Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

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JohnInAlberta JohnInAlberta's picture

mmphosis wrote:

NDP now favoured in new polls and seat projection (threehundredeight.com)

 

I just had a "holycrapholycrapholycrap!" moment when I saw this; I hadn't visited 308 for a while, as they were on vacation, but ... holycrapholycrapholycrap!

I know October 19 is a long ways away, but this is bloody amazing!!!  Can I truly have faith in my fellow Canadians this election?

Rokossovsky

Pondering wrote:

From the looks of this you should be feeling as confident as the Liberals did way back when.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

 

I am satisfied that public support has followed the course that I predicted it would way back in October, when the Liberals started losing traction, despite your confident appraisal that they had just met a bump in the road.

Now, the NDP needs to keep the pot on low simmer throughout the summer while Justin and his hapless advisors try gamey tricks like stealing the Green Party of Canada campaign colours in order to dig themselves out of the whole.

NDP would be wise to keep their powder dry, and come on strong in September when the campaign really begins.

They have a good chance at a majority, and it is what we need in order to avoid any coalition hijinx caused by Liberal lack of resolve in the post election aftermath. That is definitely a struggle.

socialdemocrati...

Rokossovsky wrote:

NDP would be wise to keep their powder dry, and come on strong in September when the campaign really begins.

The timing could work out yet. The attacks are coming on strong now, but people are tuning out for the summer. By August, we'll have the first debate, and Mulcair's biography, which will give him a little more press and a chance to introduce himself to more Canadians. There's reasons to believe they'll go into September in a tie for first place, if not the lead they currently have right now.

Brachina

 The attacks also suck and are all over the place compared to the more focused attacks on Trudeau.

nicky
josh

NDP 31 CPC 27 LPC 26

mark_alfred

Brachina wrote:

 The attacks also suck and are all over the place compared to the more focused attacks on Trudeau.

That's true.  Like I said in another thread, both the Libs and Cons feel that support for the NDP is more fair-weather.

NorthReport

EKOS is wrong - the Liberals are only up 0.6%, Liberals are not up 2%, and Liberals are in last place, and  is less than the NDP increase

 

Last poll was two weeks ago. 

NDP up 0.7 from 30.2

Cons down 2.1 from 29.4

Libs up 0.6 from 25.0

Thanks nicky

 

 

josh
Pierre C yr

I kinda find it strange we still only see attacks ads on Trudeau and none on Mulcair save that old story. Whats taking that huge tory pile of money war machine so long? Keeping their powder dry?

Brachina

 They testing ideas, but nothing is sticking.

mark_alfred

Pierre C yr wrote:

I kinda find it strange we still only see attacks ads on Trudeau and none on Mulcair save that old story. Whats taking that huge tory pile of money war machine so long? Keeping their powder dry?

Ontario was where the Cons won it last time.  In Ontario the Libs are still a more competitive threat to Con votes than are the NDP.

jerrym

mark_alfred wrote:

Pierre C yr wrote:

I kinda find it strange we still only see attacks ads on Trudeau and none on Mulcair save that old story. Whats taking that huge tory pile of money war machine so long? Keeping their powder dry?

Ontario was where the Cons won it last time.  In Ontario the Libs are still a more competitive threat to Con votes than are the NDP.

Not according to the just released EKOS poll which has the NDP in the lead in Ontario with 33%, the Cons at 30% and the Liberals at 29%.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/ekos-a-renewed-three-way-race-with-encour...

 

mark_alfred

I see EKOS corrected the misleading headline they previously had for this poll (that NR pointed out), which is good -- though they still haven't corrected the false Liberal +2 reading (it's in fact only +0.6). 

Yeah, they have the NDP in the lead in Ontario (in still a close three way race).  Forum however has the NDP way down in Ontario.  Forum's Ontario scores are:

Forum (Ontario, June 29)

Party   Score

NDP    19%

Lib      31%

Con     33%

EKOS scores for Ontario are:

EKOS (Ontario, June 28)

Party    Score

NDP     33.4%

Lib      28.9%

Con     30.2%

So, regarding the NDP in Ontario, it's a huge difference between the two polling firms.

