling-the-heat-of-the-polls-...

NorthReport

A bit dated but relevant

Health levy meets with thumbs down from critics.Calgary, AB, Canada / News Talk 770 (CHQR)Tony KingMarch 25, 2015 06:51 amHealth levy meets with thumbs down from critics.

Opposition parties and health care lobby groups are unimpressed after Premier Jim Prentice warned of a health care levy in Thursday’s Alberta budget.

 

 

http://www.newstalk770.com/2015/03/25/health-levy-meets-with-thumbs-down...

NorthReport

NDP gov’t would bring needed change in Alberta

http://lethbridgeherald.com/commentary/letters-to-the-editor/2015/04/28/...

NorthReport

Wildrose appears far from dead

Last Dec. 17 Danielle Smith and eight other Wildrose MLAs strode over to the Progressive Conservative side of the legislature carpet – all harsh words previously uttered between the defectors and their former foe were now inoperative. The news stunned Alberta’s political observers. Coming after two Wildrose floor crossings three weeks earlier (following which Danielle had vowed there would be no further defections), the excited talk was that Wildrose was likely finished. Yet with less than a week left in the current election campaign it is apparent that Premier Prentice’s gambit to unite the right has not succeeded. The plastic politician show played poorly. No more Wildrosers jumped ship, the beleaguered crew rallied, and since the election writ dropped Wildrose has battled on effectively.

In welcoming his former opponents aboard the Good Ship Tory, the premier possibly remembered an earlier experience that seemingly augured smooth sailing. In 2003, he had been a supporter of the federal Progressive Conservative Party when it voted to merge with the Canadian Alliance. The newly minted Conservative Party of Canada prospered. A little more than two years later it became the government, and the then MP Jim Prentice was made a cabinet minister. But there were significant differences between the 2003 merger and last December’s quickie coat turning. Back in 2003, the federal PCs were going nowhere, a party still in tatters after its post-Mulroney shredding a decade earlier. In contrast, Wildrose has been on the build from its formation in 2008, was actually predicted to win Alberta’s 2012 election, and held together after its surprise defeat. Another difference is that the 2003 union of the federal right involved open debate and votes on both sides. By contrast, the first time Wildrose members learned of Danielle’s deal with Premier Jim came when he and the floor crossers were exchanging hosannas that long ago day in December.

The biggest threat to Wildrose now may be last minute strategic voting, with Wildrose supporters deciding to hold their noses and cast ballots for the Prentice team to keep out Red Rachel, while Liberal Party adherents anxious to bar Wildrose from power but recognizing their own party’s present infirmity vote instead for the burgeoning NDP. But memories of Allison and the Sky Palace will likely merge with resentment at Premier Prentice’s attempted gutting of Wildrose to ensure that a solid core of Wildrose votes will remain. After all, should Prentice and the Tories begin to crumble in this election, Wildrose is the heir apparent on the right. But this leads to a bit of apocalypse now thinking – what if enough people in the province have become convinced that it is time for the PCs to go? Hard to believe, but seemingly solid dynasties can crumble fast. In 1993, federal PC support eroded steadily over Kim Campbell’s ill-fated campaign, but no commentators I recall predicted that a governing party with a vast majority would be burned back to only two elected members.


http://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/20150429/SAG0903/304299996/-1/sag...

NorthReport

Come on Wildrose, split that right-wing vote!  Laughing

Wildrose promises to complete Calgary ring road on time – if elected

http://www.newstalk770.com/2015/04/29/wildrose-promises-to-complete-calg...

NorthReport

Court considering bid to open case between Jonathan Denis and estranged wife to the public

 

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/court-considering-bid-to-open-cas...

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

The biggest threat to Wildrose now may be last minute strategic voting, with Wildrose supporters deciding to hold their noses and cast ballots for the Prentice team to keep out Red Rachel, while Liberal Party adherents anxious to bar Wildrose from power but recognizing their own party’s present infirmity vote instead for the burgeoning NDP. But memories of Allison and the Sky Palace will likely merge with resentment at Premier Prentice’s attempted gutting of Wildrose to ensure that a solid core of Wildrose votes will remain. After all, should Prentice and the Tories begin to crumble in this election, Wildrose is the heir apparent on the right. But this leads to a bit of apocalypse now thinking – what if enough people in the province have become convinced that it is time for the PCs to go? Hard to believe, but seemingly solid dynasties can crumble fast. In 1993, federal PC support eroded steadily over Kim Campbell’s ill-fated campaign, but no commentators I recall predicted that a governing party with a vast majority would be burned back to only two elected members.

http://www.stalbertgazette.com/article/20150429/SAG0903/304299996/-1/sag...

