Federal Liberal Candidates

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PrairieDemocrat15

Debater wrote:

We're kind of getting off-track here.  The bottom line is that it's remarkable how well the Liberals did in that riding last year considering that it's a riding that has only voted Liberal in modern history in 1993 when there was a right-wing split.

The bigger question is why the NDP vote collapsed in that riding, and in Provencher.  The NDP had finished ahead of the Liberals in both those ridings under Layton.

The NDP vote in Provencher was higher than what it was in 1997 and 2000, when the NDP won four seats in Manitoba. Also, the NDP only overtook the Liberals in Provencher in the 2011 and 2008 ridings.

 

The NDP vote in Brandon-Souris collapsed due to the media and pollster incorrectly speculating the Liberals could win. That party's success in that riding is almost certainly due tot he fact that the Liberals ran the son of the longtime and beloved PC MP for Brandon-Souris. Now that Disndale is no longer intrested in running for the Liberals again due to Trudeau's interference in nominations, look for the party's vote in Brandon-Souris to fall off a cliff in 2015.

Adam T

Adam Pankratz is the Liberal candidate in Burnaby South. 

Adam Pankratz @adamjpankratz · 1h1 hour ago

Very proud to announce I will be the Liberal Party of Canada's candidate in Burnaby South for 2015. #lpc #lpcbc

I believe he defeated 2011 Liberal nominee in New Westminster-Burnaby Ken Beck Lee for the nomination.

Seems like a decent fellow and he has two masters degrees (MBA and French and Spanish linguistics) but to say he has a low profile is an insult to people with a low profile.

The lack of a high profile Liberal candidate should be a benefit to NDP MP Kennedy Stewart.

Debater

It's probably the Conservative candidate that Kennedy Stewart has to worry about the most.

Centrist

Debater wrote:
It's probably the Conservative candidate that Kennedy Stewart has to worry about the most.

Nope. Definitely both the Lib candidate and the Green candidate. Even if they have no name recognition whatsoever. Just party name on ballot. As both will likely bleed more votes from the NDP than from the Cons in 2015 with their apparent momentum out here in BC.

The NDP only won this redistributed riding by a 5% margin in both 2008 and 2011. And, frankly, I think that the Cons will take it in 2015. Unfortunately.

BTW, just yesterday saw SFU professor Lynne Quarmby, who was a major media face of the Burnaby Mountain anti-Kinder Morgan pipeline  protests, announce her candidacy for the Greens in neighbouring Burnaby North-Seymour.

Adam T

Debater wrote:

It's probably the Conservative candidate that Kennedy Stewart has to worry about the most.

Both the Conservatives and the Liberals have been the main challengers to the NDP in Burnaby in the past.

Debater

The Liberals haven't been competitive in Burnaby since Svend Robinson was NDP MP.  They crashed in the area under Dion & Ignatieff.

The Liberals have the potential to be more competitive in BC under Justin Trudeau because he has greater family roots in the area, but the redistributed numbers for Burnaby South show the Liberals in a distant 3rd, with the Conservatives a close 2nd to the NDP.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding.php?riding=2132

Adam T

Debater wrote:

The Liberals haven't been competitive in Burnaby since Svend Robinson was NDP MP.  They crashed in the area under Dion & Ignatieff.

The Liberals have the potential to be more competitive in BC under Justin Trudeau because he has greater family roots in the area, but the redistributed numbers for Burnaby South show the Liberals in a distant 3rd, with the Conservatives a close 2nd to the NDP.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding.php?riding=2132

In 1993 the Liberals receieved 28.1% of the vote in B.C and came in a fairly close second to the NDP in a fairly close 3 way race in Burnaby-Kingsway.

In 1997 the Liberals received 28.8% of the vote in B.C and came in third in Burnaby-Douglas, distantly behind New Democrat Svend Robinson but just behind the Reform Party with 26.1% of the vote.

In 2000 the Liberals received 27.7% of the vote in B.C and came in a distant third in Burnaby-Douglas with 23.7% of the vote.

In 2004 the Liberals received 28.6% of the vote in B.C and came in a very close second (losing by 2%) in Burnaby-Douglas in a fairly close 3 way race with 32.5% of the vote.

