Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

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Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Now at this point the Liberals have less money than the Conservatives, have had a long term trend go in the wrong direction in the polls recently, they have the least number of incumbants and their leader has a way of saying things that create negative news stories.

They have more money than the NDP. The cause of the longterm trend is important. I am not alone in thinking that it is due to lack of policy rather than any shortcomings of Trudeau. The lack of incumbants doesn't always hurt, especially when people are looking for a change.

Trudeau generates far more positive news stories than negative ones.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
They have a shot but it is a long shot. The only reason why they even have a shot at all is becuase in this election all the parties have negatives and you could argue that for the other two to win it would also be a long shot (each for different reasons). The only thing that keeps them all in is that one of these long shots have to win.

If they are all longshots then none are. They all have a shot.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
That said the Conservatives fight dirty, have the most incumbants, have the highest loyal voters, and the most money.

They also have the burden of a decade of scandals and the loss of many key players. Nigel Wright will be taking the stand, in mid-August I think. The economy is unlikely to improve. Climate change is upon us. He has been unable to get the big trade deals off the ground.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
The NDP have the most popular leader now, have had a good run in the polls leading up to the election and good trends for them, they also have a lower rate of making stupid mistakes.

We differ on what stupid mistakes are. I think raising the issue of the Unity Bill again was a mistake.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
So of the three long shots you could argue that the Liberals may be the longest -- although I can well frame, as I have in the past, why others could be considered longer. But most people do not pretend that the Liberals are facing anything other than a long shot.

You don't know what most people think of Trudeau's chances. Even if that were what most people think, it doesn't make them correct.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
There is that fine line between being a Liberal cheerleader and just being foolish. You seem to be on the wrong side of that line often these days.

There is a fine line between confidence and hubris. This comes down to an assessment of Trudeau's abilities, how well he will perform under campaign conditions and how good the Liberal platform will be. That is what this election rests on. My bet is that he will have a great platform and he will sell it and himself very well. Of course I have no proof of that, but that doesn't make me wrong. I have said that the August 6th debate will be very important not in terms of immediate impact but in terms of judging Trudeau's readiness for the campaign and the position. One of us will be confirmed correct although we may not agree which one of us it is.

Polls are based on "if the election were held today" and on answers given lightly without much thought. They are significant, there is no doubt that the NDP has reason to feel optimistic. I think Harper has a very slim chance of winning again. I am much more confident that our next government will be the Liberals or the NDP, not Harper.

Policy and performance are going to matter a great deal. If you think the Liberals and Trudeau will fail in that regard then you have every reason to believe they will stay down and maybe even drop farther. If like me you think that Trudeau is again being underestimated and he will come out swinging when the time is ripe then there is every reason to believe that Trudeau will bounce back as soon as people catch up on his policy positions and he releases more. It's certainly not foolish to think it will make a difference. I am not alone in believing Trudeau's drop has been due to lack of policy.

 

Sean in Ottawa

In many cases it is not that they are that bad -- it is just that you cannot believe them and they smell of desperation.

Pondering

Pierre C yr wrote:

Regarding Trudeau's platform it is starting to resemble a lot of what the NDP did in its platforms in the past. A wide range of fairly revolutionary policies. And what was used to describe us by the libs and tories as a protest party. A message that took hold for a long time in the public's imagination about us. If the libs keep coming out with these huge policy promises that most of us here know they wont keep, it may well backfire on them and get them be described at some point as a protest party and not worthy of serious consideration either.

People want practical solutions. At this point the NDP's modest proposals seem more fit to that notion.

I don't recall any pundits claiming his plans so far are undoable, certainly not a significant number of them. If anything they are being received with cautious support as practical solutions. In particular his senate plan has been called the only practical solution.

I think it will be hilarious if the Liberals get called a protest party but I really doubt that will ever happen even if the NDP is becoming more right wing.

Pierre C yr

I cant help but think its part of the reason the libs finally cratered. C-51 is getting way too much credit. The libs get a lot of indulgence from the media and it wont be stated openly at first. But the public is already there. They are moving before the pundits saw it coming or even acknowledged it in mnay cases and would just as much think it before the pundits printed it.

