Federal election - 2015 (Ontario)

296 posts / 0 new
Last post
bekayne

Stockholm wrote:
More recent polling by Ekos has liberal support crashing in Ontario and you will see similar numbers from other pollsters very soon.

Yeah, here's that "crash" as documented by EKOS:

Aug 14: 28%//Aug 28: 33%//Sep 4: 34%//Sep 11: 33%

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:
More recent polling by Ekos has liberal support crashing in Ontario and you will see similar numbers from other pollsters very soon.

Think again. Most recent Ekos Poll Sept 2 - 8 - Libs 33 % to NDP 23% in Ontario

Stockholm

Ekos is in field every day and they have paying clients who see the more up to date stuff. The numbers they put out publicly are always a few days out of date and is collected as much as 9 days earlier.

Results from the last few days are apparently quite different from the week old stuff they released yesterday...and the trend is bad for the Liberals, especially in Ontario

mark_alfred

Hmm.  Interesting if true.  When Trudeau first announced his deficit plans in late August, things seemed dire with market news from China.  However, people may be having second thoughts about this now.  It will be interesting to see the next poll.

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:
..and the trend is bad for the Liberals, especially in Ontario

MainStreet just came out with a poll of decided voters in Toronto.

The Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP with the exception of Downtown Toronto.

GTA - Libs - 45% NDP - 27%

Scarborough - Libs - 47% NDP - 26%

North York - Libs - 46% NDP - 16%

Etobicoke - Libs - 42% - NDP - 13%

Downtown Toronto - Libs 37% - NDP - 44%

That 7% lead the NDP has over the Libs in DT Toronto is a probably a result of their strength in ridings like Toronto-Danforth, Davenport and Parkdale-High Park.

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-in-toronto-trail-downtown/

Sean in Ottawa

terrytowel wrote:

Stockholm wrote:
..and the trend is bad for the Liberals, especially in Ontario

MainStreet just came out with a poll of decided voters in Toronto.

The Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP with the exception of Downtown Toronto.

GTA - Libs - 45% NDP - 27%

Scarborough - Libs - 47% NDP - 26%

North York - Libs - 46% NDP - 16%

Etobicoke - Libs - 42% - NDP - 13%

Downtown Toronto - Libs 37% - NDP - 44%

That 7% lead the NDP has over the Libs in DT Toronto is a probably a result of their strength in ridings like Toronto-Danforth, Davenport and Parkdale-High Park.

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-lead-in-toronto-trail-downtown/

Mainstreet is a farce. They do not use representative sample and have published the most insane outlier so far this election with CPC at 40%.

Stockholm

Since most of the NDP seats and prospective seats in Toronto are in the old city of Toronto, all that really matters is being ahead in that area, at 44% support the NDP would easily hold Nash, Cash, Scott and Kellways seats and win spadina Fort York back and pick up Toronto Centre and university-rosedale...the Liberals would win St. Paul's and the parts of don valley west and eglinton Lawrence that are in north toronto. I'm not sure if they lump east York and York in with the old city of Toronto or what

Pondering

Thanks for the explanation T&T.

Ciabatta2

Mainstreet may be a joke but going around Toronto the Liberals are killing it, lots of volunteers, lots of door knocking, lots of signage particularly in some big NDP neighbourhoods.  Certainly not what I would have predicted.  I'd say the Mainstreet numbers may not be founded in good stats but they are not far off.

terrytowel

The Liberals are employing techniques that won Obama TWO Presidential races. Using the exact same software, door knocking techniques and information gathering. Which explains why momentum is showing up in the polls. They are relying hevily on anayltics. Both the Cons & NDP have taken a pass on this type of targeting.

Sean in Ottawa

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Mainstreet may be a joke but going around Toronto the Liberals are killing it, lots of volunteers, lots of door knocking, lots of signage particularly in some big NDP neighbourhoods.  Certainly not what I would have predicted.  I'd say the Mainstreet numbers may not be founded in good stats but they are not far off.

