Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Here's a link to the details:

 (http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-continues-to-rise-as-l...)

 

 

NDP 33.6%

CON 26.9%

LIB 23.3%

....Debater?....Debater?...Debater?....

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Here's a link to the details:

 (http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-continues-to-rise-as-l...)

 

 

NDP 33.6%

CON 26.9%

LIB 23.3%

....Debater?....Debater?...Debater?....

Lol! It may be temporary and the NDP might  go down, but for now, its sure fun having the shoe on the other foot!

Brachina

Ken Burch wrote:

Here's a link to the details:

 (http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/06/ndp-continues-to-rise-as-l...)

 

 

NDP 33.6%

CON 26.9%

LIB 23.3%

....Debater?....Debater?...Debater?....

 Debater already switched.sides and dumped the Liberals so I'm not sure what kind of response your looking for. Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

socialdemocrati...

Brachina wrote:
Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

This.

Remember if the NDP is going to win a majority, we need to build bridges to anyone with an open mind. That happens at the grassroots level.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

This.

Remember if the NDP is going to win a majority, we need to build bridges to anyone with an open mind. That happens at the grassroots level.

You know, I get this, but considering how badly we've been treated by the Lib posters on this board, we they are concerned, especially foro one of them, I could care less. It'd be a lot less hard to be gracious if he (and he knows who I am talking about), had been more gracious himself. If the Libs come back, expect his brow beating, bleating, arrogant, bragging to continue. But I get where you are coming from.

 

Sean in Ottawa

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

This.

Remember if the NDP is going to win a majority, we need to build bridges to anyone with an open mind. That happens at the grassroots level.

Absolutely when it comes to people who may be reachable.

Debater may be reachable. It is a small minority of Liberals with ultra hatred for the NDP who cannot be reached. Debater boosted the Liberals more than he ran down the NDP so he may not be in that minority. Some of these poeple may be part of the NDP in a few years if it sees the sunny future most of us want.

socialdemocrati...

Arthur Cramer wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

This.

Remember if the NDP is going to win a majority, we need to build bridges to anyone with an open mind. That happens at the grassroots level.

You know, I get this, but considering how badly we've been treated by the Lib posters on this board, we they are concerned, especially foro one of them, I could care less. It'd be a lot less hard to be gracious if he (and he knows who I am talking about), had been more gracious himself. If the Libs come back, expect his brow beating, bleating, arrogant, bragging to continue. But I get where you are coming from.

 

Some people are hyperpartisan robots who will change their positions to match those of their party. But some people are long time party voters who do have issues they care about, and are open to moving their vote to whoever best addresses those issues. It's really hard to know the difference sometimes, especially when someone has been in one camp for years and years. But as a general rule:

  • Try not to personally attack them. One day, you two might be supporting the same party.
  • Look for openings on issues where they have doubts about their party.
  • Address your criticism to the party and the insiders, not the people who honestly vote for them.
  • If you see them repeating spin or supporting bum policies, engage them with facts, not attacks.
  • If you see them spinning every issue, and blaming every other party for their own faults, they're probably a partisan robot.
  • When debating a partisan robot, you're not trying to convince them. You're trying to convince their audience.

I've a lot of successes over the years convincing Liberals and Conservatives to give the NDP a shot. Some I'd been working on for years. 2011 was a breakthrough year, where so many people were fed up with both Harper AND Ignatieff that they were willing to try voting for someone else. And the past few months have been a breakthrough too, thanks to Bill C-51 and the well-timed Alberta election. A lot of people really want to vote for someone who does the right thing, but they've been taught that the NDP is too scary, and need to have those fears addressed with facts, slowly but surely.

I guess the last thing I'd add is to be gracious in victory. The poor graces of the two old parties are actually a big factor in why people are fed up with them. Think of Liberal and Conservative arrogance, and do the opposite.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SD, you will Never move Debater. He's a waste of time.

socialdemocrati...

I didn't think so either. But he HAS moved. And even if it's only on a trial basis, I'm going to stay positive, and work on any lingering doubts he still has. Old habits die hard.

terrytowel

David Akin just wrote on his blog that based on what he is seeing now, he predicts that both Adam Vaughan and Crystia Freeland will both lose their seats to the NDP in DT Toronto

and that Dan Harris and Rathika Sitsabaiesan would win their seats in Scarborough

Like I said Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!

http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politics/predictionator-how-the-ndp-min...