A lot of things are doable. Pretty much everything the NDP stated as policy in the last 50 years was in fact pretty moderate. But when you want to change too much in one fell swoop you get labelled a protest party. Not everything needs to be changed in Ottawa. In most cases its just slight changes and improvements. Or keeping things that are already there from being taken away.

 

NorthReport

This just touches on the polling aspects but worth reading the whole article.

Quote:
Yet looking at composite polls for the last three months, that might have been Harper’s best window for an election. One poll tracker published numbers at the weekend showing the Conservatives down five points from April through June, from 33 to 28 per cent; while the NDP were up 10 points from 23 to 33 per cent; and the Liberals were down four points from 31 to 27 per cent.

These numbers align with the new EKOS poll for iPolitics released on Friday, with the NDP at 31 per cent, the Conservatives at 28 per cent and the Liberals at 26 per cent.

 

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/05/october-election-is-harpers-self-inflicte...

NorthReport

NDP just needs to keep working hard and smart, don't take anything for granted, and be respectful of the voters. 

Opinion: Election becoming NDP’s to lose

 

Monday cartoon

http://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/5707334-opinion-election-becoming...

mark_alfred

308 notes that the Greens seem to have lost some support.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/whither-greens.html

Stockholm

mark_alfred wrote:

308 notes that the Greens seem to have lost some support.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/whither-greens.html

Yippee!

David Young

Stockholm wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

308 notes that the Greens seem to have lost some support.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/whither-greens.html

Yippee!

Agreed!

 

Sean in Ottawa

David Young wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

308 notes that the Greens seem to have lost some support.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/whither-greens.html

Yippee!

Agreed!

 

I see no evidence that this is a transfer of support to the NDP. The NDP is in reach of government and Greens who also believe in PR could well lend their support to the NDP to help make that happen. They could also decide not to do that based on this kind of crowing. I am fine to see Greens a party that at times drifts to the right -- come closer to the NDP. For this reason I'll tame any smugness regarding what might be the formation of a coalition around the NDP to replace Harper and put in some progress to democratic reform. There are also a good number of Liberals looking at the NDP for the same reason. The NDP could afford to be welcoming to political refugees and visitors.

NorthReport

NDP needs to continue to doing what they are doing and to grow to obtain that majority government, but excellent results nevertheless.

Anatomy of the NDP Surge

 

NorthReport

What are TCN's seat projections now?

Stockholm

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

David Young wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

308 notes that the Greens seem to have lost some support.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/whither-greens.html

Yippee!

Agreed!

 

I see no evidence that this is a transfer of support to the NDP. The NDP is in reach of government and Greens who also believe in PR could well lend their support to the NDP to help make that happen. They could also decide not to do that based on this kind of crowing. I am fine to see Greens a party that at times drifts to the right -- come closer to the NDP. For this reason I'll tame any smugness regarding what might be the formation of a coalition around the NDP to replace Harper and put in some progress to democratic reform. There are also a good number of Liberals looking at the NDP for the same reason. The NDP could afford to be welcoming to political refugees and visitors.

I don't actually dislike the Green party itself all that much. Its really all about Elizabeth May to me - truly the most arrogant, egotistical, sanctimonious phony on the Canadian political scene. The only way i would ever consider voting Conservative would be if it was clear the CPC was going to be crushed nationwide but i lived in Saanich-Gulf Islands it it looked like a dead heat between Elizabeth Me and some Tory candidate.

NorthReport

Murky, contradictory poll results, weird timing, unlikely to divert media from dubious narrative about Alberta NDP


http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2015/07/murky-contradictory...

NorthReport
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

So why is the Bloc resurgent? Do Quebeckers really think that the Bloc is their best voice in the house? Do they think by extension the implication that they should just say the hell with the rest of Canada, give us what we want or we'll throw a wrench in the works? Could the Bloc out poll the NDP on election day? What is going on?

mark_alfred

One thing I noticed is this:

Quote:

In terms of accessible voters – voters who say they would consider voting for a certain party – Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are now sitting at a 12-month low. Just 43 per cent of those polled said they would consider voting for the Liberals, down more than 10 per cent from where they were at the beginning of the year.

So, as the Bloc rise, the NDP stays steady, and the Liberals dip a bit more.  Trend in Quebec?  I recall Hebert predicting this, though I haven't noticed it in the actual polls yet.

