Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

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Left Turn Left Turn's picture

nicky wrote:

federal NDP ahead in BC

NDP 35

Con 29

Lib 25

Gr 10

http://www.canada.com/mobile/iphone/story.html?id=11050670

I plugged these numbers into the [url=http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php]UBC Election Forecaster[/url], and folks, on these numbers, James Moore* is vulnerable. Yes, James Moore! Oh how I would LOVE to take that smug prig out!

*vulnerable, but by no means guaranteed to be defeated

nicky

The BC poll by Insights West, the Forum Ontario poll, the goofy Nanos index, the Alberta breaktrough. And now first palce in EKOS? And in the context of Liberal bleeding over C-51 and myriad Conservative problems. It may be too good to be true but there seems to be a trend.

I agree with Sean that the breaktrough may be much more than incremental. I have quoted the Hemingway quote a couple time recently  in this context. How did you go bankrupt? ...etc.

I have had the impression that the Liberals have been holding their support together with binding twine - very broad but shallow and vulnerable. If they do fall into third place all the subliminal doubts about Justin may well emerge wth a vengengeance. The Liberals will also lose their red door / blue door argument. The decline might be very precipitous like in 2011.

I hesitate writing this but.....

nicky
josh

Debater wrote:

Glen McGregor just posted this:

A big pollster has some stunning national horserace numbers out soon. Preliminary results have NDP out in front.

 

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/598672200951009280

That would result in an interesting seat breakdown. And the Green number is a tipoff that it's EKOS.

nicky

Significantly the Insights West poll had the Greens at 10% in BC, about half of what EKOS has recently put them at in that province. If in fact they are now at 9% nationally, much of that support will be soft and would likley drift to the NDP, especially if the NDP were seen to be a contender to win.

nicky

More confirmation about the EKOS poll not yet officially released:

Althia Raj
New Ekos poll has NDP ahead and three main parties in a statistical tie. The survey was conducted just after the historic NDP win in Alberta. The NDP is ahead in B.C. and far ahead in Quebec.

josh

‏@308dotcom           

Seems like both EKOS and Forum will be showing a three-way federal tie in their next poll releases.

Debater

As Paul Wells & other journalists are saying on Twitter this morning, some caution has to be exercised with this poll because it appears to have been leaked mid-week to the media before it was completed.  Friday is usually the day when EKOS releases a full week's worth of numbers.  So the full poll tomorrow may have different numbers once the additional days are tabulated.

Still, there's no doubt that it shows a shift in support.  I could see the support shifting last week myself when I made my announcement that I was quitting the Liberals after the C-51 vote, so I know for a fact that LPC has lost voters to the NDP over that.

It's possible some of the bounce will subside if some of it is from the Alberta NDP honeymoon.

It's also interesting to note that some of the NDP support seems to have come at the expense of the Cons since they're not doing so great in this poll, either.

nicky

@natnewswatch: A Forum poll set for release sometime today will also show the federal NDP on the rise.

socialdemocrati...

New poll puts federal NDP ahead of Tories and Liberals — suggesting Alberta election changed everything

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/new-poll-puts...

"The sharp uptake in the poll by the NDP is mirrored by a sudden drop in support for the Conservatives and Liberals, who have fought for the lead since Trudeau took the party’s reins."

 

Left vs Right is a myth. This shows that the electorate will reward a party who works hard for every voter, and sees them as more than just a notch to be pushed one way or another. The NDP isn't perfect. But at least they're moving the economy, the environment, our ethics, and our personal freedoms in the right direction. The other parties give us a choice between damaging those, or destroying them quickly.

Policywonk

They are still just talking about the preliminary results. But it will be interesting to see the regional results for both polls considering the Ontario NDP are ahead in the wake of the Ontario PC Leadership race. 

josh

Left vs Right is a myth

Yeah, keep telling yourself that.  The right sure as hell doesn't believe it is.

socialdemocrati...

Of course they believe it. They benefit from dividing the country into categories, claiming ownership of one, and painting the other as too extreme.

Most voters don't think in left-right. The biggest Con the right wing pulled was convincing working people that they share their values. But the jig is up. When voters hear that Corporations should pay a little more to invest in the Canada we want, they vastly prefer that to slashing our necessities to pay for more corporate tax giveaways.

And that's why they'll never understand how PC and Wildrose leaked votes to the NDP in Alberta. Or how two federal parties are now both leaking votes to the allegedly "far left".

 

 

Stockholm

All the details are here

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/14/the-ekos-poll-stunning-ndp-surge-puts...

