Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

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NorthReport

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

 

Aug 10 '15

Ipsos Reid

N / 33%

C / 31%

L / 28%

BQ / 4%

Grns / 4%

Leaders’ debate, attack ads and a week of campaigning have little effect on voters, Ipsos poll shows

http://globalnews.ca/news/2158996/leaders-debate-attack-ads-and-a-week-o...

-------------------

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31% / Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29%

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

--------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

 

Best Prime Minister Polling BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

-----------------------------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

 

NorthReport

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

 

Aug 10 '15

Ipsos Reid

N / 33%

C / 31%

L / 28%

BQ / 4%

Grns / 4%

Leaders’ debate, attack ads and a week of campaigning have little effect on voters, Ipsos poll shows

http://globalnews.ca/news/2158996/leaders-debate-attack-ads-and-a-week-o...

-------------------

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31% / Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29%

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

--------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

 

Best Prime Minister Polling BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

-----------------------------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

10,900

NorthReport

The problem with political polls

Faced with new challenges in polling, pollsters have changed their methodology by various degrees in recent years. The days of pure randomness based on telephone numbers – the basis of polling for decades – are long gone. None of this is to say that political polling is pointless or not valuable in some way. Top pollsters such as Ipsos-Reid, Insights West, Angus Reid, Ekos and Nanos provide powerful insights into what’s “trending” in public opinion.

They have uniformly picked up on what appears to be significant growth in support for the NDP nationally, and a decline in Liberal support, with the Conservatives holding fairly steady. But going much beyond those generalizations – such as making a big fuss when a party’s apparent support goes from 33 per cent to, say, 35 per cent in subsequent polls – is a fool’s errand. Yet too many people continue to do just that.

http://www.newwestrecord.ca/opinion/columns/the-problem-with-political-p...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Move Over May and Trudeau, BC is NDP-Conservative Battleground

Pressure not to 'split' anti-Harper vote will hurt Greens and Liberals here.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/08/11/BC-NDP-Conservative-Battleground/

quizzical

Harper was and is busy throwing federal money around in marginal spread ridings. my riding changes this year and they desperately want to keep hinterland votes in the bag as the north part of this new riding is not for sure for them. we got a great deal of fed money first part of July.

NorthReport

+

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Move Over May and Trudeau, BC is NDP-Conservative Battleground

Pressure not to 'split' anti-Harper vote will hurt Greens and Liberals here.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/08/11/BC-NDP-Conservative-Battleground/

Bill Tieleman, of course.

NorthReport

d'accord.

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  2h2 hours ago

Any QC poll reporting that doesn’t break out francos is a half-truth [at best] @camrclark

Embedded image permalink

 

nicky
adma

 

A drop of five points, yes; but that previous poll always seemed to me an outlier.  What's really interesting is that the Cons haven't budged a bit...

terrytowel

The new numbers, provided to Global News by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP), see the NDP winning 128 seats, Harper and the Conservatives at 121 and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 86, if an election were held today.

“Public opinion isn’t always changing dramatically. Now we have had two months where things haven’t changed,” said Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. “It’s really a pick in between the NDP and the Conservatives in terms of seats.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/2162903/ndp-lead-continues-to-hold-across-cana...

As I had said MONTHS ago. For Justin Trudeau and the Liberals "IT'S OVER!"

Care to agree now Sean in Ottawa?

josh

Nothing is over till it's over.

terrytowel

josh wrote:

Nothing is over till it's over.

Not according to Barry Kay

Now we have had two months where things haven’t changed,” said Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. “It’s really a pick in between the NDP and the Conservatives in terms of seats.”

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

josh wrote:

Nothing is over till it's over.

People should keep this well in mind. We've got 2 months to go and A LOT can happen in politics in that time.

terrytowel

alan smithee wrote:

josh wrote:

Nothing is over till it's over.

People should keep this well in mind. We've got 2 months to go and A LOT can happen in politics in that time.

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

terrytowel wrote:

[

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

Oh sorry..I didn't notice that Barry Kay said that. My bad.

terrytowel

alan smithee wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

[

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

Oh sorry..I didn't notice that Barry Kay said that. My bad.

