Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

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Brachina

 I guess IT'S OVER is OVER :-) 

Misfit Misfit's picture

The spelling is Gandhi, not Ghandi.

terrytowel

As Gandhi said "You must first become what you seek to change"

quizzical

saying shit is against the rules here?

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

No, saying s*** is not against the rules. People have been saying all sorts of it here for years. LOL!

terrytowel

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.

nicky wrote:
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.

No I do think "IT'S OVER"

But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules

"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."

That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.

But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.

For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.

Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below

http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551

Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.

terrytowel

Arthur Cramer wrote:

No, saying s*** is not against the rules. People have been saying all sorts of it here for years. LOL!

If that is the case why didn't you just write out the word, instead of hiding it with a bunch of ***

We should wait to see what MegB has to say.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

terrytowel wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

No, saying s*** is not against the rules. People have been saying all sorts of it here for years. LOL!

If that is the case why didn't you just write out the word, instead of hiding it with a bunch of ***

We should wait to see what MegB has to say.

Shit

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SHit

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SHIt

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SHIT

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

SHIT!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Terrtowl, you are some interesting piece of work.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

As I said Terrytowel, you aren't a Mod!

quizzical

saying shit is excess profanity? omfg

bekayne

Arthur Cramer wrote:

As I said Terrytowel, you aren't a Mod!

But is he a rocker?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEI2UUhVEn4

Jacob Two-Two

Shit, you mean I can't say shit? Why didn't anyone- Shit!! I did it agai- SHIT!!!
Aw fuck it. Never mind.

NorthReport
Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Shit, you mean I can't say shit? Why didn't anyone- Shit!! I did it agai- SHIT!!! Aw fuck it. Never mind.
LOL!!!!

jjuares

terrytowel wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.

nicky wrote:
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.

No I do think "IT'S OVER"

But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules

"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."

That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.

But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.

For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.

Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below

http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551

Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.


I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

jjuares wrote:
terrytowel wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.

nicky wrote:
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.

No I do think "IT'S OVER"

But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules

"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."

That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.

But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.

For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.

Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below

http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551

Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.

I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.

That's lovely Terrytowel, would you like a gold star?

jjuares

Arthur Cramer wrote:

jjuares wrote:
terrytowel wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.

nicky wrote:
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.

No I do think "IT'S OVER"

But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules

"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."

That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.

But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.

For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.

Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below

http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551

Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.

I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.

That's lovely Terrytowel, would you like a gold star?


I wrote that Arthur. My point is peole want to use obscenities I find it no big deal and I can't understand why TT has decided this is a big deal now.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

terrytowel wrote:
Which was Forum whole point. That vote splitting is still very much in play in riding across the country. The Liberals would win Eglinton-Lawrence in a cakewalk. However because they are bleeding support to the NDP, its allowing the Cons to come up the middle.

Vancouver South could play out in a similar way. The Conservatives could lose votes and still win with the Liberals losing more votes to the NDP.

Jacob Two-Two

Don't take anything from Forum seriously. Better off reading tea leaves.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

jjuares wrote:
Arthur Cramer wrote:

jjuares wrote:
terrytowel wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.

nicky wrote:
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.

No I do think "IT'S OVER"

But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules

"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."

That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.

But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.

For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.

Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below

http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551

Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.

I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.

That's lovely Terrytowel, would you like a gold star?

I wrote that Arthur. My point is peole want to use obscenities I find it no big deal and I can't understand why TT has decided this is a big deal now.

I know that jjaures. Was taking a shot at TT. He's just trying to stir the put like someone else used to. And be as condescending as the other guy used to be.

nicky

When I see there is a lot of activity on the polling thread I expectently click on it to read about new polling.

Instead I see a lot of utter drivel from the tedious Terryt...l. And childish threats to flag everyione who rises to his rancid bait.

I have to admit that I have risen to his bait a few times myself (and been subject to any number of his whiny complaints).

But we have a serious election to discuss, a discussion which he repeatedly disrails with near idiocy.

I am therefore going to sign a pleadge that for the balance of the election campaign I will ignore TerryT...l. For the sake of elevating Babble to a higher level I urge you all to do likewise. 

To get back on topic, this seems to be the closest thing to a poll in the media today.

http://www.gigcity.ca/2015/08/09/folk-fest-fans-back-ndp-captain-obvious...

JeffWells

FWIW, here is some polling news.

From Innovative Research Group: an online survey of 2,833 between July 24 and July 30:

 

- the NDP is likely to make gains in 45 seats where the Liberals won with either a strong majority or two-way races in the 2011 election and another 33 close seats between the Conservatives and NDP in the last election, now transposed under new ridings.

...