NDP now has a big lead in Quebec, a slender lead in BC and at a very strong 27% in Ontario

Policywonk

Stockholm wrote:

All the details are here

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/14/the-ekos-poll-stunning-ndp-surge-puts...

NDP now has a big lead in Quebec, a slender lead in BC and at a very strong 27% in Ontario

Not quite in the lead but in a statistical tie with the Conservatives and Liberals. Now we will see what Forum shows. The big lead in Quebec bodes well for holding most of the seats currently held.

josh

The Cons getting 16% in Quebec is only one percent better than they did in 2011.

 

NDP at 25% and 28% in Alberta and Sask would mean about half a dozen pickups.

 

The 33-31-27 breakdown in Ontario would make things totally unpredictable.

nicky

Here are the EKOS regionals:

 

Embedded image permalink

jerrym

There are some very interesting insights from the BC poll:

  • a decrease in support for Cons among voters 55+ (the highest percentage voting group); 
  • the Liberals have risen in support compared to the last election, but not enough to be more than competitive in a couple of ridings becuase they are coming from so far behind in most ridings;
  • people are warming up to Mulcair as evidenced by high personal approval ratings and NDP support levels now above those of Layton in BC;
  • housing, poverty and homelessness, which are  all areas that NDP tend to focus on, is a major issue among 18-34 year olds, especially in Vancouver where housing prices are stratospheric; 
  • the NDP has a commanding 47% lead on Vancouver Island with Greens a distant second at 20% there; 
  • and the question of how May's Press Gallery speech's impact on Green support as the poll was done before her speech. Pollster Cancseco says “The Green voter probably agrees with most of what she said about the government, albeit not with the language she used. It’s a very different kind of voter. But it might scare people away from the Greens, people who might have been thinking of voting for the Greens.”

Quote:

Insights West vice-president Mario Canseco said federal Liberals have rebounded in B.C. under leader Justin Trudeau, but added it may not be enough for them to be competitive in more than a couple of ridings.

"The seat calculation makes this a lot tougher for the Liberals," he said. "You may be a closer third-place finisher than in the last election, but you're still a third-place finisher."

The poll found NDP leader Thomas Mulcair has the strongest approval score, ahead of Trudeau and May. ...

"The voting numbers point to an erosion of Conservative support among key demographics, particularly voters over the age of 55," Canseco said.

The race is tight in Metro Vancouver, where the poll found the Conservatives and NDP are tied with 32 per cent support of decided voters, followed by 27 per cent for the Liberals and seven per cent for the Greens.

On Vancouver Island, however, the NDP have a huge lead with 47 per cent support, followed by the Greens at 20 per cent, the Liberals at 19 per cent and the Conservatives at 14.

Elsewhere in B.C., the NDP leads with 36 per cent to 32 per cent for the Conservatives and 22 per cent leaning Liberal.

Poll respondents in Metro Vancouver said the most important issue was the economy and jobs, while slightly more on Vancouver Island and the rest of B.C. instead listed government accountability.

Harper and the Conservatives scored best on their handling of the economy, foreign affairs and crime, Canseco said, but poorly on poverty and homelessness, government accountability, the environment and the handling of energy and pipelines.

The poll surveyed 814 B.C. residents from May 7-9, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

http://www.vernonmorningstar.com/news/303646651.html

 

Quote:

NDP leader Thomas Mulcair fared particularly well in the poll, earning a 52-per-cent approval rating, edging out Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s 46 per cent and trouncing Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s 35 per cent.

“I think people are starting to warm up to what he’s going to bring to the table. He’s no longer being viewed as this aloof person who’s in Quebec,” pollster Mario Canseco said of Mulcair.

“He’s now on course to get more votes than what Jack Layton got in the last election here, so that’s definitely something that should make him happy.” ...

The challenge for Mulcair will be to prove that he’s more than just an effective opposition leader, according to Canseco. He has to prove he can lead the country to get the votes of people who’ve backed Harper for the last two or three elections. ...

The poll also shows a small increase in support for the Green party to 10 per cent of decided voters from 7.7 per cent in the last election. Party leader Elizabeth May proved to be quite popular, earning a 44-per-cent approval rating.

In hindsight, Canseco wishes that he’d waited to conduct this poll until after May’s bizarre speech at the press gallery dinner this weekend, when she announced that Omar Khadr has “more class than the whole f-----g cabinet.” But ultimately he doesn’t believe that the spectacle would put a dent in her support.

“The Green voter probably agrees with most of what she said about the government, albeit not with the language she used,” Canseco said.

“It’s a very different kind of voter. But it might scare people away from the Greens, people who might have been thinking of voting for the Greens.”

