Federal election - 2015 (Ontario)

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terrytowel

Meanwhile past NDP candidate, street nurse & homelessness advocate, Cathy Crowe has walked over to the dark side. She has endorsed Adam Vaughan OVER Olivia Chow saying

"I could never have done my street nursing work or housing advocacy work without Adam's help over the last 20 yrs. He was always there. His passion, creativity and determination to create the housing solution is unmatched. I totally trust that he will be the architect who will build a national housing program.

https://twitter.com/TOAdamVaughan/status/648848717215232000

mark_alfred

I tried the twitter link above, but it says the page doesn't exist.  I did see the news of the endorsement on Vaughan's site, though.

mark_alfred

I think Cathy retracted the endorsement, which is why the tweet no longer exists.  She did tweet the following in response to a Liberal who mentioned her endorsement: (note:  reverse chronological order):

Quote:

    1. CathyCrowe ‏@cathyacrowe Sep 29

      @CetaR I stand by what I said but I am staying out of riding and have not officially endorsed Also not a PHNurse! @TOAdamVaughan

        0 retweets 0 favourites

  1. C Ramkhalawansingh ‏@CetaR Sep 29

    @cathyacrowe @TOAdamVaughan Tks for clarification that it isn't "official"; good to know you stand by what you said. And you are a phenom

    10:17 a.m. - 29 Sep 2015 · Details Hide conversation   0 retweets 0 favourites

  2.   Tweet text Reply to @CetaR @cathyacrowe @TOAdamVaughan 

    1. C Ramkhalawansingh ‏@CetaR Sep 29

      C Ramkhalawansingh Retweeted

      WOW - When @cathyacrowe gives an endorsement, it's a thing! #SpaFY @anabailaoTO #housing A real honour!  https://twitter.com/TOAdamVaughan/status/648848717215232000 …

      C Ramkhalawansingh added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.

Unionist

mark_alfred wrote:

I tried the twitter link above, but it says the page doesn't exist.  I did see the news of the endorsement on Vaughan's site, though.

Here's the Twitter link:

https://twitter.com/TOAdamVaughan/status/648913624417890304

 

mark_alfred

Rogers TV is currently showing a debate with the candidates for Davenport.  This is Andrew Cash for the NDP, Julie Dzerowicz for the Libs, Daniel Stein for the Greens, and some independent guy.  Conservatives never seem to show up for these debates.

mark_alfred

Well the debate is over.  Cash was great.  He reminds me of Tommy Douglas.

mark_alfred

They're showing Spadina Fort York now.  These are repeats, though these are relatively recent.  The Davenport debate was quite entertaining.  It's kinda late, so I'm gonna skip the Chow vs Vaughan match. 

bekayne
ctrl190

mark_alfred wrote:

Well the debate is over.  Cash was great.  He reminds me of Tommy Douglas.

You're not the first one to notice that. He and Murray Rankin should have a Tommy lookalike contest. 

mark_alfred

The NDP are releasing some policy planks today.  One will be a platform specific to Toronto, entitled "Building a Better Toronto". 

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/10/02/ndp-crafts-platform-geared-t...

Quote:

The platform takes some of the promises from the NDP's national platform and breaks down what it would mean for Toronto.

For instance, it promises $12.9 billion over 20 years for Toronto transit infrastructure. And it promises to create 165,000 $15-a-day child care spaces in the city.

ctrl190

How is the NDP doing in Northern Ontario? Between Quebec and BC it's probably the NDP's strongest regional base. Does Howard Hampton look good in Kenora?

KarlL

ctrl190 wrote:

How is the NDP doing in Northern Ontario? Between Quebec and BC it's probably the NDP's strongest regional base. Does Howard Hampton look good in Kenora?

The recent polls run through TCTC and 308 would have him trailing both the the Conservative and Liberal candidates but I don't think they can really account for Hampton's popularity in the riding.  Being swing polls they are always based in large part on the performance of the 2011 candidates, adjusted for current party standings in the polls.  The fact that the Liberal and NDP candidate have around 60% of the vote between them bodes well for Howard, I'd say, given his profile there.

mark_alfred

The NDP released the specific commitments they'll be making to Toronto in Building a Better Toronto platform:  http://andrewthomson.ndp.ca/sites/default/files/multisite/682449/field_c...