Sean in Ottawa

Terry Towel -- you know the saying about time in politics. We are not close enough to voting day to say it is over. Save that for if these numbers look like this within ten days.

Now lets be fair to Trudeau for a moment -- they got 18% in the last election. The current numebrs are a 30% improvement and he may or may not be able to imrpove on this. Trudeau is young and could sit in the House for a full mandate and try again. What does he have to do to get that chance? 30% improvement not enough? Maybe it is.

I am not betting on Trudeau but I would not say it is over for him even in a third place position. I do not think these numbers are guaranteed -- the NDP could well improve from here or there could be a setback. Almost anything can happen.

To be blunt -- when the election was called in Alberta it was "over" for Notley. when the 2011 election was called it was over for Layton. Elections matter and theya re unpredictable.

NDP is in a great position but it is not by any means over. It is not even the beggining of the end... Shit I just quoted the inventor of the modern concentration camp and a Conservative. Look at what you made me do!

NorthReport

Seriously, who is going to challenge Harper?

 

Date / Pollster /  / NDP / Libs

Oct 19 '15 / Federal Election

Jun 9  '15 / EKOS / 34% / 23% - NDP leads Libs by 11%

Jun 2 '15 / EKOS / 31% / 24% - NDP leads LIbs by 7%

May 26 '15 / EKOS / 29% / 27% - NDP leads Libs by 2%

May 19 '15 / EKOS / 30% / 26% - NDP leads Libs by 4%

May 12 '15 / EKOS / 29% / 27% - NDP leads LIbs by 2%

Alberta Election

May 5 '15 / EKOS / 24% / 30% - LIbs lead NDP by 6%

Apr 28 '15 / 22% / 29% / Libs lead NDP by 7%

Mar 31 '15 / 23% / 34% - LIbs lead NDP by 11%

Feb 24 '15 / 22% / 34% / Libs lead NDP by 10%

Feb 3 '15 / 18% / 32% - Libs lead NDP by 14%

Dec 18 '14 / 20% / 34% - Libs lead NDP by 14%

Jul 23 '14 / 23% / 39% - Libs lead NDP by 16% 

Jan 27 '14 / EKOS / 24% / 33% -  Libs lead NDP by 11%

Oct 29 '14 / EKOS / 21% / 33%  - Libs lead NDP by 12%

May 1 '14 / EKOS / 21% / 35% - Libs lead NDP by 14%

Dec 15 '13 / EKOS / 23% / 32% - Libs lead NDP by 9%

Oct 29 '13 / EKOS / 25% / 37% - Libs lead NDP by 12%

May 26 '13 / EKOS / 21% / 35% - Libs lead NDP by 14%

May 2 '13 / EKOS / 24% / 39% - Libs lead NDP by 15%

Apr 14 '13 - Trudeau assumed leadership

Feb 10 '13 / EKOS / 26% / 24% - NDP leads Libs by 2%

Jul 5 '12 / EKOS / 32% / 20%  - NDP leads Libs by 12%

-------------------

11,100

 

mark_alfred

Seems that Harper is using public dollars to obtain polls for partisan Con advantage.  Rather than slowing down the amount of gov't polling in this pre-election period, they've ramped it up.  Given the tone of questions, it looks like they're hoping to determine where areas of greatest Con support are.  http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-government-cranks-up-polling-in-r...

Quote:

Peter Julian, New Democrat House leader, said the stepped-up polling is characteristic of the government's repeated use of public money for partisan purposes.

"The Conservatives are basically breaking every single ethical code imaginable … to get themselves re-elected," he said in an interview. "This government has not an honest bone in its body."

NorthReport

New poll shows support for Canada’s official opposition is rising (Last week's EKOS poll)

http://globalnews.ca/video/2054175/new-poll-shows-support-for-canadas-of...

NorthReport
socialdemocrati...

Consider that the second choice for likely voters favour these parties: 23 per cent say the NDP would be their second choice, while 21 per cent choose the Liberals. Conservatives are the second choice of just seven per cent of decided likely voters.

