Federal election - 2015 (Ontario)

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Brachina

 Will Mulcair calling Toronto the most important city in Canada hurt him in other cities?

Stockholm

Brachina wrote:

 Will Mulcair calling Toronto the most important city in Canada hurt him in other cities?

I don't think so because a. He is not from Toronto himself and b. everyone knows its true

socialdemocrati...

Some people are trying to make political hay out of it, but most people understand that we're talking about 20% of the country's population in one tiny geographic area. 

Brachina

 If the GTA became its own province i'd be the third largest province by population and economy.

terrytowel

Election Predictor has just changed the status for both Spadina-Fort York and University-Rosedale. From too close to call to wins for Olivia Chow and Jennifer Hollett of the NDP. Guess David Akin was right when he said Adam Vaughan and Chrystia Freeland would go down in defeat.

In addition Election Predictor has said the NDP will hang on to every NDP seat they won in 2011, but Rahtika and Dan Harris seat is still listed as too close to call.

jjuares

Stockholm wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 Will Mulcair calling Toronto the most important city in Canada hurt him in other cities?

I don't think so because a. He is not from Toronto himself and b. everyone knows its true


Toronto is the largest and most important economically. I have visited the place twice and that is enough but it's central role in our economy can't be denied.

NorthReport
Stockholm

I'm actually very surprised that Wynne would intervene so openly for Trudeau in the election. And this will backfire in a big way. The Wynne government is VERY unpopular right now and the more people see Wynne and Trudeau together the more it will tempt the, to reject the federal Liberals as a way of sending a. Message to the Ontario Liberals

ctrl190

How would you rank the likely pickups in Toronto? Does University-Rosedale look more secure than Toronto-Centre? What about Scarborough Rouge Park and Scarborough Centre?

mark_alfred

Liberals inching up and Conservatives inching down.  So, now a three-way tie in Ontario according to CBC poll tracker.  link

josh

Mark Adler exploits the Holocaust for electoral advantage while prattling on about moral relativism.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/17/adler-wont-apologize-for-holocaust-refere...

quizzical

what's the political climate like in Hamilton?

David Young

quizzical wrote:

what's the political climate like in Hamilton?

My bet would be the NDP holding onto the three seats they have now, and adding the new Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas riding.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

4 former, and very high profile Libs running for NDP. https://twitter.com/PaulMason2/status/633364193652031488/photo/1  Say Mulciar's message "resonates" wth them. Hurray!

quizzical

thanks David Young....was wondering. met my mom's cousin from there and she seemed pretty Conservative or at the very least a person concerned with the "ISIS threat'.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

quizzical wrote:

thanks David Young....was wondering. met my mom's cousin from there and she seemed pretty Conservative or at the very least a person concerned with the "ISIS threat'.

Well, even though the NDP has been pretty dominant here in Hamilton for the last 10 years or so, there have been plenty of Con and Lib victories here in the past, and there are still plenty of supporters of both those parties. Just not enough to win any seats this year.

Rokossovsky

Sealed

ctrl190

quizzical wrote:

what's the political climate like in Hamilton?

As David mentioned, the NDP has a real chance in Hamilton West - Ancaster. In Hamilton Mountain the Liberals haven't even selected a candidate yet to face popular local councillor Scott Duvall. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek Wayne Marston said he did not want to bother constituents with campaigning over the summer. He faces former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina  in what could be a pretty tight race. Meanwhile in Hamilton Centre Christopherson should win in a cake walk. 

Ciabatta2

Bratina won't win.

ctrl190

Mulcair was in Dundas today. Pretty sure that's the first time an NDP leader has stumped there. That must be good news for Johnstone. 

Ciabatta2

Riding dynamics mean that Johnstone actually has a shot.  It's really too bad for the NDP that Paikin didn't end up running for the Liberals.  Tassi will pull more voters loose from the Cons than Paikin ever would have.

bekayne

ctrl190 wrote:

Mulcair was in Dundas today. 

By the mighty Grand River?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

bekayne wrote:

ctrl190 wrote:

Mulcair was in Dundas today. 

By the mighty Grand River?

Sorry, but the Grand River doesn't come within 40km of Dundas. But it does run through Brantford, where Mulcair held a rally last night.

bekayne

Michael Moriarity wrote:

bekayne wrote:

ctrl190 wrote:

Mulcair was in Dundas today. 

By the mighty Grand River?

Sorry, but the Grand River doesn't come within 40km of Dundas. But it does run through Brantford, where Mulcair held a rally last night.