From it: 

Quote:

Among the commitments included in Building a Better Toronto, an NDP government will:

  • Invest $12.9 billion over the next 20 years in GTA transit infrastructure;
  • Create or maintain 165,000 affordable childcare spaces across the GTA;
  • Reverse Conservative healthcare cuts and fight climate change with a cap-and-trade system;
  • Support Toronto’s arts and culture sector and implement income-averaging for cultural workers;
  • Make college and university more accessible with increased federal grants and phased-out interest on student loans;
  • Reduce the backlog in processing immigration applications; and
  • Protect rights and freedoms with the repeal of Bill C-51.

Debater

NDP support seems to be collapsing in Ontario since all polling (even from the NDP-leaning EKOS) agrees that NDP is in 3rd place.

While I think the media should be cautious in writing off the NDP's chances, it is clear that the bump in support that Mulcair got from Rachel Notley going into the Summer has subsided.

There clearly is not an Orange Wave in Ontario this year.

Ciabatta2

Been observing sign ratios through my work routes over the past month.

Certainly not scientific but not a zoom-through opinion either - done lots of driving in residential neihgbourhoods in all these places

Brantford - 60 Con / 25 NDP / 15 LIB - the Conservative guy is cleaning up

Hamilton Centre - NDP 60 to a supririsingly strong Liberal 40.  Honestly a big surprise (although Hamilton gentrification is happening mostly in this riding - boy has it changed in the last six years)

Hamilton Mountain - Strong NDP, although this is riding I've visited the least - only three shifts

Milton - I think Lisa Raitt is in the lead, but there is a strong Liberal campaign too.  This place is an example why signs should not be allowed on public property.  Ugh.  Tacky. Wasteful. Ugly.  What a turnoff.

Ancaster-Hamilton West-Westdale-Whatchamacallit - Signs are predominantly Liberal, strangely weak Conservative signage, the NDP has a presence in Dundas though but nowhere else

Burlington - Almost no signs up anywhere, but those that are up are 50/50 Liberal-Conservative

Etobicoke Centre - Really tight between Liberals and Conservatives

Beaches - 60/40 Lib to NDP

Davenport - 65/35 Liberal to NDP, this place is littered with signs, even residential routes.  North end is a disaster for NDP although many houses are known in this area to put up signs regardless of voting intentions.  Surprising amounts (and sizes) of Green signs (though no chance of winning.)

St. Paul's - 60/40 NDP to Liberal (yes, really NDP to Liberal.  yes, really.) with a smattering of Conservatives.  Surprisingly weak Liberal signage here.  What is up with that?  Although sign predominance may not be reflected in votes on election day

Parkdale - 60/40 NDP to Liberal

York South West - NDP predominates in the parts closest to the Junction, the Liberals cleaning up everywhere else.  Maybe 70/30 Liberal to NDP

Eglinton Lawrence - tough to say, so many multi-sign houses.  Probably 50/35/15 Lib-Con-NDP.  Fewer NDP signs than last election

Scarborough South - 40/40/20 NDP-Liberal-Conservative. NDP surprisingly strong.

Oshawa - strangely decent showing for Liberals.  Three way (sign) race.

 

 

KarlL

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Been observing sign ratios through my work routes over the past month.

Certainly not scientific but not a zoom-through opinion either - done lots of driving in residential neihgbourhoods in all these places

Brantford - 60 Con / 25 NDP / 15 LIB - the Conservative guy is cleaning up

Hamilton Centre - NDP 60 to a supririsingly strong Liberal 40.  Honestly a big surprise (although Hamilton gentrification is happening mostly in this riding - boy has it changed in the last six years)

Hamilton Mountain - Strong NDP, although this is riding I've visited the least - only three shifts

Milton - I think Lisa Raitt is in the lead, but there is a strong Liberal campaign too.  This place is an example why signs should not be allowed on public property.  Ugh.  Tacky. Wasteful. Ugly.  What a turnoff.

