Federal NDP Candidates 2015

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Adam T

babbler 8 wrote:

Winning with a 1919 margin after redistribution does NOT make Hedy un-beatable. What people are failing to see here is the affect of ground organizing. We are also failing to tak into account that NDP/Liberal isnt th only vote splitting.

In Vancouver-Centre the NDP put minimal resources in last time, believing the lie that Hedy is unbeatable. This time will be different. I'm not predicting she is going to lose, but I am predicting an exciting two way race between Hedy and Constance.

 

Burnaby North - Seymour will be an interesting race. (I should note that Trevor Ritchie bowed out of the nomination and I'd be shocked if Carol doesn't get it.) This is definately the Conservatives to lose and the NDP definately is in the best position to win it since it is mostly Burnaby-Douglas, the NDP's longest held seat. I would never suggest the Liberals bow out, but I would suggest they nominate a candidate that is to the right and appeals in North Van if they are so fond of being "strategic." The Liberals need to eat into the Conservative vote to help the NDP win, so a three way race favors the NDP.

The NDP has also never worked the Seymour area, so we actually don't know their potential there. I expect the NDP will get more than they got last time there, espcially with a high profile candidate and high resource campaign. What is really striking if you look at the numbers, is that the Seymour part has a 70% turnout, while the Burnaby-North part has a 58% turnout. Upping the Burnaby turnout will be goal of the NDP, and the recent municipal results are encouraging there.

Either way, the best way to prevent a Conservative win in Burnaby North-Seymour is to convince people not to vote Conservative. No amount of strategery will overcome the fact that they have 44.3% of the redistributed vote.

1. I don't know if I'd count Michael Charrois out of winning the nomination.  He is well known as the President of the North Vancouver-Lonsdale provincial NDP constituency association.  He has also been a federal and provincial candidate in 2001, 2008 and 2011.  Also, like Sarah Blyth, Carol Baird Ellan is a rather late entrant. Though, I suppose the NDP could delay the nomination to help her out.  Also, if Derek Corrigan and Darell Mossato/Craig Keating enlist their organizations in helping her out, she should be a shoo-in.

2.If it's of any help   Jim Hanson 2013 provincial NDP North Vancouver-Seymour  candidate was elected to North Vancouver district council. Like Carol Baird Ellan, Hanson was a star lawyer candidate.

sherpa-finn

Thanks for a thoughtful, reasoned and analytical post Babbler 8.  You new here? Or where have you been hiding? 

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

sherpa-finn wrote:

Thanks for a thoughtful, reasoned and analytical post Babbler 8.  You new here? Or where have you been hiding? 

Since his/her join date is April 16, 2001, I suspect this person is actually the 8th to register as a babble user. So, probably not a newbie.

babbler 8

Winning with a 1919 margin after redistribution does NOT make Hedy un-beatable. What people are failing to see here is the affect of ground organizing. We are also failing to take into account that NDP/Liberal isnt th only vote splitting.

In Vancouver-Centre the NDP put minimal resources in last time, believing the lie that Hedy is unbeatable. This time will be different. I'm not predicting she is going to lose, but I am predicting an exciting two way race between Hedy and Constance.

 

Burnaby North - Seymour will be an interesting race. (I should note that Trevor Ritchie bowed out of the nomination and I'd be shocked if Carol doesn't get it.) This is definately the Conservatives to lose and the NDP definately is in the best position to win it since it is mostly Burnaby-Douglas, the NDP's longest held seat. I would never suggest the Liberals bow out, but I would suggest they nominate a candidate that is to the right and appeals in North Van if they are so fond of being "strategic." The Liberals need to eat into the Conservative vote to help the NDP win, so a three way race favors the NDP.

The NDP has also never worked the Seymour area, so we actually don't know their potential there. I expect the NDP will get more than they got last time there, espcially with a high profile candidate and high resource campaign. What is really striking if you look at the numbers, is that the Seymour part has a 70% turnout, while the Burnaby-North part has a 58% turnout. Upping the Burnaby turnout will be goal of the NDP, and the recent municipal results are encouraging there.