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

So what's a good headline for this week's polling results:

Mulcair-led NDP continues to lead as Bar-B-Q season starts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Pierre C yr

mark_alfred wrote:

Pierre C yr wrote:

I kinda find it strange we still only see attacks ads on Trudeau and none on Mulcair save that old story. Whats taking that huge tory pile of money war machine so long? Keeping their powder dry?

Ontario was where the Cons won it last time.  In Ontario the Libs are still a more competitive threat to Con votes than are the NDP.

 

My suspicions are that internal party polling doesnt have us that high. And we can see that somewhat from the significant variability we are seeing in public polls where we are anywhere from 30 to 36% in the same week... Its nice to be ahead but we arent always that far ahead. Regionals as we see are even more variable...

GTY

mark_alfred wrote:

I see EKOS corrected the misleading headline they previously had for this poll (that NR pointed out), which is good -- though they still haven't corrected the false Liberal +2 reading (it's in fact only +0.6). 

Yeah, they have the NDP in the lead in Ontario (in still a close three way race).  Forum however has the NDP way down in Ontario.  Forum's Ontario scores are:

Forum (Ontario, June 29)

Party   Score

NDP    19%

Lib      31%

Con     33%

EKOS scores for Ontario are:

EKOS (Ontario, June 28)

Party    Score

NDP      33.4%

Lib      28.9%

Con      30.2%

So, regarding the NDP in Ontario, it's a huge difference between the two polling firms.

Actually Forum has the following Federal Vote Preference for Ontario:

Party  Score

NDP     27%

Lib       35%

Con     32%

The numbers showing the NDP at 19% are for "Expected Federal Election Party Winner" which is on page 11 of the .pdf file:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%...

 

For Ontario, EKOS draws upon a sample size of 431 respondents and a 4.7% margin of error, while Fourm uses 338 respondents with a margin of error of 5.3%.

But I am suspicious of Forum polls and why they never have the Liberals in third place like all the other polling firms.

NorthReport

You have to work at it every day,
be respectful of the voters
never assume you are going to win

NorthReport

Bingo!

You nailed it GTY.

Of concern as well is then 308 uses the Forum Pop Vote stats for their own Pop Vote and Seat Projections stats.  

But who cares, as long as it makes the Liberals look stronger than they actually are, eh!  Frown

Garbage in = Garbage out I suppose

GTY wrote:

But I am suspicious of Forum polls and why they never have the Liberals in third place like all the other polling firms.

bekayne

GTY wrote:

But I am suspicious of Forum polls and why they never have the Liberals in third place like all the other polling firms.

All the others? Three other pollsters have reported in the past couple of weeks. Ipsos has the Liberals second, Environics has them tied for second, EKOS has them 1.7% behind second. Or are you basing this on an Angus Reid poll that's nearly a month old?

NorthReport

m_a

Forum is actually showing NDP at 27% support in Ontario as GTY has pointed out.

Here's the thing about EKOS though, apart from fact that were showing the Liberals with a 2% increase when it was only a 0.6% increase, and yes they have finally corrected that, the NDP increased their support by a higher percentage than the Liberals in yesterday's poll, but EKOS is still showing the following headline a day later on their website:

Race Narrowing Again

LIBERAL PARTY REBOUNDS, NOW TIED WITH CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE IN DANGER OF SLIPPING INTO THIRD

 

We know people read headlines much more often than complete articles, does anyone know by what percentage, so let's take the 2 sentences in the headlines to see if they actually are indicative of what the polling results show:

 

1 -  Race Narrowing Again 

On Jun 16 the spread between 1st place and last place was 4.2%

On Jun 29 the spread between 1st place and last place was 4.4%

So yes, technically the spread narrowed by 0.2%, but this is the main headline. Come off it  - that is a very misleading headline.

