Federal Election, 2015 - Seat Predictions

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NorthReport
Federal Election, 2015 - Seat Predictions

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NorthReport

2011 Election Results

Party / Per Cent / Seats

Cons / 40% / 166 seats / Majority Government

NDP / 31% / 103 seats / Official Opposition

Libs / 19% / 34 seats

Other / 10% / 5 seats

Total - 308 seats

Required for Majority - 155 seats 

 

Brachina

 If the Liberal supported the Tories over the NDP, especially when the NDP has a higher seat count, it would spell the death of the Liberal Party.

Jacob Two-Two

Doesn't mean they won't do it. You've gotta admit their strategies haven't been stellar lately. They are just arrogant enough to think they could get away with that. The alternative is giving the NDP credence as a real electoral option, which also might spell the end of the Liberal party.

sherpa-finn

Cons - 137 seats

Liberals - 112 seats

NDP -  85 seats

Other  - 2 seats

Total - 336 seats

Happy to be convinced that the NDP will somehow "squeeze up the middle" and take 20 additional seats in Ontario. But I just do not see that happening at the moment.  

terrytowel

Are you saying the other 2 seats will be one each for Green and BQ?

It still astounds me that Harper thinks he is going to win another majority.

At best he might win a minority, and to him that would be a loss.

ctrl190

I'm anticipating a 3 way race. 

CON 127

NDP 103

LIB 100

BQ 7

GRN 1

 

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Here's my current predictions for the next election, broken down by province.

Newfoundland & Labrador
Lib 6
NDP 1

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 6
Con 3
NDP 2

New Brunswick
Lib 7
Con 2
NDP 1

Québec
NDP 60
Lib 15
Con 3

Ontario
Lib 66
Con 43
NDP 12

Manitoba
Con 8
Lib 3
NDP 3

Saskatchewan
Con 11
NDP 2
Lib 1

Alberta
Con 32
Lib 1
NDP 1

British Columbia
Con 26
NDP 10
Lib 5
Grn 1

The North
Con 1
Lib 1
NDP 1

Total
Con 129
Lib 115
NDP 93
Grn 1

I also predict that the Conservatives will win their minority government with fewer votes than the Liberals. A lot of the Liberals votes will be wasted as they pile up 30% or greater second place finishes in ridings that the Conservatives and NDP will win.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I'm pretty confident that the Liberals would work with the NDP in a minority situation.

I also predict that there will be no majority government which makes a Lib/NDP coalition almost a certainty.

Jacob Two-Two

Why would you be so confident when that same situation happened quite recently, and the Liberals didn't cooperate with the opposition to keep the Cons out? They let them govern. Twice.

It seems strange to be so confident of a scenario when it's the exact opposite of what we've seen in reality. Are you just confident of it because you think it sounds nice?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Look how far those decisions got them. It's possible that they have learned a lesson. Why else would they be campaigning to the Left?

As was mentioned above by somebody else,the Liberals would be finished if they didn't work with the NDP.

Of course I could be wrong. Can't trust politicians.

Pondering

alan smithee wrote:

Look how far those decisions got them. It's possible that they have learned a lesson. Why else would they be campaigning to the Left?

As was mentioned above by somebody else,the Liberals would be finished if they didn't work with the NDP.

Of course I could be wrong. Can't trust politicians.

I think you are wrong and I don't think the Liberals are campaigning to the left either. If Harper wins a minority government the Liberals will not risk sending Canada into another immediate election nor participating in a "coup" with the NDP. Harper would have to do something radical to push the Liberals into either of those avenues.

The Liberals would also support an NDP minority government as long as it's policies were moderate and were policies the Liberals would also support were they in power. If the NDP did anything that could be typlified as recklessly endangering the economy the Liberals would side with the Conservatives.

Brachina

alan smithee wrote:

Look how far those decisions got them. It's possible that they have learned a lesson. Why else would they be campaigning to the Left?

As was mentioned above by somebody else,the Liberals would be finished if they didn't work with the NDP.

Of course I could be wrong. Can't trust politicians.

 Campaigning from the left? Trudeau has been campaigning from the Libartianist rightwing economic, sort of leftwing socially position.

 

Pondering

Brachina wrote:
Campaigning from the left? Trudeau has been campaigning from the Libartianist rightwing economic, sort of leftwing socially position.

It's interesting how much we agree even though we are not politically aligned.

Brachina

Pondering wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Campaigning from the left? Trudeau has been campaigning from the Libartianist rightwing economic, sort of leftwing socially position.