Either way, the best way to prevent a Conservative win in Burnaby North-Seymour is to convince people not to vote Conservative. No amount of strategery will overcome the fact that they have 44.3% of the redistributed vote.

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

She is challenging Benskin for the nomination...IMHO she sounds like she would be MUCH better than Benskin

You're right that Benskin does have some baggage.  He was stripped of his critic's position last year by Mulcair when it was revealed he had unpaid taxes.

Marc Miller is the new Liberal candidate.  He was a friend of Justin Trudeau's at Brébeuf.

Brachina

 What a surprise, more gravy for Justin's buddies.

nicky

Debater is quite right to point out that Benskin has some baggage. Typically he neglects to mention the baggage of the Liberal candidate:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/questions-raised-about-votes-in-marc-mil...

But of course Miller is a friend of Justin's and all of this is therefore excused.

 

terrytowel

Meanwhile Rathika Sitsabaiesan is making plans to run in the riding of Scarborough North, which makes up about 3/4 of her old riding.

But Toronto school board trustee Shaun Chen (and newly elected chair of the Toronto District School Board) has announced he plans on taking her on in 2015 for the Liberals.

Here is a picture of the two of them in happier times

robbie_dee

Why did he run for chair if he's planning on leaving the job in less than a year? I'm unimpressed.

Debater

nicky wrote:

Debater is quite right to point out that Benskin has some baggage. Typically he neglects to mention the baggage of the Liberal candidate:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/questions-raised-about-votes-in-marc-mil...

But of course Miller is a friend of Justin's and all of this is therefore excused.

Analogy of false equivalency, Nicky.

An internal disagreement about how a party nomination was conducted is not the same as a Member of Parliament not paying his taxes.

nicky

"Internal disagreemnet"?????

Is that how you read it? Corruption and entitlement would be a better phrase.

benhart benhart's picture

UPCOMING NDP/NPD NOMINATIONS THIS WEEK

**THU:DEC,04,2014**

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: Brigitte Sansoucy is set to be acclaimed

**FRI:DEC,05,2014**

Berthier—Maskinongé: Ruth Ellen Brosseau is set to be acclaimed

Brossard—Saint-Lambert: Hoang Mai is set to be acclaimed

Repentigny: Rejean Bellemare is set to be acclaimed

Scarborough North: Rathika Sitsabaiesan is set to be acclaimed

**SUN:DEC,07,2014**

Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation: Chantel Crete and Sarah Dwyer will compete for the nomination

Salaberry—Suroît: Anne Minh Thu Quach is set to be acclaimed

Sherbrooke: Pierre-Luc Dusseault is set to be acclaimed

Cambridge: Bobbi Stewart is set to be acclaimed

Davenport: Andrew Cash is set to be acclaimed

Chilliwack—Hope: Seonaigh Macpherson is set to be acclaimed

 

Adam T

benhart wrote:

UPCOMING NDP/NPD NOMINATIONS THIS WEEK

 

Chilliwack—Hope: Seonaigh Macpherson is set to be acclaimed

 

benhart, I don't doubt your superior knowledge, but I have to ask where you found out about this. I can't find any reports anywhere that Seonaigh MacPherson is running for the NDP.

janfromthebruce

 

NOW Readers Choice Best of T.O. 2014 won by

Best MP Rathika Sitsabaiesan

The NDP MP from Scarborough-Rouge-River blew us all away with what seemed an improbable election win in 2011 when she became the first Tamil ever elected to Parliament. The Queen’s University graduate holds a master’s degree in industrial relations and an undergraduate commerce degree from Carleton. She was active in student politics at both schools as a rep of the Canadian Federation of Students. She continues to kick ass in Ottawa on the issue of war crimes in her native Sri Lanka.

followed by

Peggy Nash

benhart benhart's picture

Adam T wrote:

benhart wrote:

UPCOMING NDP/NPD NOMINATIONS THIS WEEK

 

Chilliwack—Hope: Seonaigh Macpherson is set to be acclaimed

 

benhart, I don't doubt your superior knowledge, but I have to ask where you found out about this. I can't find any reports anywhere that Seonaigh MacPherson is running for the NDP.