 

2 - LIBERAL PARTY REBOUNDS, NOW TIED WITH CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE IN DANGER OF SLIPPING INTO THIRD

The Liberals moved up 0.6%, that is less than the NDP did, and the Liberals are in third place

So yes, once again technically the Liberals moved up all of 0.6%, but that was less than the NDP increase, the Liberals are still in third place, and this is a capitalized headline. Once again a very misleading headline.

 

After having analysed EKOS' polling results from Jun 29 '15, and compared them to the previous EKOS poll on Jun 16 '15, what do you think EKOS' game is here, what do you think the headline should say?

 

mark_alfred wrote:

I see EKOS corrected the misleading headline they previously had for this poll (that NR pointed out), which is good -- though they still haven't corrected the false Liberal +2 reading (it's in fact only +0.6). 

Yeah, they have the NDP in the lead in Ontario (in still a close three way race).  Forum however has the NDP way down in Ontario.  Forum's Ontario scores are:

Forum (Ontario, June 29)

Party   Score

NDP    19%

Lib      31%

Con     33%

EKOS scores for Ontario are:

EKOS (Ontario, June 28)

Party    Score

NDP     33.4%

Lib      28.9%

Con     30.2%

So, regarding the NDP in Ontario, it's a huge difference between the two polling firms.

NorthReport

So, as a result of the EKOS poll misleading headlines we then get this:

 

Justin Trudeau's Liberals Getting Their Groove Back, Polls Suggest

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/07/03/liberal-party-justin-trudeau-eko...

 

Then we get this:

 

Frank Graves ‏@VoiceOfFranky  15h15 hours ago

Liberals getting their groove back, polls suggest http://huff.to/1FYJJwt  via @HuffPostCanada

 

And then of course 308 will probably jump on it, and before you know it the CBC will be discussing it on the At issues Panel.

 

It seems almost as if it is orchestrated, doesn't it?

Liberal support is then probably over-estimated, and the NDP, perhaps not so much.

------------------

16,500

Sean in Ottawa

Is anyone shocked?

Would you have a polling company if you were not inrerested in politics? (Hard to imagine people with a mind to want to do political polling and have no interest in politics)

Would a person interested in politics not a have a preference?

Knowing the power of headlines would you, if you had a polling company, really resist the tempation to tweak the headline help your party?

Again I ask -- is anyone shocked?

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

I have frequently heard from one side of the political spectrum that politics is all about who gets the next government contract. All the other stuff is just pablum for the masses. Apart from ensuring the rich stay rich of course.

Like in a newspaper it is primarily about the ads they sell, although they do make sure to have the right-wing perspective often 24/7 in the articles surrounding the ads.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Is anyone shocked?

Would you have a polling company if you were not inrerested in politics? (Hard to imagine people with a mind to want to do political polling and have no interest in politics)

Would a person interested in politics not a have a preference?

Knowing the power of headlines would you, if you had a polling company, really resist the tempation to tweak the headline help your party?

Again I ask -- is anyone shocked?

 

NorthReport

Here's another thing about EKOS.

Compare each political party to see in what order their data is presented, compared to either the previous election or the current polls:

Party / GE '11 / Polls / EKOS 

NDP / 2nd / 1st / 3rd

Cons / 1st / 2nd / 2nd

Libs / 3rd / 3rd / 1st 

 

Someone sure likes the Liberals.  Laughing

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Brachina wrote:

 The attacks also suck and are all over the place compared to the more focused attacks on Trudeau.

That's true.  Like I said in another thread, both the Libs and Cons feel that support for the NDP is more fair-weather.