In 2006 the Liberals recieved 27.6% of the vote in B.C and came in a very close second (losing by 2.5%) in Burnaby-Douglas in fairly close 3 way race with 33.0% of the vote.

In 2008 the Liberals received 19.3% of the vote in B.C and came in a distant third in Burnaby-Douglas with 19.4% of the vote.

In 2011 The Liberals received 13.4% of the vote in B.C and came in a distant third in Burnaby-Douglas with 11.2% of the vote.

So, from 1993-2006 the Liberals received between 27.6% and 28.8% of the vote in B.C and came in 2nd in the Burnaby riding (one of the two) in 3 of the 5 elections and came in 3rd by just 1% of the vote in one of the other elections.  

If the Liberals can get back to around that share of the vote in B.C in the 2015 election, they should get around 25% of the vote in Burnaby South.

Adam T

Centrist wrote:

Debater wrote:
It's probably the Conservative candidate that Kennedy Stewart has to worry about the most.

Nope. Definitely both the Lib candidate and the Green candidate. Even if they have no name recognition whatsoever. Just party name on ballot. As both will likely bleed more votes from the NDP than from the Cons in 2015 with their apparent momentum out here in BC.

The NDP only won this redistributed riding by a 5% margin in both 2008 and 2011. And, frankly, I think that the Cons will take it in 2015. Unfortunately.

Maybe. The Conservatives though will likely be harmed in Burnaby by their support for the Kinder Morgan Pipeline and their semi undemocratic changes to the approval process.  If the Liberals do get back to the around 28% of the vote in B.C they got from 1993-2006 we'll see whether they take more votes from the NDP or the Conservatives.

Kennedy Stewart is a very strong M.P and should recieve a lot of votes from people who don't normally support the NDP because of that.

 

Adam T

Please delete duplicate post.

Adam T

Two more Liberal candidates for nomination in B.C

1.Arne Gulstene, Fleetwood-Port Kells, TMX Group Regional Head and National Team Manager - Company Services (securities trading company, or something like that), MBA, B.A-Economics, Institute of Canadian Bankers Fellow (silver medalist)

2.Tim Kane, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Tim Kane, Chair Delta Media Inc (public relations, marketing and communications firm), B.A-Communications (as opposed to one of the two Democratic U.S Senators from Virginia whose named is spelled Tim Kaine)

sherpa-finn

This news item has mentioned elsewhere, - just inserting here in the thread on Liberal nominations

So, - yet another shambolic Liberal nomination .... this time the dispute is in the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York, currently held by Mathew Kellway of the NDP.

Just wondering, is anyone keeping count of all these disputes?

Appeal of Toronto Liberal nomination launched over robocalls to party members 

The fairness of another Liberal nomination has been called into question amid allegations the winning candidate used automated robocalls that discouraged a rival’s supporters from voting. Marisa Sterling, a chemical engineer who lost the nomination contest in the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York, has filed an appeal with the Liberal permanent appeals committee over last weekend’s selection of litigation lawyer Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as the party’s candidate....

http://www.canada.com/News/politics/Appeal+Toronto+Liberal+nomination+launched+over+robocalls+party/10667898/story.html

 

Pondering

sherpa-finn wrote:

This news item has mentioned elsewhere, - just inserting here in the thread on Liberal nominations

So, - yet another shambolic Liberal nomination .... this time the dispute is in the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York, currently held by Mathew Kellway of the NDP.

Just wondering, is anyone keeping count of all these disputes?

Appeal of Toronto Liberal nomination launched over robocalls to party members 

The fairness of another Liberal nomination has been called into question amid allegations the winning candidate used automated robocalls that discouraged a rival’s supporters from voting. Marisa Sterling, a chemical engineer who lost the nomination contest in the Toronto riding of Beaches-East York, has filed an appeal with the Liberal permanent appeals committee over last weekend’s selection of litigation lawyer Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as the party’s candidate....

http://www.canada.com/News/politics/Appeal+Toronto+Liberal+nomination+launched+over+robocalls+party/10667898/story.html

 

Sterling would not confirm she had filed the appeal or discuss the reasons for it, but the Citizen has learned it concerns efforts by Erskine-Smith’s campaign to warn members about voting rules.

