Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

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NorthReport

Trudeau’s woes predictable; Harper’s are just strange

  • MGRAS792


https://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/18/trudeaus-woes-predictable-harpers-are-ju...

NorthReport

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NorthReport

 David Akin ‏@davidakin  2h2 hours ago

Duceppe’s BQ drops 7 pts in latest Leger poll. Now at 19% in QC in @JdeMontreal. #NDP 37, #CPC 23, #LPC 18.

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NorthReport

David Akin ‏@davidakin  2h2 hours ago

Leger’s national federal vote intention latest in @JdeMontreal. Tie game. Orange-Blue.

Embedded image permalink

 

NorthReport

NDP has gained 22% against the Libs and 14% against the Cons since March.

Leger Marketing

Party / Mar 18 / Apr 30 / Jul 19 / Change

NDP / 20% / 21% / 32% / Up 12% 

Cons / 34% / 33% / 32% / Down 2%

Libs / 35% / 34% / 25% / Down 10%

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Duceppe’s BQ drops 7 pts in latest Leger poll. Now at 19% in QC in @JdeMontreal. #NDP 37, #CPC 23, #LPC 18.

Embedded image permalink

 

This is encouraging. I hope it holds. I also hope the rest of Canada notices Quebeckers don't like Trudeau. If this holds, I would be very happy, especcially if we can shut out the Bloc. Maybe Duceppe will finally go away.

NorthReport

The Bloq took a big hit in this poll released tonite in Quebec

But don't worry the Liberal media complex will try their best to bury this, which is another devastating poll for Trudeau right across the country.

NorthReport

So what does happen if the Liberals come third again because the odds of that happening seem to be increasing with each passing day?

NorthReport

+

Pierre C yr

~25% gave the BQ 4 seats out of 75 in 2011 in Quebec... or ~3% Depending how the splits go the Libs could go anywhere from 80 to 30 or so seats.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Probably nothing. The Liberals have 34 seats right now I think. They are projected if an election were held now to get between 70-90 seats approx. That is more than double what they have now. JT and the media will trumpet it as a major political gain for the party and as a reason to retain Trudeau as their party leader.

Rokossovsky

That would be a fair call.

NorthReport

Why Harper's Tories Remain Best Bet to Win

No time to coast New Dems! To gain victory in October, still more lift needed in key regions.

MulcairHarperFaceOff_610px.jpg

You've seen the polls putting Thomas Mulcair and his New Democrats on top. Surely the ever rising fortunes of the NDP, turbo-boosted by the Alberta breakthrough, spell the end of the nine-year reign of Stephen Harper's Conservative government. Right?

Wrong.

In fact, Harper is near-certain to be our next prime minister unless the NDP makes significant further breakthroughs in key parts of Canada.

This will be frustrating news to those who arepredicting Harper's defeat. Sorry. I am just the number crunching messenger here. If you are a New Democrat (or even a loose ally as a member of the Anybody But Conservative voting club), allow me to explain why it's time to stop high fiving and start rolling up your sleeves to sway a lot more voters to your side.

---------------------------

Where breakthroughs must happen

All in all, the Tories look likely to elect about 155 MPs in the expanded House of Commons. That's only 15 seats shy of the 170 needed for an absolute majority -- and more than enough for a solid minority.

Still, election campaigns matter. Canadians with long memories will recall many historic events that either propelled a politician and their party to power, or relegated them to the opposition benches. Will it be Stephen Harper -- soon to embark on his fifth campaign as party leader -- who makes an egregious error on the campaign trail and suffers a fatal fall in the polls, or will that dubious honour go to Mulcair or Trudeau, both of whom for the first time are leading their parties into electoral battle?

More to the point, is it remotely possible for the New Democrats to prosper from a Tory -- or a Liberal -- stumble? Of course, insofar as Mulcair's party needs to add only 30 or so redistributed seats to attain what might be a functioning minority. Still, the path to victory remains challenging.

At best, the New Democratic Party probably will pick up only singles in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Mulcair-mania perhaps could lead to the addition of a seat in each of Newfoundland (most likely: Avalon) and Nova Scotia (South Shore-St. Margaret's), plus a pair on the Prairies (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River and Elmwood-Transcona).