Other than core, all support is fair-weather prior to the actual campaign. The conservatives are heavily invested in the "not ready" campaign which is aimed at blue Liberals, the group that put Harper over the top in 2011. There is no big expense in continuing that approach. They want to drill it in so that when policy comes out it won't matter because no matter what the policy is "he's not ready" will be the primary counter argument just as "not a leader" and "just visiting" made Liberal policy irrelevant in the past. The NDP has jumped on it too for the same reason. It was the only approach available because Trudeau refused to put out policy. The NDP joined in because it was easy.

Keeping the attacks on him personally was deliberate on the part of the Liberals. Part of me thinks they drove it too far but another thinks they were and still are right to have done so.

The Liberals are betting on the fact that Trudeau can easily shake that off during the campaign through presenting and defending policy. Trudeau is nothing like Dion or Ignatieff. Trudeau knows how to sell himself. He has enormous self-confidence and dismisses criticism with his father's shrug (figuratively speaking) which drives conservatives wild. He wants them frothing at the mouth.

Having the NDP join the Conservatives in "personal attacks" that don't focus on policy feeds into Trudeau's narrative. He will counter those attacks by focusing back on policy and reiterating that Canadians are tired of the politics of division and fear.

A major policy point between the NDP and the Liberals will be daycare. Big bonus to the Liberals that the NDP plan came out so far in advance. They must counter it with something that will be more attractive to the middle class than what the NDP has on offer. The environment, First Nations, pharmacare and income inequality round out the issues that moderate progressive votes rest on.

The attack ads on Dion and Ignatieff resulted in voters not even looking at policy. I don't think that is going to happen this time around. Trudeau is too presentable and too Canadian for that to work. How well Trudeau does in the Macleans debate will help me determine his likely fate.

I don't expect numbers to change dramatically as a result because people will be focused on summer fun not politics. It will provide strong clues as to how prepared he is for the fall campaign. It won't be a problem if there are potential "gaffe" clips from taking him out of context. It doesn't matter if he looks as prime ministerial as Harper and Mulcair. It doesn't matter if he "wins" arguments. He does have to appear serious and knowledgable. That will determine whether or not he can shake off the "not ready" label in the fall. If he does that then he makes all the attacks from both the Conservatives and NDP for the past two years look like cheap personal shots.

Trudeau has been very candid from the start, even before the Brazeau fight he said that people underestimating him has been a tactical advantage. He wouldn't talk trash, he didn't brag that he would win, but he said he had been training to win and that he believed he could win or he wouldn't have set up the fight.

Trudeau entered this fight to win it.

The Conservatives attack on Mulcair and the NDP is obvious and will coincide with their expanding attack on the Liberals that will occur as soon as policy is out. That both are spendthrifts that will increase taxes and throw the country back into deficit now that the Conservatives have finally balanced the budget. If the Liberals are bad, the NDP are quite obviously worse. So, there is no need to start campaigning against the NDP early even though they are in first place.

NorthReport

Manitoba - Probe Research Federal Poll

Cons - 43%, Up 1%

Libs - 29%, Down 3%

NDP - 23%, Up 1%

NorthReport

With a lot less time available than we realize until voting begins, here is the latest polling at the end of this week, with the NDP leading in the 9 most recent polls, and the NDP leading in 10 out of the last 11 polls

Note the following:

Ipsos Reid on Apr 7, first showed the NDP polling at 25%

Nanos Reasearch on Apr 17, then showed the NDP polling at 25%

Angus Reid's most recent poll on June 7, first showed the NDP polling at 35% or better, 36% actually

Ipsos-Reid's most recent poll on Jun 23, then showed the NDP polling at 35%

 

Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid, when protecting against herding, are one, two, the most accurate federal pollsters 

Liberal supporters of course are not big fans of these pollsters. I wonder why.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

With a lot less time available than we realize until voting begins, here is the latest polling at the end of this week, with the NDP leading in the 9 most recent polls, and the NDP leading in 10 out of the last 11 polls

How so? Is the election not going to be October 19th?

NorthReport

But it's in the leadership area that is truly staggering for the Liberals:

 

Leadership Net Approval:

Mulcair: 29%

Harper: 22%

Trudeau: only 4%

https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/ekos-a-renewed-three-way-race-with-encou...