Adam T this should help CoolSeonaigh Macpherson Link

 

Adam T

Thanks.  That makes 20 B.C NDP candidates and M.Ps who are either nominated or running again.

The only retiring NDP M.Ps in B.C are:

1.Jean Crowder

2.Alex Atameneko

Seonaign MacPherson, Chilliwack-Hope, Department of Adult Education, Faculty of Professional Studies Department Head, PHD

babbler 8

Good eye. Yes, I've been around since the beginning but nohwere near as active as I used to be. I lost interest when it got really toxic here at one point, and have since only contributed to the occational political thread. 

 

Michael Moriarity wrote:

sherpa-finn wrote:

Thanks for a thoughtful, reasoned and analytical post Babbler 8.  You new here? Or where have you been hiding? 

Since his/her join date is April 16, 2001, I suspect this person is actually the 8th to register as a babble user. So, probably not a newbie.

terrytowel

 Jean Lapierre just tweeted

Six persons attending her nomination meeting :-(La députée Élaine Michaud met le cap sur 2015)

http://www.courrierdeportneuf.com/Actualites/Politique/2014-12-03/articl...

Stockholm

Her nomination meeting was just a formality since she is wildly popular in her riding - this is the woman who bravely took on that "Conservative-in all but name" Andre Arthur in 2011 and won easily despite him viciously attacking her personally.

Brachina

Former Conservative joins and runs for the NDP: and explains why in some detail. Interesting: facebook.com/notes/10154898… # #

 

 The above was a tweet put out by pundits guide.

Rokossovsky

Election for early May?

Brachina

 Where did you hear that Roko?

benhart benhart's picture

MP Chris Charlton has decided not to run in 2015 sighting she want's to spend more time with family.An exceptional candidate and MP she will be missed.

 BYE BYE Chris THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICECry

This now means the NDP Nomination in Hamilton Mountain is open.

Debater

Stockholm wrote:

Her nomination meeting was just a formality since she is wildly popular in her riding - this is the woman who bravely took on that "Conservative-in all but name" Andre Arthur in 2011 and won easily despite him viciously attacking her personally.

She won for the same reason that the rest of the NDP MP's won in Québec - because of Jack Layton's wave.  The effect in Portneuf-Jacques Cartier was no different than it was in the other 58 seats that went NDP.

Debater

benhart wrote:

MP Chris Charlton has decided not to run in 2015 sighting she want's to spend more time with family.An exceptional candidate and MP she will be missed.

 BYE BYE Chris THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICECry

This now means the NDP Nomination in Hamilton Mountain is open.

The whole Hamilton area is very strong for the NDP these days, both federally & provincially.  The NDP has really mopped the floor with the other parties in recent elections.

Federally it hasn't really been a good area for the Liberals since the Sheila Copps/Tony Valeri controversy a decade ago.  However, there are some good Liberal candidates running under Trudeau in the Hamilton area in 2015, so there will be the opportunity for Liberal gains.  The best opportunity for a Liberal win may be in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek where the new Liberal candidate is the Mayor of Hamilton, Bob Bratina.

robbie_dee

Debater wrote:
 The best opportunity for a Liberal win may be in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek where the new Liberal candidate is the Mayor of Hamilton, Bob Bratina.