Pondering

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So why is the Bloc resurgent? Do Quebeckers really think that the Bloc is their best voice in the house? Do they think by extension the implication that they should just say the hell with the rest of Canada, give us what we want or we'll throw a wrench in the works? Could the Bloc out poll the NDP on election day? What is going on?

It could just be a desire to be nice to Gilles Duceppe for whom many Quebecers maintain great affection for. It could hold for the election but I wouldn't count on it. This could definitely be a temporary bounce.

Stockholm

Arthur Cramer wrote:

So why is the Bloc resurgent? Do Quebeckers really think that the Bloc is their best voice in the house? Do they think by extension the implication that they should just say the hell with the rest of Canada, give us what we want or we'll throw a wrench in the works? Could the Bloc out poll the NDP on election day? What is going on?

A lot of Nanos's "party power index" is driven by leadership (ie: best person for PM, does the leader have the qualities of a good leader etc...) and the fact is before Duceppe announced his comeback the BQ was led by a totally toxic bufoon named Mario Beaulieu who had rock bottom low ratings on every measure. Duceppe is a respected figure in Quebec - when you ask Quebecers whether Beaulieu had the qualities of a good leader - about 15% of Quebecers said Yes. When you ask that questions about Duceppe its about 45% - its not a zero sum game though - a lot of people who are still voting NDP (or CPC or Liberal) in Quebec would agree that Duceppe is a capable respected leader...doesnt mean they are going to vote for him though.

So its not that the BQ is actually doing all that well - in fact polls on vote intention stubbornly have them in the low 20s - which is what they got in 2011 when they were demolished - its just that with Duceppe they are getting a "dead cat bounce" compared to how under Beaulieu they were headed for single digits.

NorthReport

Nanos - Jul 3 

Power Party Index - Quebec

N - 60

L - 47

C - 44

B - 32

As well pollsters outside Quebec usually don't do that well there, and that's why CROP was created

NorthReport
NorthReport

NDP scores highest on Nanos Index – Bloc trending up in QC – Liberals hit 12 month low in accessible voters


Power Party Index

Party / 1 !r Ago / Jul 3 / Change

NDP / 48 / 55 / Up 7

Cons / 51 / 50 / Down 1

Libs / 57 / 51 / Down 6, and Down 13 against the NDP

 

Vote Consider

Party / 1 Tr Ago / Jul 3 / Change

NDP / 43% / 52% / Up 9%

Cons / 41% / 41% / Unchanged

Libs / 55% / 43% / Down 12%, and Down 21% against the NDP

 

Preferred PM

Leader / 1 Yr Ago / Jul 3 / Change

Mulcair / 18% / 27% / Up 9%

Harper / 29% / 27% / Down 2%

Trudeau / 30% / 26% / Down 4%, and Down 13% against Mulcair

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202...

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

NDP scores highest on Nanos Index – Bloc trending up in QC – Liberals hit 12 month low in accessible voters


Power Party Index

Party / 1 !r Ago / Jul 3 / Change

NDP / 48 / 55 / Up 7

Cons / 51 / 50 / Down 1

Libs / 57 / 51 / Down 6, and Down 13 against the NDP

 

Vote Consider

Party / 1 Tr Ago / Jul 3 / Change

NDP / 43% / 52% / Up 9%

Cons / 41% / 41% / Unchanged

Libs / 55% / 43% / Down 12%, and Down 21% against the NDP

 

Preferred PM

Leader / 1 Yr Ago / Jul 3 / Change

Mulcair / 18% / 27% / Up 9%

Harper / 29% / 27% / Down 2%

Trudeau / 30% / 26% / Down 4%, and Down 13% against Mulcair

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202...

If it were not for how bad things are for the other party I would be even more pessimistic for the Liberals or Conservatives.

At this point the best hope for either is the collapse of the other with them picking up at least some of the parts in order to compete with the NDP. It is true the NDP does better in a three-way race. A collapse of one of the LPC/CPC twins if deep enough would potentially provide the other with enough to get back in the game.

Alternately such a collapse might just put the NDP over the top into a majority. It could still go either way which is why I have not said it is over.