No problem, it is morning after all.

mark_alfred

terrytowel wrote:

The new numbers, provided to Global News by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP), see the NDP winning 128 seats, Harper and the Conservatives at 121 and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 86, if an election were held today.

“Public opinion isn’t always changing dramatically. Now we have had two months where things haven’t changed,” said Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. “It’s really a pick in between the NDP and the Conservatives in terms of seats.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/2162903/ndp-lead-continues-to-hold-across-cana...

Stupid Ontario needs to drop the Cons and Libs and go NDP.  BC and Quebec have it right.  It's just stupid Ontario holding things back.

bekayne

alan smithee wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

[

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

Oh sorry..I didn't notice that Barry Kay said that. My bad.

It's not over until Barry Kay says it's over

jjuares

A few months ago some pundits were saying it was a Lib/ Con fight with the NDP playing a marginal role. Now we are suppose to believe it is a NDP/ Con fight with the Liberals playing a marginal role. This election is full of regional fights with all the parties mattering. How much each party matters will ebb and flow but even the current numbers make the Libs kingmakers.

socialdemocrati...

The polls might start moving again in September. There's rarely any movement during the summer months.

If anything was gonna move the polls in the summer, it would have been the debate. But the debates were dull and uneventful.

August is more like a pre-season. You're seeing the teams test out their pitch to voters. The question is who is going to have the best pitch come September.

Stockholm

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories lose a couple of points in the next few polls just because of the saturation publicity around the Nigel Wright testimony etc... and how it reminds people of how totally unethical Harper's and his flunkies are.

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

The polls might start moving again in September. There's rarely any movement during the summer months.

If anything was gonna move the polls in the summer, it would have been the debate. But the debates were dull and uneventful.

August is more like a pre-season. You're seeing the teams test out their pitch to voters. The question is who is going to have the best pitch come September.

May I remind people that everyone had this same narrative one year ago in the Toronto Mayor race. When Olivia Chow slipped to third. Every poo-pooed her drop in support saying the exact same thing. It's summer, no one is paying attention, come September is when people will make up their minds.

But the only numbers that changed were NOT Chow's but Doug Ford. He in fact closed the gap to Tory and almost won the election.

Chow stayed third and remained third no matter what she did. I suspect the same will happen to the Liberals.

Which is why I say "IT'S OVER!" for the Liberals. 8 weeks is not enough time to turn things around.

socialdemocrati...

The aggregators have the NDP around 33.5%. To get to a majority, they'd need around 6.5% more.

The Liberals are polling around 27%. Which is actually 8% more than they had in 2011.

If the Liberals crater to Ignatieff levels, the NDP will get to a majority, if not very close to it.

 

terrytowel

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

The aggregators have the NDP around 33.5%. To get to a majority, they'd need around 6.5% more.

The Liberals are polling around 27%. Which is actually 8% more than they had in 2011.

If the Liberals crater to Ignatieff levels, the NDP will get to a majority, if not very close to it.

Susan Delacourt was on Power Play yesterday and she had just come from canvassing with Jennifer Hollet of the NDP.

She said what voters told Hollet over and over and over again was that they planned on voting ABC - Anybody But Conservative. That whoever is the party best to knock off Harper will get their vote.

If that is the case then watch for the NDP numbers to go up and the Liberals to go down.

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories lose a couple of points in the next few polls just because of the saturation publicity around the Nigel Wright testimony etc... and how it reminds people of how totally unethical Harper's and his flunkies are.

And they'll forget by election day.

Very Far Away

I think this is a good source for all the polls and seat projections:

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

They update it regularly.

NorthReport

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

 

Forum - Aug 10 '15

Federal NDP maintain healthy lead

N / 34%

C / 28%

L / 27%

B / 6%

G / 4%

 

Best Prime Minister 

Mulcair / 28%

Harper / 25%

Trudeau / 23%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/351/headed-for-slim-majority/

Read more at: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/351/headed-for-slim-majority/
Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.


 

Aug 10 '15

Ipsos Reid

N / 33%

C / 31%

L / 28%

BQ / 4%

Grns / 4%

Leaders’ debate, attack ads and a week of campaigning have little effect on voters, Ipsos poll shows

http://globalnews.ca/news/2158996/leaders-debate-attack-ads-and-a-week-o...