I bet Bratina wishes he'd waited before declaring in HESC, as an open Mountain seat would probably have offered a better opportunity than running against Wayne "Giant Killer" Marston. Marston's already defeated one former Mayor (DiIanni), a House Leader (Valeri) and a former Ontario PC cabinet Minister and wanna-be Mayor (Brad Clark). I'm sure Marston will give Bratina all due credit as an opponent, but I doubt he's quaking in his boots.

[Edited - I thought Marston had also defeated current Mayor Eisenberger on his first time out, but E had actually ran and lost in a prior election].

Debater

Marston has also had the advantage of running over the past decade when the Liberal Party was on the decline and was in the middle of an internal feud in that area.  He might have more of a challenge running against the Trudeau Liberals who are better-organized than some of their predecessors.

Still, as I said above, Hamilton is a strong area for the NDP both federally & provincially now, so even someone high-profile like Bratina will have to work hard if he wants to win.  The fact that the Liberals are well ahead of the NDP in Ontario right now is a help, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Liberals can win in Hamilton yet.

Brachina

Debater wrote:

Marston has also had the advantage of running over the past decade when the Liberal Party was on the decline and was in the middle of an internal feud in that area.  He might have more of a challenge running against the Trudeau Liberals who are better-organized than some of their predecessors.

Still, as I said above, Hamilton is a strong area for the NDP both federally & provincially now, so even someone high-profile like Bratina will have to work hard if he wants to win.  The fact that the Liberals are well ahead of the NDP in Ontario right now is a help, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Liberals can win in Hamilton yet.

 

 Who are you trying to convince us or yourself?

Debater

I wasn't trying to convince anyone of anything -- either you or myself.  I was engaging in an appraisal of the challenges facing the Liberals in regaining ground in Hamilton.  As I said, while the Liberals are on the rise in Ontario and the NDP is on the decline, Hamilton is an NDP stronghold right now and there are no guarantees for the Liberals there - even if one of the NDP incumbents is retiring.

Btw, the Liberal candidate in Hamilton Mountain is Anne Tennier.  I don't know much about her other than that she is a chemist & engineer in Hamilton.  Charlton's retirement makes her task easier in 2015, but as I said above, the NDP will still be strong in Hamilton Mountain, even without an incumbent.

adma

Keep in mind that Charlton had a high profile Grit opponent in 2011--former McGuinty cabmin Marie Bountrogianni.  Poor third, 16%.

David Young

Brachina wrote:

Former Conservative joins and runs for the NDP: and explains why in some detail. Interesting: facebook.com/notes/10154898… # #

 

 The above was a tweet put out by pundits guide.

Which former Conservative?  Do you have a name?

 

Debater

adma wrote:

Keep in mind that Charlton had a high profile Grit opponent in 2011--former McGuinty cabmin Marie Bountrogianni.  Poor third, 16%.

Right - because of the Ignatieff collapse in Ontario.  Same thiing happened to most Liberals that year.

benhart benhart's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

Debater wrote:
 The best opportunity for a Liberal win may be in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek where the new Liberal candidate is the Mayor of Hamilton, Bob Bratina.

I bet Bratina wishes he'd waited before declaring in HESC, as an open Mountain seat would probably have offered a better opportunity than running against Wayne "Giant Killer" Marston. Marston's already defeated one former Mayor (DiIanni), a House Leader (Valeri) and a former Ontario PC cabinet Minister and wanna-be Mayor (Brad Clark). I'm sure Marston will give Bratina all due credit as an opponent, but I doubt he's quaking in his boots.

[Edited - I thought Marston had also defeated current Mayor Eisenberger on his first time out, but E had actually ran and lost in a prior election].

Just to add some political humor to this little chit-chatLaughing

Brachina

 LMFAO

Adam T

David Young wrote:

Brachina wrote:

Former Conservative joins and runs for the NDP: and explains why in some detail. Interesting: facebook.com/notes/10154898… # #

 

 The above was a tweet put out by pundits guide.

Which former Conservative?  Do you have a name?

 

 

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ethan-georges

Debater

So a former Conservative is joining the NDP?