The NDP isn't just the most popular party. It's also the party most people would accept: it has the highest ceiling.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have no path to a majority. They don't just have to convince people to vote for them. They have to convince people to even CONSIDER voting for them. They have the lowest ceiling, and would need to reclaim every last one of their sympathizers to replicate their 2011 victory.

mark_alfred

I enjoy reading Kinsella.  But it is a bit ironic that he was quite supportive of Trudeau's stance of favouring Bill C-51, since that seems to be a factor in the recent slump of the Liberals in the polls.

socialdemocrati...

Trudeau probably chose the worst possible path on Bill C-51. Either you think the security threat is real, and then every measure is necessary. Or you think it's bogus Islamophobia that's been trumped up and politicized, in which case you're more concerned about civil rights and abuse of government power. If Trudeau hadn't been so hellbent on finding a distinction without a difference from Harper, he could have had the benefit of saying he's tough on terrorism. He does basically want the same bill just with PM oversight.

bekayne

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have no path to a majority. They don't just have to convince people to vote for them. They have to convince people to even CONSIDER voting for them. They have the lowest ceiling, and would need to reclaim every last one of their sympathizers to replicate their 2011 victory.

When you translate the Angus Reid poll into seats, the Conservatives are only 15-20 seats short of a majority

socialdemocrati...

bekayne, you're going to pick a fight with me, you can't just blurt numbers out. You have to show reliable sources for your claims.

The seat projections, when you plug the Angus Reid regional numbers into the TCTC model:

  • NDP: 137 Seats
  • Conservative: 135 Seats
  • Liberals: 65 Seats
  • Green: 1 Seat
  • ... and that's all the seats.

Regional analysis:

  • Liberals take half the Atlantic seats.
  • NDP takes over 80% of Quebec.
  • Conservatives take 50% of Ontario.
  • Conservatives take 60% of the Prairies.
  • Conservatives dominate Alberta, with all but 2 NDP seats.
  • NDP takes half of BC.

Amazingly enough, the NDP can form a coalition based around BC and Quebec, with a 1/4 of the seats in the Prairies/Ontario/Atlantic.

 

bekayne

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

bekayne, you're going to pick a fight with me, you can't just blurt numbers out. You have to show reliable sources for your claims.

  • Conservatives take 50% of Ontario.

And here's the point of disagreement right here (I'm not trying to pick a fight, btw.) The UBC Predictor has Con 70, NDP 34, Lib 17. You have to keep in mind how few seats the NDP lost to Harper there by under 20%.

Here's how I got my estimate:

Ont 70

Atlantic - around 10

Quebec - around 5

MB/SK - around 20

Alberta - 34

BC - 12

North - 2 

socialdemocrati...

Yeah, sorry if I sounded defensive. Where's a link to the UBC predictor? I can't seem to find it.

bekayne

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Yeah, sorry if I sounded defensive. Where's a link to the UBC predictor? I can't seem to find it.

No problem, right here:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

 

socialdemocrati...

Hmm... saw that. But no way to actually punch in the Angus reid results? It seems to be based entirely on estimating the probability that voters switch between parties.

bekayne

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Hmm... saw that. But no way to actually punch in the Angus reid results? It seems to be based entirely on estimating the probability that voters switch between parties.

Yeah, it can get very confusing. I just re-did Ontario. For simplicity's sake, I gave 19% of the CPC to the NDP and 2% of the Lib to the Greens.

The seat totals were: Con 65/ NDP 31/ Lib 25

The seat ranges (+ or - 5%) were: Con 52-78/ NDP 27-40/ Lib 13-36

Jacob Two-Two

It doesn't matter what the seat count is. This is just the beginning of a steady bleed of votes from the Libs to the NDP. The only thing that the Liberals have had going for them for ages is the assumption that they can beat the Conservatives, but we're finally seeing that put to bed, and as it sinks in to Liberal voters that they are no longer backing the winning horse, they will start questioning why they are there at all. Opposition to C-51 will rise, and Mulcair will continue to outperform Justin and his team. Votes will defect in droves.

Flashy policy announcements won't help, because it isn't just that people hated the Libs backing C-51, but they also hated the WAY they did it. It seemed shifty and unprincipled. Justin has lost the people's trust. It doesn't matter what he says anymore.