A new scandal or dumb statement by either the Liberals or the Conservatives could provide hope to the other if they lose the support of people who would never consider the NDP. This is what will make this election unpredictable to the end. For the NDP -- they have to be careful to make their attacks on the other two as equal in effect as possible in order not to bring the other back to life.

As it stands there are adequate storylines to predict a washout of either of those two parties as well as the knowledge that it won't happen to both at the same time. I'll predict now that one of them is going to get hurt very, very badly. I just can't yet predict which one: campaigns matter and they are both very fragile.

The NDP also has some downside risks from dirty tricks and a media that is clearly participating in rather than observing the campaign.

NorthReport

Conservatives keep running that Trudeau not ready to govern ad in BC

Rokossovsky

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
A new scandal or dumb statement by either the Liberals or the Conservatives could provide hope to the other if they lose the support of people who would never consider the NDP. This is what will make this election unpredictable to the end. For the NDP -- they have to be careful to make their attacks on the other two as equal in effect as possible in order not to bring the other back to life.

I disagree. This election is about who is to replace Harper. The NDP should concentrate most of its energy on the CPC so as to be seen as the champion of the campaign against Harper, with the Liberals as irrelevant sidekick. Better to ignore boy wonder that to burnish his image by making him seem relevant.

Rokossovsky

NDP viewed as clearest alternative to Conservatives, poll shows

Quote:
Fifty-two per cent of respondents said the NDP “represents the clearest change from the current Stephen Harper government.” The Liberal Party was far behind at 19 per cent, with the Green Party at 10 per cent.

Change – and who can best deliver it – will be an essential issue in the Oct. 19 election, with Prime Minister Stephen Harper countering that voters should opt for stability.

terrytowel

As I said before and I'll say it again

For the Liberals, IT'S OVER!

Pondering will you face facts now?

 

josh

Abacus: 

 

NDP 32

Cons 29

Libs 27

Greens 6

Bloc 6

 

Slide9

 

http://abacusdata.ca/canadian-politics-5-points-separate-3-contenders-new-poll-finds/

 

Stockholm

In the glass half full vs half empty department - I'm amazed that when asked which opposition party is the most experienced with being in government - the Liberals get 40% and the NDP 27% - not bad considering that the Liberals actually have been in power for most of the last century while the NDP hjas never been in power at the federal level at all.

mark_alfred

Great news.

NorthReport

In today's political news this is indeed significant. Reme,what Nate Silver keeps saying.

Represents Change

NDP - 52%

Libs - 19%, not much above the Greens.

Also look what the Liberal media pollster aggregator complex do whenever there is very good news for the NDP.  

Quote:
The NDP is seen as the party that offers the best-defined alternative to the Conservative government before an election in which Canadians will be asked to choose between political stability and renewal, a Globe and Mail/Nanos Research poll has found.

Fifty-two per cent of respondents said the NDP “represents the clearest change from the current Stephen Harper government.” The Liberal Party was far behind at 19 per cent, with the Green Party at 10 per cent.

www.globeandmail.com

 

josh

LDS

Misfit Misfit's picture

NR, 22% to 34% is an increase of 12% and not 14%.

NorthReport

Let's not forget one of Canada's accurate pollsters Angus Reid's latest poll shows the Liberals at only 23% support

Angus Reid:

Party / Dec 14 '14 / Jun 7 '16 / Change

NDP / 22% / 36% / Up 14%

Cons / 34% / 31% / Down 3%

Libs / 34% / 23% / Down 13%, or Liberals Down 27% against the NDP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Let's not forget one of Canada's accurate pollsters Angus Reid's latest poll shows the Liberals at only 23% support

Angus Reid:

Party / Dec 14 '14 / Jun 7 '16 / Change

NDP / 22% / 36% / Up 14%

Cons / 34% / 31% / Down 3%

Libs / 34% / 23% / Down 13%, or Liberals Down 27% against the NDP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

The NDP is doing great right now. There is no need to resort to a month old online poll to cheerlead.