It's interesting how much we agree even though we are not politically aligned.

 

 Aha see that's how it begins, I corrupting your innocence, the next thing you know you'll be a raging New Democract with a copy of Jack Layton's books in one hand and a DVD of Tommy Douglas' Animated Mouseland with intro from his Grandson Kiefer Sutherland in the other, while qouting Ed Broadment, Alexa, and Mulcair.

 :D mahawhahahaha all part of my grand design.

Stockholm

Pondering wrote:

 If Harper wins a minority government the Liberals will not risk sending Canada into another immediate election nor participating in a "coup" with the NDP. Harper would have to do something radical to push the Liberals into either of those avenues.

There is no such thing as "winning a minority government" in our system of government. We elect a parliament and whoever can pass a throne speech will government. in Ontario in 1985 the PCs took 52 seats, the liberals 48 seats and the NDP 25 - the Liberals and NDP signed and accord and governed together effectively for over two years. Its irrelevant if the CPC has a plurality of seats - if the Liberals and NDP have more seats together they can should boot Harper from power. In fact Mulcair has already stated that he will make ANY arrangement with another federalist opposition party (ie: the Liberals and the Greens) if it means kicking out harper. Trudeau should do the same and be totally transparent that unless the CPC wins a majority - the opposition will form a coalition. If people are left suspecting that Trudeau will prop up harper - they will drop him like a hot potato

mark_alfred

My prediction remains the same as it was March 23, 2013 (see post #1):  Cons 106, NDP 116, Libs 99, Bloc 16, Greens 1.  (out of a total of 338)

NorthReport

Here are my seat projections for the coming election, whenever it will be held.

Unfortunately for the NDP the Liberals will never ever support an NDP minority government, so the Cons and the Liberals will form some kind of an alliance to prevent the NDP from forming the government.

NDP - 140 seats

Cons - 122 seats

Liberals - 74 seats

Other  - 2 seats

Total - 338 seats

Required for majority - 170 seats

 

 

Stockholm

mark_alfred wrote:

My prediction remains the same as it was March 23, 2013 (see post #1):  Cons 106, NDP 116, Libs 99, Bloc 16, Greens 1.  (out of a total of 338)

YOu are wayyy too high on the Bloc - since they picked that lunatic Beaulieu as their leader their support has crashed to the low teens. I they will get 1 or 2 seats at most - if that.

Centrist

Left Turn wrote:

Québec

NDP 60
Lib 15
Con 3

British Columbia

Con 26
NDP 10
Lib 5
Grn 1

Not bad. I will give ya an A for effort. Quite gutsy this far out! That said, just a couple of quibbles. 

As for Quebec, still think the Cons will receive roughly 10 seats - back to their old norm.

From Lac St. Jean in the north thru QC to across the St. Lawrence River and the Beauce and local environs. 10 seats has been the Cons norm prior to the orange wave in `11. Remember that former BQ voters on east island Montreal are more likely to vote NDP than former BQ voters in old Creditiste, bleu, ADQ, CAQ areas north and south of Quebec City.

And also think Libs will do better than that in QC.

As for BC, am very familiar with all new ridings, demographics, historical voting records, most neighbourhoods therein, etc. Could you give me an individual break-down of the NDP and Lib ridings that you prognosticate them winning? Thanks.  

Stockholm

Centrist wrote:

As for Quebec, still think the Cons will receive roughly 10 seats - back to their old norm.

What you refer to as their Conservatives "old norm" is what they took in exactly 2 election - 2006 - 10 seats, 2008 - 9 seats - apart from the two Mulroney landslides of 1984 and 1988 - the Tory "norm" in Quebec has been to win 3 or 4 seats - period...I don't see them making any gains in Quebec at all - first of all whatever dead cat bounce the Liberals get in Quebec under Trudeau will take votes that could otherwise be available to the CPC. Also, almost no one in Quebec actually likes Harper or his party - to the extent that the Tories took any seats at all - it was all based on a message of "you know the Tories will form government, so you better elect a Tory MP otherwise your roads will never be paved"...I think the general expectation now is that the Tories will lose - so if you live in Quebec City - why bother holding your nose and voting Conservative when you know all you will do is elect an oppsition backbencher.

Centrist

Sorry Stock. Gotta disagree somewhat.

Firstly, agree that the Cons in QC are viewed as western, right-wing Reform types IMHO. Anathema to QCers. Completely different than the old PCs. Akin to how the old Trudeau Libs were perceived in west in late 70`s and 80`s. Basically unelectable outside selective urban regions.