We should also remember that there's a distinct trend here. After every election the Libs get a new leader. They rise temporarily in the polls, as Canadians fill with hope that it might be okay to vote Liberal again. Then they crash in the campaign, when Canadians realise that it's even less okay than last time. Each time they fall farther than the time before. Can they survive another election where they severely disappoint the public?

I kinda think they can't. Instead, I think we'll see a surge of voters saying, "why are we wasting our time here?" and moving to the NDP. I think we might see a final Liberal result as low as 8%.

Pondering

Arthur Cramer wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

This.

Remember if the NDP is going to win a majority, we need to build bridges to anyone with an open mind. That happens at the grassroots level.

You know, I get this, but considering how badly we've been treated by the Lib posters on this board, we they are concerned, especially foro one of them, I could care less. It'd be a lot less hard to be gracious if he (and he knows who I am talking about), had been more gracious himself. If the Libs come back, expect his brow beating, bleating, arrogant, bragging to continue. But I get where you are coming from.

Expressing opinions you don't like is not treating you badly. Expressing confidence that the party you support is going to win is neither bragging nor arrogance when you explain the reasons why you think the party will win.

My answers to the political poll illustrate that it is the Mulcair NDP that I am against not the NDP in general.

Debater was accused of disappearing when the NDP is doing well and of not explaining his reasons for supporting the Liberals. You can't make those accusations of me but it only makes you even less tolerant.

If I answer everyone addressing my points then I am overbearing. If I skip answering anyone then I am avoiding an argument. If I am against any aspect of what the Liberals are doing I am challenged with "well then why are you voting for them" as though I should vote based on a single issue. If I answer the question I am accused of shilling for the Liberals.

I have stayed out of the grand majority of NDP threads for a very long time with only the occasional comment and that includes when the Liberals are being attacked. There is no such respect for Liberal threads, which is fine, it's a free world, but it certainly doesn't make you the better person. I don't start dozens of Mulcair/NDP attack threads.

My participation is currently light in both the polling threads and the general election 2015 thread but guaranteed if I say anything in a Trudeau thread a few of you will rush in to attack me not to discuss the subject at hand. Every single thread I participate in I am on guard for the coming attacks because most of the time they are coming. My posts are read with a fine tooth comb looking for some phrase that can be twisted to use as a lauchpad for attacks.

So basically, get off your high horses. None of you deal with the kind of sustained targeting that I do. I am accused of claiming victimhood but the opposite is true. It is you who claim victimhood by making vague accusations of "arrogance" or "bragging" as justification for mistreatment of other posters. Expressing a view you don't like becomes baiting. Saying anything against the NDP becomes "passive aggressive" and inviting hostility. Still not agreeing with you after you think you have "proven" your point becomes an affront. Because you are so victimized, it justifies your hostility.

If Debater did as you asked, gave reasons for his supporting the Liberals over the NDP, he would be in my shoes. You don't want reasons. You want to browbeat anyone who supports the Liberal party or considers them a reasonable choice or silence them.

socialdemocrati...

That's a lot closer to the TCTC numbers for Ontario, where the NDP has a narrow lead overall. But Jacob is right that the lead doesn't matter. 

Look at the voter ceilings. 

Poll after poll shows that the Cons aren't just losing first choice voters, they're also running out of voters who even see them as a second choice. The voters who would pick the Cons as their first or second choice is less than 40%, whereas the people who would pick the NDP as their first or second choice is more than 60%. Neither party will hit their ceiling. That makes it impossible for the Conservatives to hit a majority. But how far the NDP will get is (for better or for worse) still an open question.

 

NorthReport

Just a headsup that we may get some more polling data today as Tuesdays is usually the day of the week Nik Nanos releases his Index numbers often on Power Play with host Don Martin which starts in about 1 & 1/2 hours.  

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Being gracious.when.things are.going good might be less fun, but also more compassionate and evovled.

This.

Remember if the NDP is going to win a majority, we need to build bridges to anyone with an open mind. That happens at the grassroots level.

You know, I get this, but considering how badly we've been treated by the Lib posters on this board, we they are concerned, especially foro one of them, I could care less. It'd be a lot less hard to be gracious if he (and he knows who I am talking about), had been more gracious himself. If the Libs come back, expect his brow beating, bleating, arrogant, bragging to continue. But I get where you are coming from.