Big gains also look to be mathematically impossible in Quebec, where the New Democrats won 61 of 78 distributed seats in 2011.

Simply, in his quest to become prime minister, Mulcair needs to make massive gains in one or more of three provinces: Alberta, B.C. and Ontario.

Alberta elected a provincial NDP government in May. As residents of B.C. and Ontario will attest, the ascension to power of provincial New Democrats has a historically negative impact on their federal cousins. The notion that a Notley government in Edmonton will per force result in sizeable Alberta gains in October for Mulcair's team is, to be polite, interesting.

That leaves British Columbia and Ontario. Four years ago, the New Democrats finished first in 11 B.C. seats, and second in another 19, while the results in Ontario were 20 firsts and 38 seconds. Could any of those second-place finishes be transformed into victories?

Two Vancouver Island ridings (North Island-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni) appear the best bets for NDP success in B.C., but a rising Green Party -- which scored a historic breakthrough victory in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2011 -- will make that task considerably more difficult. The fact is, any significant increase for the New Democrats in B.C. will depend on the collapse of at least two of their three major competitors -- the Tories, Grits and Greens.

In Ontario, of the 38 second-place results recorded by the NDP in 2011, just four saw the party get more than 30 per cent of the redistributed vote. As in British Columbia, sizeable New Democratic Party gains in central Canada will require a dramatic plunge in support for its major rivals.

So, election campaigns matter. So, too, does electoral math, and analysis of redistributed seats shows that the easiest path to victory belongs to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.  [Tyee]

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/07/20/Harpers-Tories-Winning-Bet/

NorthReport

Bloc Quebecois surge withers away, NDP in first place

For Gilles Duceppe, the second honeymoon is over.

The surge in popularity that he and his Bloc Quebecois enjoyed after he announced his return to politics a month ago is petering out.


http://www.cjad.com/cjad-news/2015/07/20/bloc-quebecois-surge-withers-aw...

NorthReport

Un sondage Léger fait état d’un recul du Bloc dans les intentions de vote au Québec

NOUVELLE VAGUE ORANGE

Une vague orange néo-démocrate souffle de plus belle sur le Canada et menace de déloger le gouvernement de Stephen Harper.

La lutte s’annonce féroce d’ici au scrutin du 19 octobre, car, selon le plus récent sondage de Léger, conservateurs et néo-démocrates sont au coude-à-coude, à 32 %, dans les intentions de vote au Canada. Suivent les libéraux (25 %) et, loin derrière, le Parti vert (6 %) et le Bloc (5 %).

Chute du PLC

«La poussée du NPD est significative ces derniers mois», insiste le vice-président de Léger, Christian Bourque.

Le regain de popularité de Thomas Mulcair et de ses troupes s’est fait aux dépens des libéraux de Justin Trudeau. Le premier a grimpé de 11 points dans les intentions de vote depuis mai, tandis que le second a chuté de 9 points.

«Si les Canadiens se demandent autour de leur BBQ cet été qui peut déloger Stephen Harper du pouvoir, la répon­se, c’est Thomas Mulcair, note M. Bour­que. L’été dernier, Justin Trudeau était dans cette position.»


http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2015/07/19/la-popularite-de-duceppe-ses...

-----------------

Canada's Political Trends:

Seats:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats


Canada's Political Trends:

Popular Vote:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

--------------------

1,800

 

NorthReport

Liberals falling further behind NDP-Conservative race, polls suggest

Sea change in Atlantic Canada?

One interesting trend that is easy to see is the movement taking place in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals currently lead there with 37.7 per cent, followed by the NDP at 31.8 per cent. But that is a sizeable shift since the July 7 update. Since then, the NDP has picked up just over three points, with the Liberals and Conservatives each taking a hit. The gap between the NDP and Liberals in Atlantic Canada now stands at just under six points. At the beginning of March, that gap was almost 35 points wide.

This does have some seat implications. In the July 7 update, the NDP was projected to win between five and six seats in Atlantic Canada. Now, that range has increased to between six and nine. A small increase, but if these trends continue the high range for the NDP will quickly approach a dozen seats in the region — knocking the Liberals' last redoubt out from under them.