That said, both the old Trudeau Libs still had their western beach-heads akin to current Con beach-heads in QC. Those beach-heads in QC are in traditional `bleu` territory - akin to the Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley in BC, for example - From Lac St. Jean north of QC, thru QC to the other side of the St. Lawrence River in the Beauce and local environs. 

The Cons won 10 QC seats therein in both `06 and `08. (as opposed to 5 in `11 with the orange wave)

BTW, I am beginning to now think that the Cons will even win a minority of seats... looking forward at current dynamics. Wouldn`t even be surprised to see them receive a small majority in 2015. Seriously.

In that regard, the Cons are targetting 15 seats in the aforementioned QC region. Again, still see them taking roughly 10 of those seats. FWIW. 

The Libs in QC are a completely different story with strength in mostly different regions IMHO.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Centrist wrote:
As for BC, am very familiar with all new ridings, demographics, historical voting records, most neighbourhoods therein, etc. Could you give me an individual break-down of the NDP and Lib ridings that you prognosticate them winning? Thanks.

Ok, here's the ridings I prognosticate that the NDP and Liberals will win in BC.

NDP
Burnaby South
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford
Nanaimo-Ladysmith
New Westminster--Burnaby
Port Moody--Coquitlam
Skeena--Bulkley Valley
Surrey Centre
Vancouver East
Vancouver Kingsway
Victoria

Liberals
Surrey--Newton
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South

Centrist

Left Turn wrote:

Ok, here's the ridings I prognosticate that the NDP and Liberals will win in BC.

NDP
New Westminster--Burnaby
Skeena--Bulkley Valley
Vancouver East

Liberals

Surrey--Newton
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Granville
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver South

Thanks. Totally agree on foregoing. Still have doubts on following seats with reasons:

NDP

Burnaby South

Likely will go NDP but both `08 and `11 showed only a 5% NDP victory over Cons. Libs seem to have been reinvigorated with airhead Trudeau. Lib vote strength in urban Van City will be spilling over into neighbouring inner suburbs such as Burnaby. Libs will def increase vote share here. Question is - will they take more from Cons or NDP?

Cowichan--Malahat--Langford

Cons would have won this riding by 3% in `08. Major residential development continues in Langford esp. on higher-end Bear Mountain. Libs will take bigger chunk of vote here as well since also part of urban Victoria. Greens also very strong on southern Van Isle and will also increase vote share. Friend on CML NDP exec thinks Cons will win seat. Also thinks Cons will nominate Langford mayor Stu Young albeit no evidence of that.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Cons would have won this seat by over 1% in `08. Again resurgent Libs will take higher vote share and Greens as well. Depends which party they take vote share from `11.

Port Moody--Coquitlam

Fin Donnelly is an excellent MP. No doubt about it. That said, Cons would have won this seat by 9% in `08 and 6% in `11. Again, Lib vote resurgence is key and which party it takes from. 

Surrey Centre

Said it in past and will say again. Weirdest riding in BC. Should be slam dunk NDP based upon demographics but is not. Has elected Reform and Cons in past. Cons won in `08 by about 3% and NDP won in `11 by 5%. Area where Lib vote increase will also matter. Major development of condos in riding as well.

Vancouver Kingsway

Don is great MP and likely NDP. But caveat. Libs held riding during 90`s and 2000`s. Con blue wave in Van City in `08 and `11 will recede. And Lib BC resurgence ground zero is in Van City. Former Lib Candidate Wendy Yuen now Lib candidate in Richmond. Curious whom Libs have in mind here.

Victoria

Was Lib in 90`s and then NDP. Greens almost won seat in `12 by-election. Greens very strong in region now after BC provincial election, right up to and including Cowichan Valley. Libs also resurgent in this urban area.

Also predict BC fed popular vote share in `15 as follows: (within a few % points)

Con: 40% (-6%)

NDP: 25%- (-8%)

Libs: 25%+ (+12%)

Green 10% (+2%)

terrytowel

You guys are forgetting about the current dean of the House of Commons, Louis Plamondon. Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour

First elected in 1988 as a PC he defected to BQ in 1990.

He is running again and his personal popularity in the riding will ensure a single seat win for the BQ.

he could run as an independent and still win.

So Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour in the Bloc column and woould still have one seat in the commons.