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

NorthReport wrote:

But it's in the leadership area that is truly staggering for the Liberals:

 

Leadership Net Approval:

Mulcair: 29%

Harper: 22%

Trudeau: only 4%

https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/ekos-a-renewed-three-way-race-with-encou...

Harper is actually at -21, much lower than Trudeau's +4.

adma

Actually, at this point if there's any bounceback to the Grits, it may be more due to the default factor of the Cons getting too "Mother Canada" for voters' liking...

NorthReport

Yes, you're correct MM.

Thanks, my mistake.

So the story rather is then how well Mulcair is doing in the leadership net approval categoty. 

Mulcair  / +29%

Trudeau /  +4%

Harper  / -22%

 

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

But it's in the leadership area that is truly staggering for the Liberals:

Leadership Net Approval:

Mulcair: 29%

Harper: 22%

Trudeau: only 4%

https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/03/ekos-a-renewed-three-way-race-with-encou...

Your attempt to paint this poll as a negative for the Liberals is a great big fail for anyone who actually reads the article.

Finally, we updated our tracking on which party holds the best and clearest plan. While no party holds a distinct advantage here, it is notable that the Liberal Party has succeeded in improving its standing by two to four points on all three indicators. While none of these improvements on their own is statistically significant, the fact that the party has improved its reputation across the board is highly noteworthy. Indeed, it appears that the Liberals have managed to raise the volume and clarity of their plans for Canadians and this previously muted connection was probably as or more important than any other factor in their fall from voter grace over the past few months.

It seems the release of Liberal policies is having an impact and the following is interesting and shows promise for progressive policies.

To me the following is related to the NDP's early platform announcements. Could be solid but could easily be impacted by policy announcements from the other parties especially the Liberals.

On job approval:

Job approval ratings are malleable and will be impacted by the debates, policy releases and interviews. I think those of you who have bought your own propaganda painting Trudeau as almost a simpleton are in for as rude a surprise as Brazeau was. Mulcair is an able politician too and the NDP hasn't rolled out their entire platform by a longshot.

NorthReport

mark_alfred,

Forum is actually showing NDP at 27% support in Ontario as GTY has pointed out.

Here's the thing about EKOS though, apart from fact that were showing the Liberals with a 2% increase when it was only a 0.6% increase, and yes they have finally corrected that, the NDP increased their support by a higher percentage than the Liberals in yesterday's poll, but EKOS is still showing the following headline a day later on their website:

Race Narrowing Again

LIBERAL PARTY REBOUNDS, NOW TIED WITH CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE IN DANGER OF SLIPPING INTO THIRD

 

We know people read headlines much more often than complete articles, does anyone know by what percentage, so let's take the 2 sentences in the headlines to see if they actually are indicative of what the polling results show:

 

1 -  Race Narrowing Again 

On Jun 16 the spread between 1st place and last place was 4.2%

On Jun 29 the spread between 1st place and last place was 4.4%

So yes, technically the spread narrowed by 0.2%, but this is the main headline. Come off it  - that is a very misleading headline.

 

2 - LIBERAL PARTY REBOUNDS, NOW TIED WITH CONSERVATIVES WHO ARE IN DANGER OF SLIPPING INTO THIRD

The Liberals moved up 0.6%, that is less than the NDP did, and the Liberals are in third place

So yes, once again technically the Liberals moved up all of 0.6%, but that was less than the NDP increase, the Liberals are still in third place, and this is a capitalized headline. Once again a very misleading headline.

 

After having analysed EKOS' polling results from Jun 29 '15, and compared them to the previous EKOS poll on Jun 16 '15, what do you think EKOS' game is here? 


My suggestion for a more accurate headline would be:

NDP continues to lead, while Conservatives drop


What do you think the headline should say?