Like I said -- this was predictable. Any faltering by the CPC would give the Liebrals momentum -- and that could take them past the NDP grabbing back anti-CPC votes from them as well.

This is the only storyline for a Liberal victory.

People criticized the CPC for attacking Trudeau when he was third but they also know that the Liberals and they are in for a grudge match: a win is government and a tie is an NDP government. They each need a significant loss for the other and are best positionned to benefit from one.

Stockholm

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Mainstreet may be a joke but going around Toronto the Liberals are killing it, lots of volunteers, lots of door knocking, lots of signage particularly in some big NDP neighbourhoods.  Certainly not what I would have predicted.  I'd say the Mainstreet numbers may not be founded in good stats but they are not far off.

I don't know what parta of Toronto you are in but i have ridden my bike from High Park to the beaches and all across the old City of Toronto its forest of NDP signs and I would conservatively estimate that you see at least three NDP signs for every Liberal sign.

Jacob Two-Two

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I'd say the Mainstreet numbers may not be founded in good stats but they are not far off.

Well, you'd be dead wrong. Polls aren't accidentally accurate. Mainstreet is obviously push-polling, and has no credibility. Might as well take your cues from tea leaves. Or worse, Forum.

ctrl190

Chow gets a a "sort of" endorsement. Although it might mean a few votes in TCHC housing like Alexandra Park.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/12/rob-ford-rooting-for-harper-andchow

 

terrytowel

ctrl190 wrote:

Chow gets a a "sort of" endorsement. Although it might mean a few votes in TCHC housing like Alexandra Park.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/12/rob-ford-rooting-for-harper-andchow

I mentioned in the by-election thread a few years ago Ford Nation/Toronto Sun readers in Trinity Spadina were backing Adam Vaughan. For the simple reason they wanted Vaughan out of City Hall once and for all. And that he never come back.

Now these Toronto Sun/Ford Nation supporters might support Olivia Chow in Spadina-Fort York to oust Adam Vaughan in Parliment. But will that drive anti-Ford supporters to throw their weight behind Vaughan? As they would vote against anything that Ford endorses?

They are a microscopic number in Spadina-Fort York, but they might tip the balance in Chow favor. As the race between these two are very tight.

swallow swallow's picture

Quote:
Asked who he’d rather see win, Ford laughed.

“I’ll donate to Olivia Chow’s campaign,” he said. “I can’t stand Adam Vaughan, can’t stand that guy.”

 

Laughing

Stockholm

The Liberals are in deep trouble in Ontario - Ekos, Nanos and Abacus all have the CPC leading them and it will likely get worse for the Liberals - if they lose Ontario to the CPC and Quebec to the NDP, there is zero chance of Justin ever being PM.

terrytowel

In a matter of days the 10 point lead the Liberals had over the NDP is gone. But they are still ahead of the NDP. If the NDP can just move AHEAD of the Liberals in Ontario they would win the election. That is the only thing blocking the NDP from victory. If it can just trying to convince stubborn Ontario Liberals to switch their vote to NDP in that province, Mulcair would win the election.

Ciabatta2

terrytowel wrote:

ctrl190 wrote:

Chow gets a a "sort of" endorsement. Although it might mean a few votes in TCHC housing like Alexandra Park.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/12/rob-ford-rooting-for-harper-andchow

I mentioned in the by-election thread a few years ago Ford Nation/Toronto Sun readers in Trinity Spadina were backing Adam Vaughan. For the simple reason they wanted Vaughan out of City Hall once and for all. And that he never come back.

Now these Toronto Sun/Ford Nation supporters might support Olivia Chow in Spadina-Fort York to oust Adam Vaughan in Parliment. But will that drive anti-Ford supporters to throw their weight behind Vaughan? As they would vote against anything that Ford endorses?

They are a microscopic number in Spadina-Fort York, but they might tip the balance in Chow favor. As the race between these two are very tight.