NorthReport

Tks Misfit NDP is actually at 36%, not 34%

Let's not forget one of Canada's accurate pollsters Angus Reid's latest poll shows the Liberals at only 23% support

Angus Reid:

Party / Dec 14 '14 / Jun 7 '16 / Change

NDP / 22% / 36% / Up 14%

Cons / 34% / 31% / Down 3%

Libs / 34% / 23% / Down 13%, or Liberals Down 27% against the NDP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

 

NorthReport

Reaserch has shown Angus Reid is an accurate pollster.

When you see headlines that are not the relevant part of the results, it makes one wonder, doesn't it?

As far as today is concerned, the big news is the Nanos Poll showing the best alternative to the Conservatives:

NDP - 52%

Libs - 19%

NDP viewed as clearest alternative to Conservatives, poll shows

The NDP is seen as the party that offers the best-defined alternative to the Conservative government before an election in which Canadians will be asked to choose between political stability and renewal, a Globe and Mail/Nanos Research poll has found.

Fifty-two per cent of respondents said the NDP “represents the clearest change from the current Stephen Harper government.” The Liberal Party was far behind at 19 per cent, with the Green Party at 10 per cent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-viewed-as-clearest-alte...


Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Let's not forget one of Canada's accurate pollsters Angus Reid's latest poll shows the Liberals at only 23% support

Angus Reid:

Party / Dec 14 '14 / Jun 7 '16 / Change

NDP / 22% / 36% / Up 14%

Cons / 34% / 31% / Down 3%

Libs / 34% / 23% / Down 13%, or Liberals Down 27% against the NDP

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

The NDP is doing great right now. There is no need to resort to a month old online poll to cheerlead.

NorthReport

You can see the Liberals are seriously hurt by the Nanos poll out today showing that the NDP is far, far the best vehicle for change to stop the Cons.

So there is no more need for Leadnow or any of the other strategic voting nonsensical or Liberal organizations. All they will do now is confuse the voters and allow more Cons to be elected.

Josh's attempt to make a big splash about Abacus, to try and hide the big news of the Nanos poll, and Pondering's attack says it all.  Laughing

bekayne

Remember, that Nanos poll includes those who don't want any change-Conservative voters. So of that 52%, how many actually want change?

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S15-T646.pdf

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

In the glass half full vs half empty department - I'm amazed that when asked which opposition party is the most experienced with being in government - the Liberals get 40% and the NDP 27% - not bad considering that the Liberals actually have been in power for most of the last century while the NDP hjas never been in power at the federal level at all.

Assume that the 27% are NDP supporters. Partisanship is a wonderful drug.

NorthReport

bekayne,

Nanos today in their latest poll shows Liberals with only 25% support.  

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

bekayne,

Nanos today in their latest poll shows Liberals with only 25% support.  

Is this what you're talking about?

Confirming that Canada is headed for a three-way contest, the poll found a tight race to be the party with the “most appealing” policy platform. The NDP came in first at 28 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 27 per cent and the Liberals at 25 per cent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-viewed-as-clearest-alte...

Rokossovsky

bekayne wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

In the glass half full vs half empty department - I'm amazed that when asked which opposition party is the most experienced with being in government - the Liberals get 40% and the NDP 27% - not bad considering that the Liberals actually have been in power for most of the last century while the NDP hjas never been in power at the federal level at all.

Assume that the 27% are NDP supporters. Partisanship is a wonderful drug.

 

Or maybe people are well enough aware of the bullshit process of polling and answer for political effect and aren't simply stupid drones.

NorthReport

Canada's Political Trends:

Seats:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats


Canada's Political Trends:

Popular Vote:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

 

NorthReport

The best way to help ensure Harper gets re-elected is to follow the advice of Leadnow

Strategic voting misreads parliamentary democracy

Liberal Party is the only one to have repeatedly pushed voting 'strategically'

Many strategic voting proponents say they are not encouraging all who wish to defeat Harper to vote Liberal.

They want Canadians to vote for the non-Conservative most likely to win in their ridings -- assuming there was a reliable way to figure out who that was.

However, the only party that has habitually and repeatedly used the strategic voting argument is the Liberal Party.

Until very recently getting the anti-Harper vote behind the celebrity candidate Justin Trudeau -- based on the argument that only he could defeat the Conservatives -- was pretty much the Liberals' main campaign strategy.