No, but it was clear they weren't going to get very many seats, since their support was spread thin across the country and the BQ, Reform, and the Liberals were more concentrated; the Liberals most importantly in Ontario, Reform west of Ontario, and the BQ in Quebec of course. The same may apply in Alberta with the NDP concentrated in the major cities and Wild Rose in rural areas, particularly in southern Alberta. It will be interesting to see if the right wing vote consolidates with either Wild Rose or the Conservatives. I think the former may be more likely, but not enough to prevent at least an NDP plurality if the NDP really is leading the polls by such a wide margin. If the right wing vote really is spit in the low twenties on election day it could be quite a night next Tuesday.

NorthReport

You know you are in trouble when you start attacking the media.  Laughing

Sure let's focus on the economy - how many Albertans have lost their jobs in the last few months?

Prentice calls on voters, media to focus on economy, not PC controversies

http://www.canada.com/news/politics/Prentice+calls+voters+media+focus+ec...

NorthReport

Jonathan Denis court proceedings to continue in open court, judge rules

'We must maintain the fragile confidence the public has when it comes to politicians,' says lawyer

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jonathan-denis-court-proceedings-t...

NorthReport

Alberta Tories diverted by family quarrel as election day nears

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/don-braid-alberta-tories-diver...

NorthReport

 

Jim Prentice defends PC Alberta election candidate convicted of soliciting prostitute

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/jim-prentice-...

NorthReport

How the smooth sailing to a 13th PC majority in Alberta went off course  Laughing

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/dan-arnold-how-the-smooth-sail...

6079_Smith_W

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/Opinion+Best+interests+Albertans/...

Quote:

I was desperate for either Liberal Leader David Swann or NDP Leader Rachel Notley to grab the microphone, turn to the camera and tell voters that this economist the PCs and the Wildrose are so eager to please is paid to serve on the board of directors of Imperial Oil. As such, he is obligated to advance the best interests of Imperial Oil.

6079_Smith_W

Top 70 political donors in Alberta:

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/donations/table.html

... not putting all their eggs in one basket either. In fact, the donations to the Liberals rather than Wildrose are significant. Perhaps it is because Wildrose has more of a base among people who actually have to live with sour gas, dirty water and the other effects of the oil industry.

 

NorthReport

Rachel needs to stay in Calgary right up until Sunday and go after the PC mismanagement - compare Norway to Alberta's heritage fund, and then have a huge rally in Edmonton on Sunday nite. 

The media shouls start asking Prentice if he will accept that the party who wins the most number of seats will form the government

NorthReport

It's not over yet!  Just watch what big money and control of the press can do.

Just how scary is Rachel Notley?

Are you scared yet? Get ready. The ooga-booga campaign is just beginning.

The only play left for the Progressive Conservatives is to frighten Albertans with the spectre of an NDP government, in hopes that right-side voters will switch from Wildrose back to their traditional home.

That’s their road to the 13th PC majority in a row. And it could work on May 5, even though NDP Leader Rachel Notley actually appears to be ahead.

Or rather, it can work because she seems to be ahead.

The prospect of the NDP winning the most seats is just the wedge the PCs need to give second life to a campaign that seemed almost dead.


http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-just-how-scary-is-rachel-no...

jerrym

In Alberta and Ottawa, the Cons' addiction to fossil fuels not only contributes to global warming and catastrophic fossil fuel accidents such as BP's in the Gulf of Mexico (and quite possibly off the BC coast as tanker traffic grows exponentially due to additional pipelines), it risks leaving us behind as a fossil fuel dinosaur as renewable energy growth climbs exponentially.

Renewable energy investment already surpassed fossil fuel energy investment in 2011  in new power-plant investments for the first time (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-11-25/fossil-fuels-beaten-by...).

Meanwhile thanks to the Cons we remain fossil fuel dinosaurs, with all the risks that entails. 

The Cons in Alberta are now paying the price for a one-dimensional economic policy and hopefully the Cons in Ottawa will pay in October. 

The following article details renewable energy's remarkable growth and points in the direction Canada needs to shift if it is not to be left behind in the future. 

 

Quote:

 

Power generation from hydro, wind, solar and other renewable sources worldwide will exceed that from gas and be twice that from nuclear by 2016, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today in its second annual Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report (MTRMR).    