Atlas

BTW:

Seat projections:

Cons  -  100 - 130

Libs  -  80 - 120

NDP  -  70 - 110

 

If I HAD to guess:

Cons: 120

Libs:   115

NDP:   100

Greens:  1

Bloc:  2

nicky

A little bit of wishful thinking, but perhaps not unrealistic in light of recent poling in Quebec and BC:

 

Atantic: L 19 C 6 N 7

Quebec: L 13 C 4 N 61

Ontario: L 45 C 50 N 26

Mantitoba: L 3 C 8 N 3

Sask: L 1 C10 N 3

Alta: L 1 C 32 N 1

BC: L 7 C 19 N 15 G 1

 

Total:

C  130

N  117

L   90

G    1

 

So what would the Liberals do with these numbers? My best is that they would prop up Harper in order to delay the next election when they would be squeezed out of serious contention for betraying progressive voters deluded into supporting them. 

 

Pondering

Stockholm wrote:
There is no such thing as "winning a minority government" in our system of government. We elect a parliament and whoever can pass a throne speech will government.

I know that is how it works legally, but in practice, people expect the party with the highest number of votes to form the government.

Stockholm wrote:
  in Ontario in 1985 the PCs took 52 seats, the liberals 48 seats and the NDP 25 - the Liberals and NDP signed and accord and governed together effectively for over two years.

I didn't know about that but things are different now and at the federal level. People did not take well to the notion of Dion becoming PM.  I like to think they would be more accepting of Trudeau becoming PM even if he didn't come "first" in votes but I am not convinced they would.

Stockholm wrote:
Its irrelevant if the CPC has a plurality of seats - if the Liberals and NDP have more seats together they can should boot Harper from power.

They can, but whether or not they should is a matter of opinion. I would certainly support it

Stockholm wrote:
In fact Mulcair has already stated that he will make ANY arrangement with another federalist opposition party (ie: the Liberals and the Greens) if it means kicking out harper. Trudeau should do the same and be totally transparent that unless the CPC wins a majority - the opposition will form a coalition.

I'd like to see a quote on that. I am not convinced Mulcair was that cut and dried about it.

Stockholm wrote:
  If people are left suspecting that Trudeau will prop up harper - they will drop him like a hot potato.

Canadians expect the opposition to work with minority governments not automatically defeat them.

I suspect that this time around the public might well support Trudeau leading a coalition government but it would be taking a big risk.

NorthReport

After the election it will be irrelevant what Canadaians want or expect.

Harper will probably continue to govern with the full support of the Trudeau-led Liberals.

Because of the absurd expectations the Liberals have set themselves up for with Trudeau at the helm, I am wondering if Trudeau will have to resign when he loses the election.

sherpa-finn

A quick note on the minority gov't scenarios being discussed:  my own expectation is that if CPC drops into minority position but with the most seats, Harper would go (and/or be pushed) and a new CPC leader would be installed who would have first kick at forming a gov't and/or presenting a throne speech.  That would provide the CPC with the scope to say "We have heard the voter's message and made the necessary adjustments" and provide Trudeau + LPC (whether in 2nd or 3rd place) to negotiate an entente with the new-look CPC gov't.

Atlas

Politics is 80% math, and 20% art.  You really have to scrape beneath the surface for the reality. 

Here's a few observations...

Port Moody--Coquitlam

Fin Donnelly is an excellent MP indeed.  He is also very well-known, elected multiple times, and is a well-liked champion of the environment,  In fact, his 2 Fraser River swims give him a bit of a hero-celebrity status. What the numbers don't show is the superb organizing he has been doing for a long time.  Volunteers, fundraising, political organizing, team-building, outreach - have all been outstanding. Coupled with the fact Fin was a city councillor in this area, elected multiple times, and is a very popular figure - this one stays NDP. The 2011 numbers, by the way, were based on James Moore being the incumbent and the NDP running a B campaign. Even then - the NDP did very well.  With an A campaign and an incumbent MP running against a non-incumbent, Fin will take this riding, although it will be a battle.

Surrey Seats

Jinny Sims is EVERYWHERE and is a superb media presence.  I think the teachers' dispute will only help her as she has long been a champion of public education - a very important issue to parents in her riding (and elsewhere). The Liberals' attack on public education will also stain the federal party, (Many have noted Justin Trudeau - a former BC teacher - said NOTHING for the teachers in the lock-out.  Mulcair spoke out for the teachers). Many folks do not distinguish between the provincial and federal Liberals, and Christy Clark's government is likely to be increasingly unpopular as we approach a federal election in 2015. Jasbir Sandhu practices politics the old-fashioned way - he quietly does the local stuff that simply gets you re-elected.  He is very popular, and his office does great work for the community. The NDP has a machine in Surrey and both should be re-elected with increased margins.