My mistake, it's Dunnville that's by the mighty Grand River. A Jack Farr and "The Radio Show" reference.

adma

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Riding dynamics mean that Johnstone actually has a shot.  It's really too bad for the NDP that Paikin didn't end up running for the Liberals.  Tassi will pull more voters loose from the Cons than Paikin ever would have.

But it could also be argued: Tassi (with her record of being a thinly-suppressed socon) will forfeit more votes to the NDP than Paikin ever would have.  That is, she may play well in Ancaster, but not so much in Dundas or Westdale;  while the "inherited" parts of other ridings already superendorsed the NDP in 2011, so there's less stigma in the option...

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

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terrytowel

wrote this in another thread, but I'm putting it here as well (cause it is the Ontario thread)

According to 308 the Libs are on tracks to sweep all the seats in Etobicoke, Scarborough, Mississauga, Brampton, North York and the Don Valley. But still ten weeks left alot of fluidity anything can happen.

The only seats in the GTA they are leading is Davenport, Toronto-Danforth, Parkdale High-Park. Spadina-Fort York

To counter the Liberals lead the NDP has launched a new commercial aimed squarely at voters in the GTA and 905

And a major rally tonight attended by 1500 people.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

terrytowel wrote:

wrote this in another thread, but I'm putting it here as well (cause it is the Ontario thread)

According to 308 the Libs are on tracks to sweep all the seats in Etobicoke, Scarborough, Mississauga, Brampton, North York and the Don Valley. But still ten weeks left alot of fluidity anything can happen.

The only seats in the GTA they are leading is Davenport, Toronto-Danforth, Parkdale High-Park. Spadina-Fort York

To counter the Liberals lead the NDP has launched a new commercial aimed squarely at voters in the GTA and 905

And a major rally tonight attended by 1500 people.

Can someone tranlate this into seats for me? What does this mean for the NDP? Has the NDP support tanked now? Help please. Thanks.

terrytowel

Election polling numbers in Ontario

Nanos, Leger and Forum have Liberals 10 points ahead of the NDP in Ontario

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls-ontario/

Two weeks ago the NDP tried to blitz ridings over the Liberals support of C51. That didn't seem to make a dent. Hence this new commercial aimed squarely at the GTA & 905. And more rallys like the one tonight attracting 1500 people.

quizzical

interesting info re Hamilton. thanks.

terrytowel

According to 308.com the NDP will sweep Hamilton

Stockholm

308 projections at the individual riding level are 100% GARBAGE. He just crudely applies a province wide swing based on polling averages to the results of the 2011 election. Its a very blunt instrument that take no consideration whatsoever of the fact that some parts of Ontario are swing one way and other parts are swing other ways...a lot of people have this crazy misconception that 308 does actual individual riding polls in all 308 ridings - it does not.

I think the seat projection model is of some value at the national level but at the individual riding level it is worthless.

Geoff

Is 308 the only pollster that tracks individual ridings?

terrytowel

Exept that Nanos, Leger and Forum have Liberals 10 points ahead of the NDP in Ontario

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls-ontario/

Which explains why the NDP is doubing its efforts in the GTA & 905 with an ad that focuses on that area.

So obviously 308.com individual polling is not that far off if the NDP is doubling down on the GTA

NorthReport

308, is part of the Liberal media complex as is the CBC, Abacus, Bruce Anderson, EKOS, Frank Graves, Forum, National News Watch, Toronto Star, and has an abysmal track record.

 

terrytowel

NorthReport wrote:

308, is part of the Liberal media complex as is the CBC, Abacus, Bruce Anderson, EKOS, Frank Graves, Forum, National News Watch, Toronto Star, and has an abysmal track record.

Is there a polling firm that you consider completely non-partisan?

DaveW

Chrystia Freeland gets washback from her Reuters days ...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-hopeful-chrystia-freeland-oversa...

A high-profile federal Liberal candidate campaigning in Toronto on a platform of restoring the middle class oversaw the decision to move two dozen full-time media jobs from that city to India.

Chrystia Freeland was the head of Reuters Digital in New York when Thompson Reuters moved its Toronto digital newsroom to New York and shipped the bulk of its work to the Bangalore operation.

The December 2011 move put about 25 Toronto staff under Freeland's supervision out of work, including 17 permanent and five temporary unionized employees.

Thomson Reuters won't say how many employees remain — only that the company has "a fully staffed and functioning newsroom in Toronto."