-------------------

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4%

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31% / Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29%

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

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5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

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Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

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Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

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Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

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Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

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Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

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Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

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8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

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9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

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11,800

mark_alfred

In looking at the CBC poll tracker, I notice that overall the Libs have gone up a small bit, the NDP have gone down a small bit, and the CPC have gone down a bigger bit (still not by a huge amount, though).   There are differences in regions.  The NDP have gone up in Alberta and Quebec, and the Libs and Cons down in these regions (though the changes are quite small), the Libs are up in Atlantic Canada, BC, and Ontario, and the NDP are down in these regions (again, very small amount), whereas Cons are same in BC and down in Ontario.  The Cons are up in Sask&Manitoba and the Libs and NDP are down here.  Note, I'm not talking about ranking, just about change.  Ranking is the same as always:  Cons #1 in Ont (though this is almost a three-way tie now) and Alberta and the Prairies, Libs #1 in the Atlantic, NDP #1 in BC and Quebec.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

bekayne wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories lose a couple of points in the next few polls just because of the saturation publicity around the Nigel Wright testimony etc... and how it reminds people of how totally unethical Harper's and his flunkies are.

And they'll forget by election day.

I don't think it's so much that people will forget about the Conservatives unethical behaviour so much as that when the chips are down, a large majority of mortgage payers will vote for the party whose tax and benefit plan they think will help them the most to continue making their mortage payments.

josh
bekayne

New Mainstreet poll:

Con 31// NDP 30// Lib 29

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/2015/08/14/three-way-race/

socialdemocrati...

Glad to see Mainstreet fixing their method. Last time they had the Cons with a double digit lead, which basically no one agreed with, and everyone ignored. They have some way to recover any credibility.

Stockholm

Mainstreet's Quebec numbers look very fishy.

Ipsos has the Liberals at 18% in Quebec, Forum has them at 19%, Ekos has them at 20% and Maisntreet says 30%.

"One of these polls is not like the others. One of these polls doesn't belong. If you guess which poll is not like the others. THEN YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!" 

mark_alfred

Unless they're right and the others are "herding" ....I'm not sure what herding actually means, but apparently it's a criticism leveled at pollsters that are too similar to one another.

socialdemocrati...

I usually see people talk about herding for voters: when voters see the party narrowing into a two-way race, they abandon the third place choice. Or when they see a winner, a lot of people want to join "the winning team".

But herding might happen with the pollsters too. I'm still disappointed that most pollsters have these "likely voter" screens that are super secretive, and they also don't share their raw data. So it's possible they all sculpt their likely voter screens so that their results are close to each other.

Misfit Misfit's picture

MAINSTREET and QUEBEC: They could have contacted voters exclusively in Montreal where the Liberal support is much stronger.

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Unless they're right and the others are "herding" ....I'm not sure what herding actually means, but apparently it's a criticism leveled at pollsters that are too similar to one another.

It's possible I am wrong, but I believe what NR refers to as "herding" is when polling companies skew numbers to favor an outcome. They are hoping that saying it is so will help make it happen. The polling companies "herd" voters. In a three-way race like this one a few percentage points makes a big difference. Some people will vote strategically, others will be swayed by wanting to support the "winning" team.

So in this case Mainstream could be accused of favoring the Liberals to sway public opinion. I'm not convinced that it's deliberate but they are obviously way off unless we are going to accuse 3 actually mainstream polling companies of favoring the NDP for some completely inexplicable reason. Even allowing for a huge margin of error the NDP are well ahead in Quebec.

Stockholm

I'm not sure i buy the herding theor - but those who put it forward say it usually only happens at the very end of a campaign when no pollster wants to be a total outlier and be embarrassed by the results on election day. The theiry is that herding does NOT happen this far out from election day

JKR

Pondering wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

Unless they're right and the others are "herding" ....I'm not sure what herding actually means, but apparently it's a criticism leveled at pollsters that are too similar to one another.

It's possible I am wrong, but I believe what NR refers to as "herding" is when polling companies skew numbers to favor an outcome. They are hoping that saying it is so will help make it happen. 