One of the things Chow has going for her is that Vaughan is just as polarizing.

 

Brachina

terrytowel wrote:

In a matter of days the 10 point lead the Liberals had over the NDP is gone. But they are still ahead of the NDP. If the NDP can just move AHEAD of the Liberals in Ontario they would win the election. That is the only thing blocking the NDP from victory. If it can just trying to convince stubborn Ontario Liberals to switch their vote to NDP in that province, Mulcair would win the election.

 I've seen no evidence that the race is tight, Olivia Chow has brutally dominated in every poll against Adam. People want they're real MP back, Adam Vaughan is just a temp, holding the seat warm for Chow.

terrytowel

Harper’s Toronto prospects dimmer minus Ford factor

Regarding the CPC breakthrough in the GTA

“I don’t want to sound conceited but I endorsed, when I was mayor, Stephen Harper — and I think that had a lot to do with it,” Rob Ford said in an Aug. 20 interview.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/09/14/harpers-toronto-prospects-...

mark_alfred

terrytowel wrote:

In a matter of days the 10 point lead the Liberals had over the NDP is gone. But they are still ahead of the NDP. If the NDP can just move AHEAD of the Liberals in Ontario they would win the election. That is the only thing blocking the NDP from victory. If it can just trying to convince stubborn Ontario Liberals to switch their vote to NDP in that province, Mulcair would win the election.

Really?  I haven't noticed any huge change from the last polls I looked at.  Which polls are you referring to?

Regardless, I agree that to beat the Cons, it would be best for Ontario to join the ranks of Quebec and BC.  I don't see either Quebec or BC going Liberal, so if Ontario could just get over its reticence toward the NDP and jump on board, it would be best. And I prefer the NDP, making it another reason why it would be best IMO.  Higher corporate taxes, taxing stock options, reducing capital gains tax exemptions, etc., seem a better way to fund gov't spending rather than through Liberal divestments/deficits.

terrytowel

mark_alfred wrote:

Really?  I haven't noticed any huge change from the last polls I looked at.  Which polls are you referring to?

Ekos, Nanos and Abacus

They still lead over the NDP, but that lead has shruken. The NDP has narrowed the gap in Ontario.

terrytowel

According to Forum (which we take with a grain if salt here on Rabble) the Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP (except in Downtown Toronto)

GTA

Liberal (41%),

Conservative (31%).

NDP (24%)

Green (4%)

Suburbs

Liberals (43%)

Conservatives (33%)

NDP (20%)

Downtown Toronto

Liberals (38%)

NDP (31%)

Conservatives (26%)

Peel and Halton regions, the Liberals score close to one half the votes (45% and 44%, respectively), while the Conservatives post their best result in York Region (39%). The NDP does relatively poorly across the GTA (Durham - 23%, York - 14%, Halton - 16%, Peel - 24%) and posts their best score in downtown Toronto (40%). The Conservative Party leads only in the former city of North York (50%).

Read more at: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1381/conservatives-second-ndp-third/

KarlL

terrytowel wrote:

According to Forum (which we take with a grain if salt here on Rabble) the Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP (except in Downtown Toronto)

Read more at: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1381/conservatives-second-ndp-third/

 

Are you saying that this is a warmed-over regional sub-sample from Forum's poll the other day? 

mark_alfred

Even more disconcerting about Ontario is that the Conservatives are in the lead (37%), the Liberals are second (31%) and the NDP trail (24%).