 

mark_alfred wrote:

I see EKOS corrected the misleading headline they previously had for this poll (that NR pointed out), which is good -- though they still haven't corrected the false Liberal +2 reading (it's in fact only +0.6). 

Yeah, they have the NDP in the lead in Ontario (in still a close three way race).  Forum however has the NDP way down in Ontario.  Forum's Ontario scores are:

Forum (Ontario, June 29)

Party   Score

NDP    19%

Lib      31%

Con     33%

EKOS scores for Ontario are:

EKOS (Ontario, June 28)

Party    Score

NDP     33.4%

Lib      28.9%

Con     30.2%

So, regarding the NDP in Ontario, it's a huge difference between the two polling firms.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Yes, you're correct MM.

Thanks, my mistake.

So the story rather is then how well Mulcair is doing in the leadership net approval categoty. 

Mulcair  / +29%

Trudeau /  +4%

Harper  / -22%

Net doesn't matter except in a ranked ballot system in which second choice matters. If the 44% who approve of Trudeau vote for him he wins. How many people don't approve doesn't matter. 58% approve of Mulcair but clearly they don't all intend to vote for him.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Manitoba - Probe Research Federal Poll

Cons - 43%, Up 1%

Libs - 29%, Down 3%

NDP - 23%, Up 1%

http://www.probe-research.com/documents/150703%20Federal%20Voting%20Inte...

NorthReport

With a lot less time available than we realize until voting begins, here is the latest polling at the end of this week, with the NDP leading in the 9 most recent polls, and the NDP leading in 10 out of the last 11 polls

Note the following:

Ipsos Reid on Apr 7, first showed the NDP polling at 25%

Nanos Research on Apr 17, then showed the NDP polling at 25%

Angus Reid's most recent poll on June 7, first showed the NDP polling at 35% or better, 36% actually

Ipsos-Reid's most recent poll on Jun 23, then showed the NDP polling at 35%

 

Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid, when protecting against herding, are one, two, the most accurate federal pollsters 

Liberal supporters of course are not big fans of these pollsters. I wonder why.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

 

These polling companies who are polling weekly often don't pick up support for a certain party whereas pollsters who are polling less frequently do.

Why is that?

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Yes, you're correct MM.

Thanks, my mistake.

So the story rather is then how well Mulcair is doing in the leadership net approval categoty. 

Mulcair  / +29%

Trudeau /  +4%

Harper  / -22%

Net doesn't matter except in a ranked ballot system in which second choice matters. If the 44% who approve of Trudeau vote for him he wins. How many people don't approve doesn't matter. 58% approve of Mulcair but clearly they don't all intend to vote for him.

This is a good point -- to a point. The disapproval suggests that there is limited upside growth possible beyond what is there.

In the case of Trudeau who has enough who approve to win at least in theory this may not matter. However when it comes to Harper, you can see the hostility is so great that a bounceback would be impossible.

This is a leading indicator and party leaders are important. The take away here is correct that both Trudeau and Mulcair are approved by enough people that they do not provide an obstacle to their party improving at least modestly. Both lead their parties by more than 20 points. Harper on the other hand does not lead his party in approval by as much as ten points.

This is reflecting what I have been saying for a while -- Trudeau definitely has problems and Mulcair definitely has an advantage at the moment at least. However, the real story is what the public think of Harper. His party is quite unpopular now, he is very much central to why they feel that way (as we can see in polls like this) and the Conservatives have little room to maneuvre. In fact hardly anyone is listening to them anymore.

The Conservatives have a few advantages that make people not want to write them off:

1) they are committed to win by hook or by crook -- they do not mind getting dirty and dishonest

2) they have a ton of money and more flexibility on how they spend it (see point 1)

3) they have advantages as the sitting government to direct the public focus and they are willing to pervert the national agenda to their party benefit (see point 1)

4) they appeal to a large minority of people who vote on greed, selfishness, intolerance and hate. These people are beyond moral argument as they simply do not care what is required to meet their objective. And if what is required is not fair or reasonable... (see point 1)

But if it were not for these factors -- people would be writing Harper's political obituary right now. These are very bad numbers for a sitting government that has been in power for a decade and is just about to face an election.