 

 

NorthReport

&

NorthReport

&

NorthReport

Canada is about to have its Marie Antoinette "Let them eat cake" moment.

Majority of Canadians will likely swith switch their vote to ensure Senate gets abolished according to the latest poll out today by Forum Research

No wonder we have been having all these stupid Trudeau Liberal media complex and dumb Harper Conservative medai attacks on the NDP who want to abolish the Senate.

How sweet is it going to be when the entire NDP caucus march up to the Senate and snap a big bright orange padlock on the Senate doors hopefully before not too much longer.

NorthReport

Mulcair was looking for something to push the NDP into majority government.

This Forum Poll out today on the Senate are the best polling results the NDP could hope for, and could well push the NDP over the top.

What a ringing endorsement from Canadian voters for Tom Mulcair and the entire NDP Team. 

NorthReport

Majority likely to switch vote to see senate abolished

More than a third are “very likely”

TORONTO June 16th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1281 Canadian voters, the majority (56%) say they are likely to switch their usual vote to support a party or politician who promises to abolish the Senate, and more than a third say they are “very likely” to do so (36%). Strong interest in switching to achieve this end is much higher among the oldest (45%), males (40%), the very wealthiest (42%), in Quebec and the prairies (40% each) and among Conservatives (40%) and New Democrats (43%), but not Liberals (27%), among Francophones (44%) and those with no children (38%). 

The constitutional experts tell us abolishing the senate can’t be done, but there is a majority interest in it happening, especially among supporters of the government and the opposition. The constitutional reform process can no longer be a pair of handcuffs on the aspirations of a nation, and if it continues to hinder progress, we will see demands for reforms to the constitutional reform process itself," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/301/more-than-a-third-are-very-likely/

NorthReport

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

From just the past few days:

And so on, and so on. Increasingly, stories and opinion columns reflect three themes: (i) the Tories are up, (ii) the Dippers are up, and/or (iii) the Grits are down.

From the lofty heights of top spot – from an unchallenged lead in the polls for month after month – to now, a rapidly-diminishing third place.  As the Globe guy writes, they are starting to look desperate, too.

 


http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/team-trudeau-the-news-is-in/

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

From just the past few days:

And so on, and so on. Increasingly, stories and opinion columns reflect three themes: (i) the Tories are up, (ii) the Dippers are up, and/or (iii) the Grits are down.

From the lofty heights of top spot – from an unchallenged lead in the polls for month after month – to now, a rapidly-diminishing third place.  As the Globe guy writes, they are starting to look desperate, too.

 


http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/team-trudeau-the-news-is-in/

I HATE this North Report! Knock it off! Leave the arogant gloating to th Libs, You're embarassing us.

Pondering

Arthur Cramer wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

From just the past few days:

And so on, and so on. Increasingly, stories and opinion columns reflect three themes: (i) the Tories are up, (ii) the Dippers are up, and/or (iii) the Grits are down.

From the lofty heights of top spot – from an unchallenged lead in the polls for month after month – to now, a rapidly-diminishing third place.  As the Globe guy writes, they are starting to look desperate, too.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/team-trudeau-the-news-is-in/

I HATE this North Report! Knock it off! Leave the arogant gloating to th Libs, You're embarassing us.

I certainly see your perspective in this but I can't blame him for expressing his joy over the reversal in fortunes for the Liberals. You know better than anyone how galling it was for the Liberals to be in first place for so long and for so little reason.

terrytowel

As I said before IT'S OVER

Everyone on this board knows it.

Dippers are now saying "If you want to STOP the Harper Cons, you cannot vote Liberal"

I even see Pondering coming around and realizing IT'S OVER.

Now if we can only get Sean in Ottawa, then it would be a clean sweep.

 

NorthReport

Chill Arthur

No one is gloating here.

Anyone who thinks that any party has this election sewn up is sadly mistaken.

 

Arthur Cramer wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

From just the past few days:

And so on, and so on. Increasingly, stories and opinion columns reflect three themes: (i) the Tories are up, (ii) the Dippers are up, and/or (iii) the Grits are down.

From the lofty heights of top spot – from an unchallenged lead in the polls for month after month – to now, a rapidly-diminishing third place.  As the Globe guy writes, they are starting to look desperate, too.