 

 

bekayne

Geoff wrote:

Is 308 the only pollster that tracks individual ridings?

They're not tracking, they're projecting national polling onto individual ridings

Stockholm

Geoff wrote:

Is 308 the only pollster that tracks individual ridings?

For the hundred millionth time - 308 is NOT a pollster. He just takes other peoples polls averages them and projects the "swing" to the 2011 election results. Get it through your heads people 308 DOES NOT CONDUCT ANY POLLS PERIOD!

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

Geoff wrote:

Is 308 the only pollster that tracks individual ridings?

For the hundred millionth time - 308 is NOT a pollster. He just takes other peoples polls averages them and projects the "swing" to the 2011 election results. Get it through your heads people 308 DOES NOT CONDUCT ANY POLLS PERIOD!

Eric Grenier official title on CBC Power and Politics is CBC poll analyst.

terrytowel

btw it is no surprise that all three party leaders are campaigning HARD in Ontario today as both the NDP and CPC try to put a dent into the Libs double digit lead in that province.

Aristotleded24

Perhaps it's time for the NDP to focus on holding Quebec and making whatever gains it can in BC and the Prairies, and leave Ontario alone. Under the right circumstances, it is possible for Canada to elect a different government than what Ontario wants.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Perhaps it's time for the NDP to focus on holding Quebec and making whatever gains it can in BC and the Prairies, and leave Ontario alone. Under the right circumstances, it is possible for Canada to elect a different government than what Ontario wants.

I'm sure there's still plenty of time for Ontario voters to change their minds. In my opinion there's still a very good chance the NDP will finish first in Ontario, both in popular vote, and seats.

Pondering

I'm delighted Trudeau has bounced back in Ontario but I don't get it. I don't really follow Ontario politics that much but I thought Wynne wasn't doing very well and didn't understand why Trudeau was associating himself with her so much.

Aristotle, many in Quebec are voting Harper out, and while they would prefer Mulcair, Trudeau is also highly thought of. 

Duceppe is blaming the NDP and Liberals for splitting the vote outside Quebec. Quebecers, at the moment, think the NDP is their best shot at getting rid of Harper. They won't switch soon, but if we come close to the election and the Liberals are ahead more Quebec seats could go Liberal. 

 

Stockholm

The Liberals do not have a double digit lead in Ontario - in fact I hear that Ekos tomorrow will show no Liberal lead at all in ontario

swallow swallow's picture

Pondering wrote:

Aristotle, many in Quebec are voting Harper out, and while they would prefer Mulcair, Trudeau is also highly thought of.

Clearly we move in very different circles. I have not heard anyone say a good word about Trudeau! Those who plan to vote Liberal keep talking about "the team."

Quote:
Quebecers, at the moment, think the NDP is their best shot at getting rid of Harper. They won't switch soon, but if we come close to the election and the Liberals are ahead more Quebec seats could go Liberal.

Agreed entirely. 

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

The Liberals do not have a double digit lead in Ontario - in fact I hear that Ekos tomorrow will show no Liberal lead at all in ontario

Election polling numbers in Ontario

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls-ontario/

Only Forum has the NDP ahead of the Libs (and we all know about Forum reputation here on babble)

Nanos - Libs 41.4 NDP 20.5

Léger Marketing -  Libs 37 NDP 27

Ekos - Libs 33 NDP 23 (see link below for Ekos)

http://linkis.com/www.ekospolitics.com/wQGo4

Ipsos Reid - Libs 36 NDP 28 (okay not double digit lead but 8 points)

So with the exception of Forum three polling firms show the Libs AHEAD of the NDP by double digits. With one polling firm showing a lead by 8 points

So there is no dispiute that the Libs are ahead of the NDP by double digits.

terrytowel

DP

terrytowel

Pondering wrote:

I'm delighted Trudeau has bounced back in Ontario but I don't get it. I don't really follow Ontario politics that much but I thought Wynne wasn't doing very well and didn't understand why Trudeau was associating himself with her so much.

She is not popular in rural Ontario (which drags down her numbers) but is popular where Trudeau needs it the most. The GTA and the 905, which is her base and got her a majority government. I suspect some in Ontario see her working better with Trudeau to get Ontario back on track. Hence her fights with Stephen Harper, which is a dog whistle to progressive voters that she would work better with Trudeau.

Stockholm

More recent polling by Ekos has liberal support crashing in Ontario and you will see similar numbers from other pollsters very soon.

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