For Trudeau the election is possible -- it is a long shot.

For Harper -- only outright theft of the election would save him. The problem is none of us think he is beyond that.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid, when protecting against herding, are one, two, the most accurate federal pollsters 

Liberal supporters of course are not big fans of these pollsters. I wonder why.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The highest any pollster has the Liberals is 29%-Ipsos

NorthReport

?

mark_alfred

Thanks NR and GTY.  Seems I misread the Forum results.  Glad to see that Forum also shows the NDP running close in Ontario.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

This is a good point -- to a point. The disapproval suggests that there is limited upside growth possible beyond what is there.

.....

For Trudeau the election is possible -- it is a long shot.

Not so. There was no "neutral" answer, two choices, approve or disapprove. Trudeau has much better than a longshot. The election hasn't even been called yet, Trudeau is not that far behind and he has only begun to role out his platform.

NorthReport

In 3rd place and not ready to govern
Humm.........

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

This is a good point -- to a point. The disapproval suggests that there is limited upside growth possible beyond what is there.

.....

For Trudeau the election is possible -- it is a long shot.

Not so. There was no "neutral" answer, two choices, approve or disapprove. Trudeau has much better than a longshot. The election hasn't even been called yet, Trudeau is not that far behind and he has only begun to role out his platform.

Between 8 and 11% disagree. In polling you do not have to offer the neutral option, you can probe for a choice but you have to take the neutral when given. Clearly almost one in ten did.

Many have written Trudeau off. He has slid very badly and is in second or third depending on the polls. The long term trend has been very bad if you look over the last year -- the trend of steadily sliding from what was a long honeymoon. His party is the third party and in clear decline when you look at any long term trend.

I don't look out of line calling his hopes a long shot. If anything, there will be rational people who would question how much of a shot that is. However, I have said that the Libeals are still in it but it is not "short" shot at all. A long shot is a fair assessment. You saying it isn't is laughable.

BTW you might have to go after this comment as well.

"To believe Trudeau could take the Liberals back to power in a single step this October, you have had to believe he could at least triple his party’s seat count. That was always a long shot. Now it feels more like one."

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/justin-trudeau-liberal-leader-two...

Now at this point the Liberals have less money than the Conservatives, have had a long term trend go in the wrong direction in the polls recently, they have the least number of incumbants and their leader has a way of saying things that create negative news stories. They have a shot but it is a long shot. The only reason why they even have a shot at all is becuase in this election all the parties have negatives and you could argue that for the other two to win it would also be a long shot (each for different reasons). The only thing that keeps them all in is that one of these long shots have to win. That said the Conservatives fight dirty, have the most incumbants, have the highest loyal voters, and the most money. The NDP have the most popular leader now, have had a good run in the polls leading up to the election and good trends for them, they also have a lower rate of making stupid mistakes.

So of the three long shots you could argue that the Liberals may be the longest -- although I can well frame, as I have in the past, why others could be considered longer. But most people do not pretend that the Liberals are facing anything other than a long shot.

There is that fine line between being a Liberal cheerleader and just being foolish. You seem to be on the wrong side of that line often these days.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:
In 3rd place and not ready to govern Humm.........

Is that your mantra?

Pierre C yr

Regarding Trudeau's platform it is starting to resemble a lot of what the NDP did in its platforms in the past. A wide range of fairly revolutionary policies. And what was used to describe us by the libs and tories as a protest party. A message that took hold for a long time in the public's imagination about us. If the libs keep coming out with these huge policy promises that most of us here know they wont keep, it may well backfire on them and get them be described at some point as a protest party and not worthy of serious consideration either.

People want practical solutions. At this point the NDP's modest proposals seem more fit to that notion.

 

 

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