 


http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/team-trudeau-the-news-is-in/

I HATE this North Report! Knock it off! Leave the arogant gloating to th Libs, You're embarassing us.

mark_alfred

Arthur Cramer wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

I HATE this North Report! Knock it off! Leave the arogant gloating to th Libs, You're embarassing us.

Not me.  I love it.  I dance on their graves.  As should all in a progressive board such as this.

Misfit Misfit's picture

NR, sometimes I see numbers in the bottom left hand corner of your posts. What do those numbers mean?

JKR

mark_alfred wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

I HATE this North Report! Knock it off! Leave the arogant gloating to th Libs, You're embarassing us.

Not me.  I love it.  I dance on their graves.  As should all in a progressive board such as this.

I just had this vision of Trudeau covering Taylor Swift's, Shake it Off:

Quote:

I stay out too late
Got nothing in my brain
That's what people say, mmm-mmm
That's what people say, mmm-mmm

I go on too many dates [chuckle]
But I can't make them stay
At least that's what people say, mmm-mmm
That's what people say, mmm-mmm

But I keep cruising
Can't stop, won't stop moving
It's like I got this music
In my mind
Saying, "It's gonna be alright."

'Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play
And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate (haters gonna hate)
I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off
Heart-breakers gonna break, break, break, break, break (mmmm)
And the fakers gonna fake, fake, fake, fake, fake (and fake, and fake, and fake)
Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
I shake it off, I shake it off

Shake it off, I shake it off,
I, I, I shake it off, I shake it off,
I, I, I shake it off, I shake it off
I, I, I shake it off, I shake it off

Hey, hey, hey
Just think while you've been getting down and out about the liars and the dirty, dirty cheats of the world,
You could've been getting down to this sick beat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWlot6h_JM

 

Mulcair, and for that matter Harper and May, could also do covers of shake it off, minus the "got nothin on my brain" part. They could just switch that to "gotta lot on my brain."

Brachina

Arthur Cramer wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Read the comments! 

Team Trudeau: the news is in…

…and the news is not good.

From just the past few days:

And so on, and so on. Increasingly, stories and opinion columns reflect three themes: (i) the Tories are up, (ii) the Dippers are up, and/or (iii) the Grits are down.

From the lofty heights of top spot – from an unchallenged lead in the polls for month after month – to now, a rapidly-diminishing third place.  As the Globe guy writes, they are starting to look desperate, too.

 


http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/07/team-trudeau-the-news-is-in/

I HATE this North Report! Knock it off! Leave the arogant gloating to th Libs, You're embarassing us.

 Actual its Warren Kinsella gloating about the Liberals, which given he still conciders himself a Liberal is weird.

NorthReport

Misfit

It's just the number of hits a thread has when the post is added to the thread

Misfit wrote:
NR, sometimes I see numbers in the bottom left hand corner of your posts. What do those numbers mean?

bekayne

Brachina wrote:

 Actual its Warren Kinsella gloating about the Liberals, which given he still conciders himself a Liberal is weird.

It all comes down to whether or not they're paying for his services at the moment.

josh

Kinsella spends most of his time gloating about the Liberals. Especially since they denied him a nomination.

terrytowel

josh wrote:

Kinsella spends most of his time gloating about the Liberals. Especially since they denied him a nomination.

Actually LONG before that as he is a Jean Chretien supporter, and began critizing the Liberal Party when it was led by Paul Martin.

josh

terrytowel wrote:

josh wrote:

Kinsella spends most of his time gloating about the Liberals. Especially since they denied him a nomination.

Actually LONG before that as he is a Jean Chretien supporter, and began critizing the Liberal Party when it was led by Paul Martin.

Oh yeah. According to him the sun and the moon shine and glow out of Chretien's ass. And I think his hate of the Martinites is more personal than political. Then again, with him, the personal is political.

Brachina

josh wrote:
terrytowel wrote:

josh wrote:

Kinsella spends most of his time gloating about the Liberals. Especially since they denied him a nomination.

Actually LONG before that as he is a Jean Chretien supporter, and began critizing the Liberal Party when it was led by Paul Martin.