The survey revealed that in the 45 seats across the country that are Liberal two-way races or strong wins based on the last election results, the NDP now had the support of 30.5 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals 35.9 and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals had the support of 39.2 per cent, NDP 21 per cent and the Conservatives 35 per cent. This means the NDP has come up from 18 points behind to 5.5 points behind. The Liberal support has gone down by about four points and the Conservative support has gone down by about 12 points.

In the two-way races between the Conservative Party and the NDP in 33 ridings across the country, the survey indicated the NDP vote had remained almost the same while the Conservative had gone down and the Liberal vote had gone up. In the 2011 election, the Conservatives won 42.8 per cent of the votes, Liberal Party nine per cent, and the NDP 40.9 per cent. The survey results showed the Conservative Party support was at 26.3 per cent, the Liberals at 22.2 per cent and the NDP at 40.4 per cent. 

Ironically, the Liberal support had more than doubled but it’s still not good enough to win the seats.

“The Liberal vote is moving in a way that doesn’t help them win seats,” Mr. Lyle said.

 

https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gain...

terrytowel

nicky wrote:

I am therefore going to sign a pleadge that for the balance of the election campaign I will ignore TerryT...l. For the sake of elevating Babble to a higher level I urge you all to do likewise. 

It is interesting that Nicky & Arthur are attacking me because I pointed out profanity should NOT be used on this board. Which are the rules. Now you are attacking me for suggesting we FOLLOW the rules on rabble?

My final word last night was to say let's wait to hear what MegB has to say. That should of been the end of it. Instead of letting that stand, Arthur delivers a litany of profanity on multiple threads. And Arthur says I'm 'stirring the pot'?

That is great Nicky wants "elevating Babble to a higher level"?. But how many times have you been suspended for "elevating Babble to a higher level"? So much for Nicky wanting to "elevating Babble to a higher level"?

Yet I myself have never been suspened or reprimanded. I follow all the rules, and never ONCE been taken to task by the moderators. And I have NEVER attacked anyone personally on this board as Sean in Ottawa says in this link below.

http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551

And you say you are the one who is "elevating Babble to a higher level" by getting suspended for personal attacks? It will be great if both Arthur & Nicky want to ignore me. Because all they do attack others personally and quite viciously who don't drink the kool-aid. That doesn't realy add anything to the discussion here on rabble with the insults that are thrown by these two. And you say I'm the problem here on rabble?

Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. He is a role model who shows you can agree to disagree respectfully WITHOUT personal attacks. But then again Nicky and Arthur Cramer ain't no Sean in Ottawa.

bekayne

JeffWells wrote:

FWIW, here is some polling news.

From Innovative Research Group: an online survey of 2,833 between July 24 and July 30:

Actually, it's the same poll they released last Monday:

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/03/handicapping-election-cons...

From July 24 to 30, Innovative Research Group Inc. conducted an online survey of 2,833 Canadians to explore the underlying dimensions of Canada’s impending election.  Like most pollsters, we show the NDP currently in the lead with 33.7 per cent of the decided vote, the Conservatives second at 29.3 per cent and the Liberals third at 25.8 per cent.

MegB

terrytowel wrote:

nicky wrote:

I am therefore going to sign a pleadge that for the balance of the election campaign I will ignore TerryT...l. For the sake of elevating Babble to a higher level I urge you all to do likewise. 

It is interesting that Nicky & Arthur are attacking me because I pointed out profanity should NOT be used on this board. Which are the rules. Now you are attacking me for suggesting we FOLLOW the rules on rabble?

Personal attacks are not accepted behaviours on babble, so nicky and AC lay off. Profanity, on the other hand, is allowed when not used in a personal attack.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

OK Meg, that's fair, even though TT is being deliberately provocative. I'l take your advice. I'm not going to respond to him anymore. He wins. He's on my ignore list now. As is said, if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. I'd suggest everyone posting here consider this.

Stockholm

This has really degenerated into the dullest most uninformative thread i have ever seen on babble...count me out!

terrytowel

MegB wrote:

Personal attacks are not accepted behaviours on babble, so nicky and AC lay off. Profanity, on the other hand, is allowed when not used in a personal attack.

Thanks you MegB for clarifying the rules. That was all I had asked before being viciously attacked by Nicky and AC. All for the suggestion we follow the rules by avoiding profanity on this board. That DOES NOT warrant a vicious attack like that.

Arthur Cramer wrote:

OK Meg, that's fair, even though TT is being deliberately provocative. I'l take your advice. I'm not going to respond to him anymore. He wins. He's on my ignore list now. As is said, if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. I'd suggest everyone posting here consider this.

Now Arthur is playing the victim like I FORCED him to viciously attack me. Saying it was my being "provocative" that caused him to lash out. That is like saying I walked down the street without a shirt, and invited other guys to grope me.

Like you take NO responsibility? Blaming everyone else for your own actions?

So I'm holding both AC & Nicky to their word. Anytime they respond to something I saw, I will bring up this posting. I hope AC & Nicky keep their word and IGNORE me. That way the less personal attacks around here the better for EVERYONE.