How do people here feel about that?

Is it another indication that the NDP is becoming more right-wing?

Brachina

 I view it as the natural disillusionment of middle class, especially males and whites, with those who pretended to have thier interests at heart and then proceded to use them and lie to them and then throw them away. We need people like this to open up eyes amoung former Tories.

 There are millions of Canadians like Ethan and if Ethan can speak to them, open them up to fighting climate change, ending stupid wars, fighting poverty and so see through the elites BS then the NDP benifits.

 This coule be a continueing sign of disillusionment of Southern Ontario with the Tories which could be a sign of the future when the oil market out west dries up and the Tory voters out there realize that they were sold a pile of bullshit. 

Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

benhart wrote:

MP Chris Charlton has decided not to run in 2015 sighting she want's to spend more time with family.An exceptional candidate and MP she will be missed.

 BYE BYE Chris THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICECry

This now means the NDP Nomination in Hamilton Mountain is open.

The whole Hamilton area is very strong for the NDP these days, both federally & provincially.  The NDP has really mopped the floor with the other parties in recent elections.

Federally it hasn't really been a good area for the Liberals since the Sheila Copps/Tony Valeri controversy a decade ago.  However, there are some good Liberal candidates running under Trudeau in the Hamilton area in 2015, so there will be the opportunity for Liberal gains.  The best opportunity for a Liberal win may be in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek where the new Liberal candidate is the Mayor of Hamilton, Bob Bratina.

A good time for Andrea Horwath to put aside her job as leader of the ONDP and run for a federal seat Having her on the campaign trail in Western Ontario might really do some good.

Brachina

 Andrea will be on the campaign trail either way I have no doubt.

Adam T

Rokossovsky wrote:

Debater wrote:

benhart wrote:

MP Chris Charlton has decided not to run in 2015 sighting she want's to spend more time with family.An exceptional candidate and MP she will be missed.

 BYE BYE Chris THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICECry

This now means the NDP Nomination in Hamilton Mountain is open.

The whole Hamilton area is very strong for the NDP these days, both federally & provincially.  The NDP has really mopped the floor with the other parties in recent elections.

Federally it hasn't really been a good area for the Liberals since the Sheila Copps/Tony Valeri controversy a decade ago.  However, there are some good Liberal candidates running under Trudeau in the Hamilton area in 2015, so there will be the opportunity for Liberal gains.  The best opportunity for a Liberal win may be in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek where the new Liberal candidate is the Mayor of Hamilton, Bob Bratina.

A good time for Andrea Horwath to put aside her job as leader of the ONDP and run for a federal seat Having her on the campaign trail in Western Ontario might really do some good.

 

#1 on "Things not going to happen"

sherpa-finn

Local media are reporting that Maria Mourani will officially announce her candidacy for the NDP nomination in Ahuntsic-Cartierville tomorrow. (Not sure how that constituency differs from her old one of Ahuntsic. I believe Cartierville was part of Stephane Dion's old riding.)

nicky

I posted this in another thread trecently Sherpa-Finn and hope it answers your question:

 

The new boundaries shift the riding westward, taking in a chunk of Liberal territory from Stephane Dionne's riding. Some strong pols for the Bloq and the NDP get shifted eastward into Bourassa.

Ahuntsic in 2011 voted:

Bloq   31.8%

NDP 30.3

Lib 27.9

In the new Ahuntsic-Cartierville, the vote would have been:

Bloq 28.3

NDP 29.9

Lib 31.1

So although the Liberals would have won, the combined NDP-Bloq vote almost doubled the Liberal vote. Mourani therefore has very good prospects.