The Greens are seeing the biggest support on Vancouver Island, where 20 per cent of those polled said they’d vote for May’s party.

The survey also asked voters about the most important issues facing Canada, and found that the economy and jobs are still tops in most people’s minds (30 per cent), followed by government accountability (22 per cent) and health care (15 per cent).

But among those aged 18-34, another issue surged close to the top of the list: housing, poverty and homelessness. Twenty per cent of young people surveyed said this was the most important issue in the country.

Canseco said the numbers are particularly high in Metro Vancouver, where young people are having a rough time finding good jobs and getting into the increasingly expensive housing market. A smart federal leader would look to the example of Barack Obama, who travelled the U.S. talking to young people about issues like paying down student debt.

“They’re having all these difficulties with the lives that they were promised when they graduated from university,” Canseco said.

“The one way that you can engage with this group of people is to talk about some of the opportunities that you will be creating for them.”

The Insights West results are based on an online survey of 814 British Columbians conducted from May 7 to 9. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. ...

Most likely to support the NDP:

• Among Vancouver Island residents — 47 per cent of decided voters

• Among young people aged 18-34 — 42 per cent of decided voters

• Among women — 40 per cent of decided voters

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Federal+rises+Conservatives+drop+latest...

 

jerrym

If several more polls show the NDP moving ahead, the Cons will shift their air war to start bombing the NDP. After all, for Cons attacks are the sincerest form of flattery.

Marco C

I'm not really sure what they can attack though...

 

They've spent so much time and effort targeting the Liberals it will come off schizophrenic and synical to turn the guns on the NDP. No only that I'm not sure they have any amunition to use against the NDP, what the BOIE non-sense or how the NDP is a pack of communist ect? That really didn't work at all for the PCAA in Alberta, I don't see it working now.

 

I think Alberta will have a huge impact on the election... I never would have guessed but if the EKOS poll is replicated they would really meen somthing. In one fell swoop the ANDP might have destroyed the LPC and and the CPC... just wow.

Sean in Ottawa

jerrym wrote:

If several more polls show the NDP moving ahead, the Cons will shift their air war to start bombing the NDP. After all, for Cons attacks are the sincerest form of flattery.

Yes and when the Cons attack the NDP they appear desperate and make no sense-- I suspect anyone the Conservatives attack from here out will gain more support.

The Liberals are looking like an errant wad of toiletpaper at the edge of the bowl waiting for a particularly good flush.

jerrym

Marco C wrote:

I'm not really sure what they can attack though...

They'll attack Tom personally just as they did Justin, Michael and Stephane, not NDP policies by using the "angry Tom" stereotype. For a Con who needs policies when you have personal attacks?

Sean in Ottawa

nicky wrote:

Here are the EKOS regionals:

 

Embedded image permalink

So what about the results we saw last night with NDP ahead-- was this the same poll and it got changed for some reason? Or is this another poll?

Sean

nicky

Apparently it was the same poll Sean. The leaked results were "preliminary", the final were "updated"

 

Sean in Ottawa

nicky wrote:

Here are the EKOS regionals:

 

Embedded image permalink

Let's compare to the 2011 election:

BC: CPC -15 NDP -1.5 Lib +15 --- NDP would likely get as many seats although they could lose some to Liberals (assuming they don't continue to drop) but they could take more from the Conservatives than they lose to the Liberals. With the new seats I would expect the NDP to take their share. Call this one +3.

Alberta: NDP+9 Liberal+6 CPC-17 The Liberals may gain a seat but more likely the NDP could take a half a dozen more Call this +6

Sask: NDP-4 CPC-18 Liberal+12 The Liberals might get a seat but the big story is with the new boundaries the NDP should pick up 4-5 seats. Lets call this +4

Manitoba: NDP-6 CPC-18 Liberal+15 With these numbers I expect the NDP to hang on (although they could lose one) as the CPC falls but the Liberals pick up perhaps 4 seats. Let's call this -1

Ontario: The NDP+1 The Liberals are up 6 and the CPC is down 11. The NDP could lose some seats to the Liberals while picking up others from the Conservatives. I would call this a wash for the NDP but with the new seats I epxpect this to be a bit better. Still I expect the Liberals to take at least 15 Conservative seats with this change if the numbers hold. Let's call +3.

Quebec: NDP-5 Liberal+7 CPC -0.5 BQ-5 With the BQ down the same numbers as the NDP I don't see the NDP seat count changing. They could lose a couple to the Liberals and gain a couple from the BQ. Call this even.