Erskine-Smith sent a letter to party members in the riding that reminded them of voting rules and the requirement to have purchased their party memberships with their own money — a message that some saw as targeted at Sterling’s supporters.

“You must pay for your own membership,” the letter said. “Buying a membership for someone else is fraud, and will result in a waste of the voter’s time.”

In bold type, it added, “Voters who did not buy their own membership will be stopped from voting,” although there was no requirement for members to produce proof-of-payment when they voted.

The warning appears to have been triggered by unproven suspicions that someone bought $10 memberships for a large number of people in the month before the nomination meeting.

More than a thousand new party members, many from the Bangladeshi and South Asian communities, were signed up in November, allowing them to participate in the riding association meeting to select the new candidate in the Beaches.

........

Sterling said any issues she had about the nomination are between her and the party.

 

 

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
Former NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph seeks Liberal nomination in Saskatchewan

(Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River)

December 19, 2014

---

Excerpt:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

“Mr. Tom Mulcair, with all due respect to him, is no Jack Layton,” he explained.

With Mulcair proving a disappointing replacement for Layton, when Justin Trudeau asked Joseph to seek a Liberal Party nomination bid he jumped at it.

Partisanship aside, “My purpose is to represent people, as I’ve always done all my life,” Joseph said.

Under this manta, Joseph said that Trudeau makes a better fit than Mulcair, and that he even reminds him of the late Jack Layton.

---

More:

">http://www.paherald.sk.ca/News/Local/2014-12-19/article-3983757/Lawrence...

One more constituency that will certainly stay in the Conservative column.

Debater

Former NDP candidate Lawrence Joseph seeks Liberal nomination in Saskatchewan

(Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River)

The Prince Albert Daily Herald

December 19, 2014

---

Excerpt:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

“Mr. Tom Mulcair, with all due respect to him, is no Jack Layton,” he explained.

With Mulcair proving a disappointing replacement for Layton, when Justin Trudeau asked Joseph to seek a Liberal Party nomination bid he jumped at it.

Partisanship aside, “My purpose is to represent people, as I’ve always done all my life,” Joseph said.

Under this manta, Joseph said that Trudeau makes a better fit than Mulcair, and that he even reminds him of the late Jack Layton.

---

More:

http://www.paherald.sk.ca/News/Local/2014-12-19/article-3983757/Lawrence...

Debater

The Conservatives will have the edge, sure.  But it has gone Liberal in the past, so anything is possible.

What's also interesting are the insights Lawrence Joseph provides into Jack Layton & Justin Trudeau being more appealing than Tom Mulcair, and that could be relevant across the country.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Adam T wrote:

Adam Pankratz is the Liberal candidate in Burnaby South. 

Adam Pankratz @adamjpankratz · 1h1 hour ago

Very proud to announce I will be the Liberal Party of Canada's candidate in Burnaby South for 2015. #lpc #lpcbc

I believe he defeated 2011 Liberal nominee in New Westminster-Burnaby Ken Beck Lee for the nomination.

Seems like a decent fellow and he has two masters degrees (MBA and French and Spanish linguistics) but to say he has a low profile is an insult to people with a low profile.

The lack of a high profile Liberal candidate should be a benefit to NDP MP Kennedy Stewart.

I don't Adam Pankratz personally, but my friend Charlie Demer's family are friends with the Pankratz's. Charlie's Dad Daniel rented a house from Adam's parents from 1992-2004, and their family has also had free use of the Pankraytz's cabin on Galiano Island. And my parents vaguely know Adam's parents, because my brother went to school with Adam's sister Jane.

Adam doesn't have much of a profile himself, but the Pankratz family name has a bit of one. Adam's Dad was a Social Studies teacher when I was in grade 8 at Mocrop, and then became a vice-principal and then principal (though not at Moscrop). So his surname will be a bit of an advantage to him.

Pondering

Debater wrote:

The Conservatives will have the edge, sure.  But it has gone Liberal in the past, so anything is possible.

What's also interesting are the insights Lawrence Joseph provides into Jack Layton & Justin Trudeau being more appealing than Tom Mulcair, and that could be relevant across the country.

From reading the article and this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desneth%C3%A9%E2%80%94Missinippi%E2%80%94Ch...