Ancaster-Hamilton West-Westdale-Whatchamacallit - Signs are predominantly Liberal, strangely weak Conservative signage, the NDP has a presence in Dundas though but nowhere else

Burlington - Almost no signs up anywhere, but those that are up are 50/50 Liberal-Conservative

Etobicoke Centre - Really tight between Liberals and Conservatives

Beaches - 60/40 Lib to NDP

Davenport - 65/35 Liberal to NDP, this place is littered with signs, even residential routes.  North end is a disaster for NDP although many houses are known in this area to put up signs regardless of voting intentions.  Surprising amounts (and sizes) of Green signs (though no chance of winning.)

St. Paul's - 60/40 NDP to Liberal (yes, really NDP to Liberal.  yes, really.) with a smattering of Conservatives.  Surprisingly weak Liberal signage here.  What is up with that?  Although sign predominance may not be reflected in votes on election day

Parkdale - 60/40 NDP to Liberal

York South West - NDP predominates in the parts closest to the Junction, the Liberals cleaning up everywhere else.  Maybe 70/30 Liberal to NDP

Eglinton Lawrence - tough to say, so many multi-sign houses.  Probably 50/35/15 Lib-Con-NDP.  Fewer NDP signs than last election

Scarborough South - 40/40/20 NDP-Liberal-Conservative. NDP surprisingly strong.

Oshawa - strangely decent showing for Liberals.  Three way (sign) race.

 

 

I'm surprised by your take on Beaches-East York.  Both Matthew Kellway and Nate Erskine-Smith got an early start sign-wise but Kellway dominated in the early going and although Smith has closed some of the gap, there is still an NDP edge from what I see, perhaps 60:40.

I'm a former campaign sign chair so it always interests me but I am not sure how much it really means. Traditionally, the NDP did better in sign ratios than in vote percentages, as the NDP knew where its support was, that support was pretty committed and not afraid to say so, and unions used to send out sign crews.  I don't know if that is true any longer.

I think that Matthew Kellway is now in some trouble in this riding even though he would undoubtedly have won had the vote been held at the high NDP support levels of a month ago.  A lot of it is due to changing demographics as young families move into the Upper Beach and Danforth Village (and the price of housing and the income needed to pay for it escalates). Add that to the Liberals traditional multicultural base in the riding and we saw a Liberal elected provincially for the first time in 2014 after the long Bryden-Lankin-Prue NDP dynasty.

Ciabatta2

My sense was that Kellway was part of that demographic change.  He's no scrapper like Micheal Prue or labour leader like Lankin.  I think he will lose, but due to national trends - but not so demographics.

That was my feeling of the Beaches riding although the majority of my travel was the north and east parts, I did less in and around the parts closer to the Danforth riding.

I don't think signs mean all that much on election day, though they do give a glimpse into the riding dynamics.  They also skew to home owners and not condo owners and renters.  For example, the NDP guy is clearly leading the Liberal woman in St. Paul's signs.  But he will be lucky to crack second on election day.

Unionist

mark_alfred wrote:

The NDP released the specific commitments they'll be making to Toronto in Building a Better Toronto platform:  http://andrewthomson.ndp.ca/sites/default/files/multisite/682449/field_c...

From it: 

Quote:

Among the commitments included in Building a Better Toronto, an NDP government will:

  • Invest $12.9 billion over the next 20 years in GTA transit infrastructure;
  • Create or maintain 165,000 affordable childcare spaces across the GTA; [...]

I need to understand how a federal government can make such promises?

 

Unionist

*bump* How can Andrew Thomson promise things which are purely within provincial jurisdiction?

mark_alfred

Health care is purely a provincial jurisdiction.  How can the NDP promise more doctors?  Liars, I guess.

Cody87

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Davenport - 65/35 Liberal to NDP, this place is littered with signs, even residential routes.  North end is a disaster for NDP although many houses are known in this area to put up signs regardless of voting intentions.  Surprising amounts (and sizes) of Green signs (though no chance of winning.)

I drove through here today, I remember it as closer to 50/50 LPC/NDP but in general I can agree. Especially with the surprising number of green signs.