Vancouver Kingsway

Kingsway has been NDP for most of its existence since 1951 (11 times NDP) - except for being Liberal from 1993-2008. Don Davies won it back for the NDP and was the only NDP candidate in BC to win a non-incimbent seat in 2008;  he also did it when the NDP received only 18.9% of the vote nationally.  That says a lot about his organizational skills and underlying strength.  A lot of "art" here:  Davies is extremely popular among all the major cultural groups:  Chinese, Filipino, South Asian and Vietnamese communities, and many others as well. Like Jinny Sims, he is everywhere and is incredibly hard-working. He has excellent staff, outreach, communications and does superb casework for constituents, something that pundits never see or take into account. The David Emerson Liberal-Conservative betrayal still burns in this riding.  Last - Davies received 50% of the vote last time, the Cons got 29, and the Libs 16.  The Libs have a VERY long road back and the Cons vote is a solid brand vote of 28-29% (what they got in 2008 and 2011 running no-name candidates who brought nothing extra to the table).  The Cons will hold that vote. Davies may drop to 40% (not predicting he will - I think he'll stay near 50%), but this one stays NDP without doubt.

Victoria

Murray Rankin is an excellent MP - smart, likable, hard-working and with superb enviro cred.  He is well-organized and well-funded. The Greens may go at him, which is super-unfortunate, and shows EMay to be a total hypocrite with her "I'm not partisan, let's work together" schtick.  Still, incumbency will favour Rankin, and his constituents know he is at least as green as the Greens are - but also has a social conscience and has a crack at forming government.

 

Note also the last EKOS poll has the NDP at 37% in BC.  If that number holds, or stays near it, the NDP will pick up another 6-10 seats in BC....

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I would think that Trudeau should resign as soon as possible, for the good of the Liberal Party and Canada as a whole. If he leads the Liberals to a third-place finish (quite likely, IMO), they will call for his head.

sherpa-finn

A party does not elect a leader and not let him / her lead them into at least one election. (Any exceptions to that "rule"?? - I cannot think of one.)

Trudeau's not going anywhere, even if his / LPC numbers start to drop.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I don't know where they get their polling numbers from, but everyone I talk to says that Justin Trudeau is not suitable to be Prime Minister. He needs to step down to allow a professional Liberal politician to take the helm. Trudeau is performing so badly now that Harper is threatening an early election which he knows Trudeau will lose.

Trudeau has a responsibility to Canada to resign now as Liberal Party leader. Finding a new leader in the Liberal Party would call off the Harper attack dogs.

Robo

We do not even know the date of the 2015 election as of yet.  Is this thread as a whole a tad premature?

David Young

Theoretically (in the world of Harper!) there is a fixed election date of October, 2015, Robo.

However, there is growing speculation that he could ignore that legislation and try to call an early election when the polls indicate it would be to his advantage, just like in 2008.

Thus, the obsession with nominating candidates sooner than later.

 

PrairieDemocrat15

Atlas wrote:

Note also the last EKOS poll has the NDP at 37% in BC.  If that number holds, or stays near it, the NDP will pick up another 6-10 seats in BC....

There is no way the NDP get 37% on E-Day. However, I'm also very doubtful the Liberals will get over 20%, even though at least one person on this thread suggested 25% and some polls have had the Liberals above 30%.

They will make some gains, but I'm pretty sure they will be mostly in Vancouver proper and Surrey.

clambake

edit: wrong thread

Hunky_Monkey

nicky wrote:

 

So what would the Liberals do with these numbers? My best is that they would prop up Harper in order to delay the next election when they would be squeezed out of serious contention for betraying progressive voters deluded into supporting them. 

 

I wonder if it would be wise for Tom to pin Trudeau down on that?  Who would Trudeau support if it came down to a Mulcair government or another Harper government?  You know he'd dodge it making him look even more weak.  He couldn't say Mulcair as that would freak out all the blue Liberals he's trying to desperately win back.  And he couldn't say Harper as it would piss off most centre-left voters.  Imagine the deer caught in headlights moment if Tom asked that in the leaders debate?  Laughing

NorthReport

Think I'll stick with original prediction although not sure now that the Liberals will actually get that many seats.