It looks like it could be a three way race.

Brachina

 Does Lawerance honestly think Jack Layton would have supported his actions? Maybe he should have asked Jack's mom. I hate when people who act attack and betray Jack's legacy and his dream act like they really respect him, while saying Mulcair is no Jack Layton. 

 Well guess what no he's not, but that not a bad thing, he might not have Jack's folksy charm, but in many ways he's better then Jack was, at QP Mulcair is simply better for example. 

 And Mulcair has made his own space and made the rule of NDP leader his own, unlike Trudeau who hides behind his fathers ghost with his hidden rightwing  adgenda

Adam T

Left Turn wrote:

Adam T wrote:

Adam Pankratz is the Liberal candidate in Burnaby South. 

Adam Pankratz @adamjpankratz · 1h1 hour ago

Very proud to announce I will be the Liberal Party of Canada's candidate in Burnaby South for 2015. #lpc #lpcbc

I believe he defeated 2011 Liberal nominee in New Westminster-Burnaby Ken Beck Lee for the nomination.

Seems like a decent fellow and he has two masters degrees (MBA and French and Spanish linguistics) but to say he has a low profile is an insult to people with a low profile.

The lack of a high profile Liberal candidate should be a benefit to NDP MP Kennedy Stewart.

I don't Adam Pankratz personally, but my friend Charlie Demer's family are friends with the Pankratz's. Charlie's Dad Daniel rented a house from Adam's parents from 1992-2004, and their family has also had free use of the Pankraytz's cabin on Galiano Island. And my parents vaguely know Adam's parents, because my brother went to school with Adam's sister Jane.

Adam doesn't have much of a profile himself, but the Pankratz family name has a bit of one. Adam's Dad was a Social Studies teacher when I was in grade 8 at Mocrop, and then became a vice-principal and then principal (though not at Moscrop). So his surname will be a bit of an advantage to him.

 

The Liberal Party is so familiar with him they call him Adam Pankrayz on their web site.

Debater

Brachina wrote:

 Does Lawerance honestly think Jack Layton would have supported his actions? Maybe he should have asked Jack's mom. I hate when people who act attack and betray Jack's legacy and his dream act like they really respect him, while saying Mulcair is no Jack Layton. 

 Well guess what no he's not, but that not a bad thing, he might not have Jack's folksy charm, but in many ways he's better then Jack was, at QP Mulcair is simply better for example. 

 And Mulcair has made his own space and made the rule of NDP leader his own, unlike Trudeau who hides behind his fathers ghost with his hidden rightwing  adgenda

Brachina, you've been one of Mulcair's biggest fans on this board since he became NDP leader.  You're entitled to do so and that's your democratic right.

But you have to realize that not everyone out there thinks Mulcair walks on water.

Pondering

Brachina wrote:
Does Lawerance honestly think Jack Layton would have supported his actions? Maybe he should have asked Jack's mom. I hate when people who act attack and betray Jack's legacy and his dream act like they really respect him, while saying Mulcair is no Jack Layton.

He wouldn't have been asking for Layton's approval:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

He's a non-partisan much like I am. He wasn't an NDP party supporter he was a Jack Layton supporter (not worshiper) and he isn't a Liberal supporter now he's a Trudeau supporter.  


Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
Debater wrote:

The Conservatives will have the edge, sure.  But it has gone Liberal in the past, so anything is possible.

What's also interesting are the insights Lawrence Joseph provides into Jack Layton & Justin Trudeau being more appealing than Tom Mulcair, and that could be relevant across the country.

From reading the article and this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desneth%C3%A9%E2%80%94Missinippi%E2%80%94Ch...

It looks like it could be a three way race.

Given Saskatchewan political history and where current trends are, not likely. The Liberals have not been seriously competitive in that riding for close to a decade, and only managed to hold it on the coat-tails of Rick Laliberte, who crossed the floor from the NDP to the Liberals, at a time when the Liberals were much stronger nationally than they are now. Saskatchewan has basically been a Liberal dead zone for a long time (they lucked out in 1993 because of the PC-Reform split, but they've been losing ground ever since) but absent any Saskatchewan-specific polling data or by-elections, I just can't believe the idea that Liberal fortunes are on the rise. The only impact the Liberals will have is to siphon votes, allowing the NDP to take urban ridings and allowing the Conservatives to take the North.

swallow swallow's picture

Lawrence Jospeh could definitely win. He (not Jack Layton) is the reason that the NDP vote soared in the last election from distant third to close second. Northern Sask First Nations people are not a block vote for any party (and why should they be?). I think he'd have had a good chance to win as an NDP candidate and he has a good chance to win as  a Liberal candidate. 