Oh yeah. According to him the sun and the moon shine and glow out of Chretien's ass. And I think his hate of the Martinites is more personal than political. Then again, with him, the personal is political.

 Must make shitting difficult :-) 

nicky

http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/5705222-liberals-can-hold-on-to-...

This article refers to a Forum poll from about a month ago showing the NDP ahead in Guelph. 34 to 28 for the Liberals and 26 for the Cons.

This would be a remarkable gain for the NDP and perhaps reflects why Mulcair is campaigning heavily in SW Ontario.

No reference in story to the so- called star Green candidate Gordon Millet but he cannot be polling more than 12% and maybe less.

I have tried to find further details of this poll without success.

NorthReport

Quote:
The NDP's election victory in Alberta may be the catalyst that propelled the federal New Democrats into first place in the polls, but leader Tom Mulcair has seen his own personal approval ratings improve as well.

With approval ratings falling for rival leaders Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, the NDP leader is in a strong position with less than three months to go before the election.

The polls also point to potential growth areas for the NDP. Mulcair, leader of the Official Opposition since 2012, still remains the least known of the three federal leaders — albeit with the best chance to become prime minister in October.

Mulcair has averaged approval ratings of 51 per cent in polls conducted since mid-June, an increase of 10 points from his ratings a year ago. His disapproval rating, at 25 per cent, has dropped slightly over the last year, as have the number of Canadians who say they are unsure of the NDP leader. But at 24 per cent, that still represents a large portion of the voting public.

These numbers give Mulcair a net rating of +26, far superior to those of both Harper and Trudeau. Harper's approval rating has averaged just 31 per cent, with 60 per cent saying they disapprove of the Conservative leader. Trudeau's approval rating of 41 per cent is better, but his disapproval rating has increased to 42 per cent. Where he had a net rating of +9 last summer, that rating is now -1.

--------------

Mulcair: More room for NDP growth

Mulcair is in the opposite position to his Conservative opponent. In every part of the country, Mulcair's approval ratings are higher, and in some places significantly so, than support for the NDP. Half of voters in Atlantic Canada and a majority in British Columbia (55 per cent) and Quebec (60 per cent) approve of the NDP leader, yet his party's support in each of these regions is below 40 per cent. This suggests that the NDP has plenty of room to grow.

Tom Mulcair Tour

Tom Mulcair is touring Ontario this week, where his net approval score of +23 puts him ahead of his rivals in a province seen as a three-way battle. (Aaron Vincent Elkaim/Canadian Press)

This is especially the case considering Mulcair's disapproval ratings are quite low. They are above 30 per cent only in Alberta and the Prairies, where the NDP's prospects were always going to be modest. In B.C., Mulcair's disapproval rating is just 22 per cent, and in Ontario it is just 26 per cent. That gives him a net +23 rating in Ontario, far better than either of his main opponents at a time when the NDP remains locked in a three-way race in the province.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mulcair-trudeau-approval-ratings-point-t...

Charles

nicky wrote:
http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/5705222-liberals-can-hold-on-to-... This article refers to a Forum poll from about a month ago showing the NDP ahead in Guelph. 34 to 28 for the Liberals and 26 for the Cons. This would be a remarkable gain for the NDP and perhaps reflects why Mulcair is campaigning heavily in SW Ontario. No reference in story to the so- called star Green candidate Gordon Millet but he cannot be polling more than 12% and maybe less. I have tried to find further details of this poll without success.

It's not Guelph-specific. It's referring to the then-most-recent national Forum poll. 

NorthReport

NDP tied with conservatives but have more room to grow says Globe headline

Charles

Speaking of Guelph, just like that Environics comes out with a poll that shows a big NDP lead there... http://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/5746804-guelph-s-political-loyal...

sherpa-finn

The correct link to the Guelph specific poll is below: it was a poll commissioned by CUPE and conducted by Environics.

http://m.guelphmercury.com/news-story/5746804-guelph-s-political-loyalti...

Guelph’s political loyalties may be shifting

GUELPH — Guelph has long been a Liberal foothold, both federally and provincially. But a new poll by Environics Research Group for the Canadian Union of Public Employees puts the federal NDP ahead in the polls....Of decided voters, 38 per cent would vote NDP, 27 per cent Liberal, 28 per cent Conservative and seven per cent Green, according to the survey.