Quote:
Parkdale - 60/40 NDP to Liberal

The part I drove through was AT LEAST 80/20 NDP to LPC and almost no CPC or green. Even my fiancée who doesn't pay attention to politics at all commented on how dominant the NDP signage in the riding was.

Quote:
Oshawa - strangely decent showing for Liberals.  Three way (sign) race.

Can confirm. If the signs are right, the CPC will come up the middle here due to a bad NDP/LPC split. LPC definitely has more "public property" signs then NDP, but NDP has a small edge on residential properties compared with LPC. CPC is sadly probably more than both...they come in clumps of 3 and 4 in a span of 10 houses which is a lot for Oshawa.

Debater

Ciabatta2 wrote:

I don't think signs mean all that much on election day, though they do give a glimpse into the riding dynamics.  They also skew to home owners and not condo owners and renters.  For example, the NDP guy is clearly leading the Liberal woman in St. Paul's signs.  But he will be lucky to crack second on election day.

"Liberal woman in St. Paul's" = Dr. Carolyn Bennett

"NDP guy" = Noah Richler

Yes, I've heard from St. Paul's that the NDP has more signs than usual there this year.  Seems like Noah Richler is running a visible campaign.  Perhaps he does have more signs out than Dr. Bennett.  But if the polls are right and the NDP is running 3rd in Ontario, it's unlikely they can win a riding like St. Paul's at this point.

Ciabatta2

Cody87 wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Davenport - 65/35 Liberal to NDP, this place is littered with signs, even residential routes.  North end is a disaster for NDP although many houses are known in this area to put up signs regardless of voting intentions.  Surprising amounts (and sizes) of Green signs (though no chance of winning.)

I drove through here today, I remember it as closer to 50/50 LPC/NDP but in general I can agree. Especially with the surprising number of green signs.

Cash had his signs out immediately but many have come down since August.  A colleague lives in this riding supposedly a lot of NDP signs went on private property without permission and that didn't go over well with homeowners.

Debater

David Akin reported that Tom Mulcair visited Davenport today.

He said it could be a bad sign that Mulcair is having to visit an NDP-held riding at this late stage in the campaign.

I had assumed that Davenport would stay NDP this year as well since the Liberals lost it by a large margin in 2011.

However, I suppose it's possible the Liberals could win it back since it was Liberal until 2011 and did go provincially in 2014.

But I had assumed the Liberals would need a federal version of Cristina Martins to win it in 2015.  I didn't think the current Liberal candidate would be enough to overcome the big Liberal drop from 2011, but perhaps it's closer than originally expected.

Ciabatta2

To be fair to Mulcair, while the Liberals were bussing every partisan from the Soo to Windsor for that rally, Mulcair visited something like 5 Conservative-held ridings.

But yes, Cash is in trouble.  It is conceivable that after Oct 19 the NDP is only left with Peggy Nash and Craig Scott in TO.  And there are rumblings that Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is closer than anyone ever thought.  And Thunder Bay ridings and Windsor-Tecumseh are looking dicey too, apparently.

And that's sad, because the NDP's candidates/MPs in Toronto and Hamilton are pretty spectacular.  Most of those Liberal replacements will have the value of paperweights.  Particularly, Bob Bratina in HESC, is a fucking idiot - worst mayor we ever had.

There is a real risk - that only Sean has seemed to catch - that the NDP loses a whack of solid non-Québec incumbents.  Cleary in Nflnd, Leslie, Chisholm, plus some of the Ontario ones - Cash, Marston, Refferty, Rathika, Sullivan, Harris (well, he was always going to lose), the Beaches guy.  Ouch for them.

KarlL

Ciabatta2 wrote:

To be fair to Mulcair, while the Liberals were bussing every partisan from the Soo to Windsor for that rally, Mulcair visited something like 5 Conservative-held ridings.

But yes, Cash is in trouble.  It is conceivable that after Oct 19 the NDP is only left with Peggy Nash and Craig Scott in TO.  And there are rumblings that Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is closer than anyone ever thought.  And Thunder Bay ridings and Windsor-Tecumseh are looking dicey too, apparently.

And that's sad, because the NDP's candidates/MPs in Toronto and Hamilton are pretty spectacular.  Most of those Liberal replacements will have the value of paperweights.  Particularly, Bob Bratina in HESC, is a fucking idiot - worst mayor we ever had.