Riding profile from last census: first langauge English 45,110, Cree 14,755, Dene 7,460. 

trotwood73

Pondering wrote:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

 

Funny, a "lifelong non-partisan" who has run for the NDP and now running for the Liberals! In my experience, such non-partisans tend to be opportunistic parasites that will kiss whatever butts or suck whoever's **** just to advance their personal ambitions. This is the kind of scum that makes the population cynical of politics in general. 

 

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Pondering wrote:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

He's a non-partisan much like I am. He wasn't an NDP party supporter he was a Jack Layton supporter (not worshiper) and he isn't a Liberal supporter now he's a Trudeau supporter.  

I find it difficult to imagine anything more foolish or self-defeating for a politically aware, high information voter than to support a leader rather than a party. The only exception would be if there were no significant difference between the policies of the parties in question, which is what you constantly claim, Pondering, but which many babblers have debunked dozens of times with actual facts and history.

swallow swallow's picture

trotwood73 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

Funny, a "lifelong non-partisan" who has run for the NDP and now running for the Liberals! In my experience, such non-partisans tend to be opportunistic parasites that will kiss whatever butts or suck whoever's **** just to advance their personal ambitions. This is the kind of scum that makes the population cynical of politics in general. 

Although I personally think he made the wrong choice, I also think the former chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indians and lifetime activist is entitled to a little more repect than to be called "scum" for failing to pledge lifetime loyalty to a party that he ran for in one election. 

[url=http://www.fsin.com/index.php/past-leaders/129-lawrence-joseph.html]FSIN bio page[/url]

Brachina

trotwood73 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

 

Funny, a "lifelong non-partisan" who has run for the NDP and now running for the Liberals! In my experience, such non-partisans tend to be opportunistic parasites that will kiss whatever butts or suck whoever's **** just to advance their personal ambitions. This is the kind of scum that makes the population cynical of politics in general. 

 

 

 +1,000,000

robbie_dee

I understand that politics in far north Saskatchewan has always been more personal than partisan, and I've also heard that former Liberal turned provincial NDP member [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckley_Belanger]Buckley Belanger[/url] is rumored to be considering the federal NDP nod. With all due respect to Joseph and the Conservative, I would bet on Belanger.

Quote:
He was originally elected to the Legislative Assembly in the 1995 general election as a Liberal member. He left the party to join the NDP in 1998, recontesting his seat in a by-election in which he attained 93.64 per cent of the vote, the second highest margin of victory ever attained by an electoral candidate in the province.

Pondering

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Pondering wrote:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

He's a non-partisan much like I am. He wasn't an NDP party supporter he was a Jack Layton supporter (not worshiper) and he isn't a Liberal supporter now he's a Trudeau supporter.  

I find it difficult to imagine anything more foolish or self-defeating for a politically aware, high information voter than to support a leader rather than a party. The only exception would be if there were no significant difference between the policies of the parties in question, which is what you constantly claim, Pondering, but which many babblers have debunked dozens of times with actual facts and history.

Both the party and the leader matter but so does the local candidate and all of the people who are publically representing the party and the policy. History matters very little to non-party followers. What matters is the people leading the party now. In this particular case the man who wants to represent the community is well-regarded within it. People will be voting for him to represent them, he lends credibility to the party not the other way around.

The NDP ran a bunch of no-name place-keepers in ridings in Quebec. They were not elected on the strength of NDP history but on it's leader, le bon Jack.

Policies are also determined by leaders and I have pointed out numerous incidences in which I disagree with NDP policy and with Mulcair.

The Liberal party moves with the times and their ideology is moderation. Yes Paul Martin made cuts but he also refused to deregulate the banks. Like the TD bank, the Liberals will make the economic argument for social services just as Trudeau made the economic argument for improving the education of FN children.