According to MTRMR, despite a difficult economic context, renewable power is expected to increase by 40% in the next five years. Renewables are now the fastest-growing power generation sector and will make up almost a quarter of the global power mix by 2018, up from an estimated 20% in 2011. The share of non-hydro sources such as wind, solar, bioenergy and geothermal in total power generation will double, reaching 8% by 2018, up from 4% in 2011 and just 2% in 2006.

“As their costs continue to fall, renewable power sources are increasingly standing on their own merits versus new fossil-fuel generation,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven as she presented the report at the Renewable Energy Finance Forum in New York. “This is good news for a global energy system that needs to become cleaner and more diversified, but it should not be an excuse for government complacency, especially among OECD countries.” ...

The forecasts in the report build on the impressive growth registered in 2012, when global renewable generation rose by over 8% despite a challenging investment, policy and industry context in some areas. In absolute terms, global renewable generation in 2012 – at 4 860 TWh – exceeded the total estimated electricity consumption of China.

Two main factors are driving the positive outlook for renewable power generation. First, investment and deployment are accelerating in emerging markets, where renewables help to address fast-rising electricity demand, energy diversification needs and local pollution concerns while contributing to climate change mitigation. Led by China, non-OECD countries are expected to account for two-thirds of the global increase in renewable power generation between now and 2018. Such rapid deployment is expected to more than compensate for slower growth and smooth out volatility in other areas, notably Europe and the US.

Second, in addition to the well-established competitiveness of hydropower, geothermal and bioenergy, renewables are becoming cost-competitive in a wider set of circumstances. For example, wind competes well with new fossil-fuel power plants in several markets, including Brazil, Turkey and New Zealand. Solar is attractive in markets with high peak prices for electricity, for instance, those resulting from oil-fired generation. Decentralised solar photovoltaic generation costs can be lower than retail electricity prices in a number of countries.

 

 

https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/renewables...

 

 

jerrym

The extent of the shift towards renewable energy is seen in the following statement from the United Nations Environment (UNEP) 2015 Report:

"Renewable energy technologies excluding large hydro made up 48% of the net power capacity added worldwide in 2014, the third successive year in which this figure has been above 40%." (http://apps.unep.org/publications/pmtdocuments/-Global_trends_in_renewab...)

Meanwhile the Cons remain dinosaurs sinking in the tarsands.

 Here are more details from the UNEP report.

 

Quote:

 

Global investment in renewable power and fuels (excluding large hydro-electric projects) was $270.2 billion in 2014, nearly 17% higher than the previous year.  ...

The trend last year was, arguably, even more impressive than it would seem from the investment numbers, because a record number capacity of wind and solar photovoltaic power was installed, at about 95GW. ...

A key feature of 2014 was the continuing spread of renewable energy to new markets. Investment in developing countries, at $131.3 billion, was up 36% on the previous year and came the closest ever to overhauling the total for developed economies, at $138.9 billion, up just 3% on the year. Indonesia, Chile, Mexico, Kenya, South Africa and Turkey were all in the billion-dollar-plus club in 2014 in terms of investment in renewables, and others such as Jordan, Uruguay, Panama, the Philippines and Myanmar were in the $500 million to $1 billion range. ...

Renewables faced challenges as 2015 began – notably from policy uncertainty in markets such as the US and the UK, retroactive policy changes in countries such as Italy and Romania, and concerns about grid access for small-scale solar in Japan and some US states. The most daunting challenge was, at first sight, the impact of the 50%-plus collapse in the oil price in the second half of last year. However, although the oil price is likely to dampen investor confidence in parts of the sector, such as solar in oil-exporting countries, and biofuels, in most parts of the world, oil and renewables do not compete for power investment dollars. Wind and solar sectors should be able to carry on flourishing, particularly if they continue to cut costs per MWh.

The cost-cutting achieved to date helped to ensure strong momentum for both those technologies in 2014. Overall investment in solar was up 29% to $149.6 billion, while that in wind advanced 11% to a record $99.5 billion.

The biggest locations for renewable energy investment last year were, predictably, the established markets in major economies – with China far out in front at $83.3 billion, a record number and 39% ahead of 2013. In second place came the US, at $38.3 billion, up 7% on the year but still well below its all-time high, reached in 2011. Third came Japan, at $35.7 billion, a tenth higher than in 2013 and its biggest total ever. India was up 14% at $7.4 billion, and Brazil 93% higher, at $7.6 billion.