NorthReport wrote:

Here are my seat projections for the coming election, whenever it will be held.

Unfortunately for the NDP the Liberals will never ever support an NDP minority government, so the Cons and the Liberals will form some kind of an alliance to prevent the NDP from forming the government.

NDP - 140 seats

Cons - 122 seats

Liberals - 74 seats

Other  - 2 seats

Total - 338 seats

Required for majority - 170 seats

 

 

clambake

2015:

LIB - 125

CON - 116

NDP - 95

GREEN - 1

BLOC - 1

 

2017:

NDP - 122

CON - 118

LIB - 96

GREEN - 2

BLOC -0

scott16

my prediction

NDP 163

Con 95

Lib 78

Green 1

Bloc 1

Brachina

 I won't give specific numbers but I predict that the NDP ends up with a majority and the Liberals bomb.

mark_alfred

I'm sticking with the same predictions I made quite some time ago:

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/federal-election-2015-predictions

 

Alberta:  Cons 33; NDP 1.

BC:  Cons 10; NDP 25; Libs 6; Greens 1.

Manitoba:  Cons 10; NDP 2; Libs 2.

NB:  Cons 3; NDP 2; Libs 5.

Newfoundland:  NDP 3; Libs 4.

NWT:  NDP 1.

Nova Scotia:  Cons 2; NDP 4; Libs 5.

Nunavut:  Cons 1.

Ontario:  Cons 30; NDP 27; Liberals 64.

PEI:  Cons 1; Libs 3.

Quebec:  Cons 3; NDP 50; Libs 9; Bloc 16.

Sask:  Cons 14; NDP 1; Libs 1.

Yukon:  Cons 1.

So, in total it will be Cons 106, NDP 116, Libs 99, Bloc 16, Greens 1.  (out of a total of 338)

(admittedly, the Bloc may be a bit high, but I'm still sticking with this prediction)

...and then Trudeau's Lib's join up with Harper's Cons, and the Cons continue to rule.

Centrist

Will just make a prediction for BC`s 42 seats as I am familiar with most/all of them - demographics, population changes, new developments within, poli history voting patterns, transposed results within new riding boundaries, etc., etc.

Also take into account 2008/2011 BC poli trends and changes therefrom in 2015 - ie. Current `Best PM` numbers in BC, Cons will always take about 40% of BC popular vote share, party momentum, etc., etc.

BC popular vote share in 2015:

Con: 40%

NDP: 25%

Lib: 25%

Green: 10%

Give or take a  few % on e-day.

Interior BC

1. Skeena-Bulkley Valley - NDP

2. Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies - Con

3. Cariboo-Prince George - Con

4. Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo - Con

5. Kootenay-Columbia - Con

6. North Okanagan-Shuswap - Con

7. South Okanagan-West Kootenay - Con

*when they redistributed Alex Atamenko`s SI seat, they took NDP stronghold out and threw in Con stronghold. Cons would have won by about 5.4% margin in `08 and 9.5% margin in `11 with higher Lib & Green vote share;

8. Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola - Con

9. Kelowna-Lake Country - Con

Metro Vancouver/Fraser Valley

10. Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon - Con

11. Chilliwack-Hope - Con

12. Abbotsford - Con

13. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge - Con

14. Langley-Aldergrove - Con

15. Cloverdale - Langley City - Con

16. South Surrey-White Rock - Con

17. Fleetwood-Port Kells - Con

18. Surrey-Newton - Lib

19. Surrey-Centre - NDP

20. Delta - Con

21. Steveston-Richmond East - Con

22. Richmond Centre - Con

23. Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam - Con

24. Port Moody-Coquitlam - Con

* really hope that Fin Donnelly can take this but Cons won by 6% in `11 and by 9% in `08 with higher Lib/Green vote share;

25. New Westminster-Burnaby - NDP

26. Burnaby South - NDP

27. Burnaby North - Seymour - *leaning Con

28. North Vancouver - *leaning Lib

29. West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - Con

30. Vancouver South - Lib

31. Vancouver Quadra - Lib

32. Vancouver Granville - Lib 

33. Vancouver Centre - Lib

34. Vancouver Kingsway - NDP

35. Vancouver East - NDP

Vancouver Island

*Complex area involving these factors, among others:

a. Surging Green vote (esp. in Greater Victoria and Cowichan Valley) and uptick in Lib vote;

b. In 2011, Con vote north of Malahat stayed same - NDP solely benefitted from Lib/Green vote collapse; 

c. Winning margins north of Malahat razor thin, esp. for NDP;

d. During 2013 BC provincial election, all provincial ridings north of Malahat saw NDP vote decrease, Green vote increase, and combined right-wing BC Lib + BC Con vote increase;

e. North of Malahat, esp. north of Nanaimo, continues to see influx of Albertan retirees with Con bent;