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1378/conservative-minority-projected/

Stockholm

terrytowel wrote:

According to Forum (which we take with a grain if salt here on Rabble) the Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP (except in Downtown Toronto)

Downtown Toronto

Liberals (38%)

NDP (31%)

Conservatives (26%)

What you are referring to as "downtown Toronto" here is actually the entire City of Toronto including Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York (as well as the old City of Toronto. Its worth noting that in 2011 the popular vote across the City of Toronto was CPC 34, Libs 32, NDP 30. So what this poll tells me is that the Liberals have regained some support from the Conservatives which will help them win back seats in North York and Etobicoke...but NDP supportr is still as stronger or stronger than it was in 2011 - and of course in most of the NDP seats in the old city of Toronto Conservative support was so low to begin with in 2011 that there isnt much to pick up for the Liberals. If this pattern held, I suspect that the NDP would win every seat from Parkdale-High Park across to Beaches-East York (7 seats) as well as York South-Weston and then it would be a tossup on what would happen in the Scarborough seats, while the Liberals would likely annhilate the Tories in the rest of the city and we could say goodbye to Mark Adler and Joe Oliver etc....could be worse!

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

According to Forum (which we take with a grain if salt here on Rabble) the Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP (except in Downtown Toronto)

Downtown Toronto

Liberals (38%)

NDP (31%)

Conservatives (26%)

What you are referring to as "downtown Toronto" here is actually the entire City of Toronto including Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York (as well as the old City of Toronto.

You left out this part of my post

Suburbs

Liberals (43%)

Conservatives (33%)

NDP (20%)

Both the Liberals (43%) and Conservatives (33%) do better in the surrounding GTA than in Toronto (38% and 26%, respectively), while the NDP is more popular in Toronto (31%) than in the suburb (20%).

Stockholm

I don't care about the 905 suburbs, it's all an NDP dead zone with the exception of Oshawa and Brampton east. The NDP has nothing to lose in that area.

Northern PoV

Stockholm wrote:
I don't care about the 905 suburbs, it's all an NDP dead zone with the exception of Oshawa and Brampton east. The NDP has nothing to lose in that area.

 "don't care"? ... surely you'd urge NDP supporters in an "NDP dead zone" to vote efficiently ie for the Libs.

Just as we should urge Libs to vote efficiently for the NDP in Lib dead zones.  

It is the only way we will transend our fptp clusterf**k in 2015.

Or are you so partisan you'd rather another Harper gov't?  Like Cameron in UK who somehow won a majority in a "tied election".

Like 2011.

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:
I don't care about the 905 suburbs, it's all an NDP dead zone with the exception of Oshawa and Brampton east. The NDP has nothing to lose in that area.

The NDP just said "If Trudeau can't win in Papineau, how can he defeat Stephen Harper?"

Robo

Stockholm wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

According to Forum (which we take with a grain if salt here on Rabble) the Liberals continue their double digit lead over the NDP (except in Downtown Toronto)

Downtown Toronto

Liberals (38%)

NDP (31%)

Conservatives (26%)

What you are referring to as "downtown Toronto" here is actually the entire City of Toronto including Scarborough, Etobicoke and North York (as well as the old City of Toronto. Its worth noting that in 2011 the popular vote across the City of Toronto was CPC 34, Libs 32, NDP 30. So what this poll tells me is that the Liberals have regained some support from the Conservatives which will help them win back seats in North York and Etobicoke...but NDP supportr is still as stronger or stronger than it was in 2011 - and of course in most of the NDP seats in the old city of Toronto Conservative support was so low to begin with in 2011 that there isnt much to pick up for the Liberals. ...!

As noted by others, I too have less faith in Forum polls than others. In the "GTA poll" released on Sept 18th, one can see how Forum "overclaims" in its press releases. If you read the full release, it states on its third page that, 19 time out of twenty, the results "of the total sample" are plus/minus 3 percent. Note: "of the total sample". If there was any doubt, the GTA sample size listed is the exact total of the sum of the sample sizes for Durham, York, Peel, and Halton.

So, when it starts making claims later in the press release about a subset of results in Halton based on sampling only 93 voters for example, anyone who has ever analyzed or designed social science polling before would make those Halton results plus/minus 18% at the very least. Forum fails to say such things about different polling standards, even though they can do the same calculations that I once did on quantitative analysis in social sciences classes.