One well-connected Liberal told this writer, months ago, that the party's pollsters assured Liberal headquarters that even recalcitrant francophone Quebeckers would eventually fall into line, once they saw that, for the rest of Canada, Trudeau's Liberals were the only way of kicking out Harper.

Now the Liberals have to go back to the drawing board, and they're getting a lot of advice from pundits.

CBC's The National devoted a whole At Issue panel to what to do about Trudeau's current dilemma.

They could not agree on anything, except on the fact that current polls only describe what is going on now, they do not predict the election in October.

Chantal Hébert pointed out that at this stage in 1993 Progressive Conservative Kim Campbell was leading in the polls. She went on to win two seats in that fall's election.

All three panelists did miss one important reason for Trudeau's dip in popularity: voting in favour of Bill C-51.

The mainstream media may not like Harper's so-called anti-terror legislation, but they can't seem to believe that opposition to it is motivating many voters.

Campaign workers who make calls on behalf of Liberal candidates are, however, getting lots of push back on C-51.

Liberal voters or potential voters do not seem to like the party's confused and almost hypocritical position one bit.

They are also turned off by Trudeau's pushing the candidacies of former Conservative Eve Adams and former Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair, and, of course, by the Liberal leader's too frequent verbal pratfalls.

And so, while this writer is sensitive to the sincerity, and even anguish, of those who want to do something to assure that Harper gets the boot in October, he cannot see a costly, massive national effort to encourage strategic voting as worth the candle.

Individual voters will, of course, make their own choices based on a great number of factors, one of which is how they think their neighbours will vote.

Good for them.

However, those who want to work, in an organized way, to unseat Harper next time can find much better outlets for their energies. 

 

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/karl-nerenberg/2015/05/strategic-voting-...

 

Here are the latest polling stats:

NDP leads in the 10 latest polls, and  NDP leads in 11 out of the 12 latest polls.

Liberals are last, or tied for last, in 8 out of the last 12 polls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

 

NorthReport

Canada Could see NDP Government if Trends Continue

He says when six out of ten Canadians say they would consider voting NDP, and with the most popular leader, the fundamentals are all in place.

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&id=55925&latest=1

NorthReport

More bad news for the Trudeau Liberals today in Ontario, as the Wynne Liberals are now polling in last place in Ontario.

NorthReport

We have been in election mode for the past six months and the polling results are showing it.

What's of interest is that the NDP are trending North, have been for months, and have the momentum going into the summer doldrums, and then basically the election.  

June 2015 federal polling averages

If the New Democrats prevail in October's election, June will have been the month where it became possible. For the first time since 2012, and thanks to some massive spikes in support in a few battleground regions of the country, the New Democrats led in the monthly averages last month.

NorthReport

Bingo!

Listening to, reading, or watching all the constant nonsensical negative words, and phrases in the mainstream media surrounding Mulcair and/or the NDP, every time the NDP continues to rise in the polls, it makes one wonder if they are so anti-NDP in their coverage, what are they actually distorting in the polling results, as the pollsters know we have absolutely no way to know for sure until the votes are counted on voting day. That is why my hunch is the NDP just might be stronger than these pollsters are indicating. How much stronger is anyone's guess, but two of Canada's top pollsters, Angus Reid, and Ipsos Reid are presently showing the NDP at 36%, and 35% respectively.

Rokossovsky wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

In the glass half full vs half empty department - I'm amazed that when asked which opposition party is the most experienced with being in government - the Liberals get 40% and the NDP 27% - not bad considering that the Liberals actually have been in power for most of the last century while the NDP hjas never been in power at the federal level at all.

Assume that the 27% are NDP supporters. Partisanship is a wonderful drug.

 

Or maybe people are well enough aware of the bullshit process of polling and answer for political effect and aren't simply stupid drones.

NorthReport

Agreed! Smile

Orange is the new alternative

Bruce Anderson and David Coletto from Abacus Data released a new trend line poll showing a consistent trend upward for the NDP, and a trend down for the Conservatives and Liberals. Even with stability (Conservatives) and a fresh faced leader (Liberals), they are still going down in the polls. This leads this pundit to believe that orange has become the new alternative, and a more permanent alternative to politics as usual.

http://www.cornwallnewswatch.com/2015/07/09/column-orange-is-the-new-alt...

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