There is a real risk - that only Sean has seemed to catch - that the NDP loses a whack of solid non-Québec incumbents.  Cleary in Nflnd, Leslie, Chisholm, plus some of the Ontario ones - Cash, Marston, Refferty, Rathika, Sullivan, Harris (well, he was always going to lose), the Beaches guy.  Ouch for them.

I know that your main point is about quality of the MPs.

My worry is that if the NDP does lose ridings like HESC and Windsor-Tecumseh, it won't be to the Liberals.  There is a risk that an NDP collapse, if it occurs, will certainly increase the number of Liberal seats, but will also increase the number of Conservative ones, so on a net basis there will be fewer anti-Harper seats and he is moving ever closer to the majority line.  

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

From the strategic Stop Harper viewpoint, given the latest information, the ridings mentioned in the post below would go like this"

Brantford: Either one Candidate drops out, or Liberal.

Hamilton Centre: NDP by a crushing majority. Forget about losing. But get out and vote.

Hamilton Mountain: NDP by a strong majority, but get the vote out. Tories on your tail.

Milton: Liberals behind Raitt by 10 points. She may be seen as a CPC leader if Harper gets the boot which will give her local cachet.

Ancaster-Hamilton West etc. Liberals 6 points ahead of the Conservatives. NDP in 3rd.

Burlington Another Tory hole. Liberals 12 points behind

Etobicoke Centre - Immaterial

Beaches-East York - Immaterial

Davenport - Immaterial

St. Paul's - Immaterial

Parkdale-High Park - Immaterial

York South West - Immaterial

Eglinton Lawrence - Liberals ahead of Conservatives by 9

Scarborough SW - Immaterial 

Oshawa -  Conservatives ahead of NDP by 14.

Even with the designated stop harper ridings either the Ls or NDPs could win the majority of this sample through the ridings where it is immaterial stop harper. 

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Been observing sign ratios through my work routes over the past month.

Certainly not scientific but not a zoom-through opinion either - done lots of driving in residential neihgbourhoods in all these places

Brantford - 60 Con / 25 NDP / 15 LIB - the Conservative guy is cleaning up

Hamilton Centre - NDP 60 to a supririsingly strong Liberal 40.  Honestly a big surprise (although Hamilton gentrification is happening mostly in this riding - boy has it changed in the last six years)

Hamilton Mountain - Strong NDP, although this is riding I've visited the least - only three shifts

Milton - I think Lisa Raitt is in the lead, but there is a strong Liberal campaign too.  This place is an example why signs should not be allowed on public property.  Ugh.  Tacky. Wasteful. Ugly.  What a turnoff.

Ancaster-Hamilton West-Westdale-Whatchamacallit - Signs are predominantly Liberal, strangely weak Conservative signage, the NDP has a presence in Dundas though but nowhere else

Burlington - Almost no signs up anywhere, but those that are up are 50/50 Liberal-Conservative

Etobicoke Centre - Really tight between Liberals and Conservatives

Beaches - 60/40 Lib to NDP

Davenport - 65/35 Liberal to NDP, this place is littered with signs, even residential routes.  North end is a disaster for NDP although many houses are known in this area to put up signs regardless of voting intentions.  Surprising amounts (and sizes) of Green signs (though no chance of winning.)

St. Paul's - 60/40 NDP to Liberal (yes, really NDP to Liberal.  yes, really.) with a smattering of Conservatives.  Surprisingly weak Liberal signage here.  What is up with that?  Although sign predominance may not be reflected in votes on election day

Parkdale - 60/40 NDP to Liberal

York South West - NDP predominates in the parts closest to the Junction, the Liberals cleaning up everywhere else.  Maybe 70/30 Liberal to NDP

Eglinton Lawrence - tough to say, so many multi-sign houses.  Probably 50/35/15 Lib-Con-NDP.  Fewer NDP signs than last election

Scarborough South - 40/40/20 NDP-Liberal-Conservative. NDP surprisingly strong.

Oshawa - strangely decent showing for Liberals.  Three way (sign) race.