Atlantic: It is hard to tell what is happening without a breakdown The NDP have only 6 seats here. My numbers are approximate NDP-5 Liberal+14 CPC-12. This suggests to me that the big changes will be in New Brunswick where the Conservatives will lose 5-6 seats to the Liberals along with some damage in NS. The NDP likely can hang on to their 6 but could lose one. Let's call this -1.

This would have the NDP at a total of around 115. The Liberals would have recovered over the last result to parhaps as many as 90 seats.

CPC 140

NDP 115

LPC 80

GR 1

BQ 2

These numbers would result in Mulcair most likely inviting Liberals to join an NDP-Liberal coalition government. If 25 or fewer Liberals remained loyal to Trudeau and refused there would still be a majority. Of course Trudeau would have to resign and a pro-coalition candidate would take his place.

Of course the momentum is with the NDP again -- so this potential minority could become a majority by e-day.

 

Sean in Ottawa

nicky wrote:

Apparently it was the same poll Sean. The leaked results were "preliminary", the final were "updated"

 

I am going to guess that the preliminary numbers might be one of the nights in field.

Still these are good numbers. You can see how I compared to the last election. The regionals suggest gains for the NDP even though the popular vote is down a couple points.

NorthReport

Wow! 

Read the comments. 

No wonder the NDP are surging and the Liberals are dropping in the polls. The Alberta election has only added fuel to the flames.

Federal NDP In 3-Way Tie With Tories, Liberals, Poll Suggests

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/14/federal-ndp-poll-mulcair-ekos-li...

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

So what about the results we saw last night with NDP ahead-- was this the same poll and it got changed for some reason? Or is this another poll?

Sean

It was Frank Graves' way of getting everyone to look.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

What did they say NR? I'm locked out.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Boy are Mansbridge and the guy from Abacus ever trying to down play the recent developments in Alberta and the polls. But Coyne and Hebert arent' willing to play. And Hebert is saying that there is something going on in Qubec. Mansbridge is such a pompus jerk!

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Amazing!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, neither CBC or CTV discussed the poll results. They don't want anyone to know what is going on.

NorthReport

That just like Debater many, many others are abandoning the Liberals and moving their support to the NDP because of Trudeau's support for C51.

I don't think Justin is as bad as he is being painted out to be, but he needs to bring in a brand new team as his current asdvisors have let him down big time.

Warren Kinsella has been aluding to these Liberal problems for a long time now.

Arthur Cramer wrote:

What did they say NR? I'm locked out.

Sean in Ottawa

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Well, neither CBC or CTV discussed the poll results. They don't want anyone to know what is going on.

This is not that bad a thing. People knowing that the NDP is not the establishment choice is not going to hurt. It may mean that people on October 20th might be surprised to see an NDP government when they could have known but I can live with that.

NorthReport

Why was Justin Trudeau on The Social?

“Hey ladies!”

That’s how a grinning Justin Trudeau addressed a crowd of politicos and journalists at the Parliamentary Press Gallery dinner Saturday night, in a joking reference to a controversial invitation to an appearance by the Liberal leader sent out last year.

Perhaps wisely, he didn’t greet the audience of CTV’s ‘The Social’ that way Friday.

The upswing in NDP support noted in this week’s iPolitics/EKOS poll was especially telling among women, with the party now leading. In fact, though well within the 2.9 percentage point margin of error, Trudeau’s Liberals also trail the Conservatives.


http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/15/why-was-justin-trudeau-on-the-social-...

nicky
josh

Forum: Cons 31 Libs 31 NDP 30

Cons 131 NDP 115 Libs 95

http://t.thestar.com/#/article/news/canada/2015/05/15/federal-liberals-n...

Stockholm

The Forum poll confirms the Ekos poll in having the NDP wayyyy ahead in Quebec and a strong 26/27% in Ontario...and they have the NDP even further ahead in BC. Its all good.

Winston

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

NorthReport

After Alberta NDP Rising Everywhere Including BC While Harper Conservatives Losing Support

A new poll this week found the Stephen Harper Conservative government is losing support in BC and in one of their key demographics. Supporters age 55 and up seem to be leaning more toward the NDP, according to numbers from Insights West.

VANCOUVER – After the Alberta shocker where Rachel Noteley-led provincial NDP swept to power in an overwhelming majority, the federal NDP is getting a nice bounce across Canada with their fortunes rising, including BC.

A new poll this week found the Stephen Harper Conservative government is losing support in BC and in one of their key demographics. Supporters age 55 and up seem to be leaning more toward the NDP, according to numbers from Insights West, reported News 1130.

The pollster’s Mario Canseco says the Tories are losing touch with older generations which are also the most likely to show up at the polls.  And given the recent NDP win in Alberta, he adds the new Democrats should be jumping on it.