Expressing opinions you don't like is not treating you badly. Expressing confidence that the party you support is going to win is neither bragging nor arrogance when you explain the reasons why you think the party will win.

My answers to the political poll illustrate that it is the Mulcair NDP that I am against not the NDP in general.

Debater was accused of disappearing when the NDP is doing well and of not explaining his reasons for supporting the Liberals. You can't make those accusations of me but it only makes you even less tolerant.

If I answer everyone addressing my points then I am overbearing. If I skip answering anyone then I am avoiding an argument. If I am against any aspect of what the Liberals are doing I am challenged with "well then why are you voting for them" as though I should vote based on a single issue. If I answer the question I am accused of shilling for the Liberals.

I have stayed out of the grand majority of NDP threads for a very long time with only the occasional comment and that includes when the Liberals are being attacked. There is no such respect for Liberal threads, which is fine, it's a free world, but it certainly doesn't make you the better person. I don't start dozens of Mulcair/NDP attack threads.

My participation is currently light in both the polling threads and the general election 2015 thread but guaranteed if I say anything in a Trudeau thread a few of you will rush in to attack me not to discuss the subject at hand. Every single thread I participate in I am on guard for the coming attacks because most of the time they are coming. My posts are read with a fine tooth comb looking for some phrase that can be twisted to use as a lauchpad for attacks.

So basically, get off your high horses. None of you deal with the kind of sustained targeting that I do. I am accused of claiming victimhood but the opposite is true. It is you who claim victimhood by making vague accusations of "arrogance" or "bragging" as justification for mistreatment of other posters. Expressing a view you don't like becomes baiting. Saying anything against the NDP becomes "passive aggressive" and inviting hostility. Still not agreeing with you after you think you have "proven" your point becomes an affront. Because you are so victimized, it justifies your hostility.

If Debater did as you asked, gave reasons for his supporting the Liberals over the NDP, he would be in my shoes. You don't want reasons. You want to browbeat anyone who supports the Liberal party or considers them a reasonable choice or silence them.

YOU want ME. to get off, MY, High Horse? REALLY? Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. You described yourself Pondering. Are you really unable to see how ironic you commentary is? I stand by what I said. LPC posters are arrogant, and either deliberately, or unknowingly obtuse. Its one of the other.There is NO other expalanation for the content of the posts of LPC shills on this board.

As to reasons to support the Liberals, I'd hope Deater might give a better answer. Depsite being shown over and over how without substance your arguments are shown to be to you, you insist on repeating them over and over. I''m all for discussing reaons. Provide some.

As I said, YOU, telling, ANYBODY, to get off their high horse? Look in the mirror.

NorthReport

As I expected more bad news for the Liberals twice today - first thing in the morning with Angus Reid confirming the Liberals at only 23%, not far from their disasterous showing in 2011, and now Nanos confirming the mistake the Liberals made choosing Trudeau as their leader.

 

NorthReport

Take a look at the amazin' strength for the NDP in the Regionals

JUNE 16

The weekly power index is based on a composite of the following public opinion measures:

  • National ballot numbers
  • Which political party people would consider voting for
  • Top two choices for prime minister
  • Whether each party leader has good leadership qualities

The Power Index is modeled similar to a standard confidence index. It is a random telephone survey conducted with live agents, reaching out to Canadians through a land- and cell-line dual frame sample.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers

NorthReport

Nanos today

Nanos June 16NDP still riding high on Nanos Index

The New Democrats continue to rise higher up the Nanos Party Power Index, and are sitting at a 12-month high in virtually every category.

 

Power Party Index 

 

NDP / 56

Cons / 53

Libs / 52 - Last

NorthReport

Best Political Leadership Qualities

Mulcair now has a 8% lead over last place Trudeau

Tom Mulcair remains in top spot on the question of political leadership qualities after overtaking Prime Minister Stephen Harper a week ago. He rose from 57% to 59% of respondents saying he had the qualities of a good leader, while Harper remained at 55% for the third week in a row. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, sits at third place, seeing a percentage point decline from 52% last week to 51%.