 

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The Liberal signs in Oshawa I am sure are mainly there to discourage NDP supporters. I would strongly back the NDP in Oshawa. No question they are the only ones who have a chance of knocking off the Conservatives there. It's gone so Tory because GM has been gutted, and everyone there now are the angriest suburban communters in Canada. To commute from Oshawa, you now need to leave at 5 AM to make it in on time. All through the trip they are being pounded by AM hate radio on 640 and 1010. A wretched life.

Ciabatta2

KarlL wrote:

I know that your main point is about quality of the MPs.

My worry is that if the NDP does lose ridings like HESC and Windsor-Tecumseh, it won't be to the Liberals.  There is a risk that an NDP collapse, if it occurs, will certainly increase the number of Liberal seats, but will also increase the number of Conservative ones, so on a net basis there will be fewer anti-Harper seats and he is moving ever closer to the majority line.  

I should say that not all the incumbent NDP candidates are amazing but a number are.  Few top Liberals came out for this election so their crop is weak. 

Windsor is a Conservative risk.  Hamilton East not so much - the 2011 Conservative candidate was a popular MPP and councillor and mayoral candidate.  If the NDP loses here this time, it will be to the Liberals.

Debater

montrealer58 wrote:

The Liberal signs in Oshawa I am sure are mainly there to discourage NDP supporters. I would strongly back the NDP in Oshawa. No question they are the only ones who have a chance of knocking off the Conservatives there. It's gone so Tory because GM has been gutted, and everyone there now are the angriest suburban communters in Canada. To commute from Oshawa, you now need to leave at 5 AM to make it in on time. All through the trip they are being pounded by AM hate radio on 640 and 1010. A wretched life.

No, I don't think the Liberal signs in Oshawa are "mainly there to discourage NDP supporters".

I think the reason there are more Liberal signs than usual in Oshawa is simple -- because the Liberal candidate is higher-profile than the last one!  The Lib in Oshawa is a former city councilor and has more name recognition and is running a better campaign than the last Liberal.

It's just like the NDP's Noah Richler is running a more visible campaign than usual in St. Paul's than the last NDP candidate.

These are basically just reflections of local candidate strengths.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Do NOT vote stategically. Libs are Tories in less of a hurry! Vote NDP!

mark_alfred

I'm watching the University Rosedale debate on Rogers.  I think regardless of what happens in the election, I'll be happy if Hollett beats Freeland.  Freeland is the most annoying person on earth, I believe.

Cody87

montrealer58 wrote:

The Liberal signs in Oshawa I am sure are mainly there to discourage NDP supporters. I would strongly back the NDP in Oshawa. No question they are the only ones who have a chance of knocking off the Conservatives there. It's gone so Tory because GM has been gutted, and everyone there now are the angriest suburban communters in Canada. To commute from Oshawa, you now need to leave at 5 AM to make it in on time. All through the trip they are being pounded by AM hate radio on 640 and 1010. A wretched life.

I don't think it's gone so Tory, and certainly not because of the traffic (which is horrid. It's even bad on Saturdays and Sundays now during rush hour). Last election the LPC tanked both nationally and locally, and some of those votes went to the CPC, not just NDP. Colin Carrie won't get 50% of the vote this time, but even 35% will be enough because the NDP isn't going to get that high and the LPC will probably get at least 20% this time around. In short, I agree that the NDP will outperform the LPC here, but disagree that either of the parties will win. This riding is the poster child for ranked ballots and/or STV, although I prefer MMP.

Edit: Not that it's particularly relevant to the overall discussion, but the reason I don't think the traffic helps the CPC is because as the government in power, they are partially responsible (as well as the provincial liberals).

Debater

True, Cody87.

I think Oshawa will be one of the ridings that is an example of 'vote-splitting' in this election.

There will no doubt be a couple dozen other ridings on that list, as well.

Let's just say that on Election Night, Joyce Murray & Nathan Cullen may be proven right about some of this stuff.

Cody87

Debater wrote:

Let's just say that on Election Night, Joyce Murray & Nathan Cullen may be proven right about some of this stuff.