NR's definition of "herding" is very different from the idea of herding proposed by statisticians like Nate Silver. Silver describes "herding" as:  "the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another, especially toward the end of a campaign. What’s wrong with the polls agreeing with one another? The problem is that it’s sometimes a case of the blind leading the blind."

Northern-54

There is a tendency for polling companies to care more about whether their polls are accurate at the end of the campaign because that is often the primary way of judging a polling firm's competence, comparing their predictions with the actual results. 

Polling companies also care about making money (I don't view that as a bad thing).  They want to continue their relationship with paying clients.  Sometimes, those paying clients are interested in particular questions being asked.  Those questions, particularly when asked before the "vote intent" question can impact on the results.  I always like to read the questions first before determining the likelihood of the poll's accuracy.  For example, if there is a series of questions about "Security" prior to the vote intent question, then the Conservative vote might be over-estimated or if there is a series of questions about the Duffy Trial prior to the vote intent question, then the NDP and Liberal vote might be over-estimated.  Sampling bias can also impact on that, either intentional or related to costs.

Private polls often have questions that test the impact of advertising of particular issues.  These polls are usually not published.  While the results are not accurate, they may be predictive of future polls.  Still, I see lots of questions in Forum and Ekos polls that relate to this.  When they ask about attitudes towards a coalition or cooperation between the Liberals and the NDP, it predictably will make the NDP/Liberal voters report they are less committed than Conservative supporters (whose commitment might be over-stated as many Conservatives believe that this is against democracy, their fear being that the Conservatives may be denied government even when they win the most seats).  I believe that these polls show that whichever party, the Liberals or the NDP, has a clear advantage in the polls just prior to the election date may experience a sharp swing from the other party (as well as the Greens and Bloc) during the last week of the campaign.  It points out the need for a final "drop" pamphlet that puts forward the idea of a "strategic" vote during the last couple of days of the campaign.   I believe that in an election like this one this final pamphlet may be more important than a strong E-Day operation for the NDP.

 

NorthReport

What per cent of pop vote does NDP need for form a majorit government?

NorthReport

Leger marketing
N / 33%
C / 27%
L / 28%

nicky
Doug Woodard

NorthReport wrote:
What per cent of pop vote does NDP need for form a majorit government?

In our FPTP system a lot depends on how "efficient" a party's vote is. For example, a party that gets just enough votes to win in many ridings will win more seats than one which wins a lot of its ridings with overwhelming vote majorities.

Also a lot depends on to what degree the other parties split the vote.

Regarding polling, a party whose supporters can be relied on to come out and vote (Conservatives in the past) will win a higher percentage of the actual vote and more seats all other things being equal, than one (NDP, Greens) which polls best among say young eligible voters, who don't typically turn out in large numbers. 

 

Some recent majority Federal governments:

Year....Party....Vote%......Govt. seats

1988....Con.....43.02........169/295 

1993....Lib......41.24.........177/295

1997....Lib......38.46.........155/301

2000....Lib......40.85.........172/301

2011....Con.....39.63........166/308

josh

NorthReport wrote:
What per cent of pop vote does NDP need for form a majorit government?

I'd guess 38

NorthReport

So with the NDP hovering around 33-34% Mulcair is not far from winning a majority government

I wonder what the staying power of the Duffy trial will have on the minds of the voters

The only way we are going to begin to reverse some the damage Harper has done is with a majority NDP government

We really have to hand it to Mulcair as it appears even with all the resources Harper has at his disposal he just might have finally meet his match

It has been a long, long almost 10 years now of Republican er....Conservative government

Doug Woodard

josh wrote:
NorthReport wrote:
What per cent of pop vote does NDP need for form a majorit government?

I'd guess 38

I think the NDP will need 39% for a majority. A lot will hang on whether the NDP moves into the lead in Ontario, preferably with a margin over the Conservatives and Liberals which stay fairly close to each other.

JeffWells

Doug Woodard wrote:

I think the NDP will need 39% for a majority. A lot will hang on whether the NDP moves into the lead in Ontario, preferably with a margin over the Conservatives and Liberals which stay fairly close to each other.

 

I think we also need to factor in the disproportionate disenfranchisement of NDP supporters by the rewriting of election rules. What is it going to cost the NDP in lost votes? 1%? More?

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