 

Leader / Last Wk / This Wk / Change

Mulcair  / 57% / 59% / Up 2%

Harper / 55% / 55% / Unchanged

Trudeau / 52% / 51% / Down 1% - Last Place


http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers

NorthReport

Preferred PM


Leader / Last Wk / This Wk / Change

Mulcair / 25% / 28% / Up 3% (was up 3% last week, so an increase of 6% in 2 weeks)

Harper / 29% / 29% / Unchanged

Trudeau / 27% / 26% / Down 1%

 

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers


NorthReport
NorthReport
adma

bekayne wrote:

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Hmm... saw that. But no way to actually punch in the Angus reid results? It seems to be based entirely on estimating the probability that voters switch between parties.

Yeah, it can get very confusing. I just re-did Ontario. For simplicity's sake, I gave 19% of the CPC to the NDP and 2% of the Lib to the Greens.

The seat totals were: Con 65/ NDP 31/ Lib 25

The seat ranges (+ or - 5%) were: Con 52-78/ NDP 27-40/ Lib 13-36

May I recommend: be *very* cautious about using predictors based rather rawly upon prior results.  That's how a lot of people underestimated the NDP and overestimated Wildrose in Alberta.

Being overly dependent upon predictors is like being overly dependent upon the soothing voice of GPS Girl while driving--it allows little wiggle room or provision for the unpredictable, and it's no substitute for the kind of broad-based geographic literacy that traditional maps and atlases once nurtured...

David Young

One factor in the NDP's rise in popularity that hasn't been discussed could be the fact that as the NDP has more and more of their candidates nominated (70% according to Pundit's Gude), the voting public are looking at their voting choices and seeing that the NDP is getting better candidates to run for them than they've ever had before.

 

NorthReport

Are we getting a feel for some of Canada's pollster's, media etc. in the run-up to the October 19th election yet?

Here are some assessments - what do others think?

Angus Reid - neutral

Ipsos Reid - neutral

EKOS - neutral

Nanos - neutral

Abacus Data - leans Liberal, just like NationalNewsWatch

Forum Research - is Liberal

308 - leans Liberal

EPP - is Liberal

Toronto Star - supports Liberals

CBC News Dept - supports Liberals

Postmedia including National Post - anti NDP

Globe and Mail - anti NDP

CTV Question Period - neutral

CTV Power Play - neutral

CBC  Power Politics - supports Liberals

CBC At Issues Panel - anti NDP (where is the NDP panelist)

Global TV News - neutral

CTV News - neutral

 

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Are we getting a feel for some of Canada's pollster's, media etc. in the run-up to the October 19th election yet?

Here are some assessments - what do others think?

Angus Reid - neutral

Ipsos Reid - neutral

EKOS - neutral

Nanos - neutral

Abacus Data - leans Liberal, just like NationalNewsWatch

Forum Research - is Liberal

308 - leans Liberal

EPP - is Liberal

Toronto Star - supports Liberals

CBC News Dept - supports Liberals

Postmedia including National Post - anti NDP

Globe and Mail - anti NDP

CTV Question Period - neutral

CTV Power Play - neutral

CBC  Power Politics - supports Liberals

CBC At Issues Panel - anti NDP (where is the NDP panelist)

Global TV News - neutral

CTV News - neutral

 

Ekos seems anti Conservative and at least somewhat NDP friendly

The Globe is not just anti NDP it leans Conservative

CTV is generally Conservative but responsible enough not to be out there like SUN was.

Missing from list:

MacLeans leans Conservative and is anti NDP

Rabble leans strongly to the NDP and is very anti Conservative

NorthReport

Interesting that Paul Wells Harper's biographer is moderating Maclean's debate. Take about conflict of interest and very disappointed to see Wells accept the role as I thought more of him. But this behaviour is part and parcel of why many of Canada's media types are held in such low regard these days.

NorthReport

Just like I was pleasantly surprised to see the Alberta election results, these recent polling results are music to my ears. I was wondering how the NDP was going to increase their support and Trudeau came through showing Canadians the contrast between himself and Mulcair and Trudeau did it all for me.   

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Northern-54

NorthReport wrote:

Are we getting a feel for some of Canada's pollster's, media etc. in the run-up to the October 19th election yet?

Here are some assessments - what do others think?