In short: Forum overclaims what it own polling shows, and purposely omits important information that would make its reliability better understood. Take it with a grain of salt.

With that grain of salt taken, the poll does show the NDP support lower in Halton and York than in Durham and Peel, as Stockholm suggested was likely to be true. Higher and lower I will accept in these circumstances -- 23% versus 17% in such subsets I will not accept as being reliable.

Terry, the press release states the NDP leads in downtown Toronto with 40%.  That is not what you wrote in your posting above.  The Forum press release does not state all of the subsamples within Toronto, but does refer to the NDP being at 40% in Downtown Toronto and the Conservatives being at 50% in North York.  Your title above is as misleading as Forum.

mark_alfred

Forum poll wrote:
The NDP does relatively poorly across the GTA (Durham - 23%, York - 14%, Halton - 16%, Peel - 24%) and posts their best score in downtown Toronto (40%).

terrytowel wrote:

Downtown Toronto

NDP (31%)

There seems to be a 9 point difference in the two quotes above regarding downtown Toronto.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Terrytowel, you said you were voting Green months and months ago. Yet all you posts on here are LPC shilling. Don't you think its time you admitted you're actually a Liberal, and have always only voted Liiberal and drop his nonsensical insistence you are voting Green? And, don't you think its time for you to admit to us that you hate the NDP and love Trudeau?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I haven't posted for a long time. I've been watching as this place had become simply one more forum for Liberals to spread propaganda. Federal election? Debate? Polling? How can you have any kind of diiscussion on here when Liiberals won't even admit that Mulcair owned the last debate and clobbered Trudeau? All we get is your shilling, and comlaints that NDP supporters are simply too partisan and won't admit the "truth". Well you guys ought to look in the mirror. This was a very different website in 2010. It was vibratn, full on intelligent and thoughtful discussion, and then the Libs finished third. They picked a new leader, and you Libs came out of the wood work. You have to own the conversation, you can't help yourselves. And as a result you guys have wrecked this place. Its become useless. Look, do e a favor. If Trudeau becomes PM, promise you'll all go away and leave this place to people who actaully want to engage in thoughtfull discourse.. OK?

terrytowel

DP

terrytowel

Robo wrote:

Terry, the press release states the NDP leads in downtown Toronto with 40%.  That is not what you wrote in your posting above.  The Forum press release does not state all of the subsamples within Toronto, but does refer to the NDP being at 40% in Downtown Toronto and the Conservatives being at 50% in North York.  Your title above is as misleading as Forum.

Sorry I got mixed up, first they say

NDP lags in GTA Both the Liberals (43%) and Conservatives (33%) do better in the surrounding GTA than in Toronto (38% and 26%, respectively), while the NDP is more popular in Toronto (31%) than in the suburb (20%).

Then they say

The NDP does relatively poorly across the GTA (Durham - 23%, York - 14%, Halton - 16%, Peel - 24%) and posts their best score in downtown Toronto (40%).

I was confusing Toronto (GTA) (31%) vs Downtown Toronto (40%). I mixed up my "Torontos". My mistake. I wish Forum would just rank them, instead of this confusing it in this paragraph format. Or even in graphs.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1381/conservatives-second-ndp-third/

Robo

terrytowel wrote:

I was confusing Toronto (GTA) (31%) vs Downtown Toronto (40%). I mixed up my "Torontos". My mistake. I wish Forum would just rank them, instead of this confusing it in this paragraph format. Or even in graphs.

You are still confusing Toronto again by writing "Toronto (GTA) 31%".  An accurate wording would be "Toronto (City) 31%" or simply "Toronto 31%".

Forum should never publish Downtown and North York subsamples IMHO, in text or graph or any other form, for the reasons I wrote above.  Subsamples that have margins of error of 10% or more lose any meaning and should be published only if the author is willing to acknowledge that huge margin of error with such subsamples.  Forum, instead, only states a total margin of error rate and then goes on to report subsample results without the parallel margin of error statement for its subsamples. 