Aristotleded24

To suggest that the Liberals have a serious chance in Northern Saskatchewan is to not understand Saskatchewan political history and trends, absent any Saskatchewan-specific polling data or by-elections to go on.

Pondering

robbie_dee wrote:

I understand that politics in far north Saskatchewan has always been more personal than partisan, and I've also heard that former Liberal turned provincial NDP member [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckley_Belanger]Buckley Belanger[/url] is rumored to be considering the federal NDP nod. With all due respect to Joseph and the Conservative, I would bet on Belanger.

Quote:
He was originally elected to the Legislative Assembly in the 1995 general election as a Liberal member. He left the party to join the NDP in 1998, recontesting his seat in a by-election in which he attained 93.64 per cent of the vote, the second highest margin of victory ever attained by an electoral candidate in the province.

He certainly sounds wildly popular regardless of party. Where is the rumour circulating? I wonder if the fact that Lawrence Joseph is running would impact his decision? As Buckley is a former Liberal it seems like he isn't very partisan either. If he respects Joseph Buckley he may feel he is better off continuing to represent his constituents provincially.

Adam T

Aristotleded24 wrote:

To suggest that the Liberals have a serious chance in Northern Saskatchewan is to not understand Saskatchewan political history and trends, absent any Saskatchewan-specific polling data or by-elections to go on.

 

1.The Liberals held this riding Federally when they were polling in the mid to high 30s in the early 2000s.  They are once again in the mid to high 30s in the polls.

2.Buckley Belanger was elected as a provincial Liberal in this area in the mid 1990s.

3.Certainly aboriginals are not a monolithic voting bloc, but many of them support the Liberal Party and there are a lot of aboriginals in the riding.  

My guess is this riding will be a close 3 way race.

Aristotleded24

Adam T wrote:
My guess is this riding will be a close 3 way race.

I know what the history of that riding is, but also remember that the NDP won that seat in 1993 when the Liberal Party was at the height of its popularity in Saskatchewan. I doubt the Liberals would have had a chance in any circumstances were it not for Laliberte crossing the floor to join them. What you have not done is provide any current data specific to Saskatchewan that would invalidate my claim.

Adam T

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Adam T wrote:
My guess is this riding will be a close 3 way race.

I know what the history of that riding is, but also remember that the NDP won that seat in 1993 when the Liberal Party was at the height of its popularity in Saskatchewan. I doubt the Liberals would have had a chance in any circumstances were it not for Laliberte crossing the floor to join them. What you have not done is provide any current data specific to Saskatchewan that would invalidate my claim.

The NDP won 5 ridings in Saskatchewan in 1993.

Aristotleded24

Adam T wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Adam T wrote:
My guess is this riding will be a close 3 way race.

I know what the history of that riding is, but also remember that the NDP won that seat in 1993 when the Liberal Party was at the height of its popularity in Saskatchewan. I doubt the Liberals would have had a chance in any circumstances were it not for Laliberte crossing the floor to join them. What you have not done is provide any current data specific to Saskatchewan that would invalidate my claim.

The NDP won 5 ridings in Saskatchewan in 1993.

So did the Liberals. Then the Liberal seat count started to fall off after that.

Debater

No one is predicting that the Liberals are going to win the Northern Saskatchewan seat.  Obviously the only Federal seat the Liberals can count on in SK is Ralph Goodale's in Wascana.

However, with Joseph running there is the possibility to be more competitive.  That's all that anyone is saying right now.  The other interesting point about this candidacy is that it's another interesting example of a former Jack Layton supporter being disenchanted with Mulcair.

Btw, you asked for current data specific to Saskatchewan.  Well, we don't tend to get a lot of specific Federal polling for Saskatchewan, but what we have seen over the past 2 years is a decline in the Federal NDP vote under Mulcair in Western Canada, and an increase in the Liberal vote under Justin Trudeau.  And if you look at the MB/SK category in the last week's Federal polls, they show the Liberals leading the NDP.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
And if you look at the MB/SK category in the last week's Federal polls, they show the Liberals leading the NDP.