Angus Reid - neutral

Ipsos Reid - neutral

EKOS - neutral

Nanos - neutral

Abacus Data - leans Liberal, just like NationalNewsWatch

Forum Research - is Liberal

308 - leans Liberal

EPP - is Liberal

Toronto Star - supports Liberals

CBC News Dept - supports Liberals

Postmedia including National Post - anti NDP

Globe and Mail - anti NDP

CTV Question Period - neutral

CTV Power Play - neutral

CBC  Power Politics - supports Liberals

CBC At Issues Panel - anti NDP (where is the NDP panelist)

Global TV News - neutral

CTV News - neutral

 

I consider Angus Reid pro-Conservative but because of their online polling methods, NDP leaning with polls because more young people use internet than old.

I consider Ipsos Reid pro-Conservative

I consider EKOS pro-Liberal, particularly during elections

I consister Nanos pro-Conservative and anti-NDP, particularly during elections

I consisder Abacus pro-Liberal

I consider Forum so pro-Liberal that their poll results cannot be trusted

I consider 308 pro-Liberal and view the way his poll aggregator between elections to be skewed because it includes polls that are significantly out-of-date all the time

EPP, Toronto Star, CBC pro-Liberal to the point that I don't read/watch them

Postmedia and National Post so pro-Conservative I don't read them

CTV -pro-Conservative but professional enough to give a semblance of balanced news coverage

CBC Politics - pro-Liberal to the point I don't consider it a serious show

CBC At Issues Panel - hard to consider the program as reputable given it does not include an NDP panelist most of the time

Global TV - pro-Conservative but professional enough to give a semblance of balanced news coverage

Babble - generally pro-NDP, almost always anti-Conservative

NorthReport

Northern -54 well said.

I have been wondering about EKOS. Right now he is talking up a storm about the NDP but is it a setup?

As far as polling is concerned it's confusing when pollsters run off at the mouth often sggesting things that are not backed up in their polling results.

Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid are interesting contrasts. 

Researching into most accurate pollsters Ipson Reid and Angus Reid came across as a vey close one and two, but Angus Reid commentators come across as neutral to me in their comments, whereas Wright at Ipsos Reid seems to personally favour the Cons.

Abacus Data's front man Bruce Anderson can't say very much of anything without praising the Liberals so his polls are suspect to me.

And looking at 308's stats right now is a joke - maybe it's a comedy site!  Wink

onlinediscountanvils

NorthReport wrote:

Northern -54 well said.

I have been wondering about EKOS. Right now he is talking up a storm about the NDP but is it a setup?

As far as polling is concerned it's confusing when pollsters run off at the mouth often sggesting things that are not backed up in their polling results.

Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid are interesting contrasts. 

Researching into most accurate pollsters Ipson Reid and Angus Reid came across as a vey close one and two, but Angus Reid commentators come across as neutral to me in their comments, whereas Wright at Ipsos Reid seems to personally favour the Cons.

Abacus Data's front man Bruce Anderson can't say very much of anything without praising the Liberals so his polls are suspect to me.

And looking at 308's stats right now is a joke - maybe it's a comedy site!  Wink

Hey, North Report, I was wondering if you could explain what you mean by this:

NorthReport wrote:

oldv,

I expected to hear from the people who supported the right-wing Wynne Liberals in the Ontario election. So you are kinda confirming my hunch abourt Leadnow.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Interesting that Paul Wells Harper's biographer is moderating Maclean's debate. Take about conflict of interest and very disappointed to see Wells accept the role as I thought more of him. But this behaviour is part and parcel of why many of Canada's media types are held in such low regard these days.

He's not Harper's official biographer-he simply wrote a book about him. There's no conflict there.

Stockholm

And wells book on Harper was highly critical of him. Maybe a bigger conflict of interest could be that his girlfriend used to work for Jack Layton?

nicky

forum confirms NDP is in the lead but , revealing its long term bias, has the Liberals improbably in second place.

http://t.thestar.com/#/article/news/canada/2015/06/18/federal-ndp-now-le...

terrytowel

Now that the Libs are in third place, it will be impossible for them to gain any traction. And get out of third place.

The NDP has peaked at just the right time, and they will stay there.

Just like last summers Toronto election, Olivia Chow found herself in third place.

No matter what she did, no matter how many debates she went to, no matter how many negative ads she released

Once you are in third you stay there.

I keep telling you guys

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!

Look at Olivia Chow. Same thing.

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