36. Saanich-Gulf Islands - Green

37. Victoria - *leaning Green

38. Saanich-Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca - *leaning Con

39. Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - Con

40. Nanaimo-Ladysmith -*leaning Con

41. Courtenay-Alberni - Con

42. Vancouver Island-Comox-North-Powell River - Con   

Give or take a few seats, right now I see this playing out in BC on e-day:

Con: 28

NDP: 6

Lib: 6

Green: 2

NorthReport

Just want to say thanks to those of you who are willing put your money where your mouth is and publicly declare your seat projections. 

Let's have a contest to see who comes closest:

You can change your vote up to midnite, the nite before actual election day, however we will invoke the "Nate Silver herding clause", so all your predictions in the last three weeks preceeding the election ,will be averaged out, otherwise you might get accused of rigging your forecast, eh!  Wink

 

gadar

Centrist wrote:

18. Surrey-Newton - Lib

30. Vancouver South - Lib

Surrey -newton will most probably be  NDP (cons can take it with the right candidate)

van south will likely stay con (NDP candidate is still to be nominated, so who the NDP choses can make a difference)

Overall

Cons will still have a majority

NDP will still be the official opposition

Liberals will still be in third place.

war on workers, first nations, minorities etc will continue. More people will lose rights. Police will get more powers. Democracy will be weakened further. People who think that their privileges are not threatened by the Cons will shrug their shoulders, irrespctive of the party they belong to. They will then go on to do the post mortem of the election.

Some will blame the NDP for vote splitting, others will blame Liberals for the vote splitting. Harpers integrity, strength, and tactical acumen will be praised. It will all be the fault of Trudeaus hair. Some will gloat and strut around saying that they had been saying that the pretty boy wasnt upto it and conveniently ignore that the former liberal was also on the losing side. Others will question their enthusiasm at the election results. Others like me will be disgusted by the results and swear to stay away from it all in the future, but will be back after about an year....

I am hoping I will be wrong about this.

 

Centrist

gadar wrote:
Surrey -newton will most probably be  NDP (cons can take it with the right candidate)

van south will likely stay con (NDP candidate is still to be nominated, so who the NDP choses can make a difference)

Interesting that the 2 ridings that ya mentioned also have the largest Indo-Canadian populations in BC.

Here is my reasoning for both:

1. Surrey Newton:

Likely has the highest Indo-Canadian population in BC. And, for whatever reason, they tend to vote NDP provincially and Lib federally. Back in 2011, the NDP scored its highest popular vote share in BC at 33% with the collapse of the Libs. The Libs had its lowest popular vote share in BC in 2011 at 13%. Goes many decades back for such a low Lib popular share result.

Even then, in 2011, the NDP only won this newly reconfigured riding by  a razor thin 1.3% margin. And the Libs would have won it by a 10% margin back in 2008. Now the Libs, under Herr Trudeau, seem to have bounced back big time here in BC. And Herr Trudeau also seems to be attracting large crowds in the Surrey Indo-Canadian community from what I have seen in the MSM.

And the Surrey-Newton Lib candidate, Sukh Dhaliwal, is nothing but a convicted tax scammer as far as I am concerned. Yet he seems to be quite popular within the Indo-Canadian community there. And the Lib Surrey-Newton nomination meeting also seems to have been the largest in Canada to date.

Cons are not in play in that riding. Minor players. In fact, I have previously, on Babble, put Surrey-Newton in the Lib fold. And it will likely remain a strong Lib seat in BC moving forward, after 2015.

2. Vancouver South:

The 2nd highest Indo-Canadian population in BC. Yes, I am fully aware of the problems in that Lib nomination process. Yet the Lib, who stepped down, does not blame it on Herr Trudeau in the MSM. Blames it on his BC organizers in the MSM. Go figure. In any event, again the Indo-Canadian community trends provincial NDP and fed Lib here as well.

Even the provincial NDP has been unable to win the 2 seats underlying this fed seat. It has always been a fed Lib & Con battle. BTW, the last NDP candidate here was Meena Wong who received 21% in 2011. She also recently ran under the left banner for COPE as mayor in the recent Van City muni election.