The reason for that could very well be that the NDP are very unpopular in Manitoba right now, and that lead could very well be enough to vault them ahead of the NDP even if lumped in with Saskatchewan with the Liberals barely registering. There have been polls in the last 18 months that have the provnicial NDP flirting with third place, so it's not a surprise that the Liberals would be ahead of the NDP here. In Saskatchewan, however, the Liberals have not registered on the political scene for well over a decade, and I've seen little to indicate that has changed. Now, if there is a by-election in Saskatchewan or a poll out of that province that puts the Liberals ahead, I will reconsider my position. Until then, my argument stands.

Debater

trotwood73 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

 

Funny, a "lifelong non-partisan" who has run for the NDP and now running for the Liberals! In my experience, such non-partisans tend to be opportunistic parasites that will kiss whatever butts or suck whoever's **** just to advance their personal ambitions. This is the kind of scum that makes the population cynical of politics in general. 

 

What a disgusting thing to say about Lawrence Joseph.

What happened to Layton's party of hope & love?

Is it any wonder that the NDP is now 10 points below where it was in May 2011 and is now down at 20%?

Your nasty attack on Mr. Joseph proves his point that today's NDP has deteriorated from where it was under Layton.  You should retract the comments you made about him.

clambake

Yes, the NDP has dropped in polling because of social media comments. They clearly need to revise their platform to address the 'nastyness' of such comments.

trotwood73

Debater wrote:

What a disgusting thing to say about Lawrence Joseph.

Oh please. Spare us the sanctimonious attitude. I did not call Lawrence Joseph anything. I clearly stated: “In my experience, such non-partisans tend to be..."

The comment was directed at people who claim non-partisanship, but act or speak differently. 

Debater wrote:

What happened to Layton's party of hope & love?

I realized a long time ago, almost a decade before Layton’s death bed letter, that such things rarely exist in politics. In fact, I am pretty sure I came to that realisation during my years as a volunteer at Liberal HQ.

By the way, I love how often Liberals and Conservatives quote Jack Layton’s final letter. I am sure if he had known of its popularity amongst the red and blue partisans, he probably would have added the following postscript:

“P.S. That being said, never be afraid to call someone out on their BS.”

swallow swallow's picture

Debater wrote:

No one is predicting that the Liberals are going to win the Northern Saskatchewan seat.  Obviously the only Federal seat the Liberals can count on in SK is Ralph Goodale's in Wascana.

Not sure I will be predicting it, but with Joseph as candidate there's a chance. Polls for Sask have little reaing on Northern Sask. Joseph came within a few votes last time. Liberal candidates finished seciond in 2004, first in 2006, second in 2008. The NDP was well back in third each time. That changed in 2001 when NDP candidate Lawrence Jospeh soared to a very close second. 

Was it on the strrength of the Layton appeal? I'd argue, and there are many in northern Sask who would argue, that it was the personal appeal of Joseph that made this possible. The NDP jump in the rest of Sask was not so much. 

It is at least possible that Joseph can put the Liberals back near the top, if not take it. If Cree and Dene communities coalesce behind one candidate, as they did behind Gary Merasty in 2006, then that candidate is a real contender, whatever party colours they happen to be wearing.

Meanwhile, here is a respected First Nations leader being derided as "scum" on a progressive board. That sucks. 

PrairieDemocrat15

Pondering wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Does Lawerance honestly think Jack Layton would have supported his actions? Maybe he should have asked Jack's mom. I hate when people who act attack and betray Jack's legacy and his dream act like they really respect him, while saying Mulcair is no Jack Layton.

He wouldn't have been asking for Layton's approval:

A lifelong non-partisan, Joseph said that it was Jack Layton who drew his support to the NDP.

He's a non-partisan much like I am. He wasn't an NDP party supporter he was a Jack Layton supporter (not worshiper) and he isn't a Liberal supporter now he's a Trudeau supporter.  

Intresting that in 2010, Joseph said he was drawn to the NDP, not because of Jack Layton, but becuase of the NDP:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/former-fsin-chief-seeks-feder...

"Joseph said he was drawn to the NDP because of its strong focus on social justice.

'I've never really been a party person,' Joseph said. 'But I think the agenda of the NDP has been one that's attractive to me.'

'They're advocates,' he added. 'They basically say what they want to say. They're not afraid to call a spade a spade.'"

http://www.paherald.sk.ca/News/2010-03-13/article-904060/Lawrence-Joseph...