Nanos, by contrast, gives the margin of error for every provincial subsample.  Ekos at least has the decency to put an asterisk next to those of its subsamples that are based on a sample size too small to give those results the degree of credence of claimed for their overall polling results. 

A freaking asterisk is the minimum that I ask to earn my respect in polling. 

 

terrytowel
Brachina

 Its the Wynne stupidity all over again. I can't believe people in Ontario are buying into the Liberals are progressive BS put out by the media, Harper spent way more when it comes to deficits then Trudeau proposes to. Maybe Harper is really the most leftwing leader running if we concede to the stupidity being promoted that the Liberals are to the left of the NDP now. We were told that lie before and we ended up with Hydro Privatization. When I will progressives in Ontario learn from they're mistakes.

takeitslowly

ontarians are not stupid, they are just conservative lite.

Brachina

 I don't mean all Ontarians, I just mean the ones who fall for the old liberal bait and switch again.

felixr

Trudeau is way overdue for one of his famous gaffes. He tends to do them when he is speaking off the cuff (and at ease). A new tactic might be to pose questions to him, perhaps in the debate. He has mastered the flounder, can he loose another gaffe? THe question would have to be something he would look terrible for not answering, but also something that might knock him off script and force him to improvise. I wish I had a highlight reel of all his gaffes so that I could see where it is that he seems to get in to the most trouble. It seems to be in his frat boy moments announcing charity boxing matches or speaking at "ladies only" nights.

Another thing that strikes me as a potential game changer is if the Alberta NDP were to come through with a fiscal update that were well received. The fact that they have not released a budget pre-election but have raised taxes several times, makes them look weak. They have also stepped on their first toes. If the Alberta NDP delivers a well-received update then it reminds all of Canada why they started getting behind the NDP again over the summer and it drowns out Trudeau who is currently benefitting from a psychophantic media chorus of "wow, he doesn't sound nearly as stupid as he has in the past." One thing that strikes me as particularly odd is the lack of a strong Conservative message at this point in the campaign. Harper is just hanging back and letting the opposition attack eachother, and I assume the Conservatives still have tons of money to spend. 

terrytowel

felixr wrote:

Trudeau is way overdue for one of his famous gaffes.

He already has http://rabble.ca/babble/election-2015/desmond-cole-accuses-justin-trudea...

Brachina

 I don't mean all Ontarians, I just mean the ones who fall for the old liberal bait and switch again.

KarlL

Psychophantic?  Was that an intentional neologism, felixr?

felixr

KarlL wrote:

Psychophantic?  Was that an intentional neologism, felixr?

Lol, no. I can't spell worth a damn.

KarlL

felixr wrote:

KarlL wrote:

Psychophantic?  Was that an intentional neologism, felixr?

Lol, no. I can't spell worth a damn.

Coz' it's a pretty good one.

mark_alfred

I'm glad to read that she is taking action to rectify this situation.  Good to see someone confront rather than run away from a mistake, and to admit that she's got some learning to do.  I suspect she'll be a great MP when elected.  Article:  NDP candidate Alex Johnstone promises to learn more about Holocaust

ctrl190

A Toronto Liberal organizer refuses to endorse Freeland, writes a scathing critique of her constituency work:

In all of my relations with her and her office, I honestly do not believe that she even cares about her constituents. Having personally been involved in events in her riding where her constituents needed and requested help from her and where that help was really not delivered, I am conscious of how damaging it could be if we elect her here in University-Rosedale

[...]

This lack of compassion does not appear to be limited to just one community. I mean, for Christ's sake, she ran on a platform of income inequality and in a riding that contains some neighboorhoods where residents really need assistance, she moved her constituency office to maybe the richest in Canada. And everything else that I have seen from her – be in on Facebook, emails to supporters, etc. - has just reinforced that she doesnt care.

 

https://www.facebook.com/jason.dumelie.7/posts/10156084425090504

Pages