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

This has really degenerated into the dullest most uninformative thread i have ever seen on babble...count me out!

Just avoid profanity and we won't have this problem.

NorthReport

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Latest polling details:

Aug 10 '15

NDP - 34%

Cons - 29%

Libs - 26%

New Democrats making gains in 45 Liberal Party two-way races, says pollster Lyle

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains...

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Aug 8 '15 

Popular Vote - BC

NDP / 37%

Cons / 23%

Libs / 26%

Grn / 5% 

-------------------

 

Best Prime Minister - BC

Mulcair / 34%

Harper / 21%

Trudeau / 27%

May / 2%

------------

 

Election Winner - BC

NDP / 37%

Cons / 28%

Libs / 24%

Grns / 2%

--------------------------------- 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative Research / 34% / 29% / 26%  

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------

 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

------------

 

Regionals  AC- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

 

Regionals Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

 

Best Prime Minister Polling BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

-----------------------------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

10,100

 

NorthReport

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Latest polling details:

Aug 10 '15

NDP - 34%

Cons - 29%

Libs - 26%

New Democrats making gains in 45 Liberal Party two-way races, says pollster Lyle

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains...

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Aug 8 '15 

Popular Vote - BC

NDP / 37%

Cons / 23%

Libs / 26%

Grn / 5% 

-------------------

 

Best Prime Minister - BC

Mulcair / 34%

Harper / 21%

Trudeau / 27%

May / 2%

------------

 

Election Winner - BC

NDP / 37%

Cons / 28%

Libs / 24%

Grns / 2%

--------------------------------- 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative Research / 34% / 29% / 26%  

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------

 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

------------

 

Regionals  AC- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

 

Regionals Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

 

Best Prime Minister Polling BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

-----------------------------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

10,100

josh

Innovative Research pointed out that that “the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.”

Hmmm.

NorthReport

Sounds about as reliable as any poll. Laughing

josh wrote:

Innovative Research pointed out that that “the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.”

Hmmm.

NorthReport

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:


Aug 3 '15

Globe and Mail Poll Tracker

If the election happened today, there is a ...

61% chance that the Conservatives get the most seats

40% chance that the NDP gets the most seats

0% chance that the Liberals gets the most seats

2% chance that the Green party gets more than one seat

1% chance that the gap between first and third party is less than 10 seats

10% chance that the Bloc regains official party status (more than 12 seats)

-----------------------------------


Aug 10 '15

NDP - 34%

Cons - 29%

Libs - 26%

New Democrats making gains in 45 Liberal Party two-way races, says pollster Lyle

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains...

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Aug 8 '15 

Popular Vote - BC

NDP / 37%

Cons / 23%

Libs / 26%

Grn / 5% 

-------------------

 

Best Prime Minister - BC

Mulcair / 34%

Harper / 21%

Trudeau / 27%

May / 2%

------------

 

Election Winner - BC

NDP / 37%

Cons / 28%

Libs / 24%

Grns / 2%

--------------------------------- 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative Research / 34% / 29% / 26%  

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------

 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

------------

 

Regionals  AC- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

 

Regionals Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

 

Best Prime Minister Polling BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

-----------------------------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

10,100

 

NorthReport

Bruce Anderson of Abacus Data, National Newswatch, etc, part of the Liberal media complex has never met a Liberal he wasn't in love with it seems.  Laughing  

bekayne

Like I said earlier, the "new" poll from Innovative Research is actually last week's poll

quizzical

question: if  you can't figure out the margin of error because its on line polling and random sampling can't be for sure then where does Angus Reids polling data fit in?

NorthReport

quizzical,

When the NDP was behind in the polls NDPers didn't like the polls and whined about the methodology. Now the NDP are in 1st place, third place parties are now whining about the methodology. Go figure!  Laughing

 

But Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid over the past 2 elections have been the most accurate federal pollsters when a process to control herding is taken into account.

josh
mark_alfred

Seems the NDP have gone down a bit in Ontario and the prairies.  Still strong in BC and Quebec, though.

bekayne

An actual poll in the polling thread! You don't say!

bekayne

The Conservatives drop 3% in one week for "Party Consider to Vote For" in a 4 week rolling poll

nicky

This o is of course the rolling Nanos poll spread over 4 weeks with  250 polled every week.

It is of limited value in assessing the current lie of the land, especially because only one day of polling occurred after the debate.

Even so, there is a fractional improvemnt for the NDP over the previous week, up 0.3 whereas the Cons are down 0.3 and the Liberals down 0.7

NorthReport

Nanos - Jul 7 '15

Party / Jul 31 / Aug 7 / Change

NDP / 30% / 30% / Unchanged

Cons 32% / 31% / Down 1%

Libs / 29% / 29%/ Unchanged

josh

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