ETA: cross-posted with Charles!

alan smithee alan smithee's picture
josh

alan smithee wrote:

NDP open for coalition with Libs.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-open-to-forming-coalition-government-...

Good.

That presupposes that the Conservatives win the most seats.

NorthReport

+

NorthReport

I agree with this.

Remember those articles saying Mulcair was doing all the heavy lifting in Parliament whereas Trudeau was coasting, and wasn't even in the House half the time. Well all that hard work Mulcair has done is now paying off in spades for the NDP,  and the Liberals are now paying the price for Trudeau's laziness.

Justin Trudeau slumps as voters’ preferred PM but don’t blame attack ads

The Liberals are smarting at the unfairness of it all – Justin Trudeau has just hit a 12-month low in a Nanos Research poll that asks voters who they would pick as their preferred prime minister.

Tom Mulcair, the New Democratic Party leader, has, not coincidentally, hit a 12-month high.

The blame has been attached squarely to the Conservative heavy rotation attack ads that have targeted Trudeau as “just not ready” to be prime minister.

“One leader is attacked with a multi-million dollar ad campaign. The other isn’t. It’s not much more complicated,” said one senior Liberal.

But that is too glib an explanation. While it’s true that Trudeau’s personal numbers have fallen since the ads appeared at the end of May – 30.7 per cent preferred him as prime minister three months ago, compared with 23.3 per cent  this week – his year-high number was 35.8 per cent.

In other words, his reputation was bruised long before the Conservative campaign was launched.


http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-justin-trudeau-slu...

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture
NorthReport

Changes during the election period 

 

GE - May 2, '11

Date / Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ

May 2 / GE / 19% / 40% / 31% / 6%

Writs issued - Mar 26 '11

Mar 24 / AR / 19% / 39% / 25%

Mar 23 / IR / 16% / 43% / 24%

Mar 15 / NR / 20% / 39% / 28%

Analysis: NDP surge at Libs expense, Cons unchanged

--------------------

 

GE - Oct 14 '08

Date / Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ

Oct 14 / GE / 18% / 38% / 26% / 10%

Sep 10 / NR / 13% / 37% / 32% / 9%

Sep 9 / AR / 21% / 38% / 24% / 9%

Writs issued: Sep 7 '08

Aug 28 / AR / 18% / 36% / 28% / 9%

Aug 28 / IR / 16% / 33% / 31% / 9%

Aug 27 / NR / 17% / 33% / 35% / 8%

Analysis: Cons up, Libs down, NDP & BQ unchanged

--------------------

 

GE - Jan 23 '06

Date / Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ

Jan 23 / GE / 17% / 36% / 30% / 10%

Dec 1 / IR / 17% / 31% / 33% / 14%

Dec 1 / NR / 15% / 37% / 29% / 14%

Writs issued: Nov 29

Nov 28 / IR / 18% / 31% / 31% / 15%

Nov 13 / NR / 20% / 34% / 28% / 14%

Analysis: Cons up, Bloc down, NDP & Libs unchanged

-------------------

My concern is that the Cons usually hold their own or do better during the actual election campaigns 

 


 

 

Policywonk

josh wrote:
alan smithee wrote:

NDP open for coalition with Libs.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ndp-open-to-forming-coalition-government-...

Good.

That presupposes that the Conservatives win the most seats.

No, that presupposes that no party wins a majority and the Conservatives win enough seats that they feel that they can face the house even with fewer seats than the party that wins the most seats. 

NorthReport

Let's live in the real world: Unless the NDP get a majority government Harper will continue to govern.

------------------------

Fingas nails it as usual.

Mulcair's NDP well positioned to beat Harper Conservatives in federal election 

If Conservative PM Stephen Harper calls an early election, the NDP and Thomas Mulcair will be ready

To be clear, a lot can happen between now and October. And the Conservatives and Liberals will be doing their utmost to push voters toward all-too-familiar territory.

But for now, the stars have aligned nicely for Mulcair and the NDP as the campaign approaches.

And it thus seems entirely plausible that they'll be able to replicate the success of their provincial cousins in Alberta come election day.


http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Fingas+Mulcair+well+positioned+beat+Harpe...

 

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