“'You look at the party policies of all parties and I think the NDP has a track record of being advocates of all people rather than just following party politics,'” said Joseph."

Sad to see him use the old and intellectually lazy "Tomis no Jack" excuse for abandoning the party that believed in you.

By the way, in my books, a "partisan" who sticks to his or her party through the good times and thr bad becuase he or she believes in its message is superior to a "non-partisan" who changes his or her colours based on which way the wind is blowing.

PrairieDemocrat15

I agree that Indigenous voters are not tied to one party, although polls and election returns do show they are more supportive of certain parties. That data also shows their support for a party goes up when that party runs an Indigenous candidate. And although the Harper government has alientated many Indigenous leaders and activists and conservative parties are generally not popular anoung Indigenous voters, don't think Lawrence will automatically get the support of Indegenous voters becuase he is Indigenous himself. Rob Clarke, the current MP for Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, is also Indegenous and still won in 2011 when the progressive vote was united behind Lawrence and the NDP.

Also, with the exception of Meratsy the Liberal vote has only registered in Churchill River when the party poaches candidates from the other parties. Think Laliberte, Beatty, Orchard, and, though of the pattern holds turn remains to be seen, Joseph.

He could win, but I'd say with him running for the Liberals, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River has changed from having a strong chance of being an NDP (ie "prgressive, or not-Conservatives") pick-up to becoming a likely Conservative hold.

The NDP, depending on the candiate, could finish a weak third (below 20%) or win in a tight three-cornered race.

Adam T

Nothing to do with the Federal Liberals.

"I've also heard that former Liberal turned provincial NDP member Buckley Belanger" is considering running federally,

Longtime Saskatchewan NDP MLA Jon Nilson just announced he won't run again.

The Saskatchewan NDP has already nominated 10 non incumbents for the next provincial election

http://www.saskndp.ca/team

and included among them is the ultimate sacraficial lamb: a student candidate (although I believe he just graduated), Brett Estey, in a longtime NDP riding in Regina. 

Debater

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

He could win, but I'd say with him running for the Liberals, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River has changed from having a strong chance of being an NDP (ie "prgressive, or not-Conservatives") pick-up to becoming a likely Conservative hold.

The NDP, depending on the candiate, could finish a weak third (below 20%) or win in a tight three-cornered race.

Well, who knows, but there have been some big changes in the Federal numbers in Saskatchewan since 2011.

In 2011, these were the party support numbers:

Conservative - 56.3%

NDP - 32.3%

Liberal - 8.6%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_2011

 

Here are the party support numbers for Saskatchewan at the end of 2014:

Conservative - 41.8%

NDP - 24.7%

Liberal - 24.3%

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/12/liberals-up-conservatives-stabl...

Some pretty big changes there from 2011.  Conservatives and NDP have dropped, and Liberals have tripled their support from the Ignatieff era, and are tied with the NDP.

Who knows what that will result in for the individual ridings, but it's interesting to ponder.

Debater

Kingston Mayor Mark Gerretsen chosen tonight as new Liberal nominee for Kingston & the Islands

https://twitter.com/Stn14Kingston/status/554054861189570561

Debater

United Church Minister Rev. Jeffrey Rock nominated tonight as Liberal candidate for Red Deer-Lacombe.

http://alberta.liberal.ca/en/red-deer-lacombe-nomination-meeting/

Debater

Liberals in talks with Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair to run in upcoming federal election

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/01/13/exclusive-liberals-in-talks-with-chief...

Debater

Fort William First Nation Chief Georjann Morriseau seeks Liberal nomination in Thunder Bay-Rainy River

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/georjann-morriseau-seeks-feder...

janfromthebruce

What do Liberals have in common with Conservatives - why they go after the same candidate! Says lots about how NOT different they are in political direction and how similar they are in conservative thought. Hence why are ironically called Liberalcons.

More to the point, both these political parties want a police chief who wouldn't stop carding and may have given the order to kettle protesters and passers-by during the G20 Summit in Toronto? How progressive is that? It's not.

Hoping and working hard that progressive Canadians aren't paying attention.

John Tory says Bill Blair dismissed stories on move to politics

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