“One of the lessons here for the NDP federally is if you really want to win seats, you need to court those voters to really get that over 55 crowd that usually tends to vote for either of the two major parties and insist that they take a look at the NDP,” Canseco said.

He explains the numbers are a bit of a surprise, given older generations have largely been supporting the Conservatives since the 2004 election.

“And we’re starting to see some cracks in that foundation, many residents over the age of 55, who are looking at the NDP as an option — and if those numbers hold then there could be some seats up for grabs.”

In Metro Vancouver, the Tories and NDP are actually tied at 32 per cent support with the Liberals trailing slightly behind.


http://thelinkpaper.ca/?p=46796

mark_alfred

Quote:

If these results are projected up to seats in a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would capture a minority with 131 seats. The NDP would remain the official opposition with 111 seats and the Liberals would see 95 seats, Forum says.

Some time ago I predicted a three way race, and was widely ridiculed for it at the time.  Mind you, still hard to say what will happen.  Looks like anything is possible.  It's going to be a thrilling election.  I'm feeling very optimistic for the NDP's chances.

NorthReport
montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

55+ see a $29,000 reward for voting NDP. Many of them probably didn't know about the pensions thing. When Tom Mulcair promised to roll the retirement age back AND bring in $15 daycare it looked like a good compromise between the old and the young. Economically, it is symbiotic as it gives the older folks a bit more money to spend, and the younger more time to provide those services. It will also have the effect of taking older people out of the labour market, which is good for the young, and allowing others who are younger to replace them. These policies are economically and socially brilliant, which is why I trust Tom Mulcair.

55 - reward in 10 years

56 - reward in 9 years

57 - reward in 8 years

58 - reward in 7 years

59 - reward in 6 years

60 - reward in 5 years

61 - reward in 4 years

62 - reward in 3 years

63 - reward in 2 years

64 - reward in 1 year

65 - reward now!

66 - only $14,500

67+ - reward 0

If somene asks you "what's in it for me?", the NDP has great answers.

NorthReport

Right-wingers have been freaking out ever since the nite of May 5. Let's make sure it continues.

The Election Index: The rise of the Alberta NDP

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/the-election-index-the-rise-...

 

Policywonk

montrealer58 wrote:

55+ see a $29,000 reward for voting NDP. Many of them probably didn't know about the pensions thing. When Tom Mulcair promised to roll the retirement age back AND bring in $15 daycare it looked like a good compromise between the old and the young. Economically, it is symbiotic as it gives the older folks a bit more money to spend, and the younger more time to provide those services. It will also have the effect of taking older people out of the labour market, which is good for the young, and allowing others who are younger to replace them. These policies are economically and socially brilliant, which is why I trust Tom Mulcair.

55 - reward in 10 years

56 - reward in 9 years

57 - reward in 8 years

58 - reward in 7 years

59 - reward in 6 years

60 - reward in 5 years

61 - reward in 4 years

62 - reward in 3 years

63 - reward in 2 years

64 - reward in 1 year

65 - reward now!

66 - only $14,500

67+ - reward 0

If somene asks you "what's in it for me?", the NDP has great answers.

The changes to OAS do not apply if you were born in 1957 or earlier.

http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/services/pensions/oas/changes/age/gis...

Treetop

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_1053.html

RSR ROBBINS - Canadian National Survey - May 15, 2015:

T. Mulcair and NDP (33%), J. Trudeau and Liberals (32.5%), S. Harper and Conservatives (26.5%) 

NorthReport

Canada’s New Democrats overtake Liberals in poll

http://www.stabroeknews.com/2015/news/world/05/15/canadas-new-democrats-...

JKR

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I think it's great. I've always felt that the best possible results in Canadian elections are NDP majorities. An NDP minority government would not be as great a result as a majority but it nonetheless would be an excellent result too. I think a minority situation is the likeliest. In the event of a minority, I hope the NDP and LPC can work together and pass some progressive legislation.

Sean in Ottawa

JKR wrote:
Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

 

I think it's great. I've always felt that the best possible results in Canadian elections are NDP majorities. An NDP minority government would not be as great a result as a majority but it nonetheless would be an excellent result too. I think a minority situation is the likeliest. In the event of a minority, I hope the NDP and LPC can work together and pass some progressive legislation.

I would say that is likely

Pondering

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I like em just fine. I have hoped for a very long time that the Conservatives would fall into third place because I think they could splinter again leaving the Liberals and the NDP the two main parties. The downside is that if they do become the two main parties it could be no different than the old Conservatives and Liberals leaving progressives no farther ahead and having to form a new party from scratch.

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