When the Libs are strong in BC, Van City proper has always been their area of strength. In 2011, the Con blue wave rolled into Van City with the Lib collapse. Def looks like the Lib red wave will roll out from there in 2015. Do not know how far that will go and further implications. And with that the Libs win back Van South. BTW, the Con MP in Van-South had numerous highly publicized negative stories in the MSM that she ran away from in election 2011. She also seems to be invisible to this day.

As an aside, the 2 toughest ridings to predict in BC from my perspective right now? Victoria and neighbouring Saanich-Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca. That is why I have listed both as 'leaning'.

Again, when the Libs are strong in BC both urban Van City as well as urban Victoria is where they receive their largest riding popular vote shares historically. Yet, in Greater Victoria, the Greens are also surging. In the the Victoria riding, that means strong NDP, strong Green, and strong Lib showings. Cons irrelevant.

Just this evening it has come to my attention (not hearsay) that both the Greens and Libs will have well-known local Victoria media personas represent them as their respective candidates in the Victoria riding. And I know who both are. Too early to know how that will play out.

And neighbouring Saanich-Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca also will have a strong NDP, Green, and Lib presence. Yet that likely will split the vote allowing the Con to squeeze up the middle.

Again, I have placed these 2 BC ridings as 'leaning' as early days yet.  

nicky

I appreciate your detailed assessments Centrist, even if they are gloomy.

I would point out from dstant Toronto that the Cons have not seen 40% in BC in any recent poll so there are grounds to hope you are overly pessimistic.

Also, the Cons stand to win a number of seats because of the high Green vote. This may be squeezed back towards the NDP in the home stretch.

 

Centrist

nicky wrote:
I appreciate your detailed assessments Centrist, even if they are gloomy.

I would point out from dstant Toronto that the Cons have not seen 40% in BC in any recent poll so there are grounds to hope you are overly pessimistic.

Also, the Cons stand to win a number of seats because of the high Green vote. This may be squeezed back towards the NDP in the home stretch.

Thanks Nicky. In response I still recall, during election 2011, the fed polls by Angus Reid and Ekos, for instance, showing the NDP in the lead here in BC. Even recall in previous elections 2008 and 2006 the same thing by Ekos at least. Yet, on e-day 2011 the Cons received 46% of the vote here in BC. No pollster ever showed that huge swing.

In any event, the Cons have always been in the roughly 40% range here in BC on e-day over the past 4 or 5 elections. Nothing ever changes.

As you might be aware, I have oft pilloried pollsters on here - be it opt-in online panel polls or IVR polls. Mostly junk these days.

As a further aside, quarterly BC provincial polls were the norm here in BC for over 20 years and dutifully reported upon by the media. After the May, 2013 provincial election fiasco that has all now ended.

Since then, the BC MSM refuses to report any more BC polls. The only polls since then have been by even worse 2nd rate pollsters such as Justasen and Insights West. And I dig them up myself whenever I can to have my own poll fix.

While I know my prediction is pessimistic, I am also quite comfortable right now in calling all of BCs 42 fed ridings. A few may change prior to e-day however. As I pointed out. Unless some poli earthquake happens. :)  Lets all hope for the best!

nicky

The new redistribution has also been highly unfavourable for the NDP in BC. Notwithstanding 6 new seats in the province the NDP would have fallen from 12 to 9 seats on the new boundaries.

While we're on the topic of predictions we should also note the significant national advantage the Conservatives get from the redistribution:

In 2011:

C 166

N 103

L    34

New boundaries with same vote distribution:

C 188

N 109

L  36

It gets worse. In order to lose their majority in the present House (308 members) the Conservatives would have to lose 13 seats. If you plot their riding margins on a pendulem you will see that they won 13 seats by 2.3% or less.

In the new House there are 338 seats. The Cons would lose their majority if they lost 20 seats. They would have won their 20th most vulnerable seat by 5.1%.

So the Conservatives get an extra cushion of 2.8%. This assumes of course a uniform national swing which is not common in a nation of regions.

Still the new map makes it significantly more difficult to drive the Conservatives into a minority. In 2011 they got 166 seats with 39.6%. They would lose 13 seats if 1.3% of their vote went directly to the leading opposition party in each riding. That means they could have preserved their majority with only 38.3%.

On the new boundaries the swing necessary would be 2.6%. They could therefore get a majority with only 37.0%.

None of this is of course carved in stone but even so the Cons have a pronounced advantage under the new boundaries.

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