You know, his refusal to formally co-operate with the NDP was the one of two major peeves I had with Trudeau for the longest time (the other was his indefensible support of ranked ballots over true PR). I thought his argument that a merger or formal co-operation (ie: you don't run in these ridings, we don't run in those ridings) would disenfranchise progressive voters and deprive them of choice was a big pile of BS. However, look around you at the posters on this board, and tell me if you think the rabid partisans would support a merged NDP-LPC party. Many NDP'ers hate the LPC party as much, if not more, than the CPC. And there are LPC supporters who would go CPC before they would support a NDP/LPC combination (possibly not here on rabble, but they exist). We'd be left with a two party system, plus the greens. And the truth of the matter is, the right didn't merge. Reform absorbed PC and PC has ceased to exist. The same would happen if the LPC and NDP merged.

So, I think hindsight has actually proven Trudeau right on this one.

Debater

NDP candidate criticizes her party's promise to keep balanced budget

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

An Ontario NDP candidate has broken with the party line and is criticizing its promise not to run a deficit by fulfilling its campaign promises.

In a video obtained by CTV's Power Play, Susan Erskine-Fournier, who is running in the Ontario riding of St. Catharines, answers a question about what she likes the least about her party’s platform.

“Well, I think the thing that about our platform that I like the least is that it is very risky to be able to convince people that we're going to pull this budget off without going into a deficit,” she says.

“I don’t like it. I’m not sure how we’re going to do it.”

Erskine-Fournier initially agreed to a phone interview with CTV's Power Play, but proceeded to hang up the phone and did not return any follow-up calls.

----

Rest of article here:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/ndp-candidate-criticizes-her-par...

josh

It would be terrible to lose people like Cash and Nash. Hopefully they can hang on.

terrytowel

Trudeau just made campaign stops early this AM in Beaches-East York & Parkdale-High Park, both held by the NDP. Obviously polling is showing that the race is tight in both those ridings.

Kathleen Wynne will be on the campaign trail today stumping for FOUR LPC candidates in the GTA.

ctrl190

josh wrote:

It would be terrible to lose people like Cash and Nash. Hopefully they can hang on.

I'm still betting on Cash sneaking in. He won by 10,000 votes in 2011, that's a daunting number for the Libs to overcome. I hear that Nash could be in trouble. The ONDP won Parkdale High Park last year by some 500 votes, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes down to the wire again.

Sullivan, Kellway and Harris are running against the wind. Ditto for Chow, Hollett and McQuaig. I'm wondering if Rathika could pull out a win given her huge personal popularity in the riding. Sometimes diverse entho-cultural ridings don't reflect the wider national mood. 

terrytowel

josh wrote:

It would be terrible to lose people like Cash and Nash. Hopefully they can hang on.

According to 308.com AND The Toronto Star/Vox the only safe NDP seat in the GTA right now is Craig Scott in Toronto Danforth. Every other NDP GTA seat is in serious danger of getting snapped up by the Liberals. As the Libs are leading in every single NDP GTA held seat.

http://signal.thestar.com/

mark_alfred

terrytowel wrote:

Trudeau just made campaign stops early this AM in Beaches-East York & Parkdale-High Park, both held by the NDP. Obviously polling is showing that the race is tight in both those ridings.

Kathleen Wynne will be on the campaign trail today stumping for FOUR LPC candidates in the GTA.

Fascinating.  Mulcair goes to Conservative held ridings to advocate for the NDP to beat Conservatives, and Trudeau goes to NDP ridings to advocate for the Liberals to beat the NDP. 

ctrl190

Right now ThreeHundredEight has the Libs winning every Toronto riding except for Danforth, and every GTA riding except for 4 Con ridings. 308's seat projections, of course, are not ironclad, but it does give a good illustration of momentum. 

Hopefully TPP gives the NDP some life in some of the SW Ontario rust belt. I'm in Hamilton and I think the three current NDP ridings are safe. Alex Johnstone likely won't take Hamilton West-Ancaster.

terrytowel

mark_alfred wrote:

Fascinating.  Mulcair goes to Conservative held ridings to advocate for the NDP to beat Conservatives, and Trudeau goes to NDP ridings to advocate for the Liberals to beat the NDP. 