Another possibility may be Bourassa which inherits a sizable chnk of Ahuntsic

In 2011:

Lib 40.9

NDP 32.3

Bloq 16.1

With the redistribution this narrows to:

Lib 38.5

NDP 32.4

Bloq 19.0

The last Crop poll showed that the Bloq was maintaining only 44% of its previous vote with 32% now preferring the NDP and only 18% the Liberals.(Other recent polls have shown that Bloq voters prefer the NDP to the Loberals by as much a 6 to 1)

Assuming otherwise constant voting patterns this would translate into:

Ahuntsic-Cartierville:

Lib 34.5

NDP 39.0

Bloq 12.5

I would expect that Mourani as the NDP candidate could expect to squeeze a much bigger proportion of the Bloq vote in her direction.

Applying the numbers above to Bourassa incidentally:

Lib 41.9

NDP 38.5

Bloq 8.4

 

 

 

sherpa-finn

Thanks, nicky! Very interesting ... it will be a riding to watch on election night!

Unionist

Bloc, not Bloq.

Rokossovsky

Stockholm wrote:

Linda McQuaig virtually tied Chrystia Freeland in the part of Toronto Centre that will be the riding of Toronto Centre post-redistribution. She proved to be a very effective candidate and built up lots of name recognition - i think she is the strongest possible candidate in 2015 in Toronto Centre - especially since the Liberals are running a rightwing business tycoon from the CD Howe Institute.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jennifer Hollett runs in University-Rosedale nnext year...but nothing will be decided or announced until after the municipal elections.

I agree that McQuaig should run again in Toronto Center. Especially because the Liberal candidate looks weak.

Spadina-Fort York, is almost certainly a losing proposition because this is where Vaughan will run. So, Hollet will be a loss there.

University-Rosedale could be a winner for the NDP, in part because Freeland is also a pretty weak candidate. Hollet might have a shot at this, and would be a good fit barring the emergence of a very strong canidate.

NDPrs in the riding keep on saying nice things about Adam Vaughan. Adam might have been an entertaining adversary of Rob Ford, but he was a pretty crappy councillor in Ward 20, and leaves as his legacy the most massive spike in density and condo-development in the history of the Ward. Plans for Alexandra Park revitalization amounted to converting public property for private profit.

Is that part of the National Housing "Strategy" that Vaughan intends to implement at the federal level? A pale comparison to the National Housing "Program" that Paul Martin axed, in order to rein in the deficit: We need a "program", not a "strategy".

David Young

Adam T wrote:

David Young wrote:

Brachina wrote:

Former Conservative joins and runs for the NDP: and explains why in some detail. Interesting: facebook.com/notes/10154898… # #

 

 The above was a tweet put out by pundits guide.

I found a Facebook page for an Ethan Rabidoux, who's running for the nomination in Perth-Wellington.

Who is Ethan Georges?

 

Which former Conservative?  Do you have a name?

 

 

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ethan-georges

I found a Facebook page for Ethan Rabidoux, who's running for the NDP nomination in Perth-Wellington.

Who is Ethan Georges?

 

Adam T

David Young wrote:

Adam T wrote:

David Young wrote:

Brachina wrote:

Former Conservative joins and runs for the NDP: and explains why in some detail. Interesting: facebook.com/notes/10154898… # #

 

 The above was a tweet put out by pundits guide.

I found a Facebook page for an Ethan Rabidoux, who's running for the nomination in Perth-Wellington.

Who is Ethan Georges?

 

Which former Conservative?  Do you have a name?

 

 

http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/ethan-georges

I found a Facebook page for Ethan Rabidoux, who's running for the NDP nomination in Perth-Wellington.

Who is Ethan Georges?

 

 

?????

Ethan Georges wrote a new note: Why I left the Conservatives and am now running for the NDP.

terrytowel

Should be noted that Ford Nation makes up about 25% of committed NDP voters.

nicky

terryT, this marks the 100th time you have posted this dubious statistic.

Congratulations. You will the prize for most persistent repetition.

Stockholm

Really? Half of NDP support across Canada is in Quebec and you're saying a quarter of those people are part of Ford Nation?? I hadn't realized Ford had such a following in Quebec

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