Yesterday Trudeau went to FOUR Conservative held ridings to advocate for the Liberals to beat the Conservatives.

Ciabatta2

ctrl190 wrote:

josh wrote:

It would be terrible to lose people like Cash and Nash. Hopefully they can hang on.

I'm still betting on Cash sneaking in. He won by 10,000 votes in 2011, that's a daunting number for the Libs to overcome. I hear that Nash could be in trouble. The ONDP won Parkdale High Park last year by some 500 votes, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes down to the wire again.

Sullivan, Kellway and Harris are running against the wind. Ditto for Chow, Hollett and McQuaig. I'm wondering if Rathika could pull out a win given her huge personal popularity in the riding. Sometimes diverse entho-cultural ridings don't reflect the wider national mood. 

Rathika's in tough because her riding was split.  Sadly for them, Scott will be the only NDPer elected in Toronto.  And he is not the brightest star in the Toronto NDP universe.  What a waste.  If I had to guess for any other NDPer elected, it would be Nash but I don't think it's in the cards for her.  Cash is done.

KarlL

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Rathika's in tough because her riding was split.  Sadly for them, Scott will be the only NDPer elected in Toronto.  And he is not the brightest star in the Toronto NDP universe.  What a waste.  If I had to guess for any other NDPer elected, it would be Nash but I don't think it's in the cards for her.  Cash is done.

Peggy Nash will be an interesting test of the value of incumbency, profile, a strong start and boots on the ground against a national campaign-driven surge.  It works for Ralph Goodale and will work for Jack Harris and Charlie Angus among others but they are all located in relatively distinct ridings with their own local media markets (though it used to work for Jean-Claude Malepart in Montreal).

If Nash does go down, it might suggest that the "positives" I mentioned first are less relevant in a big urban setting.

ctrl190

I agree that losing Nash, Rathika and Cash would be unfortunate. Kellway and Sullivan are strong constituency MPs who replaced lethargic Liberals who only engaged with at-risk communities like Crescent Town and Mount Dennis come elections. I think if worst comes to worst, Craig Scott will be a more than capable NDP voice for Toronto. He's sharp, intelligent and Ontario's only LGBT MP. 

Debater

mark_alfred wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

Trudeau just made campaign stops early this AM in Beaches-East York & Parkdale-High Park, both held by the NDP. Obviously polling is showing that the race is tight in both those ridings.

Kathleen Wynne will be on the campaign trail today stumping for FOUR LPC candidates in the GTA.

Fascinating.  Mulcair goes to Conservative held ridings to advocate for the NDP to beat Conservatives, and Trudeau goes to NDP ridings to advocate for the Liberals to beat the NDP. 

Oh, please.

Mark Alfred, I know you don't like Trudeau but try to be objective.

Trudeau has been in LOADS of Conservative ridings.  He was just in several of them yesterday, including in rural Ontario.

In fact, if it wasn't for Trudeau, Harper would be coasting his way towards another big win right now.

terrytowel

Ontario Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne is campaigning aggressively for federal party leader Justin Trudeau in this last week of the election campaign, spending most of Tuesday and devoting time later this week in ridings where the Liberals believe they are closing in on a victory.

She is in four ridings on Tuesday, two of which are battles between the Liberals and NDP: University-Rosedale, where Liberal incumbent Chrystia Freeland is competing against the NDP’s Jennifer Hollett, and Spadina-Fort York, a new riding where the Liberals’ Adam Vaughan is up against the NDP’s Olivia Chow. The other two ridings – one in Oakville and Etobicoke Lakeshore, which former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff lost in the 2011 election campaign – are fights between the Liberals and Tories.

Her presence is angering some NDP strategists, who argue that if she wants to defeat Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, as she has said she does, she should be campaigning against incumbent Tories in GTA ridings, rather than New Democrats.

Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is campaigning in Brantford and Niagara on Tuesday

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-hoping-wynnes-supp...

bekayne
josh

bekayne wrote:

Oakville Conservative MP Terence Young:

https://www.facebook.com/251089648271407/videos/vb.251089648271407/91031...

It's kitchen sink time for the Cons. Expect more in the next 5 days

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